Bdew 8.6.16 f
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This document discusses decarbonization and its consequences for energy markets in Germany and Europe. It outlines the scale of the challenge, including continued growth in carbon emissions and population. It also notes forecasts of increasing oil demand and coal use. The emerging energy context includes falling fossil fuel prices and new technologies like electric vehicles. Policy responses have focused on exiting coal, but targets set in Paris may not achieve the 2-degree warming limit. The EU 2030 framework establishes renewables targets but also recentralizes some energy policies. Overall decarbonization will be difficult to achieve at the necessary scale and speed given these complex technical and policy issues.
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- 1. DECARBONISATION & THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE GERMAN AND EUROPEAN ENERGY MARKETS BDE W DIETER HELM Professor of Energy Policy, University of Oxford Director, Aurora Energy Research 9th June 2016
- 2. AGENDA The scale of the challenge The emerging energy context The policy responses
- 3. THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE Source: US Department of Commerce, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), "Globally Averaged Marine Surface Annual Mean Data", Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html (accessed 5 May 2016). I: CARBON EMISSIONS KEEP GOING UP
- 4. II: FORECAST OIL DEMAND INCREASES THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 (February 2015), http://www.bp.com/energyoutlook; Exxon Mobil, The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 (2015), http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy/energy-outlook; Statoil Energy Perspectives 2015, http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/EnergyPerspectives/Downloads/Energy%20Perspectives%202015.pdf
- 5. THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE 2-3 billion more people III: AND…. POPULATION GROWTH 3% world GDP = x 16 GDP by 2100 India x 2 coal by 2020
- 6. IV: WHY SO LITTLE PROGRESS? The Kyoto illusion • European carbon production • European carbon consumption Coal 25% 30% world energy Coal in Germany THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE
- 7. V: GERMAN COAL AND CO2 EMISSIONS Source: http://www.bmwi.de/EN/Topics/Energy/Energy-data-and-forecasts/energy-data.html THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGE
- 8. THE EMERGING ENERGY CONTEXT I: THE END OF THE COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2015), bp.com/statistical review; Aurora Energy Research 2016, with data from Thomson Reuters 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2012 US$/bbl Crude oil prices 1861-2016 Historic average
- 9. EMERGING ENERGY CONTEXT II: NEW TECHNOLOGIES Electric cars Digitalisation of manufacturing and services • Robots • 3D printing • AI New decentralised networks
- 10. UK exit by 2025 Germany now (Aurora estimate: 27 GW of coal plant need to close by 2030 to meet targets) THE POLICY RESPONSES But earlier = nuclear coal gas coal I: EXIT COAL
- 11. THE POLICY RESPONSES II: PARIS & 2030 TARGETS The targets are • Voluntary • They don’t add up ≠2°C AND They are based upon carbon consumption not carbon production.
- 12. THE EU 2030 FRAMEWORK The renewables target The market design directive & state aids The allocation of the 2030 target The renationalisation of energy policy Nord Stream 2 & the Eastern Europeans III: THE POLICY RESPONSES
- 13. CONCLUSIONS • Prices of fossil fuels – slowly falling • Carbon constraints increasing (& temperatures increasing) • Key role for gas in the transition – and for secure supplies • Technological transformation changing the game • And (almost) everything will be electric ….. electric cars, next generation solar, small modular nuclear, smart systems, decentralised generation, lots of AI… AND Lots of unpredictable surprises …. it could all be very different!
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