This document contains summaries of economic indicators from Spain, the Eurozone, and the US. For Spain, it notes a moderate increase in social security affiliates in June but significant job losses since March. Industrial production fell 24.5% in May from a year ago. The consumer confidence index increased in June but remains below 2019 levels. In the Eurozone, retail sales rose 17.8% in May from April as lockdowns eased but remain below January levels in most countries. For the US, manufacturing and services activity indices increased in July, signaling recovery, though employment remains contracted. The UNWTO forecasts significant declines in tourism GDP for many countries in 2020 due to COVID-19 disruptions.

1. -40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
60.7
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jun-13
Oct-13
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Oct-14
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18,0
18,5
19,0
19,5
20,0
2019
2020
May June
Emergency
stage
March 14th
AprilMarch
Labour market, Spain
In June, the number of affiliates to the
Social Security system registered a
moderate increase of 0.4% year-on-year,
to 18,624,337 people.
By sectors, construction experienced the
biggest increase at 3.7% month-on-
month, followed by industry (0.7%) and
the service sector (0.3%). On the other
hand, agriculture fell 3.2%.
In spite of the increase, the figures for the
close of June showed a loss of 99,906
Social Security affiliates between June 1st
and 30th (-0.5% compared to May) due
to the impact of Covid-19, leading to
851,801 job losses since March 13rd.
In June, 1.17 million people came out
from the Short-time work schemes, with
more than 1.8 million employees
remaining in that situation.
Unemployment registered an increase of
0.1% month-on-month in June (0.7% for
May 2019), reaching a total of 3,862,883
unemployed people.
Industrial production,Spain
In May, the Industrial Production Index
maintained its downward trend with a fall
of 24.5% year-on-year. However, the rate
was9.6ppabove April rateasaresultofthe
resumption of activity after the
economic standstill due to Covid-19.
By type of goods, they all registered
year-on-year decreases, with those of
consumer durables (-36.5%), capital goods
(-36.3%) and intermediate goods (-23.4%)
standing out.
By activity types, all have been affected,
with the garment sector (-79.5%) and the
car industry (-60.6%) suffering the biggest
decreases.
Consumer confidence
In June, the Consumer Confidence Index
(CCI)1 increased 7.8 points with respect
to May, reaching 60.7 points. This is the
second consecutive month of increases
after three months of decreases.
This development can be mostly
explained through enhanced
expectations (+12.3 points) to 30.9
points and assessment of the current
situation (+3.3) to 90.5.
Despite the upturn, the CCI is at levels
similar to those of 2013, and below the 100
points registered since June 2019.
Business…
at a glance July-August 2020
Consumer Confidence Index, Spain
Points
v
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2020.
Daily affiliates, Spain
Millons of workers
v
Industrial Production Index, Spain
YoY change (%)
v
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Labour, Migrations
and Social Security, 2020.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on CIS, 2020.
1
Value > 100 = positive perception, < 100 = negative perception.

2. ‘Business at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However,
the Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the
Círculo de Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
<8 >1
No data
30
35
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60
65
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Jun-20
ISM Non-Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing
-6.8
-18.4
-14.2
-40
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0
10
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20
Eurozone Belgium
Germany Spain
France Italy
Netherlands
Retail sales, Eurozone
In May, retail sales in the Eurozone
increased 17.8% month-on-month due
to the easing of lockdown measures in
most member states. This increase
contrasts with falls above 10% in March
and April.
In spite of this intense improvement, it
is still 6.8% below levels at the start of
the year. Among the main economies,
France and Spain remain at 18.4% and
14.2% below levels in January 2019.
On the other hand, Germany and
Netherlands have returned to positive
levels, with increases of 4.4% and 2.8%
respectively.
Economic activity, US
In spite of an increase in cases of
Covid-19, economic activity in the US is
showing signs of recovery.
In July, the ISM non-manufacturing
activity index registered the biggest
increase of its history (11.7 points), reach-
ing 57.1 points after the sharp falls of
March and April.Productionincreasedto
66 points and new orders to 61.6. On the
other hand,employment activity is still in
a downward phase (43.1 points).
The ISM manufacturing activity index
rose to 52.6 points, reaching maximum
levels of May 2019.
This increase can be explained by the
reception of new orders, in spite of the
fact that employment activity remains in
a phase of contraction.
Tourist industry, UNWTO
The UNWTO (United Nations World
Tourism Organization) has warned that
the lockdown measures still present in
some countries, travel restrictions,
reduced consumer purchasing power and
low levels of confidence could
significantly slow down recovery of the
tourism sector.
For 2020, the organization forecasts
three scenarios with decreases in
accordance with the number of months
that international tourism remains
disrupted:
- With 4 months of disruption, direct
and indirect loses would reach
$1.2 trillion (1.5% of World GDP).
- With 8 months of disruption,
$2 trillion (2.8% of World GDP).
- With 12 months of disruption,
$3.3 trillion (4.2% of World GDP).
By countries, in the most optimistic
scenario, emerging economies could
experience the biggest GDP decreases,
with Jamaica and Thailand (11% and 9%
of GDP, respectively) standing out.
For its part, Spain, with estimated losses
of $44 billion (3% of GDP), is in 15th
place in the list of countries that will be
most affected.
Covid-19 impact on tourist sector
% of GDP (optimistic scenario)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on UNWTO, 2020.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat, 2020.
Retail sales, Eurozone
Change from January 2020 (%)
v
Economic activity index, US
Points, >50 = expansion
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Institute for Supply Management, 2020.