This document is a transcript from a presentation by Chunka Mui on mastering the 4th Industrial Revolution. The presentation discusses how emerging technologies are progressing exponentially according to the "Laws of Zero" and disrupting industries. It encourages attendees to embrace these changes by making a "Third List" of opportunities, inventing desirable futures through "Future Histories", and using these techniques to build a future we can proudly leave to our children. The document contains tips on strategic planning far into the future and harnessing new technologies to address societal needs like climate change, healthcare, and more.

1. © 2019 | Chunka Mui
Mastering the 4th Industrial Revolution
Zoom Work Happy Series
July 20, 2023
Chunka Mui
chunka.mui@gmail.com
www.chunkamui.com

2. © 2023 | Chunka Mui

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Strategy Technology
Innovation
Advantage
Organizational Focus

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“A futurist?
Well, I hope you adults
don’t mess mine up.”
Zoe’s Question

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Poll
Do you think that we “adults” are in
danger of messing up our children’s
future?
o Yes
o No

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How can we
“adults” build a
future we can
proudly leave to
our kids?

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Strategy Technology
Innovation
Advantage
Organizational
Competitive
Advantage
Organizational
Purpose
Societal
Needs
Future
Perfect
Societal Focus
The Biggest Personal and Professional
Opportunity of Our Lifetimes

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“The best way
to predict the future
is to invent it.”
— Alan Kay

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3 Lessons

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Make
a Third List

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Daily Weekly

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Daily Weekly

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Daily Weekly “Third List”

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Daily Weekly Third List
Chicago
• O’Hare
expansion
• Underfunded
Pensions
• Universal
preschool
• Infrastructure
• Sustainability

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Chicago River Walk

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1999

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Daily Weekly “Third List”
Inventing the Future
Make a Third List

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Embrace
the Laws of Zero

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7 Laws of Zero
Computing Networks
Water Energy
Genomics
Transportation
Information
The Building Blocks

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Exponential Increases in Capability
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Incremental
Change
Time
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies

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Driving Relative Cost to Zero
Relative Cost
of Technology
Time
Cost

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Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero
Put That Supercomputer in Your Pocket
Incremental
Change
Zero to 6.25B Users
In <20 years
$1.14T
Revenue
(2021)
Source: Statistica, 2022
Time

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Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero
Enables and Accelerates Generative AI
Incremental
Change
Time
• Trillions of training data tokens
• Trillions of model parameters
• 10,000 GPUs
• Resources in exaflops (10^18)
• 100m users in 2 months
• 1.6 Billion visits (June)

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Driving Innovation and Disruption
in Every Industry
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Time

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Beyond Digital: Genomics
“Reading and Editing the Language of Life”
Last 20 Years
One Million Times
Faster
Cheaper
Genomics

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Healthcare Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Acute Care
Personalized
Health Care
Time

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Price of Solar Modules Since 1976
Source: Max Roser
99.6%

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Li-ion Batteries since 2008
Source: US DoE
89%

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Energy Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Fossil
Fuels
Time
Renewables
Energy

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Transportation Industry
Disruption

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Poll
Which technology ”building blocks” will have the
most impact on your industry? (Multiple choice)
o Computing (including cloud and quantum)
o Communications
o Information (including AI and Big Data)
o Genomics
o Water
o Energy
o Transportation

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The Building Blocks
are not
the Buildings

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Pathetic Futures
Are Easy To Imagine
Climate
Disaster
Big Brother
Numbed by
Technology
Nuclear
Doomsday
Inequity and
Revolution

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Laws of Zero
Enable Extraordinary Opportunities…
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Incremental
Change
… for us “adults” to
build a future we
can proudly leave
to our kids.

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Write Your
Future History

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“We choose
to go to the
moon.”
Future Histories
Harness the Power of Narratives

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Future Histories
• An ambitious yet attainable scenario by a specific date
• Does not predict the future; rather, describes the desired future
• Far enough out to not worry about short-term noise, constraints
and implementation details (yet)
• Near enough to allow realistic estimates of what will likely be
technologically possible
• Working backwards to today, one can chart the possible paths to
that future
• Serves to “organize and measure the best of our energies and
skills” to build that future — starting today

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Next Quarter
Next year
Now
Typical Planning Window

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Future
Date
Now
Planning Window
If you don’t know
where you’re going,
you might not get
there.

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Given the building blocks at
our disposal, what would be
ridiculous not to have?
Now Future
Date

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Now
Planning Window
Future
Date

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Now
Working backwards from the
future, what are key milestones
for success?
Planning Window
Future
Date

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Many Moonshots Harder Than Sending
Humans to the Moon

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Many Moonshots Harder Than Sending
Humans to the Moon

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Climate
2050
It’d be ridiculous if we didn’t
significantly slow global warming
and mitigate the worse effects of
climate change.

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Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Addressing Climate Change
Climate
Disruption
Time
Capability
Mitigation
and
Resilience

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Electricity
27%
Industry
31%
Agriculture
19%
Transportation
16%
Shelter
7%
Ligh
t
Dut
y
Vehi
cles
(Car
s,
Mot
orcy
cl…
Hea
vy
Dut
y
Truc
ks,
Plan
es
and
Ship
s
10-12%
Total
Emissions
Global Carbon Emissions

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Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Laws of Zero Enable…
Gas Powered
Cars
Time
Zero Emission
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Or Better

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ALL EV
(or better)
2050
Now
Mostly Gas
Given Laws of Zero, it
would be ridiculous
not to have

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ALL EV
(or better)
2050
Now
EVs
ONLY
New
2035
Mostly Gas

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Automotive Industry Disruption
Emerging
Technologies
Exponential
Progression
of Technology
Capability
Disruptive
Technologies
Gas Powered
Cars
Time
Zero Emission
Electric Vehicles
(EVs)
Or Better

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0
20
40
60
80
100
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
New Car Sales
Market Share Cross Over
EVs
(or Better)
Gas Powered
Cars
%

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Advantage
Societal
Needs
55.2 56.7 70.4
224.3
406.6
934.6
0
600
1,200
($B)
Markets Value Forward Revenue
Source: Google Finance, 7/19/2023
Purpose

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Mitigating Climate Change
Create Similar Opportunities in Every Industry
Electricity
27%
Industry
31%
Agriculture
19%
Transportation
16%
Shelter
7%

57. © 2023 | Chunka Mui
Similar Opportunities for Disruptions or
“Doing Well By Doing Good” Across Many Societal Needs
Competitive
Advantage
Org
Purpose
Societal
Needs
Future
Perfect

58. © 2023 | Chunka Mui
The Future History of Energy
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have clean
electricity available to everyone,
everywhere, in abundant and
affordable quantities.

59. © 2023 | Chunka Mui
The Future History of Health Care
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have terrific
health care available to everyone at
an affordable cost, providing longer,
more active lives.

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The Future History of Transportation
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have
inexpensive, widely available
access to transportation.

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The Future History of Infrastructure
2050
It’d be ridiculous not to have robust
infrastructure that is resilient in the
face of man-made and natural
threats.

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The Future History of Trust
2050
It’d be ridiculous if we couldn’t (mostly)
guarantee trust in our interactions with
each other, with government, with
organizations, and with devices in the
cloud.

63. © 2023 | Chunka Mui
Future Histories
• Ambitious yet attainable goal in a specific
timeframe
• Offers a narrative of success in the target future
timeframe
• Serves to organize and measure energies and
skills around waypoints connecting that future
back to today

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How might the Laws of Zero transform your
purpose… and your career?
How might you help write the future history of
your industry?
What should be on your Third List?
3 Questions

65. © 2023 | Chunka Mui
Thank You!
chunka.mui@gmail.com
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