Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank presents the Asian Development Outlook Update during a IAI seminar "Developing Asia and the Pacific"
Following the Prime Minister’s intervention in Parliament and the developments on the economic front, the Confederation of Indian Industry said that the reiteration of Government’s commitment to economic revival was timely and pertinent. “CII had put forward industry’s ten-point agenda for economic revival to Government last month,” stated Mr Kris Gopalakrishnan, President, CII. “It is heartening that Government is taking action to counter the economic downswing.”
“Responding to the fast deteriorating economic parameters, CII had presented ‘An Agenda for Economic Revival’ to the Government in July. While the Government has outlined targets for CAD and fiscal deficit, CII said that specific steps are urgently required to stimulate growth and to improve investor sentiments,” said Mr Gopalakrishnan.
In its ten-point agenda, CII has recommended a comprehensive set of actionables, said the CII release issued here today.
Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank presents the Asian Development Outlook Update during a IAI seminar "Developing Asia and the Pacific"
Following the Prime Minister’s intervention in Parliament and the developments on the economic front, the Confederation of Indian Industry said that the reiteration of Government’s commitment to economic revival was timely and pertinent. “CII had put forward industry’s ten-point agenda for economic revival to Government last month,” stated Mr Kris Gopalakrishnan, President, CII. “It is heartening that Government is taking action to counter the economic downswing.”
“Responding to the fast deteriorating economic parameters, CII had presented ‘An Agenda for Economic Revival’ to the Government in July. While the Government has outlined targets for CAD and fiscal deficit, CII said that specific steps are urgently required to stimulate growth and to improve investor sentiments,” said Mr Gopalakrishnan.
In its ten-point agenda, CII has recommended a comprehensive set of actionables, said the CII release issued here today.
This reports gives reader an overview of India steel industry. It will explain India position from world prospective, its working and dominant players.
Business Monitor Key Views on Asia's economic, political and infrastructure a...Wei Xiang Tay
This month we've done something a little different. The first half is the general macro outlook (global + regional), and the second half, a slightly deeper dive into the infra sector, looking at key markets within APAC. This monthly presentation has a great mix of economics, politics and sectors analysis.
Our „VCTS‟ framework is currently indicating that, Valuations - are reasonable for long term investments, Cycle – Business Cycle has bottomed out, Trigger would be the trajectory of COVID-19 growth curve and vaccine development and Sentiments – around equity as an asset class is negative due to muted past returns and relatively low FPI flows. We recommend that it is a good time to accumulate equities and stay invested for long term across market cycles.
asia pacific 2020, the economy military global stageTASNIM ILMIARDHI
Asia Pacific is the most important region in the world economy and themost complete on the military aspects. Asia Pacific will remain the center of global economic growth. Of the ten countries that have the largest reserves in the world, eight countries are among the countries in Asia Pacific. The
rate of economic growth impact on increasing the strength of the defense and military spending, in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have a direct impact on the stability of the region. Even the increasing global geopolitical tensions, the Asia Pacific region will solidify its position as a major player in military spending in 2020.
This reports gives reader an overview of India steel industry. It will explain India position from world prospective, its working and dominant players.
Business Monitor Key Views on Asia's economic, political and infrastructure a...Wei Xiang Tay
This month we've done something a little different. The first half is the general macro outlook (global + regional), and the second half, a slightly deeper dive into the infra sector, looking at key markets within APAC. This monthly presentation has a great mix of economics, politics and sectors analysis.
Our „VCTS‟ framework is currently indicating that, Valuations - are reasonable for long term investments, Cycle – Business Cycle has bottomed out, Trigger would be the trajectory of COVID-19 growth curve and vaccine development and Sentiments – around equity as an asset class is negative due to muted past returns and relatively low FPI flows. We recommend that it is a good time to accumulate equities and stay invested for long term across market cycles.
asia pacific 2020, the economy military global stageTASNIM ILMIARDHI
Asia Pacific is the most important region in the world economy and themost complete on the military aspects. Asia Pacific will remain the center of global economic growth. Of the ten countries that have the largest reserves in the world, eight countries are among the countries in Asia Pacific. The
rate of economic growth impact on increasing the strength of the defense and military spending, in addition to geopolitical conflicts that have a direct impact on the stability of the region. Even the increasing global geopolitical tensions, the Asia Pacific region will solidify its position as a major player in military spending in 2020.
"Sell in May and go away‟ this old Wall Street adage has once again proved correct for most of the Global Markets which have witnessed a correction in the month of May. However, Indian markets took no cue from the above saying and continued to chug along through the month ending in a positive territory
( 1.7%).
Read the full document to know more.
On the domestic front, Indian equities corrected sharply post the FY20 Union Budget announcement on 5th July 2019 due to uncertainty emanating from a couple of proposals pertaining to: 1) Increase in taxes for FPIs accessing the Indian equity markets through the ‘Trust’ route; and 2) potential supply side pressures for equity markets (increase in free float requirement from 25% to 35% coupled with relaxation on minimum threshold of 51% Government ownership for PSUs including the shareholding of Government controlled institutions). Post the budget, equity and bond markets have witnessed divergent trends.
Read the full document to know more.
OECD: The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic (Presentation)chaganomics
The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
We believe that the divergence between Value & Growth stocks continues to prevail. Currently, fundamentally sound value stocks are available at inexpensive valuations & have better earnings visibility. Read our Equity Update for August 2020
An overview of india japan trade relation today and tomorrowmarketxceldata
Economic relations between India and Japan have vast potential for growth, given the obvious complementarities that exist between the two Asian economies. Japan's interest in India is increasing due to a variety of reasons including India's big and growing market and its resources, especially the human resources. The signing of the historic India-Japan Comprehensive Economic PartnershipAgreement (CEPA) and its implementation from August 2011 has accelerated economic and commercial relations between the two countries.
For Inquiry Visit Us: https://www.market-xcel.com/contact.html
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Global Markets posted gains in the month of April cheering the fiscal stimulus measures of Global Central Banks along with flattening of COVID-19 infection curve. Indian Markets (Nifty 50 Index) too ended in positive territory with 14.7% returns. A rebound in oil prices, encouraging early results from COVID-19 treatment trial and expectations of further stimulus measures by the governments contributedto the global market gains.
Triggers to watch out for -
General Election Outcome
Budget to be presented post elections
Re-balancing of MSCI Indices
Monsoon
Crude price volatility
FII flows trend
Rich Market Valuations
A detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
Triggers to watch out for -
1. General Election Outcome
2. Key Reforms Implemented over 5 years
3. Analysis of market returns post-election
4. High-frequency indicators
5. FPI flows trend
A detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
Report from the Financial Crime Risk and Policy group on achievements to date and strategy for moving forward. Lead by Graham Baldock and Graham Finding.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
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US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
2. Asian Development Outlook 2019
Towards a disaster-resilient Asia
Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr.
Deputy Chief Economist
Asian Development Bank
2
Asian Development Outlook 2019
3. Key Messages
• Developing Asia’s growth to moderate to 5.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020
amid weaker global demand and trade tensions
• PRC moderation partly reflects efforts to control financial risks;
India set to rebound as consumption strengthens
• Inflation to remain subdued at 2.5% in 2019 and 2020
• The primary risk still centers on the trade conflict, with uncertainty
heightened by protracted negotiations
3
4. 6.0
6.2
5.9
5.7
5.6
6.5
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.1
5
6
7
8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
GDP growth Developing Asia
Developing Asia excluding NIEs
Developing Asia's growth is softening, as prospects in
advanced economies dim
4
GDP growth (%)
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
ADO
forecast
2020
ADO
forecast
Major industrial
economiesa 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.6
United States 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.9
Euro area 2.5 1.8 1.5 1.5
Japan 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.6
a Average growth rates are weighed by gross national income, Atlas method.
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov; Eurostat,
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu; Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan,
http://www.esri.cao.go.jp; Consensus Forecasts; Bloomberg; CEIC Data Company; Haver Analytics;
ADB estimates.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019 database.
Forecast
NIEs = newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and
Taipei,China
5. Global trade and activity slowed and trade tensions
escalated…
5
Global activity indicators
PMI = purchasing managers’ index, PRC = People’s Republic of China, sa = seasonally adjusted, US = United States.
Sources: Haver Analytics; CEIC Data Company.
6. …which weighed on the region’s exports…
6
-30
0
30
60
Jan
2016
Jul Jan
2017
Jul Jan
2018
Jul
% change, year
on year
Export growth, by product categories
Nominal primary products
Nominal manufactures
-30
0
30
60
Jan
2016
Jul Jan
2017
Jul Jan
2018
Jul
% change, year
on year
Import growth, by product categories
Nominal primary products
Nominal manufactures
Primary products refer to food and live animals; beverages and tobacco; crude materials , inedible, except fuels; mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials; and animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes.
Manufactured goods refer to chemicals and related products; manufactured goods, classified chiefly by material; machinery and transport equipment; miscellaneous manufactured articles; and commodities and transactions
not classified elsewhere in the SITC.
Note: Refers to data for 10 developing Asian economies, namely, Hong Kong, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, PRC, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taipei,China, and Thailand.
Source: Staff estimates using data from CEIC Data Company and Haver Analytics.
7. …but domestic demand has supported the region’s growth
7
fy = fiscal year
Notes: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations; HKG = Hong Kong, China, IND = India, INO = Indonesia, KOR = Republic of Korea, MAL = Malaysia, NIEs = newly industrialized economies, PHI = Philippines, PRC =
People's Republic of China, SIN = Singapore, TAP = Taipei,China, THA = Thailand, VIE = Viet Nam. Components do not add up to total due to a statistical discrepancy.
Data for India are in fiscal years which covers the period 1 April to 30 March.
Source: Haver Analytics (accessed 10 March 2019); ADB estimates.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2017
2018
fy2017
fy2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
2017
2018
PRC IND HKG KOR SIN TAP INO MAL PHI THA VIE
Percentage points
Demand-side contribution to growth, selected economies
Total consumption Total investments Net Exports GDP growth
ASEAN-5NIEs
8. 8
Developing Asia’s more open sub-regions will see
more of a slowdown in 2019
Note: Red arrow= lower than the previous year. Green arrow = higher than the previous year. No sign = no change.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019 database.
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
East Asia 6.0 5.7 5.5 South Asia 6.7 6.8 6.9
Hong Kong, China 3.0 2.5 2.5 Bangladesh 7.9 8.0 8.0
People's Republic of China 6.6 6.3 6.1 India 7.0 7.2 7.3
Republic of Korea 2.7 2.5 2.5 Pakistan 5.2 3.9 3.6
Taipei,China 2.6 2.2 2.0
Central Asia 4.4 4.2 4.2
Southeast Asia 5.1 4.9 5.0 Azerbaijan 1.4 2.5 2.7
Indonesia 5.2 5.2 5.3 Kazakhstan 4.1 3.5 3.3
Malaysia 4.7 4.5 4.7
Philippines 6.2 6.4 6.4 The Pacific 0.9 3.5 3.2
Singapore 3.2 2.6 2.6 Fiji 3.0 3.2 3.5
Thailand 4.1 3.9 3.7 Papua New Guinea 0.2 3.7 3.1
Viet Nam 7.1 6.8 6.7
Developing Asia 5.9 5.7 5.6 Excluding NIEs 6.4 6.2 6.1
9. PRC moderation reflects both
structural factors and policy tightening
Supply-side contribution to growth
Source: National Bureau of Statistics.
Growth of broad money, total social financing,
bank loans, and shadow banking
Sources: People’s Bank of China; ADB estimates.
9.0
7.3
6.9 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010-2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percentage points
Services
Industry
Agriculture
Gross domestic product
Forecast
9
10. In India, domestic demand remains strong and will be
supported by policy easing going forward
Years are in fiscal years which cover the period 1 April to 30 March..
Source: Asian Development Outlook database.
Source: Bloomberg (accessed 6 March 2019).
7.4
8.0 8.2
7.2 7.0 7.2 7.3
-4
0
4
8
12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Percentage points
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross capital formation
Net exports
Gross domestic product
Forecast
Demand-side contribution to growth
46
48
50
52
54
56
Jan
2016
Jul Jan
2017
Jul Jan
2018
Jul Jan
2019
Index
expansion
contraction
Purchasing manager’s index, Manufacturing
10
11. Stable food and fuel prices to keep
inflation in check
11
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2019 database.Source: Bloomberg.
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.5 2.5 2.5
0
1
2
3
4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Inflation and sub-regional contributions,
developing Asia
Central Asia East Asia
South Asia Southeast Asia
The Pacific Developing Asia
60
70
80
90
100
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Index$/barrel
Brent crude and food price
Brent Crude Spot Price (left scale)
Food price forecast
(ADO 2019)
Brent Crude
Futures Price (12
February 2019)
Food price index (right scale)
Food price index
(Annual average)
Brent Crude
(Annual average)
10-year average (2009-2018): 3.2%
Forecast
12. The greatest risk centers on
prolonged US-PRC trade
tensions, which heighten
uncertainty
Growth in the advanced
economies and the PRC
may slow by more than
expected
Rapid Fed hike less likely,
but risk of financial
volatility remains
12
Risks remain tilted to the downside
Source: ADB staff estimates, based on methodology of Hlatshwayo (2018).
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan 1995 Jan 1998 Jan 2001 Jan 2004 Jan 2007 Jan 2010 Jan 2013 Jan 2016 Jan 2019
Index
US-PRC trade tension
over IPR
PRC WTO
accession
US-PRC trade
tension
PRC: Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, 1995-2019
13. Summary
• Developing Asia’s growth to moderate to 5.7% in 2019 and 5.6% in 2020
amid weaker global demand and trade tensions
• PRC moderation partly reflects efforts to control financial risks;
India set to rebound as consumption strengthens
• Inflation to remain subdued at 2.5% in 2019 and 2020
• The primary risk still centers on the trade conflict, with uncertainty
heightened by protracted negotiations
13
Editor's Notes
Good morning. Let me begin by summarizing the key messages of the report.
First, growth in developing Asia will slow to 5.7% in 2019, and to 5.6% in 2020. Exports are slowing as global demand softens and as trade tensions persist.
Second, the region’s largest economy, the People’s Republic of China, will see continuing growth moderation. This reflects both structural factors and continued efforts to reduce financial risks. Growth in the second-largest economy of India is set to pick up, as supportive policies boost consumption.
Third, inflation will remain subdued at 2.5% in 2019 and 2020, as oil and non-oil commodity price pressures are muted.
Fourth, in a cloudy outlook the primary risk still centers on the trade conflict, with uncertainty heightened by protracted negotiations.
Finally, this report’s theme chapter on “Strengthening Disaster Resilience” documents how disaster risk and costs are rising, and Asia is particularly vulnerable. Resilience under natural hazards requires further strengthening.
Despite rising headwinds, regional growth slowed only slightly, from 6.2% in 2017 to 5.9% in 2018 <blue line, left panel>.
One of these headwinds is a slowdown in advanced economies. As you can see in the RHS table, aggregate growth in major industrial economies of the United States, Euro area, and Japan moderated slightly to 2.2% in 2018 from 2.3% in 2017 <right panel, top row>.
With trade tensions persisting and growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continuing to moderate, regional growth will soften further to 5.7% in 2019 and to 5.6% in 2020 <blue line in the shaded area, left panel>
Excluding the newly industrialized economies, growth will slow from 6.4% in 2018 to 6.2% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020 <red line in the shaded area, left panel>.
The slowing of global trade and economic activity is partly a cyclical phenomenon, as the expansion in the advanced economies has been going on for several years. But it also coincided with the escalation of trade tensions between the US and the PRC <shaded box on the right>
The dashed vertical lines correspond to key tariff escalation dates in the ongoing trade conflict.
The green line shows year on year growth in world trade volumes, which after strengthening in 2017 started plateauing in 2018, with a sharp decline towards the end of the year.
The red line refers to the global composite purchasing managers’ index, or PMI; and the blue line refers to global manufacturing PMI. Positive numbers are associated with expansion, and negative numbers with contraction. These forward-looking proxies for global economic activity both moved downward through 2018.
These rising headwinds dampened regional exports in 2018, despite a strong start.
Exports in the region’s economies <left panel> posted solid growth in 2018, but could not beat the stellar rate of 2017 in this weakening environment. By year-end exports contracted slightly. Economies that saw export growth slowdowns in 2018 were those most dependent on the electronics cycle (semiconductor cycle), particularly the newly industrialized economies and Southeast Asia.
Imports, on the other hand, saw very high growth rates in 2018 even compared to 2017, particularly in commodity-importing countries <right panel>
Addendum:
The series refers to trade data in US$ terms for 10 developing Asian economies, namely, PRC, India, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taipei,China, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand.
% Share to Total Exports for Developing Asia (2018): 92.4%
% Share to Total GNI (Atlas Method) for Developing Asia (2017): 93.3%
Despite the softening external environment, developing Asia still posted good growth because domestic demand remained strong.
On average, consumption <orange bars> contributed 3.7 percentage points to overall growth in 2018, up from 3.4 percentage points in 2017.
Investment <grey bars> picked up and provided an impetus for growth in some economies [such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand], but it was a drag in other countries [such as Korea and Malaysia].
The growth contribution from net exports <blue bars> was negative in 7 of the 11 countries in the sample, partly reflecting declining export growth but also rising imports due to higher oil prices and increased investment.
Slower demand growth from advanced economies and PRC will lower growth for developing Asia from 5.9% to 5.7% in 2019 and further to 5.6% in 2020.
Looking at growth by sub-regions <starting from the top left column>, we see that the more open and outward-oriented economies are those which will slow more in 2019:
East Asia will see moderating growth across the board, as PRC neighbors’ exports are also affected by the trade conflict. Intermediate trade (about 80% of total) should continue to languish over the first half of the year, as slower growth from PRC weighs over the horizon period.
Southeast Asia’s growth will moderate slightly to 4.9% in 2019 and 5% in 2020. For 2019 the spillover from the trade conflict weighs on all countries, though this is offset by public investment increases in the Philippines, and also in Indonesia in 2020. Malaysia should see a trade-related recovery in 2020.
<Turning to the top right> South Asia is expected to grow the fastest, bolstered by strong growth in India and Bangladesh. Pakistan’s external financing problems will weigh in on that country’s growth, however.
Central Asia’s growth will fall slightly to 4.2% in 2019 and 2020 amid lower oil prices, although Azerbaijan’s output will recover more than expected amid increased natural gas production.
In contrast, the Pacific region is now projected to expand to 3.5% in 2019 and 3.2% in 2020 as repair work on the LNG terminal damaged by the early 2018 earthquake in Papua New Guinea is complete (PNG is about 70% of the Pacific)
Growth in the People’s Rep. of China continued to moderate from 6.8% in 2017 to 6.6% in 2018, in line with the government’s growth target of around 6.5%.
Continued moderation in the PRC can be attributed to structural factors, but also to policy tightening to rein in vulnerabilities.
As the Chinese economy matures, growth will naturally slow. There is also an ongoing structural shift away from industry <blue bars, left panel>, whose contribution to growth has declined, toward services <yellow bars, left panel>.
As for policies, tightened regulations led to a contraction in shadow bank financing <right panel, green line>, which slowed growth in outstanding social financing – a broad measure of credit – from 13.4% in 2017 to 9.8% in 2018 <right panel, red line>. Housing market restrictions and tighter fiscal policy in the first half of 2018 also restrained growth.
Looking ahead, growth will moderate further to 6.3% in 2019 and 6.1% in 2020 as restrictions on housing markets and shadow banking continue, and as the trade conflict with the US weakens exports.
In contrast, in India, growth slowed from 7.2% in fiscal year 2017 to 7.0% in fiscal year 2018, with agriculture subdued and consumption curtailed somewhat by higher global oil prices and lower government expenditure.
On the demand side, private consumption was the main driver of growth in FY 2018 <blue bars, left panel>. It is likely to have received an impetus from the reduction in GST rates across a wide range of commodities during the year and a cut in key monetary policy rates.
Gross fixed capital formation <grey bars, left panel> grew by a robust 10% in FY 2018, which was sustained by government push. Indeed, central government’s capital expenditure grew by a robust 20.3% on the back of infrastructure investments.
Looking ahead, growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in 2019 and 7.3% in 2020 as policy rates are cut and farmers receive income support, bolstering domestic demand
Manufacturing production's outlook is quite positive <right panel>. Since mid-2018 the PMI has shown continued improvement in India, hitting a 14-month high in February 2019.
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The Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI), is a forward-looking indicators of the manufacturing sector’s health.
Turning now to inflation, a rise in oil prices in 2018 <left panel, red line> along with depreciation in a number of economies contributed to a slight uptick in inflation last year, to 2.5%. Looking forward, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stabilize at lower levels, while food prices <blue line> will increase only slightly in 2020.
These muted commodity price movements, along with policy rate tightening that occurred in several economies in the region last year, will keep inflation firmly anchored in developing Asia as a whole, at 2.5% in 2019 and 2020. <right panel> This is firmly below the 10-year average of 3.2%. <dotted line in right panel>
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Note: year to date, the average Brent crude oil price is at $62/barrel and the last reading (as of March 21th) is of $65/barrel
In a cloudy outlook, the risks remain tilted to the downside.
The primary risks still center on the US-PRC trade conflict. Uncertainty is heightened by protracted negotiations and disagreements, which could curtail investment and growth in the region.
The report uses indicators based on the number of news articles that mention trade policy uncertainty, and which capture the degree of uncertainty that the public perceives about trade policy. The chart on the right, which shows trade policy uncertainty for the PRC, shows that this indicator was high in 1995 during a US-PRC conflict over intellectual property rights, and was also elevated in the late 1990s and early 2000s when the PRC was in the process of joining the World Trade Organization. It started rising again in 2017 and 2018 and is now at an all-time high. ADB analysis indicates that periods of high trade policy uncertainty can have significant negative effects on investment.
A possible upside risk to the outlook is that negotiations readily bring agreement and low trade barriers, as both sides have shown willingness to come to an agreement.
Beyond the trade conflict, growth in the advanced economies and the PRC may slow by more than expected if Brexit is disorderly, for example, or contention flares over fiscal policy in the US. This could spill over into the rest of the region.
Finally, one risk that has subsided relative to our assessment last year is the risk that the US abruptly raises the policy rate. However, emerging market currency and asset markets could become volatile as in 2018 so monetary policy-makers in the region must remain vigilant.
Good morning. Let me begin by summarizing the key messages of the report.
First, growth in developing Asia will slow to 5.7% in 2019, and to 5.6% in 2020. Exports are slowing as global demand softens and as trade tensions persist.
Second, the region’s largest economy, the People’s Republic of China, will see continuing growth moderation. This reflects both structural factors and continued efforts to reduce financial risks. Growth in the second-largest economy of India is set to pick up, as supportive policies boost consumption.
Third, inflation will remain subdued at 2.5% in 2019 and 2020, as oil and non-oil commodity price pressures are muted.
Fourth, in a cloudy outlook the primary risk still centers on the trade conflict, with uncertainty heightened by protracted negotiations.
Finally, this report’s theme chapter on “Strengthening Disaster Resilience” documents how disaster risk and costs are rising, and Asia is particularly vulnerable. Resilience under natural hazards requires further strengthening.