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CHAPTER 7



THE FOREIGN
 EXCHANGE
  MARKET
CHAPTER OVERVIEW

I.   INTRODUCTION
II.  ORGANIZATION OF THE
     FOREIGN EXCHANGE
     MARKET
III. THE SPOT MARKET
IV. THE FORWARD MARKET
V. INTEREST RATE PARITY
         THEORY
PART I. INTRODUCTION

I.   INTRODUCTION
     A. The Currency Market:
         where money
         denominated in one
         currency is bought and
         sold with money
         denominated in another
         currency.
INTRODUCTION

B. International Trade and
    Capital Transactions:
    - facilitated with the ability
    to transfer purchasing power
    between countries
INTRODUCTION

C. Location
   1. OTC-type: no specific
           location
   2. Most trades by phone,
           telex, or SWIFT
 SWIFT: Society for Worldwide
           Interbank Financial
           Telecommunications
PART II.
ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN
EXCHANGE MARKET

 I . PARTICIPANTS IN THE
      FOREIGN EXCHANGE
      MARKET
   A. Participants at 2 Levels
      1. Wholesale Level (95%)
               - major banks
      2. Retail Level
               - business
               customers.
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

B. Two Types of Currency
   Markets
   1. Spot Market:
      - immediate transaction
      - recorded by 2nd
      business day
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2.   Forward Market:
     - transactions take place at a
           specified future date
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

C. Participants by Market
 1. Spot Market
    a. commercial banks
    b. brokers
    c. customers of commercial
            and central banks
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

  2. Forward Market
         a. arbitrageurs
         b. traders
         c. hedgers
         d. speculators
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

II. CLEARING SYSTEMS
   A. Clearing House Interbank
          Payments System
          (CHIPS)
      - used in U.S. for electronic
            fund transfers.
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

B. FedWire

   - operated by the Fed

   - used for domestic transfers
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

III. ELECTRONIC TRADING
   A. Automated Trading
      - genuine screen-based
          market
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

B. Results:
   1.   Reduces cost of trading
   2.   Threatens traders’
        oligopoly of information
   3.   Provides liquidity
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

IV. SIZE OF THE MARKET
 A. Largest in the world
       1995: $1.2 trillion daily
ORGANIZATION OF THE
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

B. Market Centers (1995):
      London = $464 billion
                   daily
      New York= $244 billion
                   daily
      Tokyo = $161 billion
                   daily
PART III.
THE SPOT MARKET
I.      SPOT QUOTATIONS
     A. Sources
        1. All major newspapers
        2. Major currencies have
           four different quotes:
               a.   spot price
               b.   30-day
               c.   90-day
               d.   180-day
THE SPOT MARKET

B. Method of Quotation
   1. For interbank dollar
      trades:
      a. American terms
            example: $.5838/dm
       b.   European terms
            example: dm1.713/$
THE SPOT MARKET

 2. For nonbank customers:
   Direct quote
   gives the home currency
   price of one unit of foreign
   currency.
   EXAMPLE: dm0.25/FF
THE SPOT MARKET

C. Transactions Costs
   1. Bid-Ask Spread
       used to calculate the fee
       charged by the bank

        Bid = the price at which
        the bank is willing to buy
        Ask = the price it will sell
        the currency
THE SPOT MARKET

4.   Percent Spread Formula (PS):


      Ask − Bid
 PS =           x100
        Ask
THE SPOT MARKET

D. Cross Rates
   1.   The exchange rate
        between 2 non - US$
           currencies.
THE SPOT MARKET

2.   Calculating Cross Rates
         When you want to know
         what the dm/ cross rate
         is, and you know
         dm2/US$ and .55/US$

 then dm/ = dm2/US$ ÷
 .55/US$
           = dm3.636/ 
THE SPOT MARKET

E. Currency Arbitrage
 1. If cross rates differ from
    one financial center to
    another, and profit
    opportunities exist.
THE SPOT MARKET

2.   Buy cheap in one int’l market,
     sell at a higher price in
     another

3.   Role of Available Information
THE SPOT MARKET

F.   Settlement Date Value Date:

 1. Date monies are due

 2. 2nd Working day after date of
        original transaction.
THE SPOT MARKET

G. Exchange Risk
 1. Bankers = middlemen
    a. Incurring risk of adverse
       exchange rate moves.
    b. Increased uncertainty
       about future exchange
       rate requires
THE SPOT MARKET

   1.) Demand for higher risk
          premium

   2.) Bankers widen bid-ask
          spread
MECHANICS OF SPOT
TRANSACTIONS

SPOT TRANSACTIONS: An
                         Example
Step 1. Currency transaction:
        verbal agreement, U.S.
        importer specifies:
    a. Account to debit (his acct)
    b. Account to credit
        (exporter)
MECHANICS OF SPOT
TRANSACTIONS
 Step 2. Bank sends importer
         contract note including:
         - amount of foreign
                 currency
         - agreed exchange rate
         - confirmation of Step 1.
MECHANICS OF SPOT
TRANSACTIONS
Step 3. Settlement
    Correspondent bank in Hong
    Kong transfers HK$ from
    nostro account to exporter’s.
    Value Date.
    U.S. bank debits importer’s
        account.
PART III.
THE FORWARD MARKET
I. INTRODUCTION
   A. Definition of a Forward
     Contract
    an agreement between a bank and
    a customer to deliver a specified
    amount of currency against
    another currency at a specified
    future date and at a fixed exchange
    rate.
THE FORWARD MARKET

2. Purpose of a Forward:
   Hedging
   the act of reducing exchange
       rate risk.
THE FORWARD MARKET

B. Forward Rate Quotations
 1. Two Methods:
    a. Outright Rate: quoted to
         commercial customers.
    b.   Swap Rate: quoted in the
         interbank market as a
         discount or premium.
THE FORWARD MARKET

 CALCULATING THE FORWARD
 PREMIUM OR DISCOUNT

    = F-S x      12 x 100
        S        n
 where F = the forward rate of exchange
       S = the spot rate of exchange
       n = the number of months in the
             forward contract
THE FORWARD MARKET

 C. Forward Contract Maturities
        1. Contract Terms
            a. 30-day
            b. 90-day
            c. 180-day
            d. 360-day
       2.   Longer-term Contracts
PART IV.
INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

I. INTRODUCTION
   A. The Theory states:
     the forward rate (F) differs
     from the spot rate (S) at
     equilibrium by an amount
     equal to the interest
     differential (rh - rf) between
     two countries.
INTEREST RATE PARITY
THEORY
2.   The forward premium or
     discount equals the interest
         rate differential.
          (F - S)/S = (rh - rf)
     where   rh = the home rate
             rf = the foreign rate
INTEREST RATE PARITY
THEORY
3.   In equilibrium, returns on
     currencies will be the same
     i. e. No profit will be realized
           and interest parity exists
           which can be written
               (1 + rh) = F
               (1 + rf)   S
INTEREST RATE PARITY
THEORY
B. Covered Interest Arbitrage
 1. Conditions required:
   interest rate differential does
   not equal the forward
   premium or discount.
 2. Funds will move to a country
   with a more attractive rate.
INTEREST RATE PARITY
THEORY
3.   Market pressures develop:
     a.   As one currency is more
          demanded spot and sold
          forward.
     b.   Inflow of fund depresses
          interest rates.
INTEREST RATE PARITY
THEORY
C. Summary:
   Interest Rate Parity states:
    1.   Higher interest rates on a
         currency offset by
         forward discounts.
    2.   Lower interest rates are
         offset by forward
         premiums.

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Ch07

  • 1. CHAPTER 7 THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
  • 2. CHAPTER OVERVIEW I. INTRODUCTION II. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET III. THE SPOT MARKET IV. THE FORWARD MARKET V. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY
  • 3. PART I. INTRODUCTION I. INTRODUCTION A. The Currency Market: where money denominated in one currency is bought and sold with money denominated in another currency.
  • 4. INTRODUCTION B. International Trade and Capital Transactions: - facilitated with the ability to transfer purchasing power between countries
  • 5. INTRODUCTION C. Location 1. OTC-type: no specific location 2. Most trades by phone, telex, or SWIFT SWIFT: Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications
  • 6. PART II. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET I . PARTICIPANTS IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET A. Participants at 2 Levels 1. Wholesale Level (95%) - major banks 2. Retail Level - business customers.
  • 7. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET B. Two Types of Currency Markets 1. Spot Market: - immediate transaction - recorded by 2nd business day
  • 8. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 2. Forward Market: - transactions take place at a specified future date
  • 9. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET C. Participants by Market 1. Spot Market a. commercial banks b. brokers c. customers of commercial and central banks
  • 10. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 2. Forward Market a. arbitrageurs b. traders c. hedgers d. speculators
  • 11. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET II. CLEARING SYSTEMS A. Clearing House Interbank Payments System (CHIPS) - used in U.S. for electronic fund transfers.
  • 12. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET B. FedWire - operated by the Fed - used for domestic transfers
  • 13. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET III. ELECTRONIC TRADING A. Automated Trading - genuine screen-based market
  • 14. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET B. Results: 1. Reduces cost of trading 2. Threatens traders’ oligopoly of information 3. Provides liquidity
  • 15. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IV. SIZE OF THE MARKET A. Largest in the world 1995: $1.2 trillion daily
  • 16. ORGANIZATION OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET B. Market Centers (1995): London = $464 billion daily New York= $244 billion daily Tokyo = $161 billion daily
  • 17. PART III. THE SPOT MARKET I. SPOT QUOTATIONS A. Sources 1. All major newspapers 2. Major currencies have four different quotes: a. spot price b. 30-day c. 90-day d. 180-day
  • 18. THE SPOT MARKET B. Method of Quotation 1. For interbank dollar trades: a. American terms example: $.5838/dm b. European terms example: dm1.713/$
  • 19. THE SPOT MARKET 2. For nonbank customers: Direct quote gives the home currency price of one unit of foreign currency. EXAMPLE: dm0.25/FF
  • 20. THE SPOT MARKET C. Transactions Costs 1. Bid-Ask Spread used to calculate the fee charged by the bank Bid = the price at which the bank is willing to buy Ask = the price it will sell the currency
  • 21. THE SPOT MARKET 4. Percent Spread Formula (PS): Ask − Bid PS = x100 Ask
  • 22. THE SPOT MARKET D. Cross Rates 1. The exchange rate between 2 non - US$ currencies.
  • 23. THE SPOT MARKET 2. Calculating Cross Rates When you want to know what the dm/ cross rate is, and you know dm2/US$ and .55/US$ then dm/ = dm2/US$ ÷ .55/US$ = dm3.636/ 
  • 24. THE SPOT MARKET E. Currency Arbitrage 1. If cross rates differ from one financial center to another, and profit opportunities exist.
  • 25. THE SPOT MARKET 2. Buy cheap in one int’l market, sell at a higher price in another 3. Role of Available Information
  • 26. THE SPOT MARKET F. Settlement Date Value Date: 1. Date monies are due 2. 2nd Working day after date of original transaction.
  • 27. THE SPOT MARKET G. Exchange Risk 1. Bankers = middlemen a. Incurring risk of adverse exchange rate moves. b. Increased uncertainty about future exchange rate requires
  • 28. THE SPOT MARKET 1.) Demand for higher risk premium 2.) Bankers widen bid-ask spread
  • 29. MECHANICS OF SPOT TRANSACTIONS SPOT TRANSACTIONS: An Example Step 1. Currency transaction: verbal agreement, U.S. importer specifies: a. Account to debit (his acct) b. Account to credit (exporter)
  • 30. MECHANICS OF SPOT TRANSACTIONS Step 2. Bank sends importer contract note including: - amount of foreign currency - agreed exchange rate - confirmation of Step 1.
  • 31. MECHANICS OF SPOT TRANSACTIONS Step 3. Settlement Correspondent bank in Hong Kong transfers HK$ from nostro account to exporter’s. Value Date. U.S. bank debits importer’s account.
  • 32. PART III. THE FORWARD MARKET I. INTRODUCTION A. Definition of a Forward Contract an agreement between a bank and a customer to deliver a specified amount of currency against another currency at a specified future date and at a fixed exchange rate.
  • 33. THE FORWARD MARKET 2. Purpose of a Forward: Hedging the act of reducing exchange rate risk.
  • 34. THE FORWARD MARKET B. Forward Rate Quotations 1. Two Methods: a. Outright Rate: quoted to commercial customers. b. Swap Rate: quoted in the interbank market as a discount or premium.
  • 35. THE FORWARD MARKET CALCULATING THE FORWARD PREMIUM OR DISCOUNT = F-S x 12 x 100 S n where F = the forward rate of exchange S = the spot rate of exchange n = the number of months in the forward contract
  • 36. THE FORWARD MARKET C. Forward Contract Maturities 1. Contract Terms a. 30-day b. 90-day c. 180-day d. 360-day 2. Longer-term Contracts
  • 37. PART IV. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY I. INTRODUCTION A. The Theory states: the forward rate (F) differs from the spot rate (S) at equilibrium by an amount equal to the interest differential (rh - rf) between two countries.
  • 38. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY 2. The forward premium or discount equals the interest rate differential. (F - S)/S = (rh - rf) where rh = the home rate rf = the foreign rate
  • 39. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY 3. In equilibrium, returns on currencies will be the same i. e. No profit will be realized and interest parity exists which can be written (1 + rh) = F (1 + rf) S
  • 40. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY B. Covered Interest Arbitrage 1. Conditions required: interest rate differential does not equal the forward premium or discount. 2. Funds will move to a country with a more attractive rate.
  • 41. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY 3. Market pressures develop: a. As one currency is more demanded spot and sold forward. b. Inflow of fund depresses interest rates.
  • 42. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY C. Summary: Interest Rate Parity states: 1. Higher interest rates on a currency offset by forward discounts. 2. Lower interest rates are offset by forward premiums.