Artificial Intelligence for automotive: why you should care.
More information on that report at: https://www.i-micronews.com/produit/artificial-intelligence-computing-for-automotive-2019/
2. 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
o REPORT OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY 4
o EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12
1 – INTRODUCTION 35
2 – MARKET & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 51
o Autonomous cars
• Focus on ADAS
• Focus on Robotic vehicles
o Infotainment
• Focus on Gesture recognition
• Focus on Speech recognition
3 – MARKET FORECASTS 124
o Autonomous cars
• Total AI-related computing hardware market revenue per application
forecast 2018-2028
• Total AI-related computing hardware market revenue per level of
autonomy forecast 2018-2028
• ADAS & AD vehicles shipment forecast 2018-2028
• Average selling price assumptions of computing hardware for ADAS
vehicles
• ADAS computing hardware average selling price assumptions forecast
2018-2028
• Central computing for robotic vehicles average selling price forecast 2018-
2028
• Autonomous cars computing hardware market revenue in $M per level of
autonomy forecast 2018-2028
• Autonomous cars imaging-related computing hardware market revenue in
$M per level of autonomy forecast 2018-2028
• AI penetration rate for imaging and fusion computing
• Autonomous cars AI-related computing hardware market revenue in $M
per level of autonomy
• Autonomous cars imaging-related computing hardware market revenue in
$M per level of autonomy forecast 2018-2028
• AI penetration rate for imaging and fusion computing
• Autonomous cars AI-related computing hardware market revenue in $M
per level of autonomy
o Infotainment
• Average selling price assumptions of hardware & software
• Gesture and speech recognition revenues
• Gesture recognition penetration rate per level of autonomy
• Speech recognition penetration rate per level of autonomy
4 – ECOSYSTEMS 141
o Autonomous cars
o Infotainment
5 – INVESTMENTS 182
6 – ALGORITHMS REVIEW 187
o AI algorithms for imaging
o AI algorithms for audio
7 – CONCLUSIONS 206
6. 6
WHO SHOULD BE INTERESTED IN THIS REPORT?
IC manufacturers and vendors, and IP sellers:
o Evaluate the market potential of future technologies
and products for new applicative markets
o Screen potential new suppliers for introducing new
disruptive technologies
o Monitor and benchmark your competitors’
advancements
Sensors and AI-related companies:
o Spot new technologies and define diversification
strategies
o Position your company in the ecosystem
Technology suppliers:
o Understand the strategies of big players and start-
ups
Equipment and materials manufacturers:
o Comprehend ecosystem dynamics
o Realize the differentiated value of your products and
technologies in this market
o Identify new business opportunities and prospects
Tier1 and OEMs:
o Analyze the benefits of using these new technologies in
your end-system
o Filter and select new suppliers
Financial and strategic investors:
o Grasp the potential of technologies and markets
o Acquaint yourself with key emerging companies and
start-ups
25. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is slowly but surely
invading more and more markets, and thus the daily
movements of each one. Yole Développement's
(Yole) AI Computing for Automotive 2019 report
describes AI’s impact on the automotive ecosystem
through autonomous cars and infotainment
applications/systems.
On the autonomy side, two trends are moving in
parallel: on one hand, the classic Original Equipment
Manufacturers with the addition of functionalities
(including deep learning algorithms for object
recognition) that facilitate an increase in advanced
driver-assistance systems (ADAS) levels; and on
the other hand, startups and tech giants offering
services based on robotic vehicles, i.e. shuttles
and robo-taxis. These different applications and
systems have rapidly surrounded themselves with
rich, diversified ecosystems, particularly in terms
of sensors and computing. In the ADAS ecosystem,
we find classic OEMs like GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW,
Audi, and Mercedes, and new players such as Tesla
and Nio. On the robotic vehicles side, tech giants
including Google (Waymo), Uber, Yantex, Baidu,
and Apple will offer the first robo-taxi services in
targeted cities this year, surrounded by startups
that also offer Maas (Mobility-as-a-service).
Regarding robotic shuttle, bus, and commercial
vehicle, we find an array of startups such as Navya,
EasyMile, and Drive.ai offering transport services
for people or goods in closed environments and
at low-speed. Tier-1s like Continental are also
investing in this promising market. Regarding the
usual automotive market, we could expect the
first level 2+ and level 3 ADAS cars (with AI-based
autonomy) to arrive this year.
Computing has also grown enormously around
majorplayerslikeIntelanditsMobileyeproduct,and
NVIDIA with its Xavier GPU, which now includes
units designed specifically for the calculation of
deep-learning algorithms. Other solutions offered
in dedicated products from Renesas, Xilinx, and
Kalray also show much potential. The segmentation
by activity - Focus on USA illustration describes
these players’ landscape and activity.
AI enters the fray with speech and gesture-
recognition technologies. Smart-home giants Google
and Amazon are now in cars with their well-known
speech recognition solutions "Ok, Google!” and
“Alexa”, respectively. And Google goes even further
by integrating its Android operating system. In terms
of gesture recognition, Sony Softkinetic plays a central
role with OEMs in developing these solutions.
On the computing side, the players are not much
different from those in autonomous driving,
because it is necessary to develop powerful,
power-consuming, adapted solutions for these
specific application types.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COMPUTING FOR AUTOMOTIVE
Market & Technology report - February 2019
Artificial Intelligence for automotive: why you should care.
KEY FEATURES
• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
technologies used in automotive
• Cloud computing and edge
computing for AI
• Types of hardware for advanced
driver-assistance systems (ADAS),
robotic vehicles, and infotainment
• Ecosystems, market forecast, and
trends
• AI software design and players’
strategies
OBJECTIVES OF THE REPORT
• Provide a scenario for AI within
the dynamics of the autonomous
automotive market, and
understand AI’s impact on the
semiconductor industry:
- Hardware for AI - Revenue
forecast, volume shipments
forecast
- Systems - Applications service
providers forecast, revenue
forecast, volume shipments
forecast
- Focus on autonomous automotive
• Offer an in-depth understanding of
the ecosystem and players:
- Who are the players? What
are the relationships inside this
ecosystem? Who will win the
“autonomous battle”?
- Who are the key suppliers to
watch, and what technologies do
they provide?
• Deliver key technical insight
analysis regarding future
technology trends and challenges:
- Key technology choices
- Technology dynamics
- Emerging technologies and
roadmaps
(Yole Développement, February 2019)
THE EXPECTED REVOLUTION
In 2018, only robotic vehicles could claim to
possess in-car AI. The associated computing
market, driven by computers equivalent to what
is found in datacenters and associated with rather
low volumes, brought the computing market to
$156M in 2018. Over the next 10 years, with
the development of robo-taxis and shuttles, this
market will remain the main revenue generator
for AI in automotive, with $9B in total computing
revenue expected in 2028.
Segmentation by activity* - Focus on USA**
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SHORTENS THE PATH TO AUTONOMY AND
BRINGS THE HOME INTO THE CAR
VP***/Fusion
FPGA
IP
Algorithms
Hardware
Software
* Non-exhaustive list of companies - ** All main geographic areas are presented in the report - *** VP= Vision Processor
26. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE COMPUTING FOR AUTOMOTIVE 2019
Value chain interactions*
(Yole Développement, February 2019)
WHERE ARE WE TODAY, AND WHERE ARE WE GOING?
The stakes are high: the first company to be on the
road with a mature technology in terms of security,
autonomy, and service features will inevitably take
the bulk of the market. Today, Google Waymo has
a considerable lead technologically and at the service
level – its first cars are already on the road, and a
handful of users are already enjoying its services. On
the ADAS side, Audi launches its first level 3 this year
(the 2019 Audi A8), while behind Audi the majority
of OEMs are offering level 2+ features and planning
to release their high-end Level 3 models this year
and next. For security and marketing reasons, some
OEMs, i.e. Ford, Volvo, and Toyota, have decided to
attack directly Level 4 skipping Level 3, with results
expected around 2025.
Specific to infotainment, there are only a few players
right now. Sony Softkinetic leads the pack for gesture
recognition, and Google, with its vast experience,
In 2019, the first cars qualified as “ADAS level 3” will
hit the road, and AI will enter ADAS level 2 cars,
replacing conventional computer-vision algorithms.
Yole expects a $63M computing market for ADAS in
2019, reaching almost $3.7B in 2028. For infotainment,
AI is already present in high-end BMW, Volvo, and
Mercedes models as an option involving relatively
low volumes. Also, embedded in-car computing
remains quite inexpensive because the computing is
done in the Cloud. However, as for the smart-home
market, there is a willingness to bring intelligence to
the Edge, implying the need to create powerful, more
expensive computing. Yole foresees a fairly strong
increase in infotainment computing revenue, rising
from $18M in 2018 to $768M in 2028.
All AI-related computing is literally exploding, with
total expected 2028 revenue increasing to almost
$14B at a 50% CAGR2018-2028.
2018-2028 revenues breakdown per market
(Yole Développement, February 2019)
Artificial
Intelligence
software
Hardware
Sensors
Data
treatment
analysis
Tier 1s
OEMs Service providers
*Non-exhaustive list of companies
$18.5M
*CAGR2018-2028
+49%
2018
$174M
2028
$13 800M
$9 400M
*CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
$155M
$0
$3 700M
$770 M
Robotic vehicles
Infotainment
Advanced driver-assistance
systems (ADAS) vehicles
27. MARKET TECHNOLOGY REPORT
COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT (non exhaustive list)
Alphabet, Algolux, Amazon, AMD, Apple, ARM, Baidu, Bosch, BMW, Continental, Delphi,
Eyesight Faurecia, Ford, General Motors, Google, Infineon, Intel, Intel Mobileye, Kalray, Lyft,
Melexis, Mercedes-Benz, Microship, Microsoft, Nio, Nissan, Nuance, NVIDIA, NXP, Parrot, PSA,
Qualcomm, Renesas, Samsung, Sony Softkinetic, STMicroelectronics, Tesla, Texas Instruments,
Toshiba, Toyota, Uber, Valeo, Videantis, Volkswagen, Volvo, Waymo, Xilinx, and many more...
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details about
this report here:
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leverages its innovative technologies in the
speech recognition segment.
On the computing side, two giants appear to be
leading the race: Intel Mobileye for the ADAS
market, and NVIDIA for the robotic vehicles
market. These companies’ solutions are powerful
and they also offer extremely powerful software
and software stacks dedicated to processing AI
and computer vision algorithms and adapted to
the automotive ecosystem. However, thanks to
a slower cycle in the automotive world, other
competitors like Renesas and Xilinx are close
behind.
The value chain interactions figure shows
these players’ position in the value chain, their
leadership, and their relationships.
The autonomous driving revolution is fast-paced
and road-worthy, but also full of obstacles. The
stakes are huge, with the prize being access to a
market in the tens of billions of dollars. AI and its
associated computing fields will play the crucial
role of catalyst for companies wishing to access
this market.
When all is said and done, will Sony, Intel, and
Mobileye still lead? Are expectations reasonable?
And most importantly, what does the future hold
for AI in automotive?
• Hardware Software for AI 2018 – Consumer
focus
• From Image Processing to Deep Learning,
Introduction to Hardware and Software 2017
• Sensors for Robotics Vehicles 2018
Find all our reports on www.i-micronews.com
Dr. Yohann Tschudi
is a member of the
Semiconductor and
Software division at Yole Développement
(Yole). As a Software and Market Analyst,
Yohann works with his team to identify,
understand, and analyze the role of
software and computing parts within any
semiconductor product - from the machine
code to the highest level of algorithms.
Upon completing his thesis at CERN in
Geneva, Switzerland, Yohann developed
dedicated software for fluid mechanics and
thermodynamics applications. Afterwards,
he worked at the University of Miami
(Florida, United States) for two years as
an AI scientist. Yohann has a PhD in High-
Energy Physics and a master’s degree in
Physical Sciences from Claude Bernard
University in Lyon, France.
AUTHORS
Lauranne Chemisky
is a Technology and
Market Analyst for Yole
Développement’s Semiconductor and
Software team. Lauranne develops market
research reports and customized services
for Yole’s clients, leveraging her technology
training and experience in the fields of
materials and semiconductor manufacturing
processes for advanced packaging
applications. Previously, Lauranne worked
as a Material Development Engineer on the
Softgoods Product Design Team at Apple
(CA, USA). She holds a master’s degree in
Materials Science and Polymers from ITECH
and an M.Sc. in Technology and Innovation
Management from EMLyon Business School,
both in Lyon, France.
Report objectives methodology 4
Executive summary 12
Introduction 35
Market technology trends 51
Autonomous cars
- Focus on ADAS
- Focus on robotic vehicles
Infotainment
- Focus on gesture recognition
- Focus on speech recognition
Market forecasts 124
Autonomous cars
- Total AI-related computing hardware market
revenue, per application: 2018 - 2028 forecast
- Total AI-related computing hardware market
revenue, per autonomy level: 2018 - 2028
forecast
- ADAS AD vehicle shipments: 2018 - 2028
forecast
- Average selling price assumptions for
computing hardware in ADAS vehicles
- ADAS computing hardware: average selling
price assumptions, 2018 - 2028 forecast
- Central computing for robotic vehicles:
average selling price, 2018 - 2028 forecast
- Autonomous cars computing hardware
market: revenue in $M, per level of autonomy
- 2018 - 2028 forecast
- Autonomous cars imaging-related computing
hardware market: revenue in $M, per level of
autonomy - 2018 - 2028 forecast
- AI penetration rate for imaging and fusion
computing
- Autonomous cars AI-related computing
hardware market: revenue in $M, per level of
autonomy
- Autonomous cars imaging-related computing
hardware market: revenue in $M, per level of
autonomy - 2018 - 2028 forecast
- AI penetration rate for imaging and fusion
computing
- Autonomous cars AI-related computing
hardware market: revenue in $M, per level of
autonomy
Infotainment
- Average selling price assumptions for
hardware and software
- Gesture and speech-recognition revenue
- Gesture-recognition penetration rate, per
autonomy level
- Speech-recognition penetration rate, per
autonomy level
Ecosystems 141
Autonomous cars
Infotainment
Investments 182
Algorithms review 187
AI algorithms for imaging
AI algorithms for audio
Conclusions 206
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