This document provides an overview of decision making by managers. It discusses the 8 steps in the decision making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) generating alternatives, 4) evaluating alternatives, 5) choosing an alternative, 6) implementing the decision, 7) evaluating the decision, and 8) repeating the process if needed. It also discusses rational decision making assumptions and the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment. Managers may make decisions rationally based on analysis or intuitively based on experience and judgment.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision making by managers from a chapter in a management textbook. It discusses the eight-step decision making process, types of decisions including programmed versus nonprogrammed, and decision making conditions such as certainty and risk. Key models and exhibits are presented to illustrate decision criteria weighting, alternative assessment, and the differences between structured and unstructured problems.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision making by managers from a chapter in a management textbook. It discusses the eight-step decision making process, types of decisions including programmed versus nonprogrammed, and decision making conditions such as certainty and risk. Key models and exhibits are presented to illustrate decision criteria weighting, alternative assessment, and the differences between structured and unstructured problems.
This chapter discusses operations management and key related concepts. It defines operations management as designing, operating, and controlling processes that transform inputs like labor and materials into goods and services. Value chain management aims to fully integrate all members of the production process to maximize value for customers. Current issues include using technology to automate manufacturing and quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma standards. The strategic role of operations management is also discussed.
Management Chapter no 7 Managers As Decision Makers.AzharFareed4
This document discusses managers as decision makers and the decision making process. It outlines the 8 steps managers take to make decisions: identify the problem, identify criteria, allocate weights, develop alternatives, analyze alternatives, select an alternative, implement, and evaluate. It also discusses different types of decisions like structured/programmed versus unstructured/non-programmed decisions and different decision making conditions like certainty, risk, and uncertainty.
Chapter 6 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
The document outlines key concepts about managerial decision making including:
1) The eight step decision making process involves identifying a problem, criteria, alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementation, and evaluation.
2) Managers face bounded rationality and may satisfice rather than optimize. They can also escalate commitment to past decisions.
3) Decisions are either programmed and routine or nonprogrammed and unique. They also occur under certainty, risk, or uncertainty.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision-making as discussed in Chapter 6 of a management textbook. It describes the eight steps in the decision-making process, including identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, selecting an alternative, and evaluating. It also discusses rational decision-making assumptions and limits, as well as intuitive decision-making. Different types of problems, decisions, policies, procedures and rules are outlined.
Decision making the essence of managers job MBABabasab Patil
Managers make decisions as an essential part of their job. The document outlines the steps in the decision-making process, including identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation, and evaluation. It also discusses rational and bounded rational decision making approaches, as well as the role of intuition. Managers face both well-structured and poorly-structured problems, and make programmed and nonprogrammed decisions under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty, using different decision-making styles.
This document discusses decision making and the manager's role in decision making. It outlines an 8-step decision making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses rational decision making and its assumptions, as well as bounded rationality and intuitive decision making. Managers must make decisions to solve problems and different types of problems involve different types of decisions.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision making by managers from a chapter in a management textbook. It discusses the eight-step decision making process, types of decisions including programmed versus nonprogrammed, and decision making conditions such as certainty and risk. Key models and exhibits are presented to illustrate decision criteria weighting, alternative assessment, and the differences between structured and unstructured problems.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision making by managers from a chapter in a management textbook. It discusses the eight-step decision making process, types of decisions including programmed versus nonprogrammed, and decision making conditions such as certainty and risk. Key models and exhibits are presented to illustrate decision criteria weighting, alternative assessment, and the differences between structured and unstructured problems.
This chapter discusses operations management and key related concepts. It defines operations management as designing, operating, and controlling processes that transform inputs like labor and materials into goods and services. Value chain management aims to fully integrate all members of the production process to maximize value for customers. Current issues include using technology to automate manufacturing and quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma standards. The strategic role of operations management is also discussed.
Management Chapter no 7 Managers As Decision Makers.AzharFareed4
This document discusses managers as decision makers and the decision making process. It outlines the 8 steps managers take to make decisions: identify the problem, identify criteria, allocate weights, develop alternatives, analyze alternatives, select an alternative, implement, and evaluate. It also discusses different types of decisions like structured/programmed versus unstructured/non-programmed decisions and different decision making conditions like certainty, risk, and uncertainty.
Chapter 6 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
The document outlines key concepts about managerial decision making including:
1) The eight step decision making process involves identifying a problem, criteria, alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementation, and evaluation.
2) Managers face bounded rationality and may satisfice rather than optimize. They can also escalate commitment to past decisions.
3) Decisions are either programmed and routine or nonprogrammed and unique. They also occur under certainty, risk, or uncertainty.
The document summarizes key aspects of decision-making as discussed in Chapter 6 of a management textbook. It describes the eight steps in the decision-making process, including identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, selecting an alternative, and evaluating. It also discusses rational decision-making assumptions and limits, as well as intuitive decision-making. Different types of problems, decisions, policies, procedures and rules are outlined.
Decision making the essence of managers job MBABabasab Patil
Managers make decisions as an essential part of their job. The document outlines the steps in the decision-making process, including identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation, and evaluation. It also discusses rational and bounded rational decision making approaches, as well as the role of intuition. Managers face both well-structured and poorly-structured problems, and make programmed and nonprogrammed decisions under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty, using different decision-making styles.
This document discusses decision making and the manager's role in decision making. It outlines an 8-step decision making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses rational decision making and its assumptions, as well as bounded rationality and intuitive decision making. Managers must make decisions to solve problems and different types of problems involve different types of decisions.
The document outlines the key aspects of decision making for managers. It discusses the 8 step decision making process, which includes identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analyzing alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementing it, and evaluating the decision. It also covers rational decision making assumptions and how bounded rationality, intuition, programmed vs unstructured decisions, decision making conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty, and decision styles impact the process. Maximizing, minimizing and regret matrices are presented as approaches to decision making under uncertainty.
1) Management involves planning, organizing, leading, and controlling organizational resources to efficiently and effectively achieve goals. Managers perform these functions at different levels and in various areas of organizations.
2) The basic management process consists of four functions: planning and decision making, organizing, leading, and controlling. Managers use different skills depending on their role and the situation.
3) Management requires both scientific and artistic abilities. Managers become effective through education, experience in various jobs, and developing interpersonal, conceptual, and diagnostic skills.
The document discusses control and organizational performance. It defines control as the process of monitoring activities to ensure they are accomplished as planned and correcting deviations. There are three approaches to control systems: market control using external measures, bureaucratic control emphasizing rules and procedures, and clan control regulating behavior through shared culture. The control process has three steps - measuring performance, comparing to standards, and taking action on deviations. Managers use various tools for organizational performance including financial ratios, budgets, balanced scorecards, and benchmarking.
This document provides an overview of chapter 7 from the textbook "Management" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. The chapter discusses the foundations of planning, including defining planning, the purposes of planning, and the relationship between planning and organizational performance. It also covers the key elements of planning such as goals, plans, types of goals (e.g. financial, strategic), and types of plans (e.g. strategic, operational, short-term, long-term). Traditional goal setting and Management By Objectives (MBO) are described as approaches to setting goals and developing plans.
Chapter 12 management (9 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
1) The document discusses managing organizational change and innovation. It defines key terms like change, change agents, organizational development techniques, and stresses the importance of managing resistance to change.
2) It examines different types of change including structural, technological, people-focused, and organizational development changes. It also looks at forces driving change within and outside organizations.
3) The document outlines Lewin's three-stage change model of unfreezing, changing, and refreezing. It also discusses stimulating innovation through creativity, champions of new ideas, and characteristics of innovative companies.
This document provides an outline for a chapter on strategic management. It discusses key topics like the strategic management process, types of organizational strategies, and competitive advantage. The strategic management process involves 6 steps: identifying the organization's mission and goals, doing an external and internal analysis, formulating strategies, implementing strategies, and evaluating results. There are three main types of corporate strategies - growth, stability, and renewal. Business-level strategies focus on how the organization will compete in each business unit. Competitive advantage is an organization's distinctive edge that can be achieved through quality.
The document discusses decision making and the decision-making process. It describes the 8 steps in the decision-making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to the criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses different types of decisions, decision making styles, biases that can influence decision making, and factors that influence the decision-making process.
1. The document provides an overview of key concepts from Chapter 18 of the textbook "Management: Arab World Edition" by Robbins, Coulter, Sidani, and Jamali. It discusses operations management, value chain management, quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and mass customization.
2. The chapter outlines learning outcomes on the role of operations management, value chain management, managing operations using value chains, current issues in operations, and key terms. It also provides exhibits on the value chain, obstacles to value chains, and quality dimensions.
3. The document summarizes concepts like defining operations management, contrasting manufacturing and service organizations, the strategic role of operations, requirements and obstacles for value
Operations management involves designing, operating, and controlling processes that transform inputs like labor and materials into goods and services for customers. It plays a strategic role in competitive success. Value chain management aims to integrate all activities from raw materials to the finished product to create maximum value for customers. It requires coordination, information technology, process changes, leadership, flexible employees, and a supportive culture. Barriers include organizational, cultural, capability, and people obstacles. Current issues include using technology to control costs, pursuing quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and enabling mass customization through flexible operations.
Chapter 7 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document is from a chapter about planning in a management textbook. It discusses the definition of planning as a primary managerial activity involving defining goals, strategies, and work plans. It describes the purposes of planning as providing direction, reducing uncertainty, and setting standards for control. Studies show a relationship between formal planning and higher profits/performance, though the external environment can reduce this impact. The document outlines different types of goals and plans, and discusses traditional goal setting, management by objectives, developing goals and plans, and contemporary issues in planning.
Chapter 13 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of chapter 13 from the textbook "Management" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. It covers the focus and goals of organizational behavior, including explaining, predicting, and influencing six important employee behaviors. It also discusses psychological factors that affect employee behavior, including attitudes, personality, perception, learning, job satisfaction, and workplace misbehavior. Managers can use this information to understand employee behavior and its impacts on productivity, absenteeism, turnover, and other important outcomes.
Chapter 3 - Creative Problem Solving and Decsion Makingdpd
After studying this chapter, students should be able to explain concepts related to creative problem solving and decision making, including listing the six steps in the decision-making model and describing differences between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. The document provides frameworks for classifying problems, setting objectives and criteria, generating alternatives, and analyzing options. It also discusses techniques like brainstorming, cost-benefit analysis, and participative decision models.
Chapter 18 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of chapter 18 from the textbook "Managing Operations" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. It covers the key topics in operations management including defining operations management, the role of operations managers in improving productivity, value chain management, quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and current issues like the role of technology and mass customization. The learning outcomes at the start list the main sections and key concepts covered in the chapter.
In the age of speed, making decisions quickly is critical to project success. This presentation considers the decision making process, decision making styles, and how to focus and tailor discussions to arrive at meaningful decisions quickly.
Chapter 17 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of controlling as the final step in the management process. It discusses the importance of control, describes the three steps in the control process, and explains how managers measure and control organizational performance. Key tools for controlling performance include financial ratios, budgets, balanced scorecards, and information systems. The document also covers contemporary control issues around cross-cultural differences, workplace concerns, and customer interactions.
This document outlines the key aspects of managerial decision making. It discusses the rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision making, as well as the role of intuition. It describes the eight-step decision making process and differentiates between well-structured and poorly-structured problems. Managers must make decisions under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Their decision making style influences the process and can be directive, analytic, conceptual, or behavioral. The ultimate goal is to choose the best alternative, implement it, and evaluate the outcome.
This document outlines the key topics to be covered in Chapter 9 of the textbook, which discusses organizational structure and design. The learning outline previews the major elements that define organizational structure, including work specialization, departmentalization, chain of command, span of control, and centralization/decentralization. It also covers organizational design decisions around mechanistic vs organic structures and how factors like strategy, size, technology and environment influence design. Common structure types like functional, divisional and matrix are introduced. In summarizing the chapter, the document emphasizes defining the building blocks of organizational structure and how various design elements are chosen.
The document discusses organizational change and transformation, comparing the approaches taken by Xerox and ABB/ASEA. It addresses several aspects of change including the organizational context, nature of change, categories of change, forces driving change, barriers to change, and models for managing change as a planned process or in a turbulent "white water" environment. The key forces and levels of change are identified for each company, noting Xerox transitioned through quality and business process reforms while ABB/ASEA transformed from a domestic to multinational firm under new leadership.
This document provides an overview of the course "PGDBA101 Strategic Leadership and Management Skills". It covers 4 themes: influence and power, motivation, communication, and teams. For each theme, it outlines relevant theories, models, and concepts. It also provides learning objectives and examples of companies that demonstrate each theme. The goal is to examine how leadership influences others, theories of workplace behavior, aspects of organizational communication, and the significance of teams.
This document provides an outline for a chapter on communication and information technology. It discusses key topics like the difference between interpersonal and organizational communication, the communication process, barriers to effective communication, and how technology impacts organizational communication. The learning outline is divided into sections on understanding communication, the interpersonal communication process, organizational communication, information technology, and communication issues in modern organizations. It includes exhibits that define communication methods, compare their effectiveness, and illustrate different communication networks in organizations. The overall document serves as a guide for students to learn about communication concepts from an organizational behavior textbook.
The document discusses the eight step process of decision making. It begins by defining what a decision is and the difference between decision making and decision taking. It then outlines the eight steps in the decision making process which are: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision. It provides an example of a manager going through these steps to decide which laptop computers to purchase for employees. Finally, it discusses guidelines for making effective decisions, including understanding cultural differences and using an effective decision making process.
This document discusses principles of management related to decision making. It describes the eight steps in the decision making process as identifying a problem, criteria, weights, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation, and evaluation. It also discusses three decision making models: rational, bounded rationality, and intuition. Finally, it classifies decisions as structured/programmed or unstructured/non-programmed and discusses biases that can affect decision making.
The document outlines the key aspects of decision making for managers. It discusses the 8 step decision making process, which includes identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analyzing alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementing it, and evaluating the decision. It also covers rational decision making assumptions and how bounded rationality, intuition, programmed vs unstructured decisions, decision making conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty, and decision styles impact the process. Maximizing, minimizing and regret matrices are presented as approaches to decision making under uncertainty.
1) Management involves planning, organizing, leading, and controlling organizational resources to efficiently and effectively achieve goals. Managers perform these functions at different levels and in various areas of organizations.
2) The basic management process consists of four functions: planning and decision making, organizing, leading, and controlling. Managers use different skills depending on their role and the situation.
3) Management requires both scientific and artistic abilities. Managers become effective through education, experience in various jobs, and developing interpersonal, conceptual, and diagnostic skills.
The document discusses control and organizational performance. It defines control as the process of monitoring activities to ensure they are accomplished as planned and correcting deviations. There are three approaches to control systems: market control using external measures, bureaucratic control emphasizing rules and procedures, and clan control regulating behavior through shared culture. The control process has three steps - measuring performance, comparing to standards, and taking action on deviations. Managers use various tools for organizational performance including financial ratios, budgets, balanced scorecards, and benchmarking.
This document provides an overview of chapter 7 from the textbook "Management" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. The chapter discusses the foundations of planning, including defining planning, the purposes of planning, and the relationship between planning and organizational performance. It also covers the key elements of planning such as goals, plans, types of goals (e.g. financial, strategic), and types of plans (e.g. strategic, operational, short-term, long-term). Traditional goal setting and Management By Objectives (MBO) are described as approaches to setting goals and developing plans.
Chapter 12 management (9 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
1) The document discusses managing organizational change and innovation. It defines key terms like change, change agents, organizational development techniques, and stresses the importance of managing resistance to change.
2) It examines different types of change including structural, technological, people-focused, and organizational development changes. It also looks at forces driving change within and outside organizations.
3) The document outlines Lewin's three-stage change model of unfreezing, changing, and refreezing. It also discusses stimulating innovation through creativity, champions of new ideas, and characteristics of innovative companies.
This document provides an outline for a chapter on strategic management. It discusses key topics like the strategic management process, types of organizational strategies, and competitive advantage. The strategic management process involves 6 steps: identifying the organization's mission and goals, doing an external and internal analysis, formulating strategies, implementing strategies, and evaluating results. There are three main types of corporate strategies - growth, stability, and renewal. Business-level strategies focus on how the organization will compete in each business unit. Competitive advantage is an organization's distinctive edge that can be achieved through quality.
The document discusses decision making and the decision-making process. It describes the 8 steps in the decision-making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to the criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses different types of decisions, decision making styles, biases that can influence decision making, and factors that influence the decision-making process.
1. The document provides an overview of key concepts from Chapter 18 of the textbook "Management: Arab World Edition" by Robbins, Coulter, Sidani, and Jamali. It discusses operations management, value chain management, quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and mass customization.
2. The chapter outlines learning outcomes on the role of operations management, value chain management, managing operations using value chains, current issues in operations, and key terms. It also provides exhibits on the value chain, obstacles to value chains, and quality dimensions.
3. The document summarizes concepts like defining operations management, contrasting manufacturing and service organizations, the strategic role of operations, requirements and obstacles for value
Operations management involves designing, operating, and controlling processes that transform inputs like labor and materials into goods and services for customers. It plays a strategic role in competitive success. Value chain management aims to integrate all activities from raw materials to the finished product to create maximum value for customers. It requires coordination, information technology, process changes, leadership, flexible employees, and a supportive culture. Barriers include organizational, cultural, capability, and people obstacles. Current issues include using technology to control costs, pursuing quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and enabling mass customization through flexible operations.
Chapter 7 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document is from a chapter about planning in a management textbook. It discusses the definition of planning as a primary managerial activity involving defining goals, strategies, and work plans. It describes the purposes of planning as providing direction, reducing uncertainty, and setting standards for control. Studies show a relationship between formal planning and higher profits/performance, though the external environment can reduce this impact. The document outlines different types of goals and plans, and discusses traditional goal setting, management by objectives, developing goals and plans, and contemporary issues in planning.
Chapter 13 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of chapter 13 from the textbook "Management" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. It covers the focus and goals of organizational behavior, including explaining, predicting, and influencing six important employee behaviors. It also discusses psychological factors that affect employee behavior, including attitudes, personality, perception, learning, job satisfaction, and workplace misbehavior. Managers can use this information to understand employee behavior and its impacts on productivity, absenteeism, turnover, and other important outcomes.
Chapter 3 - Creative Problem Solving and Decsion Makingdpd
After studying this chapter, students should be able to explain concepts related to creative problem solving and decision making, including listing the six steps in the decision-making model and describing differences between programmed and nonprogrammed decisions. The document provides frameworks for classifying problems, setting objectives and criteria, generating alternatives, and analyzing options. It also discusses techniques like brainstorming, cost-benefit analysis, and participative decision models.
Chapter 18 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of chapter 18 from the textbook "Managing Operations" by Stephen P. Robbins and Mary Coulter. It covers the key topics in operations management including defining operations management, the role of operations managers in improving productivity, value chain management, quality initiatives like ISO 9000 and Six Sigma, and current issues like the role of technology and mass customization. The learning outcomes at the start list the main sections and key concepts covered in the chapter.
In the age of speed, making decisions quickly is critical to project success. This presentation considers the decision making process, decision making styles, and how to focus and tailor discussions to arrive at meaningful decisions quickly.
Chapter 17 management (10 th edition) by robbins and coulterMd. Abul Ala
This document provides an overview of controlling as the final step in the management process. It discusses the importance of control, describes the three steps in the control process, and explains how managers measure and control organizational performance. Key tools for controlling performance include financial ratios, budgets, balanced scorecards, and information systems. The document also covers contemporary control issues around cross-cultural differences, workplace concerns, and customer interactions.
This document outlines the key aspects of managerial decision making. It discusses the rational and boundedly rational approaches to decision making, as well as the role of intuition. It describes the eight-step decision making process and differentiates between well-structured and poorly-structured problems. Managers must make decisions under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty. Their decision making style influences the process and can be directive, analytic, conceptual, or behavioral. The ultimate goal is to choose the best alternative, implement it, and evaluate the outcome.
This document outlines the key topics to be covered in Chapter 9 of the textbook, which discusses organizational structure and design. The learning outline previews the major elements that define organizational structure, including work specialization, departmentalization, chain of command, span of control, and centralization/decentralization. It also covers organizational design decisions around mechanistic vs organic structures and how factors like strategy, size, technology and environment influence design. Common structure types like functional, divisional and matrix are introduced. In summarizing the chapter, the document emphasizes defining the building blocks of organizational structure and how various design elements are chosen.
The document discusses organizational change and transformation, comparing the approaches taken by Xerox and ABB/ASEA. It addresses several aspects of change including the organizational context, nature of change, categories of change, forces driving change, barriers to change, and models for managing change as a planned process or in a turbulent "white water" environment. The key forces and levels of change are identified for each company, noting Xerox transitioned through quality and business process reforms while ABB/ASEA transformed from a domestic to multinational firm under new leadership.
This document provides an overview of the course "PGDBA101 Strategic Leadership and Management Skills". It covers 4 themes: influence and power, motivation, communication, and teams. For each theme, it outlines relevant theories, models, and concepts. It also provides learning objectives and examples of companies that demonstrate each theme. The goal is to examine how leadership influences others, theories of workplace behavior, aspects of organizational communication, and the significance of teams.
This document provides an outline for a chapter on communication and information technology. It discusses key topics like the difference between interpersonal and organizational communication, the communication process, barriers to effective communication, and how technology impacts organizational communication. The learning outline is divided into sections on understanding communication, the interpersonal communication process, organizational communication, information technology, and communication issues in modern organizations. It includes exhibits that define communication methods, compare their effectiveness, and illustrate different communication networks in organizations. The overall document serves as a guide for students to learn about communication concepts from an organizational behavior textbook.
The document discusses the eight step process of decision making. It begins by defining what a decision is and the difference between decision making and decision taking. It then outlines the eight steps in the decision making process which are: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision. It provides an example of a manager going through these steps to decide which laptop computers to purchase for employees. Finally, it discusses guidelines for making effective decisions, including understanding cultural differences and using an effective decision making process.
This document discusses principles of management related to decision making. It describes the eight steps in the decision making process as identifying a problem, criteria, weights, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation, and evaluation. It also discusses three decision making models: rational, bounded rationality, and intuition. Finally, it classifies decisions as structured/programmed or unstructured/non-programmed and discusses biases that can affect decision making.
The document outlines the eight steps of the decision-making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the alternative, and 8) evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses programmed decisions for structured, recurring problems, and nonprogrammed decisions for unique, unstructured problems that require custom solutions. Exhibits provide examples of applying the decision-making process to choosing a new laptop computer.
This document provides information about decision making and decision making styles. It discusses that decision making involves identifying and selecting a course of action to solve a problem. It then gives examples of easy and difficult decisions. It outlines the steps in decision making which include identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation and evaluation. It also discusses different decision making styles such as directive, analytical, conceptual and behavioral. The document uses an example of setting up a computer lab to illustrate the decision making process and selection of the best alternative based on predetermined criteria and weights.
This PowerPoint presentation covers key aspects of decision making including: the 8 step decision making process; rational and bounded rational decision making; programmed and nonprogrammed decisions; decision making under certainty, risk and uncertainty; common decision making biases; and characteristics of effective decision making. The presentation provides an overview of concepts and frameworks for understanding organizational decision making.
The Decision-Making Process
Define decision and decision-making process.
Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.
Explain the challenges managers face in identifying problems.
Discuss why decision criteria are important in the decision-making process.
Describe how managers develop, analyze, and select alternatives.
Explain what happens during implementation and evaluation.
Managers make both programmed and non-programmed decisions. Programmed decisions involve familiar problems that can be solved through established procedures or policies. Non-programmed decisions involve novel problems that require unique solutions. The rational decision-making process involves identifying the problem, criteria for evaluating alternatives, developing and analyzing alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementation, and evaluation. However, managers face limits on their rationality due to bounded rationality and may rely more on intuition for uncertain or complex problems. Common decision-making biases can negatively impact the quality of decisions if not addressed.
The document discusses decision analysis and outlines the steps involved in making good decisions, including clearly defining the problem, listing alternatives and outcomes, evaluating alternatives using decision models, and selecting the best alternative. It provides an example of a lumber company evaluating whether to expand its product line by manufacturing backyard storage sheds, walking through the steps of defining the problem, listing alternatives, assessing potential profits in favorable and unfavorable market conditions, and selecting the optimal alternative using a decision table.
Organizational Planning And Goal Setting MGT 201 Helpful Slides For Management Students Of Different Universities In Karachi And All Over Pakistan And World
The document outlines learning objectives for a chapter on decision making. It discusses the eight steps in the decision-making process, factors that influence decision making like bounded rationality and intuition. It also describes different types of decisions, biases that can affect decision making, and strategies for effective decision making in complex environments.
This document provides an overview of decision making processes. It discusses key topics like the decision making stages, models, styles, and implementation. The rational and bounded rational models of decision making are described. The seven step decision making process involves defining goals, gathering data, brainstorming alternatives, analyzing pros and cons, making the decision, taking action, and reflecting on the outcome. Group decision making has four stages: orientation, conflict, emergence, and reinforcement. Tools like Pareto analysis, SWOT analysis, and orienting SWOTs to objectives are also summarized.
The document outlines the steps in the decision making process: 1) identifying the problem, 2) determining decision criteria and assigning weights to criteria based on importance, 3) developing alternatives, 4) analyzing alternatives based on their ability to resolve the problem and criteria, 5) selecting the best alternative, 6) implementing the selected alternative, and 7) evaluating whether the problem was resolved. Key aspects of decision making include examining options, comparing them, and choosing a course of action to address discrepancies between the current and desired state.
The document discusses decision making in management. It begins by outlining the objectives of understanding decision making and examines the steps in the decision making process. It then defines decision making as identifying and choosing alternative courses of action to solve problems. The key steps in the decision making process are: 1) diagnosing the problem, 2) analyzing the internal and external environment, 3) developing viable alternatives, 4) evaluating alternatives, 5) making a choice, 6) implementing the decision, and 7) evaluating and adapting the decision results using feedback. The document also discusses qualitative and quantitative approaches to decision making and provides examples of quantitative techniques.
This document outlines the key aspects of decision-making as discussed in Chapter 6. It begins by defining decision and decision-making process. It then describes the eight steps in the decision-making process as identifying the problem, identifying decision criteria, allocating weights, developing alternatives, analyzing alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementing the alternative, and evaluating the decision's effectiveness. It also discusses rational decision-making and its assumptions, as well as the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment in decision-making. The document provides examples and exhibits to illustrate decision-making concepts.
This document provides an overview of decision-making and the decision-making process for managers. It discusses rational and bounded rational decision-making, programmed and non-programmed decisions, decision-making styles, and common decision-making biases. The eight steps of the decision-making process are identified as: 1) identifying the problem, 2) identifying decision criteria, 3) allocating weights to criteria, 4) developing alternatives, 5) analyzing alternatives, 6) selecting an alternative, 7) implementing the decision, and 8) evaluating the decision. Managerial decision-making involves addressing problems under conditions of certainty, risk, and uncertainty.
The document discusses various aspects of decision making including:
1. The decision making process involves 7 stages - identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, analysis, selection, implementation and evaluation.
2. There are different models of decision making like the rational model which uses optimization and bounded rationality which uses satisficing.
3. Decision styles can be reflexive, reflective or consistent. The consistent style balances rushing and wasting time.
4. Key steps in organizational decision making involve outlining goals, gathering data, brainstorming alternatives, analyzing pros and cons, making the decision, taking action and learning from the process.
Problem Solving and Decision Making - II.pptxMukeshReddy62
The document discusses a mentorship program focused on problem solving and decision making. It provides guidance on using a decision making matrix to systematically evaluate alternatives and select the best option. The matrix involves listing options and important factors, scoring each option, assigning weights to factors, multiplying scores by weights, and selecting the highest scoring option. The document also discusses creating action plans with SMART goals and milestones to implement solutions. It emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring to ensure plans are on track and make adjustments if needed.
The document discusses internal analysis and decision-making. It provides an overview of tools for internal analysis, including the SWOT analysis and discusses how to properly interpret strengths and weaknesses. It also outlines the eight step decision-making process and factors that influence decision-making such as bounded rationality and intuition. Managers are encouraged to avoid decision-making biases by gaining multiple perspectives and considering all relevant information.
The document discusses internal analysis and the SWOT analysis tool. It provides guidance on properly conducting a SWOT analysis, including accurately identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. A key point is that strengths and weaknesses should be framed from the customer's perspective, focusing on how they satisfy or fail to satisfy customers. The document also warns of potential issues with SWOT analyses, such as them becoming vague or irrelevant, and emphasizes the importance of staying focused on the customer.
The document discusses decision making, including defining it as choosing between alternatives. It outlines the steps in decision making as identifying the problem, criteria, alternatives, choosing one, and evaluating. It also discusses factors that affect decision making like inadequate information, time constraints, and the decision maker's experience and values. Group decision making can benefit from more perspectives but is slower, and individual decisions may be quicker but narrower in perspective. Modern approaches to problem solving include brainstorming, nominal group technique, and Delphi technique.
Similar to Ch no. 6 Managing as Decision Makers (20)
Text Mining - Advanced Customer AnalyticsAqib Syed
Text mining is a process of deriving/extracting high quality meaningful information and patterns.
Text analysis involves information retrieval, analysis to study word frequency distributions, pattern recognition, information extraction, data mining techniques including link and association analysis, visualization, and predictive analytics.
A research study applying Text Mining and Machine Learning tools.
The authors find that loan applicants' choice of words reveals insights into their intentions, circumstances, and personality.
This information is powerful in predicting loan repayment, going beyond typical financial and demographic factors.
Potential borrowers submit their request for a loan for a specific amount with a specific maximum interest rate (they are willing to pay).
The loan amount they wish to borrow must in (between $1,000 and $25,000 in the data).
Prosper verifies all financial information, including the potential borrower’s credit score.
Textual variables:
The number of characters in the title and the text box.
The percentage of words with six or more letters.
SMOG: This measures writing quality by mapping it to number of years of formal education needed to easily understand the text in first reading.
Count of spelling mistakes.
Bigrams : Two-word combinations (help to understand the context and the pattern).
Financial variable:
Loan amount, borrower’s credit grade, Debt to income ratio.
Demographic variables:
Gender, age, location, race.
Aim:
To evaluate whether the text used by borrowers in their loan application predicts their loan default.
Machine Learning Methods:
Ensemble stacking approach
Train each model on the calibration data (2 logistics regression and 3 tree-based methods).
Build a weighting model to combine the models calibrated in the first model.
KNOWLEDGE BASED ENTREPRENEURSHIP - ALT Business Plan59cc9dee8.pdfAqib Syed
Moving from one country to another is just as usual as going to another city in this global village. People move for their work, study, or to immigrate. Due to this closeness of the boundary, things are getting available everywhere, and people are less likely to compromise to satisfy their demands. This is also relevant to food which is why we observe the growing trend of various restaurants everywhere, but when it comes to cooking food, there are still some unfulfilled areas. That is where we tried to look for a problem to solve for the consumers.
1.2 Vision
“To be Norway’s best provider of 1000+ varieties of authentic baskets with tastes from all over the world contributing towards sharing the food culture.”
1.3 Mission
Our mission is to offer an authentic taste experience in each basket we sell by supplementing traditional ingredients from different countries under one e-platform. We will offer customizable baskets based on the number of servings and a digital recipe book in each basket that instructs the food enthusiast on the proper ingredients and amount to be utilized while cooking their favorite or different cuisines. Customer satisfaction will be our top priority because it will ultimately help us generate greater demand and accomplish our vision.
Challenged-Based Learning Project on IVAR IKS (Digitalisation and sustainabil...Aqib Syed
IVAR is a company owned by Stavanger, Sola, Sandnes, Gjesdal, Hå, Time, Strand, Hjelmeland, Kvitsøy, Randaberg, Klepp and Suldal- kommune. It stands for Interkommunalt Vann Avløp Renovasjon. It has the responsibility for the sanitation, drainage and renovation in the region. Their vision is to have a society where nothing gets wasted (IVAR, 2021). At the same time, they are working on utilizing the resources they get in everyday in a productive and efficient way.
Their goal as a company as they are treating water is to be able to throw out sewage and wastewater to the ocean, without harming the marine life in it (IVAR,2021). While they also recycle the wastes that comes in every day. This makes them able to produce biogas and fertilizer.
We contacted the company via the email ivar@ivar.no and Mr Audun Roalkvam Head of recycling department at IVAR. At the Head office of IVAR at Mariero in Stavanger he gave us a brief interview. During this interview he gave us the answears for our most important questions. This report will proceed further in the light of factual insights provided by Mr Audun.
Why IVAR?
There was a bit confusion to select in between various restaurants, mega grocery stores or wastage management companies. After some initial discussion with the team, we decided to form a list of different interrelated questions regarding food wastage and we went to Rema 1000, Coop Mega, and Kiwi on the first outdoor visit and they gave us some emails to contact to right person in the company. We sent them emails with our questions but still could not get the answers. However, meanwhile we decided to finalize the one restaurant which may be popular and having a good traffic of customers as the food wastage could be a mandatory problem for them. Hence, we explored Villa 22, Olivia Torget, Egon Stavanger and Harry Pepper. After few hours of Intractive interview sessions with the staff and concerned person, we ended up concluding that they were doing their best to minimize food wastage. We came to know that it is a legal practice to throw the partially eaten or even the untouched food coming from the customer’s table so we can't do much about that, and regarding the food which is left behind is the refrigerator and can get expired within few days, they answered that our professional chefs are intelligent enough hence they know how precisely they can get the most out of it before it gets expired. Conversely, we were not satisfied on this response because it is nearly impossible to have a that precise check and balance in the inventory which is fragile as we also found a verbal evidence from other restaurants that they said we encourage our working staff to take that food which is going get expired within few days and it is not required anymore. That was where we ended up concluding that our first question is not worth anymore to work on it so it led us to reconsider our second question on how to improve food waste more efficiently with digitalization
E Scooters in Scandinavia and SustainabilityAqib Syed
This article describes the result on how electrical scooters and their swappable batteries have an impact on the environment. One of the leading companies, called TIER, has been selected for the analysis and exploration of the sustainability proposition. There will be an in-depth analysis of both circular and linear economies in terms of the company's perspective. The research is based on both theories from different articles, but also by an anonymous survey sent out to people.
Through the survey, it’s been observed an insight into how important sustainability and the environment are for the individual. Furthermore, the various answers in the survey stated that many chose to use electric scooters both because of accessibility, but also because of the environment. All this related to linear and circular economy, shows that TIER has thought about reuse by using reusable swappable batteries.
The conclusion that was drawn in this text is that for many, climate, environment and sustainability are important facts when it comes to everyday choices. Using recycling, instead of throwing away products, is important. Furthermore, one can then see that the survey corresponds with much of the theoretical basis.
The Great Leader Muhammad Ali Jinnah
This presentation was a project of History of Sub Continent. Dr Zabir Saeed Badar are supporting the "batch of 2019 BBA (Hons) Semester 7"
Sir Syed Ahmed Khan Bahadur -History of PakistanAqib Syed
Sir Syed Ahmed Khan was an Indian scholar and reformist who founded the Muhammadan Anglo-Oriental College, which later developed into the Aligarh Muslim University. He realized the importance of education for Muslims and opened several schools and societies. In 1877, he established the Muhammadan Anglo-Oriental College, which aimed to modernize Muslims through Western education while preserving their Islamic and cultural identity. Through his writings and educational initiatives, Sir Syed strived to improve relations between Muslims and the British and promote unity between the two communities.
Pakistan Resolution 1940 -History of PakistanAqib Syed
Pakistan Resolution 1940 -History of Pakistan
This Documentary was a project of History of Sub Continent. Dr Zabir Saeed Badar are supporting the "batch of 2019 BBA (Hons) Semester 7"
Rise of Mughal Empire (1625-1707)- History of SubContinentAqib Syed
Rise of Mughal Empire (1625-1707)- History of SubContinent
This Documentary was a project of History of Sub Continent. Dr Zabir Saeed Badar are supporting the "batch of 2019 BBA (Hons) Semester 7".
Decline of Mughals (1707-1857) -History of SubContinentAqib Syed
Decline of Mughals (1707-1857) -History of SubContinent
This Documentary was a project of History of Sub Continent. Dr Zabir Saeed Badar are supporting the "batch of 2019 BBA (Hons) Semester 7".
All the footage is recorded in Lahore Museum, Mall Road Lahore.
BBA Semester 7 (Batch 2015-2019)
GroupMembers:
Syed Aqib Ali
Mudassar Ahmad
Rizwan Naseer
Muhammad Huzaifa
Nimra Shafiq
Special Thanks to Prof. Zabir Saeed Badar.
You can watch a detailed video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WF-tvxlflk&t=26s
Allama Muhammad Iqbal as a Dreamer of Pakistan- History of SubContinentAqib Syed
Allama Muhammad Iqbal as a Dreamer of Pakistan- History of SubContinent
Sir Muhammad Iqbal (November 9, 1877 – April 21, 1938), widely known as Allama Iqbal, was a Muslim poet and philosopher . He became the national poet of Pakistan. He is also known as the poet of East. He wrote poetry in Urdu and Persian. His poetry is considered to be revolutionary.[1] His vision of an independent state for the Muslims of British India was a starting point for the creation of Pakistan. He is commonly referred to as Dr Allama Iqbal.
East Pakistan Separation- History of SubContinentAqib Syed
East Pakistan Separation- History of SubContinent
Political system in Pakistan broke down in 1971 because of output failure arising out of conflict among East and West Pakistan.
Though separation of East Pakistan occurred in 1971, the separation’s elements had begun to work with the emergence of Pakistan in 1947. Following were the main causes of the separation of East Pakistan.
General Muhammad Zia Ul Haq - Dictatorship in PakistanAqib Syed
General Muhammad Zia Ul Haq - Dictatorship in Pakistan
Zia was born in Jalandhar, British India, in 1924 asthe second child of Muhammad Akbar, who workedin the Army GHQ in Delhi and Selma, prior to theliberation of Pakistan from British colonial rule in1947.
He completed his initial education in Selma andthen attended St. Stephen's College, Delhi for hisgraduate degree. After graduation from St. XavierCollege, Zia joined the British Indian Army in 1943.
In 1957, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto became the youngest
member of Pakistan's delegation to the United Nations.
As his father was politically active, Bhutto had learned
politics and its affairs from very early age.
In 1958, he became Pakistan’s youngest cabinet
minister. He was assigned ministry of Water and
Power.
He was then given ministry of Commerce,
Communication and Industry.
Close and trustworthy to Ayub Khan.
Indus Water Treaty and Oil Exploration Agreement.
1963, Bhutto became Foreign Minister.
Ashoka- The Great _History of SubcontinentAqib Syed
Ashoka- The Great _History of Subcontinent
Ashoka, sometimes Ashoka the Great, was an Indian emperor of the Maurya Dynasty, who ruled almost all of the Indian subcontinent from c. 268 to 232 BCE.
This Documentary was a project of History of Sub Continent. Dr Zabir Saeed Badar are supporting the "batch of 2019 BBA (hons) Semester 7".
BBA Semester 7 (Batch 2015-2019)
GroupMembers:
Hamza Walayat
Muhammad Usman
Muhammad Zeeshan
Mian Umer
Rana Furqan
Touqeer Ashraf
Perception and Marketing- Consumer BehaviorAqib Syed
A research technique that enables marketers to plot graphically consumers’ perceptions concerning product attributes of specific brands.
Perception and Marketing- Consumer Behavior
A High–Involvement Learning Situation is one in which the consumer is motivated to process or learn the material.
A Low–Involvement Learning Situation is one in which the consumer has a little or no motivation to process or learn the material.
Exposure, Attention and Interpretation -Consumer BehaviorAqib Syed
Exposure, Attention and Interpretation -Consumer Behavior
Exposure provides consumers with the opportunity to pay attention to available information but in no way guarantees it.
Exposure
Kinds of Exposure
Examples of exposure
Attention
Kinds of Attention
Examples of Attention
Interpretation
Kinds of Interpretation
Examples of Interpretation
Emotions and Marketing Strategy- Cosnumer BehaviorAqib Syed
Emotions and Marketing Strategy- Cosnumer Behavior
We all experience hundreds of emotions and there are no words to explain all of them
Emotion can be positive an negative ; they can give happiness or unhappiness and discomfort.
An attitude is a hypothetical construct
that represents an individual's degree of
like or dislike for an item.
Types of Attitude
Functions of Attitude
Elements of Attitude
Theories of Attitude
Measuring Sources of Brand Equity -Brand ManagementAqib Syed
Measuring the sources of brand equity.
The use of social media platforms and websites to promote a product or service. (Wikipedia)
Refers to techniques that target social networks and applications to spread brand awareness or promote particular products. (Techopedia)
Facebook Marketing Strategy with SNJ Global Services.pptxsarfrazkhanm47
Explore the potential of Facebook marketing with SNJ Global Services. We specialize in targeted ad campaigns and engaging content strategies to enhance your brand's visibility and drive conversions. Discover more about our solutions at SNJ Global Services:
https://snjglobalservices.com/.
6 Tips For Restaurant Social Media Marketing.pdfMetric Connect
Dive into Metric Connect's expertly crafted guide, "6 Tips For Restaurant Social Media Marketing," and transform your restaurant's social media approach. This PDF offers practical, easy-to-implement tips that will help you build a stronger online presence, connect with your customers, and ultimately increase your restaurant's success. Whether you're just starting out or looking to refine your strategy, this guide is your key to mastering social media marketing for restaurants.
This document was submitted as part of interview process for Marketing Specialist position at DTA Promotion, an Indonesian company which offers 360 degree marketing services, including ATL and BTL advertising platform.
3 Best “Add to Calendar” Link Generator Tools (2024)Y
“Add to Calendar” link generator tools allow users to create links that add events directly to digital calendars like Google Calendar, Apple Calendar, and Outlook.
These tools simplify event scheduling by generating short URLs or QR codes that, when clicked or scanned, automatically insert event details into a user’s calendar.
They are ideal for streamlining the promotion of events in emails, websites, and social media, enhancing engagement and ensuring attendees don’t miss important dates.
These tools are designed to cater to diverse needs, from personal event planning to professional event promotion, ensuring your attendees can easily add events to their preferred calendar.
Cal.et is a versatile and user-friendly tool that allows you to create “Add to Calendar” links for seamless event scheduling and promotion.
Transforming Digital Marketing with Top AI Tools of 2024.pdfTirupati Gayaph
In today's rapidly evolving digital marketing landscape, leveraging advanced technologies is essential for achieving competitive advantage. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is at the forefront of this transformation, providing businesses with innovative tools to enhance engagement, streamline operations, and optimize strategies. This presentation covers some of the leading AI marketing tools that are revolutionizing the industry in 2024.
Slide 1: Introduction to AI in Marketing
• Overview of AI’s impact on digital marketing
• Importance of integrating AI tools in marketing strategies
Slide 2: HubSpot’s AI Features
• Predictive lead scoring
• AI-driven content recommendations
• Enhancing customer relationship management
Slide 3: OpenAI’s ChatGPT
• Human-like text generation for chatbots
• Real-time customer support solutions
• Improving customer engagement and satisfaction
Slide 4: Marketo’s AI Capabilities
• Automated email marketing
• Predictive content and customer segmentation
• Personalized marketing for increased conversions
Slide 5: Mailchimp’s AI-Powered Campaigns
• Predictive email sending times
• AI for personalized product recommendations
• Optimizing email marketing effectiveness
Slide 6: Canva’s AI Design Tools
• AI-powered design suggestions
• Access to current design trends
• Simplifying the creation of professional marketing materials
Slide 7: Hootsuite’s AI-Enhanced Social Media Tools
• AI-driven analytics for social media management
• Optimal posting times based on audience insights
• Enhancing social media strategy with data-driven decisions
Slide 8: Conclusion
• Recap of the benefits of AI marketing tools
• The importance of adopting AI technologies in marketing
• Call to explore our blog on Best AI Marketing Tools for more insights
These AI marketing tools are essential for businesses that want to harness the power of AI to enhance their marketing efforts. By adopting these technologies, companies can achieve more personalized customer interactions, efficient operations, and improved marketing outcomes.
For an in-depth understanding of how these AI marketing tools can transform your marketing approach, please visit our blog on Best AI Marketing Tools.
Explore Premium Graphic Design Templates for versatile use.
Discover Endless Possibilities with Our costume design template. Download Templates or customise them with an easy-to-excess policy. Let’s transform Your Ideas into Masterpieces!
https://graphypix.com/
E-Learning Vs Traditional Learning_ Benefits and Differences.pdfMega P
E-learning and traditional learning are two distinct approaches to education, each offering unique advantages and facing specific challenges. E-learning provides flexibility and convenience, allowing students to access materials and complete assignments at their own pace and schedule. Traditional learning fosters direct, face-to-face interaction between students and instructors, which can enhance communication, immediate feedback, and a sense of community.
A brief analysis of SHEIN's digital transformation.
SHEIN’s business model:
1. D2C cross-border ecommerce: SHEIN integrate the manufactures from Guanzhou to make clothes and deliver direct to customers.
2. Digital marketing: Data driven online marketing for user acquisition.
3. Digital transforming vendor chain: the most core of the revolution to shorten the innovation and lead time.
4. Outstanding user experience: International delivery in high efficiency
Leverage four parts of the user satisfaction process and integrate related resource and information flow, which making SHEIN an international leading D2C ecommerce company.
• Keeping utilizing data in all process is another core capability. From the page click, sales metrics, fabric sourcing to manufacturing time, all data is integrated for decision making, leading an upward customer preference and much efficient business decision making process.
Why bridging the gap between PR and SEO is the only way forward for PR Profes...Isa Lavs
The lines between PR and SEO are blurring. SEOs are increasingly winning PR briefs by leveraging data and content to secure high-value placements. In this presentation, I explore the merging of PR and SEO, highlighting why SEO specialists are increasingly taking ‘PR’ business. I uncover the hidden SEO potential using PR tactics and discuss how to identify missed opportunities. I'll also offer insights into strategies for converting PR initiatives into successful link-building campaigns.
Universal Merit Awards Sri Lanka Marketing by Franchise Batao.pdfFranchiseBatao
Universal Merit Awards 2024: Celebrating Global Talent in Colombo
The vibrant city of Colombo, Sri Lanka, will host the Universal Merit Awards 2024 on August 7 at the BMICH International Convention Centre. This prestigious event will celebrate exceptional talents from around the world.
Chief Guest: Former President and Prime Minister of Sri Lanka, His Excellency Shri Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Organizers:
Prof. Kartik Rawal, founder of Allso Group
Ashish Kumar Aggarwal, founder of Franchise Batao
Dushyant Pratap Singh, Bollywood director
Praveen Kumar Joshi, astrologer
Local Arrangements: Sri Lankan music composer and singer, Priyantha Ratnayake.
The event will honour individuals from 12 countries for their outstanding contributions. Attendees can expect a night of glitz, glamour, and inspiring performances, providing a valuable platform for networking and collaboration.
Join us in Colombo for an extraordinary celebration of global excellence on August 7, 2024!
2. 6–2
Learning OutcomesLearning Outcomes
Follow this Learning Outline as you read andFollow this Learning Outline as you read and
study this chapter.study this chapter.
6.1 The Decision-Making Process.
• Define decision.Define decision.
• Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.
6.2 Managers Making Decisions.
• Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.
• Describe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, andDescribe the concepts of bounded rationality, satisficing, and
escalation of commitment.escalation of commitment.
• Explain intuitive decision making.Explain intuitive decision making.
3. 6–3
Learning OutcomesLearning Outcomes
6.3 Types Of Decisions and Decision-Making
Conditions.
• Explain the two types of problems and decisions.Explain the two types of problems and decisions.
• Contrast the three decision making conditions.Contrast the three decision making conditions.
• Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choiceExplain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice
approaches.approaches.
6.4 Decision-Making Styles
• Describe two decision-making styles.Describe two decision-making styles.
• Discuss the twelve decision-making biases.Discuss the twelve decision-making biases.
• Explain the managerial decision-making model.Explain the managerial decision-making model.
4. 6–4
Learning OutcomesLearning Outcomes
6.5 Effective Decision Making In Today’s World.
• Explain how managers can make effective decisionsExplain how managers can make effective decisions
in today’s world.in today’s world.
• List the six characteristics of an effective decisionList the six characteristics of an effective decision
making process.making process.
• List the five habits of highly reliable organizations.List the five habits of highly reliable organizations.
5. It is the first management function
‘A man who does not plan long ahead will
find trouble at his door’ – Confucius
‘Always plan ahead. It wasn’t raining
when Noah built the ark’ – Richard
Cushing
6. Decision Making is the essence of management
What managers do and try to avoid
All the managers like to make good decision
They are judged on the outcomes of those
decisions
7. All organizational members make decisions that
affect their jobs and organization but our focus is on
how managers make decisions
Managers at all levels and in all areas make
decisions
Top-level managers
Organization Goals
Where to locate manufacturing facilities
What new markets to move into
Middle and lower-lever Managers
Production Schedules
Product Quality Problems
Pay raises
Employee Discipline
8. Decision making is typically described as
choosing among alternatives
That is too simplistic view
Because decision making is a process, not just
as simple as choosing among alternatives.
Example: Deciding where to go for lunch
Example of a manager deciding what laptop
computers to purchase to understand the process of
decision making.
10. Every decision starts with a problem
Discrepancy between an existing and desired condition
Characteristics of Problems
A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.
There is pressure to solve the problem.
The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed
to solve the problem
Mr.Khan is a sales manager whose reps need new laptops
Old ones are outdated and inadequate for doing their job
Problem – Disparity between the current computers (existing condition)
and their need to have more efficient (desired condition)
Mr. Khan has a decision to make
11. Problems don’t come with neon signs flashing
‘problems’
When reps started complaining, it was pretty clear to
Mr.Khan that something needed to be done for the
laptops
But very few problems are that obvious.
Managers must not confuse problems with symptoms
of a problem
5 percent drop in sales??
12. It is not a problem, but a symptom of the real
problem, such as poor quality products, high prices or
bad advertising.
Problem Identification is subjective.
What one manager considers a problem might not
considered as a problem by another manager.
A manager who resolves the wrong problem perfectly
is as poor as the manager who doesn’t even recognize a
problem and does nothing.
Effectively, identifying a problem is very important.
13. Identifying decision criteria; things that are important
and relevant to resolving the problem.
•Costs that will be incurred (investments
required)
•Risks likely to be encountered (chance of
failure)
•Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)
In our example, Mr. Khan after careful consideration
decides that memory and storage capabilities, display
quality, battery life, warranty and carrying weight are
relevant criteria in his decision.
14. • Decision criteria are not of equalDecision criteria are not of equal
importance:importance:
Assigning a weight to each item places theAssigning a weight to each item places the
items in the correct priority order of theiritems in the correct priority order of their
importance in the decision-making process.importance in the decision-making process.
15. List variable alternatives that could resolve the
problem
The decision maker needs to be creative for this step
of decision making
Alternatives are only listed, not evaluated
Mr.Khan identifies eight laptops as possible choices
Toshiba Protégé
Dell Inspiron
HP Pavillion
Apple iBook
Sony Vaio
Gateway
Toshiba Qosmio
Lenovo Thinkpad
17. Evaluating AlternativesEvaluating Alternatives
• Is it legal?Is it legal? Managers must first be sure that anManagers must first be sure that an
alternative is legal both in this country and abroadalternative is legal both in this country and abroad
for exports.for exports.
• Is it ethical?Is it ethical? The alternative must be ethical andThe alternative must be ethical and
not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily.not hurt stakeholders unnecessarily.
• Is it economically feasible?Is it economically feasible? Can our organization’sCan our organization’s
performance goals sustain this alternative?performance goals sustain this alternative?
• Is it practical?Is it practical? Does the management have theDoes the management have the
capabilities and resources to do it?capabilities and resources to do it?
18. Decision maker after identifying the alternatives must evaluate
them. Mr.Khan after some research gave these values to
each alternative
Laptop
Memory &
Storage
Battery
Life
Carrying
Weight
Warranty
Display
Quality
Toshiba Protégé 10 3 10 8 5
Dell Inspiron 8 7 7 8 7
HP Pavillion 8 5 7 10 10
Apple iBook 8 7 7 8 7
Sony Vaio 7 8 7 8 7
Gateway 8 3 6 10 8
Toshiba Qosmio 10 7 8 6 7
Lenovo Thinkpad 4 10 4 8 10
These values are only an assessment of those eight laptops and do not include weighing of the decision
criteria.
19. Result after multiplying each alternative by assigned
weight
Laptop
Memory
& Storage
Battery
Life
Carrying
Weight
Warrant
y
Display
Quality
Total
Toshiba
Protégé
10x10=10
0
3x8=24 10x6=60 8x4=32 5x3=15 231
Dell Inspiron 80 56 42 32 21 231
HP Pavillion 80 40 42 40 30 232
Apple iBook 80 56 42 32 21 231
Sony Vaio 70 64 42 32 21 229
Gateway 80 24 36 40 24 204
Toshiba
Qosmio
100 56 48 24 21 249
Lenovo
Thinkpad
40 80 24 32 30 206
We don’t need this step if any one of the alternatives score highest in every criteria, we would not
consider the weights in that case.
20. 6–20
Step 4: Developing AlternativesStep 4: Developing Alternatives
• Identifying viable alternativesIdentifying viable alternatives
Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that canAlternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can
resolve the problem.resolve the problem.
Step 5: Analyzing AlternativesStep 5: Analyzing Alternatives
• Appraising each alternative’s strengths andAppraising each alternative’s strengths and
weaknessesweaknesses
An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability toAn alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to
resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
21. Choosing the best alternative, the one that generated
highest total in step 5.
Mr.Khan would choose Thosiba Qosmio because it
scored highest (249).
22. Putting the decision into action
Managers must reassess the environment for any
changes
Especially with the long term decisions
They must check if the criteria, alternatives, choices
are still the best
Or has the environment changed in such a way that
you need to reassess
23. The last step in decision making is evaluating the
outcome to see if the problem was resolved
If the problem still exists, then the manager needs to
assess what went wrong
Was the problem incorrectly identified?
Were the errors made when evaluating alternatives?
You might end up redoing an earlier step or even the
whole process
24. 6–24
Step 6: Selecting an AlternativeStep 6: Selecting an Alternative
• Choosing the best alternativeChoosing the best alternative
The alternative with the highest total weight isThe alternative with the highest total weight is
chosen.chosen.
Step 7: Implementing theStep 7: Implementing the
AlternativeAlternative
• Putting the chosen alternative into action.Putting the chosen alternative into action.
Conveying the decision to and gaining commitmentConveying the decision to and gaining commitment
from those who will carry out the decision.from those who will carry out the decision.
25. 6–25
Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’sStep 8: Evaluating the Decision’s
EffectivenessEffectiveness
• The soundness of the decision is judged by itsThe soundness of the decision is judged by its
outcomes.outcomes.
How effectively was the problem resolved byHow effectively was the problem resolved by
outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?
If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?
27. 6–27
Making DecisionsMaking Decisions
• RationalityRationality
Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choicesManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices
with specified constraints.with specified constraints.
They have all the tools to make decisions and accessThey have all the tools to make decisions and access
to informationto information
Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision makers:
Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.
Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viableHave carefully defined the problem and identified all viable
alternatives.alternatives.
Have a clear and specific goalHave a clear and specific goal
Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in theWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the
organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.
28. 6–28
Making Decisions (cont’d)Making Decisions (cont’d)
• Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality
Managers make decisions rationally, but are limitedManagers make decisions rationally, but are limited
(bounded) by their ability to process information.(bounded) by their ability to process information.
There is a large number of alternatives andThere is a large number of alternatives and
information is vast so that managers cannotinformation is vast so that managers cannot
consider it all.consider it all.
Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive abilities.Decisions are limited by people’s cognitive abilities.
Incomplete information:Incomplete information: most managers do not see allmost managers do not see all
alternatives and decide based on incompletealternatives and decide based on incomplete
informationinformation
Also Called the Administrative model of DecisionAlso Called the Administrative model of Decision
making…making…
• Challenged the classical assumptions thatChallenged the classical assumptions that
managers have and process all the information.managers have and process all the information.
As a result, decision making is risky.As a result, decision making is risky.
29. Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality
Assumptions are that decision makers:Assumptions are that decision makers:
Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill not seek out or have knowledge of all alternatives
WillWill satisficesatisfice—choose the first alternative encountered that—choose the first alternative encountered that
satisfactorily solves the problem—satisfactorily solves the problem—rather than maximize therather than maximize the
outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives andoutcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and
choosing the best.choosing the best.
This is the response of managers when dealing withThis is the response of managers when dealing with
incomplete information.incomplete information.
Managers assume that the limited options theyManagers assume that the limited options they
examine represent all options.examine represent all options.
Influence on decision makingInfluence on decision making
Escalation of commitmentEscalation of commitment: an increased commitment to a: an increased commitment to a
previous decision despite evidence that it may have beenprevious decision despite evidence that it may have been
wrong.wrong.
6–29
30. Why Information is IncompleteWhy Information is Incomplete
UncertaintyUncertainty
& risk& risk
AmbiguousAmbiguous
InformationInformation
Time constraints &
information costs
IncompleteIncomplete
InformationInformation
31. 6–31
The Role of Rationality in DMThe Role of Rationality in DM
• The rational decision making process reliesThe rational decision making process relies
mostly on logic and quantitative analysismostly on logic and quantitative analysis
You consciously analyze all the options. YouYou consciously analyze all the options. You
formulate the main criteria for judging the expectedformulate the main criteria for judging the expected
outcomes of your options and you assign certainoutcomes of your options and you assign certain
weights to those criteria to reflect their relativeweights to those criteria to reflect their relative
importance. Then, based on the expected outcomesimportance. Then, based on the expected outcomes
and their weights, you rate your options by theirand their weights, you rate your options by their
perceived utility. Finally, you choose the option thatperceived utility. Finally, you choose the option that
has the highest rating.has the highest rating.
IfIf expected outcomes involve uncertainty, you willexpected outcomes involve uncertainty, you will
also need to incorporate in your ratings the perceivedalso need to incorporate in your ratings the perceived
probabilities of different possibilitiesprobabilities of different possibilities
32. Rational Decision MakingRational Decision Making
• Rational analysis still plays crucial role in manyRational analysis still plays crucial role in many
situations, especially when you have clearsituations, especially when you have clear
criteria and have to deal with extensivecriteria and have to deal with extensive
quantitative data, like quantitative finance. Yet,quantitative data, like quantitative finance. Yet,
you will likely face even more businessyou will likely face even more business
situations where the rational decision makingsituations where the rational decision making
becomes impractical.becomes impractical.
6–32
33. 6–33
The Role of IntuitionThe Role of Intuition
• Intuitive decision makingIntuitive decision making
Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings,Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings,
and accumulated judgment.and accumulated judgment.
The main alternative to the intuition-based approachThe main alternative to the intuition-based approach
is rational thinkingis rational thinking
The rational decision making process reliesThe rational decision making process relies
mostly on logic and quantitative analysismostly on logic and quantitative analysis
35. 6–35
Intuition in Decision MakingIntuition in Decision Making
• key features that characterize the intuitive modekey features that characterize the intuitive mode
of thinkingof thinking
dominated by your subconscious mind, even if youdominated by your subconscious mind, even if you
use your conscious mind to formulate or rationalizeuse your conscious mind to formulate or rationalize
the final results.the final results.
more connected with your emotionsmore connected with your emotions
Instead of going through a logical sequence ofInstead of going through a logical sequence of
thoughts one by one, you see the situation more as athoughts one by one, you see the situation more as a
wholewhole
36. 6–36
Types of Problems and DecisionsTypes of Problems and Decisions
• Structured ProblemsStructured Problems
Involve goals that are clear.Involve goals that are clear.
Are familiar (have occurred before).Are familiar (have occurred before).
Are easily and completely definedAre easily and completely defined—infor—information aboutmation about
the problem is available and complete.the problem is available and complete.
• Programmed DecisionProgrammed Decision
A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routineA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine
approach.approach.
37. 6–37
Types of Programmed DecisionsTypes of Programmed Decisions
• ProcedureProcedure
A series of interrelated steps that a manager can useA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use
to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.
• RuleRule
An explicit statement that limits what a manager orAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or
employee can or cannot do.employee can or cannot do.
• PolicyPolicy
A general guideline for making a decision about aA general guideline for making a decision about a
structured problem.structured problem.
38. 6–38
Policy, Procedure, and RulePolicy, Procedure, and Rule
ExamplesExamples
• PolicyPolicy
Accept all customer-returned merchandise.Accept all customer-returned merchandise.
• ProcedureProcedure
Follow all steps for completing merchandise returnFollow all steps for completing merchandise return
documentation.documentation.
• RulesRules
Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00.Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00.
No credit purchases are refunded for cash.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.
39. 6–39
Problems and Decisions (cont’d)Problems and Decisions (cont’d)
• Unstructured ProblemsUnstructured Problems
Problems that are new or unusual and for whichProblems that are new or unusual and for which
information is ambiguous or incomplete.information is ambiguous or incomplete.
Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.
• Nonprogrammed DecisionsNonprogrammed Decisions
Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.
Decisions that generate unique responses.Decisions that generate unique responses.
May require intiutive deicision makingMay require intiutive deicision making
40. 6–40
Exhibit 6–7 Programmed Versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsExhibit 6–7 Programmed Versus Nonprogrammed Decisions
41. 6–41
Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making Conditions
• CertaintyCertainty
A situation in which a manager can make an accurateA situation in which a manager can make an accurate
decision because the outcome of every alternativedecision because the outcome of every alternative
choice is known.choice is known.
• RiskRisk
A situation in which the manager is able to estimateA situation in which the manager is able to estimate
the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that resultthe likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result
from the choice of particular alternatives.from the choice of particular alternatives.
42. 6–42
Exhibit 6–8Exhibit 6–8 Expected Value for RevenuesExpected Value for Revenues
from the Addition of One Ski Liftfrom the Addition of One Ski Lift
Expected
Expected × Probability = Value of Each
Event Revenues Alternative
Heavy snowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000
Normal snowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500
Light snowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000
$687,500
43. 6–43
Decision Making ConditionsDecision Making Conditions
• UncertaintyUncertainty
Limited information prevents estimation of outcomeLimited information prevents estimation of outcome
probabilities for alternatives associated with theprobabilities for alternatives associated with the
problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,problem and may force managers to rely on intuition,
hunches, and “gut feelings.”hunches, and “gut feelings.”
Maximax:Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize thethe optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the
maximum payoffmaximum payoff
Maximin:Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize thethe pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the
minimum payoffminimum payoff
Minimax:Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret.the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret.
44. Chap 17-44
QT in Decision Making OverviewQT in Decision Making Overview
Decision Making
Certainty Nonprobabilistic
Uncertainty Probabilistic
Decision Environment Decision Criteria
45. Chap 17-45
The Decision EnvironmentThe Decision Environment
Certainty
Uncertainty
Decision Environment Certainty: The results of decision
alternatives are known
Example:
Must print 10,000 color brochures
Offset press A: $2,000 fixed cost
+ $.24 per page
Offset press B: $3,000 fixed cost
+ $.12 per page
*
46. Chap 17-46
The Decision EnvironmentThe Decision Environment
Uncertainty
Certainty
Decision Environment
Uncertainty: The outcome that
will occur after a choice is
unknown
Example:
You must decide to buy an item
now or wait. If you buy now the
price is $2,000. If you wait the
price may drop to $1,500 or rise
to $2,200. There also may be a
new model available later with
better features.
*
(continued)
47. Chap 17-47
Decision CriteriaDecision Criteria
Nonprobabilistic
Probabilistic
Decision CriteriaNonprobabilistic Decision Criteria:
Decision rules that can be
applied if the probabilities of
uncertain events are not known. *
maximax criterion
maximin criterion
minimax regret criterion
48. Chap 17-48
Nonprobabilistic
Probabilistic
Decision Criteria
*
Probabilistic Decision Criteria:
Consider the probabilities of
uncertain events and select an
alternative to maximize the
expected payoff of minimize the
expected loss
maximize expected value
minimize expected opportunity loss
Decision CriteriaDecision Criteria
(continued)
49. Chap 17-49
A Payoff TableA Payoff Table
A payoff table showsA payoff table shows alternativesalternatives,,
states of naturestates of nature, and payoffs, and payoffs
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
50. Chap 17-50
Maximax SolutionMaximax Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
1.
Maximum Profit
200
120
40
The maximax criterion (an optimistic approach):
1. For each option, find the maximum payoff
51. Chap 17-51
Maximax SolutionMaximax Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
1.
Maximum Profit
200
120
40
The maximax criterion (an optimistic approach):
1. For each option, find the maximum payoff
2. Choose the option with the greatest maximum payoff
2.
Greatest
maximum is to
choose Large
factory
(continued)
52. Chap 17-52
Maximin SolutionMaximin Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
1.
Minimum Profit
-120
-30
20
The maximin criterion (a pessimistic approach):
1. For each option, find the minimum payoff
53. Chap 17-53
Maximin SolutionMaximin Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
1.
Minimum Profit
-120
-30
20
The maximin criterion (a pessimistic approach):
1. For each option, find the minimum payoff
2. Choose the option with the greatest minimum payoff
2.
Greatest
minimum is to
choose Small
factory
(continued)
54. Chap 17-54
Opportunity LossOpportunity Loss
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
The choice “Average factory” has payoff 90 for “Strong Economy”. Given
“Strong Economy”, the choice of “Large factory” would have given a
payoff of 200, or 110 higher. Opportunity loss = 110 for this cell.
Opportunity loss is the difference between an actual
payoff for a decision and the optimal payoff for that
state of nature
Payoff
Table
55. Chap 17-55
Opportunity LossOpportunity Loss
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
(continued)
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Opportunity Loss in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
0
110
160
70
0
90
140
50
0
Payoff
Table
Opportunity
Loss Table
56. Chap 17-56
Minimax Regret SolutionMinimax Regret Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Opportunity Loss in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
0
110
160
70
0
90
140
50
0
Opportunity Loss Table
The minimax regret criterion:
1. For each alternative, find the maximum opportunity
loss (or “regret”)
1.
Maximum Op.
Loss
140
110
160
57. Chap 17-57
Minimax Regret SolutionMinimax Regret Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Opportunity Loss in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
Stable
Economy
Weak
Economy
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
0
110
160
70
0
90
140
50
0
Opportunity Loss Table
The minimax regret criterion:
1. For each alternative, find the maximum opportunity
loss (or “regret”)
2. Choose the option with the smallest maximum loss
1.
Maximum Op.
Loss
140
110
160
2.
Smallest
maximum loss
is to choose
Average
factory
(continued)
58. Chap 17-58
Expected Value SolutionExpected Value Solution
• The expected value is the weighted averageThe expected value is the weighted average
payoff,payoff, given specified probabilities for each stategiven specified probabilities for each state
of natureof nature
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
(.3)
Stable
Economy
(.5)
Weak
Economy
(.2)
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
Suppose these
probabilities have been
assessed for these states
of nature
59. Chap 17-59
Expected Value SolutionExpected Value Solution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
(.3)
Stable
Economy
(.5)
Weak
Economy
(.2)
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
Example:Example: EV (Average factory) = 90(.3) + 120(.5) + (-30)(.2)EV (Average factory) = 90(.3) + 120(.5) + (-30)(.2)
= 81= 81
Expected
Values
61
81
31
Maximize
expected value
by choosing
Average
factory
(continued)
60. Chap 17-60
Expected Opportunity LossExpected Opportunity Loss
SolutionSolution
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Opportunity Loss in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
(.3)
Stable
Economy
(.5)
Weak
Economy
(.2)
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
0
110
160
70
0
90
140
50
0
Example:Example: EOL (Large factory) = 0(.3) + 70(.5) + (140)(.2)EOL (Large factory) = 0(.3) + 70(.5) + (140)(.2)
= 63= 63
Expected Op.
Loss
(EOL)
63
43
93
Minimize expected
op. loss by
choosing Average
factory
Opportunity Loss Table
61. Chap 17-61
Cost of UncertaintyCost of Uncertainty
• Cost of Uncertainty (also called Expected ValueCost of Uncertainty (also called Expected Value
of Perfect Information, or EVPI)of Perfect Information, or EVPI)
• Cost of UncertaintyCost of Uncertainty
= Expected Value Under Certainty (EVUC)= Expected Value Under Certainty (EVUC)
–– Expected Value without information (EV)Expected Value without information (EV)
so: EVPI = EVUC – EVso: EVPI = EVUC – EV
62. Chap 17-62
Expected Value Under CertaintyExpected Value Under Certainty
• Expected ValueExpected Value
UnderUnder
CertaintyCertainty
(EVUC):(EVUC):
EVUC =EVUC =
expected valueexpected value
of the bestof the best
decision,decision, givengiven
perfectperfect
informationinformation
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
(.3)
Stable
Economy
(.5)
Weak
Economy
(.2)
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
Example: Best decision given “Strong
Economy” is “Large factory”
200 120 20
63. Chap 17-63
Expected Value Under CertaintyExpected Value Under Certainty
Investment
Choice
(Alternatives)
Profit in $1,000’s
(States of Nature)
Strong
Economy
(.3)
Stable
Economy
(.5)
Weak
Economy
(.2)
Large factory
Average factory
Small factory
200
90
40
50
120
30
-120
-30
20
200 120 20
(continued)
EVUC = 200(.3)+120(.5)+20(.2)
= 124
• Now weightNow weight
these outcomesthese outcomes
with theirwith their
probabilities toprobabilities to
find EVUC:find EVUC:
64. Chap 17-64
Cost of Uncertainty SolutionCost of Uncertainty Solution
• Cost of Uncertainty (EVPI)Cost of Uncertainty (EVPI)
= Expected Value Under Certainty (EVUC)= Expected Value Under Certainty (EVUC)
–– Expected Value without information (EV)Expected Value without information (EV)
so: EVPI = EVUC – EV
= 124 – 81
= 43
Recall: EVUC = 124
EV is maximized by choosing “Average factory”,
where EV = 81
65. Chap 17-65
Decision Tree AnalysisDecision Tree Analysis
• A Decision tree shows a decision problem,A Decision tree shows a decision problem,
beginning with the initial decision and ending willbeginning with the initial decision and ending will
all possible outcomes and payoffs.all possible outcomes and payoffs.
Use a square to denote decision nodesUse a square to denote decision nodes
Use a circle to denote uncertain eventsUse a circle to denote uncertain events
66. Chap 17-66
Sample Decision TreeSample Decision Tree
Large factory
Small factory
Average factory
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
67. Chap 17-67
Add Probabilities and PayoffsAdd Probabilities and Payoffs
Large factory
Small factory
Decision
Average factory
Uncertain Events
(States of Nature)
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
(continued)
PayoffsProbabilities
200
50
-120
40
30
20
90
120
-30
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
68. Chap 17-68
Fold Back the TreeFold Back the Tree
Large factory
Small factory
Average factory
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
200
50
-120
40
30
20
90
120
-30
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
EV=200(.3)+50(.5)+(-120)(.2)=61
EV=90(.3)+120(.5)+(-30)(.2)=81
EV=40(.3)+30(.5)+20(.2)=31
69. Chap 17-69
Make the DecisionMake the Decision
Large factory
Small factory
Average factory
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
Strong Economy
Stable Economy
Weak Economy
200
50
-120
40
30
20
90
120
-30
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
(.3)
(.5)
(.2)
EV=61
EV=81
EV=31
Maximum
EV=81
70. Chap 17-70
SummarySummary
• Examined decision making environmentsExamined decision making environments
certainty and uncertaintycertainty and uncertainty
• Reviewed decision making criteriaReviewed decision making criteria
nonprobabilistic: maximax, maximin, minimax regretnonprobabilistic: maximax, maximin, minimax regret
probabilistic: expected value, expected opp. lossprobabilistic: expected value, expected opp. loss
• Computed the Cost of Uncertainty (EVPI)Computed the Cost of Uncertainty (EVPI)
• Developed decision trees and applied them toDeveloped decision trees and applied them to
decision problemsdecision problems
71. 6–71
Decision-Making StylesDecision-Making Styles
• Linear thinking styleLinear thinking style
A person’s preference for using external data andA person’s preference for using external data and
facts and processing this information through rational,facts and processing this information through rational,
logical thinkinglogical thinking
• Nonlinear thinking styleNonlinear thinking style
A person’s preference for internal sources ofA person’s preference for internal sources of
information and processing this information withinformation and processing this information with
internal insights, feelings, and hunchesinternal insights, feelings, and hunches
72. Cognitive BiasesCognitive Biases
•AA cognitive biascognitive bias is the human tendency to makeis the human tendency to make
systematic errors in judgment, knowledge, and reasoning.systematic errors in judgment, knowledge, and reasoning.
•Suggests decision makers use heuristics to dealSuggests decision makers use heuristics to deal
with bounded rationality.with bounded rationality.
A heuristic is a rule of thumb to deal with complexA heuristic is a rule of thumb to deal with complex
situations.situations.
If the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisionsIf the heuristic is wrong, however, then poor decisions
result from its use.result from its use.
•Systematic errorsSystematic errors can result from use of ancan result from use of an
incorrect heuristic.incorrect heuristic.
These errors will appear over and over since the ruleThese errors will appear over and over since the rule
used to make decision is flawed.used to make decision is flawed.
•CognitionCognition is the scientific term for "the processis the scientific term for "the process
of thought".of thought". 6–72
73. 6–73
Exhibit 6–11 Common Decision-Making Errors and BiasesExhibit 6–11 Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases
74. 6–74
Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and Errors
• HeuristicsHeuristics
Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.
• Overconfidence BiasOverconfidence Bias
Holding unrealistically positive views of oneself andHolding unrealistically positive views of oneself and
one’s performance.one’s performance.
• Immediate Gratification BiasImmediate Gratification Bias
Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewardsChoosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards
and that to avoid immediate costs.and that to avoid immediate costs.
75. 6–75
Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and Errors
• Anchoring EffectAnchoring Effect
Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequentFixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent
information.information.
• Selective Perception BiasSelective Perception Bias
Selecting organizing and interpreting events based onSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on
the decision maker’s biased perceptions.the decision maker’s biased perceptions.
• Confirmation BiasConfirmation Bias
Seeking out information that reaffirms past choicesSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices
and discounting contradictory information. People areand discounting contradictory information. People are
bias towards confirming their existing beliefsbias towards confirming their existing beliefs
76. 6–76
Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and Errors
(cont’d)(cont’d)
• Framing BiasFraming Bias
Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of aSelecting and highlighting certain aspects of a
situation while ignoring other aspects.situation while ignoring other aspects.
• Availability BiasAvailability Bias
Losing decision making objectivity by focusing on theLosing decision making objectivity by focusing on the
most recent events.most recent events.
• Representation BiasRepresentation Bias
Drawing analogies and seeing identical situationsDrawing analogies and seeing identical situations
when none exist.when none exist.
• Randomness BiasRandomness Bias
Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.
77. 6–77
Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsDecision-Making Biases and Errors
• Sunk Costs ErrorsSunk Costs Errors
Forgetting that current actions cannot influence pastForgetting that current actions cannot influence past
events and relate only to future consequences.events and relate only to future consequences.
• Self-Serving BiasSelf-Serving Bias
Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outsideTaking quick credit for successes and blaming outside
factors for failures.factors for failures.
• Hindsight BiasHindsight Bias
Mistakenly believing that an event could have beenMistakenly believing that an event could have been
predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-predicted once the actual outcome is known (after-
the-fact).the-fact).
78. 6–78
Exhibit 6–12 Overview of Managerial Decision MakingExhibit 6–12 Overview of Managerial Decision Making
79. 6–79
Decision Making for Today’s WorldDecision Making for Today’s World
• Guidelines for making effective decisions:Guidelines for making effective decisions:
Understand cultural differences.Understand cultural differences.
Know when it’s time to call it quits.Know when it’s time to call it quits.
Use an effective decision making process.Use an effective decision making process.
• Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs)Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs)
Are not tricked by their success.Are not tricked by their success.
Defer to the experts on the front line.Defer to the experts on the front line.
Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution.
Embrace complexity.Embrace complexity.
Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.
80. 6–80
Characteristics of an EffectiveCharacteristics of an Effective
Decision-Making ProcessDecision-Making Process
• It focuses on what is important.It focuses on what is important.
• It is logical and consistent.It is logical and consistent.
• It acknowledges both subjective and objective thinkingIt acknowledges both subjective and objective thinking
and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.and blends analytical with intuitive thinking.
• It requires only as much information and analysis as isIt requires only as much information and analysis as is
necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.necessary to resolve a particular dilemma.
• It encourages and guides the gathering of relevantIt encourages and guides the gathering of relevant
information and informed opinion.information and informed opinion.
• It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.It is straightforward, reliable, easy to use, and flexible.