LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
PREPARED BY:
GLOBAL MARKET
INSIGHTS
APRIL, 2016
WORLD EMPLOYMENT & SOCIAL OUTLOOK
• The global economy is showing new signs of weakness
pushing unemployment to over 197 million in 2015 and making
existing jobs increasingly vulnerable
• The outlook is for unemployment to increase by a further 3.4
million over the next two years and for slower progress in
reducing vulnerable employment, which could reach 1.5 billion
by 2016 leading to a pause in the expansion of the middle class
and, in some cases, intensified risk of social unrest stalling
efforts to further reduce working poverty and complicating the
tasks of increasing growth and meeting demographic challenges
• Policy focus on quantity and quality of jobs and tackling income
inequality is paramount
2
2016 TRENDS
Source: International Labour Office, ILO.org, “World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2016”
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - UPDATE
• Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015,
is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017
3
SUBDUED DEMAND, DIMINISHED PROSPECTS
Source: International Monetary Fund, imf.org, “World Economic Outlook – Update”, January 2016
3.4
3.1
3.4 3.6
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6
2.9
2.2 2.2 2.2
0.2
1.1 1.3 1.51.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
-0.4
0.8
1.3 1.2
2014 2015 2016 2017
World Economic Outlook Projections, % YoY
World Output United States United Kingdom France Germany Italy
2016 ECONOMIC FORECASTS
2015
GDP Estimate
2016
GDP Forecast
2015
Unemployment
Rate Estimate
2016
Unemployment
Rate Forecast
US +2.6% +2.8% 5.3% 4.9%
UK +2.5% +2.2% 5.6% 5.5%
FR +1.2% +1.5% 10.2% 9.9%
DE +1.5% +1.6% 4.7% 4.7%
IT +0.8% +1.3% 12.2% 11.9%
NL +1.8% +1.9% 7.2% 7.0%
4
Source: International Monetary Fund, imf.org, “World Economic Outlook Database”, October 2015
LABOR SHORTAGE
AND SURPLUS
PROJECTIONS
5
By 2030, most countries
will face labor shortages
including those with
slight surpluses of
between 0 and 5 percent;
representing natural
unemployment, in which
job openings are already
difficult to fill
Source: The Boston Consulting Group
UNITED STATES
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
US LABOR MARKET UPDATE
• U.S. adds 215,000 new jobs in March as more workers enter the
labor force
• The unemployment rate rose a notch to 5% from 4.9% because
more Americans joined the labor force
• The size of the labor force has increased by 2 million people in
the past five months
• The influx of new workers and jobseekers pushed the labor
force participation rate up to 63% - the highest level in two
years
• 4th-quarter GDP raised to 1.4% almost entirely because of
higher consumer spending on recreation and transportation
7
CURRENT EMPLOYMENT
SITUATION: MAR 2016
Change from February 2016:
Total non-farm payroll: +215,000
Private-sector payroll: +195,000
• Retail +48K
• Leisure/Hospitality +40K
• Healthcare +37K
• Construction +37K
• Professional/Business Services +33K
• Finance +15K
• Transportation -3K
• Manufacturing -29K
Temporary Help: +4,000
Government: +20,000
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.0%
8
5.5M AVAILABLE
JOBS
159M
IN THE U.S. WORKFORCE
8.0MUNEMPLOYED
PEOPLE IN THE U.S.
GDP +1.4% IN Q4 2015
LABOR PARTICIPATION
RATE: 63.0%
US JOBS: AT A GLANCE
9
The U.S. unemployment rate was relatively
unchanged at 5.0% in March 2016, near
the post peak low of 4.9%. The
unemployment rate peaked in October
2009 at 10.0% and is now 5.0 percentage
points lower.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. MONTHLY JOBS GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS)
The U.S. created 215,000 new jobs in
March 2016. The U.S. has been creating
more than 200,000 jobs a month since
2014.
MAR: 5.0%
MAR: 215K
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NonFarm
U.S. JOBS BY INDUSTRY: MAR 2016
Industry
Employment
(in thousands)
Employment,
%
MoM%
Change
MoM Net
Change
Total nonfarm 143,774K 100% +0.1% +215K
Total private 121,692K 85% +0.2% +195K
Professional and business
services 20,042K 14% +0.2% +33K
Retail trade 15,942K 11% +0.3% +48K
Leisure and hospitality 15,461K 11% +0.3% +40K
Health care 15,420K 11% +0.2% +37K
Manufacturing 12,291K 9% -0.2% -29K
Financial activities 8,227K 6% +0.2% +15K
Construction 6,672K 5% +0.6% +37K
Transportation / warehousing 4,859K 3% -0.1% -3K
All Other Industries 22,778K 16% +0.1% +17K
Government 22,082K 15% +0.1% +20K
10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
PRIVATE SECTOR
TOTAL NON-FARM PAYROLL
+586K
GOVERNMENT
+42K
+628K
UNEMPLOYMEN
T RATE
5.0%
Retail +181K
Leisure/hospitality +119K
Health Care +118K
Construction +75K
Professional +61K
- Temporary -52K
Financial activities +37K
Education +15K
Manufacturing -29K
Transportation -30K
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
2016-YTD
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
U.S. ECONOMY
12
The U.S. labor force increased by 396,000
(+0.2%) from February 2016 to March 2016 and
remained higher than the year prior, an increase
of 2.4 million (+1.5%) to 159,286,000 persons.
The size of the labor force has increased by 2
million people in the past five months.
The Labor Force (aka Workforce) is the sum of
employed and unemployed persons in the U.S.
The U.S. labor force participation improved to
63.0%; the highest level in two years. The
participation rate peaked in 2000 at 67.3%.
Participation was at a post-peak low of 62.4% in
September 2015 and is 4.3 percentage points
below the 2000 peak.
The participation rate measures the active portion
of the labor force; the number of people who are
either employed or are actively looking for work.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. MONTHLY LABOR FORCE GROWTH
(IN THOUSANDS)
MAR: +396k
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE
MAR: 63.0%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
$15,200
$15,400
$15,600
$15,800
$16,000
$16,200
$16,400
$16,600
4Q2013
1Q2014
2Q2014
3Q2014
4Q2014
1Q2015
2Q2015
3Q2015
4Q2015
%Year-over-Year
RealGDP(inbillions)
U.S. REAL GDP
Real GDP (2009 Chained Dollars) % YoY
U.S. GDP
13
The U.S. Real GDP was $16,455.1 billion in the
fourth quarter of 2015. Real GDP increased at an
annual rate of 1.4% (third estimate), down from
an increase of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2015.
Real GDP is the value of the goods and services
produced by the nation’s economy less the value
of the goods and services used up in production,
adjusted for price changes.
Source: BEA.gov
U.S. JOB OPENINGS
14
There were 5.5 million job openings on the last
business day of January 2016, an increase of
260,000 jobs (+4.9%) since December 2015. Job
openings rose by 569,000 jobs (+11.4%) since
the year prior.
(February 2016 results have not yet been
released.)
The number of quits fell to 2.8 million (-284,000)
in January 2016. The quits rate fell to 2% from
2.2%.
The quits rate is a proxy for worker confidence as
willingness to leave a job usually indicates a
better job is on the horizon.
(February 2016 results have not yet been
released.)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. JOB OPENINGS (IN THOUSANDS)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
JAN: 5.54M
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. QUIT RATE
JAN: 2.0%
U.S. TEMPORARY HELP EMPLOYMENT
15
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. TEMPORARY HELP SERVICES –
MONTHLY JOB GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS)There were 2.9 million temporary help jobs in the
U.S. in March 2016. The number of persons
employed in U.S. temporary help jobs increased
by 4,000 (+0.1%) jobs over the month or rose by
55,000 (+1.9%) from the year prior.
Temporary help services employment has
traditionally been viewed as a leading economic
indicator to overall employment or the general
economy.
The temporary help services industry is the
largest component of the staffing industry and is
comprised of companies that employ workers to
do temporary work on the premises of, and under
the supervision of, customers.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MAR: +4k
U.S. BEVERIDGE CURVE
16
Job openings continue to climb,
yet unemployment remains
higher than pre-recession levels.
In January 2016, the job
openings rate was 3.7% and the
unemployment rate was 4.9%,
which is higher than the job
openings rate before the most
recent recession for the same
unemployment rate.
From 2010 to today, nearly each
month’s point moved up and to
the left as the job openings rate
increased and the unemployment
rate decreased.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
17
New projections from October 2015 show GDP
growth in the U.S. is forecast to be 2.6% in 2015
and 2.8% in 2016.
The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to be
5.3% in 2015 and 4.9% in 2016; the forecast was
updated in October 2015.
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
U.S. GDP GROWTH RATE, %
Actual Forecast
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
U.S. SUPPLY AND DEMAND
18
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jobs(inthousands)
LaborForce(inmillions)
U.S. LABOR FORCE VS U.S. TOTAL AVAILABLE JOBS
Labor Force (MM) Total Available Jobs (000s)
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
134
136
138
140
142
144
146
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jobs(inthousands)
Employment(inmillions)
U.S. NONFARM PAYROLL VS U.S. TOTAL AVAILABLE JOBS
Employment (MM) Total Available Jobs (000s)
There were 9.2 million advertised online jobs posted in the U.S. in March 2016. The number of advertised jobs increased
by 322,000 in March compared to an increase of 396,000 in the U.S. Workforce and a gain of 215,000 in nonfarm
employment.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wanted Analytics, a CEB Company
U.S. MILLENNIALS, AGED 16 TO 34
19
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. MILLENNIALS – MONTHLY JOBS GROWTH
(IN THOUSANDS)
There were 52.6 million millennials employed in
the U.S. in March 2016. The number of
millennials employed in U.S. jobs increased by
126,000 (+0.2%) jobs over the month or rose by
1.3 million (+2.5%) from the year prior.
The Millennial generation is defined here as those
born between 1982 and 2000 and are between
the ages of 16 and 34 in 2016.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
U.S. MILLENNIALS - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
The U.S. unemployment rate for Millennials
remained at 7.1% in March 2016 at a post peak
low. The unemployment rate peaked in April 2010
at 13.9% and is now 6.8 percentage points lower.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
MAR: 7.1%
MAR: 126K
UNITED
KINGDOM
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
U.K. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
21
There were 31,331,000 jobs in the U.K. in Q4
2015. The number of persons employed
increased by 210,000 jobs (+0.7%) from the prior
quarter or gained 520,000 jobs (+1.7%) year-
over-year.
(Q1 data are not currently available)
The UK harmonised unemployment rate for Q3
2015 was 5.3%, down from 5.9% a year ago.
(Q4 data are not currently available)
Source: OECD.StatExtracts
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
31,500
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
4q2015
UK EMPLOYMENT (000)
Employment YoY
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
3q2012
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
U.K. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
22
Projections updated in October 2015 show GDP
growth in the U.K. is forecast to be 2.5% in 2015
and 2.2% in 2016.
The U.K. unemployment rate is projected to be
5.6% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016.
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
UK GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY
Actual Forecast
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
FRANCE
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
FRANCE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
24
There were 26,397,000 jobs in France in Q4 2015.
The number of persons employed decreased by
4,000 jobs compared to the prior quarter yet rose
by 20,000 jobs compared to the prior year’s
quarter. (Q1 data are not currently available)
The France harmonised unemployment rate for
Q4 2015 was 10.1%, up from 10.5% a year ago.
(Q1 data are not currently available)
Source: OECD.StatExtracts
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
25,200
25,400
25,600
25,800
26,000
26,200
26,400
26,600
4q2012
3q2012
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
FRANCE EMPLOYMENT (000)
Employment YoY
9.9%
10.0%
10.1%
10.2%
10.3%
10.4%
10.5%
10.6%
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
4q2015
FRANCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
FRANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
25
Projections updated in October 2015 show GDP
growth in France is forecast to be 1.2% in 2015
and 1.5% in 2016.
The France unemployment rate is projected to be
10.2% in 2015 and 9.9% in 2016.
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
FRANCE GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY
Actual Forecast
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
FRANCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
GERMANY
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
GERMANY ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
27
There were 40,130,000 jobs in Germany in Q3
2015. The number of persons employed
increased by 88,000 jobs quarter-over-quarter
and 193,000 year-over-year.
(Q4 data are not currently available)
The Germany harmonised unemployment rate for
Q4 2015 was 4.4% down from a rate of 4.6% a
year ago. (Q1 data are not currently available)
Source: OECD.StatExtracts
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
38,500
39,000
39,500
40,000
40,500
3q2012
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
GERMANY EMPLOYMENT (000)
Employment YoY
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
4q2015
GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
GERMANY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
28
Projections updated in October 2015 show GDP
growth in Germany is forecast to be 1.5% in 2015
and 1.6% in 2016.
The Germany unemployment rate is projected to
be 4.7% in 2015 and 2016.
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GERMANY GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY
Actual Forecast
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
ITALY
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
ITALY ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
30
There were 22,516,000 jobs in Italy in Q4 2015.
The number of persons employed remained
unchanged quarter-over-quarter and rose
178,000 year-over-year. (Q1 data are not
currently available)
The Italy harmonised unemployment rate for Q4
2015 was 11.5%, down from 12.8% a year ago.
(Q1 data are not currently available)
Source: OECD.StatExtracts
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
21,900
22,000
22,100
22,200
22,300
22,400
22,500
22,600
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2Q2015
3q2015
4Q2015
ITALY EMPLOYMENT (000)
Employment YoY
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
4q2015
ITALY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
ITALY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
31
New October 2015 projections show GDP growth
in Italy is forecast to turn positive and be 0.8% in
2015 and 1.3% in 2016.
The Italy unemployment rate is projected to be
12.2% in 2015 and 11.9% in 2016.
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ITALY GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY
Actual Forecast
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
ITALY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
NETHERLANDS
LABOR MARKET
UPDATE
NETHERLANDS ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
33
There were 8,329,000 jobs in the Netherlands in
Q3 2015. The number of persons employed
decreased by 2,000 jobs compared to the prior
quarter and expanded by 84,000 compared to the
prior year’s quarter. (Q4 data are not currently
available)
The Netherlands harmonised unemployment rate
for Q4 2015 was 6.7% compared to 7.1% a year
ago. (Q1 data are not currently available)
Source: OECD.StatExtracts
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
8,100
8,150
8,200
8,250
8,300
8,350
8,400
3q2012
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
NETHERLANDS EMPLOYMENT (000)
Employment YoY
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
4q2012
1q2013
2q2013
3q2013
4q2013
1q2014
2q2014
3q2014
4q2014
1q2015
2q2015
3q2015
4q2015
NETHERLANDS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
NETHERLANDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
34
New October 2015 projections show GDP growth
in the Netherlands is forecast to be 1.8% in 2015
and 1.9% in 2016.
The Netherlands unemployment rate is projected
to be 7.2% in 2015 and 7.0% in 2016.
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NETHERLANDS GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY
Actual Forecast
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
NETHERLANDS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
Actual Forecast
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

Labor market update 2016

  • 1.
    LABOR MARKET UPDATE PREPARED BY: GLOBALMARKET INSIGHTS APRIL, 2016
  • 2.
    WORLD EMPLOYMENT &SOCIAL OUTLOOK • The global economy is showing new signs of weakness pushing unemployment to over 197 million in 2015 and making existing jobs increasingly vulnerable • The outlook is for unemployment to increase by a further 3.4 million over the next two years and for slower progress in reducing vulnerable employment, which could reach 1.5 billion by 2016 leading to a pause in the expansion of the middle class and, in some cases, intensified risk of social unrest stalling efforts to further reduce working poverty and complicating the tasks of increasing growth and meeting demographic challenges • Policy focus on quantity and quality of jobs and tackling income inequality is paramount 2 2016 TRENDS Source: International Labour Office, ILO.org, “World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2016”
  • 3.
    WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK- UPDATE • Global growth, currently estimated at 3.1 percent in 2015, is projected at 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017 3 SUBDUED DEMAND, DIMINISHED PROSPECTS Source: International Monetary Fund, imf.org, “World Economic Outlook – Update”, January 2016 3.4 3.1 3.4 3.6 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 0.2 1.1 1.3 1.51.6 1.5 1.7 1.7 -0.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 World Economic Outlook Projections, % YoY World Output United States United Kingdom France Germany Italy
  • 4.
    2016 ECONOMIC FORECASTS 2015 GDPEstimate 2016 GDP Forecast 2015 Unemployment Rate Estimate 2016 Unemployment Rate Forecast US +2.6% +2.8% 5.3% 4.9% UK +2.5% +2.2% 5.6% 5.5% FR +1.2% +1.5% 10.2% 9.9% DE +1.5% +1.6% 4.7% 4.7% IT +0.8% +1.3% 12.2% 11.9% NL +1.8% +1.9% 7.2% 7.0% 4 Source: International Monetary Fund, imf.org, “World Economic Outlook Database”, October 2015
  • 5.
    LABOR SHORTAGE AND SURPLUS PROJECTIONS 5 By2030, most countries will face labor shortages including those with slight surpluses of between 0 and 5 percent; representing natural unemployment, in which job openings are already difficult to fill Source: The Boston Consulting Group
  • 6.
  • 7.
    US LABOR MARKETUPDATE • U.S. adds 215,000 new jobs in March as more workers enter the labor force • The unemployment rate rose a notch to 5% from 4.9% because more Americans joined the labor force • The size of the labor force has increased by 2 million people in the past five months • The influx of new workers and jobseekers pushed the labor force participation rate up to 63% - the highest level in two years • 4th-quarter GDP raised to 1.4% almost entirely because of higher consumer spending on recreation and transportation 7
  • 8.
    CURRENT EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAR2016 Change from February 2016: Total non-farm payroll: +215,000 Private-sector payroll: +195,000 • Retail +48K • Leisure/Hospitality +40K • Healthcare +37K • Construction +37K • Professional/Business Services +33K • Finance +15K • Transportation -3K • Manufacturing -29K Temporary Help: +4,000 Government: +20,000 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 5.0% 8 5.5M AVAILABLE JOBS 159M IN THE U.S. WORKFORCE 8.0MUNEMPLOYED PEOPLE IN THE U.S. GDP +1.4% IN Q4 2015 LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE: 63.0%
  • 9.
    US JOBS: ATA GLANCE 9 The U.S. unemployment rate was relatively unchanged at 5.0% in March 2016, near the post peak low of 4.9%. The unemployment rate peaked in October 2009 at 10.0% and is now 5.0 percentage points lower. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. MONTHLY JOBS GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS) The U.S. created 215,000 new jobs in March 2016. The U.S. has been creating more than 200,000 jobs a month since 2014. MAR: 5.0% MAR: 215K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics NonFarm
  • 10.
    U.S. JOBS BYINDUSTRY: MAR 2016 Industry Employment (in thousands) Employment, % MoM% Change MoM Net Change Total nonfarm 143,774K 100% +0.1% +215K Total private 121,692K 85% +0.2% +195K Professional and business services 20,042K 14% +0.2% +33K Retail trade 15,942K 11% +0.3% +48K Leisure and hospitality 15,461K 11% +0.3% +40K Health care 15,420K 11% +0.2% +37K Manufacturing 12,291K 9% -0.2% -29K Financial activities 8,227K 6% +0.2% +15K Construction 6,672K 5% +0.6% +37K Transportation / warehousing 4,859K 3% -0.1% -3K All Other Industries 22,778K 16% +0.1% +17K Government 22,082K 15% +0.1% +20K 10 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 11.
    PRIVATE SECTOR TOTAL NON-FARMPAYROLL +586K GOVERNMENT +42K +628K UNEMPLOYMEN T RATE 5.0% Retail +181K Leisure/hospitality +119K Health Care +118K Construction +75K Professional +61K - Temporary -52K Financial activities +37K Education +15K Manufacturing -29K Transportation -30K EMPLOYMENT SITUATION 2016-YTD Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 11
  • 12.
    U.S. ECONOMY 12 The U.S.labor force increased by 396,000 (+0.2%) from February 2016 to March 2016 and remained higher than the year prior, an increase of 2.4 million (+1.5%) to 159,286,000 persons. The size of the labor force has increased by 2 million people in the past five months. The Labor Force (aka Workforce) is the sum of employed and unemployed persons in the U.S. The U.S. labor force participation improved to 63.0%; the highest level in two years. The participation rate peaked in 2000 at 67.3%. Participation was at a post-peak low of 62.4% in September 2015 and is 4.3 percentage points below the 2000 peak. The participation rate measures the active portion of the labor force; the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. MONTHLY LABOR FORCE GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS) MAR: +396k 60% 61% 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE MAR: 63.0%
  • 13.
    -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% $15,200 $15,400 $15,600 $15,800 $16,000 $16,200 $16,400 $16,600 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 %Year-over-Year RealGDP(inbillions) U.S. REAL GDP RealGDP (2009 Chained Dollars) % YoY U.S. GDP 13 The U.S. Real GDP was $16,455.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.4% (third estimate), down from an increase of 2.0% in the third quarter of 2015. Real GDP is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes. Source: BEA.gov
  • 14.
    U.S. JOB OPENINGS 14 Therewere 5.5 million job openings on the last business day of January 2016, an increase of 260,000 jobs (+4.9%) since December 2015. Job openings rose by 569,000 jobs (+11.4%) since the year prior. (February 2016 results have not yet been released.) The number of quits fell to 2.8 million (-284,000) in January 2016. The quits rate fell to 2% from 2.2%. The quits rate is a proxy for worker confidence as willingness to leave a job usually indicates a better job is on the horizon. (February 2016 results have not yet been released.) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. JOB OPENINGS (IN THOUSANDS) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JAN: 5.54M 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. QUIT RATE JAN: 2.0%
  • 15.
    U.S. TEMPORARY HELPEMPLOYMENT 15 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. TEMPORARY HELP SERVICES – MONTHLY JOB GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS)There were 2.9 million temporary help jobs in the U.S. in March 2016. The number of persons employed in U.S. temporary help jobs increased by 4,000 (+0.1%) jobs over the month or rose by 55,000 (+1.9%) from the year prior. Temporary help services employment has traditionally been viewed as a leading economic indicator to overall employment or the general economy. The temporary help services industry is the largest component of the staffing industry and is comprised of companies that employ workers to do temporary work on the premises of, and under the supervision of, customers. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics MAR: +4k
  • 16.
    U.S. BEVERIDGE CURVE 16 Jobopenings continue to climb, yet unemployment remains higher than pre-recession levels. In January 2016, the job openings rate was 3.7% and the unemployment rate was 4.9%, which is higher than the job openings rate before the most recent recession for the same unemployment rate. From 2010 to today, nearly each month’s point moved up and to the left as the job openings rate increased and the unemployment rate decreased. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • 17.
    U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 17 Newprojections from October 2015 show GDP growth in the U.S. is forecast to be 2.6% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. The U.S. unemployment rate is projected to be 5.3% in 2015 and 4.9% in 2016; the forecast was updated in October 2015. -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 U.S. GDP GROWTH RATE, % Actual Forecast 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 18.
    U.S. SUPPLY ANDDEMAND 18 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jobs(inthousands) LaborForce(inmillions) U.S. LABOR FORCE VS U.S. TOTAL AVAILABLE JOBS Labor Force (MM) Total Available Jobs (000s) 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 134 136 138 140 142 144 146 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jobs(inthousands) Employment(inmillions) U.S. NONFARM PAYROLL VS U.S. TOTAL AVAILABLE JOBS Employment (MM) Total Available Jobs (000s) There were 9.2 million advertised online jobs posted in the U.S. in March 2016. The number of advertised jobs increased by 322,000 in March compared to an increase of 396,000 in the U.S. Workforce and a gain of 215,000 in nonfarm employment. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Wanted Analytics, a CEB Company
  • 19.
    U.S. MILLENNIALS, AGED16 TO 34 19 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. MILLENNIALS – MONTHLY JOBS GROWTH (IN THOUSANDS) There were 52.6 million millennials employed in the U.S. in March 2016. The number of millennials employed in U.S. jobs increased by 126,000 (+0.2%) jobs over the month or rose by 1.3 million (+2.5%) from the year prior. The Millennial generation is defined here as those born between 1982 and 2000 and are between the ages of 16 and 34 in 2016. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 U.S. MILLENNIALS - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE The U.S. unemployment rate for Millennials remained at 7.1% in March 2016 at a post peak low. The unemployment rate peaked in April 2010 at 13.9% and is now 6.8 percentage points lower. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics MAR: 7.1% MAR: 126K
  • 20.
  • 21.
    U.K. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 21 Therewere 31,331,000 jobs in the U.K. in Q4 2015. The number of persons employed increased by 210,000 jobs (+0.7%) from the prior quarter or gained 520,000 jobs (+1.7%) year- over-year. (Q1 data are not currently available) The UK harmonised unemployment rate for Q3 2015 was 5.3%, down from 5.9% a year ago. (Q4 data are not currently available) Source: OECD.StatExtracts 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 28,500 29,000 29,500 30,000 30,500 31,000 31,500 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 4q2015 UK EMPLOYMENT (000) Employment YoY 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 3q2012 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
  • 22.
    U.K. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 22 Projectionsupdated in October 2015 show GDP growth in the U.K. is forecast to be 2.5% in 2015 and 2.2% in 2016. The U.K. unemployment rate is projected to be 5.6% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2016. -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 UK GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY Actual Forecast 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 UK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 23.
  • 24.
    FRANCE ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 24 Therewere 26,397,000 jobs in France in Q4 2015. The number of persons employed decreased by 4,000 jobs compared to the prior quarter yet rose by 20,000 jobs compared to the prior year’s quarter. (Q1 data are not currently available) The France harmonised unemployment rate for Q4 2015 was 10.1%, up from 10.5% a year ago. (Q1 data are not currently available) Source: OECD.StatExtracts -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 25,200 25,400 25,600 25,800 26,000 26,200 26,400 26,600 4q2012 3q2012 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 FRANCE EMPLOYMENT (000) Employment YoY 9.9% 10.0% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5% 10.6% 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 4q2015 FRANCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
  • 25.
    FRANCE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 25 Projectionsupdated in October 2015 show GDP growth in France is forecast to be 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016. The France unemployment rate is projected to be 10.2% in 2015 and 9.9% in 2016. -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FRANCE GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY Actual Forecast 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FRANCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 26.
  • 27.
    GERMANY ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 27 Therewere 40,130,000 jobs in Germany in Q3 2015. The number of persons employed increased by 88,000 jobs quarter-over-quarter and 193,000 year-over-year. (Q4 data are not currently available) The Germany harmonised unemployment rate for Q4 2015 was 4.4% down from a rate of 4.6% a year ago. (Q1 data are not currently available) Source: OECD.StatExtracts 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 38,500 39,000 39,500 40,000 40,500 3q2012 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 GERMANY EMPLOYMENT (000) Employment YoY 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 4q2015 GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
  • 28.
    GERMANY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28 Projectionsupdated in October 2015 show GDP growth in Germany is forecast to be 1.5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. The Germany unemployment rate is projected to be 4.7% in 2015 and 2016. -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GERMANY GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY Actual Forecast 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GERMANY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 29.
  • 30.
    ITALY ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 30 Therewere 22,516,000 jobs in Italy in Q4 2015. The number of persons employed remained unchanged quarter-over-quarter and rose 178,000 year-over-year. (Q1 data are not currently available) The Italy harmonised unemployment rate for Q4 2015 was 11.5%, down from 12.8% a year ago. (Q1 data are not currently available) Source: OECD.StatExtracts -2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 21,900 22,000 22,100 22,200 22,300 22,400 22,500 22,600 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2Q2015 3q2015 4Q2015 ITALY EMPLOYMENT (000) Employment YoY 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 4q2015 ITALY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
  • 31.
    ITALY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 31 NewOctober 2015 projections show GDP growth in Italy is forecast to turn positive and be 0.8% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016. The Italy unemployment rate is projected to be 12.2% in 2015 and 11.9% in 2016. -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ITALY GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY Actual Forecast 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ITALY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
  • 32.
  • 33.
    NETHERLANDS ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 33 Therewere 8,329,000 jobs in the Netherlands in Q3 2015. The number of persons employed decreased by 2,000 jobs compared to the prior quarter and expanded by 84,000 compared to the prior year’s quarter. (Q4 data are not currently available) The Netherlands harmonised unemployment rate for Q4 2015 was 6.7% compared to 7.1% a year ago. (Q1 data are not currently available) Source: OECD.StatExtracts -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 8,100 8,150 8,200 8,250 8,300 8,350 8,400 3q2012 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 NETHERLANDS EMPLOYMENT (000) Employment YoY 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 4q2012 1q2013 2q2013 3q2013 4q2013 1q2014 2q2014 3q2014 4q2014 1q2015 2q2015 3q2015 4q2015 NETHERLANDS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, %
  • 34.
    NETHERLANDS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 34 NewOctober 2015 projections show GDP growth in the Netherlands is forecast to be 1.8% in 2015 and 1.9% in 2016. The Netherlands unemployment rate is projected to be 7.2% in 2015 and 7.0% in 2016. -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NETHERLANDS GDP GROWTH RATE, % YOY Actual Forecast 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 NETHERLANDS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, % Actual Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook

Editor's Notes

  • #4 World Economic Outlook Reports - A survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text. http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29
  • #5 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 GDP=Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices, Percent Change Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #6 BCG.Perspectives
  • #9 Nonfarm Payrolls by Industry Sector Month-over-month change, Seasonally Adjusted http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ce http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm (detailed view, Table B-1) Temporary Help Services (Industry) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf Temporary Help Services Employment - CES6056132001 Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1 Job Openings http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000JOL
  • #10 News Release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Schedule: Monthly, FIRST FRIDAY OF MONTH Unemployed and Unemployment Rate http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm Nonfarm Payroll: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
  • #11 Nonfarm Payrolls by Industry Sector, Seasonally Adjusted http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceseeb1a.htm http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm (detailed view, Table B-1)
  • #13 Civilian Labor Force and Participation Rate Data: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab1.htm
  • #14 Real GDP: News Release: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm Dollar Data: http://bea.gov/national/xls/gdplev.xls Change Data: http://bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls Schedule: Quarterly (advanced), FOURTH WEEK AFTER QUARTER ENDS, Quarterly (final), THREE MONTHS AFTER THE QUARTER ENDS
  • #15 Job Openings: News Release: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm Data: Openings - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000JOL Quits - http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/JTS00000000QUR Schedule: Monthly, SECOND TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWIN MONTH (e.g., Jan 2015 => 10 Mar 2015)
  • #16 Data Changes: With the release of January 2016 data on February 5, 2016, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program implemented publication changes. Most of these changes were related to the annual sample review, but others were due to the publication of additional employment data with the first preliminary release of monthly estimates.  Within Prof/Biz Industry http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm (Table B-1) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES6056132001 Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National) Original Data Value Series Id: CES6056132001 Seasonally Adjusted Super Sector: Professional and business services Industry: Temporary help services NAICS Code: 56132 Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS
  • #17 http://www.bls.gov/web/jolts/jlt_labstatgraphs.pdf The Beveridge Curve shows the relationship between Job Openings and the Unemployment Level, which reflects the state of the business cycle. Typically, the relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate is tight (known as the Beveridge Curve).   During an expansion, the unemployment rate is low and the job openings rate is high. Conversely, during a contraction, the unemployment rate is high and the job openings rate is low. The position of the curve is determined by the efficiency of the labor market. For example, a greater mismatch between available jobs and the unemployed in terms of skills or location would cause the curve to shift outward, up and toward the right.   From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, each month’s point on the curve moved lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. From 2010 to the present, the point moved up and to the left as the job openings rate increased and the unemployment rate decreased. The outward shift in the Beveridge Curve may be due to a greater mismatch between available jobs and the unemployment in terms of skills or location, or that employers are delaying hiring due to economic uncertainty.   Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Editor's Desk, Job openings and the Beveridge curve, December 2000–March 2014 on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2014/ted_20140513.htm (visited May 15, 2014). Other References: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr687.pdf The relationship shown by the Beveridge Curve was remarkably strong from 2000 to 2007. If job openings climbed, the unemployment rate tended to fall, as one would expect. During the recession, the unemployment rate soared toward 10%, and the availability of job openings plummeted. But then, in the recovery, something strange happened. The openings rate began to climb, yet unemployment remained stubbornly high. The new job listings were not being filled by the vast number of unemployed workers. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/08/26/peter-diamond-thinks-the-beveridge-curve-might-not-tell-us-much-of-anything/
  • #18 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #20 Data Series, http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/srgate Series Id: LNS11000012 LNS12000012 LNS13000012 LNS14000012 LNS11000036 LNS12000036 LNS13000036 LNS14000036 LNS11000089 LNS12000089 LNS13000089 LNS14000089
  • #22 Employed Population and Harmonised Unemployment Rates http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR
  • #23 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #25 Employed Population and Hamonised Unemployment Rates http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR
  • #26 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #28 Employed Population and Hamonised Unemployment Rates http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR
  • #29 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #31 Employed Population and Hamonised Unemployment Rates http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR
  • #32 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
  • #34 Employed Population and Hamonised Unemployment Rates http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=STLABOUR
  • #35 World Economic Outlook Reports: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29 World Economic Outlook Databases: http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 Schedule: Biannually, APRIL AND SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER