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Desert Blockchain, Grand Canyon University
November 11, 2017
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Blockchain Economics:
Payment Channels
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain 1
Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist
 Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue
University, Indiana, USA
 Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies
 Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and
Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE
Essayist; FQXi Advisor
Traditional Markets Background
Economics and Financial
Theory Leadership
New Economies research group
Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain
2
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
 To inspire us to build
this world
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain 3
Mindset of Innovation
What is the Killer App of Blockchain?
Netscape makes the
web browsable (1995)
Google makes the web
searchable (1999)
???
? makes the blockchain
indispensable (2xxx)
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain 4
Source: http://web.stanford.edu/~buenz/pubs/bulletproofs.pdf
Stanford, Nov 4-5, 2017
 Privacy: confidential transactions (zk proofs+)
 “Bulletproofs” efficient range proofs (efficient: proof size is
logarithmic in the witness size; range: x-y) (Bunz)
 Payment channel SLAs, guarantees
 Multiple simultaneous transactions
 Multiple simultaneous channels
 Scalability
 FlyClient (thin-SPV client (most recent not full list of header
hashes)), BlockSci (agnostic chain explorer platform), Graphene
(IBFT block propagation)
 Cryptography
 EC-DSA, Schnorr signatures, quantum cryptography
 Smart contracts, payment channels for Ethereum
Cancun, Nov
1-4, 2017
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Market Update
 Payment Channels
5
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Investing
6
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-bitcoin-continues-to-be-on-the-top-of-its-game
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
ICOs = “crypto-daytrading”?
 $3.5 bn cumulative ICO funding (Coindesk)
 ICOs surpass VC funding (PitchBook)
 ICOs: $3.5 bn, VC funding: $2.7 bn (2/14-10/17)
 Tokens: many functions beyond fundraising
 Voting, dividends, access, participation, notification
7
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/3q-2017-fintech-analyst-note-blockchain
Cumulative ICO Funding
2/3/14 - 10/31/17
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
ICO Regulatory Stance
 US: investor protection; regulated (Jul 2017)
 ICOs and exchanges; what about smart contracts?
 ICOs vs token sales (network utility) vs crowdfunding
 Howey Test: is it a security?
1. Investment of money
2. Expectation of profits from the investment
3. The investment of money is in a common enterprise
4. Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party
 International Climate
 UK: caveat emptor; safer if regulated, not regulated
 China: banned, exchanges ordered to close (Sep 2017)
 Russia: regulation expected by end 2017 (Sep 2017)
 Reg Arb: Gibraltar DLT Regulated Entities (2018e)
8
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://www.coindesk.com/china-outlaws-icos-financial-regulators-order-halt-token-
trading/
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations (11/17)
9
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com, http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500; List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia
 S&P 500: $22.2 tn; US GDP $18.8 tn
 Crypto market cap: $200 bn (≃ top 50th of 200 countries)
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Regulated Futures & Options
1. LedgerX Options
 Cleared $1m (week 1), $2m (week 2)
 NY-based CFTC-regulated Swap Execution
Facility (SEF) and Derivatives Clearing
Organization (DCO)
 Swap execution facility, clearing Bitcoin options
 Sep 2017 began providing physically-settled put
and call options and day-ahead swaps trading
 Private trading for large customers
10
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/bitcoin-options-to-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Regulated Futures & Options
2. CME Bitcoin futures contracts – 4Q17e
 Cash-settled
 Settlement based on CME CF Bitcoin Reference
Rate (BRR), launched in November 2016 with
London-based Crypto Facilities trading platform
3. CBOE Bitcoin futures contracts - 1Q18e
 Cash-settled, pending CFTC review
 Settlement based on Gemini Trust data
 Significance: cryptocurrency exposure in an
institutional product, demand could be huge
11
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/cme-plans-to-launch-bitcoin-futures-by-year-end.html
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Institutional Markets
 Exposure to cryptographic assets
 Asset class current value: $200 billion
 Estimated value in 10 years: $2 trillion
 Demand for regulated products
 Dark pools (institutional exchanges for
Contracts-for-Difference, private trading,
block trades; $20m+)
 Genesis Trading, Cumberland Mining,
Circle, Gemini Exchange, Project Omni
 Regulated Futures and Options
 LedgerX, CME, CBOE
 Regulated ICOs
12
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order,
https://www.coindesk.com/standpoint-founder-bitcoin-asset-class-will-grow-2-trillion-market/
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Private Chains: zk proofs
 Monero
 Z-Cash
 Dash
 Aeon
 Pivx
 Kimodo
13
Live connection to Coinbase (1% fee)
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Privacy Pendulum:
Swinging back to more privacy
14
 Historically: lots of privacy; Surveillance era: strange
logic of few bad apples so insecure surveillance of all;
centralized (Equifax) cybersecurity does not work
 Future era: swing back to privacy; restore checks &
balances
Institutionally-
specified Reality
Self-determined
Reality
More Privacy
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Social Theory of Blockchain
Bigger stakes: Societal Structure
15
 Privacy is merely the first battle
 Internet failed to include privacy
Societal Structure
Privacy
Tension
Impact
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Crypto-enlightenment
16
“Multiple private currencies should
compete for customer business”
- Friedrich Hayek
“One ought to think autonomously,
free of the dictates of external
authority” - Immanuel Kant
 Economics and Government
Source: Kant, I. "Answering the Question: What Is Enlightenment?" (German: Beantwortung der Frage: Was ist Aufklärung?). 1784.
Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased)
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Market Update
 Payment Channels
17
Blockchain Economics & Finance
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Distributed Networks
18
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Decentralized
(based on hubs)
Centralized Distributed
(based on peers)
 Radical implication: every node is a peer who can
provide services to other peers
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
P2P Network Nodes provide services
19
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
Centralized bank tracks
payments between clients
“Classic”
Banking
Peer
Banking
 Nodes deliver services to others, for a small fee
 Transaction ledger hosting (~10,000 Bitcoind nodes)
 Transaction confirmation and logging (mining)
 News services (“decentralized Reddit”: Steemit, Yours)
 Banking services (payment channels (netting offsets))
Network nodes store transaction
record settled by many individuals
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
4.9 bn global mobile users (65% world)
20
Source: https://wearesocial-net.s3.amazonaws.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/01/Slide007.png
 Era of digital services
 Computationally-based society has less need for a brick-and-
mortar institutional footprint
 Are we ready? Is a bloom filter a worse version of a FICO score
(e.g. a black box determining my life over which I have no say)?
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Bottom-up Finance: La Plataforma
21
Source: http://www.laplataformalatam.com/#nosotros
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: the concept
1. Network is a graph (vertices, edges)
 Payment, credit, transaction graph
2. Net clearing
 Contracts-for-difference (CFD); (without the 10x
options-style leverage of the financial instrument)
 Spread betting
 Net settlement (vs Gross settlement)
 Central banks clear amongst themselves with RTGS
(real-time gross settlement) systems (as does
Ripple)
 Industry consortia, interbank daily settlements are
tabulated on a net basis
3. “Have an account,” “run-a-tab” economy
22
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
What is a Payment Channel?
 3-step financial contract executed over time
1. One party opens a payment channel with another
party and posts a pre-payment escrow balance
2. The party consumes against this credit over the given
time period (activity is tracked)
3. At the end of the period, cumulative activity is booked
in one net transaction to close the contract
23
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
What is a Payment Channel?
 Motivation
 Improve scalability through contractually-obligated
relationships booked as periodic net activity
 Micropayments mechanism for video bandwidth consumption
where piecemeal transactions do not make sense
 Current ~$250 max (4% Btc) for Lightning Payment channels
 Bigger implication
 Might develop into a digitized payment system for resource
consumption that settles based on net payments instead of
gross transfers, and enables peer-to-peer banking services
 Sophisticated functionality
 Concatenated payment channels, time/signature lock
parameters (CheckLockTimeVerify, CheckSequenceVerify)
24
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: Level 1
 Starbucks Example
1. Customer opens $50 monthly payment
channel with Starbucks
2. Daily coffee consumed is tracked and
booked against the $50 credit
3. Activity is netted at the end of the month.
Contracts close and roll over at regular
intervals. Either party may close the
channel early, trigger net settlement
 SBUX: payment channel prototype
 Loyalty program (cards & apps): 41%
purchases, $1.2 bn obligations
25
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
SBUX Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash $1.2bn
Liabilities
Stored Value
Cards $1.2bn
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Accounting and Legal Treatment?
 Promise of cryptocurrencies as
“programmable money” in implementation
 A contingent three-part financial contract over
time is a new instrument
 Financial contract feature sets:
 Prepayment risk
 European/American-style option execution
 Fractional reserves
 Accounting: deferred payment, installment
sale? Revenue recognition, liability?
 Loan: each peer node (LN) registers a loan
 Legal: assignments of claims, forward-
looking IOUs?
26
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: Level 2
 Small group concatenated payments example
 Local bar: Lynn, Chris, Bartender
 Lynn has a $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $6
 Chris has a $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $5
 Lynn and Chris play pool, Chris owes Lynn $5
 Current method (gross settlement): each party settles with
each other (3 tx, $16 gross flow)
 New method (net settlement): (2 tx, $11 gross flow)
 Already see implication if less money transfers, more is available
27
Source: Andreas Antonopoulos
Bartender
A/R
Lynn $6
Chris $5
Lynn
A/R
Chris $5 Bar $6
A/P
$1
Chris
Bar $5
A/P
$10
Lynn $5
$11
Current
Method
Tx1 $6-Lynn
Tx2 $5-Chris
Tx3 $5-Lynn
Payment
Channel
Tx1 $10 C-to-B
Tx2 $1 L-to-B
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: Level 3
 My monthly expenses example
 De facto payment channel
 Inflows into bank account:
 Paycheck direct deposit
 Outflows from bank account:
 Auto-pay bills (fixed and variable)
 Formalized into a multi-party payment
contract netting salary against
expenses, any remainder to Schwab
investment account
 Implication: settling net basis frees capital
 Consider business entities on a net basis
28
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
My monthly expenses
Salary (direct deposit)
DR CR
$xx
Expenses (auto-pay)
Rent (fixed amount)
Car payment (fixed)
Utilities (variable)
Discretionary (variable)
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
Net savings (variable) $xx
$xx
My apartment building
Expected inflows
DR CR
$xx
Expected outflows
Fixed
Variable
Net
$xx
$xx
$xx
My small business
Expected inflows
DR CR
$xx
Expected outflows
Fixed
Variable
Net
$xx
$xx
$xx
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
My supply chain: payment graph economy
 Blockchains: only sub-registers of the cash
account (Alice, Bob, HSBC, etc.), not a full
suite of general ledger accounts
 Property registries use cash-acct ledger structure
 Property registries where UTXOs are assets
 Birth/death registry: one credit tx, one debit tx
 Supply chain finance: for supply chain net
settling, need integrated account ledgers
 Single set of books with multiple views: by supply
chain (new) + by entity (existing)
 Revenue (WMT); COGS (Deere, Adidas)
29
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
My supply chain
Sales Inventory COGS Manufacturing Raw Materials
Cash
Alice
Bob
Carol
Ralph
HSBC
DR CR
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
$xx
Payments trajectory
Goods trajectory
Orthogonal trajectories,
different incentives, behavior
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: Level 4
 “Kevin Bacon” example
 5 hops to transfer funds?
 Large-scale multi-hop payment graph
 Scalability of 1:1 payment channels?
 Do users really want to be peer hosts?
 Single-escrow commits (deposit > use)
 Confirmation, timing, max flow, fees
Either
1. Every node is a peer banker
 Wallet is permissioned to clear transactions
2. Lightning network hubs or payment
gateways
30
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment Channels: Level 5
 “Mike Hearn” example
 Farther-future possibility of auto-instantiating
self-driving cars and other smart network
resources
 Smart network instantiates banking
services directly (sensing network
demand, auto-instantiates, provides
services, retires when necessary)
 Network node does not need to be
human-backed (technically)
 Historically-vested grounding of roles,
responsibilities, taxation in legal personhood
31
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Implications
 With money and payments digitized, and activity
being securely forward-committed by payment
contracts, the implication is that net flows instead of
gross flows might be transferred
 An economy based on net clearings rather than gross
transfers could mean more activity and less debt
 Rethink Debt
 Streaming money (Antonopoulos) could be disgorged in
much smaller chunks that are more closely tied to costs and
repayment possibilities
 Challenge: how to construct net rather than gross
obligations for home mortgage, student loan, public works
projects, bond offerings?
32
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Modes of consumption: pre-pay vs post-pay
 Rethink modes of consumption: pre-pay vs post-pay
 Pre-paid consumption (a small part of current overall
economic activity) against the much larger portion of activity
that is post-paid and based on credit and terms
 Two-thirds of the economy tied up in supply chain finance
 Incentive is to play the float; instead, incentive to net out
 Digitized streaming money and payment channels could be
techniques to quicken the 30-60-90 day terms and
uncollectible debt problem in supply chain finance, and
facilitate a just-in-time economy for money
33
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Existing payment graph
Ripple Credit Network
 Highly-interoperable transactions
 Cross-border fiat remittance
 Cryptocurrency exchange
 User-defined currencies
 Integrated payment methods: Alipay, Paypal, Bitcoin, USD
 Extensive wallet functionality
 Access cash
 Access credit
 Issue credit
 Operating 5 years (Data for 1/13-12/16)
 99,413 wallets; 246,672 credit links; 27,406,877 tx
 12/50 world top banks, open network, consensus via
validators (55); transaction blocks each 4 seconds
34
Source: Moreno-Sanchez et al., 2016, 2017
Credit ripples across network links
(path-routing like Internet packets)
Avg 1-3 wallets betw send-rcv
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Ripple Credit Network
 Weighted directed payment graph of
IOU credit links
 Credit graph
 Vertices: wallets (wallet balances; 1, 2)
 Edges: credit links (between 1,2; 2,3)
35
Source: Moreno-Sanchez et al., 2016, 2017
Example: Dave pays $50 to Eve
W2
W1 W3
E1,2
E2,3
E3,1
Transaction ripples through network
“Payment” = payment or credit extension
{305}
Concept: open credit links between parties in game-theoretic network
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
“Ripple for ERP”
 Integrated supply chain ledgers
 Open permissioned links in corporate accounting software
for trade partners to post to each other’s ledgers
 Impact: allow net-clearing of accounts, thereby reducing
supply chain debt up to 95%
 Supply chain finance
 $3.9 tn working capital tied up in global supply chains
 $1.5 tn global trade finance gap (trade finance transactions
rejected by banks but needed for global distribution)
 Blockchain cloud services & big 4 accounting
 IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP; PWC, Deloitte, E&Y, KPMG
 Hosted full suite of cross-ledger account-level posting
36
Source: Swan, M. in review, European Financial Review
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Payment graphs
Next step in Automatic Markets progression
 Existing
 High-frequency trading (HFT) / algorithmic trading
 Real-time bidding (RTB) markets for advertising
 Global energy trading
 Production, storage, and transmission
 Distributed energy management systems
 Next
 Banking and finance
 Ripple: 27 million transactions (1/13-12/16)
 DFINITY: automated commercial loan approval
 Facebook payments: social graph becomes payment graph
37
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Conclusion
 Use these concepts and tools to solve a larger
class of economic problems like debt
 Economic incentive counter to outcome
 Supply chain: play the float
 Maximization not price rationalization in health care
 Entitlements (payment channel for social security?)
 Income inequality, digital divide
 Automation economy, technological unemployment
 Have to own investment assets
 Saas (securities as a service): access to consumable
benefits of an asset without having to own the underlying
(Spotify, Hulu, Uber, Airbnb)
38
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Resources
39
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Recent Publications
 Themes (ontological, epistemological, axiological)
 Mathematical models for understanding reality
 Challenges naming and orchestrating virtual world naming
entities and their physical analogs
 Sociopolitical institutions such as money and property
 Moral obligations of software developers
40
Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109
 Blockchain Philosophy  Blockchain Economics
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Economics Book chapter CFP
 4,000 words chapters due Mar 1, 2018 to
m@melanieswan.com
41
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/CFP_Blockchain_Economics.pdf
Publisher
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain DLT Standards bodies:
Ledgers on distributed computing networks
 FASB: Emerging Issues Task Force (BC GAAP)
 IETF: Distributed Networking IRTF.org
 Payment Standards
 W3C Web Payment Interest Group
 International Payments Framework Assn
 Center for Financial Services Innovation Network
 IC3: Initiative for Cryptocurrencies and Contracts
 IBM Blockchain Technology – Hyperledger
 Microsoft Blockchain Technology – Azure BaaS
 Amazon AWS Blockchain Technology – Dig Curr Gp
 R3 Corda Blockchain Technology
42
Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
Desert Blockchain, Grand Canyon University
November 11, 2017
Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga
Blockchain Economics:
Payment Channels
Melanie Swan
Philosophy, Purdue University
melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Practical Opportunities
44
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Low-hanging Fruit
 Information confirmation, not
monetary transfer:
1. Cryptographic asset registries
2. Investor information services
3. Supply chain, logistics
4. CRM, Business Logic
5. Energy quoting, transmission
 Automate administrative steps
45
Stock Transaction
Real Estate Purchase/Sale
Health Insurance Billing
Steps that can be automated with blockchain
Steps with human decision-making
Energy Contract
Supply Chain Shipment
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Cryptographic Registries
 Asset Registries
 Land, auto, home titles
 Stocks, bonds, insurance
 Sales quotes, RFP
 Public Documents
 Driver’s license, permit
 Business registration
 Regulatory & QA compliance
 Diploma, credential
 Passport, identity document
 Voter registration, census
 Birth and death certificates
46
Illinois,
Arizona,
Delaware,
Idaho
Finland,
Dubai,
Georgia,
Estonia,
Sweden,
Denmark
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Strategies
Opportunity: Leadership Edge
 Start or join industry consortium
 Implement digital ledgers
 Automate transfer of money, assets, bids,
quotes, RFPs, ERP, supply chain
 Value chain process mapping
 Revenue-generating
 Offer blockchain-based services to clients
 Example: banks targeting larger customer base
through blockchain-based eWallet solutions
 Cost-saving
 Finance, treasury, accounting, GL/AR/AP
 Quality assurance, regulation, compliance,
audit functions
47
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Blockchain Economic Theory
48
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
What is Economics?
 Study of the production, distribution, and
consumption of goods and services
 Individual and group decision-making about
goods and services and the consequences
 Fundamental dynamics do not change
 Wants are bigger than resources, cost of
decision-making, opportunity cost, scarcity
(material or intangible)
 Same in all forms of economies
 Classical Economics (material goods)
 Network Economics (digital goods)
 Smart Network Economics (automated smart
contracts exchanging cryptographic assets)
49
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Economics: Basic Design Principles
50
Economic Principles
 Traditional Deployment
 Markets
 Blockchain Deployment
 Any interaction is a discovery
and exchange process
 Abundance mindset and
overcoming scarcity
 Decentralized models
supplement hierarchy
 Demurrage incitatory potential
and resource redistribution
across network nodes
 Reciprocal mining communities
Blockchain technology is
prompting us to rethink
economic principles in markets,
and apply them much more
extensibly to other situations in
a non-monetary sense
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Reinventing Economics and Government
51
 Long Tail premise
 80/20 rule false in digital markets
 Sell less quantity of more items
 Look at the long tail as a market itself
Source: Anderson; Brynjolfsson; Elberse
Long Tail Effect
2006
 Analysis (Brynjolfsson et al., 2006, 2010)
 Amazon: niche books account for 36.7% of sales
 Power laws not Pareto distributions in etailing (books,
music), software downloads (70/30 not 80/20)
 Critique (Elberse, 2008)
 Pareto distribution not power laws in some markets
 Evolving market: feedback effect of online reviews
 Key point: personal preference markets work
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Long Tail Financial & Government Services
 One size does not fit all
 Any two parties can meet and transact on a blockchain
52
Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
One size
fits all
Personalized
Long Tail Systems
 Long Tail financial services
 “Amazon or eBay of money”
 Personalized banking, credit,
mortgages, securities
 Long Tail governance services
 “Amazon or eBay of government”
 Personalized governance
services, pay for consumption
Rethink debt with
small-chunk capital
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Economics and Finance
53
Cryptocurrencies:
Spot Market
Smart Contracts:
Futures & Options
Market
 Systems for organizing access to resources
Economics FinancePast, Present Future
Time
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Hayek: Financial Institution Currencies
54
“Multiple private currencies should
compete for customer business”
- Friedrich Hayek
Source: Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased); https://www.statista.com/topics/1552/banks-in-china
Tier 1 Capital: equity capital + disclosed reserves (measure of banking strength)
Top Global Banks based on Tier 1 Capital (2014) Top Investment Banks
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
New Economic World Order
55
Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order
 Not just cryptofinance, every company own coin issue
 Cryptocurrencies and storage, banking, healthcare, financial
services, technology platforms, fundraising firms
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Securities as a Service
56
Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service,
http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html
CD, DVD
Streaming Music and
Video Services
Entertainment as
a Service
Asset
Service
Auto, Home
Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno,
Via; Airbnb, VRBO
HomeAway
Transportation,
Domicile as a Service
Securities
Securities as
a Service
 Securities a Service
 Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets
 Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning
 Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability
 Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself
Consumable benefits of
securities: cash flow,
appreciation
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Future of Institutions
57
Historical Contemporary Future
Church Crown
DMV
Law
Bank Government Police
Healthcare Academia
Corporation Church
Data pillars: library of all
society’s memory and
public records
Building - Website
Columbus’s VCs: Ferdinand
and Isabella
Building – Website – CredentialBuilding
Farther Future
 Role: organize life and manage contention
 Influence persists but more choice about belonging
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Future of Nation States
 Regulatory Arbitrage and
Crypto-Specialization
 DE-based C corporations
 Swiss & Cayman banking laws
 Estonia eResidency Program
 Gibraltar DLT Registered Entities
(ICO response)
 Malta online casinos & Bitcoin
 Transnational boundaries
 ICANN & decentralized DNS/ENS
 Namecoin (.bit domains)
 Ether (.eth domains)
 Human Rights, Refugees
58
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Economic Theory
 Production, distribution, and consumption of goods
and services in a Blockchain Economy…
 Same as a Classical Economy
 Underlying dynamics do not change: wants outweigh
resources, cost to decisions, scarcity of valued resources
 Institutions, Money, Nation States persist, change in form
 Assets, identity, & information now become cryptographic
 Different than a Classical Economy
 Hybrid economy of human and computational agents
 Leapfrog technology: financial inclusion and rethink debt
 New economic design principles: long tail, decentralization,
assets as a service, smart contracts
59
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Blockchain Economic Theory
60
Elements of Economic Theory Not
Changing
Changing
Basic Definition
Production, distribution, consumption of goods and services X
Individual and group decision-making and consequences X
Wants exceed resources, opportunity cost, scarcity X
Shift: material goods to intangible goods and services X
Employment
Technological Unemployment (Automation Economy) X
Multi-Agent Economy (Computational Agents) X
Institutions and Nation States
Role and Influence X
Form and Choice about Joining X
Money, Capital, and Debt
Importance and Role X
Form and Access X
Principles
Long Tail Markets (Personalized Services) X
Decentralization/Financial Inclusion X
Drivers: Regulation and Technology Adoption X
Time Frame Focus: Present to Future X
Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Agenda
 Conclusion
61
11 Nov 2017
Blockchain
Conclusion
 Blockchain is a fundamental information technology for
secure value transfer over networks
 Internet of value; ledger running on a distributed computing
network
 Institutional investor demand for cryptographic asset
class regulated products
 Payment channels: an automated contractual
arrangement can support aggregate consumption
 Deep learning chains: new form of automated global
infrastructure, smart network
 Identify (deep learning)
 Validate, confirm, and route transactions (blockchain)
62

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Blockchain Payment Channels Explained

  • 1. Desert Blockchain, Grand Canyon University November 11, 2017 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics: Payment Channels Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
  • 2. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain 1 Melanie Swan, Technology Theorist  Philosophy and Economic Theory, Purdue University, Indiana, USA  Founder, Institute for Blockchain Studies  Singularity University Instructor; Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology Affiliate Scholar; EDGE Essayist; FQXi Advisor Traditional Markets Background Economics and Financial Theory Leadership New Economies research group Source: http://www.melanieswan.com, http://blockchainstudies.org/NSNE.pdf, http://blockchainstudies.org/Metaphilosophy_CFP.pdf https://www.facebook.com/groups/NewEconomies
  • 3. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain 2 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491  To inspire us to build this world
  • 4. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain 3 Mindset of Innovation What is the Killer App of Blockchain? Netscape makes the web browsable (1995) Google makes the web searchable (1999) ??? ? makes the blockchain indispensable (2xxx)
  • 5. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain 4 Source: http://web.stanford.edu/~buenz/pubs/bulletproofs.pdf Stanford, Nov 4-5, 2017  Privacy: confidential transactions (zk proofs+)  “Bulletproofs” efficient range proofs (efficient: proof size is logarithmic in the witness size; range: x-y) (Bunz)  Payment channel SLAs, guarantees  Multiple simultaneous transactions  Multiple simultaneous channels  Scalability  FlyClient (thin-SPV client (most recent not full list of header hashes)), BlockSci (agnostic chain explorer platform), Graphene (IBFT block propagation)  Cryptography  EC-DSA, Schnorr signatures, quantum cryptography  Smart contracts, payment channels for Ethereum Cancun, Nov 1-4, 2017
  • 6. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Agenda  Market Update  Payment Channels 5
  • 7. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Investing 6 Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-bitcoin-continues-to-be-on-the-top-of-its-game
  • 8. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain ICOs = “crypto-daytrading”?  $3.5 bn cumulative ICO funding (Coindesk)  ICOs surpass VC funding (PitchBook)  ICOs: $3.5 bn, VC funding: $2.7 bn (2/14-10/17)  Tokens: many functions beyond fundraising  Voting, dividends, access, participation, notification 7 Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://pitchbook.com/news/reports/3q-2017-fintech-analyst-note-blockchain Cumulative ICO Funding 2/3/14 - 10/31/17
  • 9. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain ICO Regulatory Stance  US: investor protection; regulated (Jul 2017)  ICOs and exchanges; what about smart contracts?  ICOs vs token sales (network utility) vs crowdfunding  Howey Test: is it a security? 1. Investment of money 2. Expectation of profits from the investment 3. The investment of money is in a common enterprise 4. Any profit comes from the efforts of a promoter or third party  International Climate  UK: caveat emptor; safer if regulated, not regulated  China: banned, exchanges ordered to close (Sep 2017)  Russia: regulation expected by end 2017 (Sep 2017)  Reg Arb: Gibraltar DLT Regulated Entities (2018e) 8 Source: https://www.coindesk.com/ico-tracker, https://www.coindesk.com/china-outlaws-icos-financial-regulators-order-halt-token- trading/
  • 10. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Cryptocurrency Market Capitalizations (11/17) 9 Source: https://coinmarketcap.com, http://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500; List of countries by GDP (nominal) - Wikipedia  S&P 500: $22.2 tn; US GDP $18.8 tn  Crypto market cap: $200 bn (≃ top 50th of 200 countries)
  • 11. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Regulated Futures & Options 1. LedgerX Options  Cleared $1m (week 1), $2m (week 2)  NY-based CFTC-regulated Swap Execution Facility (SEF) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO)  Swap execution facility, clearing Bitcoin options  Sep 2017 began providing physically-settled put and call options and day-ahead swaps trading  Private trading for large customers 10 Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-24/bitcoin-options-to-become-available-in-fall-after-cftc-approval
  • 12. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Regulated Futures & Options 2. CME Bitcoin futures contracts – 4Q17e  Cash-settled  Settlement based on CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR), launched in November 2016 with London-based Crypto Facilities trading platform 3. CBOE Bitcoin futures contracts - 1Q18e  Cash-settled, pending CFTC review  Settlement based on Gemini Trust data  Significance: cryptocurrency exposure in an institutional product, demand could be huge 11 Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/31/cme-plans-to-launch-bitcoin-futures-by-year-end.html
  • 13. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Institutional Markets  Exposure to cryptographic assets  Asset class current value: $200 billion  Estimated value in 10 years: $2 trillion  Demand for regulated products  Dark pools (institutional exchanges for Contracts-for-Difference, private trading, block trades; $20m+)  Genesis Trading, Cumberland Mining, Circle, Gemini Exchange, Project Omni  Regulated Futures and Options  LedgerX, CME, CBOE  Regulated ICOs 12 Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order, https://www.coindesk.com/standpoint-founder-bitcoin-asset-class-will-grow-2-trillion-market/
  • 14. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Private Chains: zk proofs  Monero  Z-Cash  Dash  Aeon  Pivx  Kimodo 13 Live connection to Coinbase (1% fee)
  • 15. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Privacy Pendulum: Swinging back to more privacy 14  Historically: lots of privacy; Surveillance era: strange logic of few bad apples so insecure surveillance of all; centralized (Equifax) cybersecurity does not work  Future era: swing back to privacy; restore checks & balances Institutionally- specified Reality Self-determined Reality More Privacy
  • 16. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Social Theory of Blockchain Bigger stakes: Societal Structure 15  Privacy is merely the first battle  Internet failed to include privacy Societal Structure Privacy Tension Impact
  • 17. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Crypto-enlightenment 16 “Multiple private currencies should compete for customer business” - Friedrich Hayek “One ought to think autonomously, free of the dictates of external authority” - Immanuel Kant  Economics and Government Source: Kant, I. "Answering the Question: What Is Enlightenment?" (German: Beantwortung der Frage: Was ist Aufklärung?). 1784. Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased)
  • 18. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Agenda  Market Update  Payment Channels 17 Blockchain Economics & Finance
  • 19. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Distributed Networks 18 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 Decentralized (based on hubs) Centralized Distributed (based on peers)  Radical implication: every node is a peer who can provide services to other peers
  • 20. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain P2P Network Nodes provide services 19 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 Centralized bank tracks payments between clients “Classic” Banking Peer Banking  Nodes deliver services to others, for a small fee  Transaction ledger hosting (~10,000 Bitcoind nodes)  Transaction confirmation and logging (mining)  News services (“decentralized Reddit”: Steemit, Yours)  Banking services (payment channels (netting offsets)) Network nodes store transaction record settled by many individuals
  • 21. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain 4.9 bn global mobile users (65% world) 20 Source: https://wearesocial-net.s3.amazonaws.com/uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/01/Slide007.png  Era of digital services  Computationally-based society has less need for a brick-and- mortar institutional footprint  Are we ready? Is a bloom filter a worse version of a FICO score (e.g. a black box determining my life over which I have no say)?
  • 22. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Bottom-up Finance: La Plataforma 21 Source: http://www.laplataformalatam.com/#nosotros
  • 23. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: the concept 1. Network is a graph (vertices, edges)  Payment, credit, transaction graph 2. Net clearing  Contracts-for-difference (CFD); (without the 10x options-style leverage of the financial instrument)  Spread betting  Net settlement (vs Gross settlement)  Central banks clear amongst themselves with RTGS (real-time gross settlement) systems (as does Ripple)  Industry consortia, interbank daily settlements are tabulated on a net basis 3. “Have an account,” “run-a-tab” economy 22
  • 24. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain What is a Payment Channel?  3-step financial contract executed over time 1. One party opens a payment channel with another party and posts a pre-payment escrow balance 2. The party consumes against this credit over the given time period (activity is tracked) 3. At the end of the period, cumulative activity is booked in one net transaction to close the contract 23 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 25. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain What is a Payment Channel?  Motivation  Improve scalability through contractually-obligated relationships booked as periodic net activity  Micropayments mechanism for video bandwidth consumption where piecemeal transactions do not make sense  Current ~$250 max (4% Btc) for Lightning Payment channels  Bigger implication  Might develop into a digitized payment system for resource consumption that settles based on net payments instead of gross transfers, and enables peer-to-peer banking services  Sophisticated functionality  Concatenated payment channels, time/signature lock parameters (CheckLockTimeVerify, CheckSequenceVerify) 24 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 26. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: Level 1  Starbucks Example 1. Customer opens $50 monthly payment channel with Starbucks 2. Daily coffee consumed is tracked and booked against the $50 credit 3. Activity is netted at the end of the month. Contracts close and roll over at regular intervals. Either party may close the channel early, trigger net settlement  SBUX: payment channel prototype  Loyalty program (cards & apps): 41% purchases, $1.2 bn obligations 25 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market SBUX Balance Sheet Assets Cash $1.2bn Liabilities Stored Value Cards $1.2bn
  • 27. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Accounting and Legal Treatment?  Promise of cryptocurrencies as “programmable money” in implementation  A contingent three-part financial contract over time is a new instrument  Financial contract feature sets:  Prepayment risk  European/American-style option execution  Fractional reserves  Accounting: deferred payment, installment sale? Revenue recognition, liability?  Loan: each peer node (LN) registers a loan  Legal: assignments of claims, forward- looking IOUs? 26 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 28. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: Level 2  Small group concatenated payments example  Local bar: Lynn, Chris, Bartender  Lynn has a $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $6  Chris has a $10 tab with bartender, has consumed $5  Lynn and Chris play pool, Chris owes Lynn $5  Current method (gross settlement): each party settles with each other (3 tx, $16 gross flow)  New method (net settlement): (2 tx, $11 gross flow)  Already see implication if less money transfers, more is available 27 Source: Andreas Antonopoulos Bartender A/R Lynn $6 Chris $5 Lynn A/R Chris $5 Bar $6 A/P $1 Chris Bar $5 A/P $10 Lynn $5 $11 Current Method Tx1 $6-Lynn Tx2 $5-Chris Tx3 $5-Lynn Payment Channel Tx1 $10 C-to-B Tx2 $1 L-to-B
  • 29. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: Level 3  My monthly expenses example  De facto payment channel  Inflows into bank account:  Paycheck direct deposit  Outflows from bank account:  Auto-pay bills (fixed and variable)  Formalized into a multi-party payment contract netting salary against expenses, any remainder to Schwab investment account  Implication: settling net basis frees capital  Consider business entities on a net basis 28 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market My monthly expenses Salary (direct deposit) DR CR $xx Expenses (auto-pay) Rent (fixed amount) Car payment (fixed) Utilities (variable) Discretionary (variable) $xx $xx $xx $xx Net savings (variable) $xx $xx My apartment building Expected inflows DR CR $xx Expected outflows Fixed Variable Net $xx $xx $xx My small business Expected inflows DR CR $xx Expected outflows Fixed Variable Net $xx $xx $xx
  • 30. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain My supply chain: payment graph economy  Blockchains: only sub-registers of the cash account (Alice, Bob, HSBC, etc.), not a full suite of general ledger accounts  Property registries use cash-acct ledger structure  Property registries where UTXOs are assets  Birth/death registry: one credit tx, one debit tx  Supply chain finance: for supply chain net settling, need integrated account ledgers  Single set of books with multiple views: by supply chain (new) + by entity (existing)  Revenue (WMT); COGS (Deere, Adidas) 29 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market My supply chain Sales Inventory COGS Manufacturing Raw Materials Cash Alice Bob Carol Ralph HSBC DR CR $xx $xx $xx $xx $xx Payments trajectory Goods trajectory Orthogonal trajectories, different incentives, behavior
  • 31. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: Level 4  “Kevin Bacon” example  5 hops to transfer funds?  Large-scale multi-hop payment graph  Scalability of 1:1 payment channels?  Do users really want to be peer hosts?  Single-escrow commits (deposit > use)  Confirmation, timing, max flow, fees Either 1. Every node is a peer banker  Wallet is permissioned to clear transactions 2. Lightning network hubs or payment gateways 30 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 32. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment Channels: Level 5  “Mike Hearn” example  Farther-future possibility of auto-instantiating self-driving cars and other smart network resources  Smart network instantiates banking services directly (sensing network demand, auto-instantiates, provides services, retires when necessary)  Network node does not need to be human-backed (technically)  Historically-vested grounding of roles, responsibilities, taxation in legal personhood 31 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 33. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Implications  With money and payments digitized, and activity being securely forward-committed by payment contracts, the implication is that net flows instead of gross flows might be transferred  An economy based on net clearings rather than gross transfers could mean more activity and less debt  Rethink Debt  Streaming money (Antonopoulos) could be disgorged in much smaller chunks that are more closely tied to costs and repayment possibilities  Challenge: how to construct net rather than gross obligations for home mortgage, student loan, public works projects, bond offerings? 32 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 34. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Modes of consumption: pre-pay vs post-pay  Rethink modes of consumption: pre-pay vs post-pay  Pre-paid consumption (a small part of current overall economic activity) against the much larger portion of activity that is post-paid and based on credit and terms  Two-thirds of the economy tied up in supply chain finance  Incentive is to play the float; instead, incentive to net out  Digitized streaming money and payment channels could be techniques to quicken the 30-60-90 day terms and uncollectible debt problem in supply chain finance, and facilitate a just-in-time economy for money 33 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 35. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Existing payment graph Ripple Credit Network  Highly-interoperable transactions  Cross-border fiat remittance  Cryptocurrency exchange  User-defined currencies  Integrated payment methods: Alipay, Paypal, Bitcoin, USD  Extensive wallet functionality  Access cash  Access credit  Issue credit  Operating 5 years (Data for 1/13-12/16)  99,413 wallets; 246,672 credit links; 27,406,877 tx  12/50 world top banks, open network, consensus via validators (55); transaction blocks each 4 seconds 34 Source: Moreno-Sanchez et al., 2016, 2017 Credit ripples across network links (path-routing like Internet packets) Avg 1-3 wallets betw send-rcv
  • 36. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Ripple Credit Network  Weighted directed payment graph of IOU credit links  Credit graph  Vertices: wallets (wallet balances; 1, 2)  Edges: credit links (between 1,2; 2,3) 35 Source: Moreno-Sanchez et al., 2016, 2017 Example: Dave pays $50 to Eve W2 W1 W3 E1,2 E2,3 E3,1 Transaction ripples through network “Payment” = payment or credit extension {305} Concept: open credit links between parties in game-theoretic network
  • 37. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain “Ripple for ERP”  Integrated supply chain ledgers  Open permissioned links in corporate accounting software for trade partners to post to each other’s ledgers  Impact: allow net-clearing of accounts, thereby reducing supply chain debt up to 95%  Supply chain finance  $3.9 tn working capital tied up in global supply chains  $1.5 tn global trade finance gap (trade finance transactions rejected by banks but needed for global distribution)  Blockchain cloud services & big 4 accounting  IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, SAP; PWC, Deloitte, E&Y, KPMG  Hosted full suite of cross-ledger account-level posting 36 Source: Swan, M. in review, European Financial Review
  • 38. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Payment graphs Next step in Automatic Markets progression  Existing  High-frequency trading (HFT) / algorithmic trading  Real-time bidding (RTB) markets for advertising  Global energy trading  Production, storage, and transmission  Distributed energy management systems  Next  Banking and finance  Ripple: 27 million transactions (1/13-12/16)  DFINITY: automated commercial loan approval  Facebook payments: social graph becomes payment graph 37 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 39. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Conclusion  Use these concepts and tools to solve a larger class of economic problems like debt  Economic incentive counter to outcome  Supply chain: play the float  Maximization not price rationalization in health care  Entitlements (payment channel for social security?)  Income inequality, digital divide  Automation economy, technological unemployment  Have to own investment assets  Saas (securities as a service): access to consumable benefits of an asset without having to own the underlying (Spotify, Hulu, Uber, Airbnb) 38 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 41. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Recent Publications  Themes (ontological, epistemological, axiological)  Mathematical models for understanding reality  Challenges naming and orchestrating virtual world naming entities and their physical analogs  Sociopolitical institutions such as money and property  Moral obligations of software developers 40 Source: http://timreview.ca/article/1109  Blockchain Philosophy  Blockchain Economics
  • 42. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Economics Book chapter CFP  4,000 words chapters due Mar 1, 2018 to m@melanieswan.com 41 Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/CFP_Blockchain_Economics.pdf Publisher
  • 43. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain DLT Standards bodies: Ledgers on distributed computing networks  FASB: Emerging Issues Task Force (BC GAAP)  IETF: Distributed Networking IRTF.org  Payment Standards  W3C Web Payment Interest Group  International Payments Framework Assn  Center for Financial Services Innovation Network  IC3: Initiative for Cryptocurrencies and Contracts  IBM Blockchain Technology – Hyperledger  Microsoft Blockchain Technology – Azure BaaS  Amazon AWS Blockchain Technology – Dig Curr Gp  R3 Corda Blockchain Technology 42 Source: https://www.psmarketresearch.com/market-analysis/personal-robot-market
  • 44. Desert Blockchain, Grand Canyon University November 11, 2017 Slides: http://slideshare.net/LaBlogga Blockchain Economics: Payment Channels Melanie Swan Philosophy, Purdue University melanie@BlockchainStudies.org
  • 45. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Agenda  Practical Opportunities 44
  • 46. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Low-hanging Fruit  Information confirmation, not monetary transfer: 1. Cryptographic asset registries 2. Investor information services 3. Supply chain, logistics 4. CRM, Business Logic 5. Energy quoting, transmission  Automate administrative steps 45 Stock Transaction Real Estate Purchase/Sale Health Insurance Billing Steps that can be automated with blockchain Steps with human decision-making Energy Contract Supply Chain Shipment
  • 47. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Cryptographic Registries  Asset Registries  Land, auto, home titles  Stocks, bonds, insurance  Sales quotes, RFP  Public Documents  Driver’s license, permit  Business registration  Regulatory & QA compliance  Diploma, credential  Passport, identity document  Voter registration, census  Birth and death certificates 46 Illinois, Arizona, Delaware, Idaho Finland, Dubai, Georgia, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark
  • 48. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Strategies Opportunity: Leadership Edge  Start or join industry consortium  Implement digital ledgers  Automate transfer of money, assets, bids, quotes, RFPs, ERP, supply chain  Value chain process mapping  Revenue-generating  Offer blockchain-based services to clients  Example: banks targeting larger customer base through blockchain-based eWallet solutions  Cost-saving  Finance, treasury, accounting, GL/AR/AP  Quality assurance, regulation, compliance, audit functions 47 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491
  • 49. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Agenda  Blockchain Economic Theory 48
  • 50. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain What is Economics?  Study of the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services  Individual and group decision-making about goods and services and the consequences  Fundamental dynamics do not change  Wants are bigger than resources, cost of decision-making, opportunity cost, scarcity (material or intangible)  Same in all forms of economies  Classical Economics (material goods)  Network Economics (digital goods)  Smart Network Economics (automated smart contracts exchanging cryptographic assets) 49 Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 51. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Economics: Basic Design Principles 50 Economic Principles  Traditional Deployment  Markets  Blockchain Deployment  Any interaction is a discovery and exchange process  Abundance mindset and overcoming scarcity  Decentralized models supplement hierarchy  Demurrage incitatory potential and resource redistribution across network nodes  Reciprocal mining communities Blockchain technology is prompting us to rethink economic principles in markets, and apply them much more extensibly to other situations in a non-monetary sense
  • 52. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Reinventing Economics and Government 51  Long Tail premise  80/20 rule false in digital markets  Sell less quantity of more items  Look at the long tail as a market itself Source: Anderson; Brynjolfsson; Elberse Long Tail Effect 2006  Analysis (Brynjolfsson et al., 2006, 2010)  Amazon: niche books account for 36.7% of sales  Power laws not Pareto distributions in etailing (books, music), software downloads (70/30 not 80/20)  Critique (Elberse, 2008)  Pareto distribution not power laws in some markets  Evolving market: feedback effect of online reviews  Key point: personal preference markets work
  • 53. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Long Tail Financial & Government Services  One size does not fit all  Any two parties can meet and transact on a blockchain 52 Source: http://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Blueprint-New-World-Currency/dp/1491920491 One size fits all Personalized Long Tail Systems  Long Tail financial services  “Amazon or eBay of money”  Personalized banking, credit, mortgages, securities  Long Tail governance services  “Amazon or eBay of government”  Personalized governance services, pay for consumption Rethink debt with small-chunk capital
  • 54. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Economics and Finance 53 Cryptocurrencies: Spot Market Smart Contracts: Futures & Options Market  Systems for organizing access to resources Economics FinancePast, Present Future Time
  • 55. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Hayek: Financial Institution Currencies 54 “Multiple private currencies should compete for customer business” - Friedrich Hayek Source: Hayek, F. The De Nationalization of Money. 1976. (paraphrased); https://www.statista.com/topics/1552/banks-in-china Tier 1 Capital: equity capital + disclosed reserves (measure of banking strength) Top Global Banks based on Tier 1 Capital (2014) Top Investment Banks
  • 56. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain New Economic World Order 55 Source: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-blockchain-economy-ushering-new-world-economic-order  Not just cryptofinance, every company own coin issue  Cryptocurrencies and storage, banking, healthcare, financial services, technology platforms, fundraising firms
  • 57. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Securities as a Service 56 Source: Blockchain Fintech: Programmable Risk and Securities as a Service, http://futurememes.blogspot.com/2016/10/blockchain-fintech-programmable-risk.html CD, DVD Streaming Music and Video Services Entertainment as a Service Asset Service Auto, Home Uber, Lyft, Gett, Juno, Via; Airbnb, VRBO HomeAway Transportation, Domicile as a Service Securities Securities as a Service  Securities a Service  Now have to own because uncertain future value of assets  Access to the consumable benefits of the asset without owning  Works if trust consumable assets will have future availability  Need the cash flow the asset provides, not the asset itself Consumable benefits of securities: cash flow, appreciation
  • 58. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Future of Institutions 57 Historical Contemporary Future Church Crown DMV Law Bank Government Police Healthcare Academia Corporation Church Data pillars: library of all society’s memory and public records Building - Website Columbus’s VCs: Ferdinand and Isabella Building – Website – CredentialBuilding Farther Future  Role: organize life and manage contention  Influence persists but more choice about belonging
  • 59. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Future of Nation States  Regulatory Arbitrage and Crypto-Specialization  DE-based C corporations  Swiss & Cayman banking laws  Estonia eResidency Program  Gibraltar DLT Registered Entities (ICO response)  Malta online casinos & Bitcoin  Transnational boundaries  ICANN & decentralized DNS/ENS  Namecoin (.bit domains)  Ether (.eth domains)  Human Rights, Refugees 58
  • 60. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Economic Theory  Production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services in a Blockchain Economy…  Same as a Classical Economy  Underlying dynamics do not change: wants outweigh resources, cost to decisions, scarcity of valued resources  Institutions, Money, Nation States persist, change in form  Assets, identity, & information now become cryptographic  Different than a Classical Economy  Hybrid economy of human and computational agents  Leapfrog technology: financial inclusion and rethink debt  New economic design principles: long tail, decentralization, assets as a service, smart contracts 59 Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 61. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Blockchain Economic Theory 60 Elements of Economic Theory Not Changing Changing Basic Definition Production, distribution, consumption of goods and services X Individual and group decision-making and consequences X Wants exceed resources, opportunity cost, scarcity X Shift: material goods to intangible goods and services X Employment Technological Unemployment (Automation Economy) X Multi-Agent Economy (Computational Agents) X Institutions and Nation States Role and Influence X Form and Choice about Joining X Money, Capital, and Debt Importance and Role X Form and Access X Principles Long Tail Markets (Personalized Services) X Decentralization/Financial Inclusion X Drivers: Regulation and Technology Adoption X Time Frame Focus: Present to Future X Source: http://blockchainstudies.org/Blockchain_Economics_CFP.pdf
  • 63. 11 Nov 2017 Blockchain Conclusion  Blockchain is a fundamental information technology for secure value transfer over networks  Internet of value; ledger running on a distributed computing network  Institutional investor demand for cryptographic asset class regulated products  Payment channels: an automated contractual arrangement can support aggregate consumption  Deep learning chains: new form of automated global infrastructure, smart network  Identify (deep learning)  Validate, confirm, and route transactions (blockchain) 62