M&A dealscape highlights the M&A deal activity in India over the last 4 quarters (July 2017 to June 2018), together with insights on macro-economic scenario and key deal rationales by sector.
This document provides a weekly media update with news articles from August 20th, 2018 related to the Indian economy and key industries. Several articles discuss India's trade deficit widening to over a five-year high in July due to higher oil and gold imports. Other articles report on the government's plans to meet its divestment target through share buybacks in 6-8 public sector companies and potential sales of stakes in Coal India and other power sector firms. Inflation rates declined in July while the weakening rupee is expected to increase India's oil import bill.
The analysis of corporate performance for the second
quarter of FY18 signals mixed trends, with the top-line
growing at a respectable rate even as the bottom-line
of firms is getting crimped due to the rising operating
costs and GST related uncertainty.
The document discusses factors impacting India's inflation rate and whether its monetary policy committee should adopt a more hawkish stance. Key points include: (1) India's inflation target is 4% +/- 2% but threats like rising oil prices, currency depreciation, and foreign outflows push inflation higher; (2) Oil price increases directly impact manufacturing costs and inflation; and (3) While inflation is currently just above target, adopting a more restrictive monetary policy by raising interest rates could help keep inflation in check if threats persist long-term and prevent offsetting economic growth.
Industrial growth in India recovered in April, with industrial production growing 4.9% compared to 4.5% in March. All major sectors - manufacturing, mining, and electricity - contributed to the recovery. Nomura expects GDP growth to be faster in the first half of the current fiscal year but may face pressure in the second half, ending at 7.5%. Retail inflation rose to a 4-month high of 4.9% in May due to higher fuel, housing, and food prices, while industrial output growth remained steady in April.
Kharif crop output for the recent harvest season was lower than last year for all crops except rice and jute, with total acreage sown down 2.3% due to poor timing of rains. Inflation rates remained high in August according to several indices, though wholesale price inflation is expected to ease to around 11% by year's end if oil prices do not spike again. The rupee has depreciated nearly 6% against the dollar in September and continues to face depreciation pressure due to high crude oil prices and domestic demand, with the currency expected to remain between 46-47.5 in the coming months.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2016. It finds that the US GDP grew at a healthy 3.2% in Q3 2016, driven by increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and exports. The service sector remained stable, while manufacturing returned to modest expansion. Housing demand continued to outweigh supply, keeping home prices rising. Emerging markets showed improved outlooks, while risks and uncertainties increased in Europe. Overall, the US economy performed relatively well compared to other developed nations, and further growth is expected in 2017, aiding equity market gains.
M&A dealscape highlights the M&A deal activity in India over the last 4 quarters (July 2017 to June 2018), together with insights on macro-economic scenario and key deal rationales by sector.
This document provides a weekly media update with news articles from August 20th, 2018 related to the Indian economy and key industries. Several articles discuss India's trade deficit widening to over a five-year high in July due to higher oil and gold imports. Other articles report on the government's plans to meet its divestment target through share buybacks in 6-8 public sector companies and potential sales of stakes in Coal India and other power sector firms. Inflation rates declined in July while the weakening rupee is expected to increase India's oil import bill.
The analysis of corporate performance for the second
quarter of FY18 signals mixed trends, with the top-line
growing at a respectable rate even as the bottom-line
of firms is getting crimped due to the rising operating
costs and GST related uncertainty.
The document discusses factors impacting India's inflation rate and whether its monetary policy committee should adopt a more hawkish stance. Key points include: (1) India's inflation target is 4% +/- 2% but threats like rising oil prices, currency depreciation, and foreign outflows push inflation higher; (2) Oil price increases directly impact manufacturing costs and inflation; and (3) While inflation is currently just above target, adopting a more restrictive monetary policy by raising interest rates could help keep inflation in check if threats persist long-term and prevent offsetting economic growth.
Industrial growth in India recovered in April, with industrial production growing 4.9% compared to 4.5% in March. All major sectors - manufacturing, mining, and electricity - contributed to the recovery. Nomura expects GDP growth to be faster in the first half of the current fiscal year but may face pressure in the second half, ending at 7.5%. Retail inflation rose to a 4-month high of 4.9% in May due to higher fuel, housing, and food prices, while industrial output growth remained steady in April.
Kharif crop output for the recent harvest season was lower than last year for all crops except rice and jute, with total acreage sown down 2.3% due to poor timing of rains. Inflation rates remained high in August according to several indices, though wholesale price inflation is expected to ease to around 11% by year's end if oil prices do not spike again. The rupee has depreciated nearly 6% against the dollar in September and continues to face depreciation pressure due to high crude oil prices and domestic demand, with the currency expected to remain between 46-47.5 in the coming months.
The document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2016. It finds that the US GDP grew at a healthy 3.2% in Q3 2016, driven by increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, and exports. The service sector remained stable, while manufacturing returned to modest expansion. Housing demand continued to outweigh supply, keeping home prices rising. Emerging markets showed improved outlooks, while risks and uncertainties increased in Europe. Overall, the US economy performed relatively well compared to other developed nations, and further growth is expected in 2017, aiding equity market gains.
The document provides a weekly media update with news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. It includes articles discussing the Modi government's plans to sell stakes in BPCL and other PSEs to raise funds, declining growth in India's manufacturing sector, falling oil and commodity prices, and India's strategy to leverage oil imports to gain access to overseas markets for its energy companies.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
- The FICCI Economic Outlook Survey estimates India's GDP growth for 2016-17 at 6.8%, lower than the previous estimate of 7.3%.
- Key factors include a projected slowdown in growth for the industry and services sectors due to demonetization's impact on cash-dependent informal sectors.
- Agriculture is expected to see growth of 3.2% for 2016-17 due to good monsoons, while industry and services are forecast to grow 5.7% and 8.5% respectively.
- Inflation is projected to remain benign with WPI at 3.4% and CPI at 4.7% for 2016-17.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
Business Confidence Survey points that market demand has weakened following demonetization and that Union Budget 2017-18 is crucial for stimulating economy
This document provides a summary of news articles from the past week related to the Indian economy and public sector enterprises (PSEs). Some of the key points include:
- India is expected to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world for the second quarter in a row, with GDP growth of 7.4%. However, doubts remain about India's new GDP calculation method.
- The Finance Minister said that inflation is under control and the economy is in revival mode, on track to meet the 8-8.5% growth target for the current fiscal year.
- A Moody's report placed India's economic strength relatively high compared to other countries due to its large size, growth rate, and expectations
SBI Mutual Fund provides you with the complete overview of the Union Budget 2017-18.
This presentation mainly focuses on the equity market and fixed income market conditions post the Budget.
Visit https://www.sbimf.com to learn more!
The document provides an equity market update for January 2019. It summarizes macroeconomic indicators for India and globally. For India, key points are GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, while inflation based on IIP and WPI increased. Domestic equity markets ended 2018 flat. The document recommends that investors continue investing in equity schemes, but also consider asset allocation funds given potential volatility around elections. It provides recommendations for both pure equity and balanced funds.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides a weekly media update comprising news clips from various media sources related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs). It includes news on the Indian economy, industries that Balmer Lawrie operates in, earnings of companies, policy changes impacting PSEs, and investments in oil and gas exploration. The update is intended to be uploaded on the intranet and website of Balmer Lawrie every Monday.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
The CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) for January-March 2017 quarter rose to an all-time high of
64.1 as against 56.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The sharp increase in business sentiment has
majorly been driven by a significant uptrend in the Expectations Index (EI) though the Current Situation
Index (CSI) also improved marginally.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document discusses empowering micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in India. It outlines some key policies and initiatives that have impacted MSMEs recently, both positively and negatively. These include banning letter of undertakings to check banking irregularities, addressing issues from demonetization, and the impacts of implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Overall, the MSME sector contributes significantly to the Indian economy but still faces challenges around access to finance, regulations and compliance that need to be addressed for it to reach its full potential.
This document provides a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie, an Indian public sector enterprise. It includes news articles from September 17, 2018 mentioning Balmer Lawrie as well as other news related to public sector enterprises, the Indian economy, and Balmer Lawrie's business sectors. The update also lists several online news articles with links. Key topics covered include Balmer Lawrie's annual general meeting, strategies for container freight station operators in response to direct port delivery, measures to control India's current account deficit and inflation rates, industrial production and export/import figures.
This document provides a weekly media update for Balmer Lawrie, summarizing news related to the company, PSEs, and industries Balmer Lawrie operates in. It includes news clips from various media sources between May 31 and June 4, 2018. Key topics covered include the Indian economy growing at 7.7% in Q4 FY2018, forecasts for 7-7.5% GDP growth in FY2019, and updates on PSE policies regarding promotions, sabbaticals, and reducing government stakes in CPSEs.
The key direct tax proposals include increasing the surcharge on individuals earning over Rs. 1 crore to 15%, taxing dividend income over Rs. 10 lakhs at 10%, and introducing an equalization levy of 6% on non-resident companies for digital transactions. Notable corporate tax proposals include a concessional 10% tax rate for income from patents developed in India, 100% deduction of profits for 3 years for eligible startups, and phasing out of certain tax exemptions by 2020. The budget also introduced an income declaration scheme and a direct tax dispute resolution scheme.
Economic recovery remains lackluster...
Real GDP growth improved to 2.4% (Q3'18: 1.8%), sustaining its quarterly climb from Q2'18. The marginal improvement in GDP continues to be driven wholly by expansion in non-oil sector activities, which grew further to 2.7%. This time around, the agriculture sector also contributed to the sustained improvement in the sector, even as the services sector continues to undergird non-oil growth.
However, when compared with the corresponding quarter in 2017 (Q4'17: 2.1%), GDP growth was marginal. This indicates that the country's economic recovery remains flat and below expectations.
Read our detailed analysis of Nigeria's Q4'18 GDP figures and other economic projections in our latest Nigeria Economic Alert.
The document provides an outlook for global and Indian markets in 2019. Some of the key points covered include:
- Global growth is expected to slow slightly in 2019 compared to 2018. The US is expected to see a soft economic landing as fiscal stimulus fades. China will see a calibrated slowdown.
- Emerging markets are in a better position to benefit from supportive macroeconomic conditions like stable oil prices and a weaker US dollar. However, they remain vulnerable to rising US interest rates.
- Indian GDP growth is forecast to remain robust in 2019 and 2020, supported by macroeconomic stability and various growth drivers. Earnings growth and valuations remain positive for Indian equity markets.
The document provides a weekly media update with news related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs) in India. It includes articles discussing the Modi government's plans to sell stakes in BPCL and other PSEs to raise funds, declining growth in India's manufacturing sector, falling oil and commodity prices, and India's strategy to leverage oil imports to gain access to overseas markets for its energy companies.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
- The FICCI Economic Outlook Survey estimates India's GDP growth for 2016-17 at 6.8%, lower than the previous estimate of 7.3%.
- Key factors include a projected slowdown in growth for the industry and services sectors due to demonetization's impact on cash-dependent informal sectors.
- Agriculture is expected to see growth of 3.2% for 2016-17 due to good monsoons, while industry and services are forecast to grow 5.7% and 8.5% respectively.
- Inflation is projected to remain benign with WPI at 3.4% and CPI at 4.7% for 2016-17.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
Business Confidence Survey points that market demand has weakened following demonetization and that Union Budget 2017-18 is crucial for stimulating economy
This document provides a summary of news articles from the past week related to the Indian economy and public sector enterprises (PSEs). Some of the key points include:
- India is expected to remain the fastest growing major economy in the world for the second quarter in a row, with GDP growth of 7.4%. However, doubts remain about India's new GDP calculation method.
- The Finance Minister said that inflation is under control and the economy is in revival mode, on track to meet the 8-8.5% growth target for the current fiscal year.
- A Moody's report placed India's economic strength relatively high compared to other countries due to its large size, growth rate, and expectations
SBI Mutual Fund provides you with the complete overview of the Union Budget 2017-18.
This presentation mainly focuses on the equity market and fixed income market conditions post the Budget.
Visit https://www.sbimf.com to learn more!
The document provides an equity market update for January 2019. It summarizes macroeconomic indicators for India and globally. For India, key points are GDP growth slowed in the second quarter, while inflation based on IIP and WPI increased. Domestic equity markets ended 2018 flat. The document recommends that investors continue investing in equity schemes, but also consider asset allocation funds given potential volatility around elections. It provides recommendations for both pure equity and balanced funds.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides a weekly media update comprising news clips from various media sources related to Balmer Lawrie and other public sector enterprises (PSEs). It includes news on the Indian economy, industries that Balmer Lawrie operates in, earnings of companies, policy changes impacting PSEs, and investments in oil and gas exploration. The update is intended to be uploaded on the intranet and website of Balmer Lawrie every Monday.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India from the perspective of an advisory firm. It discusses positive developments in the domestic economy including higher than expected GDP growth in the first quarter and signs of recovery in industrial production. Inflation remains high but fuel prices are declining. The new government is pursuing reforms and the outlook is hopeful for continued economic revival. Globally, recovery is ongoing in the US and Eurozone which supports Indian markets, while falling oil prices are a major positive.
The CII Business Confidence Index (CII- BCI) for January-March 2017 quarter rose to an all-time high of
64.1 as against 56.5 recorded in the previous quarter. The sharp increase in business sentiment has
majorly been driven by a significant uptrend in the Expectations Index (EI) though the Current Situation
Index (CSI) also improved marginally.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document discusses empowering micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in India. It outlines some key policies and initiatives that have impacted MSMEs recently, both positively and negatively. These include banning letter of undertakings to check banking irregularities, addressing issues from demonetization, and the impacts of implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Overall, the MSME sector contributes significantly to the Indian economy but still faces challenges around access to finance, regulations and compliance that need to be addressed for it to reach its full potential.
This document provides a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie, an Indian public sector enterprise. It includes news articles from September 17, 2018 mentioning Balmer Lawrie as well as other news related to public sector enterprises, the Indian economy, and Balmer Lawrie's business sectors. The update also lists several online news articles with links. Key topics covered include Balmer Lawrie's annual general meeting, strategies for container freight station operators in response to direct port delivery, measures to control India's current account deficit and inflation rates, industrial production and export/import figures.
This document provides a weekly media update for Balmer Lawrie, summarizing news related to the company, PSEs, and industries Balmer Lawrie operates in. It includes news clips from various media sources between May 31 and June 4, 2018. Key topics covered include the Indian economy growing at 7.7% in Q4 FY2018, forecasts for 7-7.5% GDP growth in FY2019, and updates on PSE policies regarding promotions, sabbaticals, and reducing government stakes in CPSEs.
The key direct tax proposals include increasing the surcharge on individuals earning over Rs. 1 crore to 15%, taxing dividend income over Rs. 10 lakhs at 10%, and introducing an equalization levy of 6% on non-resident companies for digital transactions. Notable corporate tax proposals include a concessional 10% tax rate for income from patents developed in India, 100% deduction of profits for 3 years for eligible startups, and phasing out of certain tax exemptions by 2020. The budget also introduced an income declaration scheme and a direct tax dispute resolution scheme.
Economic recovery remains lackluster...
Real GDP growth improved to 2.4% (Q3'18: 1.8%), sustaining its quarterly climb from Q2'18. The marginal improvement in GDP continues to be driven wholly by expansion in non-oil sector activities, which grew further to 2.7%. This time around, the agriculture sector also contributed to the sustained improvement in the sector, even as the services sector continues to undergird non-oil growth.
However, when compared with the corresponding quarter in 2017 (Q4'17: 2.1%), GDP growth was marginal. This indicates that the country's economic recovery remains flat and below expectations.
Read our detailed analysis of Nigeria's Q4'18 GDP figures and other economic projections in our latest Nigeria Economic Alert.
The document provides an outlook for global and Indian markets in 2019. Some of the key points covered include:
- Global growth is expected to slow slightly in 2019 compared to 2018. The US is expected to see a soft economic landing as fiscal stimulus fades. China will see a calibrated slowdown.
- Emerging markets are in a better position to benefit from supportive macroeconomic conditions like stable oil prices and a weaker US dollar. However, they remain vulnerable to rising US interest rates.
- Indian GDP growth is forecast to remain robust in 2019 and 2020, supported by macroeconomic stability and various growth drivers. Earnings growth and valuations remain positive for Indian equity markets.
Triggers to watch out for:
1. Breaking down GDP Numbers
2. Equity Valuations Update
3. Why ICICI Prudential Accrual Funds
4. Investment Philosophy
Have a detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
This document provides a weekly media update from Balmer Lawrie with news clips from September 3, 2018 related to the Indian economy and Balmer Lawrie's business sectors. Key points include:
- The RBI expects India's GDP growth to reach 7.4% in the current fiscal year due to increased industrial activity and a good monsoon.
- GDP growth accelerated to an over two-year high of 8.2% in the first quarter of 2018-2019, driven by expansion in manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer spending.
- India is projected to become the world's fifth largest economy in 2019 by overtaking Britain.
We are pleased to release the December 2018 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. This issue departs from our traditional highlight of private transactions on the continent across countries to take a vantage point view of quarterly activity between 2017 and 2018. Additionally, this issue gives a review of our opinion articles published on various platforms in 2018 including Next Billion and the London School of Economics Business Review.
Monthly Asset class performance & outlookvignesh SBK
The summary provides an overview of key economic and market updates from various countries and sectors based on an advisory report from Hedge Research & Strategies Group.
The report notes that major equity markets were mixed in April with the Nifty up 0.65% while DAX was down 0.95%. Major bond yields declined. Commodity prices were also mixed. The US economy showed signs of recovery while Eurozone growth was led by Germany. Japan raised sales tax but saw a wider trade deficit. China took steps to steady its slowing economy.
In India, markets saw bullish trends on election optimism. RBI kept rates unchanged. Various sectors are analyzed including metals, banking, IT, automobiles and FMCG
From the Desk of the CEO.
The heat is on. While many of us have been vacationing in cooler climes, the Sensex has kept itself rather busy, gaining another 4% during the month of May. The upmove has come largely on the back of better-than-expected corporate results and expectations of a good monsoon. Markets are also taking cognisance of various indicators like improved auto sales, higher steel and cement offtake, public infrastructure spending, etc. which are positive signs of an imminent economic recovery.
Crude prices have silently crept up and are currently hovering at the $50 level, almost double from the January lows. So despite the adverse implications of higher crude prices on the Indian economy, there seems to be some positive correlation between crude prices and the equity markets. Though this pattern may not have always played out in the last few decades, the first few months of 2016 certainly seem to indicate so. The main reason for this is the significantly high weightage that the Energy sector has in indices the world over. When oil plummeted to sub-$30 levels, it seriously impacted the profitability of some of the world’s biggest corporations, not only causing their stock prices to fall sharply, but also impacting the broader markets in general. It also indicated a global recessionary trend, thus affecting investor sentiment and causing them to become nervous and risk-averse. The bounce back in crude has brought the price to a level that makes it profitable for companies to drill, creating a sense of well-being for both, the Energy sector as well as the countries whose economies are dependent solely on oil. Where crude prices go from here remains to be seen.
After several quarters of benign inflation, the WPI rose to 0.34% while retail inflation soared to 5.39% in April 2016. This, coupled with higher oil prices would make it difficult for Governor Rajan to announce a rate cut at the next RBI policy meeting on 7th June. Across the globe however, Janet Yellen’s comments on improving economic data in the US has the markets believing that a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve is a high possibility during its next meeting in mid-June. The outcome of Britain’s referendum on Brexit is also an event that we will be closely watching.
With markets factoring in all the good news for now, conventional logic says that short term investors need to be cautious. But when the stock market catches momentum, all negative predictions may be proven wrong.
There are of course, many more bulls than bears when it comes to a 1 year plus view. Long term investors may continue their investments and look to buy into any dips.
Wish all of you a happy monsoon season.
The Year 2018 was the penultimate Year before Nigeria's general elections and the political economic dynamics in 2018 significantly signposted the prognoses for 2019. Added to the macro and global political economic factors, the 2018 review and 2019 outlook is a presentation of a strategic analytical insight and forecast to the dynamic scenarios that will help shape the social, political and economic narratives and outcomes in Nigeria in 2019. It has chronicled the policy, social, economic and business factors that will influence the direction of national discourse in 2019. It is a valuable tool for all Strategic and Policy Leaders in the Public and Private sectors of Nigeria's economy. It is an invaluable resource for Organizational development and People management leaders as they help organizations chart a viable and strategic course for 2019. It is hoped that this presentation will help all stakeholders to better manage the risk factors, expectations and leverage the opportunities that lies ahead in 2019. Wishing you all a very a tactically deliberate, positively impactful and sustainably productive 2019. Cheers!
The document is an IR presentation that provides an overview of Vietnam's macroeconomics, banking sector, and highlights of VietinBank. It discusses Vietnam achieving its highest GDP growth in 9 years and inflation being controlled at a low level. Export and import turnover reached record surpluses while FDI continued to prosper. The banking sector saw guaranteed liquidity and slightly higher deposit rates. The presentation then provides details on VietinBank, including its strong governance structure and organizational setup, as well as investment highlights such as its large charter capital, network, brand, and shareholder base.
The document provides an overview of the global and Indian economies in 2018-19. It discusses key factors such as a decline in global growth to 3.3% in 2019, India remaining the fastest growing major economy at 6.8% despite a slowdown, and domestic drivers of growth including consumption, investment, and net exports. The supply side saw moderation in the agriculture, industry and services sectors. Inflation declined while the current account deficit and fiscal deficit narrowed.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
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The document provides an analysis of the Indian two and three wheeler automobile industry. It discusses key trends such as India being the largest market for two and three wheelers as well as a top manufacturer globally. The two wheeler segment in India accounts for around 79% of total vehicle sales and has seen strong growth. The industry produced over 29 million vehicles in 2017-18, up 14.78% from the previous year. Segment sales of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and two and three wheelers are also provided.
Triggers to watch out for -
General Election Outcome
Budget to be presented post elections
Re-balancing of MSCI Indices
Monsoon
Crude price volatility
FII flows trend
Rich Market Valuations
A detailed insight into a monthly equity and fixed income market outlook.
Read the full document to know more.
The document provides an equity market outlook and summaries of domestic and global macroeconomic news. Key points:
- Indian equity markets saw a pause in rally last week due to higher-than-expected inflation and a contraction in industrial production. Volatility is expected due to upcoming events like the US Fed meeting and Brexit vote.
- India's industrial output contracted 0.8% in April, while inflation is expected to rise in May.
- Macroeconomic data from other regions like the US, UK, China is also included.
- Market indices, commodity prices, currency rates and debt yields from the past week are presented.
The document contains several news articles related to the Indian economy:
1) The OECD expects India's economy to grow close to 7.5% in 2019 and 2020, though higher oil prices and currency depreciation may slow growth slightly.
2) GDP growth in Q2 of FY19 is estimated to be robust at 7.2-7.9% despite some economic headwinds, keeping India among the fastest growing major economies.
3) PM Modi aims to further improve India's ranking in the World Bank's ease of doing business index and launched a challenge seeking ideas to streamline government processes using new technologies.
The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
- Core inflation in India declined to 4.5% in June from 4.7% previously, which may support a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBI in August. Industrial growth also turned positive in April after contracting previously.
- Financial results from companies so far have been better than expected, though IT sector disappointed due to Brexit. Global markets are focused on upcoming earnings season in India.
- The Bank of England is expected to cut rates to a record low of 0.25% to cushion the UK economy from Brexit shock. China's land and wage growth slowed in the first half of 2016 due to overcapacity issues.
This document provides an equity market update for October 2018. It summarizes macroeconomic indicators for India and globally. Domestically, key factors dampening the Indian equity market in September included a weakening rupee, liquidity concerns in the NBFC sector, and rising crude oil prices. Globally, ongoing trade tensions and interest rate hikes contributed to volatility. Going forward, the document recommends asset allocation funds for new investors given ongoing uncertainties. It also provides recommendations for pure equity, long-term, thematic and sectoral equity funds.
The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
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Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Eco-Innovations and Firm Heterogeneity.Evidence from Italian Family and Nonf...
KCM M&A Dealscape 2018
1. For private circulation only
M&A dealscape
January 2018 to December 2018
Deal dynamics in India
2. For private circulation only
2
Contents
Section Page
1. Macro economic snapshot 3
2. Overall M&A deal activity 7
3. M&A deal activity – domestic vs cross border 8
4. M&A deal activity by sector 9
Appendix Page
A. Glossary 20
B. References 21
C. Disclaimer 22
3. For private circulation only
3
Macro economic snapshot
Challenges
• The growth momentum in the economy has been weakening with
high import dependencies, slowdown in private investments, weak
aggregate demand and a tepid wage growth rate.
• A rapidly depreciating rupee and rising crude oil prices adversely
impacted India’s current account deficit. Further, the Indian market
lost its attractiveness among FPIs and witnessed withdrawals driven
by negative market sentiment and political uncertainty ahead of the
general elections.
• Whilst India has done considerably well in terms of moving up the
ranking in terms of ease of doing business, there is lot to done to
reach a level that creates enthusiasm for overseas investors. FDI is
important as India would require huge investments in the coming
years to overhaul its infrastructure sector to boost growth. A decline
in foreign inflows could put pressure on the country's balance of
payments and may also further impact value of the rupee.
Macro economic snapshot
Summary
• India retained its position as the world’s fastest growing large
economy in 2018 combating volatility in an environment of rising
oil prices, a devalued currency and increased trade wars.
• India recorded a further jump of 23 positions on the World Bank’s
ease of doing business index by scaling up to 77th rank in 2018 from
100th rank in 2017.
• Indian economy witnessed a sporadic growth rate of 8.2% during
Apr-Jun 2018, which subsequently plunged to 7.1% in the following
quarter. In run up to the general elections, Government is now
shifting focus to expedite reforms with a view to accelerate growth.
• A major positive development during the year was the progress
made under IBC. The NCLT has so far resolved insolvency and
bankruptcy proceedings involving more than INR 60,000 Cr and is
expected to swell much beyond in 2019 with several big ticket
insolvency cases in the process of being resolved.
Outlook
As the government shifts focus towards accelerating growth, the investment cycle that has started picking up will gather further strength as more
private investments are expected. At the same time, the current moderate growth situation, ahead of the general elections, has forced the government
to spend more leading to increased fiscal and inflationary pressures.
However, active measures taken by the government to promote growth and investment, recapitalisation of public sector banks and increased GST
collections contribute to an optimistic outlook coupled with a forward looking budget recently presented by the ruling NDA government.
4. For private circulation only
4
Macro economic snapshot
Foreign direct investment (FDI) - Equity inflows
• India received USD 22 Bn of FDI during the first half of 2018 (Jan-
Jun 2018) and made it to the top 10 economies receiving the most
FDI during this period, ahead of China. However, FDI inflows
declined to USD 9.9 Bn during Jul-Sep 2018 in the backdrop of a
global decline in FDI flows.
• Overall, the recent global financial scenario has not been optimistic
owing to the tax reforms implemented by the US government to
bring home higher earnings from abroad.
• However, the Government is taking steps to promote investment by
making major sectors open to 100% FDI and also initiating
regulatory and procedural reforms.
Macro economic snapshot
Gross domestic product (GDP)
Note: GDP for Oct-Dec 2018 is as per Financial Express estimate
• The Indian economy grew at a decent pace up to Jun 2018. The
economic growth during Apr-Jun 2018 at 8.2% was at its highest in
nine quarters.
• However, GDP growth rate declined to 7.1% in Jul-Sep 2018 and is
estimated at 7.3% in Oct-Dec 2018. The decline in growth was
primarily a result of weak Rupee, rising crude oil prices, reduction in
output and tight liquidity conditions in the financial markets.
• Despite recording slower growth in GDP, India’s growth rate
remained ahead of China. Further, GDP as well as GVA growth
improved as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
10,587
8,916
12,752
9,912
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Oct-Dec'17 Jan-Mar '18 Apr-Jun '18 Jul-Sep '18
USDMn
7.7%
8.2%
7.1%
7.3%
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
8%
8%
Jan-Mar '18 Apr-Jun '18 Jul-Sep '18 Oct-Dec '18
GDPgrowthrate
5. For private circulation only
5
Macro economic snapshot
Inflation (WPI) and Interest rates
Note: WPI% for Nov’18 and Dec’18 are provisional
• Wholesale price index was at a high between Jun-18 to Oct-18
followed by a gradual decline. The increase was primarily driven by
food and fuel prices. This was followed by a decline in Nov-18 and
Dec-18 (provisional), due to the decline in global crude oil prices,
disinflation in prices of primary food products and some impact of
the appreciation in the rupee on the price of imports.
• The RBI increased the repo rate by 25 basis points consequently for
the second time in Aug-18 to 6.5% with a view to curtail the rising
inflation and maintain a target of 4%. This move was made amidst
an uncertainty in global financial markets, rising trade barriers and
vulnerable crude oil prices.
Macro economic snapshot
Foreign exchange rate movement
• Value of Indian rupee against the US dollar witnessed an all time
low during 2018, with a high of INR 63.6 per USD in Jan-18 and a
low of INR 73.7 in Oct-18. The plunge was primarily a result of
higher oil prices, fears of global trade war triggered by US and
China’s retaliatory import policies, FPI outflows due to volatility in
stock markets and widening current account deficit.
• In response to the above, the government took measures including
removal of withholding tax on masala bonds, relaxation for FPI
rules, easier ECB facilities, and curbs on non essential imports to
contain the widening current account deficit. During the last two
months of 2018, drop in oil prices provided a temporary relief to the
continuing fall in value of rupee.
63.6 64.4 65.0 65.6
67.5 67.8 68.7 69.5
72.2
73.7
71.8
70.7
58.0
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
Jan
'18
Feb
'18
Mar
'18
Apr
'18
May
'18
Jun
'18
Jul
'18
Aug
'18
Sep
'18
Oct
'18
Nov
'18
Dec
'18
INR/USD
3.0% 2.7% 2.7%
3.6%
4.8%
5.7% 5.3%
4.6%
5.2% 5.5%
4.6%
3.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Jul'18
Aug'18
Sep'18
Oct'18
Nov'18
Dec'18
WPI%
6. For private circulation only
6
Macro economic snapshot
Purchasing manager’s index (PMI)
• Manufacturing PMI recorded successive months of expansion (i.e.
above 50) during 2018. This was facilitated by increase in output and
new orders, input price inflation, increase in export orders, reduction
in inventories held by manufacturing companies and an increase in
employment growth rate.
• Service sector PMI reflected intermittent expansion and contraction
up to May-18 due to a slowdown in demand and employment in
service sector. However, it witnessed consistent expansion after Jun-
18 primarily supported by increase in service orders, rising input
costs due to inflationary pressure, and a consequent rise in
employment rate.
Macro economic snapshot
Index of industrial production (IIP)
Note: IIP growth % for Nov’18 is provisional and Dec’18 is as per CARE forecast
• IIP comprises of mining, electricity and manufacturing sectors. The
high growth in Jun-18 and Jul-18 was primarily due to improvement
in performance by the manufacturing sector and higher offtake of
capital goods and consumer durables.
• IIP growth rate was highest at 8.4% in Oct-18 due to a favorable
base effect and robust output in all key sectors aided by a boost in
demand ahead of the festive season. However, industrial growth
plummeted to 0.48% in Nov-18, the lowest in 17 months, as a result
of post festive season decline in manufacturing, an adverse base
effect and tighter liquidity due to slowdown in the NBFC sector.
52.4 52.1
51.0
51.6 51.2
53.1
52.3
51.7 52.2
53.1
54.0
53.2
51.7
47.8
50.3
51.4
49.6
52.6
54.2
51.5
50.9
52.2
53.7 53.2
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Jul'18
Aug'18
Sep'18
Oct'18
Nov'18
Dec'18
PMI
Manufacturing PMI Service PMI
7.5%
6.9%
5.3%
4.5%
3.8%
7.0%
6.5%
4.8%4.5%
8.4%
0.5%
2.50%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Jan'18
Feb'18
Mar'18
Apr'18
May'18
Jun'18
Jul'18
Aug'18
Sep'18
Oct'18
Nov'18
Dec'18
YoYIIPgrowth%
7. For private circulation only
7
Overall M&A deal activity
• Further, improved regulatory framework after the introduction of the
IBC, RERA and GST made inbound investments more attractive.
IBC in particular has been in focus backed by the urge to resolve
large amounts of NPA and steps are being taken to speed up the
insolvency process.
• Another major contributor to increased M&A activity during H1 has
been the need for consolidation, with domestic companies increasing
focus on scale of operations and market expansion in light of
growing competition and efforts to optimize capital structures.
• At the same time, a number of assets are on the block as huge
corporates are increasing focus on churning their portfolios and
looking to exit non-core operations and increase strategic
investments.
• However, as suggested by the macro economic indicators, Indian
economy faced a slowdown during the second half of the year, with a
low GDP growth rate, reduced FDI and a devaluing rupee. This
sentiment was reflected in the M&A activity which plummeted to
less than 50% in value terms.
• Further, uncertainties surrounding the upcoming general elections,
continuing trade wars in the global environment, exchange rate
fluctuations and poor fiscal conditions owing to high oil prices, may
further act as a temporary roadblock.
Overall M&A deal activity
Summary
• M&A deal activity in value as well as volume terms was higher
during the first half of 2018 as compared to the last six months.
• M&A activity during the first half of the year was indicative of a
relatively stable economy post major structural changes in the
previous two years, liberalization of government policies and
continued efforts to remove regulatory hurdles and attract foreign
investment.
54,795
24,410
271 186
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Half yearly deal activity
Value Volume
8. For private circulation only
8
M&A deal activity – domestic vs cross border
• M&A deal volumes were dominated by domestic deals in 2018.
However, in terms of value, cross border deals outpaced domestic
deals in H2 2018. Higher domestic deal value in H1 2018 was driven
by a few large ticket deals including Tata Steel’s acquisition of
Bhushan Steel under the IBC for USD 5.6 Bn, and ONGC’s strategic
acquisition of majority stake in HPCL for USD 5.8 Bn. Domestic
deal value in H2 2018 was primarily contributed by HUL’s
acquisition of GSK Consumer Health business for USD 4.5 Bn.
• Key sectors contributing to higher domestic deal values were
materials, telecom, energy and consumer staples. Whereas, major
contributors to deal volumes were IT, financials, consumer
discretionary and industrials sectors.
M&A deal activity – domestic vs cross border
• Higher cross border deal value during H1 2018 was primarily driven
by a major inbound deal i.e. Flipkart’s acquisition by Walmart for
USD 16 Bn, whereas the major driver during H2 2018 was a surge in
outbound activity. Major deals in H2 2018 included UPL’s
acquisition of Arysta Lifescience for USD 4.2 Bn, acquisition of US
based aluminium producer Aleris Corp by Hindalco’s arm Novelis
for USD 2.6 Bn, and Aurobindo Pharma’s acquisition of the
dermatology and oral solids business of Sandoz Inc.
• Key sectors contributing to higher cross border deal values were
consumer discretionary, materials and IT. Whereas, healthcare and
industrials sector contributed significantly to deal volumes.
32,576
8,838
191
120
-
50
100
150
200
250
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Domestic
Value Volume
22,220
15,57280
66
-
20
40
60
80
100
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Cross border
Value Volume
9. For private circulation only
9
M&A deal activity by sector
Summary (contd.)
• IT sector contributed c. 7% in H1 and c. 9% in H2 of the total M&A
deal values primarily comprising of deals in the software and
services space. Deals were primarily driven by investments in
emerging technologies.
• Energy sector contributed c. 11% of the total M&A deal values in
H1 that primarily comprised of the deal representing ONGC’s
strategic acquisition of HPCL.
• Consumer staples represented c. 21% of the total M&A deal values
in H2. Major activity in this sector was observed in the food
products industry with HUL’s acquisition of GSK Consumer Health.
• Industrials contributed c. 5% in H1 and 7% in H2 of the total M&A
deal values during the period with major activity witnessed in the
engineering and electrical equipment industry.
• Utilities sector contributed c. 6% in H1 and 4% in H2 to the total
M&A deal values with major activity in the electric utilities space,
which primarily included thermal and renewable power generation
businesses.
• Healthcare sector represented c.13% of the total M&A deal values in
H2. Major activity was observed in the healthcare services and
pharmaceuticals space.
• Financials contributed c. 4% in H1 and 3% in H2 to the total M&A
deal values, wherein major activity was observed in consumer
finance, real estate, insurance and diversified financial services.
M&A deal activity by sector
Summary
• Consumer discretionary sector contributed c. 32% in H1 and c. 9% in
H2 of the total M&A deal values. M&A activity was dominated by
cross border deals in the e-commerce retail industry led by Walmart’s
acquisition of Flipkart.
• Materials sector contributed c. 21% in H1 and c. 32% in H2 of the
total M&A deal values in 2018, primarily led by deals in the steel
and alloys industry.
• Telecom sector represented c. 13% in H1 and c. 2% in H2 of the total
deal values, primarily due to consolidation and divestment in the
telecom tower and infrastructure businesses.
17,576
2,274
11,743
7,787
6,929
417
4,015
2,256
5,878
5,203
2,812
1,650
3,087
961
3,227
2,117 635
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
H1 2018 H2 2018
Financials
Health Care
Utilities
Industrials
Consumer Staples
Energy
Information technology
Telecommunication Services
Materials
Consumer discretionary
10. For private circulation only
10
Consumer discretionary
Summary
• Consumer discretionary sector comprises of industries such as
consumer durables & apparel, consumer services, media, retailing,
and automobiles & components.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• Walmart’s acquisition of Flipkart for USD 16 Bn gave Walmart a
much needed entry into the Indian retail space against its US arch
rival Amazon. The deal also provided a highly profitable exit to the
early stage PE/VC investors in Flipkart.
• Reliance integrated its digital music service JioMusic with music
app Saavn in a deal valued at USD 227 Mn. The deal is expected to
strengthen Jio’s position in the Indian streaming market.
Key deals – H2 2018
• Cox and Kings Limited’s divestment of its education business, HB
Education Limited to Midlothian Capital Partners, a UK based PE
investor for USD 604 Mn with a view to unlock value and maximize
shareholder returns.
• Reliance Industries Ltd acquired majority stake in Hathway Cable
and Datacom Ltd for USD 600 Mn and Den Networks Ltd for USD
430 Mn, in a move aimed at becoming the largest player in the
broadband and cable TV and DTH market.
Outlook
Indian consumer market is witnessing growing demand supported by rise in disposable income, policy support in the form of FDI, measures to
reduce dependence on imports through incentives and increased investment. The Government has shown its support by approving 100% FDI in cable
and DTH platforms, Electronics Systems Design & Manufacturing sector. Hitherto, e-commerce was riding a wave in the consumer industry;
however, this trend may not sustain due to the recent regulatory changes governing the online retail space. Going forward, a convergence across
technology, media and telecom value chain is expected in terms of M&A deals.
17,576
2,274
50
31
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
11. For private circulation only
11
Materials
Summary
• Materials sector includes chemicals, construction materials,
containers & packaging, metals & mining, and paper & forest
products.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• Tata Steel’s acquisition of debt-laden Bhushan Steel for USD 5.6 Bn
vide a resolution plan submitted in accordance with the guidelines
under IBC was the largest deal in this space.
• Acquisition of bankrupt Monnet Ispat & Energy Ltd by JSW Steel,
AION Investments, Creixent Special Steels Ltd and JSW Techno
Projects Management Ltd for USD 1.6 Bn under IBC.
Key deals – H2 2018
• UPL Corporation acquired Arysta Life Science Inc. and its
subsidiaries for USD 4.2 Bn, making UPL one of the largest crop
protection companies with differentiated product portfolio, an
integrated supply chain and deep distribution capabilities.
• Hindalco’s wholly owned subsidiary Novelis Inc acquired Aleris
Corporation, a global aluminium major, for USD 2.6 Bn as part of its
growth strategy in aluminium value added products and to enhance
access to world class manufacturing capabilities for its existing
Indian operations.
Outlook
Opportunities in the cement industry are attractive as the government increases focus on infrastructure and housing for all. Further, a growing power
and cement industry, coupled with an increase in iron and steel demand, will aid the growth of metal and mining sector. Also, the government has
allowed 100% FDI in mining sector and exploration of metals and non-metal ores. Significant deal activity may be observed as players further
consolidate their market positions.
11,743
7,78737
13
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
12. For private circulation only
12
Telecommunication
Summary
• This sector primarily includes wireless and telecommunication
services and related infrastructure.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• Mobile tower firm Bharti Infratel is slated to merge with Indus
Towers to form the largest mobile tower operator outside China. The
combined entity will be jointly controlled by Airtel and Vodafone.
Erstwhile shareholders’ (Vodafone, Idea and Providence) 58% stake
in Indus Towers was valued at USD 6.2 Bn.
• Reliance Industries’ digital music service arm Jio Music’s strategic
integration with Saavn Media Pvt Ltd at USD 670 Mn for growth
and expansion of the platform into one of the largest streaming
services in the world with global reach, cross border content,
independent artist marketplace, consolidated data and one of the
largest mobile advertising mediums.
Key deals – H2 2018
• Tata Teleservices Maharashtra ltd and IDFC PE Fund’s sale of stake
in ATC Telecom Infrastructure Pvt Ltd to its majority shareholder
ATC for USD 400 Mn by exercising their put option.
Outlook
The liberal and reformist policies of the Government of India has been crucial to the sector’s development. The National Digital Communications
Policy 2018 has envisaged attracting investments worth USD 100 billion in the telecommunications sector by the year 2022. The deregulation of the
FDI norms may aggravate pressure on a highly competitive market with high spectrum costs and aggressive pricing. Theses factors are likely to
increase consolidation activity going forward.
6,929
417
3
2
-
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
13. For private circulation only
13
Information technology
Summary
• Information technology sector primarily includes software &
services, and technology hardware & equipment businesses.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• Acquisition of Intelenet Global Services’ BPO business by
Teleperformance (France) for USD 1 Bn providing an exit to
Blackstone.
• Merger of Birlasoft India with KPIT Technologies was valued at
USD 700 Mn, whereby the combined entity will later be split into
two companies with one entity focusing on automotive engineering
& mobility solutions and the other on enterprise digital business.
Key deals – H2 2018
• HCL Technologies Ltd’s acquisition of software products from IBM
valued at USD 1.8 Bn, making it HCL’s biggest bet as a part of
building its software product business.
Further, cross border activity was on a rise during the year contributing
USD 4.7 Bn to the total deal value in 2018.
Outlook
India is the topmost offshore destination for IT companies and the global outsourcing market in India continues to grow at a higher pace. The
government has extended tax holidays to the IT sector for Software Technology Parks of India (STPI), Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and startups
and is also providing procedural ease and single window clearance for setting up facilities. The SMAC (Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud)
segment has become the new flavor of IT service companies and deal activity is expected to remain strong as these technologies persuade
organizations to build and deploy integrated solutions. By amending the MSIPS scheme, the Union Cabinet has incentivized investments in the
electronic goods sector with an aim to reduce dependence on imports by 2020.
4,015
2,256
62
44
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
14. For private circulation only
14
Energy
Summary
• Energy sector primarily comprises of oil & gas and energy
equipments & services business.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals
• M&A activity in the energy sector during 2018 was sluggish. The
high value in H1 2018 was a result of a single mega deal with no
large deal in H2 of 2018.
• One of the largest domestic deals in the oil & gas space includes the
acquisition of majority stake in HPCL by ONGC for USD 5.8 Bn,
making ONGC India’s first vertically integrated oil major with
presence across the entire value chain. The integrated business will
result in economies of scale and increase risk appetite to withstand
global oil market volatility. While ONGC is engaged in the
exploration and production of oil & gas, HPCL is engaged in
refining and marketing operations.
• Reliance Industries sold a part of its Eagle Ford shale assets to
Sundance Energy for USD 100 Mn. The sale was in conjunction with
the sale of assets by other interest owners in the joint development
with Reliance.
Outlook
India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand; therefore the need for oil & gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector
conducive for investment. With government’s ambitious green energy targets, the sector has become quite attractive for both foreign and domestic
investors supported by initiatives to boost the renewable energy sector, like the hydropower policy 2018-28, cleaner coal utilization plan, duty
benefits, etc. Further, the government is planning a major gas pricing reform by permitting trading of all domestic supply on local exchange, which
would help discover market price for gas locally and would help attract more investment in the sector.
5,878
0
4
1
-
1
2
3
4
5
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
15. For private circulation only
15
Consumer staples
Summary
• Consumer staples comprises of food & beverages, household &
personal products, and food and staples retailing business.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• Wilmar Sugar Holdings (Singapore) increased stake in Shree Renuka
Sugars by 17.38% for USD 95 Mn as part of a debt restructuring
program approved by the lenders of Shree Renuka Sugars.
Key deals – H2 2018
• HUL acquired GSK Consumer Healthcare Ltd for USD 4.5 Bn that
will consolidate HUL’s position as India’s largest FMCG company
with addition of health drinks products to its portfolio. As a part of
the deal, the mainstays of GSK including Boost, Horlicks and
Maltova shall move to HUL’s kitty.
• Zydus Wellness announced the acquisition of Heinz India Pvt Ltd
jointly with Cadila Healthcare Ltd for USD 625 Mn bringing in
brands like Complan, Glucon D, Nycil and Sampriti Ghee to its
basket including complementary distribution capabilities.
Outlook
Of the overall retail industry, food and grocery accounts for the largest share in revenue in India. India is the world’s second-largest producer of food
and its contribution to global consumption is only expected to increase. The Indian Government has recently approved 100% FDI in single brand
retail, while FDI in multi brand retail is capped at 51%, which is likely to intensify competition. India has replaced China as the most favorable
market for retail expansion, supported by a fast-growing economy, increasing consumption rates, rising urban population and a burgeoning middle
class. Further, the evolving preference for organic/natural products coupled with increasing focus on fitness and well being is likely to steer deal
activity in this niche segment.
236
5,203
12
7
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
16. For private circulation only
16
Industrials
Summary
• Industrials includes capital goods, transportation and commercial &
professional services business.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• L&T divested its electric and automation business to French
automation giant Schneider Electric for USD 2.1 Bn with a view to
exit non-core business, unlock value within the existing portfolio and
to streamline and allocate capital and management focus.
• Adani Ports’ acquisition of Kattupalli Port from L&T for USD 277
Mn would give Adani Ports a major presence in the highly
industrialized region of south-east India.
Key deals – H2 2018
• Volcan Investments Plc, that held 67% in London listed Vedanta
Resources Plc bought out the remaining stake for USD 1.03 Bn with
the view to take the company private to simplify the group structure.
This decision was taken amidst scrutiny against the company for
allegedly flouting environmental norms in its units in India.
• A booming electric vehicle market in India has caught the eye of
local companies. Megha Engineering and Infrastructure Ltd, one of
India’s biggest construction companies, acquired a controlling stake
in electric bus maker Olectra Greentech for USD 166 Mn.
Outlook
The engineering sector in India attracts immense interest from foreign players as it enjoys a comparative advantage in terms of manufacturing costs,
technology and innovation. The above, coupled with favourable regulatory policies and growth has enabled several foreign players to invest in India.
The sector has been delicensed and enjoys 100% FDI with an increased budget allocation and a focus on Make in India. Further, capacity creation in
other sectors such as infrastructure, power, steel, automotive and consumer durables is driving demand in the engineering sector.
2,812
1,650
33
34
33
33
34
34
35
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
17. For private circulation only
17
Utilities
Summary
• This sector primarily comprises of electricity, water and power
utilities.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• ReNew Power acquired Ostro Energy for USD 1.7 Bn, KCT
Renewable Energy for USD 175 Mn, Waaneep Solar for USD 92 Mn
and Rajasthan wind project of India Power Corporation for USD 10
Mn. These strategic acquisitions are seen to help ReNew Power
consolidate its position further in the fast-growing clean energy
sector in India.
Key deals – H2 2018
• Greenko Energy’s acquisition of Orange Renewable for USD 850
Mn and Skeiron Green Pvt Ltd for USD 530 Mn added an
incremental 1.13 GW of wind and solar assets to its portfolio, and
will drive capacity, EBITDA and revenue growth for Greenko.
• Singapore based Agritrade Resources Ltd acquired SKS Power
Generation from SKS Ispat and Power Ltd in a one time settlement
with its lenders for USD 299 Mn.
Outlook
Renewable energy is fast emerging as a major source of power in India. The government is looking at increasing growth avenues in the power
segment, driven by the target to achieve renewable installed capacity of 175 GW by FY22. The Government of India invited bids for the largest
manufacturing linked solar tender in the world, for installing 20 GW of solar power capacity, to give a boost to manufacturing of solar power
equipment in India. This however got a tepid response in the first round because of the aggressive timelines and huge capital expenditure involved.
Further, with the approval of the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018, the expected benefits include cleaner environment, employment generation and
reduced import dependency, boost to infrastructure investment in rural areas and additional income to farmers.
3,087
961
13 9
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
18. For private circulation only
18
Healthcare
Summary
• This sector includes health care equipment & services and
pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and life sciences.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H2 2018
• Malaysia’s IHH Healthcare completed acquisition of controlling
stake in cash strapped Fortis Healthcare, one of India’s leading
healthcare service providers, for USD 1.1 Bn marking it as a
transformational investment by IHH to expand its footprint in India.
• Aurobindo Pharma made a series of acquisitions outside India during
the year. The major deal was the acquisition of the dermatology and
oral solids business of Sandoz Inc for USD 1 Bn, as part of its
strategy to expand and diversify in the US market, making it the
second largest dermatology player and generics company in the US.
• P&G acquired majority stake in German drug maker Merck’s Indian
unit for USD 295 Mn with a view to expand P&G’s consumer
healthcare business by adding a portfolio of OTC brands to its
existing brands. For Merck, it was a strategic divestment to help
finance R&D activities and also to deleverage.
Outlook
India is the largest provider for generic drugs globally. The Pharma Vision 2020 by the Department of Pharmaceuticals aims to make India a global
leader in end-to-end drug manufacturing. Indian pharmaceutical industry enjoys the advantages of low cost of production and increased investment on
R&D, which has contributed to higher pharma exports. Further, the government increased its focus on healthcare by launching Ayushman Bharat,
world’s largest government funded healthcare scheme, in Sep-2018. India has also become one of the leading destinations for high-end diagnostic
services with increasing capital investment for advanced diagnostic facilities.
401
3,227
13
24
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
19. For private circulation only
19
Financials
Summary
• Financials include banking, insurance, real estate and other
diversified financial services.
M&A deal activity by sector
Key deals – H1 2018
• IDFC Bank acquired Capital First for USD 1.5 Bn pursuant to IDFC
Bank’s strategy of retailising its loan book and transforming itself
from a dedicated infrastructure financer to a diversified bank.
Key deals – H1 2018
• Singapore based Mapletree Investment Pte Ltd bought out securities
of Faery Estate Pvt Ltd from SPREP, owner of SP Infocity in
Chennai for USD 236 Mn with a view to strengthen its presence in
India and diversify its investment property portfolio across Asia.
• Belgium’s Ageas Insurance International agreed to acquire 40%
stake in Royal Sundaram General Insurance Co Ltd for USD 209 Mn
as part of its strategy of expanding in fast growing markets by
focusing on non-life insurance.
Outlook
Banking and NBFC segment will continue to see consolidation activity along with focus on recapitalization of PSU banks. The sector is also
expected to see greater innovations and newer business models that will boost digital payment solutions, thereby providing further momentum to deal
activity.
Future looks promising for the insurance industry with several changes in the regulatory framework. The National Health Protection Scheme under
Ayushman Bharat was launched, which aims to cover more than 100 million vulnerable families. Demographic factors such as growing middle class,
young insurable population, growing awareness of the need for protection, and retirement planning will support growth in the insurance sector.
Government’s focus on housing for all and successful measures to increase transparency and return after a successful implementation of RERA will
provide a boost to the real estate sector and attract higher investments.
2,117
635
44
21
-
10
20
30
40
50
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
H1 2018 H2 2018
USDMn
Value Volume
20. For private circulation only
20
A. Glossary
Bn Billion
BPO Business Process Outsourcing
Cr Crores
DTH Direct-To-Home
EBITDA
Earning Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and
Ammortization
ECB External Commercial Borrowing
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FMCG Fast Moving Consumer Goods
FPIs Foreign Portfolio Investors
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GST Goods and Service Tax
GVA Gross Value Added
H1 2018 Jan'18 - Jun'18
H2 2018 Jul'18 - Dec'18
IBC Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code
IIP Index of Industrial Production
IPO Initial Public Offer
IT Information Technology
Appendices
LTCG Long Term Capital Gains
Mn Million
MSIPS Modified Special Incentive Package Scheme
NBFC Non Banking Finance Company
NCLT National Company Law Tribunal
NPA Non Performing Assets
PE Private Equity
PMI Purchase Manager's Index
PSUs Public Sector Undertakings
R&D Research and Development
RBI Reserve Bank of India
RERA Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act
SEZs Special Economic Zones
SMAC Social, Mobile, Analytics and Cloud
STPI Software Technology Parks of India
USD US Dollar
VC Venture Capital
WPI Wholesale Price Index
21. For private circulation only
21
B. References
Appendices
Data sources
• M&A deal data – VCC (Venture Capital Circle) Edge Database
• GDP annual growth rate – Investing.com
• FDI equity inflows – Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion
• PMI – Tradingeconomics.com
• IIP – Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
• Foreign exchange rate – Reserve Bank of India
• WPI – Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion
Other references
• India Brand Equity Foundation
• Livemint
• Economic Times
• Financial Express
• Indiretailing.com
• Maxminindia.com
• Moneycontrol.com
• Business Standard
• India Today
• VCC
• Firstpost
22. For private circulation only
22
C. Disclaimer
Appendices
VCC database captures details of the deals announced based on the
information available in the public domain. The deal data is compiled for the
period 1 Jan 2018 to 31 Dec 2018. However, deals with undisclosed values
have been ignored for the purposes of this analysis.
Publicly available economic, industrial, statistical and sectoral information as
well as outlook have been obtained from the sources mentioned in Appendix
B. We make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such
information.
Views expressed in this document are solely based on the information and data
points as referred to in Appendix B. The views may differ depending upon
changes in facts, circumstances and regulatory provisions.
Readers may or may not fully subscribe to the views expressed in this
document. We do not take any responsibility for decisions taken by the readers
based on this information. Further, this document should not be relied upon as
a substitute to detailed advice.
The contents of this document do not necessarily reflect the views of K C
Mehta & Co. but remain solely those of the authors.
Authors
Chinmay Naik Sanjana Shah
Associate Director Assistant Manager