Calp4 webinar power & ToC

POWER ANALYSIS,
POWER MAPPING &
Theories of Change
CALP 4 webinar
Jan 2015

Why does power matter?
“Development is about power and its progressive redistribution
from the haves to the have-nots”. Winnie Byanyima, Oxfam International
Executive Director

Power Analysis for Change
Forms
Visible
Hidden,
operates behind
the scenes
Invisible,
based on ideology
and beliefs.
Spaces
In closed
groups
With invited
parties
In created
spaces
Levels
Household
Local
National
Global

Visible, Hidden, Invisible Power
What can we learn about power from the following examples?
Example A
On December 5th, 1994, the members of parliament of Tobostan voted 200 to 150 in favour of a
bill permitting the right to have an abortion.
Example B
The town of Penningscale is situated 30 kilometers from a nuclear plant. The residents are very
concerned about the high incidence of cancer in the community and have raised the issue on
many occasions with their local representatives. Whilst the local representatives are sympathetic,
they are also aware of the employment opportunities created by the plant. The issue was tabled
for discussion at the last local government meeting but due to an unexpectedly lengthy debate on
local taxation, the matter was not discussed.
Example C
In the province of Tuzal in the country of Sutuzania 80% of land is owned by 10% of the
population. Most farmers have a small plot of land for subsistence purposes but also work as
labourers in the fields of landowners. The landowners remunerate their workers with a small
wage, sufficient to buy basic necessities such as soap and cooking oil. They also provide their
workers with clothing and special food on religious occasions. In some districts landowners have
contributed towards the costs of basic primary schooling. Compared to the neighbouring country
of Portania, there has been little political unrest.
(source: Jude Howell, from her course on Empowering Society, IDS, 2002)

Spaces where power is exercised

Levels of power
Global
National
Local

Characteristics of Power
• Women and men hold multiple roles and relationships. With
each, their level of power can vary.
• Power can be economic, political, social, cultural and
symbolic. People are rarely powerful in (nor powerless
across) all forms.
• Power is not a zero-sum game.
• Power is socially constructed.
• A person’s experience of power can depend on their gender,
race, class, age, etc.

What kinds of power are you
challenging/ engaging with in your
work?

Case Study: Jubilee Campaign
• Global policies on debt, like most macro-economic policies,
have traditionally been decided in ‘closed’ spaces, with little
invited public consultation with or participation by those poor
people directly affected, and few alternative spaces for debate
to occur.
• This form of power in the policy making process is surrounded
by forms of hidden and invisible power: the prevailing
mobilisation of bias re-enforces the idea that policy is the
province of expert economists.
• Poor people are often socialized to accept the legitimacy of
such expertise, even when it apparently contradicts their own
interests.

Case Study: Jubilee campaign
• The emergence of a global movement to put the impact of
debt on poor nations on the public agenda, and to challenge
the power relationships that linked debt and poverty. Led by a
broad coalition known as Jubilee 2000:
• Mobilized at all levels. Global to national
• Engaged multiple spaces. Challenging closed decision
making spaces (IMF), taking advantage of invited arenas and
mobilizing outside closed and invited spaces.
• Empowering people. Economic literacy and public education
which enable local people to speak for themselves were just
as important as technical research, professional advocacy

Power Mapping
What is a 'power analysis map’? Why do one?
• Understand the networks and relationships between
people and institutions – who has the direct power to
deliver the change you want, who can influence them?
i.e.
• Who makes decisions concerning your objective?
• How are these decisions made?
• Who can influence the decision making process and
those with the power to bring about the change you
want?
• Allies and opponents? What are their interests?

Top tips
Remember:
• Make your stakeholders specific to your objective i.e.
‘targeted’ & ‘prioritised’
• Your analysis of an institution needs to be subdivided in
to named individuals so
a) you can be specific and
b) there may be allies/champions, opponents/blockers,
floaters or targets within one institution
• Think about how power can shift and change

Power Mapping cont.
• More than way to cut a cake!
• So a few different tools to establish:
- the stakeholders for your advocacy objective(s)
- their degree of power to deliver the change you want
- who has influence over who.

Power Power mapping grid
High
Influence
Medium
Influence
Low
Influence
Blocker Floater Champion

Checklist
• Lessons from previous power analyses and campaigns
• Available data
• Developed in collaboration with others
• A way to check information/ verify assumptions

Examples of power analysis and
mapping

Power map climate politics 2009
Progressive G77, incl. LDCs e.g. Bangladesh
More powerfulLess powerful
More Supportive 2oC
Less supportive 2oC
China
USA
Japan
Australia
Canada
S. KoreaMexico
India
Brazil
Prog. A1 e.g. Norway
Other EU
Saudi/
OPEC
Russia
Indonesia
AOSIS
Rest of Africa e.g. Uganda
Progressive EU
Climate champions
Swing states
Deal-blockers
Core/deal-makers
S. Africa

Allies Blockers Opportunity
30% UK, Denmark,
Sweden, Netherlands,
Belgium
Hungary, Italy
Scale Netherlands (€100bn
new & add), UK
(€100bn but messy)
Poland (until internal
burden-sharing
agreed), Italy
Additionality to
ODA
Netherlands,
Denmark, UK, EP
Germany, Belgium, EC
(DG DEV)
France
No double-
counting offsets
Netherlands
(All EU? EGIP on-
board)
Sweden, Spain (?), UK EC (DG ENV)
Norwegian-type
mechanisms
UK, Netherlands EC (DG ENV), no
interest other MSs
France
Equitable
governance under
UNFCCC
UK, France, Germany,
EC (DG DEV, ENV)
Italy
Upfront finance Netherlands, UK,
POLAND!!
Germany

Power Analysis and Mapping
• What do we want to change?
• Policy, practice, belief?
• Obstacles?
• Opportunities?
• Who has influence over our change objectives?
• What institutions?
• Where?
• Who
• How- What actions will influence them?
• Best tools to use?

Power analysis & power mapping as part of
your programme’s advocacy and campaigning
• Put it at the core of any successful campaign strategy development.
• Dispel the myth—power analysis is not the same as power
mapping
• Integrate it at all the stages of strategy development
• Analysis happens within the media – so be on top of it!
• Ideally all members of the team should be part of power analysis
(programme officers/managers, communications staff,
advocacy/campaigns staff, MEL)
• “Share the love” of power analysis (allies, partners, experts).
• Power is not static: constantly update and review
• Don’t hesitate to block initiatives that are not based on rigorous
power analysis
• Don’t overdo it – rigorous but light! “good enough”

Questions AND NEXT
STEPS
Kala Constantino January 2015

Use of THEORY OF
CHANGE
in Advocacy work
Or how do you think change will happen?

Ways people describe theory of change
from Comic Relief Study
• Programme theory/ logic/ approach
• A road map for change
• A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map
• Pathways mapping
• Intervention theory/ framework/ logic
• A process of open enquiry and dialogue
• A clear and testable hypothesis
• A logic model
• A blueprint for evaluation
• Back to basics
• A direction of travel
• A sense of direction

Approaches to theory of change
• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes
expect to bring change
• OR
• Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more
broadly and then what that means for programme
interventions – including advocacy and influencing!
Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection
to explore change and how it happens – and what that means
for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy
campaign or programme

Key elements of a Theory of Change
• The context for change
• What is our overall vision for change – the lasting impact we
want to see and for whom?
• How does change happen for our target population in our
context?
• Our organisational (or programme) contribution to change
• What are the long-term changes needed in the lives of our target
population?
• Who and what needs to change in order to achieve those long-
term changes?
• What are the key approaches or strategies that we can
contribute that will be vital in bringing about change?

Questions to help you think about how
change might happen
• Looking at the context in society, opportunities, structures and
dynamics to determine how a desired change might come about i.e.
to meet your desired outcomes.
• What are the important local and national changes happening in
your context?
• What are the main obstacles (attitudes and beliefs, institutions,
economic or political players) to progressive change?
• Which of these changes are most relevant (whether positive or
negative) for poor and excluded people?

Theory of change questions
• What alliances (e.g. with sympathetic officials or
politicians, private sector, media, faith leaders or within
civil society) could drive/block the change?
• What tactics are likely to work best (co-operation vs
conflict, research vs street protest)?
• What are the pivotal moments/windows of
opportunity (e.g. new governments; changes of
leadership; crises and scandals; election timetables)?

Then thinking about Oxfam or your
organisations role in change?
• Working operationally and/or supporting others to
achieve the desired change
• Leveraging? Brokering? Convening? Lobbying?
• Advocacy and campaigning for change
• Bringing partners together with other actors to build
alliances (who are the partners?)
• Helping to develop particular aspects of partners’
organisational capacity e.g. in advocacy
• Creating pilot projects for replication and advocating for
adoption
• Funding
• Other roles?

Developing a Theory of Change
1. Define your desired impact
2. Outline the outcomes that the influencing will need to achieve to
bring about the impact
3. Conduct a context analysis and power mapping on the key
issues addressed by the influencing work e.g. who are the allies,
blockers, ‘swingers’ etc. and how can they be influenced?
4. Based on this, determine effective strategies to achieve
outcomes and any ‘intermediate outcomes’ along the way.
5. Pull together a theory of change (or logic model diagram)
illustrating the influencing impact, outcomes, and strategies and
your assumptions.
6. Test it with people who think differently and will challenge you and
your assumptions.

Levels at which change can happen in
advocacy and influencing work
Changing the terms of the debate
(in society and politically)
Developing a strong campaign proposition
Building a public constituency for change
Influencing the media
influencing policy makers
Changing attitudes and behaviours
Influencing political climate for
policy change
Sustaining political pressure for change
Sustaining media attention on issue
Achieving policy change
Maintaining pressure for
policy implementation
Compliance monitoring
Continuing media coverage
Influencing decision makers
Achieving practice change
Others?

Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy
and Influencing
lasting change
=
convinced decision makers
+
credible arguments
+
broad and intense support
+
an infrastructure that sustains change
+
mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustain
change (and sometimes are the change)

What do they look like?
• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing
one and what type of intervention
For instance
• Policy change focus only
• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy
change at national level
• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at
community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or
the creation of an enabling environment etc.

Theory of Change – Arms Trade Treaty

AcT theory of change:
‘Supporting civil society partners to implement
context-specific strategic interventions will enable
them to influence positive change in the attitudes
and behaviour of citizens, civil society and
government, making government as a whole more
responsive and accountable.’

• If civil society grantees are carefully selected and respond to individual support
tailored to their programming and internal systems, they will be able to develop
targeted strategic interventions which are sensitive to changes over time and in the
broader political economy, as well as their geographic location, their sector,
institutional mandate and values.
• And if grantees also commit to systematic learning individually and collectively the
work they do will be more the effective.
• CSOs implementing programmes will engage in a range of information generating
and disseminating activities as well as developing the capacity of other
stakeholders to articulate their roles and responsibilities.
• Some participatory activities build directly into citizen action and civil society
strengthening, whereas others focus on influencing the behaviour of elected and
appointed officials and of the judiciary – at local and national levels.
• Influencing activities can be formal or informal, inside track or outside track, and
CSOs become more adept at selecting which is going to be most effective under
what circumstances.
• The result of the behaviour changes on the part of key stakeholders is the purpose
level of the programme: ‘Increased responsiveness and accountability of
government through a strengthened civil society

Transforming
women’s + men’s
Consciousness
Transforming
women’s access
to resources
Transforming
formal Institutions,
laws
+ practices
Transforming
informal cultural
norms +
exclusionary
practices
Informal
Formal
Systemic
Individual
Outcome:
Increased # of individual
men and women, and
movements that promote
women’s rights and
reject VAW
So that:
• More women know their
rights
• Men and women have
positively transformed their
attitudes and behaviors –
and influenced others to
change theirs – on VAW
So that:
• Public services and
institutions are transformed
to support + empower VAW
survivors
• Donors and govts increase
budgets to end VAW
• More women are able to
organize collectively + take
action on VAW
• More women feel safe
• More survivors can access
justice
Outcome:
Survivors are more effectively
supported and have increasingly
acted as change agents in their
communities on VAW
Outcome
CSOs, especially WROs,
networks and movements,
have influenced duty
bearers, traditional
structures and practices to
protect women’s rights and
end impunity for VAW
So that:
• WROs and CSOs, community
groups and other informal
leaders effectively address
unequal power imbalance and
advocate for an end of VAW
• More women are able to
collectively participate in and
influence informal power
structures
• More women’s networks and
movements - especially young
women’s - have strengthened
their institutional capacity to
implement effective VAW
programs and advocate for
change
So that:
• Duty bearers demonstrate
their commitment to reduce
VAW and to transformational
change
• Women’s and mixed orgs
communicate evidence of
effective strategies
• Donors update their
frameworks to increase
funding to effective strategies
that address root causes of
VAW
Outcome
National / international
legislation, regulations and
services are implemented,
funded and women’s rights
to freedom from violence is
are upheld
Women's rights will have been
claimed and advanced
through a significant reduction in the social acceptance
and incidence of Violence against Women
Strategies
Action research
Awareness raising
Capacity development
Leadership development
Engage men and boys
Strategies
Model high quality
service delivery
Leadership development
Leverage greater
resources for an end
of VAW
Strategies
Action research
Advocacy and influencing
Strategic alliance bldg
Convene/broker access
of WROs
Strategies
Core support to WROs
Org capacity devt
Movement-building
Challenge cultural norms
Model strategies effective
in development +
+ humanitarian work
For transformation,
changes are often
needed in all
quadrants, and at
individual, household,
community, national,
and international levels

What are the benefits?
• A basis for planning
• A basis for MEL
• Rich source of ideas
• Recognising our own and others' theories of
change is helpful in alliance-building
• Helps deal with complexity
• Likely to increase your agility and impact
• Increasingly, required by funders

Strengthening of advocacy
‘Much of the writing and use of theory of change focuses
on its benefits in research and advocacy work. A theory
of change process can help focus advocacy targets
better and define more clearly the pathway to achieving
them, drawing on broad theories about how advocacy
works. Academic studies, some theory of change
guidance and key informants also argue that it provides a
convincing ‘story’ to use to influence policy – which can
be more effective than the ‘thumping fact’.’

Common mistakes we make...
1. We overcomplicate it
2. We develop a theory and never go back to it
3. We are restricted by the linear programme log frame
4. We fail to acknowledge our implicit existing theory & ideology
5. We don’t look beyond CSOs when mapping (binary world of
civil society and state)
6. We plan for steady state but we live responding to
opportunities
7. We assume the system is static until we arrive
8. We don’t keep a record of what’s happened

Questions?
Richard English - Oxfam January 2015

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