The document summarizes the state of the UK's EU referendum vote which will take place on June 23rd. Current polling shows the vote is neck and neck between remaining or leaving the EU. The referendum has divided the UK and will have significant short and long term consequences. If the UK votes to remain, Euroscepticism will still remain an issue and the EU will continue struggling to be competitive globally. If the UK votes to leave, it will trigger economic uncertainty and a lengthy withdrawal process from the EU. The outcome could impact other EU member states as well.

1. 11
EU
Referendum
19th April 2016

2. Should the United Kingdom
remain a member of the European Union
or leave the European Union?

3. • Referendum after decades of division
• EU debate brought down Margaret Thatcher, wounded John Major
• Euroscepticism on the rise since 2008
• The result will define the future of David Cameron, Conservatives
and UK
65days to go
Background

5. Source: What UK Thinks Source: YouGov/Times
Current Polling – Neck and Neck

6. Male Female
40%
41%
19%
40%
36%
24%
Source: YouGov/Times
Current Polling - Gender

7. Vote by region
Current Polling - Regions
Remain Leave

8. 32%
51%
17%
62%
22%
16%
64%
23%
13%
Current Polling - Party
90%
7% 3%
Source: YouGov/Times polling

9. Current Polling - Age

10. Sir Lynton Crosby:
“the outcome of the referendum will hinge on which
side can better turnout their supporters rather than
which side can better persuade the small number of
voters not locked into supporting either side”
70% of Leave voters are certain to vote
versus
61% of Remain supporters certain to vote
Turnout

11. • Campaign officially underway
• Conservative Party increasingly
divided
• Labour Party have weak leadership
• ‘’Events’’ risk vote to leave
• Public showing lack of engagement
The state of play

12. The Prime Minister negotiated a package of reforms
National
Parliaments
are given a ‘Red
Card’ to veto EU
legislation
Financial
protections
are granted to
the City and to
non-Eurozone
states
Regulation
and Red Tape
will be cut in
favor of a more
competitive
approach
Ever Closer
Union
is accepted
to be unsuitable
for Britain
An Emergency
Brake
can be placed
on welfare of
immigrants for
up to 7 years
What’s on Offer

14. Media Hysteria

15. Remain Campaign

16. Remain Messaging

17. Leave Campaign

18. Leave Messaging

19. Remain Leave
Economy
Immigration
Sovereignty
Security
Key Arguments
Prioritise trade and
investment with the EU
Single Market
Want trade deals with
emerging markets,
maintaining access to
Single Market
Free movement of
labour is vital to growth
and productivity
Criticise strain on public
services, argue for
points-based policy
Sovereignty is
enhanced by pooling
with neighbours
Sovereignty lost to
unelected, undemocratic
EU
Security and solidarity
through working with
allies
NATO is center of European
security, and argue EU makes
us less secure

20. If the UK Votes to Leave …

21. The process of withdrawing from the EU
Article 50
• Article 50 of the Treaty of the
European Union outlines the two
year withdrawal process for a
member state
• Article 50 has never been tested,
and any extension must be agreed
unanimously at the EU Council
• If there is no deal after 2 years,
member states must unanimously
agree to an extension

22. If the UK votes to leave: short-term
Implications for the UK Implications for the EU
David Cameron forced
to resign, Boris Johnson
frontrunner to replace
Implications for UK
Presidency of EU
Council, Q3 & Q4 2017
Second Scottish
Independence
Referendum
Cabinet Office and
Foreign Office estimate
‘decade of uncertainty’

23. Implications for the UK Implications for the EU
More referenda & possible exits,
(Sweden, NL)
Less counter-balance to German
domination, Southern Europe
protectionism
Financial services affected, possible loss
of Pass-porting rights
Russia would increase influence on
European continent
Impact on investment in manufacturing and
industry
Pivot to Asia, Africa, Commonwealth
Economic Uncertainty Implications for global politics
Bank of England preparing stimulus to keep
economy stable
Rationale for UK-China Golden Age is
threatened, status as preferred partner is
undermined
If the UK votes to leave: long-term

24. Brexit Bandwagon

25. Alternative models
What would the UK look like outside the EU?
• Canada has negotiated the CETA trade deal with the EU
• Must obey EU rules and quotas with no say in their creation
• Switzerland has a comprehensive trade deal with the EU
• Contributes to EU budget, complies with EU regulation
accepts free movement of people
• Norway trades freely as part of EFTA
• Pays over €650 million annually to the EU budget, complies
with regulations

26. The WTO option
• British trade with EU would revert
to WTO rules unless a new treaty is
agreed
• A range of tariffs would be applied
to British goods.

27. If the UK Votes to Stay …

28. If the UK votes to stay
Implications for the EU Implications for the UK Long term consequences
British renegotiation
implemented, 2-speed EU
officially recognized
Margin of victory will matter Euroscepticism will not go away
EU focus returns to growth,
refugees, Russia
Surge in pound as investor
confidence returns
German Federal Elections in
2017 could see a new de facto
leader of the EU
TTIP to be negotiated before
President Obama leaves office
Conservative leadership
contest – David Cameron to
leave before 2020
EU will struggle to remain
competitive on global stage
compared
How people voted will remain a
‘badge of honour’ in British
Politics

29. Conclusion

30. Predictions
Remain is likely to win
Turnout will be key
‘Project fear’ right up until polling day
Events could change everything

32. 3232
Thank You
18th April 2016