This document discusses assessing and managing climate change risk through adaptation and risk management. It outlines how climate risk is comprised of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Adaptation approaches can range from incremental to transformational depending on the scale of response. Tools and guidance exist to help understand hazards, exposure, and vulnerability through various sources of knowledge and analytical methods. Adaptation options then need to be appraised and prioritized to manage risk, though challenges remain in incorporating climate uncertainty, evaluating adaptation success, and identifying limits to adaptation. Capacity building is also important to support effective national adaptation planning.
Mosuoe Letuma, Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and water affairs: Capacity de...NAPExpo 2014
Mosuoe Letuma, Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and water affairs: Capacity development plan for adaptation to climate variability and change in Lesotho
Mosuoe Letuma, Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and water affairs: Capacity de...NAPExpo 2014
Mosuoe Letuma, Ministry of Energy, Meteorology and water affairs: Capacity development plan for adaptation to climate variability and change in Lesotho
Fred Kossam, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, Malawi: Experi...NAPExpo 2014
Fred Kossam, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, Malawi: Experiences in initiating multi-stakeholder engagement for the NAP process in Malawi
NAP Training Viet Nam - Vulnerability and Adapting to Climate ChangeUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action ...NAP Events
Presentation by: Josine Alexandra Gamboa
4.2 Integrating adaptation in development planning
The session will introduce an integrating framework for assessments under NAPs, which provides an opportunity for countries to pursue a development-centred approach in the formulation and implementation of NAPs. It will discuss opportunities and constraints for integrating and prioritizing climate change adaptation into development planning, as well as ways to build and enhance capacity for integrating climate change into development planning. Countries will also share experiences on their specific activities related to the topic.
Presented by Antonio L. Fernandez (Sr. Coordinator for the People’s Survival Fund, Climate Change Commission/Office of the President, Philippines) at the 2nd Targeted Topics Forum, Jamaica, March 2016
NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action ...NAP Global Network
Presentation by Alexis Lapiz, Philippines' Climate Change Commission, on "NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2028 based on the NAP Process."
Presented at the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Global Network's Targeted Topics Forum in Lilongwe, Malawi, in February 2017.
NAP Training Viet Nam - Climate Change and Viet Nam's NAPUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
Introduction to National Adaptation Planning in JamaicaNAP Global Network
Presentation by Dr. Orville Grey (NAP Focal Point, Climate Change Division in Jamaica's Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation), which was given at the workshop "Jamaica’s National Adaptation Plan: Integrating Climate Change into National and Ministerial Budgets" in July 2017.
NAP Training Viet Nam - Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in Viet NamUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for South AfricaTariq A. Deen
The session will provide details on: the tool developed by the LEG for monitoring and evaluating progress, effectiveness and gaps (PEG M&E tool) and its application in the process to formulate and implement NAPs; and the best practices for developing monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems for adaptation at the national level. It will also look at the experiences of countries in developing and applying M&E systems at their national levels.
Turning Black into Green - Incorporating DRR into Social and Economic Develop...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
Fred Kossam, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, Malawi: Experi...NAPExpo 2014
Fred Kossam, Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, Malawi: Experiences in initiating multi-stakeholder engagement for the NAP process in Malawi
NAP Training Viet Nam - Vulnerability and Adapting to Climate ChangeUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action ...NAP Events
Presentation by: Josine Alexandra Gamboa
4.2 Integrating adaptation in development planning
The session will introduce an integrating framework for assessments under NAPs, which provides an opportunity for countries to pursue a development-centred approach in the formulation and implementation of NAPs. It will discuss opportunities and constraints for integrating and prioritizing climate change adaptation into development planning, as well as ways to build and enhance capacity for integrating climate change into development planning. Countries will also share experiences on their specific activities related to the topic.
Presented by Antonio L. Fernandez (Sr. Coordinator for the People’s Survival Fund, Climate Change Commission/Office of the President, Philippines) at the 2nd Targeted Topics Forum, Jamaica, March 2016
NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action ...NAP Global Network
Presentation by Alexis Lapiz, Philippines' Climate Change Commission, on "NAP Process in the Philippines: Enhancing the National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2028 based on the NAP Process."
Presented at the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Global Network's Targeted Topics Forum in Lilongwe, Malawi, in February 2017.
NAP Training Viet Nam - Climate Change and Viet Nam's NAPUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
Introduction to National Adaptation Planning in JamaicaNAP Global Network
Presentation by Dr. Orville Grey (NAP Focal Point, Climate Change Division in Jamaica's Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation), which was given at the workshop "Jamaica’s National Adaptation Plan: Integrating Climate Change into National and Ministerial Budgets" in July 2017.
NAP Training Viet Nam - Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in Viet NamUNDP Climate
This two-day workshop supported the Government of Viet Nam in building the necessary capacity to advance its National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process. The workshop closely focused on building National Adaptation Plans in the agricultural sector through multi-stakeholder collaboration, and increased knowledge and capacity on a number of topics including: prioritization of adaptation options, cost-benefit analysis, overview of the broad-based nature of climate change adaption impacts, analysis of challenges, and creation of an open discussion with key stakeholders on defining a road-map for the NAP process. The workshop was delivered using discussions and case studies to enhance interactive learning for participants, with supporting presentations by GiZ and SNV.
National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for South AfricaTariq A. Deen
The session will provide details on: the tool developed by the LEG for monitoring and evaluating progress, effectiveness and gaps (PEG M&E tool) and its application in the process to formulate and implement NAPs; and the best practices for developing monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems for adaptation at the national level. It will also look at the experiences of countries in developing and applying M&E systems at their national levels.
Turning Black into Green - Incorporating DRR into Social and Economic Develop...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
Samoa Agritourism Policy Setting Worskhop 2016
Linking Agriculture and Tourism through Policy setting:
Strengthening the local agrifood sector and promoting agritourism
Workshop organised by the Government of Samoa and CTA
in collaboration with PIPSO
Apia, Samoa, 13-16 December 2016
Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment to Support Agricultural ResilienceLeo Kris Palao
CRVA a tool to spatially assess vulnerability to support communities at high risk to climate variability and change thru the provision of climate resilient agriculture (CRA). The project in the Philippines is funded by the Department of Agriculture - System Wide Climate Change Office (DA-SWCCO) to enhance farmer resilience in vulnerable areas. Watch out for the Landscape-CRVA that we are currently piloting in Isabela. This is also funded by DA-SWCCO.
This presentation was held during the 5th GIB Summit, May 27-28 2015.
The presentation and more information on the Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation are available on www.gib-foundation.org
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland
Similar to Benjamin Preston ORNL/IPCC: Adaptation Risk Management (20)
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
ZGB - The Role of Generative AI in Government transformation.pdfSaeed Al Dhaheri
This keynote was presented during the the 7th edition of the UAE Hackathon 2024. It highlights the role of AI and Generative AI in addressing government transformation to achieve zero government bureaucracy
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Benjamin Preston ORNL/IPCC: Adaptation Risk Management
1. Assessing and Managing
Climate Change Risk
Benjamin L. Preston
DeputyDirector
ClimateChangeScienceInstitute
NAP Expo 2014
8-9 August 2014
UN Campus, Bonn, Germany
2. 2 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
Components of climate risk
Appraisal of adaptation options
Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
3. 3 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Progress on Adaptation
Developing Nations
– Planning Mechanisms
National Adaptation Programmes
of Action (NAPAs)
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
– Funding Mechanisms
Least Developed Countries Climate
Adaptation Fund
Special Climate Change Fund
Adaptation Fund
DevelopedNations
– Extensive national planning
Austria, Belgium, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany,
Hungary, the Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, Spain,
United Kingdom
– More extensive sub-national,
local planning
“Adaptation measures that also consider climate changeare being
implemented, on a limited basis, in both developed and developing countries.”
Adger et al. (2007)
“Adaptation to climate change is transitioning from a phase of awareness to
the construction of actual strategies and plans in societies.”
Mimura et al. (2014)
4. 4 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Climate Adaptation is Increasingly being Framed in the
Context of Risk Management
IPCC (2014) WG II, Summary for policymakers; IPCC (2012) SREX, Summary for policymakers
Hazard– A situation that poses a threat
Exposure– Presence of people & assets in places that could be adversely affected
Vulnerability– The propensity to be adversely affected
5. 5 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Entry Pointsfor the Assessment of Climate Risk
The assessment of climate risk
is a critical process in the
adaptationplanning process
Extensiveguidance is available
to assist governments in risk
assessment and management
6. 6 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
The Evolution of Climate Risk Management
Climaterisk management has evolved to include elements beyond
the assessmentof impacts, vulnerability and risk
– Appraisal of adaptation options (i.e., costs & benefits)
– Evaluation of adaptation effectiveness
– Integration of climate risk into management practice and development
Jones and Preston (2011) Adaptation and Risk Management
7. 7 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
Components of climate risk
Appraisal of adaptation options
Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
8. 8 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
9. 9 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
“recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global temperature should
be below 2 degrees Celsius”
Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Understanding Hazards – 2oC Target
The 2oC globaltargetis an entrypoint
for the assessmentof climaterisk
But, the 2oC globaltargetneeds to be
translatedinto national contexts
Adaptation to more than2oC (e.g.,
4oC?)may be necessary,requiring
greatereffort
Concerns at 2oC
“Estimated global GHG emissions
levels in 2020 based on the Cancún
Pledges are not consistentwith . .
.mitigation trajectories that . . . limit
temperature change to 2 °C . . .”
IPCC WG III (2014)IPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers
10. 10 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Hazard – Regional Warming Trends
Mostlandareas are projectedto warmmore rapidlythan
the global meanand therefore exceed2oC more rapidly
IPCC WGII (2014) Regional Context
Nations face differential
climate hazards
– Coastal regions
– Small islands
– Arid regions
– Arctic regions
Hazardassessment
requires placed-based
informationon historical
and future climate
conditions
– Extreme weather events are
a key driver of risk
11. 11 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Hazards – Adaptation Planning Tools
Sources of Knowledge
– Experience, including traditional & local knowledge
– Technical documents (e.g., IPCC assessment reports)
– Weather/climate monitoring & services
– Climate modeling (global & regional)
Tools
– Climate Scenarios (deterministic & probabilistic; arbitrary & model-based)
– Climate Model Intercomparison Project (U.S. Department of Energy)
– Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank)
– WorldClim – Global Climate Data
– Climate Predictability Tool (IRI)
– FetchClimate (Microsoft)
– Pacific Climate Futures (CSIRO/BOM)
– Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation Tool
Enhancedunderstandingof the
future dynamics of extreme weather
events is a high priority for
adaptation
12. 12 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
13. 13 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Exposure – Key Elements
Distribution
of People &
Assets
Distribution
of Hazards
Exposure
Temporal Dimension
– Near-term: Day/night dynamics
– Long-term: Migration, development
Spatial Dimension
– Local: Flood risk, urban heat island
– Regional: Heat wave, drought
Lopez-Carr et al. (2014) A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa
• Ecosystem services
• Infrastructure
• Demography
• Land use
• Storms
• Drought risk
• Flood zones
• Extreme heat events
14. 14 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Exposure – Adaptation Planning Tools
Sources of Knowledge
– Oral/written histories
– Census surveys
– Geospatial data
– Disaster planning information
Tools
– Development scenarios
– Global positioning systems
– Remote sensing
– GIS
– Participatory mapping
– Community surveys
15. 15 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
16. 16 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability – Determinants
Collectively, these factors
influence the likelihood of harmin
the event of exposure to a hazard
A broadrange of factors can
contribute to vulnerability
– Location
– Sensitivity/fragility
Physiological (e.g., thermal tolerance)
Physical (e.g., infrastructure)
– Entitlements to capital
Financial
Human
Social
Physical
Natural
– Governance arrangements
Effectiveness, cooperation
– Social equity
Class, ethnicity, gender, religion
ccafs.cgiar.org
Felipe Dana ~ Associated Press
17. 17 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability - Constraints & Limits
Conditions that constrainor limitthe capacity to planand
implement adaptationresponses enhance vulnerability
IPCC (2014) Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits
18. 18 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Understanding Vulnerability - Adaptation Planning Tools
Sources of Knowledge
– Local/traditional knowledge
– Design principles/standards
– Models
– Governance indicators
– Financial/economicanalysis
– Ethnographic studies
Tools
– Vulnerability indices
– Literature review
– Socioeconomic scenarios (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
– Impact modeling (e.g., agricultural, hydrological systems)
– Stakeholder interviews, focus groups, surveys
– Social network analysis
19. 19 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
Components of climate risk
Appraisal of adaptation options
Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
20. 20 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
Risk = Hazard, Exposure & Vulnerability
Image Credits: http://washingtonpost.com;http://darkroom-cdn.s3.amazonaws.com/;http://msutoday.msu.edu/
Managing Risk through Adaptation
21. 21 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Approachesto Adaptation
Degree of ForesightIPCC WGII (2014) Summary for policymakers
A wealthof knowledge andinformationexists on potential
adaptationresponses
Coping,
Vulnerability
Reduction, Disaster
Risk Reduction
Incremental
Adaptation
Transformational
Adaptation
ScaleofResponse
Poverty alleviation
Capacity building
Emergency management
New crop varieties
New infrastructure
Expansion of public health services
Migration
Innovation
Shifts in values
22. 22 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Prioritisation of Adaptation Responses
Theappraisal andevaluation of responses thatare appropriate for
distinctnational circumstances is a currentchallenge
– Cost/BenefitAnalysis
Established methodology for option appraisal
Sensitive to assumptions (e.g., discounting of future benefits)
– Life Cycle Analysis
Consideration for direct and indirect effectsof options
Cradle-to-grave appraisal
Long-term fate of some options may be highly uncertain
– Multi-Criteria Analysis
Appraisal of market and non-market costs and benefits
Appraisal of trade-offsamong objectives
Opportunitiesfor stakeholder participation
“. . .a systematic approach to monitoring and evaluation for climate change
adaptation has yet to emerge, and the capacity to undertake such monitoring
and evaluation and incorporateit into adaptation policy is lacking.”
Preston et al. (2011)
23. 23 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Outline
Integrating adaptation and climaterisk management
Components of climate risk
Appraisal of adaptation options
Toward practical guidance on climate risk management
24. 24 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 1)
UKCIP (2003) Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making
25. 25 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Risk Management – Practical Guidance (example 2)
Australian Greenhouse Office(2010) Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management
26. 26 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Managing Risk – Building Capacity
Theissue of capacity for climate risk managementshouldbe
recognised in twodifferentcontexts:
1) Additional capacity is needed to enable rigorous assessment of
vulnerability and risk at the national level
Access to and evaluation of climate information and data
Application of different methodological approaches
Iterative risk assessment as new knowledge emerges
2) Consideration of capacity should be an integral component of the
assessment of climate vulnerability and risk within the NAP process
Capacity was largely neglected in the National Adaptation Programmes of
Action
27. 27 Managed by UT-Battelle
for the Department of Energy
Summary
Climate risk management is evolving withina broader framework
of climate resilient development
Existing guidance instruments and methods shouldbe
synthesized to informrisk assessmentandmanagementin the
contextof the NAPprocess & the UNFCCC
Researchers andpractitioners face a number of persistent
challenges:
– Incorporating useful insights regarding climate uncertainty and climate
extremes into adaptation planning
– Developing best practices for the appraisal of adaptation options
– Evaluating the success of adaptation planning and implementation
– Identifying potential limits to adaptation
To be effective, national adaptation planning processes must be
supported withadequate capacity
28. Benjamin L. Preston
Deputy Director
Climate ChangeScience Institute
Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory
prestonbl@ornl.gov
Thank You