Inaugural Blockchain Symposium
Blacksburg VA, April 20, 2018
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Blockchain Economics
Industry and Institutional Disruption
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 1
Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist
 Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue
University, Indiana, USA
 Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies
 Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and
Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE
Essayist; FQXi Advisor
Traditional Markets Background
Economics and Financial
Theory Leadership
New Economies research group
Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
 Economics
 Study of resource discovery and propagation to
fulfill needs (supply and demand)
 Wants are always bigger than available
resources (cost of decision-making, opportunity
cost, scarcity (material or intangible))
 Eras of Economic Study
1. Classical Economics (material goods)
2. Network Economics (digital goods)
3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets,
smart contracts, and DApps/DACs)
2
DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
 New economic model’s distinguishing aspects
1. Open network business model
 Two-way network effects (Metcalfe’s Law (n2))
 MV=PQ money supply valuation
 Vs. proprietary platform (GOOG, FB, NFLX, IG)
2. Token system for asset and monetary transfer:
users expect to participate in the community
economy
 Earn, vote, trade, access resources
3. Initial Coin Offerings as a novel and official
financing method
 Pre-sell token access to the network
4. Large-scale global participative communities
3
Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
4
2015 2016
2017
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 5
economic
challenges.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Economic Challenges
6
Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan.
Debt
Systemic Risk
Entitlements
Overhang
Healthcare
(Cost-Outcome)
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Challenges and Potential Solutions
7
Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan.
Debt
Systemic Risk
Entitlements
Overhang
Healthcare
(Cost-Outcome)
Net Settlement
a) Payment Channels
b) Payments/Securities as a Service
Programmable Risk
a) Black Swan Smart Contracts
b) Real-time Balance Sheets
c) Apply Deep Learning (RNN) to HFT
Automation Economy
a) Future of Work/Technological Unemployment
b) Human-Machine Collaboration
Blockchain Health Economics
a) Global Healthcare Equivalency Units
b) Digital ID, consent, interoperable data
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 8
Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755
debt.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 9
net settlement.
payment channels.
digital credit systems.
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
rethink debt.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Payment Channels: the concept
10
 Ability to “have an account” relationship with any party
 3-step financial contract executed over time
1. Party A opens a payment channel with Party B and posts a
pre-paid escrow balance
2. Party A consumes against the escrow credit over the given
time period (activity is tracked)
3. At the end of the period, cumulative activity is booked in one
net transaction to close the contract
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Payment Channel motivation and projects
 Motivation
 Micropayments for video bandwidth
consumption where piecemeal
transactions do not make sense
 Blockchain scalability (offload tx)
 Send payments across p2p network
 Projects
 Bitcoin: Lightning Network
 Time/signature lock parameters:
CheckLockTimeVerify,
CheckSequenceVerify
 Current ~$350 max (4% Btc) for
Lightning Payment channels
 Ethereum: Raiden, Plasma
11
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
1. Unilateral Payment Channel
12
Source: Extended from https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling
Opening Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Interim Transactions: Signed
between Wallets (both parties
agree and are obligated; not
Broadcast to Network)
USD $50
Alice opens $50 “Monthly Payment
Channel” with Starbucks
Closing Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Alice consumes coffee and
Starbucks adjusts the refund
balance from the initial deposit
USD $5
4/1/18
4/30/18
1
2
Close “Monthly Payment Channel”:
Starbucks broadcasts last refund
amount to network
Starbucks
Coffee
USD $50
USD $45
Starbucks acknowledges with
unbroadcast refund of $50
4/2/18
USD $5
3
4/3/18
USD $5
4
4/4/18
USD $40
USD $35
USD $35
30
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
1. Unilateral Payment Channels
 Starbucks Example
1. Customer opens $50 monthly payment
channel with Starbucks
2. Daily coffee consumed is tracked and
booked against the $50 credit
3. Activity is netted at the end of the month.
Contracts close and roll over at regular
intervals. Either party may close the
channel early, trigger net settlement
 SBUX: payment channel prototype
 Loyalty program (cards & apps): 41%
purchases, $1.2 bn obligations
13
SBUX Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1.2bn
Liabilities
Stored Value
Cards $1.2bn
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
2. Bilateral Payment Channel
14
Source: Extended from https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling
SBUX Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1.2bn
Liabilities
Stored Value
Cards $1.2bn
Opening Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Interim Transactions:
Signed between Wallets
(not Broadcast to Network)
1 BTC
Open “Monthly Expense”
payment channel: create a new
address, each fund with 1 BTC
Closing Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
1 BTC
Each pays for expenses
from the shared address
during the month
1.2 BTC 0.8 BTC
4/1/18
4/30/18
1
2
3
Close “Monthly Expense” payment
channel: net settle the balance
returned to each
Roommate
Expense Sharing
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
3. Community Payment Channel
15
Source: https://solarpowerrocks.com/solar-basics/how-much-electricity-does-a-solar-panel-produce
Opening Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Interim Transactions: Daily
production and consumption
measured as signed
transactions between Wallets
A, B, C, D ante up monthly dues to
the address to open this month’s
“Community Payment Channel”
Closing Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Energy Produced
4/1/18
4/30/18
2
Close this month’s “Community
Payment Channel” with net
amount returned to A, B, C, D
0.8 kWh
CSC: Community Solar Coin
Token: ante-up expenses, vote,
governance re: how price per kWh,
smart contract lookups to pricing
oracle; additional capital calls
during the month if necessary
4/2/18
4/3/183 Etc.
30
Local Solar
Energy Production
1 CSC 1 CSCA B
C D
1 CSC 1 CSC
Energy Consumed
1.2 kWhA A
Energy Produced
1.1 kWh
Energy Consumed
0.6 kWhB B
Energy Produced
1.3 kWh
Energy Consumed
0.7 kWhC C
Energy Produced
1.0 kWh
Energy Consumed
1.1 kWhD D
1
A
B
C D
1 CSC 0.8 CSC
1.2 CSC1.1 CSC
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Transactive Grid, President St, Brooklyn NY
 Decentralized DIY energy markets
 Blockchain-based microgrid
 Community:
 Five net-producing homes generating
energy through solar power
 Five net-consuming homes interested
in buying excess energy from
neighbors
 Benefits: no billing components, no
infrastructure losses, no
accounting losses in the system
 Ability for producers to sell or
donate excess
16
Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
4. Multi-resource Community
Payment Channel
17
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/the-crypto-enlightenment-social-theory-of-blockchains
Opening Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Interim Transactions: Daily
production and consumption
measured as signed
transactions between Wallets
A, B, C ante up monthly dues to the
address to open this month’s
“Community Payment Channel”
Closing Transaction:
Broadcast to Network
Energy Produced
4/1/18
4/30/18
2
Close this month’s “Community
Payment Channel” with net
amount returned to A, B, C
0.8 kWh
CSC: Community Coin
Token: ante-up expenses, voting,
governance, decision-making re:
resource pricing; additional capital
calls; dispute resolution mechanism
4/2/18
4/3/183 Etc.
30
Sustainable
Community
1 CSC 1 CSCA B
C
1 CSC
Energy Consumed
1.2 kWhA
Greens Produced
3 units
Greens Consumed
1 unit
B
Bandwidth
Produced
10 units
Bandwidth
Consumed
3 units
1
A B
C
1 CSC
0.8 CSC
1.1 CSC
B
C
1.2 kWh
A
C
C A
B
2 units
1 unit
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Uber for Microgreens
Who’s harvesting today?
18
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/the-crypto-enlightenment-social-theory-of-blockchains;
Swan, M. 2017. Technological Unemployment, In Surviving the Machine Age. Springer.
LocalGreens
Kale – SuperGreens
Citizen’s sense of duty to
serve the republic
Civic Duty
Civic Collaboration
Greek Statesman
Self-directed Cryptocitizen
Optional peer infrastructure
provision: Cryptocitizen’s
sense of meaning and
purpose in participating in
community sustainability
Identity Crisis: who are we in the Automation Economy,
Technological Unemployment, and the Future of Work?
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
5. Small Group Payment Channel
 Local bar: Lynn, Chris, Bartender
 Lynn has $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $6
 Chris has $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $5
 Lynn and Chris play pool, Chris owes Lynn $5
 Current method (gross settlement): each party settles with
each other (3 tx, $16 gross flow)
 New method (net settlement): (2 tx, $11 gross flow)
 Already see implication if less money transfers, more is available
19
Source: Andreas Antonopoulos
Bartender
A/R
Lynn $6
Chris $5
Lynn
A/R
Chris $5 Bar $6
A/P
$1
Chris
Bar $5
A/P
$10
Lynn $5
$11
Current
Method
Tx1 $6-Lynn
Tx2 $5-Chris
Tx3 $5-Lynn
Payment
Channel
Tx1 $10 C-to-B
Tx2 $1 L-to-B
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
6. MyMonthlyExpense Payment Channel
 My monthly expenses example
 De facto payment channel
 Inflows into bank account:
 Paycheck direct deposit
 Outflows from bank account:
 Auto-pay bills (fixed and variable)
 Formalized into a multi-party payment
contract netting salary against
expenses, any remainder to Schwab
investment account
 Implication: settling net basis frees capital
 Consider business entities on a net basis
20
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
My monthly expenses
Salary (direct deposit)
DR CR
$xx
Expenses (auto-pay)
Rent (fixed amount)
Car payment (fixed)
Utilities (variable)
Discretionary (variable)
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
Net savings (variable) $xx
$xx
My apartment building
Expected inflows
DR CR
$xx
Expected outflows
Fixed
Variable
Net
$xx
$xx
$xx
My small business
Expected inflows
DR CR
$xx
Expected outflows
Fixed
Variable
Net
$xx
$xx
$xx
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
7. MySupplyChain Payment Graph Economy
 Blockchains: only sub-registers of the cash
account (Alice, Bob, HSBC, etc.), not a full
suite of general ledger accounts
 Property registries use cash-acct ledger structure
 Property registries where UTXOs are assets
 Birth/death registry: one credit tx, one debit tx
 Supply chain finance: for supply chain net
settling, need integrated account ledgers
 Single set of books with multiple views: by supply
chain (new) + by entity (existing)
 Revenue (WMT); COGS (Deere, Adidas)
21
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
My supply chain
Sales Inventory COGS Manufacturing Raw Materials
Cash
Alice
Bob
Carol
Ralph
HSBC
DR CR
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
Payments trajectory
Goods trajectory
Orthogonal trajectories,
different incentives, behavior
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Payment Channel implications
 New forms of Digital Credit Systems
 Contractually-obligated payment relationships
 Booked as periodic net activity
 Net settlement
 Digitized payment system for resource consumption that
settles based on net payments instead of gross transfers
 Peer-provided banking services enabled
22
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Securities as a Service
23
Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service,
http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html
CD, DVD
Streaming Music and
Video Services
Entertainment as
a Service
Asset
Service
Auto, Home
Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno,
Via; Airbnb, VRBO
HomeAway
Transportation,
Domicile as a Service
Securities
Securities as
a Service
 Securities a Service
 Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets
 Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning
 Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability
 Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself
Consumable benefits of
securities: cash flow,
appreciation
Payments as
a Service
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 24
systemic risk.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 25
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
 Blockchain business networks
 Single shared business processes
 Multiple private views
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
business networks.
26
digitized assets.
instantaneous transactability.
shared business processes.
the world is your VPN
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 27
real-time balance sheets.
off-balance sheet obligations
disappear.
diminished risk.
Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755
rethink risk.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain 28
 HFT = program trading,
automated execution
1. Higher volume since 2008
 Institutional investor volume
fixed (3-4 bn shares/day)
 Total volume: 2x higher
 50-70% total volume = HFT
2. Higher volatility
3. Tighter bid-ask spreads
4. Greater price efficiency
(no price gaps)
HFT (high-frequency trading)
Sources: Chaparro, F. 2017. Credit Suisse: Here's how high-frequency trading has changed the stock market. Business
Insider. https://speedtrader.com/how-algorithms-and-high-frequency-trading-programs-affect-your-trading/
https://snipethetrade.com/us/high-frequency-trading
US Equity markets
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Programmable Risk
Black Swan Smart Contracts
 Financial options (put/call) used to
control/manufacture exposure
 Convexity (Fig. 1): control down-side
risk, upside gain, anti-fragile (robust)
 Concavity: undesirable risk profile
 Taleb: map event probabilities as
s-curve (Fig. 2) in medicine, etc.
 Convex-linear-concave profile
 Use programmable risk dropdown
feature of smart contracts to
manage risk in more domains
29
Sources: Swan, M. Submitted. Programmable Risk: Black Swan Smart Contracts, IEEE;
Taleb, Medicine: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1208/1208.1189.pdf
Figure 1
Figure 2
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
future.
30
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
store money.
31
old model.
networks.
banks.
new model.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
change.
32
https://www.coindesk.com/jpmorgan-says-it-may-have-to-adapt-to-counter-crypto-adoption
“…financial institutions…face the risk that
payment processing and other services could
be disrupted by technologies such as
cryptocurrencies that require no intermediation”
Annual 10K, Mar 2018
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
power of the press.
33
old model.
networks.
newspapers.
new model.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
power of the wallet.
34
old model.
peer networks.
banks.
new model.
1. Token Name
2. Ticker
3. Denominations
4. Total Money Supply
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
government as service
provider.
35
old model.
eResidency.
Exclusivity: One default
economic and political
sovereign birth regime.
new model.
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
Plurality: Plug and play
economic and political
services regimes.
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
inclusion.
36
banking & credit.
land registry.
identity.
electricity.
vaccines & medicine.
Source: https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/unicef-in-action/april-2017/photos-vaccines-reach-most-remote-places-earth
Digital health wallet
20 Apr 2018
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics
Challenges and Disruptive Solutions
37
Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan.
Debt
Systemic Risk
Entitlements
Overhang
Healthcare
(Cost-Outcome)
Net Settlement
a) Payment Channels
b) Payments/Securities as a Service
Programmable Risk
a) Black Swan Smart Contracts
b) Real-time Balance Sheets
c) Apply Deep Learning (RNN) to HFT
Automation Economy
a) Future of Work/Technological Unemployment
b) Human-Machine Collaboration
Blockchain Health Economics
a) Global Healthcare Equivalency Units
b) Digital ID, consent, interoperable data
Inaugural Blockchain Symposium
Blacksburg VA, April 20, 2018
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Blockchain Economics
Industry and Institutional Disruption
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org

Blockchain Economics: Tackle Debt and Systemic Risk

  • 1.
    Inaugural Blockchain Symposium BlacksburgVA, April 20, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics Industry and Institutional Disruption Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
  • 2.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain1 Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist  Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue University, Indiana, USA  Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies  Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE Essayist; FQXi Advisor Traditional Markets Background Economics and Financial Theory Leadership New Economies research group Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
  • 3.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain BlockchainEconomics  Economics  Study of resource discovery and propagation to fulfill needs (supply and demand)  Wants are always bigger than available resources (cost of decision-making, opportunity cost, scarcity (material or intangible))  Eras of Economic Study 1. Classical Economics (material goods) 2. Network Economics (digital goods) 3. Blockchain Economics (cryptographic assets, smart contracts, and DApps/DACs) 2 DApp: decentralized application; DAC: decentralized autonomous corporation
  • 4.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain BlockchainEconomics  New economic model’s distinguishing aspects 1. Open network business model  Two-way network effects (Metcalfe’s Law (n2))  MV=PQ money supply valuation  Vs. proprietary platform (GOOG, FB, NFLX, IG) 2. Token system for asset and monetary transfer: users expect to participate in the community economy  Earn, vote, trade, access resources 3. Initial Coin Offerings as a novel and official financing method  Pre-sell token access to the network 4. Large-scale global participative communities 3 Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • 5.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain BlockchainEconomics 4 2015 2016 2017
  • 6.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain5 economic challenges.
  • 7.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain EconomicChallenges 6 Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan. Debt Systemic Risk Entitlements Overhang Healthcare (Cost-Outcome)
  • 8.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain Challengesand Potential Solutions 7 Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan. Debt Systemic Risk Entitlements Overhang Healthcare (Cost-Outcome) Net Settlement a) Payment Channels b) Payments/Securities as a Service Programmable Risk a) Black Swan Smart Contracts b) Real-time Balance Sheets c) Apply Deep Learning (RNN) to HFT Automation Economy a) Future of Work/Technological Unemployment b) Human-Machine Collaboration Blockchain Health Economics a) Global Healthcare Equivalency Units b) Digital ID, consent, interoperable data
  • 9.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain8 Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755 debt.
  • 10.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain9 net settlement. payment channels. digital credit systems. Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109 rethink debt.
  • 11.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain PaymentChannels: the concept 10  Ability to “have an account” relationship with any party  3-step financial contract executed over time 1. Party A opens a payment channel with Party B and posts a pre-paid escrow balance 2. Party A consumes against the escrow credit over the given time period (activity is tracked) 3. At the end of the period, cumulative activity is booked in one net transaction to close the contract Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
  • 12.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain PaymentChannel motivation and projects  Motivation  Micropayments for video bandwidth consumption where piecemeal transactions do not make sense  Blockchain scalability (offload tx)  Send payments across p2p network  Projects  Bitcoin: Lightning Network  Time/signature lock parameters: CheckLockTimeVerify, CheckSequenceVerify  Current ~$350 max (4% Btc) for Lightning Payment channels  Ethereum: Raiden, Plasma 11 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
  • 13.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 1.Unilateral Payment Channel 12 Source: Extended from https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling Opening Transaction: Broadcast to Network Interim Transactions: Signed between Wallets (both parties agree and are obligated; not Broadcast to Network) USD $50 Alice opens $50 “Monthly Payment Channel” with Starbucks Closing Transaction: Broadcast to Network Alice consumes coffee and Starbucks adjusts the refund balance from the initial deposit USD $5 4/1/18 4/30/18 1 2 Close “Monthly Payment Channel”: Starbucks broadcasts last refund amount to network Starbucks Coffee USD $50 USD $45 Starbucks acknowledges with unbroadcast refund of $50 4/2/18 USD $5 3 4/3/18 USD $5 4 4/4/18 USD $40 USD $35 USD $35 30
  • 14.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 1.Unilateral Payment Channels  Starbucks Example 1. Customer opens $50 monthly payment channel with Starbucks 2. Daily coffee consumed is tracked and booked against the $50 credit 3. Activity is netted at the end of the month. Contracts close and roll over at regular intervals. Either party may close the channel early, trigger net settlement  SBUX: payment channel prototype  Loyalty program (cards & apps): 41% purchases, $1.2 bn obligations 13 SBUX Balance Sheet Assets Cash $1.2bn Liabilities Stored Value Cards $1.2bn Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/blockchain-economics-payment-channels
  • 15.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 2.Bilateral Payment Channel 14 Source: Extended from https://www.investinblockchain.com/lightning-network-bitcoin-scaling SBUX Balance Sheet Assets Cash $1.2bn Liabilities Stored Value Cards $1.2bn Opening Transaction: Broadcast to Network Interim Transactions: Signed between Wallets (not Broadcast to Network) 1 BTC Open “Monthly Expense” payment channel: create a new address, each fund with 1 BTC Closing Transaction: Broadcast to Network 1 BTC Each pays for expenses from the shared address during the month 1.2 BTC 0.8 BTC 4/1/18 4/30/18 1 2 3 Close “Monthly Expense” payment channel: net settle the balance returned to each Roommate Expense Sharing
  • 16.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 3.Community Payment Channel 15 Source: https://solarpowerrocks.com/solar-basics/how-much-electricity-does-a-solar-panel-produce Opening Transaction: Broadcast to Network Interim Transactions: Daily production and consumption measured as signed transactions between Wallets A, B, C, D ante up monthly dues to the address to open this month’s “Community Payment Channel” Closing Transaction: Broadcast to Network Energy Produced 4/1/18 4/30/18 2 Close this month’s “Community Payment Channel” with net amount returned to A, B, C, D 0.8 kWh CSC: Community Solar Coin Token: ante-up expenses, vote, governance re: how price per kWh, smart contract lookups to pricing oracle; additional capital calls during the month if necessary 4/2/18 4/3/183 Etc. 30 Local Solar Energy Production 1 CSC 1 CSCA B C D 1 CSC 1 CSC Energy Consumed 1.2 kWhA A Energy Produced 1.1 kWh Energy Consumed 0.6 kWhB B Energy Produced 1.3 kWh Energy Consumed 0.7 kWhC C Energy Produced 1.0 kWh Energy Consumed 1.1 kWhD D 1 A B C D 1 CSC 0.8 CSC 1.2 CSC1.1 CSC
  • 17.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain TransactiveGrid, President St, Brooklyn NY  Decentralized DIY energy markets  Blockchain-based microgrid  Community:  Five net-producing homes generating energy through solar power  Five net-consuming homes interested in buying excess energy from neighbors  Benefits: no billing components, no infrastructure losses, no accounting losses in the system  Ability for producers to sell or donate excess 16 Source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2079334-blockchain-based-microgrid-gives-power-to-consumers-in-new-york
  • 18.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 4.Multi-resource Community Payment Channel 17 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/the-crypto-enlightenment-social-theory-of-blockchains Opening Transaction: Broadcast to Network Interim Transactions: Daily production and consumption measured as signed transactions between Wallets A, B, C ante up monthly dues to the address to open this month’s “Community Payment Channel” Closing Transaction: Broadcast to Network Energy Produced 4/1/18 4/30/18 2 Close this month’s “Community Payment Channel” with net amount returned to A, B, C 0.8 kWh CSC: Community Coin Token: ante-up expenses, voting, governance, decision-making re: resource pricing; additional capital calls; dispute resolution mechanism 4/2/18 4/3/183 Etc. 30 Sustainable Community 1 CSC 1 CSCA B C 1 CSC Energy Consumed 1.2 kWhA Greens Produced 3 units Greens Consumed 1 unit B Bandwidth Produced 10 units Bandwidth Consumed 3 units 1 A B C 1 CSC 0.8 CSC 1.1 CSC B C 1.2 kWh A C C A B 2 units 1 unit
  • 19.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain Uberfor Microgreens Who’s harvesting today? 18 Source: https://www.slideshare.net/lablogga/the-crypto-enlightenment-social-theory-of-blockchains; Swan, M. 2017. Technological Unemployment, In Surviving the Machine Age. Springer. LocalGreens Kale – SuperGreens Citizen’s sense of duty to serve the republic Civic Duty Civic Collaboration Greek Statesman Self-directed Cryptocitizen Optional peer infrastructure provision: Cryptocitizen’s sense of meaning and purpose in participating in community sustainability Identity Crisis: who are we in the Automation Economy, Technological Unemployment, and the Future of Work?
  • 20.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 5.Small Group Payment Channel  Local bar: Lynn, Chris, Bartender  Lynn has $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $6  Chris has $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $5  Lynn and Chris play pool, Chris owes Lynn $5  Current method (gross settlement): each party settles with each other (3 tx, $16 gross flow)  New method (net settlement): (2 tx, $11 gross flow)  Already see implication if less money transfers, more is available 19 Source: Andreas Antonopoulos Bartender A/R Lynn $6 Chris $5 Lynn A/R Chris $5 Bar $6 A/P $1 Chris Bar $5 A/P $10 Lynn $5 $11 Current Method Tx1 $6-Lynn Tx2 $5-Chris Tx3 $5-Lynn Payment Channel Tx1 $10 C-to-B Tx2 $1 L-to-B
  • 21.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 6.MyMonthlyExpense Payment Channel  My monthly expenses example  De facto payment channel  Inflows into bank account:  Paycheck direct deposit  Outflows from bank account:  Auto-pay bills (fixed and variable)  Formalized into a multi-party payment contract netting salary against expenses, any remainder to Schwab investment account  Implication: settling net basis frees capital  Consider business entities on a net basis 20 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market My monthly expenses Salary (direct deposit) DR CR $xx Expenses (auto-pay) Rent (fixed amount) Car payment (fixed) Utilities (variable) Discretionary (variable) $xx $xx $xx $xx Net savings (variable) $xx $xx My apartment building Expected inflows DR CR $xx Expected outflows Fixed Variable Net $xx $xx $xx My small business Expected inflows DR CR $xx Expected outflows Fixed Variable Net $xx $xx $xx
  • 22.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain 7.MySupplyChain Payment Graph Economy  Blockchains: only sub-registers of the cash account (Alice, Bob, HSBC, etc.), not a full suite of general ledger accounts  Property registries use cash-acct ledger structure  Property registries where UTXOs are assets  Birth/death registry: one credit tx, one debit tx  Supply chain finance: for supply chain net settling, need integrated account ledgers  Single set of books with multiple views: by supply chain (new) + by entity (existing)  Revenue (WMT); COGS (Deere, Adidas) 21 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market My supply chain Sales Inventory COGS Manufacturing Raw Materials Cash Alice Bob Carol Ralph HSBC DR CR $xx $xx $xx $xx $xx Payments trajectory Goods trajectory Orthogonal trajectories, different incentives, behavior
  • 23.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain PaymentChannel implications  New forms of Digital Credit Systems  Contractually-obligated payment relationships  Booked as periodic net activity  Net settlement  Digitized payment system for resource consumption that settles based on net payments instead of gross transfers  Peer-provided banking services enabled 22
  • 24.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain Securitiesas a Service 23 Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service, http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html CD, DVD Streaming Music and Video Services Entertainment as a Service Asset Service Auto, Home Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno, Via; Airbnb, VRBO HomeAway Transportation, Domicile as a Service Securities Securities as a Service  Securities a Service  Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets  Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning  Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability  Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself Consumable benefits of securities: cash flow, appreciation Payments as a Service
  • 25.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain24 systemic risk.
  • 26.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain25 Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109  Blockchain business networks  Single shared business processes  Multiple private views
  • 27.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain businessnetworks. 26 digitized assets. instantaneous transactability. shared business processes. the world is your VPN Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
  • 28.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain27 real-time balance sheets. off-balance sheet obligations disappear. diminished risk. Source: http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=21755 rethink risk.
  • 29.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain28  HFT = program trading, automated execution 1. Higher volume since 2008  Institutional investor volume fixed (3-4 bn shares/day)  Total volume: 2x higher  50-70% total volume = HFT 2. Higher volatility 3. Tighter bid-ask spreads 4. Greater price efficiency (no price gaps) HFT (high-frequency trading) Sources: Chaparro, F. 2017. Credit Suisse: Here's how high-frequency trading has changed the stock market. Business Insider. https://speedtrader.com/how-algorithms-and-high-frequency-trading-programs-affect-your-trading/ https://snipethetrade.com/us/high-frequency-trading US Equity markets
  • 30.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain ProgrammableRisk Black Swan Smart Contracts  Financial options (put/call) used to control/manufacture exposure  Convexity (Fig. 1): control down-side risk, upside gain, anti-fragile (robust)  Concavity: undesirable risk profile  Taleb: map event probabilities as s-curve (Fig. 2) in medicine, etc.  Convex-linear-concave profile  Use programmable risk dropdown feature of smart contracts to manage risk in more domains 29 Sources: Swan, M. Submitted. Programmable Risk: Black Swan Smart Contracts, IEEE; Taleb, Medicine: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1208/1208.1189.pdf Figure 1 Figure 2
  • 31.
  • 32.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain storemoney. 31 old model. networks. banks. new model.
  • 33.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain change. 32 https://www.coindesk.com/jpmorgan-says-it-may-have-to-adapt-to-counter-crypto-adoption “…financialinstitutions…face the risk that payment processing and other services could be disrupted by technologies such as cryptocurrencies that require no intermediation” Annual 10K, Mar 2018
  • 34.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain powerof the press. 33 old model. networks. newspapers. new model.
  • 35.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain powerof the wallet. 34 old model. peer networks. banks. new model. 1. Token Name 2. Ticker 3. Denominations 4. Total Money Supply
  • 36.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain governmentas service provider. 35 old model. eResidency. Exclusivity: One default economic and political sovereign birth regime. new model. Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf Plurality: Plug and play economic and political services regimes.
  • 37.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain inclusion. 36 banking& credit. land registry. identity. electricity. vaccines & medicine. Source: https://www.unicef.org.au/blog/unicef-in-action/april-2017/photos-vaccines-reach-most-remote-places-earth Digital health wallet
  • 38.
    20 Apr 2018 Blockchain BlockchainEconomics Challenges and Disruptive Solutions 37 Source: Swan, M. Forthcoming. Blockchain Economic Networks. Palgrave Macmillan. Debt Systemic Risk Entitlements Overhang Healthcare (Cost-Outcome) Net Settlement a) Payment Channels b) Payments/Securities as a Service Programmable Risk a) Black Swan Smart Contracts b) Real-time Balance Sheets c) Apply Deep Learning (RNN) to HFT Automation Economy a) Future of Work/Technological Unemployment b) Human-Machine Collaboration Blockchain Health Economics a) Global Healthcare Equivalency Units b) Digital ID, consent, interoperable data
  • 39.
    Inaugural Blockchain Symposium BlacksburgVA, April 20, 2018 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics Industry and Institutional Disruption Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org