BEYOND
MOORE’S LAW

Oleh Sniezko and Xiaolin Lu




       Broadband
What is this all about?


 One-year-later      status report on the
  mini Fiber Node (mFN) development and
  implementation – presented on NCTA
  Cable Show 2000
 It is all about the Moore’s Law
MOORE’S LAW
                         20
# Components/IC (log2)




                         15


                         10


                         5


                         0
                              60   65          70   75
                                        Year
VALIDATION
                                                                                                             IA-64
                               10M                                                                            (est)
                                                                                                                      1000
                                                                                                       Pentium
# Transistors per chip (log)




                                                                                                                           Performance in MIPS (log)
                                                                                                          II
                                                                                                  Pentium
                                                                                                    Pro
                                                                                             Pentium
                               1M                                                                                     100
                                                                                    80486



                               100K                                         80386
                                                                                                                      10

                                                                    80286

                                                            8086/
                                                            8088
                               10K                                                                                    1
                                                     8085
                                                 8080                                       Legend
                                          8008                                              Chip density
                               1K      4004                                                 MIPS                      .1


                                      1970        1975        1980          1985      1990         1995        2000

                                                                       Year
NCTA Cable99: “HFC Architecture In The Making”




             We’ll see
BEHIND MOORE’S LAW
   Positive Feedback:
                              IC          Software
                        (Transistors)        (Basic)

                             65K           4K lines
        20 Years            7.5M
                                          500K lines
                          (Pentium II)


   Rule of Unlimited:
    “People are really limited by their belief, they limited
    themselves by what they allow themselves to believe is
    possible”                  -- Carver Mead
PHOTONIC
MOORE’S LAW
Photonic Unlimited: Geek’s Mission

                  10K
                          TDM Commercial
                          WDM Commercial
                  1K
                          TDM Research
Capacity (Gb/s)




                          WDM Research
                  100


                   10


                   1


                   0.1
                   1985            1990           1995   2000
                                           Year
POSITIVE TREND
                      DWDM Price Performance
       1400                                                   $350

       1200                                                   $300

       1000                                                   $250




                                                                     $/Gbps/Km
        800                                                   $200
Gbps




        600                                                   $150

        400                                                   $100

        200                                                   $50

          0                                                   $0
              1996   1997   1998       1999     2000   2001
                                Year
                            Capacity     Cost
DWDM IN CABLE
                                  1.5 Xmod    EDFA   DWDM    HHP

                 120                                                         100000



                 100




                                                                                      HHP/Wavelength
                                                                             10000
Cost Decline %




                 80
                                                                             1000

                 60

                                                                             100
                 40


                                                                             10
                 20



                  0                                                          1
                       96    97      98        99       00         01   02


                                             Year
HFC IN THE MAKING


                    HE        FN



Primary   Primary
            Hub
                         HE
 Ring

                    HE         FN




                              Segmentation
                               4X capacity
HFC IN THE MAKING


                          SH                  FN



Primary   Primary
            Hub
                                    SH
 Ring

                          SH                   FN




                       DWDM Transport         Segmentation
                    End-to-end Transparency    4X capacity
MOVING FORWARD

                 SH
                                                   FN
    PH
                              SH
    CMTS

                                                   FN
                 SH


 Simple PH/HE            Flexible and scalable     Reduce actives
  operation and            digital platform          Less maintenance
  provisioning            Simple fiber handling     Increase capacity
 Highly reliable and
                                                     Easy to grow
  efficient networking
LightWire TM

                     SH
                                                                 mFN
                                                      MxN
    PH                                                                     mFN

                                  SH
    CMTS
                                                                 mFN
                                                      MxN

                     SH                                                    mFN




            Passive coax plant with fiber termination/70HHP
                Reduced actives (61%), power consumption, & maintenance
            Increased capacity and flexibility

   Salt Lake Trial, other markets, further migration
520 Miles
                                                 66K HHP




   100% Design Completed, 100% Products Delivered
   131+ Miles (15 K HHP) Construction Completed
       269 mFNs installed, 196 mFNs in service
       28 MuxNodes installed, 21 MuxNodes in service
   Cost structure verified, operation data analysis in
    progress
OXiom
             SH
                                               mFN     mFN
PH
CMTS               SH                S
                                               mFN     mFN
             SH


                                         XTR     XTR   XTR

                                         Spur WDM PON
   Daisy Chaining mFNs
          Distributed optical add/drop
          Reduced fiber management & labor
          Provisioning for growth
Phase 1 mFN Platform
   Fiber Tray




      Spur l        RCV
       DFB
                               H
    Daughter Card
                               L
     Provision for        RF Section
   digital processing
Digital Platform
             SH
                                                                    mFN           mFN
 PH                   Mux
Router               Demux                              S
                                                                    mFN            mFN
             SH
                                          Packetizing
              Ethernet Packets             Demod
                                                                            5     45
                                                             Digital
                                         Processing                        Digitizing
                                                            Filtering


Simplified
  PH/HE           Digital Platform for Target Services                  RF (&MAC)
operation                                                               demarcation
Phase 2 mFN Platform
   Fiber Tray




    XTR     RCV          RCV

                                    H

                                    L
         Digitization
                               RF Section
         Distributed
          processing
Phase 2 mFN Platform
   Fiber Tray




    XTR   RCV          RCV

                                          H

    l Add/Drop        Low-cost ITU        L LED Slicing
      Digitization
                                     RF Section
      Distributed            FP
       processing
Passive Network
          SH
                                                    mFN     mFN
 PH             Mux
Router         Demux                      S
                                                    mFN     mFN
          SH


                                              XTR     XTR   XTR


                                               l Add/Drop

           DWDM and /or TDM PON                Passive Coax
               Digital Platform for TSD
VALUES
               SH
                                                              mFN       mFN
 PH         DWDM            Mux
                                     3 fiber

Router    Networking       Demux                    S
                                                              mFN       mFN
               SH
                                     Passive DWDM              Passive Coax

                      Digital Platform for TSD


   Simplified PH/HE          Flexible and scalable       Less actives
    operation and              digital platform            Less maintenance
    provisioning              Simple fiber handling       Increased capacity
   Highly reliable and                                    Easy to grow
    efficient networking
MOORE’S LAW?
                          BW     HHP

          0.6                                    100000



          0.5




                                                          HHP/Wavelength
                                                 10000
MHz/HHP




          0.4
                                                 1000

          0.3

                                                 100
          0.2


                                                 10
          0.1



           0                                     1
                96   97    98          99   00


                          Year
BEYOND
MOORE’S LAW
Today’s Architecture
PSTN
       5ESS
              SONET       PH
                         HDT      DWDM
                                Networking
                                             SH   HFC   mFN
                         CMTS

              Local IP
              Network


Internet                                            NIU
                                                    CM




   Separatevoice and data platforms sharing the same
    HFC network
Transition:                            IP Digital Terminal

PSTN
        5ESS
               SONET              PH

                       IPDT
                                                DWDM
                                                                HFC
                              Router

                                       CMTS
                                              Networking
                                                           SH
                                                                      mFN


               Local IP
               Network


Internet
                                                                BTI



   Integrated voice and data over HFC network
   Utilize 5ESS platform for voice interconnect & features
End-to-
  End-to-End IP Platform
  PSTN
             PSTN
            Gateway        PH
   IP                                    DWDM
                                                         HFC
                       Router

                                CMTS
                                       Networking
                                                    SH
Backbone                                                       mFN


            Local IP
            Network


Internet
                                                         BTI   HPNA



    Cost reduction through common IP infrastructure
    New revenue with emerging IP-based services
    Flexible user interfaces stimulate more creativities
BEYOND MOORE’S LAW
                                          Service
Growth
                                                        Time




                                   Network          Platform
              Time


                 Has Been                  Moving to
    Service          Delivery                Enabling
   Platform     Service specific          Open Interface

   Network    One-dimension pipe Multi-dimension infrastructure
… The wonderful thing about
Moore’s Law is that it is not a
static law; it forces everyone
to live in a dynamic, evolving
world.

               -- Carver Mead
We’ll see

Beyond Moore's Law

  • 1.
    BEYOND MOORE’S LAW Oleh Sniezkoand Xiaolin Lu Broadband
  • 2.
    What is thisall about?  One-year-later status report on the mini Fiber Node (mFN) development and implementation – presented on NCTA Cable Show 2000  It is all about the Moore’s Law
  • 3.
    MOORE’S LAW 20 # Components/IC (log2) 15 10 5 0 60 65 70 75 Year
  • 4.
    VALIDATION IA-64 10M (est) 1000 Pentium # Transistors per chip (log) Performance in MIPS (log) II Pentium Pro Pentium 1M 100 80486 100K 80386 10 80286 8086/ 8088 10K 1 8085 8080 Legend 8008 Chip density 1K 4004 MIPS .1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year
  • 5.
    NCTA Cable99: “HFCArchitecture In The Making” We’ll see
  • 6.
    BEHIND MOORE’S LAW  Positive Feedback: IC Software (Transistors) (Basic) 65K 4K lines 20 Years 7.5M 500K lines (Pentium II)  Rule of Unlimited: “People are really limited by their belief, they limited themselves by what they allow themselves to believe is possible” -- Carver Mead
  • 7.
  • 8.
    Photonic Unlimited: Geek’sMission 10K TDM Commercial WDM Commercial 1K TDM Research Capacity (Gb/s) WDM Research 100 10 1 0.1 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year
  • 9.
    POSITIVE TREND DWDM Price Performance 1400 $350 1200 $300 1000 $250 $/Gbps/Km 800 $200 Gbps 600 $150 400 $100 200 $50 0 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Capacity Cost
  • 10.
    DWDM IN CABLE 1.5 Xmod EDFA DWDM HHP 120 100000 100 HHP/Wavelength 10000 Cost Decline % 80 1000 60 100 40 10 20 0 1 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 Year
  • 11.
    HFC IN THEMAKING HE FN Primary Primary Hub HE Ring HE FN Segmentation 4X capacity
  • 12.
    HFC IN THEMAKING SH FN Primary Primary Hub SH Ring SH FN DWDM Transport Segmentation End-to-end Transparency 4X capacity
  • 13.
    MOVING FORWARD SH FN PH SH CMTS FN SH  Simple PH/HE  Flexible and scalable  Reduce actives operation and digital platform  Less maintenance provisioning  Simple fiber handling  Increase capacity  Highly reliable and  Easy to grow efficient networking
  • 14.
    LightWire TM SH mFN MxN PH mFN SH CMTS mFN MxN SH mFN  Passive coax plant with fiber termination/70HHP  Reduced actives (61%), power consumption, & maintenance  Increased capacity and flexibility  Salt Lake Trial, other markets, further migration
  • 15.
    520 Miles 66K HHP  100% Design Completed, 100% Products Delivered  131+ Miles (15 K HHP) Construction Completed  269 mFNs installed, 196 mFNs in service  28 MuxNodes installed, 21 MuxNodes in service  Cost structure verified, operation data analysis in progress
  • 16.
    OXiom SH mFN mFN PH CMTS SH S mFN mFN SH XTR XTR XTR Spur WDM PON  Daisy Chaining mFNs  Distributed optical add/drop  Reduced fiber management & labor  Provisioning for growth
  • 17.
    Phase 1 mFNPlatform Fiber Tray Spur l RCV DFB H Daughter Card L Provision for RF Section digital processing
  • 18.
    Digital Platform SH mFN mFN PH Mux Router Demux S mFN mFN SH Packetizing Ethernet Packets Demod 5 45 Digital Processing Digitizing Filtering Simplified PH/HE Digital Platform for Target Services RF (&MAC) operation demarcation
  • 19.
    Phase 2 mFNPlatform Fiber Tray XTR RCV RCV H L  Digitization RF Section  Distributed processing
  • 20.
    Phase 2 mFNPlatform Fiber Tray XTR RCV RCV H l Add/Drop Low-cost ITU L LED Slicing  Digitization RF Section  Distributed FP processing
  • 21.
    Passive Network SH mFN mFN PH Mux Router Demux S mFN mFN SH XTR XTR XTR l Add/Drop DWDM and /or TDM PON Passive Coax Digital Platform for TSD
  • 22.
    VALUES SH mFN mFN PH DWDM Mux 3 fiber Router Networking Demux S mFN mFN SH Passive DWDM Passive Coax Digital Platform for TSD  Simplified PH/HE  Flexible and scalable  Less actives operation and digital platform  Less maintenance provisioning  Simple fiber handling  Increased capacity  Highly reliable and  Easy to grow efficient networking
  • 23.
    MOORE’S LAW? BW HHP 0.6 100000 0.5 HHP/Wavelength 10000 MHz/HHP 0.4 1000 0.3 100 0.2 10 0.1 0 1 96 97 98 99 00 Year
  • 24.
  • 25.
    Today’s Architecture PSTN 5ESS SONET PH HDT DWDM Networking SH HFC mFN CMTS Local IP Network Internet NIU CM  Separatevoice and data platforms sharing the same HFC network
  • 26.
    Transition: IP Digital Terminal PSTN 5ESS SONET PH IPDT DWDM HFC Router CMTS Networking SH mFN Local IP Network Internet BTI  Integrated voice and data over HFC network  Utilize 5ESS platform for voice interconnect & features
  • 27.
    End-to- End-to-EndIP Platform PSTN PSTN Gateway PH IP DWDM HFC Router CMTS Networking SH Backbone mFN Local IP Network Internet BTI HPNA  Cost reduction through common IP infrastructure  New revenue with emerging IP-based services  Flexible user interfaces stimulate more creativities
  • 28.
    BEYOND MOORE’S LAW Service Growth Time Network Platform Time Has Been Moving to Service Delivery Enabling Platform Service specific Open Interface Network One-dimension pipe Multi-dimension infrastructure
  • 29.
    … The wonderfulthing about Moore’s Law is that it is not a static law; it forces everyone to live in a dynamic, evolving world. -- Carver Mead
  • 30.

Editor's Notes