Bond portfolio management

A Project Report on :
"Bond Portfolio Management"

2011-2012
Submitted for the partial fulfillment of

“Master of Business Administration” (MBA)

of Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, Bhopal

Submitted To Submitted By
Smt. Roli Pradhan Ankit Michael Samuel
Management Department 3rd Sem MBA,MANIT
MANIT BHOPAL(M.P)

Bond Portfolio Management Finance Assignment

Table of Contents

 Preface................................................................................................................
 Acknowledgement............................................................................................
 Certificate................................................................................................................

1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................
2. Background Review..........................................................................................
3. Research Design..........................................................................................
4. Data Collection..........................................................................................
5. Data Analysis..........................................................................................
6. Data Interpretation..........................................................................................
7. Finding And Conclusion..........................................................................................
8. Bibliography ................................................................................................................
9. Power Point Presentation.....................................................................................................

Samuel, A.M ( NIT Bhopal Alumni ) Page 2
Email: ankit.samuel84@gmail.com
Linkedin: http://in.linkedin.com/in/ankitsamuel
Facebook: http://facebook.com/ankit.m.samuel


Preface

This is a study and research based analytical project assignment. The main motive of the
project is to determine the relatedness of the parameters and the dependence of one over the
other. The Trend followed by the bond of the company within a period of time and determining
its trend and co -relatedness and the dependence.

Focusing mainly on the analysis and trend analysis of the a certain company and performing
the correlation and regression tests and results of the tests are helping in depicting the trend
and evaluating the results of the objective.



Acknowledgement

I thank my guide Mrs. Roli pradhan for her prompt responses and the value added guidance
that she provided from time to time, that was very crucial and has immense effect in deriving
the objective and deciding the crux of the project.

I feel a good and devoted guidance is must for better learning and innovative thinking. Thanks
for being my guide and supporting m in achieving my targets and objectives.

How can i forget the support that i gained from my friends and family who helped me nourish
and grow and train myself and achieve my targets ... Thanks a lot all my well wishers...
Thanks..



Certificate

This is to certify that Ankit Michael Samuel of Maulana Azad National Institute of
Techonology of Management Department has made a project report on "Bond Portfolio
Management". And did his research and analysis under the guidance of Mrs. Roli Pradhan and
successfully completed his research project assignment.

Attested By:

Ankit Michael Samuel - 102103107 (MBA- 3rd Sem Finance)



Introduction
In finance, a bond is a debt security, in which the authorized issuer owes the holders a debt and,
depending on the terms of the bond, is obliged to pay interest (the coupon) to use and/or to
repay the principal at a later date, termed maturity. A bond is a formal contract to repay
borrowed money with interest at fixed intervals.

Thus a bond is like a loan: the holder of the bond is the lender (creditor), the issuer of the bond is
the borrower (debtor), and the coupon is the interest. Bonds provide the borrower with external
funds to finance long-term investments, or, in the case of government bonds, to finance current
expenditure. Certificates of deposit (CDs) or commercial paper are considered to be money
market instruments and not bonds.

Bonds and stocks are both securities, but the major difference between the two is that (capital)
stockholders have an equity stake in the company (i.e., they are owners), whereas bondholders
have a creditor stake in the company (i.e., they are lenders). Another difference is that bonds
usually have a defined term, or maturity, after which the bond is redeemed, whereas stocks may
be outstanding indefinitely. An exception is a consol bond, which is a perpetuity (i.e., bond with
no maturity).

Corporate Bonds:

A corporate bond is a bond issued by a corporation. It is a bond that a corporation issues to
raise money in order to expand its business.[1] The term is usually applied to longer-term debt
instruments, generally with a maturity date falling at least a year after their issue date. (The
term "commercial paper" is sometimes used for instruments with a shorter maturity.)

Sometimes, the term "corporate bonds" is used to include all bonds except those issued by
governments in their own currencies. Strictly speaking, however, it only applies to those issued
by corporations. The bonds of local authorities and supranational organizations do not fit in
either category.

Corporate bonds are often listed on major exchanges (bonds there are called "listed" bonds) and
ECNs like Bonds.com and MarketAxess, and the coupon (i.e. interest payment) is usually
taxable. Sometimes this coupon can be zero with a high redemption value. However, despite
being listed on exchanges, the vast majority of trading volume in corporate bonds in most
developed markets takes place in decentralized, dealer-based, over-the-counter markets.

Some corporate bonds have an embedded call option that allows the issuer to redeem the debt
before its maturity date. Other bonds, known as convertible bonds, allow investors to convert
the bond into equity.



Corporate Credit spreads may alternatively be earned in exchange for default risk through the
mechanism of Credit Default Swaps which give an unfunded synthetic exposure to similar risks
on the same 'Reference Entities'. However, owing to quite volatile CDS 'basis' the spreads on
CDS and the credit spreads on corporate bonds can be significantly different.

Government bond

It is a bond issued by a national government denominated in the country's own currency.
Bonds are debt investments whereby an investor loans a certain amount of money, for a certain
amount of time, with a certain interest rate, to a company or country. Bonds issued by national
governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The first ever
government bond was issued by the English government in 1693 to raise money to fund a war
against France. It was in the form of a tontine.

The most important features of a bond are:

 nominal, principal or face amount — the amount on which the issuer pays interest, and
which, most commonly, has to be repaid at the end of the term. Some structured bonds can
have a redemption amount which is different from the face amount and can be linked to
performance of particular assets such as a stock or commodity index, foreign exchange rate
or a fund. This can result in an investor receiving less or more than his original investment
at maturity.
 issue price — the price at which investors buy the bonds when they are first issued, which
will typically be approximately equal to the nominal amount. The net proceeds that the
issuer receives are thus the issue price, less issuance fees.
 maturity date — the date on which the issuer has to repay the nominal amount. As long as
all payments have been made, the issuer has no more obligation to the bond holders after
the maturity date. The length of time until the maturity date is often referred to as the term
or tenor or maturity of a bond. The maturity can be any length of time, although debt
securities with a term of less than one year are generally designated money market
instruments rather than bonds. Most bonds have a term of up to thirty years. Some bonds
have been issued with maturities of up to one hundred years, and some do not mature at all.
In the market for U.S. Treasury securities, there are three groups of bond maturities:
o short term (bills): maturities between one to five year; (instruments with maturities less
than one year are called Money Market Instruments)
o medium term (notes): maturities between six to twelve years;
o long term (bonds): maturities greater than twelve years.
 coupon — the interest rate that the issuer pays to the bond holders. Usually this rate is
fixed throughout the life of the bond. It can also vary with a money market index, such as
LIBOR, or it can be even more exotic. The name coupon originates from the fact that in the
past, physical bonds were issued which had coupons attached to them. On coupon dates the
bond holder would give the coupon to a bank in exchange for the interest payment.

Note: The interest rate that the issuer of a bond must pay is influenced by a variety of factors,
such as current market interest rates, the length of the term and the creditworthiness of the
issuer.


Bond Market

The bond market (also known as the credit, or fixed income market) is a financial market
where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually in the form of bonds. As of 2009, the
size of the worldwide bond market (total debt outstanding) is an estimated $82.2 trillion, of
which the size of the outstanding U.S. bond market debt was $31.2 trillion according to BIS (or
alternatively $34.3 trillion according to SIFMA).

Nearly all of the $822 billion average daily trading volume in the U.S. bond market takes place
between broker-dealers and large institutions in a decentralized, over-the-counter (OTC)
market. However, a small number of bonds, primarily corporate, are listed on exchanges.

References to the "bond market" usually refer to the government bond market, because of its
size, liquidity, lack of credit risk and, therefore, sensitivity to interest rates. Because of the
inverse relationship between bond valuation and interest rates, the bond market is often used to
indicate changes in interest rates or the shape of the yield curve.

Types of bond markets

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) classifies the broader
bond market into five specific bond markets.

 Corporate
 Government & agency
 Municipal
 Mortgage backed, asset backed, and collateralized debt obligation
 Funding

Bond market volatility

For market participants who own a bond, collect the coupon and hold it to maturity, market
volatility is irrelevant; principal and interest are received according to a pre-determined
schedule.

But participants who buy and sell bonds before maturity are exposed to many risks, most
importantly changes in interest rates. When interest rates increase, the value of existing bonds
falls, since new issues pay a higher yield. Likewise, when interest rates decrease, the value of
existing bonds rises, since new issues pay a lower yield. This is the fundamental concept of
bond market volatility: changes in bond prices are inverse to changes in interest rates.
Fluctuating interest rates are part of a country's monetary policy and bond market volatility is
a response to expected monetary policy and economic changes.

Economists' views of economic indicators versus actual released data contribute to market
volatility. A tight consensus is generally reflected in bond prices and there is little price
movement in the market after the release of "in-line" data. If the economic release differs from
the consensus view the market usually undergoes rapid price movement as participants


interpret the data. Uncertainty (as measured by a wide consensus) generally brings more
volatility before and after an economic release. Economic releases vary in importance and
impact depending on where the economy is in the business cycle.

Bond market index

A bond market index is a composite listing of bonds or fixed income instruments and a statistic
reflecting the composite value of its components. It is used as a tool in the portfolio
management process to represent the aggregate characteristics of the underlying securities.

Bond Market Analysis

Bond Market Analysis provides help to the investors to plan out their investing policy before
making any major investment. The Bond Market Analysis also helps people to get themselves
aware about the market and also try to show them the way they would move. Bond Market
Analysis mainly depends on the bond's performances in particular and the index also helps it
generally.
Bond Market Index plays a major role while the Bond Market Analysis is on. It actually gives
the overall scenario of the market and shows whether the market is running on a high or
slowing down considerably. So it is important to conduct Bond Market Analysis before
entering bond market to save oneself from facing losses.

What are Corporate Bonds?

A corporate bond is a bond issued by major corporations and can be divided into five major
groups: industrials, transportations, utilities, banks and other finance companies, and finally
international. Bonds issued from the industrial sector would include manufacturing, mining,
and retail oriented companies. Transportation bonds would then be issued by airlines, trucking
companies, and even railroads. Utilities would include companies which would fall into the
following groups; water, electric, and telephone. International bonds would be issued by foreign
entities such as foreign countries, municipalities, and agencies.



Background Review
Considering TCS as the company of choice for analysis of bond. Lets gather some information
about the TCS.

Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS) (BSE: 532540, NSE: TCS) is an Indian IT
services, business solutions and outsourcing company headquartered in Mumbai, India. It is the
largest provider of information technology in Asia and second largest provider of business
process outsourcing services in India.[2][3] TCS has offices in over 42 countries with more than
145 branches across the globe and is a subsidiary of textiles and manufacturing conglomerate
Tata Group.

History

It began as the "Tata Computer Centre",
for the company Tata Group whose main
business was to provide computer services
to other group companies. F C Kohli was
the first general manager. J. R. D. Tata was
the first chairman, followed by Pankaj Roy.

One of TCS' first assignments was to
provide punched card services to a sister
concern, Tata Steel (then TISCO). It later
bagged the country's first software project,
the Inter-Branch Reconciliation System
(IBRS) for the Central Bank of India.[4] It
also provided bureau services to Unit
Trust of India, thus becoming one of the
first companies to offer BPO services.

In the early 1970s, Tata Consultancy
Services began exporting its services. The
company pioneered the global delivery
model for IT services with its first offshore
client in 1974. TCS's first international
order came from Burroughs, one of the
first business computer manufacturers.
TCS was assigned to write code for the
Burroughs machines for several US-based
clients.[5] This experience also helped TCS
bag its first onsite project - the
Institutional Group & Information
Company (IGIC), a data centre for ten


banks, which catered to two million
customers in the US, assigned TCS the
task of maintaining and upgrading its
computer systems.[5]

History

Bombay House, the head office of Tata Group

In 1981, TCS set up India's first software research and development centre, the Tata Research
Development and Design Center (TRDDC) in Pune.[6] The first client-dedicated offshore
development center was set up for Compaq (then Tandem) in 1985.

In 1979, TCS delivered an electronic depository and trading system called SECOM for SIS
SegaInterSettle, Switzerland. It was by far the most complex project undertaken by an Indian
IT company. TCS followed this up with System X for the Canadian Depository System and
also automated the Johannesburg Stock (JSE).[7] TCS associated with a Swiss partner, TKS
Teknosoft, which it later acquired.[8]

In the early 1990s, the Indian IT outsourcing industry grew tremendously due to the Y2K bug
and the launch of a unified European currency, Euro. TCS pioneered the factory model for Y2K



conversion and developed software tools which automated the conversion process and enabled
third-party developers and clients to make use of it.[9]

In 1999, TCS saw outsourcing opportunity in E-Commerce and related solutions and set up its
E-Business division with ten people. By 2004, E-Business was contributing half a billion dollars
(US) to TCS.[10]

On 9 August 2004, TCS became a publicly listed company,[11] much later than its rivals,
Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam.

During 2005, TCS ventured into a new area for an Indian IT services company -
Bioinformatics.[12]

In 2008, the company went through an internal restructuring exercise that executives claim
would bring about agility to the organization.[13]

In 2011, the company entered the Small and medium enterprises (SME) market with cloud-
based offerings.[14]

Operations & Acquisitions

Tata Consultancy Services campus at Lucknow, India



Tata Consultancy Services at Madhapur, Hyderabad

Indian branches

TCS had development centres and/or regional offices in the following Indian cities:
Ahmedabad, Baroda, Bangalore, Bhubaneswar, Chennai, Coimbatore, Goa, Gurgaon, Guwahati,
Kochi, Madurai, Kolkata, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mangalore, Noida, Pune, Thiruvananthapuram,
Jaipur, Jalandhar, New Delhi, Jamshedpur, Hyderabad, now in Indore in 2012[15][16]

Global units

Africa: South Africa, Morocco[17]

Asia (Outside India): Bahrain, Beijing,[18] Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Indonesia, Israel,
Japan, Malaysia, Philippines,[19] Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, UAE
()[20]

Australia: Australia

Europe: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom

North America: Canada, Mexico, USA

South America: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, Peru[21]

Innovation and R&D

Tata Research Development and Design Center

TCS established the first software research center in India, the Tata Research Development
and Design Center, in Pune, India in 1981. TRDDC undertakes research in Software
engineering, Process engineering and Systems Research.

Researchers at TRDDC also developed Master-Craft (now called TCS Code Generator
Framework [22]) a Model Driven Development software that can automatically create code
based on a model of a software, and rewrite the code based on the user's needs.[23]

Research at TRDDC has also resulted in the development of Sujal, a low-cost water purifier
that can be manufactured using locally available resources. TCS deployed thousands of these
filters in the Indian Ocean Tsunami disaster of 2004 as part of its relief activities.[24] This
product has been marketed in India as Tata swach, a low cost water purifier.[25]



List of acquisitions

The table below gives some details of TCS' key acquisitions



TCS BPO

TCS BPO is the second leading player in the outsourcing industry in India behind Genpact
according to Dataquest survey in August 2011.[36] TCS's BPO arm had revenues of $925
million in the year that ended in March, and 34,000 employees[37] Other than major Indian
cities, TCS BPO is also present in Tier-II locations like Kolkata and Pune. TCS is also
expanding its BPO centre in Kolkata, where it already employs 2,000 people.[38] Tata
Consultancy Services has opened a business process outsourcing facility in the Philippines
following the path of India-based BPO companies which have operations in that country.[39]

US Visa Program

TCS was the fourth largest visa recipient in 2008, preceded by Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra
Satyam.[40]

Recent news and developments in TCS

Tata Consultancy Services has managed to receive ten large deals.[41]TCS is planning to hire
60,000 Employees in Financial year 2011-2012 [42] TCS has got contract from Credit Union
Australia.[43] Country's largest software firm Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has received a
multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to provide application support, maintenance and
development services from US-based Air Liquide.[44] TCS is going to open its first office in
Madhya Pradesh in Indore worth Rs.1000 crores. The 100 acre project, expected to be
operational by 2013, will employ more than 25000 people directly and equal number indirectly.
This project is the first and the biggest IT project of the state and would play a vital role in the
development of Indore.[45]

Employees

TCS is one of the largest private sector employers in India with a core strength 202,039
individuals.[46] TCS has turned into the second-largest employer among listed companies after
Coal India Limited.But the biggest employer in the country is Indian Railways with 16 lakhs
employees.[47] TCS has one of the lowest attrition rates in the Indian IT industry.[48] In the
past and in the present, TCS has been criticised by its employees in Public forums on its
Appraisal and Promotion policies.[49]

TCS Journey in a book

A book titled The TCS Story... and Beyond published by the Penguin Group,was authored by
S Ramadorai, now TCS’s Vice-chairman and launched in September 2011.The book covers the
43 years journey of TCS.[50]

Recognition

As a brand, TCS is the 76th Most Trusted Brand according to The Brand Trust Report, 2011.



Research Design



Data Collection



Data Analysis

Y/E Sales 2 yearly Deviation of Square PAT 2 Deviation Square x 1y1
Mar (Rs moving actual values of (Rs yearly of actual of
mn) average from moving scaled mn) movin values scaled
X x;x1=x/1000 deviatio g from deviatio
0 n averag moving n
eY y;y1=y/10
x 1 ^2 0 y1 ^2

2010 30028 - - 68729 - - -
9
2011 37324 336767 - 86829 18100 - -
5
2012 47982 426535 89768 80.62 10457 17745 -355 12.6025 1016
E 5 4
2013 57682 528323. 101788.5 103.61 12194 17373 -372 13.8384 1433.8
E 2 5 7
∑ ∑y1^2= ∑x1y1=
x1^2=
184.23 26.4409 2449.8

Now, r = ∑x1y1

-------------------------------- = 2449.8/(184.23*26.4409) = 0.5029

√∑x1^2√∑y1^2

Thus it has +tive correlation and thus it is probable and related.



Calculation of Regression Equation of y1 on x1.

x1 x 1 ^2 y1 y 1 ^2 x 1 y1
8.98 80.62 -3.55 12.60 1060
10.18 103.61 -3.72 13.84 1433.8
∑x1= ∑x1^2=184.23 ∑y1= ∑y1^2=26.44 ∑x1y1=2493.8
19.16 -7.27

Y-Y' = r Std y (X-X')

------------

Std x

Y'= ∑y1/N = -7.27/2 = -3.635

X'= ∑x1/N= 19.16/2= 9.58

r Std y/Std x = N∑x1y1- ∑x1 ∑y1

--------------------------------- = 2* 2493.8 - 19.16 * (-7.27)

N∑x1^2 - (∑x1)^2 -------------------------------- =5126.89/1.3544

2* 184.23 - (19.16)^2

= 3785.35883

Y = -3.635+ 3785.36(X-9.58)

Y = -36267.3838 + 3785.36 X

Y(39000) = 147592772.6 .

Conclusion:

The Deviation of Y value is too large from the range thus they are not dependent on
each other.



Data Interpretation

600000
500000
400000
300000
200000 2010
100000 2013E
0 2012E 2011
2011
2012E
2010
2013E



Finding And Conclusion
The parameters of Sales and PAT are correlated but are not dependent on each other. Thus in
bonds trend analysis the trends may forecast a correlation but they are interlinked or show a
pattern of dependency. It is the net flow of investments that decides the flow of bull and bear
market.



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Power Point Presentation

Bond Portfolio
Management
Introduction



Corporate Bonds
Government Bonds



Features of a Bond
Bond Market



Market Volatility
Others ….



Tata Consultancy Ltd…
Financial Data …



Data Interpretation…

600000

500000

400000

300000

200000 2010
2011
100000
2013E 2012E
0
2012E 2013E
2011
2010
Conclusion…


Bond portfolio management

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