- Foreclosures on main residences in Spain increased 37.4% in 2020 from the previous year, reaching the highest level since records began in 2014. Industrial production in January 2021 decreased 6.9% year-on-year, the largest decline since June 2020. - The OECD revised Spain's GDP growth forecasts upwards for 2021 to 5.7% from 5% previously, but growth will still be 1.5 percentage points lower than forecasted for other G20 countries. For 2022, Spain and Italy are expected to be the only economies with production levels still below pre-Covid crisis levels. - Germany's trade balance improved in January 2021 with exports growing 1.5% and imports falling

1. -40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2020
+109.9%
year-on-year
Foreclosures
In Q4 2020, foreclosures increased 109.9%
year-on-year to 3,018, maintaining the up-
ward trend which began in Q3 (+82% year-
on-year).
In 2020 as a whole, after 5 years of
consecutive decreases, foreclosures on main
residences increased 37.4%, reaching 7,367,
the biggest increase since records began in
2014.
Industrial production
In January 2021, industrial production
registered a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%,
its biggest fall since June 2020 (-10.1%
yearly). This sharp drop is related to the
decreases in non-durable consumer goods
(-12.2%) and capital goods (-11.2%),
although the production of consumer
durables (-8.8%) and intermediate goods
(-5.5%) also fell. Energy was the only sector
that increased production in January.
All the Autonomous Communities
registered industrial production decreases,
especially the Canary Islands (-15.5%),
Navarre (-15%), Castile-La Mancha (-10.5%)
and the Basque Country (-9.5%).
OECD forecasts for Spain
The OECD revised Spain’s GDP growth
forecasts upwards against a backdrop of
falling Covid-19 cases across the world, and
good progress on the vaccination program.
After suffering one of the biggest economic
contractions among advanced economies in
2020 (-11%), the organization forecasts
annual GDP growth of 5.7% for 2021
(compared to 5% in the previous forecast),
and 4.8% for 2022 (compared to 4%).
In spite of the improvement that is forecast
for 2021, the increase will be 1.5pp lower
than the forecast for G20 countries, and it is
expected that in 2022 Spain and Italy will be
the only two economies that maintain
production levels below those prior to the
Covid-19 crisis.
March 2021
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on INE, 2021.
Industrial Production Index
Year-on-year (%) change
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD, 2021.
OECD GDP growth forecasts
Year-on-year (%) change
Foreclosures on main residences
Number of foreclosures
Economy…
at a glance

2. ‘Economy at a glance’, a publication of the Círculo de Empresarios produced by its Department of the Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the
Círculo de Empresarios does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the Círculo de
Empresarios is not responsible for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
www.circulodeempresarios.org
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Imports Exports
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
May-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-19
Sep-19
Jan-20
May-20
Sep-20
Jan-21
PPI CPI
Trade balance, Germany
In January 2021, Germany’s goods trade
balance improved with a monthly upturn of
35.4%, to €22.2 billion in seasonally-and
working-day-adjusted terms. Exports grew
1.5%, reaching €108.8 billion, and imports
fell 4.7% (to €86.5 billion).
The fall in imports reflects a deterioration in
German consumption, hampered in part by
the health-related mobility restrictions. In
fact, in year-on-year terms, German imports
are 6.4% below the January 2020 levels.
Inflation, China
In February, China’s producer price index
(PPI) increased 1.7% yearly, exceeding ex-
pectations that had projected a 1.5% in-
crease. This upturn, due in part to the in-
flationary pressures of oil and the scarcity
of some products, could have a significant
impact on global chains of production as
producers pass the increase in prices onto
the finished goods.
For its part, the CPI stalled at -0.2% yearly,
maintaining the trend from previous
months.
GDP, Japan
The Japanese economy is recovering as the
number of Covid-19 cases decreases and
vaccinations increase. In Q4 2020, Japan’s
GDP increased 2.8% quarterly, a figure
below preliminary estimates that pointed to
a 3% increase.
Among the demand components, the
increase in capital investments and private
consumption stand out, with quarterly
increases of 4.3% and 2.2% respectively.
These figures are within the framework of a
period in which the state of emergency
affected two thirds of the prefectures in the
country, with a significant impact on
economic activity.
Within this context, the Japanese
government passed a new package of direct
assistance in December, with a total value of
$708 billion (equivalent to 14.2% of its
GDP).
0 0
-0.7
0.5 0.6 0.1 0.2
-1.8
-0.6
-8.3
5.3
2.8
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Q4
2019
Q1
2020
Q2
2020
Q3
2020
Q4
2020
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Destatis, 2021.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Cabinet Office of Japan, 2021.
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on National Bureau of Statistics, 2021.
Evolution of goods trade, Germany
Change compared to January 2020
Evolution of inflation, China
Year-on-year (%) change
GDP evolution, Japan
Quarterly (%) change