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THE BRONZE AGE
2.0
Rationalizing the 3D Universe
Policy, Context and Strategy
in an Emerging Industrial Sector
Christopher R. O’Dea
Inside 3D Printing, April 23, 2013
Photo: “Molten Bronze in DMSE Foundry“
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Department of Materials Science and Engineering
Industrial Opportunity Driving
Rationalization
• Companies:
• Ex One
• Arcam
• ProtoLabs
• Information providers/analysts
• Lux Capital
• MIT Technology Review
O'Dea & Associates 2
The Digital Blacksmith
O'Dea & Associates 3
3D and Industrial Manufacturing
…”A key cause of death”
Daniel Holland, Morningstar
In Investors Business Daily online, February 7, 2013
O'Dea & Associates 4
Fundamental Questions
• Why Metal?
• Industrial or Consumer?
• Complement or Substitute?
• Material or Machine?
• Customer Service or Customer Capture?
• Innovation or Disruption?
• Can National Policy Influence Global Trends?
O'Dea & Associates 5
How Investors Look at Opportunity
• It has to be a business
• End-user clearly defined
• Value proposition defined and sustainable
• Revenue and profit models clear
• Excitement is expected – hype is a red flag
• Core requirements:
• Addressable markets:
• Industrials
• Professionals
• Consumers
• Company offerings:
• Printers
• Services
• Materials
O'Dea & Associates 6
Downstream from Technology
O'Dea & Associates 7
Business Model Innovation
O'Dea & Associates 8
XONE Spotlights Metal
• Shines the spotlight on industrial metals
• Increases transparency and focus in AM sector
• Manufacturing/OEM base: Ford, Boeing, BMW, Cat
• EXMAL
• Leading edge materials lab
• Certify one new material every six months/ 9-24 mo. pipeline
• 12 industrial materials in process
• Delivery system:
• M-Flex machine; unveiled at IMTS 2012 Chicago
• Industrial-grade metal/ceramics; 10X speed increase
• Increasing PSC from 4Q goal; 45% of revenue
O'Dea & Associates 9
Arcam’s Leg Up – Titanium Hips
Business
• Access medical contract
manufacturing expertise:
• Feb. 2013 alliance
• Option to acquire DiSanto
• 2012 MDF, Oak Ridge
• Application development
• Aerospace exclusives
• Fraunhofer Dresden
• Tapping US markets:
• OMTEC Chicago, June 2013
Science
• Fully-dense metal
• Electron beams vs. Laser
• Orthopedic implants
• 30,000+ implanted
• EU 2007, USA 2010
• Serves Ortho and Spinal
implant clients
• Validated powder supply chains
• Powder handling/safety
O'Dea & Associates 10
Why is this
man not
smiling?
Manufacturer: 3D printers
Founded: 1997
CEO: Magnus René
Headquarters: Mölndal
Number of employees: 53
Turnover: 139 million
(2012)
Profit: 15 million (2012)
Largest single shareholder:
Industrial Development
Fund, owns 25 percent
(Data & Photo: it24.idg.se)
“Duktiga människor och uthållighet”
O'Dea & Associates 11
Engineering Tool-Neutral Value
BDTG.DE Bertrandt
• Digital engineering unit
• Strong Auto and Aero
• Breaks out 3D printing
• Near 30% ROE
• 30% institutional owned
• Increasing institutional base:
• Net new holders
• Net increased positions
PRLB Proto Labs
• Machined and IM parts
• $80 billion global market
• Can 3D players challenge?
• Big Market: 3 mil. CAD
• 30% Revenue, 50% ROIC,
60% GM
• Speed thru Software
• Tool Neutral
• Brand power:
• Integrated, reliable service
• Speed, pricing, convenience
O'Dea & Associates 12
Consumers: “Odds are against You”
• Will consumers care that products are made by 3D printing?
• Most will not
• People care about good value
• People care that the product performs as advertised
• Will consumers really print a refrigerator handle?
“Even if you have a 3D printer at home, it will not offer the right material, color, surface finish,
texture, strength properties, and build volume to meet your needs.”
• More likely outcome: service bureaus, online outlets
• Other issues:
• Lack of user-friendly design software
• Increasing competition
• Potential commoditization
Terry Wohlers, Seeking Alpha, February 26, 2013/Morningstar
O'Dea & Associates 13
Policy Drivers - EU
• Additive Manufacturing Alliance integrates the research of
Germany's 11 scientific and engineering institutes
• Engineering, materials, technology and quality
• Industrial applications and projects
• Focus Industries:
• Automotive, aerospace, bio-medicine and microsystems.
• National and international research projects
• The Alliance in Action:
O'Dea & Associates 14
Policy Drivers - US
• NAMII – can the U.S. catch up?
• POTUS highlighted AM in State of the Union
• NAMII Progress
• First Project Call in November; Defense Manufacturing Conference
• $4.5 million awarded to initial 7 projects across AM spectrum;
winners responsible for $5 million matching funds.
• Still a “pilot” for Manufacturing Institute Network; short-term focus
on market impact within several months.
• NCDMM
• Driving NAMII, blueprinting the Institutes with defense focus?
O'Dea & Associates 15
“AAM” – A New Industrial Sector
• Auto
• Aero
• Medical
• Combined $8.4 billion by 2025 (Lux Capital projection) tracks
Wohlers forecast of $6.5 billion by 2019.
• Dental revolution rolling along
• Surgical applications increasing
• Organ research underway
• Lighter, stronger materials – cabins, airframes, seating
O'Dea & Associates 16
3D Market Segmentation
O'Dea & Associates 17
What’s Ahead? Creative Disruption
• Production in 12 plants in
8 countries
• Sales in 83 countries
• Net sales MSEK 7,081
(2011)
• >110 employees
dedicated to R&D
• 700 patents
• Output devices
• Technology platform
• Knowledge network
• DirectSpare links to EU
• Leverage powder lead
• Expand offering/service
O'Dea & Associates 18
Creative Disruption
• Sweden’s industrial elite shake up AM
• Höganäs - fcubic deal reverses the “razor blades” play
• Powder maker’s challenge to 3D machines raises stakes
• Lindengruppen bid creates strategic threat in metals
• Private capital funds long-term approach and R&D
O'Dea & Associates 19
Scandinavian Designs
O'Dea & Associates 20
THANK YOU

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Christopher O'Dea Bronze Age 2.0

  • 1. THE BRONZE AGE 2.0 Rationalizing the 3D Universe Policy, Context and Strategy in an Emerging Industrial Sector Christopher R. O’Dea Inside 3D Printing, April 23, 2013 Photo: “Molten Bronze in DMSE Foundry“ Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Department of Materials Science and Engineering
  • 2. Industrial Opportunity Driving Rationalization • Companies: • Ex One • Arcam • ProtoLabs • Information providers/analysts • Lux Capital • MIT Technology Review O'Dea & Associates 2
  • 4. 3D and Industrial Manufacturing …”A key cause of death” Daniel Holland, Morningstar In Investors Business Daily online, February 7, 2013 O'Dea & Associates 4
  • 5. Fundamental Questions • Why Metal? • Industrial or Consumer? • Complement or Substitute? • Material or Machine? • Customer Service or Customer Capture? • Innovation or Disruption? • Can National Policy Influence Global Trends? O'Dea & Associates 5
  • 6. How Investors Look at Opportunity • It has to be a business • End-user clearly defined • Value proposition defined and sustainable • Revenue and profit models clear • Excitement is expected – hype is a red flag • Core requirements: • Addressable markets: • Industrials • Professionals • Consumers • Company offerings: • Printers • Services • Materials O'Dea & Associates 6
  • 9. XONE Spotlights Metal • Shines the spotlight on industrial metals • Increases transparency and focus in AM sector • Manufacturing/OEM base: Ford, Boeing, BMW, Cat • EXMAL • Leading edge materials lab • Certify one new material every six months/ 9-24 mo. pipeline • 12 industrial materials in process • Delivery system: • M-Flex machine; unveiled at IMTS 2012 Chicago • Industrial-grade metal/ceramics; 10X speed increase • Increasing PSC from 4Q goal; 45% of revenue O'Dea & Associates 9
  • 10. Arcam’s Leg Up – Titanium Hips Business • Access medical contract manufacturing expertise: • Feb. 2013 alliance • Option to acquire DiSanto • 2012 MDF, Oak Ridge • Application development • Aerospace exclusives • Fraunhofer Dresden • Tapping US markets: • OMTEC Chicago, June 2013 Science • Fully-dense metal • Electron beams vs. Laser • Orthopedic implants • 30,000+ implanted • EU 2007, USA 2010 • Serves Ortho and Spinal implant clients • Validated powder supply chains • Powder handling/safety O'Dea & Associates 10
  • 11. Why is this man not smiling? Manufacturer: 3D printers Founded: 1997 CEO: Magnus René Headquarters: Mölndal Number of employees: 53 Turnover: 139 million (2012) Profit: 15 million (2012) Largest single shareholder: Industrial Development Fund, owns 25 percent (Data & Photo: it24.idg.se) “Duktiga människor och uthållighet” O'Dea & Associates 11
  • 12. Engineering Tool-Neutral Value BDTG.DE Bertrandt • Digital engineering unit • Strong Auto and Aero • Breaks out 3D printing • Near 30% ROE • 30% institutional owned • Increasing institutional base: • Net new holders • Net increased positions PRLB Proto Labs • Machined and IM parts • $80 billion global market • Can 3D players challenge? • Big Market: 3 mil. CAD • 30% Revenue, 50% ROIC, 60% GM • Speed thru Software • Tool Neutral • Brand power: • Integrated, reliable service • Speed, pricing, convenience O'Dea & Associates 12
  • 13. Consumers: “Odds are against You” • Will consumers care that products are made by 3D printing? • Most will not • People care about good value • People care that the product performs as advertised • Will consumers really print a refrigerator handle? “Even if you have a 3D printer at home, it will not offer the right material, color, surface finish, texture, strength properties, and build volume to meet your needs.” • More likely outcome: service bureaus, online outlets • Other issues: • Lack of user-friendly design software • Increasing competition • Potential commoditization Terry Wohlers, Seeking Alpha, February 26, 2013/Morningstar O'Dea & Associates 13
  • 14. Policy Drivers - EU • Additive Manufacturing Alliance integrates the research of Germany's 11 scientific and engineering institutes • Engineering, materials, technology and quality • Industrial applications and projects • Focus Industries: • Automotive, aerospace, bio-medicine and microsystems. • National and international research projects • The Alliance in Action: O'Dea & Associates 14
  • 15. Policy Drivers - US • NAMII – can the U.S. catch up? • POTUS highlighted AM in State of the Union • NAMII Progress • First Project Call in November; Defense Manufacturing Conference • $4.5 million awarded to initial 7 projects across AM spectrum; winners responsible for $5 million matching funds. • Still a “pilot” for Manufacturing Institute Network; short-term focus on market impact within several months. • NCDMM • Driving NAMII, blueprinting the Institutes with defense focus? O'Dea & Associates 15
  • 16. “AAM” – A New Industrial Sector • Auto • Aero • Medical • Combined $8.4 billion by 2025 (Lux Capital projection) tracks Wohlers forecast of $6.5 billion by 2019. • Dental revolution rolling along • Surgical applications increasing • Organ research underway • Lighter, stronger materials – cabins, airframes, seating O'Dea & Associates 16
  • 17. 3D Market Segmentation O'Dea & Associates 17
  • 18. What’s Ahead? Creative Disruption • Production in 12 plants in 8 countries • Sales in 83 countries • Net sales MSEK 7,081 (2011) • >110 employees dedicated to R&D • 700 patents • Output devices • Technology platform • Knowledge network • DirectSpare links to EU • Leverage powder lead • Expand offering/service O'Dea & Associates 18
  • 19. Creative Disruption • Sweden’s industrial elite shake up AM • Höganäs - fcubic deal reverses the “razor blades” play • Powder maker’s challenge to 3D machines raises stakes • Lindengruppen bid creates strategic threat in metals • Private capital funds long-term approach and R&D O'Dea & Associates 19