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THE GREEN BELT & NATURAL
CAPITAL
Professor Dieter Helm
University of Oxford, New College
5th July 2016
Dieterhelm.co.uk
THE RATIONALE FOR A GREEN BELT
• The Natural Capital Approach
• Why natural capital needs to be near to people
• The multiple benefits of the Green Belt
• Why the value will go on increasing as population and wealth
increase
• How it could be improved
• The 25 year plan
THE NATURAL CAPITAL APPROACH
• Factor inputs, substitutability and externalities
• Asset valuation & balance sheets
• Capital maintenance
• Sustainable economic growth
• The aggregate natural capital rules
NATURAL CAPITAL AND LOCATION
• Access to open spaces and woodlands
• Air quality and city centres
• The importance of leisure
• Health benefits
• Biodiversity and nature
THE CASE AGAINST
• Housing necessity - need to build on boundaries of cities?
• Poor current values - much of the Green Belt is intensive agriculture
and golf courses?
• Population and concentration - there is plenty of open land to the
north and west?
• Low impact of marginal encroachment - a few hectares here and
there do not matter?
• Inhibition to economic growth - contains economic development and
raises costs?
RESPONSE:
I: HOUSING AND HOUSING LOCATION
• No shortage of brownfield sites
• Advantages of increasing density
• Intelligent transport and the concept of distance as time
• Occupancy rates and the growth of demand
RESPONSE:
II: POOR CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES
• True in some places, but nothing follows
• Inefficient and polluting agriculture subsidies
• Air pollution would be even worse without the Green Belt, even in its
current state
• No excuse for poor environmental standards
• and regulation
• Could obviously be otherwise
RESPONSE:
III: POPULATION AND CONCENTRATION
• Open question about 10 million more people in next two decades
• Unbalanced growth in South East
• System costs of greater sprawl versus concentrations
• Objective of a generational enhancement of natural capital
Oxford Green Belt
example
Sydlings Copse Nature Reserve
View East to the reserve
RESPONSE:
IV: IMPACT OF MARGINAL LOSSES TO THE GREEN
BELT
• Fundamental mistake in thinking Green Belt is lots of little marginal
bits
• Systems analysis versus CBA
• The most valuable bits are precisely the bits under attack
• The UK wide Green Belt and wildlife corridor concepts
RESPONSE:
V: ECONOMIC GROWTH
• Economic growth needs to be sustainable - otherwise it will not be
sustained
• GDP does not measure sustainable economic growth (or much of use at
all)
• Natural capital is an integral part of the economy
• Losses from neglecting natural capital are massive - think deaths from air
pollution, obesity, biodiversity and so on…
• Agricultural subsidies are growth reducing
• Distance is about time not miles
• Broadband (if developed properly) is transformational
A HUGE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
TO REDEFINE AND ENHANCE OUR NATURAL
CAPITAL
• What a green Green Belt could look like
• A new revitalisation for the 21st century Green Belt
• Adding in the rights to access green open spaces
• Proper capital maintenance and enhancement of Green Belt Natural
Capital
• A new focus on natural capital not just in National Parks and on the
fringes, but at the core of the economy and urban populations.
www.dieterhelm.co.uk
FOR INFORMATION
Natural Capital Network
Paper 1.
Catchment
management,
abstraction and
flooding
Dieter Helm
Feb 2015
Natural Capital Network
Paper 2.
In defence of the
green belt
Dieter Helm
April 2015
www.dieterhelm.co.uk
Natural Capital Network
Paper 3.
Flood defence: Time
for a radical rethink
Dieter Helm
Jan 2016
Natural Capital Network
Paper 4.
Green Bonds for
Natural Capital –
some issues
Dieter Helm
Jun 2016

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Dclg 5.07.16

  • 1. THE GREEN BELT & NATURAL CAPITAL Professor Dieter Helm University of Oxford, New College 5th July 2016 Dieterhelm.co.uk
  • 2. THE RATIONALE FOR A GREEN BELT • The Natural Capital Approach • Why natural capital needs to be near to people • The multiple benefits of the Green Belt • Why the value will go on increasing as population and wealth increase • How it could be improved • The 25 year plan
  • 3. THE NATURAL CAPITAL APPROACH • Factor inputs, substitutability and externalities • Asset valuation & balance sheets • Capital maintenance • Sustainable economic growth • The aggregate natural capital rules
  • 4. NATURAL CAPITAL AND LOCATION • Access to open spaces and woodlands • Air quality and city centres • The importance of leisure • Health benefits • Biodiversity and nature
  • 5. THE CASE AGAINST • Housing necessity - need to build on boundaries of cities? • Poor current values - much of the Green Belt is intensive agriculture and golf courses? • Population and concentration - there is plenty of open land to the north and west? • Low impact of marginal encroachment - a few hectares here and there do not matter? • Inhibition to economic growth - contains economic development and raises costs?
  • 6. RESPONSE: I: HOUSING AND HOUSING LOCATION • No shortage of brownfield sites • Advantages of increasing density • Intelligent transport and the concept of distance as time • Occupancy rates and the growth of demand
  • 7. RESPONSE: II: POOR CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES • True in some places, but nothing follows • Inefficient and polluting agriculture subsidies • Air pollution would be even worse without the Green Belt, even in its current state • No excuse for poor environmental standards • and regulation • Could obviously be otherwise
  • 8. RESPONSE: III: POPULATION AND CONCENTRATION • Open question about 10 million more people in next two decades • Unbalanced growth in South East • System costs of greater sprawl versus concentrations • Objective of a generational enhancement of natural capital
  • 9. Oxford Green Belt example Sydlings Copse Nature Reserve View East to the reserve
  • 10. RESPONSE: IV: IMPACT OF MARGINAL LOSSES TO THE GREEN BELT • Fundamental mistake in thinking Green Belt is lots of little marginal bits • Systems analysis versus CBA • The most valuable bits are precisely the bits under attack • The UK wide Green Belt and wildlife corridor concepts
  • 11. RESPONSE: V: ECONOMIC GROWTH • Economic growth needs to be sustainable - otherwise it will not be sustained • GDP does not measure sustainable economic growth (or much of use at all) • Natural capital is an integral part of the economy • Losses from neglecting natural capital are massive - think deaths from air pollution, obesity, biodiversity and so on… • Agricultural subsidies are growth reducing • Distance is about time not miles • Broadband (if developed properly) is transformational
  • 12. A HUGE ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY TO REDEFINE AND ENHANCE OUR NATURAL CAPITAL • What a green Green Belt could look like • A new revitalisation for the 21st century Green Belt • Adding in the rights to access green open spaces • Proper capital maintenance and enhancement of Green Belt Natural Capital • A new focus on natural capital not just in National Parks and on the fringes, but at the core of the economy and urban populations.
  • 14. FOR INFORMATION Natural Capital Network Paper 1. Catchment management, abstraction and flooding Dieter Helm Feb 2015 Natural Capital Network Paper 2. In defence of the green belt Dieter Helm April 2015 www.dieterhelm.co.uk Natural Capital Network Paper 3. Flood defence: Time for a radical rethink Dieter Helm Jan 2016 Natural Capital Network Paper 4. Green Bonds for Natural Capital – some issues Dieter Helm Jun 2016