Presentation about lessons learned from Hydrogen and Fuel Cells for today's EV activities ... What are EV business models of the future?

1. Lessons learned from
hopes, hypes and
disappointment
Björn Budde
Scientist
AIT - Austrian Institute of Technology
Foresight & Policy Development Department
Research, Technology, Innovation Policy Unit

2. AIT - Austrian Institute of Technology
Austria’s largest applied research institute
Foresight & Policy Development
RTI- Policy
Innovation
and
Sustainability
Regional- and Technology
Infrastructure- Management
Policy

3. Hopes, hypes .... and disappointment?
Hypes occur frequently in the (automotive) sector!
Peak of Inflated Expectations
 electric vehicles
Expectations
 biofuels
 fuel cell vehicles
Plateau of  electric vehicles !?
Trough of
Disillusionment
Productivity  …. ?
Slope of
Technology Trigger Enlightenment
Time
Gartner (2009)
Figure 1 The Gartner hype cycle (Fenn and Raskino 2008).
Expectations are a major driving force for innovation activities
 Do we need “expectation management”?
 Is it possible to manage expectations?

4. Lessons learned: from hindsight to foresight
• Technology demanded to cope with societal challenges
EVs as solution to climate change, energy dependence, local air pollution, to sustain
competitiveness
• Technological breakthroughs / new „subtechnology”
Lithium – Ion batteries leaving behind old problems, can it solve all
problems?
• Attractive „real world“ prototypes and cars
e.g. Tesla Roadster
• (Construction of) global competition concerning technology
Competition from Japan, USA, China
• Demonstration projects and in the EV case deployment processes
as points of reference and to show commitment (e.g. Leaf, iMiEV etc.)
• Novelty of underlying knowledge to industry
Electrochemical knowledge not well known to automotive industry
 However, there are key differences:
 Deployment has started
 Infrastructure issues easier to solve?
 Other technological configurations: PHEV, …

5. Building blocks of a future vision for electric mobility
Climate Change, Energy Resources,
LANDSCAPE
Ageing Society, Globalization, …
level
SECTOR Mobility Energy others…
level (changing patterns … ) (Renewables, smart grids, …) (Smartphones, …)
TECHNOLOGICAL Fuel Cell Technology
Battery Technology HEV
level Mobile Stationary
Fuel Cell Technology Fuel Cell Technology Hydrogen Technology
PHEV

6. Market Vision and Positioning
My opinion… :
Which business models will drive growth in markets for electric vehicles and infrastructure?
Successful business models have to
 manage expectations among stakeholders (from partners, policy to customers)
 Products and services have to work from the beginning
 Need for extensive customer support
 develop strong institutions with a stable policy backup
 have a robust long term planning
 take into account future changes in the mobility sector
 car sharing, intermodality (smart combinations with public transport)
 be flexible and open to innovations in other sectors (ICT, lifestyle products, ...)
How can investments in EVs and infrastructure create new opportunities for economic growth?
Opportunities for economic growth and employment go far beyond the development
and production of EVs and infrastructure components
 enable learning at the local level!
 local adaptations to “global EV technology”
 development of complementary services (> 70% of GDP in service industries)
 mobility services, car sharing services, IT services, ...

7. Contact
Thank you!
Contact:
Björn Budde
AIT – Austrian Institute of Technology
Foresight & Policy Development Department
bjoern.budde@ait.ac.at