Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni on "The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero"

1. Università degli Studi di Sassari
Architettura ad Alghero
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures
of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

2. Abstract
The tip of the iceberg is a small evident part or aspect of something largely
hidden, and the knowledge of tourism is like this tip.
The official data just make a picture of emerged part, but what is the
submerged one?
The aim is to illustrate methodologies and issues relevant for tourism in
general and replicable in other situations.
We try to assess the submerged size of the tourism phenomenon both on
the supply side (specifically the size of the receptive target) and on the
demand side (the actual number of attendances).
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

3. Introduction
Tourism is one of the most important tools of territorial transformation, and
its effects open a huge field of research both in quantitative and qualitative
dimensions.
The majority of official investigation are quantitative, and partials, just
showing the tip of the iceberg.
Arrivals and presences don’t concern only the tourists: they include people
that stay for work, for doctor visits, to meet family and friends, spending a
night waiting for a flight, and all other possible reasons that can push a
person to pass at least one night in an accommodation.
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

4. Introduction
Architecture at Alghero has in last seven years an observatory of tourism.
Since 2005 for each year we produced a report that studies the tourist
processes in Alghero and the Province of Sassari.
The report is divided in two parts:
- a standard part, useful to "investigate" and evaluate tourism dimensions
trough the time;
-a special investigation, different for each year, aimed to investigate specific
issues
Today we speak about the standard part, where we try to measure the
submerged part of the tourism
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

5. The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero
Official statistics are related to hotel facilities and extra-hotel structures or
complementary receptive exercises
2010: few B&B and farm holidays registered.
The figure for non-hotel facilities is almost totally related to campsites and
hostels, losing a significant portion of the overall size
The consistency of the accommodation in Alghero
39 official hotels 6.601 beds
252 complementary exercises 6.078 beds
291 total exercises 12.679 beds
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

6. The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero
Disponibilità posti letto 5 STELLE E 5 STELLE LUSSO
4 STELLE
Case per ferie
136 3 STELLE
Alloggi agro-turistici e 1% 5 STELLE E 5 STELLE
Country-Houses
LUSSO
1 STELLA
343
Ostelli per la 274
3% 4 STELLE Residenze Turistico Alberghiere
Gioventù 2%
Bed & Breakfast 3.261
117 929 Campeggi e Villaggi turistici
Alloggi in affitto 26%
1% 7%
563
Alloggi in affitto
4%
Alloggi agro-turistici e Country-
Houses
Ostelli per la Gioventù
Case per ferie
Bed & Breakfast
Campeggi e Villaggi turistici 3 STELLE
3.990 2.146
1 STELLA
32% 17%
Residenze Turistico 18
Alberghiere 0%
902
7%
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

7. The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero
Arrivals
Year Var 2009-2010
Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 %
Jan 3.377 3.435 3.340 4.123 2.940 2.649 -291 -9,90%
Feb 4.365 3.975 4.565 5.580 2.938 2.983 45 1,53%
Mar 10.375 5.560 8.255 10.887 6.315 6.057 -258 -4,09%
Apr 16.721 18.899 20.706 18.722 19.977 14.966 -5.011 -25,08%
May 28.081 28.437 28.742 30.673 28.154 25.906 -2.248 -7,98%
Jun 33.932 32.387 35.334 32.909 32.823 32.752 -71 -0,22%
Jul 32.950 29.510 33.304 36.811 37.827 35.717 -2.110 -5,58%
Aug 36.110 32.945 36.905 41.846 42.171 38.729 -3.442 -8,16%
Sep 31.312 26.266 36.583 34.225 37.126 31.467 -5.659 -15,24%
Oct 11.419 10.676 15.991 15.004 15.622 14.572 -1.050 -6,72%
Nov 3.639 4.117 5.872 4.153 3.061 3.604 543 17,74%
Dec 4.242 3.258 4.157 4.587 3.189 3.470 281 8,81%
Total 216.523 199.465 233.754 239.520 232.143 212.872 -19.271 -8,30%
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

8. The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero
Presences
Year Var 2009-2010
Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 %
Jan 7.477 6.355 5.934 7.084 5.126 5.119 -7 -0,14%
Feb 8.391 7.901 8.571 10.582 4.701 5.452 751 15,98%
Mar 30.577 14.214 18.435 25.613 13.108 12.295 -813 -6,20%
Apr 36.584 56.672 50.036 46.935 44.972 35.773 -9.199 -20,45%
May 82.216 87.356 86.788 90.179 75.984 74.825 -1.159 -1,53%
Jun 151.722 151.919 142.527 149.863 131.337 130.190 -1.147 -0,87%
Jul 183.333 163.747 170.743 201.392 192.887 189.145 -3.742 -1,94%
Aug 218.366 204.325 197.785 218.730 214.981 216.190 1.209 0,56%
Sep 136.051 112.530 145.228 146.286 143.501 135.217 -8.284 -5,77%
Oct 36.702 32.819 50.315 42.722 52.252 50.375 -1.877 -3,59%
Nov 7.613 7.761 10.962 7.103 4.681 6.682 2.001 42,75%
Dec 7.514 6.335 7.399 7.606 4.867 5.565 698 14,34%
Total 906.546 851.934 894.723 954.095 888.397 866.828 -21.569 -2,43%
Around the 15th of August we have the presence of 12.000 people.
In media, the presences recorded in August are about equivalent to 1/6 of
resident population - 40.800 (216.000/31≈7000)
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

9. The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero
As in most European tourist destinations, alongside the official offer there is
a market of houses not occupied by residents and available for temporary
uses.
The available statistic data does not provides data about these so-called
"second houses". The lack is double, namely we do not know neither their
number, nor what is the flow of people during the year in this type of
accommodations.
To estimate the number of houses available for temporary uses, we used
two indirect indicators: the number of ENEL contracts for electricity supply
for domestic use and the ICI (Municipality Property Tax).
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

10. The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero
ENEL contracts for electricity supply
Year Residents Resident’s Non-resident’s Total
(by ISTAT) contracts contracts contracts
2005 40.320 17.472 7.438 24.910
2006 40.400 18.460 8.020 26.480
2007 40.700 18.951 8.602 27.552
Contracts for electricity supply for domestic uses
But there is a phenomenon that regards “absent residents”, people
who, essentially for tax reasons, reside in a city, but actually live
elsewhere. To try to assess how many houses were used by real
residents, we referenced to the 2001 ISTAT Census that recorded that we
have 2,7 permanent residents per residential unit.
Year Residents Total energy Houses of real Available Houses
(by ISTAT) supply contracts residents (Res/2,7) (Ut.Att-Ab.occ)
2005 40.320 24.910 14.933 9.977
2006 40.400 26.480 14.963 11.517
2007 40.700 27.552 15.074 12.352
Active ENEL contracts 2005 - 2007, ENEL data
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

11. The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero
We tried to estimate the accommodation capacity (number of beds)
considering the following extreme situations:
- Assign to the second houses the same density of the resident population
(2,7 inh/RU)
- Assign for each RU available 2 beds for each room useful. The reference is
therefore of 2.4 rooms per unit
YEAR Beds Range
Same density of residents 2 beds per avaible room
(2,7 inh/RU*n°RU avai) (2,4 roo/RU*n°Ru avai*2)
2005 26.937 47.888
2006 31.096 55.282
2007 33.691 59.895
Number of beds in houses not occupied by residents
ICI Data
Beds Range
ICI second Houses
Year Same density of residents 2 beds per avaible room
+ absent residents
(2,7 inh/RU*n°RU avai) (2,4 roo/RU*n°Ru avai*2)
2009 14.150 38.205 67.920
Number of beds in houses not occupied by residents
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

12. We have an official accommodation capacity of 12.679 beds
and
an unofficial capacity that of (at least) 33.691 beds
The proportion is (at least) of 1:3!!!!
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

13. Indirect measure of the presence
Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
This is a useful indicator to assess the total number of presences. These
data register residents, tourists, excursionists and persons who are in the
city and produce waste. Stima popolazione presente base produzione rif iuti dif f erenziati
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000 Popolazione residente
umido
50000 vetro
carta
40000
Totale RD
30000
20000
10000
0
GennaioFebbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio AgostoSettembreOttobreNovembre
Dicembre
Popolazione residente 40802 40811 40823 40841 40862 40865 40871 40888 40914 40947 40969 40970
umido 40794 40410 46769 48958 46543 52046 53002 82594 47354 41926 40568 41782
vetro 42669 24266 41422 41145 46952 69277 75915 88263 74820 47201 35089 44374
carta 41101 43233 47875 48301 44985 54269 55015 57869 53274 41658 40699 38508
Totale RD 40902 41391 47154 48731 46004 52819 53702 74019 49409 41838 40614 40643
Estimate of present population based on the production of separated waste
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

14. Indirect measure of the presence
Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
popolazione rif iuti
90000
79398
80000 72259
74019
74503
70000 65849
60000 60257 58624
58059 56460
47154 48731 52819
41760 46201 49554 53702
50000 50096 49409 46641 R.S.U.
41651 46337
49195
46004 41616
41391 42447 Totale RD
48803
44628 41838 40643 Totale raccolte
40000 40614 40527
40902 40473
39898
39649
30000
20000
10000
0
Gennaio Febbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio Agosto Settembre Ottobre Novembre Dicembre
Comparison of estimated population over waste differentiated and undifferentiated
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

15. Indirect measure of the presence
Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
Stima popolazione presente base produzione rif iuti
80000
74503
70000
65849
60000
58059
56460
50000
49554 49195
46201 46337
40000 42447
41651 40473
39898
30000
20000
10000
0
Gennaio Febbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio Agosto Settembre Ottobre Novembre Dicembre
Totale raccolte 41651 39898 46201 49554 49195 58059 65849 74503 56460 46337 42447 40473
Popolazione residente 40802 40811 40823 40841 40862 40865 40871 40888 40914 40947 40969 40970
Estimation of present population
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

16. Indirect measure of the presence
Consumption of bread
The second indirect indicator used to calculate the tourist presences is the
consumption of bread in the various months of the year. The estimate
assumes that the consumption per capita is constant during all seasons.
Stima ab base pane
100.000
90.000 87.083
80.000
72.104
70.000
60.000
53.228 53.201
50.000 45.958 46.200 46.651
44.466 2010
42.621 41.675
39.721 39.865
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
Estimated present population based on the consumption of bread
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

17. Indirect measure of the presence
A comparison
Confronto indicatori di presenza indiretta
100.000
90.000
80.000
74.503
70.000 65.849
58.059
60.000 56.460
49.554 49.195
50.000 46.201 46.337
41.651 42.447
39.898 40.473
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
0
GENNAIO FEBBRAIO MARZO APRILE MAGGIO GIUGNO LUGLIO AGOSTO SETTEMBRE OTTOBRE NOVEMBRE DICEMBRE
Vendite Pane 42.621 39.721 45.958 46.200 46.651 53.228 72.104 87.083 53.201 44.466 39.865 41.675
Totale rifiuti 41.651 39.898 46.201 49.554 49.195 58.059 65.849 74.503 56.460 46.337 42.447 40.473
Media 42.136 39.809 46.080 47.877 47.923 55.643 68.977 80.793 54.830 45.401 41.156 41.074
Population estimate based on indirect indicators
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

18. The data leads to 3,7 million presences every year, including official
tourists, unofficial ones, excursionists, commuters, students, off-site
workers, etc: about a fifth of the population of Alghero is not resident.
The key management problem is that the distribution is not homogeneous.
For the months of January, February, November and December we have just
the residents.
In April, May and October on average we have 10.000 more inhabitants.
In June and September the inhabitants amounted to more than 17.000 (i.e.
40% more than the residents).
In July, they are 25.000 (62.5% more), and in August we have the peak of
34.000 units more (85% more), we are close to the doubling of the city.
Close to the 15th of August, the city really duplicate its inhabitants.
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

19. Conclusions
The official data show us just the tip of the iceberg.
We attempted to discover the dimensions of the underwater part of the
tourism, in particular investigating the offer of accommodation in second
homes and the presences in general.
In the case of Alghero the proportion of presences not recorded is
analogous to that of the receptive offer i.e. of 3:1.
We verified that there is a housing stock that can host (minimum) 36.000
people against the 12.000 official beds and about 3.7 million of effective
presences against the 900 thousand registered.
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

20. Conclusions
The tip represents just a quarter of
the iceberg!
The results are specific, but the
methodology can be easily
replicated in other tourist places.
The difficulty is to find the right
indirect measure of presences. In
fact not always there are available
data to describe the universe. In
these cases the better way of
investigation is a specific survey.
However for a more complete
picture of the tourism reality we
have to relate our investigations to
the qualitative dimensions of
tourism too.
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

21. Conclusions
Be careful:
to fully understand the effects of
the impact it is interesting to know
how great is the iceberg, but we
also need to understand how and of
what is done.
Thank you
for your
attention
The tip of the iceberg
Tests of indirect measures of tourism in Alghero
Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni