The August 2014 economic report highlights a slowdown in global growth, particularly in the eurozone and BRIC countries, with significant decreases in long-term interest rates and rising international political tensions. Unemployment is rising in France, while the U.S. sees an upward GDP revision, indicating some regional disparities in economic performance. Commodities prices have shifted, particularly oil, reflecting broader economic conditions and global inventory levels.

1. OFP Monthly Charts Report
Economic analysis and Assets performance
07/31/2014 - 08/31/2014
August 2014 - Monthly 8

2. Key elements of the month
Main elements of past month
The global economy growth rate slows under the weakness of the Euro zone, Japan and the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).
Very significant decrease in long-term interest rates for developed countries (German 10Y under 1%, France 10Y is at 1.25%).
Rise in international political tensions (Ukraine, Middle East).
Europe
Inflation slightly down in the Euro Zone 0.3% (against 0.4% in July) with a commodity effect. Slight increase in the underlying inflation at 0.9% against 0.8%.
Decrease in the IFO business confidence index in Germany, downside risk linked to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.
Sharp rise in unemployment in France and deterioration in industry confidence surveys. Slight improvement in services.
North and South America
NAHB index comes back to 55 and suggests a momentumsupported to construction thanks to a general trend of low interest rates (08/18).
GDP 2nd revision in the United States came out at 4.2% annual rate, upward revisionmainly due to investment (08/28).
In Brazil, no change in the main indicators: Industrial PMI in decline (08/27) and the same for household confidence (08/25).
Asia Pasific
Japanese economy in sharp contraction in the 2nd quarter (-6.8% compared to Q1) and very low bounce expected for Q3.
Concerns on Chinese real estate remain, increasing the probabilities of default from real estate developers.
South Korea policy rates decrease to cope with the global economic downturn.
Commodities Markets
Small change in North American grain products, Corn andWheat remain unchanged despite concerns about the Ukrainian harvest.
On August,WTI price recorded a significant drop (about $5 per barrel), which is a good sign for oil at the pump.
At the international level, ocean freight rates (containers) showed a slight increase (Harpex index).
2 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

3. Prolog - World
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 3

4. Prolog - World
Confidence of Purchasing Managers (1/2)
Fig. 1 : Business confidence (Europe)
59,7
57,9
56,2
54,4
52,7
51,0
49,2
47,5
45,7
44,0
42,3
Eurozone - Manufacturing PMI
UK - Manufacturing PMI
08/2011 02/2012 08/2012 02/2013 08/2013 02/2014 08/2014
Fig. 2 : Business confidence (America)
58,6
57,2
55,7
54,3
52,8
51,3
49,9
48,4
47,0
45,5
44,0
US - Manufacturing ISM
Brazil - Manufacturing PMI
08/2011 02/2012 08/2012 02/2013 08/2013 02/2014 08/2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Markit, @TTStanton. Source : Oaks Field Partners, Institute for Supply Management, Markit, @TTStanton.
Significant deceleration in confidence indices. Only American purchaseing leaders see a sharp rebound in confidence and in
activity outlooks, with the long-term interest rates decline and the strong equity
market performance.
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 5

5. Prolog - World
Consumer Price Indices
Fig. 9 : Consumer price indices (Developped countries)
6,54
5,58
4,62
3,66
2,70
1,74
0,78
- 0,18
- 1,14
- 2,10
- 3,06
US- IPC YOY
Euro Zone - Inflation HICP
UK- IPC EU YOY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Bureau of Labor Statistics, European Central Bank, UK Office for
National Statistics, @TTStanton.
Fig. 10 : Consumer price indices (Emerging countries)
10,1
8,8
7,4
6,1
4,8
3,5
2,2
0,8
- 0,5
- 1,8
- 3,1
China - IPC YOY
Brazil - IPC YOY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, IBGE, National Bureau of Statistics, @TTStanton.
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 9

6. Euro Area analytics - UK and EMU
Table of contents
Business confidence 17
Credit to non-financial companies 19
Current account 20
Effective exchange rate 21
Equity marquet 13
Exchange rate 21
Harmonised inflation YoY 14
Household confidence 17
Household saving rate 19
Industrial production (IP) 16
Long-term money supply 18
Monthly fluctuations in employment 15
Public deficit (% of GDP) 22
Real estate 22
Retail sales in volume 16
Short and long-term interest rates 13
Short-term money supply 18
Trade balances 20
Unemployment rate 15
Wage trends 14
12 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

7. Euro Area analytics - UK and EMU
Inflation Wages growth rate
Fig. 15 : Harmonised inflation YoY
5,44
4,76
4,08
3,40
2,72
2,04
1,36
0,68
0,00
- 0,68
- 1,36
Germany - IPC YOY
UK- IPC EU YOY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fig. 16 : Wage trends
7,9
6,7
5,5
4,3
3,1
1,9
0,7
- 0,5
- 1,7
- 2,9
- 4,1
UK - Average Weekly Earnings YOY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
The decline in commodities prices contribute to the decline in inflation in Europe. Growth without inflation. England surprises for the non-reactivity of wages to
domestic growth.
Source : Oaks Field Partners, German Federal Statistical Office, UK Office for National Statistics,
@TTStanton.
Source : Oaks Field Partners, UK Office for National Statistics, @TTStanton.
14 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

8. Euro Area analytics - UK and EMU
Monthly change in payrolls Unemployment Rate
Fig. 17 : Monthly fluctuations in employment
168
139
109
80
50
21
- 9
- 38
- 68
- 97
- 126
Germany - Job creation and destruction MoM
France - Job Seekers Total Change MoM
UK - Jobs Creation/Destruction MoM
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Deutsche Bundesbank, French Labor Office, UK Office for National
Statistics, @TTStanton.
France remains in a significant worsening trend (+26 100 job seekers in July)1.
Fig. 18 : Unemployment rate
29,0
26,3
23,6
20,9
18,2
15,5
12,8
10,1
7,4
4,7
2,0
Germany - Unemployment Rate
France - Unemployment Rate
UK - Unemployment Rate
Spain - Unemployment Rate
Italy - Unemployment Rate
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Deutsche Bundesbank, Eurostat, INSEE National Statistics Office,
Istat (Institut national des statistiques italien) , ONS (Office for National Statistics), @TTStanton.
(1) http://travail-emploi.gouv.fr/etudes-recherches-statistiques-de,76/etudes-et-recherches,77/publications-dares,98/dares-analyses-dares-indicateurs,102/2014-065-demandeurs-d-emploi,17959.html
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 15

9. Euro Area analytics - UK and EMU
Trade Balance Current Account
Fig. 27 : Trade balances
22 379
18 800
15 221
11 641
8 062
4 483
903
-2 676
-6 255
-9 835
-13 414
Germany - Trade Balance
France - Trade Balance
UK - Trade Balance
Spain - Trade Balance
Italy - Trade Balance
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Bank of Spain, Deutsche Bundesbank, ISTAT, Ministry of the
Economy (France), UK Office for National Statistics, @TTStanton.
Fig. 28 : Current account
9,9
7,7
5,4
3,1
0,8
- 1,5
- 3,8
- 6,0
- 8,3
- 10,6
- 12,9
Germany - Current Account Balance
France - Current Account Balance
UK - Current Account Balance
Spain - Current Account Balance
Italy- Current Account Balance
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Source : Oaks Field Partners, German Federal Statistical Office, INE, INSEE National Statistics
Office, Istat (Institut national des statistiques italien) , ONS (Office for National Statistics),
@TTStanton.
20 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

10. Americas analytics - North and South America
Retail Sales Industrial Production
Fig. 39 : Retail sales
19,2
15,8
12,4
9,0
5,6
2,2
- 1,2
- 4,6
- 8,0
- 11,4
- 14,8
US - Retail Sales YOY
Canada - Retail Sales YOY
Mexico -Retail Sales YOY
Brazil - Retail Sales YOY
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Fig. 40 : Industrial production
23,5
19,0
14,5
10,0
5,5
1,0
- 3,5
- 8,0
- 12,5
- 17,0
- 21,5
US - IP Canada - IP
Mexico - IP Brazil - IP
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Brazil confirms its slowdown. Brazilian recession (Negative GDP on Q1 and Q2) will weigh heavily on general
elections results on 5th October, 2014.
Source : Oaks Field Partners, ANTAD, IBGE, STCA - Statistics Canada, U.S. Census Bureau,
@TTStanton.
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Federal Reserve, IBGE, INEGI, STCA - Statistics Canada, @TTStanton.
28 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

11. Comments on Financial Assets
Bond Markets
Fig. 73 : ECB interest rates and German interest rates
5,32
4,72
4,12
3,52
2,92
2,32
1,72
1,12
0,52
- 0,08
- 0,68
ECB - Refinancing rate
Germany - Rate 2 Year
Germany - Rate 10 Year
Fig. 74 : Main European interest rates
8,09
7,33
6,57
5,81
5,05
4,29
3,53
2,77
2,01
1,25
0,49
France - Rate 10 Year
Italy - Rate 10 Year
Spain - Rate 10 Year
Source : Oaks Field Partners, Bundesbank, European Central Bank, @TTStanton. Source : Oaks Field Partners, BGN, Banca d'Italia, Banque de France, @TTStanton.
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 49

12. Comments on Financial Assets
Energy - Crude Oil (Barrel) Gasoline per Gallon
Fig. 89 : Oil (WTI: Texas Brent: North Sea)
160
145
131
116
102
87
73
58
43
29
14
Crude Oil WTI Index
Brent Index
Fig. 90 : Oil and gas (USA)
159
145
131
118
104
90
76
62
48
34
20
Crude Oil WTI Index (L. Scale)
Gasoline - National average (R. Scale)
Source : Oaks Field Partners, ICE, NYM, @TTStanton. Source : Oaks Field Partners, American Automobile Association, NYM, @TTStanton.
Decline in global growth and high inventories take part in the decline in oil prices.
4,51
4,19
3,87
3,55
3,23
2,91
2,59
2,27
1,95
1,63
1,31
OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014 59

13. Performances of Main Asset Classes
Table of contents - Equity Markets
TS 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 2014 2 years Value
World
MSCI AC WORLD VALUE - 0,38% + 1,97% + 5,73% + 17,82% + 6,00% + 33,45% 204,79
Developped Markets
MSCI Daily Net TR World Euro + 2,22% + 6,05% + 10,73% + 21,22% + 12,17% + 35,07% 179,78
SP 500 Total Return + 1,52% + 4,68% + 8,84% + 25,25% + 10,32% + 48,28% 3643,3
Canada SP/TSX 60 Total Return Index + 1,05% + 8,14% + 12,05% + 27,19% + 16,94% + 38,91% 2188,8
Germany DAX Index - 1,80% - 4,76% - 2,29% + 16,87% - 1,24% + 35,08% 9470,2
France CAC 40 Total Return + 1,17% - 2,54% + 2,03% + 15,10% + 5,17% + 37,67% 10042
Italy FTSE MIB Net Total Return - 2,91% - 5,11% + 1,68% + 25,33% + 9,66% + 43,70% 30233
Spain IBEX 35 Net Return - 1,44% + 0,30% + 8,13% + 34,14% + 11,09% + 58,35% 22146
United Kingdom FTSE 100 Tot. Return + 1,13% + 0,67% + 2,44% + 10,13% + 3,85% + 27,65% 5110,8
Nikkei Total Return Index - 0,15% + 5,62% + 4,89% + 17,11% - 3,72% + 76,31% 22539
Australia SP/ASX 200 Net Tot Ret + 1,50% + 3,38% + 6,20% + 14,10% + 8,63% + 40,20% 46536
New Zealand Portfolio Index + 0,97% + 0,88% + 5,67% + 15,33% + 10,04% + 46,12% 3168,3
Emerging Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets + 3,07% + 10,85% + 20,07% + 20,11% + 16,31% + 14,06% 323,68
Bovespa + 6,00% + 19,61% + 30,14% + 22,55% + 19,55% + 6,83% 61288
Mexico IPC 35 Total Return + 2,80% + 10,31% + 17,65% + 15,56% + 6,72% + 14,33% 45628
Poland WIG 20 Total Return + 0,69% + 1,20% - 1,89% + 5,55% + 2,77% + 16,76% 3768,7
MICEX Index + 0,89% - 2,19% - 3,05% + 2,64% - 6,30% - 2,53% 1400,7
CSI 300 Total Return Index + 3,69% + 10,94% + 10,20% + 3,90% + 4,25% + 11,28% 2690,7
India National Stock Exchange + 2,28% + 10,80% + 27,87% + 47,21% + 27,25% + 54,13% 10457
Jakarta Composite Index + 0,94% + 4,96% + 11,18% + 22,45% + 21,93% + 25,50% 5136,9
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET + 1,73% + 10,48% + 18,97% + 22,22% + 21,51% + 33,38% 8646,1
62 OFP Monthly Economic Report - 08/31/2014

14. Next Month
Europe
Monthly ECB meeting, details on the ABS purchase plan, but no implementation in September (09/04).
France, announcements of the new government, what reforms will be waited for the beginning of September?
Geopolitical tensions development in Ukraine.
North and South America
Retail sales in August in the United States will be released on 09/12 in a falling oil price context.
Housing starts (new homes) in the USA on 09/18 will allow seeing the first effects of lower interest rates after the very good Architecture Billing Index.
In Brazil, the central bank meeting (COPOMon 09/03) will have to be followed in a cycle of easing credit conditions (lower RRR 07/28).
Asia Pacific
BoJ (Japan) meeting on September 4th an precisions from Shinzo Abe about the possibility to extend the Japanese bond purchase program.
Monetary dynamics in China (10-15 September), with government help to avoid a sudden growth deceleration.
Monetary policymeeting of the New Zealand central bank (maintenance or recovery rate hike cycle) (11th September).
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