Econometrics is the quantitative analysis of economic phenomena using statistical methods. It has three main uses: 1) describing economic relationships, 2) testing economic theories, and 3) forecasting future economic trends. Regression analysis is a statistical technique used in econometrics to model relationships between variables. It involves estimating coefficients for independent variables that quantify their impact on a dependent variable. The estimated regression equation relates the dependent variable to the independent variables plus an error term. This allows for variations not explained by the independent variables.
Econometrics involves using economic theory, statistics, and data to quantify and model economic phenomena. Regression analysis is a key econometric technique used to estimate relationships between dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression model takes the form of Y = β0 + β1X + ε, where Y is the dependent variable, X is the independent variable, β0 and β1 are coefficients to be estimated, and ε is the error term. This model can be estimated using sample data to obtain predicted values of Y and measure how well the model fits the data.
1. The document discusses econometrics and the linear regression model. It outlines the methodology of econometric research which includes stating a theory or hypothesis, specifying a mathematical model, specifying an econometric model, obtaining data, estimating parameters, hypothesis testing, forecasting, and using the model for policy purposes.
2. It provides an example of specifying Keynes' consumption function as the mathematical model C= β1 + β2X where C is consumption and X is income. For the econometric model, an error term is added to allow for inexact relationships.
3. Assumptions of the classical linear regression model are discussed including the error term being uncorrelated with X, having a mean of zero,
This document provides an introduction to econometrics. It defines econometrics as the quantitative analysis of economic phenomena using statistical and mathematical tools. Econometrics has three main uses: to describe economic reality through estimated relationships between variables, to test hypotheses from economic theory using quantitative data, and to forecast future economic conditions. Correlation analysis examines the linear association between variables, while regression analysis seeks to explain movements in a dependent variable as a function of independent variables through a single equation estimated using least squares methods.
This document provides an introduction to regression analysis and statistical methods. It discusses that regression analysis estimates the linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Multiple linear regression allows studying the relationship between one dependent variable and two or more independent variables. The accuracy of regression models can be evaluated using measures like R-squared and testing overall model significance. Diagnostic tests of assumptions like independence of errors, normality, homoscedasticity and absence of multicollinearity/influential outliers are important.
This document provides information about simple and multiple linear regression analysis. It defines simple regression as exploring the relationship between two variables, a dependent and independent variable. Multiple linear regression analyzes the relationship between one dependent variable and two or more independent variables. The document discusses regression equations, correlation coefficients, coefficients of determination, and how to test the significance of regression models using F tests and t tests.
This document discusses the key concepts and applications of econometrics. It provides an overview of econometrics methodology, including statement of theory, specification of mathematical and statistical models, obtaining data, estimation of parameters, hypothesis testing, forecasting and using models for policy purposes. It also discusses regression analysis and the classical normal linear regression model, addressing topics like interval estimation, hypothesis testing, and issues like multicollinearity.
1) The multiple regression model examines the linear relationship between a dependent variable (Y) and two or more independent variables (X). It assumes the relationship can be modeled as Y = β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + ... + βkXk + ε.
2) The key assumptions of the multiple regression model are linearity, independence of errors, normality of errors, and equal variance of errors.
3) Important regression statistics include R-squared, adjusted R-squared, standard error, F-test, t-tests and confidence intervals which are used to evaluate the significance and fit of the regression model.
The document provides an overview of regression analysis. It defines regression analysis as a technique used to estimate the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The key purposes of regression are to estimate relationships between variables, determine the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable, and predict the dependent variable given values of the independent variables. The document also outlines the assumptions of the linear regression model, introduces simple and multiple regression, and describes methods for model building including variable selection procedures.
Econometrics involves using economic theory, statistics, and data to quantify and model economic phenomena. Regression analysis is a key econometric technique used to estimate relationships between dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression model takes the form of Y = β0 + β1X + ε, where Y is the dependent variable, X is the independent variable, β0 and β1 are coefficients to be estimated, and ε is the error term. This model can be estimated using sample data to obtain predicted values of Y and measure how well the model fits the data.
1. The document discusses econometrics and the linear regression model. It outlines the methodology of econometric research which includes stating a theory or hypothesis, specifying a mathematical model, specifying an econometric model, obtaining data, estimating parameters, hypothesis testing, forecasting, and using the model for policy purposes.
2. It provides an example of specifying Keynes' consumption function as the mathematical model C= β1 + β2X where C is consumption and X is income. For the econometric model, an error term is added to allow for inexact relationships.
3. Assumptions of the classical linear regression model are discussed including the error term being uncorrelated with X, having a mean of zero,
This document provides an introduction to econometrics. It defines econometrics as the quantitative analysis of economic phenomena using statistical and mathematical tools. Econometrics has three main uses: to describe economic reality through estimated relationships between variables, to test hypotheses from economic theory using quantitative data, and to forecast future economic conditions. Correlation analysis examines the linear association between variables, while regression analysis seeks to explain movements in a dependent variable as a function of independent variables through a single equation estimated using least squares methods.
This document provides an introduction to regression analysis and statistical methods. It discusses that regression analysis estimates the linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Multiple linear regression allows studying the relationship between one dependent variable and two or more independent variables. The accuracy of regression models can be evaluated using measures like R-squared and testing overall model significance. Diagnostic tests of assumptions like independence of errors, normality, homoscedasticity and absence of multicollinearity/influential outliers are important.
This document provides information about simple and multiple linear regression analysis. It defines simple regression as exploring the relationship between two variables, a dependent and independent variable. Multiple linear regression analyzes the relationship between one dependent variable and two or more independent variables. The document discusses regression equations, correlation coefficients, coefficients of determination, and how to test the significance of regression models using F tests and t tests.
This document discusses the key concepts and applications of econometrics. It provides an overview of econometrics methodology, including statement of theory, specification of mathematical and statistical models, obtaining data, estimation of parameters, hypothesis testing, forecasting and using models for policy purposes. It also discusses regression analysis and the classical normal linear regression model, addressing topics like interval estimation, hypothesis testing, and issues like multicollinearity.
1) The multiple regression model examines the linear relationship between a dependent variable (Y) and two or more independent variables (X). It assumes the relationship can be modeled as Y = β0 + β1X1 + β2X2 + ... + βkXk + ε.
2) The key assumptions of the multiple regression model are linearity, independence of errors, normality of errors, and equal variance of errors.
3) Important regression statistics include R-squared, adjusted R-squared, standard error, F-test, t-tests and confidence intervals which are used to evaluate the significance and fit of the regression model.
The document provides an overview of regression analysis. It defines regression analysis as a technique used to estimate the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The key purposes of regression are to estimate relationships between variables, determine the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable, and predict the dependent variable given values of the independent variables. The document also outlines the assumptions of the linear regression model, introduces simple and multiple regression, and describes methods for model building including variable selection procedures.
Multiple regression analysis allows researchers to examine the relationship between multiple predictor or independent variables and an outcome or dependent variable. It extends simple linear regression to incorporate more than one independent variable. Stepwise regression is a technique used for variable selection that adds or removes variables from the model based on statistical criteria like the F-statistic and p-values. The general multiple regression model estimates coefficients for each predictor variable that represent their unique contribution to explaining the dependent variable while controlling for other predictors.
The document discusses binary logistic regression. Some key points:
- Binary logistic regression predicts the probability of an outcome being 1 or 0 based on predictor variables. It addresses issues with ordinary least squares regression when the dependent variable is binary.
- The logistic regression model transforms the dependent variable using the logit function, ln(p/(1-p)), where p is the probability of an outcome being 1. This results in a linear relationship that can be modeled.
- Interpretation of coefficients is similar to ordinary least squares regression but focuses on odds ratios. A positive coefficient increases the odds of an outcome being 1, while a negative coefficient decreases the odds. The odds ratio indicates how much the odds change with a one-
Multiple regression analysis allows researchers to examine the relationship between one dependent or outcome variable and two or more independent or predictor variables. It extends simple linear regression to model more complex relationships. Stepwise regression is a technique that automates the process of building regression models by sequentially adding or removing variables based on statistical criteria. It begins with no variables in the model and adds variables one at a time based on their contribution to the model until none improve it significantly.
Multiple linear regression models relationships between an outcome variable and multiple explanatory variables. It assumes a linear relationship between the variables and estimates coefficients that represent the effect of each explanatory variable on the outcome, holding other variables fixed. Ordinary least squares estimation minimizes the sum of squared residuals to estimate the coefficients, resulting in unbiased, best linear unbiased estimators under the assumptions of linearity, random sampling, no perfect collinearity, zero conditional mean of errors, and homoscedasticity. The estimated coefficients can be interpreted as the partial effect of changes in each explanatory variable on the outcome.
- Regression analysis is used to predict the value of a dependent variable based on one or more independent variables and explain the relationship between them.
- There are different types of regression depending on whether the dependent variable is continuous or binary. Ordinary least squares regression is used for continuous dependent variables while logistic regression is used for binary dependent variables.
- The simple linear regression model describes the relationship between one independent and one dependent variable as a linear equation. This can be extended to multiple linear regression with more than one independent variable.
This document provides an overview of statistical concepts for analyzing experimental data, including z-tests, t-tests, and ANOVAs. It discusses developing experimental hypotheses and distinguishing between null and alternative hypotheses. Key concepts explained include p-values, type I and type II errors, and determining statistical significance. Examples are given of applying a t-test and ANOVA to compare brain volume changes before and after childbirth. Limitations of statistical analyses with respect to including entire populations are also noted.
This document discusses regression analysis and correlation. Regression analysis models the relationship between a response variable and explanatory variables. It finds the line of best fit to describe how the response variable changes with the explanatory variables. Correlation measures the strength and direction of association between two variables. There are different types of correlation depending on the type of data. Regression assumptions include that the error terms have zero mean, are normally distributed, have constant variance, and are independent. Regression analysis involves checking these assumptions, creating a scatter plot, estimating coefficients to find the line of best fit, and making inferences.
This document provides an overview of a regression modelling course. It includes contact details for the lecturer and tutor. It outlines the lecture and tutorial times, textbook information, and assessment details. It also provides hints for success, including attending all classes, doing the required readings and tutorials, and using R to complete assignments. The document then begins covering key concepts in regression modelling, including the history, different types of relationships between variables, and how to construct regression models.
The document discusses linear regression analysis and its applications. It provides examples of using regression to predict house prices based on house characteristics, economic forecasts based on economic indicators, and determining optimal advertising levels based on past sales data. It also explains key concepts in regression including the least squares method, the regression line, R-squared, and the assumptions of the linear regression model.
The document discusses bivariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, explaining how to estimate regression coefficients using software like SPSS and interpret their results. It covers topics such as estimating and interpreting intercept and slope coefficients, measuring predictive power using R-squared, and testing the significance of individual regression coefficients and the overall regression model through techniques like t-tests and F-tests.
This document provides an introduction to basic statistics and regression analysis. It defines regression as relating to or predicting one variable based on another. Regression analysis is useful for economics and business. The document outlines the objectives of understanding simple linear regression, regression coefficients, and merits and demerits of regression analysis. It describes types of regression including simple and multiple regression. Key concepts explained in more detail include regression lines, regression equations, regression coefficients, and the difference between correlation and regression. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating regression equations using different methods.
This document provides an overview of using Stata for data management and reproducible research. It describes the Stata environment including the toolbar, command panel, review panel, results panel and variables panel. It demonstrates loading sample data using sysuse and viewing metadata about the data using describe and summary statistics using summarize. Reproducible research is facilitated by writing commands in a do-file that can be executed from the do-file editor.
The document discusses the basics of econometrics and regression analysis. It provides 6 definitions for econometrics, highlighting that econometrics applies economic theory, mathematics, and statistical methods to empirical economic data. Regression analysis is introduced as studying the dependence of one variable on others, with the goal of estimating or predicting the average value of the dependent variable based on the independent variables. The methodology of regression involves specifying a theory, mathematical model, econometric model, obtaining data, estimation, hypothesis testing, forecasting, and using the model for policy purposes.
For this assignment, use the aschooltest.sav dataset.The dMerrileeDelvalle969
This document provides instructions for analyzing education test score data from 200 students using SPSS. It includes questions to guide analysis of relationships between test scores (dependent variable) and demographic factors like gender, race, and school type (independent variables). Students are asked to identify variables of interest, run assumption tests, conduct a one-way ANOVA and post hoc tests to address a hypothesis, and interpret the results.
Lecture 4 - Linear Regression, a lecture in subject module Statistical & Mach...Maninda Edirisooriya
Simplest Machine Learning algorithm or one of the most fundamental Statistical Learning technique is Linear Regression. This was one of the lectures of a full course I taught in University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka on 2023 second half of the year.
1. The document discusses demand estimation through regression analysis. Regression analysis uses empirical demand functions to estimate the relationship between a dependent variable (e.g. quantity demanded) and independent variables (e.g. price, income).
2. Simple and multiple regression analysis are explained. Simple regression uses one independent variable while multiple regression uses two or more. The Ordinary Least Squares method is commonly used to estimate coefficients.
3. The key steps in regression analysis are: specifying the model, estimating coefficients, interpreting results through statistical tests of significance, and using results for decision making like forecasting.
This chapter discusses simple linear regression analysis. It introduces the simple linear regression model and how it is used to predict a dependent variable (Y) based on the value of an independent variable (X). It explains how the least squares method is used to calculate the regression coefficients (slope and intercept) that best fit a line to the data. It also discusses measures of variation like R-squared and the assumptions of the linear regression model. An example using data on house prices and sizes is presented to demonstrate how to perform simple linear regression using Excel and interpret the results.
Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the relationships between variables. It allows one to predict the value of a dependent variable based on the value of one or more independent variables. The document discusses simple linear regression, where there is one independent variable, as well as multiple linear regression which involves two or more independent variables. Examples of linear relationships that can be modeled using regression analysis include price vs. quantity, sales vs. advertising, and crop yield vs. fertilizer usage. The key methods for performing regression analysis covered in the document are least squares regression and regressions based on deviations from the mean.
This document provides an introduction to financial econometrics. It defines econometrics as the application of statistical techniques to economic and financial problems. The key aspects of econometrics discussed include establishing mathematical models of economic theories, collecting and testing data, and using models for forecasting, prediction, and policy purposes. The document also distinguishes between econometrics and financial econometrics, noting that the latter focuses more on financial data and variables like stock and index prices and returns. It outlines some common financial data characteristics and approaches to modeling financial data.
Regression (Linear Regression and Logistic Regression) by Akanksha BaliAkanksha Bali
Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to examine relationships between variables. Linear regression finds the best fitting straight line through data points to model the relationship between a continuous dependent variable (Y) and one or more independent variables (X). Logistic regression produces results in a binary format to predict outcomes of categorical dependent variables. It transforms the linear equation using logarithms to restrict predicted Y values between 0 and 1.
B2B payments are rapidly changing. Find out the 5 key questions you need to be asking yourself to be sure you are mastering B2B payments today. Learn more at www.BlueSnap.com.
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Multiple regression analysis allows researchers to examine the relationship between multiple predictor or independent variables and an outcome or dependent variable. It extends simple linear regression to incorporate more than one independent variable. Stepwise regression is a technique used for variable selection that adds or removes variables from the model based on statistical criteria like the F-statistic and p-values. The general multiple regression model estimates coefficients for each predictor variable that represent their unique contribution to explaining the dependent variable while controlling for other predictors.
The document discusses binary logistic regression. Some key points:
- Binary logistic regression predicts the probability of an outcome being 1 or 0 based on predictor variables. It addresses issues with ordinary least squares regression when the dependent variable is binary.
- The logistic regression model transforms the dependent variable using the logit function, ln(p/(1-p)), where p is the probability of an outcome being 1. This results in a linear relationship that can be modeled.
- Interpretation of coefficients is similar to ordinary least squares regression but focuses on odds ratios. A positive coefficient increases the odds of an outcome being 1, while a negative coefficient decreases the odds. The odds ratio indicates how much the odds change with a one-
Multiple regression analysis allows researchers to examine the relationship between one dependent or outcome variable and two or more independent or predictor variables. It extends simple linear regression to model more complex relationships. Stepwise regression is a technique that automates the process of building regression models by sequentially adding or removing variables based on statistical criteria. It begins with no variables in the model and adds variables one at a time based on their contribution to the model until none improve it significantly.
Multiple linear regression models relationships between an outcome variable and multiple explanatory variables. It assumes a linear relationship between the variables and estimates coefficients that represent the effect of each explanatory variable on the outcome, holding other variables fixed. Ordinary least squares estimation minimizes the sum of squared residuals to estimate the coefficients, resulting in unbiased, best linear unbiased estimators under the assumptions of linearity, random sampling, no perfect collinearity, zero conditional mean of errors, and homoscedasticity. The estimated coefficients can be interpreted as the partial effect of changes in each explanatory variable on the outcome.
- Regression analysis is used to predict the value of a dependent variable based on one or more independent variables and explain the relationship between them.
- There are different types of regression depending on whether the dependent variable is continuous or binary. Ordinary least squares regression is used for continuous dependent variables while logistic regression is used for binary dependent variables.
- The simple linear regression model describes the relationship between one independent and one dependent variable as a linear equation. This can be extended to multiple linear regression with more than one independent variable.
This document provides an overview of statistical concepts for analyzing experimental data, including z-tests, t-tests, and ANOVAs. It discusses developing experimental hypotheses and distinguishing between null and alternative hypotheses. Key concepts explained include p-values, type I and type II errors, and determining statistical significance. Examples are given of applying a t-test and ANOVA to compare brain volume changes before and after childbirth. Limitations of statistical analyses with respect to including entire populations are also noted.
This document discusses regression analysis and correlation. Regression analysis models the relationship between a response variable and explanatory variables. It finds the line of best fit to describe how the response variable changes with the explanatory variables. Correlation measures the strength and direction of association between two variables. There are different types of correlation depending on the type of data. Regression assumptions include that the error terms have zero mean, are normally distributed, have constant variance, and are independent. Regression analysis involves checking these assumptions, creating a scatter plot, estimating coefficients to find the line of best fit, and making inferences.
This document provides an overview of a regression modelling course. It includes contact details for the lecturer and tutor. It outlines the lecture and tutorial times, textbook information, and assessment details. It also provides hints for success, including attending all classes, doing the required readings and tutorials, and using R to complete assignments. The document then begins covering key concepts in regression modelling, including the history, different types of relationships between variables, and how to construct regression models.
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The document discusses bivariate and multivariate linear regression analysis, explaining how to estimate regression coefficients using software like SPSS and interpret their results. It covers topics such as estimating and interpreting intercept and slope coefficients, measuring predictive power using R-squared, and testing the significance of individual regression coefficients and the overall regression model through techniques like t-tests and F-tests.
This document provides an introduction to basic statistics and regression analysis. It defines regression as relating to or predicting one variable based on another. Regression analysis is useful for economics and business. The document outlines the objectives of understanding simple linear regression, regression coefficients, and merits and demerits of regression analysis. It describes types of regression including simple and multiple regression. Key concepts explained in more detail include regression lines, regression equations, regression coefficients, and the difference between correlation and regression. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating regression equations using different methods.
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The document discusses the basics of econometrics and regression analysis. It provides 6 definitions for econometrics, highlighting that econometrics applies economic theory, mathematics, and statistical methods to empirical economic data. Regression analysis is introduced as studying the dependence of one variable on others, with the goal of estimating or predicting the average value of the dependent variable based on the independent variables. The methodology of regression involves specifying a theory, mathematical model, econometric model, obtaining data, estimation, hypothesis testing, forecasting, and using the model for policy purposes.
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Simplest Machine Learning algorithm or one of the most fundamental Statistical Learning technique is Linear Regression. This was one of the lectures of a full course I taught in University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka on 2023 second half of the year.
1. The document discusses demand estimation through regression analysis. Regression analysis uses empirical demand functions to estimate the relationship between a dependent variable (e.g. quantity demanded) and independent variables (e.g. price, income).
2. Simple and multiple regression analysis are explained. Simple regression uses one independent variable while multiple regression uses two or more. The Ordinary Least Squares method is commonly used to estimate coefficients.
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This chapter discusses simple linear regression analysis. It introduces the simple linear regression model and how it is used to predict a dependent variable (Y) based on the value of an independent variable (X). It explains how the least squares method is used to calculate the regression coefficients (slope and intercept) that best fit a line to the data. It also discusses measures of variation like R-squared and the assumptions of the linear regression model. An example using data on house prices and sizes is presented to demonstrate how to perform simple linear regression using Excel and interpret the results.
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This document provides an introduction to financial econometrics. It defines econometrics as the application of statistical techniques to economic and financial problems. The key aspects of econometrics discussed include establishing mathematical models of economic theories, collecting and testing data, and using models for forecasting, prediction, and policy purposes. The document also distinguishes between econometrics and financial econometrics, noting that the latter focuses more on financial data and variables like stock and index prices and returns. It outlines some common financial data characteristics and approaches to modeling financial data.
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• Formally defined:
Econometrics is the quantitative
measurement and analysis of actual
business and economic phenomena.
• Econometrics attempts to quantitatively bridge gap
between economic theory and the real world.
• In practice, econometrics has three major uses.
3. β 1-3
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
Use 1: Describing economic reality
• Econometrics can quantify and measure marginal effects
and estimate numbers for theoretical equations.
• For example, consumer demand for a product often can
be thought of as a relationship between the quantity
demanded (Q) and its price (P), the price of a substitute
(Ps), and disposable income (Yd).
4. β 1-4
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
• Written as a theoretical equation:
• Theory suggests β3 should be positive for most goods.
• Econometrics allows us to estimate that relationship
using past consumption, income and prices:
• If Yd increases by one unit, Q increases by 0.23.
• 0.23 is called an estimated regression coefficient.
Q = b0 +b1 P+b2 PS +b3 Yd (1.1)
Q = 27.7+0.11P+0.03PS +0.23Yd (1.2)
5. β 1-5
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
Use 2: Testing hypotheses about economic theory
and policy.
• Much of economics involves building theoretical models
and testing them against evidence.
• Hypothesis testing is a vital part of that process.
• You could test the hypothesis that the product in
Equation (1.1) is a normal good.
β
Q = b0 +b1 P+b2 PS +b3 Yd (1.1)
6. β 1-6
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
• Since β3 was estimated to be 0.23, the evidence seems
to support the hypothesis.
• But the “statistical significance” of the estimate would
have to be investigated before such a conclusion could
be justified.
Q = 27.7+0.11P+0.03PS +0.23Yd (1.2)
7. β 1-7
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
Use 3: Forecasting future economic activity
• The most difficult use of econometrics is to forecast or
predict the future using past data.
• Economists use econometrics to forecast a variety of
variables (GDP, sales, inflation, etc.).
• Accuracy of forecasts depends in large measure on the
degree to which the past is a good guide to the future.
• To the extent econometrics can shed light on the future,
leaders will be better equipped to make decisions.
8. β 1-8
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
• There are different approaches to quantitative work.
• Different academic disciplines use different techniques
because they face different problems.
• Sir Clive Granger, Nobel Laureate, noted:
“We need a special field called econometrics,
and textbooks about it, because it is generally
accepted that economic data possess certain
properties that are not considered in standard
statistics texts or are not sufficiently emphasized
there for use by economists.”
9. β 1-9
What Is Econometrics? (continued)
• Different approaches also make sense in economics.
• Forecasting uses different techniques than econometric
modeling for descriptive purposes.
• To put into context, consider the steps to
nonexperimental quantitative research:
1. Specifying the models or relationships to be studied.
2. Collecting the data needed to quantify the models.
3. Quantifying the models with the data.
• The approach chosen is left to individual but should be
justifiable.
10. β 1-10
What Is Regression Analysis?
• It is a statistical technique that attempts to “explain”
movements in one variable, the dependent variable, as
a function of movements in a set of other variables,
called the independent (or explanatory) variables,
through the quantification of one or more equations.
• For example, in equation (1.1):
dependent variable: Q
independent variables: P, Ps, and Yd
Q = b0 +b1 P+b2 PS +b3 Yd (1.1)
11. β 1-11
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Economists are interested in cause-and-effect.
• Don’t be deceived by the words “dependent” and
“independent” variables.
• Regression results cannot prove causality!
• For example, if variables A and B are related statistically,
then:
-A might “cause” B.
-B might “cause” A.
-Some third factor might “cause” both.
-The relationship might have happened by chance.
12. β 1-12
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• The simplest single-equation linear model is:
• Y is the dependent variable
• X is the independent variable
• β’s are coefficients
β0 is the constant or intercept term
β1 is the slope coefficient
• The slope coefficient, β1, indicates the amount Y will
change if X increases by one unit.
Y = b0 +b1 X (1.3)
13. β 1-13
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• The slope coefficient, β1, indicates the amount Y will
change if X increases by one unit.
• If linear regression techniques are going to be applied to
an equation, that equation must be linear.
• An equation is linear if plotting the function in terms of X
and Y generates a straight line.
(Y2 -Y1)
(X2 - X1)
=
DY
DX
= b1
15. β 1-15
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Even if much of the variation in Y is caused by X, there
is almost always variation that comes from other
sources.
• A stochastic error term is added to a regression
equation to account for variation in Y that cannot be
explained by the included X(s).
• This is usually notated by adding an epsilon (ε) to the
regression equation:
Y = b0 +b1 X +e (1.4)
16. β 1-16
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Equation (1.4) can be thought of as having two parts:
1. Deterministic: β0 + β1X
2. Stochastic (or random): ε
• The deterministic component indicates the value of Y
that is determined by a given value of X.
• The deterministic can be thought of as the expected
value of Y given X:
E(Y | X) = b0 +b1 X (1.5)
17. β 1-17
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• The stochastic term (the error term, ε) “catches” the
sources of variation that the deterministic part does not.
• There are at least four sources of variation in Y not
captured by the included X(s):
1. Influences omitted from the equation
2. Measurement error in the dependent variable
3. The true theoretical equation has a different
functional form than the one chosen for the
regression
4. Human behavior can be unpredictable and
purely random
18. β 1-18
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
Example: Aggregate consumption function
• Possible sources of error?
1. Consumer uncertainty hard to measure (omitted
variable)
2. Observed consumption different than actual
consumption (sampling error)
3. The consumption function might not be linear
(different functional form)
4. Some random event (purely random)
Consumption = b0 +b1 DisposableIncome+e
20. β 1-20
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Notation needs to be extended to allow for more than
one independent variable and reference specific
observations.
• First, extend notation to reference specific observations:
where:
Yi = the ith observation of the dependent variable
Xi = the ith observation of the independent variable
εi = the ith observation of the stochastic error term
β0, β1 are the regression coefficients
N is the number of observations
Yi = b0 +b1 Xi +ei (1.7)
(i =1,2,..., N)
21. β 1-21
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Second, extend notation to allow for more than one
independent variable.
• If we define:
X1i = the ith observation of the first independent
variable
X2i = the ith observation of the second independent
variable
X3i = the ith observation of the third independent
variable
• Then, all three variables can be expressed as
determinants of Y.
22. β 1-22
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• These extensions result in a multivariate linear
regression model:
• Each slope coefficient gives the impact on Y of a 1 unit
increase in its X, holding constant other included X’s.
• For example, if X2 increases by 1 unit, Y increases by β2
holding X1 and X3 constant.
• If a variable is not included in an equation, its impact on
Y is not held constant.
Yi = b0 +b1 X1i +b2 X2i +b3 X3i +ei (1.8)
23. β 1-23
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
Example: Weight as a function of height
• Each value of i represents an individual in the sample.
• If you select four individuals (Woody, Lesley, Bruce, and
Mary), then you could write out an equation for each:
Weighti = b0 +b1 Heighti +ei (1.9)
Weightwoody = b0 +b1 Heightwoody +ewoody
Weightlesley = b0 +b1 Heightlesley +elesley
Weightbruce = b0 +b1 Heightbruce +ebruce
Weightmary = b0 +b1 Heightmary +emary
24. β 1-24
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• Each individual has their own height and weight.
• Random events impact people differently.
• To account for these random differences each individual
needs their own value of the error term (εi).
• Note that the regression coefficients (the β’s) don’t
vary by individual.
• Rather, the β’s apply to the whole sample.
25. β 1-25
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
Example: What influences wages?
• Wage (WAGE) of worker is dependent variable
• Possible independent variables?
experience (EXP), education (EDU), gender (GEND)
• Redefine variables in Equation (1.8):
Y = WAGE X2 = EDU
X1 = EXP X3 = GEND
• Substituting these into Equation (1.8):
WAGEi = b0 +b1 EXPi +b2 EDUi +b3 GENDi +ei (1.10)
26. β 1-26
What Is Regression Analysis? (continued)
• What is the meaning of β1 in equation (1.10)?
• It is the impact on wages of an additional year of
experience holding constant education and gender.
• General multivariate linear regression model with K
variables:
Yi = b0 +b1 X1i +b2 X2i +...+bK XKi +ei (1.11)
27. β 1-27
The Estimated Regression Equation
• The quantified version of a theoretical regression
equation is the estimated regression equation.
Theoretical:
Estimated:
• (read “Y-hat”) is the estimated or fitted value of Yi
• Put another way:
• The closer the are to Yi’s, the better the “fit.”
ˆ
Yi =103.40+6.38Xi
Yi = b0 +b1Xi +ei
ˆ
Yi
E[Yi | Xi ]= ˆ
Yi
ˆ
Yi 's
(1.12)
(1.13)
28. β 1-28
The Estimated Regression Equation (continued)
The difference between and is the residual (ei).
• Mathematically:
• Note the difference between ei and εi:
• The residual (ei) can be thought of as an estimate of the
error term (εi ).
• Figure 1.3 graphically displays these concepts.
ˆ
Yi
ei =Yi - ˆ
Yi (1.15)
ei =Yi -E(Yi | Xi ) (1.16)
Yi
30. β 1-30
The Estimated Regression Equation (continued)
True Regression
Equation
Estimated Regression
Equation
b̂0
b̂1
ei
b0
b1
ei
• The estimated regression model can be extended by
adding additional X’s.
ˆ
Yi = b̂0 +b̂1 X1i +b̂2 X2i +...+b̂K XKi
(1.17)
31. β 1-31
A Simple Example of Regression Analysis
• You’ve accepted a job as a weight guesser at Magic Hill.
• You hypothesize the following theoretical relationship.
where:
Yi = the weight (in pounds) of ith customer
Xi = the height (in inches above 5 ft) of ith customer
εi = the value of the stochastic error term for the
ith customer
• The estimated equation:
Yi = b0 +b
+
1 Xi +ei
(1.18)
EstimatedWeight =103.40+6.38Height(> 5ft) (1.19)
34. β 1-34
Using Regression to Explain Housing Prices
• Want to measure the impact of house size on price.
• Theoretical model:
where:
PRICEi = the price (in thousands of $) of the ith house
SIZEi = the size (in square feet) of the ith house
εi = the value of the stochastic error term for the
ith house
• The estimated equation:
PRICEi = b0 +b
+
1 SIZEi +ei
PRˆ
ICEi = 40.0+0.138SIZEi
(1.20)
(1.21)
36. β 1-36
Explain Housing Prices (continued)
• What does = 40.0 mean?
• It is the estimate of the constant or intercept term (β0).
• Take care in interpreting (more about that in Chapter 7).
• What does = 0.138 mean?
• It is the estimate of the coefficient of SIZE (β1).
• Interpretation: if the size of a house increases by 1
square foot, the estimated price of the house will
increase $138.
b̂0
b̂1
37. β 1-37
Explain Housing Prices (continued)
• What does the model predict for a 1600 sqft house?
• Since PRICE is in thousands, estimated price is $260,800
• Perhaps the price of a house is influenced by more than
just the size of the house? (This example is revisited in
Chapter 11).
ˆ 40.0 0.138(1600) 260.8
i
PRICE = + =