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Assessing and Managing
Climate Change Risk
Benjamin L. Preston
DeputyDirector
ClimateChangeScienceInstitute
NAP Expo 2014
8-9 August 2014
UN Campus, Bonn, Germany
2 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
 Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
 Components of climate risk
 Appraisal of adaptation options
 Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
3 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Progress on Adaptation
 Developing Nations
– Planning Mechanisms
 National Adaptation Programmes
of Action (NAPAs)
 National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
– Funding Mechanisms
 Least Developed Countries Climate
Adaptation Fund
 Special Climate Change Fund
 Adaptation Fund
 DevelopedNations
– Extensive national planning
 Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany,
Hungary, the Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, Spain,
United Kingdom
– More extensive sub-national,
local planning
“Adaptation measures that also consider climate changeare being
implemented, on a limited basis, in both developed and developing countries.”
Adger et al. (2007)
“Adaptation to climate change is transitioning from a phase of awareness to
the construction of actual strategies and plans in societies.”
Mimura et al. (2014)
4 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Climate Adaptation is Increasingly being Framed in the
Context of Risk Management
IPCC (2014) WG II, Summary for policymakers; IPCC (2012) SREX, Summary for policymakers
 Hazard– A situation that poses a threat
 Exposure– Presence of people & assets in places that could be adversely affected
 Vulnerability– The propensity to be adversely affected
5 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Entry Pointsfor the Assessment of Climate Risk
 The assessment of climate risk
is a critical process in the
adaptationplanning process
 Extensiveguidance is available
to assist governments in risk
assessment and management
6 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
The Evolution of Climate Risk Management
 Climaterisk management has evolved to include elements beyond
the assessmentof impacts, vulnerability and risk
– Appraisal of adaptation options (i.e., costs & benefits)
– Evaluation of adaptation effectiveness
– Integration of climate risk into management practice and development
Jones and Preston (2011) Adaptation and Risk Management
7 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
 Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
 Components of climate risk
 Appraisal of adaptation options
 Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
8 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
9 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
“recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should
be below 2 degrees Celsius”
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Understanding Hazards – 2oC Target
 The 2oC globaltargetis an entrypoint
for the assessmentof climaterisk
 But, the 2oC globaltargetneeds to be
translatedinto national contexts
 Adaptation to more than2oC (e.g.,
4oC?)may be necessary,requiring
greatereffort
Concerns at 2oC
“Estimated global GHG emissions
levels in 2020 based on the Cancún
Pledges are not consistentwith . .
.mitigation trajectories that . . . limit
temperature change to 2 °C . . .”
IPCC WG III (2014)IPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers
10 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Hazard – Regional Warming Trends
 Mostlandareas are projectedto warmmore rapidlythan
the global meanand therefore exceed2oC more rapidly
IPCC WGII (2014) Regional Context
 Nations face differential
climate hazards
– Coastal regions
– Small islands
– Arid regions
– Arctic regions
 Hazardassessment
requires placed-based
informationon historical
and future climate
conditions
– Extreme weather events are
a key driver of risk
11 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Hazards – Adaptation Planning Tools
 Sources of Knowledge
– Experience, including traditional & local knowledge
– Technical documents (e.g., IPCC assessment reports)
– Weather/climate monitoring & services
– Climate modeling (global & regional)
 Tools
– Climate Scenarios (deterministic & probabilistic; arbitrary & model-based)
– Climate Model Intercomparison Project (U.S. Department of Energy)
– Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank)
– WorldClim – Global Climate Data
– Climate Predictability Tool (IRI)
– FetchClimate (Microsoft)
– Pacific Climate Futures (CSIRO/BOM)
– Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation Tool
Enhancedunderstandingof the
future dynamics of extreme weather
events is a high priority for
adaptation
12 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
13 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Exposure – Key Elements
Distribution
of People &
Assets
Distribution
of Hazards
Exposure
 Temporal Dimension
– Near-term: Day/night dynamics
– Long-term: Migration, development
 Spatial Dimension
– Local: Flood risk, urban heat island
– Regional: Heat wave, drought
Lopez-Carr et al. (2014) A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa
• Ecosystem services
• Infrastructure
• Demography
• Land use
• Storms
• Drought risk
• Flood zones
• Extreme heat events
14 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Exposure – Adaptation Planning Tools
 Sources of Knowledge
– Oral/written histories
– Census surveys
– Geospatial data
– Disaster planning information
 Tools
– Development scenarios
– Global positioning systems
– Remote sensing
– GIS
– Participatory mapping
– Community surveys
15 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
16 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability – Determinants
 Collectively, these factors
influence the likelihood of harmin
the event of exposure to a hazard
 A broadrange of factors can
contribute to vulnerability
– Location
– Sensitivity/fragility
 Physiological (e.g., thermal tolerance)
 Physical (e.g., infrastructure)
– Entitlements to capital
 Financial
 Human
 Social
 Physical
 Natural
– Governance arrangements
 Effectiveness, cooperation
– Social equity
 Class, ethnicity, gender, religion
ccafs.cgiar.org
Felipe Dana ~ Associated Press
17 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability - Constraints & Limits
 Conditions that constrainor limitthe capacity to planand
implement adaptationresponses enhance vulnerability
IPCC (2014) Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
18 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability - Adaptation Planning Tools
 Sources of Knowledge
– Local/traditional knowledge
– Design principles/standards
– Models
– Governance indicators
– Financial/economicanalysis
– Ethnographic studies
 Tools
– Vulnerability indices
– Literature review
– Socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
– Impact modeling (e.g., agricultural, hydrological systems)
– Stakeholder interviews, focus groups, surveys
– Social network analysis
19 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
 Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
 Components of climate risk
 Appraisal of adaptation options
 Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
20 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
Managing Risk through Adaptation
21 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Approachesto Adaptation
Degree of ForesightIPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers
 A wealthof knowledge andinformationexists on potential
adaptationresponses
Coping,
Vulnerability
Reduction, Disaster
Risk Reduction
Incremental
Adaptation
Transformational
Adaptation
ScaleofResponse
Poverty alleviation
Capacity building
Emergency management
New crop varieties
New infrastructure
Expansion of public health services
Migration
Innovation
Shifts in values
22 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Prioritisation of Adaptation Responses
 Theappraisal andevaluation of responses thatare appropriate for
distinctnational circumstances is a currentchallenge
– Cost/BenefitAnalysis
 Established methodology for option appraisal
 Sensitive to assumptions (e.g., discounting of future benefits)
– Life Cycle Analysis
 Consideration for direct and indirect effectsof options
 Cradle-to-grave appraisal
 Long-term fate of some options may be highly uncertain
– Multi-Criteria Analysis
 Appraisal of market and non-market costs and benefits
 Appraisal of trade-offsamong objectives
 Opportunitiesfor stakeholder participation
“. . .a systematic approach to monitoring and evaluation for climate change
adaptation has yet to emerge, and the capacity to undertake such monitoring
and evaluation and incorporateit into adaptation policy is lacking.”
Preston et al. (2011)
23 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
 Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
 Components of climate risk
 Appraisal of adaptation options
 Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
24 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 1)
UKCIP (2003) Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making
25 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 2)
Australian Greenhouse Office(2010) Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management
26 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Building Capacity
 Theissue of capacity for climate risk managementshouldbe
recognised in twodifferentcontexts:
1) Additional capacity is needed to enable rigorous assessment of
vulnerability and risk at the national level
 Access to and evaluation of climate information and data
 Application of different methodological approaches
 Iterative risk assessment as new knowledge emerges
2) Consideration of capacity should be an integral component of the
assessment of climate vulnerability and risk within the NAP process
 Capacity was largely neglected in the National Adaptation Programmes of
Action
27 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Summary
 Climate risk management is evolving withina broader framework
of climate resilient development
 Existing guidance instruments and methods shouldbe
synthesized to informrisk assessmentandmanagementin the
contextof the NAPprocess & the UNFCCC
 Researchers andpractitioners face a number of persistent
challenges:
– Incorporating useful insights regarding climate uncertainty and climate
extremes into adaptation planning
– Developing best practices for the appraisal of adaptation options
– Evaluating the success of adaptation planning and implementation
– Identifying potential limits to adaptation
 To be effective, national adaptation planning processes must be
supported withadequate capacity
Benjamin L. Preston
Deputy Director
Climate ChangeScience Institute
Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory
prestonbl@ornl.gov
Thank You

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Benjamin Preston ORNL/IPCC: Adaptation Risk Management

  • 1. Assessing and Managing Climate Change Risk Benjamin L. Preston DeputyDirector ClimateChangeScienceInstitute NAP Expo 2014 8-9 August 2014 UN Campus, Bonn, Germany
  • 2. 2 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Outline  Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management  Components of climate risk  Appraisal of adaptation options  Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
  • 3. 3 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Progress on Adaptation  Developing Nations – Planning Mechanisms  National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)  National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) – Funding Mechanisms  Least Developed Countries Climate Adaptation Fund  Special Climate Change Fund  Adaptation Fund  DevelopedNations – Extensive national planning  Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom – More extensive sub-national, local planning “Adaptation measures that also consider climate changeare being implemented, on a limited basis, in both developed and developing countries.” Adger et al. (2007) “Adaptation to climate change is transitioning from a phase of awareness to the construction of actual strategies and plans in societies.” Mimura et al. (2014)
  • 4. 4 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Climate Adaptation is Increasingly being Framed in the Context of Risk Management IPCC (2014) WG II, Summary for policymakers; IPCC (2012) SREX, Summary for policymakers  Hazard– A situation that poses a threat  Exposure– Presence of people & assets in places that could be adversely affected  Vulnerability– The propensity to be adversely affected
  • 5. 5 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Entry Pointsfor the Assessment of Climate Risk  The assessment of climate risk is a critical process in the adaptationplanning process  Extensiveguidance is available to assist governments in risk assessment and management
  • 6. 6 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy The Evolution of Climate Risk Management  Climaterisk management has evolved to include elements beyond the assessmentof impacts, vulnerability and risk – Appraisal of adaptation options (i.e., costs & benefits) – Evaluation of adaptation effectiveness – Integration of climate risk into management practice and development Jones and Preston (2011) Adaptation and Risk Management
  • 7. 7 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Outline  Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management  Components of climate risk  Appraisal of adaptation options  Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
  • 8. 8 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
  • 9. 9 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy “recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius” Copenhagen Accord (2009) Understanding Hazards – 2oC Target  The 2oC globaltargetis an entrypoint for the assessmentof climaterisk  But, the 2oC globaltargetneeds to be translatedinto national contexts  Adaptation to more than2oC (e.g., 4oC?)may be necessary,requiring greatereffort Concerns at 2oC “Estimated global GHG emissions levels in 2020 based on the Cancún Pledges are not consistentwith . . .mitigation trajectories that . . . limit temperature change to 2 °C . . .” IPCC WG III (2014)IPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers
  • 10. 10 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Hazard – Regional Warming Trends  Mostlandareas are projectedto warmmore rapidlythan the global meanand therefore exceed2oC more rapidly IPCC WGII (2014) Regional Context  Nations face differential climate hazards – Coastal regions – Small islands – Arid regions – Arctic regions  Hazardassessment requires placed-based informationon historical and future climate conditions – Extreme weather events are a key driver of risk
  • 11. 11 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Hazards – Adaptation Planning Tools  Sources of Knowledge – Experience, including traditional & local knowledge – Technical documents (e.g., IPCC assessment reports) – Weather/climate monitoring & services – Climate modeling (global & regional)  Tools – Climate Scenarios (deterministic & probabilistic; arbitrary & model-based) – Climate Model Intercomparison Project (U.S. Department of Energy) – Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank) – WorldClim – Global Climate Data – Climate Predictability Tool (IRI) – FetchClimate (Microsoft) – Pacific Climate Futures (CSIRO/BOM) – Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation Tool Enhancedunderstandingof the future dynamics of extreme weather events is a high priority for adaptation
  • 12. 12 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
  • 13. 13 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Exposure – Key Elements Distribution of People & Assets Distribution of Hazards Exposure  Temporal Dimension – Near-term: Day/night dynamics – Long-term: Migration, development  Spatial Dimension – Local: Flood risk, urban heat island – Regional: Heat wave, drought Lopez-Carr et al. (2014) A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa • Ecosystem services • Infrastructure • Demography • Land use • Storms • Drought risk • Flood zones • Extreme heat events
  • 14. 14 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Exposure – Adaptation Planning Tools  Sources of Knowledge – Oral/written histories – Census surveys – Geospatial data – Disaster planning information  Tools – Development scenarios – Global positioning systems – Remote sensing – GIS – Participatory mapping – Community surveys
  • 15. 15 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
  • 16. 16 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Vulnerability – Determinants  Collectively, these factors influence the likelihood of harmin the event of exposure to a hazard  A broadrange of factors can contribute to vulnerability – Location – Sensitivity/fragility  Physiological (e.g., thermal tolerance)  Physical (e.g., infrastructure) – Entitlements to capital  Financial  Human  Social  Physical  Natural – Governance arrangements  Effectiveness, cooperation – Social equity  Class, ethnicity, gender, religion ccafs.cgiar.org Felipe Dana ~ Associated Press
  • 17. 17 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Vulnerability - Constraints & Limits  Conditions that constrainor limitthe capacity to planand implement adaptationresponses enhance vulnerability IPCC (2014) Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
  • 18. 18 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Understanding Vulnerability - Adaptation Planning Tools  Sources of Knowledge – Local/traditional knowledge – Design principles/standards – Models – Governance indicators – Financial/economicanalysis – Ethnographic studies  Tools – Vulnerability indices – Literature review – Socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) – Impact modeling (e.g., agricultural, hydrological systems) – Stakeholder interviews, focus groups, surveys – Social network analysis
  • 19. 19 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Outline  Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management  Components of climate risk  Appraisal of adaptation options  Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
  • 20. 20 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Hazard Exposure Vulnerability Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/ Managing Risk through Adaptation
  • 21. 21 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Managing Risk – Approachesto Adaptation Degree of ForesightIPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers  A wealthof knowledge andinformationexists on potential adaptationresponses Coping, Vulnerability Reduction, Disaster Risk Reduction Incremental Adaptation Transformational Adaptation ScaleofResponse Poverty alleviation Capacity building Emergency management New crop varieties New infrastructure Expansion of public health services Migration Innovation Shifts in values
  • 22. 22 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Managing Risk – Prioritisation of Adaptation Responses  Theappraisal andevaluation of responses thatare appropriate for distinctnational circumstances is a currentchallenge – Cost/BenefitAnalysis  Established methodology for option appraisal  Sensitive to assumptions (e.g., discounting of future benefits) – Life Cycle Analysis  Consideration for direct and indirect effectsof options  Cradle-to-grave appraisal  Long-term fate of some options may be highly uncertain – Multi-Criteria Analysis  Appraisal of market and non-market costs and benefits  Appraisal of trade-offsamong objectives  Opportunitiesfor stakeholder participation “. . .a systematic approach to monitoring and evaluation for climate change adaptation has yet to emerge, and the capacity to undertake such monitoring and evaluation and incorporateit into adaptation policy is lacking.” Preston et al. (2011)
  • 23. 23 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Outline  Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management  Components of climate risk  Appraisal of adaptation options  Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
  • 24. 24 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 1) UKCIP (2003) Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making
  • 25. 25 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 2) Australian Greenhouse Office(2010) Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management
  • 26. 26 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Managing Risk – Building Capacity  Theissue of capacity for climate risk managementshouldbe recognised in twodifferentcontexts: 1) Additional capacity is needed to enable rigorous assessment of vulnerability and risk at the national level  Access to and evaluation of climate information and data  Application of different methodological approaches  Iterative risk assessment as new knowledge emerges 2) Consideration of capacity should be an integral component of the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk within the NAP process  Capacity was largely neglected in the National Adaptation Programmes of Action
  • 27. 27 Managed by UT-Battelle for the Department of Energy Summary  Climate risk management is evolving withina broader framework of climate resilient development  Existing guidance instruments and methods shouldbe synthesized to informrisk assessmentandmanagementin the contextof the NAPprocess & the UNFCCC  Researchers andpractitioners face a number of persistent challenges: – Incorporating useful insights regarding climate uncertainty and climate extremes into adaptation planning – Developing best practices for the appraisal of adaptation options – Evaluating the success of adaptation planning and implementation – Identifying potential limits to adaptation  To be effective, national adaptation planning processes must be supported withadequate capacity
  • 28. Benjamin L. Preston Deputy Director Climate ChangeScience Institute Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory prestonbl@ornl.gov Thank You