- The passage summarizes Pakistan's economic growth and challenges over recent years. It notes that GDP growth has been stuck at around 3-4% annually, below Pakistan's potential of 6.5%, due to various domestic and external shocks. These include floods, a security crisis, energy shortages, and global economic issues.
- The economy showed modest signs of recovery in 2011-12, with estimated GDP growth of 3.7% compared to 3% the previous year. Agriculture grew 3.1% and manufacturing 1.8% while services grew 4%.
- However, growth remains below potential and structural issues remain like challenges to sustaining high growth, low inflation, and balanced external payments. Re
- The Indonesian economy has grown rapidly in recent decades but growth has slowed from 6.4% in 2010 to an average of 4.7% in the first half of 2015 due to tight financial conditions, weak external demand from China, and a broad-based slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports.
- Inflation rose to 7.5% in 2015 as cuts to fuel subsidies and import tariffs pushed up prices, while the current account deficit narrowed to 1.8% of GDP as imports fell more than exports.
- The report forecasts that growth will recover to 5.0% in 2016 as infrastructure investment increases, then to 5.5% in 2017 as financial conditions ease, while
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africabizsouthafrica
This document summarizes Pravin Gordhan's presentation to the Business Forum South Africa on August 30, 2013. The presentation discusses the global economic outlook, noting slowing growth in emerging markets and a three-speed global recovery with the Eurozone in recession and growth in the US and emerging markets. It then analyzes growth dynamics in various regions and countries, highlighting challenges in China, other emerging markets, and specifically in South Africa. The presentation concludes by reviewing South Africa's achievements since 1994, including economic and social progress.
The document provides an analysis of recent global and African economic trends from the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for Africa. Key points include:
- Global growth is projected to strengthen to 3% in 2014, led by a recovery in high-income countries. However, risks remain from financial volatility and a slowdown in capital flows.
- Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened to 4.7% in 2013, led by strong domestic demand and investment. Excluding South Africa, growth was 6.1%.
- The outlook for the region remains positive, but is sensitive to risks from lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows. Frontier markets are attracting increasing investment flows
1) Indonesia faced severe economic turmoil during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998, with GDP declining by 13.31% that year. However, GDP growth recovered significantly to over 6% in 2010-2011 after the global financial crisis.
2) Consumption contributes the highest proportion to Indonesia's GDP, followed by exports. Investment and government spending contribute smaller and more variable proportions.
3) While inflation in Indonesia has historically been higher than in peer nations, it has shown a gradual declining trend in recent years as the government reduces fuel and electricity subsidies. Volatile food and administered fuel prices continue to pose challenges.
Indonesia Economy and ASEAN Economic Community by rizal djaafaraBudi Rachmat
1) The Indonesian economy grew 5.02% in 2014, driven by strong domestic demand and resilient household consumption. Exports declined due to weak global demand.
2) Inflation decreased to 6.96% in January 2015 due to falling administered prices and volatile food prices. Core inflation remained under control.
3) Indonesia's balance of payments recorded a surplus of $2.4 billion in Q4 2014 and $15.2 billion for the full year 2014, supported by a capital and financial account surplus that exceeded a current account deficit. Foreign reserves increased to $114.2 billion in January 2015.
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Swedbank analyzed the Swedish and Baltic economies in April 2011. While the global recovery continued in 2010, headwinds were emerging such as higher commodity prices, overheating in emerging markets, and unsustainable sovereign debt in advanced economies. Sweden's economy grew 5.3% in 2010, driven by investments, but household consumption was expected to slow as prices and interest rates rose. Growth in the Baltic countries was also around 4-4.5% in 2011, supported by exports and recovering domestic demand, though taxes were slowing growth in Latvia and inflation posed a challenge for Lithuania. Overall the recovery was gaining momentum but headwinds threatened global growth going forward.
- The Indonesian economy has grown rapidly in recent decades but growth has slowed from 6.4% in 2010 to an average of 4.7% in the first half of 2015 due to tight financial conditions, weak external demand from China, and a broad-based slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports.
- Inflation rose to 7.5% in 2015 as cuts to fuel subsidies and import tariffs pushed up prices, while the current account deficit narrowed to 1.8% of GDP as imports fell more than exports.
- The report forecasts that growth will recover to 5.0% in 2016 as infrastructure investment increases, then to 5.5% in 2017 as financial conditions ease, while
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
Presentation by Minister of Finance Republic of South Africabizsouthafrica
This document summarizes Pravin Gordhan's presentation to the Business Forum South Africa on August 30, 2013. The presentation discusses the global economic outlook, noting slowing growth in emerging markets and a three-speed global recovery with the Eurozone in recession and growth in the US and emerging markets. It then analyzes growth dynamics in various regions and countries, highlighting challenges in China, other emerging markets, and specifically in South Africa. The presentation concludes by reviewing South Africa's achievements since 1994, including economic and social progress.
The document provides an analysis of recent global and African economic trends from the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for Africa. Key points include:
- Global growth is projected to strengthen to 3% in 2014, led by a recovery in high-income countries. However, risks remain from financial volatility and a slowdown in capital flows.
- Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa strengthened to 4.7% in 2013, led by strong domestic demand and investment. Excluding South Africa, growth was 6.1%.
- The outlook for the region remains positive, but is sensitive to risks from lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows. Frontier markets are attracting increasing investment flows
1) Indonesia faced severe economic turmoil during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998, with GDP declining by 13.31% that year. However, GDP growth recovered significantly to over 6% in 2010-2011 after the global financial crisis.
2) Consumption contributes the highest proportion to Indonesia's GDP, followed by exports. Investment and government spending contribute smaller and more variable proportions.
3) While inflation in Indonesia has historically been higher than in peer nations, it has shown a gradual declining trend in recent years as the government reduces fuel and electricity subsidies. Volatile food and administered fuel prices continue to pose challenges.
Indonesia Economy and ASEAN Economic Community by rizal djaafaraBudi Rachmat
1) The Indonesian economy grew 5.02% in 2014, driven by strong domestic demand and resilient household consumption. Exports declined due to weak global demand.
2) Inflation decreased to 6.96% in January 2015 due to falling administered prices and volatile food prices. Core inflation remained under control.
3) Indonesia's balance of payments recorded a surplus of $2.4 billion in Q4 2014 and $15.2 billion for the full year 2014, supported by a capital and financial account surplus that exceeded a current account deficit. Foreign reserves increased to $114.2 billion in January 2015.
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
Swedbank analyzed the Swedish and Baltic economies in April 2011. While the global recovery continued in 2010, headwinds were emerging such as higher commodity prices, overheating in emerging markets, and unsustainable sovereign debt in advanced economies. Sweden's economy grew 5.3% in 2010, driven by investments, but household consumption was expected to slow as prices and interest rates rose. Growth in the Baltic countries was also around 4-4.5% in 2011, supported by exports and recovering domestic demand, though taxes were slowing growth in Latvia and inflation posed a challenge for Lithuania. Overall the recovery was gaining momentum but headwinds threatened global growth going forward.
Industrial growth in Pakistan 2015: An OverviewAyesha Majid
Pakistan is improving as it has maintained the growth momentum and achievements are broad based touching all sectors of the economy. The growth recorded for 2014-15 is 4.24 percent and will further accelerate in coming years as business climate is improving on fast track with better growth oriented policies of the government.
Now situation is improving as the present government has launched comprehensive plan to create investment friendly environment & to attract foreign investors in the country. The investment policy has been designed to provide a comprehensive framework for creating a conducive business environment for the attraction of FDI. Private investment recorded in last year was Rs. 2,513 billion and it expanded to Rs. 2,645 billion for the fiscal year 2014-15.
This increase in private investment is the reflection that private investors are showing confidence on government policies and situation is improving.
- Global economic growth remains subdued in 2013 and is expected to slowly gain momentum in 2014, but will remain below potential.
- Unemployment remains high in many developed countries like the euro area and US.
- Short-term global risks have diminished but new medium-term risks have emerged from unconventional monetary policies.
- Real economies remain sluggish while financial markets have improved, but growth is expected to be constrained by fiscal austerity and structural challenges.
Prior to independence, Indonesia's economy focused on exporting raw materials to the Netherlands. It relied heavily on subsistence agriculture, especially rice production. After independence, economic mismanagement hurt growth initially. Later, under President Suharto, Indonesia prioritized economic development through five-year plans, attracting foreign investment and expanding trade. A financial crisis in 1997 caused economic contraction, but reforms since have supported recovery and ongoing economic shifts from agriculture to industry and manufacturing.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
The document discusses India's strong economic growth in recent years, with GDP growth averaging over 8.5% since 2003 and expected to be around 8.5% in 2007-2008. Inflation has also increased but remains under control at around 5%. Interest rates are expected to rise to control inflation. The strengthening economy has boosted investor confidence but India still faces challenges in sustaining growth, reducing poverty and population growth, and developing infrastructure and education.
Market Macroscope - March 21-202103061104162707729.pdfMiniswarKosana1
The document provides an overview of the equity, debt, and macroeconomic outlook for March 2021. Key points include:
- Global bond yields increased on large US fiscal stimulus but the Fed will likely keep rates low. India's budget focused on growth over tax increases.
- Indian equity markets rallied in February on the budget. Concerns over rising global bond yields caused a sell-off at the end of the month.
- The large size of planned Indian government borrowing poses challenges for managing bond yields. Inflation remains under control but crude oil is a risk.
- The economic recovery is showing green shoots but rates are unlikely to rise given fragility. Volatility in global bond yields will continue to
The document provides a market and economic outlook report for June 2013. It identifies several positive factors for the Indian markets in the coming months, including strong FII inflows due to quantitative easing by Japan and the US. GDP growth is seen to have bottomed out, and inflation is expected to continue declining. The report also notes that rate cuts are likely to continue and commodity prices are declining. Key projects are moving forward and the monsoon is on schedule. Reliance also reported a significant gas find.
Despite a slowing global recovery, growth is projected to be 3.3% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Advanced economies are expected to see faster growth led by the US, while the eurozone recovery remains weak. Emerging markets face more divergence, with steady growth in Asia but slower growth in Latin America, Russia, and the Middle East. Short-term risks include worsening geopolitical tensions and reversals in financial markets.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries. It notes that while these economies have seen stronger growth than other advanced economies recently, global headwinds now pose policy challenges. Swedbank revises down its global GDP growth forecast for 2011-2013 to a range just below 4% due to slowing growth in the US and Eurozone and increased financial instability. It outlines three scenarios - a main 60% probability scenario of continued slow growth, and lower probability worse and better scenarios.
The document is a 2014 economic survey of India by the OECD that makes several recommendations:
1. India's economy is recovering but more reforms are needed to sustain growth above 8%, including reducing subsidies, increasing infrastructure investment, and tax reform.
2. Structural barriers have hampered growth and job creation, especially in manufacturing, and parts of the banking system are vulnerable.
3. Increasing opportunities for women could boost growth by over 2% by raising equity and the number of quality jobs.
4. Public health care is poor for most Indians and increased spending is recommended.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
The Economic growth rate of Indian Economy can be accelerated from the present levels. It requires the co-operation from all segments of the Indian society.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an analysis of the state of the Bangladesh economy in Fiscal Year 2015. Some key points:
- Economic growth fell short of ambitious targets in FY13 and FY14. Private investment remained sluggish.
- In FY15, GDP growth is projected to be 6.5%, below the target of 8%. Revenue collection and private investment face challenges.
- Inflation stabilized at a lower level but food inflation remains high. The balance of payments showed some pressure.
- Private investment in major sectors like manufacturing and services has not picked up as expected in the post-election year. Import of machinery increased but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain.
The presentation highlights the status of Bangladesh economy, its challenges and prospects in future. Current scenario of Bangladesh economy along with the investment perspective of the country has been highlighted in a well manner.
Group members for the project include Rabbiya Waheed, Rubab Abbasi, and Hassan. The document defines marketing as communicating the value of a product or service to customers to generate value in return. Advertising is defined as promoting products and services to drive sales. Unethical marketing practices are considered morally unacceptable and can include misleading ads, marketing harmful products, using women or children in marketing, excessive marketing, and pushy sales tactics. Specific examples of unethical practices discussed include exaggeration, unverified claims, using women or children to promote products, comparative ads between brands, and surrogate advertising for banned substances like cigarettes.
The banking sector in Pakistan has undergone significant changes since independence in 1947. It initially suffered from a lack of resources and trained professionals. The State Bank of Pakistan was established in 1948 as the central bank. In the 1970s, all banks were nationalized but their performance deteriorated. Reforms in the early 1990s privatized many banks. Today, Pakistan's banking sector plays a key role in the economy. It includes commercial, specialized, microfinance and Islamic banks. The sector has expanded services and introduced new payment methods in recent years. Reforms have created an efficient, competitive system dominated by private banks rather than state-owned banks.
Industrial growth in Pakistan 2015: An OverviewAyesha Majid
Pakistan is improving as it has maintained the growth momentum and achievements are broad based touching all sectors of the economy. The growth recorded for 2014-15 is 4.24 percent and will further accelerate in coming years as business climate is improving on fast track with better growth oriented policies of the government.
Now situation is improving as the present government has launched comprehensive plan to create investment friendly environment & to attract foreign investors in the country. The investment policy has been designed to provide a comprehensive framework for creating a conducive business environment for the attraction of FDI. Private investment recorded in last year was Rs. 2,513 billion and it expanded to Rs. 2,645 billion for the fiscal year 2014-15.
This increase in private investment is the reflection that private investors are showing confidence on government policies and situation is improving.
- Global economic growth remains subdued in 2013 and is expected to slowly gain momentum in 2014, but will remain below potential.
- Unemployment remains high in many developed countries like the euro area and US.
- Short-term global risks have diminished but new medium-term risks have emerged from unconventional monetary policies.
- Real economies remain sluggish while financial markets have improved, but growth is expected to be constrained by fiscal austerity and structural challenges.
Prior to independence, Indonesia's economy focused on exporting raw materials to the Netherlands. It relied heavily on subsistence agriculture, especially rice production. After independence, economic mismanagement hurt growth initially. Later, under President Suharto, Indonesia prioritized economic development through five-year plans, attracting foreign investment and expanding trade. A financial crisis in 1997 caused economic contraction, but reforms since have supported recovery and ongoing economic shifts from agriculture to industry and manufacturing.
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
Assignment on Current Economic ConditionsAnurag Verma
This document is an assignment submitted by students for their MBA program. It contains summaries of key economic concepts related to growth and inflation in India. The assignment discusses issues like stagflation, nominal vs real GDP, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), and how inflation is measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Wholesale Price Index (WPI). The students analyze factors influencing India's current economic environment of high inflation and low growth.
The document discusses India's strong economic growth in recent years, with GDP growth averaging over 8.5% since 2003 and expected to be around 8.5% in 2007-2008. Inflation has also increased but remains under control at around 5%. Interest rates are expected to rise to control inflation. The strengthening economy has boosted investor confidence but India still faces challenges in sustaining growth, reducing poverty and population growth, and developing infrastructure and education.
Market Macroscope - March 21-202103061104162707729.pdfMiniswarKosana1
The document provides an overview of the equity, debt, and macroeconomic outlook for March 2021. Key points include:
- Global bond yields increased on large US fiscal stimulus but the Fed will likely keep rates low. India's budget focused on growth over tax increases.
- Indian equity markets rallied in February on the budget. Concerns over rising global bond yields caused a sell-off at the end of the month.
- The large size of planned Indian government borrowing poses challenges for managing bond yields. Inflation remains under control but crude oil is a risk.
- The economic recovery is showing green shoots but rates are unlikely to rise given fragility. Volatility in global bond yields will continue to
The document provides a market and economic outlook report for June 2013. It identifies several positive factors for the Indian markets in the coming months, including strong FII inflows due to quantitative easing by Japan and the US. GDP growth is seen to have bottomed out, and inflation is expected to continue declining. The report also notes that rate cuts are likely to continue and commodity prices are declining. Key projects are moving forward and the monsoon is on schedule. Reliance also reported a significant gas find.
Despite a slowing global recovery, growth is projected to be 3.3% in 2014 and 3.8% in 2015. Advanced economies are expected to see faster growth led by the US, while the eurozone recovery remains weak. Emerging markets face more divergence, with steady growth in Asia but slower growth in Latin America, Russia, and the Middle East. Short-term risks include worsening geopolitical tensions and reversals in financial markets.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document summarizes Swedbank's economic outlook for Sweden and the Baltic countries. It notes that while these economies have seen stronger growth than other advanced economies recently, global headwinds now pose policy challenges. Swedbank revises down its global GDP growth forecast for 2011-2013 to a range just below 4% due to slowing growth in the US and Eurozone and increased financial instability. It outlines three scenarios - a main 60% probability scenario of continued slow growth, and lower probability worse and better scenarios.
The document is a 2014 economic survey of India by the OECD that makes several recommendations:
1. India's economy is recovering but more reforms are needed to sustain growth above 8%, including reducing subsidies, increasing infrastructure investment, and tax reform.
2. Structural barriers have hampered growth and job creation, especially in manufacturing, and parts of the banking system are vulnerable.
3. Increasing opportunities for women could boost growth by over 2% by raising equity and the number of quality jobs.
4. Public health care is poor for most Indians and increased spending is recommended.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
The Economic growth rate of Indian Economy can be accelerated from the present levels. It requires the co-operation from all segments of the Indian society.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an analysis of the state of the Bangladesh economy in Fiscal Year 2015. Some key points:
- Economic growth fell short of ambitious targets in FY13 and FY14. Private investment remained sluggish.
- In FY15, GDP growth is projected to be 6.5%, below the target of 8%. Revenue collection and private investment face challenges.
- Inflation stabilized at a lower level but food inflation remains high. The balance of payments showed some pressure.
- Private investment in major sectors like manufacturing and services has not picked up as expected in the post-election year. Import of machinery increased but the sustainability of this trend is uncertain.
The presentation highlights the status of Bangladesh economy, its challenges and prospects in future. Current scenario of Bangladesh economy along with the investment perspective of the country has been highlighted in a well manner.
Group members for the project include Rabbiya Waheed, Rubab Abbasi, and Hassan. The document defines marketing as communicating the value of a product or service to customers to generate value in return. Advertising is defined as promoting products and services to drive sales. Unethical marketing practices are considered morally unacceptable and can include misleading ads, marketing harmful products, using women or children in marketing, excessive marketing, and pushy sales tactics. Specific examples of unethical practices discussed include exaggeration, unverified claims, using women or children to promote products, comparative ads between brands, and surrogate advertising for banned substances like cigarettes.
The banking sector in Pakistan has undergone significant changes since independence in 1947. It initially suffered from a lack of resources and trained professionals. The State Bank of Pakistan was established in 1948 as the central bank. In the 1970s, all banks were nationalized but their performance deteriorated. Reforms in the early 1990s privatized many banks. Today, Pakistan's banking sector plays a key role in the economy. It includes commercial, specialized, microfinance and Islamic banks. The sector has expanded services and introduced new payment methods in recent years. Reforms have created an efficient, competitive system dominated by private banks rather than state-owned banks.
Group B consists of 7 members: Ritu Joshi, Sarita Maharjan, Ankur Shrestha, Krishna Chalise, Dipika Shrestha, Pawan Kawan, and Sona Shrestha. The document provides an overview of derivatives markets, including definitions of different types of derivatives (e.g. futures, options, swaps, forwards) and parties involved (e.g. clients/investors, brokers, clearing houses). It also discusses the trading process, regulations, and current state of derivative markets in Nepal.
Effect of various levels of moringa leaf meal on the egg quality of isa brown...Alexander Decker
This study investigated the effects of various levels of Moringa oleifera leaf meal on egg production and quality in Isa Brown layers. One hundred and twenty layers were fed diets containing 0%, 2.5%, 5%, or 7.5% Moringa leaf meal. Birds receiving the 2.5% diet had significantly higher egg production, egg weight, yolk weight, and albumen weight compared to the other treatment groups. Higher inclusion levels of 5% and 7.5% resulted in poorer productivity and egg quality. The results indicate that inclusion of Moringa oleifera leaf meal at lower levels can improve egg production and quality in layers.
Catherine Morris is seeking a position as a Vocational Projects Officer. She has over 15 years of experience in education roles, including as a special education teacher aide and transitional support officer. Morris has also owned and managed two small businesses. She holds a Bachelor's degree in Learning Management and various certificates in areas such as ICT and supporting students with disabilities. Morris has strong computer skills and experience using software like MYOB, Microsoft Office, and Quickbooks. She provides two education professionals as references who can speak to her work.
This document discusses surveys, frequency tables, and graphs. Surveys are used to collect information from participants. Frequency tables tally the collected information into categories. Graphs then display the tallied information from the frequency table in a visual format to analyze the results.
This is a presentation of my 2010 and 2011 completed courses that explains how the 8 graduate attributes are embedded in these courses by presenting the course descriptions.
The document provides examples of compound words formed by combining two words. Some examples given are ladybug, goldfish, basketball, raincoat, doghouse, cupcake, sunshine, lunchbox, playground, sidewalk, treehouse, sailboat, bedroom, snowman, and cowgirl. The document explains that a compound word is formed by putting two words together to create a new word.
A sick lion summoned animals to his cave to pay their respects. A goat, sheep, and duck entered but did not exit. When the lion noticed the fox had not entered, the fox explained that while others went in, none came out. Fearing the lion may eat the visitors, the fox ran away. The moral is to not leap before you look and learn from others' experiences.
How to Build a Dynamic Social Media PlanPost Planner
Stop guessing and wasting your time on networks and strategies that don’t work!
Join Rebekah Radice and Katie Lance to learn how to optimize your social networks, the best kept secrets for hot content, top time management tools, and much more!
Watch the replay here: bit.ly/socialmedia-plan
http://inarocket.com
Learn BEM fundamentals as fast as possible. What is BEM (Block, element, modifier), BEM syntax, how it works with a real example, etc.
20 Ideas for your Website Homepage ContentBarry Feldman
Perplexed about what to put on your website home? Every company deals with this tough challenge. The 20 ideas in this presentation should give you a strong starting point.
The document discusses how personalization and dynamic content are becoming increasingly important on websites. It notes that 52% of marketers see content personalization as critical and 75% of consumers like it when brands personalize their content. However, personalization can create issues for search engine optimization as dynamic URLs and content are more difficult for search engines to index than static pages. The document provides tips for SEOs to help address these personalization and SEO challenges, such as using static URLs when possible and submitting accurate sitemaps.
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The document provides an overview of the key topics covered in the Indian Economic Survey of 2011-12, including:
1) What is an economic survey and its purpose of reviewing the previous year's economic performance and prospects.
2) The status of the Indian economy in 2011-12, with growth estimated at 6.9% compared to 8.4% in the previous two years, largely due to weakening industrial growth.
3) Highlights and conclusions from the survey covering fiscal developments, prices and monetary policy, trade, agriculture, industry, infrastructure and other sectors.
The Indian economy has experienced two successive years of sub-5% GDP growth for the first time in 25 years, due to both domestic structural issues and external factors. Inflation remains above comfort levels, though it has declined. The external sector and fiscal deficit have improved, with the current account deficit falling to 1.7% of GDP and the fiscal deficit declining. However, sustained growth will depend on addressing domestic structural constraints such as low manufacturing growth, infrastructure bottlenecks, and land and labor market rigidities.
India's balance of payments was under stress in 2011-12 as the trade and current account deficits widened. Exports grew at a slower rate while imports grew significantly, leading to a large trade deficit. The current account deficit also increased substantially. While capital inflows increased, they did not fully finance the current account deficit, resulting in a drawdown of foreign exchange reserves. The growing integration of India's economy with the global economy has helped growth but also increased vulnerability to external shocks. Focusing on domestic macroeconomic rebalancing can help reduce this vulnerability.
The passage discusses India's declining economic growth rate of 5.3%, the lowest in seven years, and the implications this has. It notes that the near double-digit growth previously promised to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty but that goal is now in jeopardy. The economic miracle now feels like a mirage with the currency slump, decline in private investment, and falling GDP. Lower growth carries significant social costs as jobs and opportunities for the large youth population are reduced.
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
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The document provides an economic overview and summary of Pakistan's budget for 2012-13. Some key points:
- GDP growth was estimated at 3.7% for FY2012 compared to 3% the previous year, driven by improved agriculture and manufacturing growth.
- Inflation declined to 10.8% during July-April 2012 from higher rates in previous years.
- The budget proposed several amendments to income tax, sales tax, and federal excise duty, including increasing basic tax exemptions and reducing certain tax rates.
- Significant income tax amendments included taxing capital gains on property sold within two years, taxing bank dividend income from funds at higher rates, and introducing optional group taxation relief.
This document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's 2012-13 Monetary Policy Statement. It discusses the global and domestic macroeconomic environment, providing outlooks for growth, inflation, and monetary aggregates in India. Key points include: moderating global growth concerns, high inflation and slowing growth in India, projections for 7.3% GDP growth and lower inflation in 2012-13, and measures to address high fiscal and current account deficits. The statement covers monetary policy stances and outlines regulatory and developmental policies.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
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- The current account surplus rose to 2.1% of GDP in 2014 as lower commodity prices reduced imports more than weak exports reduced the surplus.
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The document provides an overview of Pakistan's economy and macroeconomic indicators from 2007-2011. It discusses that Pakistan underwent economic shocks from 2008-2009 due to external imbalances, mounting internal issues, high inflation, and portfolio de-leveraging by offshore investors as a result of the global financial crisis. However, IMF assistance beginning in 2009 triggered economic reforms and increased foreign exchange reserves. Real GDP growth was 4.1% in 2010, supported by industry and services. Major structural reforms have been initiated as required by the IMF. Headline inflation declined from 20.8% in 2009 to 11.7% in 2010, while the current account deficit also shrank. However, recent floods have negatively impacted the economy and inflation
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The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged to address inflation risks and the current account deficit given the rupee's sharp depreciation from reversal of foreign institutional investment debt inflows on expectations of reduced US stimulus.
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01 growth andstabilization
1. Chapter 1
Growth and Stabilization
Introduction
The resilience of the economy of Pakistan has been
tested several times by one crisis after another. The
economy has witnessed numerous domestic and
external shocks from 2007 onwards. The sharp rise
in international oil and food prices, the internal
security hazards brought on by the campaign
against extremism and the repeated natural
disasters in the form of successive floods have
buffeted the macroeconomic strategy with shock
after shock. Domestically, two floods, the difficult
security situation and the energy crisis have
combined to drastically impact economic growth.
The campaign against extremism with its
associated destruction of physical infrastructure,
the displacement of thousands of people from the
affected areas and the associated rise in
expenditure to support the moved people has all
taken their toll. The growth in our export markets
has slowed down compared to last year. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been stuck at
a level, which is half of the level of Pakistan’s
long-term trend potential of about 6.5 percent per
annum and is lower than what would be required
for sustained increases in employment and income
and a reduction in poverty.
Amidst the critical challenges of the floods and
heavy rains of 2010 and 2011, skyrocketing oil
prices and global contraction, the government’s
strategy continued to focus on regaining
macroeconomic stability. There have been some
successes. Pakistan has been able to withstand the
pressures and improve its performance in some key
areas such as the check on inflation, the increase in
exports and revenue generation and maintenance of
comfortable foreign exchange reserve levels. The
focus on reforms and austerity through the control
of public expenditures despite the difficulties has
continued.
The economy is now showing signs of modest
recovery. The commodity producing sectors and
especially the agriculture sector are doing better.
Some improvement is also witnessed in the Large
Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector. The Service
sector also gained from healthy trade activities and
the improvements in the commodity producing
sectors. The smooth functioning of the supply
chains is playing a key role in improving the
economic situation and ensuring the availability of
essential items. Pakistan has the potential to grow
at 6 to 7 percent in the next couple of years.
The GDP growth for 2011-12 was projected at 4.2
percent on the back of 3.4 percent growth in
Agriculture, 2 percent growth in LSM and 5
percent in Services sectors. However, the torrential
rains in Sindh province during August 2011
compelled the government to revise its GDP
growth target to 3.6 percent from 4.2 percent on
the basis of 2.5 percent growth in Agriculture, 1.5
percent in LSM, and 4.4 percent growth in services
sector.
The revised growth targets have been met and
marginally exceeded. The economy has shown
resilience. GDP growth for 2011-12 has been
estimated 3.7 percent based on nine month data as
compared to 3.0 percent (revised) in the previous
fiscal year 2011. The Agriculture sector recorded a
growth of 3.13 percent against a target of 3.4
percent and previous year’s growth rate of 2.38
percent. The Large Scale Manufacturing sector
grew by 1.78 percent as compared to the target of
2.0 percent and against the growth of 1.15 percent
1
2. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
in the last year. Although the Services sector
recorded steady growth of 4.02 percent as
compared to 4.45 percent in 2010-11, this was
lower than the target of 5.0 percent set for the
outgoing year. Figure-1.1 presents an overview of
GDP growth over the previous years.
Fig-1.1 GDP Growth (%)
9.0
7.5
6.8
5.8
2.0
3.0
3.7
Some of Pakistan’s economic problems are
structural in nature. The objectives of sustaining
high growth, low inflation, and external payment
viability can not be achieved without removing
certain structural barriers. To this end the major
structural reforms of the government have included
tax legislation, trade reforms, further privatization
of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), financial
sector reforms, human resource development and
social protection. The EU approval of duty waiver
on textile items is being pursued aggressively,
which would help in improving the exports and
providing support to the business environment. In
recent times, Pakistan has also undergone political
and constitutional changes. Civil societies and
other organizations are now playing a more active
and independent role and this coupled with
government reforms are helping economic growth.
Global Developments
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
warned that the euro zone debt crisis is escalating
2011-12
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
1.7
The 3.7 percent growth based on the nine months
data 2011-12, up from 1.7 percent in 2008-09 and
3.0 percent last year, indicates the potential growth
trajectory. The country has enormous potential to
grow at much higher rates which is demonstrated
by the achievement of the 3.7 percent growth this
year despite the numerous internal and external
shocks that the economy has been forced to
withstand.
2
3.1
2010-11
3.7
3.1
2009-10
4.7
2000-01
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
and dragging down the entire world economy. In
this scenario China has remained a bright spot. Its
growth rate, although down to a forecast of 8.2
percent for this year compared to 9.2 percent last
year, has remained relatively high. If China can
maintain its growth, it’s good for the world,
providing support for commodities markets and
growth in other countries.
The IMF maintained its forecast of 2.1 percent
growth for the US in the year 2012 and 2.4 percent
for the year 2013. For Japan the growth rate
projected for 2012 is 2.0 percent and for 2013 it is
1.7 percent. Overall, economic activity in
advanced economies is likely to expand by 1.7
percent on average in 2012 and 2013. Growth in
emerging economies is projected at 5.7 percent in
2012. The IMF expects growth in oil exporting
countries in the Middle East and North Africa to
slow to 3.9 percent in 2012, from 4.9 percent in
2011. Net oil importers in the Middle East and
North Africa region are expected to record 2.6
percent growth in 2012, after sluggish growth of
1.4 percent in 2011. GDP growth across the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is expected
to be moderate at a rate of 4 percent in 2012.
Unfortunately, Europe is now caught in a vicious
cycle of high debt and low growth. Highly
burdened by debt, most of the economies in the
region may not attain respectable levels of growth
to improve their fiscal position. This will imply
3. Growth and Stabilization
potential debt servicing difficulties and limit their
abilities to unshackle their growth potential.
Almost 17 percent of total exports of Pakistan are
to the Euro zone as are a reasonable portion of its
total import from this region. Problems in this area
can impact on Pakistan’s trade and hence its
overall growth.
Asia on the other hand, continues to move ahead,
with China and India leading the growth. There is
some hope that perhaps Asia has created some
distance from the OECD, and has therefore, not
been dragged down so far. However, if the OECD
continues its downward slide, the export-led Asian
giants could see their growth prospects diminish.
Table-1.1: Comparative Real GDP Growth Rates (%)
Region/Country
2009
2010
2011
World GDP
-0.5
5.3
3.9
Euro Area
-4.1
1.9
1.4
United States
-2.6
3.0
1.7
Japan
-6.3
4.4
-0.7
Germany
-4.7
3.6
3.1
Canada
-2.5
3.2
2.5
Developing Countries
2.7
7.5
6.2
China
9.2
10.4
9.2
Hong Kong SAR
-2.7
6.8
5.4
Korea
0.2
6.1
4.5
Singapore
0.6
2.8
3.3
Vietnam
5.3
6.8
5.9
ASEAN
Indonesia
4.6
6.2
6.5
Malaysia
-1.6
7.2
5.1
Thailand
-2.3
7.8
0.1
Philippines
1.1
7.6
3.7
South Asia
India
6.6
10.6
7.2
Bangladesh
5.9
6.4
6.1
Sri Lanka
3.5
8.0
8.2
Pakistan
1.7
3.1
3.0
Middle East
Saudi Arabia
0.1
4.6
6.8
Kuwait
-5.2
3.4
8.2
Iran
3.9
5.9
2.0
Egypt
4.7
5.1
1.8
Africa
Algeria
2.4
3.3
2.5
Morocco
4.9
3.7
4.3
Tunisia
3.1
3.1
-0.8
Nigeria
7.0
8.0
7.2
Kenya
2.6
5.6
5.0
South Africa
-1.5
2.9
3.1
Source: World Economic Outlook (IMF), April 2012.
P: Projected.
Pakistan’s economy is very closely linked to the
rest of the world due to its high external sector
exposure. Several countries of the euro zone are
important trading partners of Pakistan. As such,
any untoward development in these countries could
2012
2013 (P)
3.5
-0.3
2.1
2.0
0.6
2.1
5.7
8.2
2.6
3.5
2.7
5.6
4.1
0.9
2.4
1.7
1.5
2.2
6.0
8.8
4.2
4.0
3.9
6.3
6.1
4.4
5.5
4.2
6.6
4.7
7.5
4.7
6.9
5.9
7.5
3.7
7.3
6.4
7.0
4.3
6.0
6.6
0.4
1.5
4.1
1.8
1.3
3.3
3.1
3.7
2.2
7.1
5.2
2.7
3.4
4.3
3.5
6.6
5.7
3.4
have a substantial negative impact on the economy
of Pakistan. A contraction or stagnation in
economic activity in the global economy, can
potentially affect the level of our exports, Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) and home remittances
adversely. Similarly further increase in oil prices
3
4. Pakistan E
Economic Sur
rvey 2011-12
2
te
oing econom
mic
can creat hurdles in the ongo
activities of the countr The increa in oil pric
ry.
ase
ces
ady
economic acti
ivities
is alrea seriously hampering e
(Box-1).
Box-1
E
ivities
Rise in Oil Prices and Economic Acti
Fig 1.2: Impact of Oil Prices o LSM
g
on
Sector
S
120.0
0
20.0
00
LSM Growth rate Y
YOY
Oil Prices
100.0
0
15.0
00
Jan-12
Growth (%)
Mar-12
Jan-11
-10.00
July-11
0.0
0
July-10
-5.00
Jan-10
0.00
0
Jan-09
Jan 09
40.0
0
July-09
5.00
0
Jan-08
60.0
0
July-08
10.0
00
July-07
80.0
0
20.0
0
Rs. Per Liter
Rising oil prices affect an economy t
through direct and
t
indirect ch
hannels. The direct channel works through the
d
h
supply sid whereas the indirect chan
de
e
nnel works thr
rough
the demand side. The va
ariables ultimat
tely affected b oil
by
price hikes include con
nsumption, inv
vestment, exch
hange
rate, balan of paymen and unemp
nce
nts,
ployment. The first
nine month of the fiscal year 2011-12 depict that oi bill
hs
l
2
il
has reache $11.14 billio indicating a rise of 38 percent
ed
on
over $8.01 billion for the same pe
eriod of last year.
Soaring oi prices are ca
il
ausing massive trade imbalan
e
nces;
the trade d
deficit has reach to $16.1 bi
hed
illion which is $4.8
billion hig
gher than the corresponding period of prev
c
vious
period.
In the first stage, rising oil prices mak input expen
t
ke
nsive
which effe producers’ price and lowe the real profi of
ect
p
er
fits
firms and i
investment for future projects Decomposin the investme in different sectors reveal further that t fall
s.
ng
ent
t
ls
the
in investm
ment was more in the manufa
acturing sector compared to construction, transportation and communi
r
ication
sectors. Th Large Scale Manufacturin (LSM) grow was more a
hus
e
ng
wth
adversely impa
acted as shown in the Fig-1.2.
n
The increa
asing oil pric also cripp
ces
pled our econ
nomic
growth du to the backw
ue
ward and forw
ward linkages with
agriculture and the servi
e
ices sector. Th oil price sh
hus
hocks
hampered capacity utiliza
ation and lowe
ered the availab
bility
of inputs th adding to the capacity u
hus
utilization issue In
es.
response, firms attemp to minim
pt
mize the cost of
production through the minimization o the variable cost
n
m
of
e
resulting in large layoffs.
n
.
Another im
mportant aspec is the energy mix for electr
ct
y
ricity
generation-in Pakistan which is creat
w
ting huge fina
ancial
pressures a massive electricity shut
and
e
tdowns. Pakist is
tan
generating almost 40 per
rcent of electri
icity (Fig-1.3) from
thermal re
esources (impo
orted input), w
which is the least
cost-effective option due to the ever inc
creasing furnac oil
ce
prices.
Fi
ig-1.3: Electric Generatio
city
on
Gas 24%
Others 3%
Oil 4
40%
Hydel
H
33
3 %
Heavy reli
iance on impor
rted oil has res
sulted in circu debt and electricity short
ular
tages, which is eroding our export
s
competitiv
veness and crea
ating fiscal im
mbalances. So just the oil pric hike by itse has been a major challen for
ce
elf
nge
Pakistan’s economic grow
wth.
Analysis of Growth
G
Sectoral A
It is esse
ential to loo into the p
ok
performance of
various c
components of Gross Na
ational Produ
uct
(GNP) to understand what is happe
w
ening to over
rall
growth. The growth performance of vario
h
ous
componen of GDP over the las five years is
nts
st
4
ted
-1.2. These d
data highlight the
ts
present in Tablerelative importance of various sectors and sube
e
d
sectors and the inter relationship between the
s
rp
em.
5. Growth and Stabilization
Table 1.2: Growth Performance of Components of Gross National Product
(% Growth at Constant Factor Costs of 1999-2000)
Sectors/Sub-Sectors
2007-08
Commodity Producing Sector
1. Agriculture
-Major Crops
-Minor Crops
-Livestock
-Forestry
-Fishing
2. Mining & Quarrying
3. Manufacturing
-Large Scale
-Small Scale
-Slaughtering
4. Construction
5. Electricity & Gas Distribution
Services Sector
6.Transport,Storage and Communication
7. Wholesale & Retail Trade
8. Finance & Insurance
9. Ownership of Dwellings
10. Public Administration & Defence
11. Social, Community & Public Services
12. GDP (Constant Factor Cost)
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
P : Provisional, R : Revised, - : Included in Small Scale
1.3
1.0
-6.4
10.9
4.2
9.2
-13.0
4.4
4.8
4.0
7.5
-5.5
-23.6
6.0
3.8
5.3
11.1
3.5
1.2
9.8
3.7
2008-09
2009-10
1.8
4.0
7.8
-1.2
3.1
2.3
-3.0
-0.5
-3.6
-8.1
7.5
-11.2
59.0
1.7
3.6
-1.4
-7.6
3.5
3.6
8.9
1.7
3.56
0.62
-2.28
-7.72
4.28
2.20
1.47
2.23
5.46
4.79
7.51
4.33
16.34
6.16
2.63
1.89
4.49
-12.16
3.51
2.52
7.83
3.07
2010-11 R
2011-12 P
1.47
2.38
-0.23
2.68
3.97
-0.40
1.94
-1.28
3.06
1.15
7.51
4.38
-7.09
-7.25
4.45
0.87
3.53
-1.41
1.79
14.17
6.90
3.04
3.28
3.13
3.18
-1.26
4.04
0.95
1.78
4.38
3.56
1.78
7.51
4.46
6.46
-1.62
4.02
1.25
3.58
6.53
3.51
2.61
6.77
3.67
Commodity Producing Sector
Agriculture Sector
The commodity producing sector (CPS) comprises
of agriculture and industry. It is the most important
sector of the economy, with relatively stronger
forward and backward linkages for economic
development and prosperity of the country. It
accounted for 46.5 percent of GDP during the
outgoing fiscal year. This is a decline from 49.1
percent of GDP in 2001-02, indicating that the
share of the non-commodity producing sector has
increased. The commodity producing sector has
performed much better in outgoing fiscal year
compared to last year; its growth rate this year was
3.28 percent against only 1.47 percent in last year.
The recovery in both agriculture and industrial
sector, though moderate, has helped to achieve this
level. However, the growth of the commodity
producing sector remained far below its potential
due to largely unforeseen climatic factors.
Agriculture is a key sector of the economy. It
provides food items and raw materials for
industrial units and accounts for 21 percent of
GDP, 45 percent of employment and 60 percent of
exports. In the inevitable process of structural
transformation its share shrank to 21.1 percent in
fiscal year 2011-12 compared to 24.1 percent ten
years earlier in 2001-02. Despite its declining
share, it is the single largest sector of Pakistan’s
economy. Moreover, an overwhelming majority of
the population depends directly or indirectly on
income generated by this sector. The agriculture
sector has strong backward and forward linkages.
As a result its growth has a larger impact on the
overall economic performance. The performance
of the agriculture sector remained weak due to
recent catastrophic floods.
However, the government’s supportive polices in
this sector resulted in a growth of 3.13 percent
5
6. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
against the growth of 2.38 percent last year and
0.62 percent in fiscal year 2009-10. The improved
performance is mainly attributed to a sharp pick-up
in the production of rice; cotton, and sugarcane.
Livestock also registered a significant growth. The
agriculture sector consists of various sub-sectors
which include crops, livestock, fisheries and
forestry. The crop sub-sector is further divided into
major crops, namely, wheat, cotton, rice,
sugarcane, maize and gram and minor crops
namely, pulses, potatoes, onions, chilies and garlic
etc.
buffalos, sheep, goat, camel, horses, asses, mules
and poultry and their products. The demand for
livestock has grown at a phenomenal pace. The
increase in prices has provided incentive for
greater production and spurred growth. The
importance of this sector may be recognized by the
fact that the majority of people living in rural areas
depend directly or indirectly on the livestock and
dairy sector. This sub-sector is highly labour
intensive. It has also emerged as a major source of
income for the small farmers as well as the
landless rural poor.
Major Crops: Major crops account for 31.87 of
agricultural value added and registered an
accelerating growth of 3.18 percent compared to a
negative growth of 0.23 percent last year and -2.28
percent in fiscal year 2009-10. The major crops
including cotton, sugarcane and rice witnessed
growth in production of 18.6 percent, 4.9 percent
and 27.7 percent respectively. However, wheat
registered a negative growth of -6.7 percent. The
main reason for the negative growth of wheat is the
2.6 percent decline in area under cultivation. In
lower Sindh, in particular, sowing was delayed
mainly because of late receding rain water which
resulted in a decline in both the acreage as well as
the yields. Moreover, in Punjab also the extended
fog season delayed the planting of seed beyond the
optimal period. The other major crops bajra, jowar,
maize, sesamim, gram, barley, rapeseed and
mustard and tobacco showed mixed trends but
their share in the overall sector is small.
Livestock has witnessed a marginally higher
growth of 4.04 percent against the growth of 3.97
percent last year. The production of milk, poultry
products and other livestock items has increased at
the rate of 3.3 percent, 7.1 percent and 2.24 percent
respectively.
Minor Crops: Minor crops contributed 10.11
percent to value addition in overall agriculture.
Production in this sub-sector declined by -1.26
percent. This negative growth is far below the 2.68
percent positive growth last year. The main reason
for this negative growth of minor crops is the
heavy flood in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.
The growth of pulses is estimated at -3.50 percent,
vegetables -10.0 percent, chilies -78.4 percent,
onion -15.4 percent and oil seeds -26.9 percent.
Livestock: Global integration, rising income and
living standards as well as changing dietary
patterns across regions have brought a paradigm
structural shift. This shift is visible in Pakistan
also. The share of livestock in agriculture has
increased to 55 percent. Livestock includes cattle,
6
Fisheries: The fisheries sector witnessed a growth
of 1.78 percent against the growth of 1.94 percent
last year. Components of fisheries such as marine
fishing and in-land fishing, contributed to an
overall increase in value addition in the fisheries
sub-sector. The gross value addition of marine fish
increased by 1.35 percent and that of inland fish by
1.96 percent.
Forestry: The growth of the forestry sub-sector is
recorded at 0.95 percent as compared to the
contraction of -0.40 percent last year. Forests are a
key component of our environment and
degradation of forests can pose severe socioeconomic challenges for the coming generations.
The main components of forestry, timber and fire
wood, grew at 0.90 percent and 0.46 percent
respectively.
Manufacturing Sector: The manufacturing sector
contributes much to the progress of our economy.
The manufacturing sector has remained under
stress for the last several years, due to energy
shortages, poor law and order situation. The heavy
floods also depressed the supply chain and affected
market demand. The share of the manufacturing
sector in GDP was 17.7 percent in 2001-02. This
has increased in 2011-12 to 18.6 percent of GDP.
The manufacturing sector has been hard hit by
international and domestic factors, which caused
the slowing down of its output. The growth of the
7. Growth and Stabilization
manufacturing sector was 3.56 percent compared
to the growth of 3.06 percent last year.
Manufacturing has three main sub-components;
namely the Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM),
Small Scale Manufacturing and Slaughtering.
Small scale manufacturing maintained its growth
of last year at 7.51 percent and slaughtering growth
is estimated at 4.46 percent against 4.38 percent
last year. Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) has
also witnessed a slight improvement. It has shown
a growth of 1.78 percent against the growth of 1.15
percent last year. The major LSM industries which
registered notable growth include; refrigerators
7.56 percent, sugar 27.09 percent, beverages 10.60
percent, liquid/syrup 15.93 percent, injection 6.53
percent, soaps and detergents 8.15 percent, buses
25.0 percent, electric bulbs 15.02 percent, electric
transformers 27.72 percent etc. On the whole 38
major industries group recorded positive growth.
The industries which reported negative growth
include; cooking oil -1.61 percent, motor tyres 25.73 percent, T.V. sets -22.19 percent and
deepfreezers -49.47 percent etc.
Construction Sector: The construction sector has
shown 6.46 percent growth as compared to
negative growth of -7.09 percent in last year. The
increase in growth is due to rapid execution of
work on the rehabilitation of the flood affected
areas, increased investment in small scale
construction and rapid implementation of PSDP
schemes which are near completion.
Mining and Quarrying: Extraction of minerals
and ores through efficient mining and quarrying
provides convenient and economical access to raw
materials and a competitive edge to the country.
The mining and quarrying sector recorded positive
growth of 4.38 percent during the year 2011-12
against the negative growth of -1.28 percent last
year. The contribution of this sector in GDP has
expanded remarkably and now accounts for 9.45
percent of the industrial value addition. The output
of chromite, bauxite, gypsum, chalk and fluoride
increased by 591.54 percent, 82.15 percent, 24.43
percent, 82.18 percent and 111.28 percent
respectively. This growth was also made possible
in some part due to the increase in natural gas
production. The extraction of bentonite, however,
registered substantial decline of -47.82 percent.
Much of the country’s mining reserves exist in
remote areas. Infrastructure improvements are
necessary to sustain and achieve higher growth
rates in future. Improvement in the security
situation in the country would also lead to greater
production.
Services Sector:
The importance of the services sector has been
recognized all over the world. This sector has
emerged as the main driver of economic growth.
The services sector also plays a vital role in
sustaining economic activities in Pakistan. The
economy has gone through a major transformation
in its economic structure. The share of the services
sector has increased to 53.5 percent in 2011-12. In
developed countries the share of services sector in
GDP is around 75 percent. This share is 65 percent
in Singapore, 52 percent in India and 42 percent in
Indonesia.
The services sector consists of the following subsectors: Transport, Storage and Communication;
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Finance and
Insurance; Ownership of Dwellings; Public
Administration and Defense; and Social Services.
The Services sector has registered a growth rate of
4.02 percent in 2011-12. This performance is
dominated by Finance and Insurance at 6.53
percent, Social and Community Services 6.77
percent and Wholesale and Retail Trade 3.58
percent. The contribution of transport, storage and
communication is estimated at 1.25 percent. The
recovery in agriculture and industry have resulted a
positive impact on the performance of the whole
sale and retail trade. Our services sector has a great
potential to grow at a rapid pace. In order to
develop the services sector, Pakistan has
recognized the needs to liberalize operating rights
and has separated regulators from operators.
Finance and Insurance Sector: The finance and
insurance sector comprises the State Bank of
Pakistan; all scheduled banks (domestic and
foreign), Development Financial Institutions
(DFIs), all insurance (life and general) companies,
Modaraba/Leasing companies, Money Changers
and stock exchange brokers. The financial subsector consists of all resident corporations
principally engaged in financial intermediations or
7
8. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
in auxiliary financial activities related to financial
intermediation. Pakistan’s financial sector is
integrated with the world economy and this is
reflected in its performance. Finance and Insurance
sector recorded positive growth of 6.53 percent in
2011-12 as against contraction of -1.41 percent last
year.
Transport, Storage and Communication: The
role of Transport, Storage and Communication
(TS&C) sector is very important in boosting the
economic activities of the country. The current
global economic crisis and the level of integration
of these sub-sectors in the globalized economy
including the presence of multi national enterprises
(MNEs) in the markets of all countries of the world
puts a greater need for major investments in
physical and qualitative terms to meet expected
demand.
Information
and
Communication
Technologies (ICTs) are perhaps the most critical
tool for a dynamic and flexible services sector. The
TS&C sub-sector grew at 1.25 percent as
compared to 0.87 percent last year. Water
Transport has declined by -3.14 percent during
2011-12, and Air Transport by a massive -27.93
percent. Sub-sectors that showed a positive growth
are; pipeline transport 34.64 percent, road transport
2.88 percent, storage 2.10 percent and
communication 0.93 percent.
Wholesale and Retail Trade Sector: The
wholesale and retail trade sector is based on the
margins taken by traders on the transaction of
commodities traded. In 2011-12, this sector grew
at 3.58 percent as compared to 3.53 percent in the
last year.
Public Administration and Defense: Public
Administration and Defense posted a growth of
2.61 percent as compared to 14.17 percent last
year. The positive change in the wage component
of public sector employees, and an increase in
defense and security related expenditures were
largely responsible for this growth.
Ownership of Dwellings: Ownership of
Dwellings has recorded a growth of 3.51 percent
during the year 2011-12 compared to 1.79 percent
last year. Social Services grew by 6.77 percent
against the last year’s growth of 6.90 percent. The
rise in the growth of Ownership of Dwelling and
social services is mainly due to the fast track work
on reconstruction and rehabilitation of flood
affected areas by government, NGOs and private
sectors.
Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Production Approach)
As in previous years the improvements in
economic growth in the fiscal year 2011-12 came
mainly from the services sector. The services
sector contributed 58.58 percent to overall
economic growth; while the commodity producing
sector (CPS) contributed only 41.4 percent. The
agriculture sector contributed 17.98 percent to
economic growth compared to 23.43 percent
contribution by the industrial sector.
The overall growth of 3.67 percent is shared
between the Commodity producing sector and
Services sector. Within the commodity producing
sector, agriculture contributed 0.66 percentage
points to overall GDP growth, while industry
contributed 0.86 percentage points. The services
sector contributed the remaining 2.15 percentage
points. The percentage share of agriculture,
manufacturing and services in overall growth was
17.98 percent, 23.43 percent and 58.58 percent
respectively. The sectoral contribution to the GDP
growth is shown below in Table-1.3.
Table 1.3: Sectoral Contribution to the GDP growth (% Points)
Sector
2007-08
2008-09
Agriculture
0.23
0.86
Industry
0.38
-0.03
- Manufacturing
0.92
-0.69
Services
3.08
0.89
Real GDP (Fc)
3.68
1.72
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
8
2009-10
0.13
1.57
0.10
1.37
3.07
2010-11
0.50
0.18
0.57
2.36
3.04
2011-12
0.66
0.86
0.66
2.15
3.67
9. Growth and Stabilization
Contribution to Real GDP Growth
(Aggregate Demand Side Analysis)
Consumption is the largest and relatively smooth
component of aggregate demand; the other two
components are investment and net exports. In
every economy of the world consumption may be
disaggregated into the public and private sector
consumption. Similarly investment may be
classified into public and private investment.
Aggregate demand is the sum of consumption,
investment and net exports (exports minus imports)
of the goods and services. Pakistani society like
other developing countries is a consumption
oriented society, having a high marginal propensity
to consume. As a result private consumption is the
major sub-component of aggregate demand.
Private consumption expenditure has increased to
75 percent of GDP, whereas public consumption
expenditures are 13 percent of GDP. Total
consumption has reached 88.35 percent of GDP in
fiscal year 2011-12 compared to 83 percent in the
last fiscal year. Private consumption has increased
on the back of sustained growth in remittances.
Furthermore, increase in rural income due to
higher production of crops and the sharp increase
in commodity prices also supported the
consumption demand.
The share of investment in GDP growth remained
negative. A number of factors may be responsible
for this decline. These include: slow down in
global business activities affecting foreign direct
investment, the decline in the external demand of
the domestic production, serious energy shortages,
unstable law and order situation and higher interest
rates in the recent years. The contribution of net
exports has also been negative. The balance
between investment and consumption has been
disturbed from 2008-09 onwards due to domestic
and external shocks. The composition of aggregate
demand highlights an alarming factor. The
contribution of fixed investment to economic
growth has become negative since 2008-09.
Domestic demand continued to be the most
significant driving force for economic growth, with
private consumption being the major driver for
sustaining aggregate demand.
Table-1.4: Composition of GDP Growth
Point Contribution
Flows
2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Private Consumption
0.8
3.4
-1.9
8.3
-1.5
2.3
8.5
Public Consumption
3.9
-1.1
3.8
-4.2
5.1
0.4
0.9
Total Consumption [C]
4.7
2.3
1.9
4.1
3.6
2.7
9.4
Gross Fixed Investment
2.9
2.2
1.3
-2.7
-1.5
-1.3
-1.5
Change in Stocks
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total Investment [I]
2.9
2.3
1.3
-2.7
-1.4
-1.2
-1.4
Exports (Goods & Serv.) [X]
1.8
0.4
-1.0
-0.6
2.2
2.4
-2.1
Imports (Goods & Serv.) [M]
3.2
-0.7
0.6
-2.7
0.9
0.9
1.7
Net Exports [X-M]
-1.5
1.1
-1.6
2.2
1.3
1.5
-3.8
Aggregate Demand (C+I+X)
9.4
5.0
2.2
0.9
3.5
3.0
5.9
Domestic Demand (C+I)
7.6
4.6
3.2
1.4
2.2
1.5
8.0
GDP MP
6.2
5.7
1.6
3.6
3.5
3.0
4.2
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics
Composition of Gross Domestic Product
The economy of Pakistan, like all developing
economies, is in the process of structural
transformation during the last few decades. There
has been a clear shift away from the Commodity
Producing Sector (CPS) which accounted for
almost 62 percent of the GDP in 1969-70 to 46.46
percent in 2011-12, a decline of 15.54 percent. The
decline in the share of CPS is offset by the increase
in the share of the services sector. A further
breakdown of the CPS shows that the share of the
agriculture sector has been falling over time. In
1969-70, agriculture accounted for 38.9 percent of
9
10. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
GDP. This has gradually declined to 21.1 percent
in 2011-12. The decline in the share of agriculture
in GDP indicates that the non-agriculture sectors
grew more quickly as compared to the agriculture
sector.
Scientific
development
and
revolutionary
innovations in the business climate have
encouraged the manufacturing and services sectors
more than the agriculture sector. Structural, social
and cultural problems of the agriculture sector, the
higher risk and vulnerability to natural calamities
have encouraged investors to switch to the nonagriculture sectors. The contribution of agriculture
to overall GDP will continue to decline as
development takes place. This is an inevitable
consequence of the process of growth and
development.
It has been observed during the last two decades
that the major momentum to economic growth has
come from the services sector which has emerged
as the main driver of the economic growth. Within
the services sector, almost all the sub-sectors have
increasing
contributions.
The
share
of
manufacturing in GDP has remained stagnant, at
around 14.7 percent, for 30 years until 1999-2000.
Its contribution to GDP has increased after 19992000 from 14.7 percent to 18.65 percent in
2011-12.
Table 1.5: Sectoral Share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
(At Constant Factor Cost-in percentage)
1999-00 2004-05
2008-09
2009-10 2010-11
Commodity Producing Sector
49.3
48.7
47.1
47.6
46.7
1. Agriculture
25.9
22.4
21.8
21.2
20.9
- Major Crops
9.6
8.4
7.3
6.9
6.5
- Minor Crops
3.5
2.7
2.5
2.2
2.3
- Livestock
11.7
10.6
11.3
11.4
11.5
- Fishing
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
- Forestry
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
Industrial Sector
23.3
26.3
25.3
26.4
25.8
2. Mining & Quarrying
2.3
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.4
3. Manufacturing
14.7
18.3
18.2
18.6
18.7
- Large Scale
9.5
12.9
12.1
12.3
12.1
- Small Scale
5.2
4.1
4.7
4.9
5.1
4. Construction
2.5
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.5
5. Electricity & Gas Distribution
3.9
3.2
2.5
2.8
2.2
Services Sector
50.7
51.3
52.9
52.4
53.3
6. Transport, Storage & Communication
11.3
10.4
10.2
10.1
10.0
7. Wholesale and Retail Trade
17.5
18.7
16.8
17.0
17.2
8. Finance and Insurance
3.7
4.0
5.7
4.9
4.5
9. Ownership of Dwellings
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
10. Public Admn. & Defence
6.2
5.9
6.1
6.0
6.6
11. Other Services
9.0
9.5
11.3
11.8
12.3
12.GDP (Constant Factor Cost)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source: Economic Adviser’s Wing, Finance Division
P: Provisional
Fig-1.4 presents the structural shift in the
economy. During the last 10 years the sectoral
share of the agriculture sector has decreased from
23 percent to 21.1 percent. The sectoral share of
the manufacturing sector has increased from 18
percent to 18.6 percent and the share of other
industries has remained more or less stagnant
10
2011-12 P
46.46
21.1
6.71
2.13
11.61
0.37
0.24
25.40
2.40
18.65
11.90
6.74
2.15
2.19
53.54
14.12
17.12
4.79
2.72
6.62
12.65
100.0
around 7 percent of the GDP over the last 10 years.
The share of the services sector has increased from
50.9 percent to 53.5 percent in the same period. It
may be concluded that on the whole structural
transformation has been slow during the decade
under discussion. The share of the commodity
11. Growth and Stabilization
producing sector and the services sector has
increased marginally.
Fig-1.4: Contribution to GDP
Other
Industries
7.3%
Other
Industries
6.8%
2001-02
2011-12
Agriculture
24.1%
Agriculture
21.1%
Services
50.9%
Manufactu
ring,17.7%
The government has approved the Framework of
Economic Growth which lays out a wide-ranging
strategy for long term competitiveness and growth.
The strategy focuses on governance, institutions,
markets, connectivity and cities. The government
Services
53.5%
Manufactur
ing 18.6%
is
making
efforts
to
accelerate
the
operationalization of the growth strategy by
initiating specific policies and programs in key
strategic areas. The salient features of the new
growth strategy are summarized in Box-2.
Box-2
New Growth Strategy
New growth strategy is an approach to accelerate economic growth and sustain it. It identified a coherent
approach to growth that goes well beyond projects and targets public service delivery, productivity,
competitive markets, innovation and entrepreneurship
The strategy is based on sustained reform that builds efficient and knowledgeable governance structure, and
markets in attractive and well-connected locations. It focuses on the ‘software’ of economic growth (issues
of economic governance, institutions, incentives, human resources, etc.), and provides an environment in
which the ‘hardware’ of growth (physical infrastructure) could be expanded and made more productive at
every level.
Targeting Growth
Around 68 percent of Pakistan’s population is in the youth category (under 30 years) with the size of the
workforce increasing by over 3 percent annually. To absorb this youth bulge productively, Pakistan's real
GDP needs to grow at an annual average rate in excess of 7 per cent
Efforts will be undertaken to revive the economy to its short term potential GDP growth rate of about 5–6
percent annually. Resolving issues regarding energy and governance and ensuring credible macro stability,
this could be achieved in a short time
Deep and sustained reforms for a number of years in areas such as public sector management, developing
competitive markets, urban management and connecting people and places are the way forward for
accelerating growth to above 7 percent. This is precisely what fast growing economies have done. This is
also the direction towards which Pakistan is now aimed to move.
Thrust of Growth Strategy
Pakistan is facing several external and internal challenges. In order to achieve economic growth in this scenario the
new growth framework has the following characteristics. It does the following:
Puts emphasis on productivity and efficiency beyond brick and mortar perspective
Seeks to build a better government and markets, taking the view that good government complements
11
12. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
efficient, competitive and connected markets
Recognizes that economic well-being is a result of the variety and frequency of economic transactions.
Policy, law and regulation must seek to minimize transaction costs and allow speedy and frequent
transactions.
Focuses on urban development as a crucible for the nurturing of innovation entrepreneurship and
productivity
Includes youth through community development and the provision of market opportunities while
continuing to impart skills and education.
Source: Planning and Development Division
The per capita income in dollar terms has increased
from $ 582 in 2002-03 to $ 1,372 in 2011-12. The
major factors, which contributed in the rise of per
capita income, include acceleration in real GDP
growth, inflows of workers remittances and the
stable exchange rate. Fig 1.5 shows the
improvement in per capita income during the last
ten years.
Per Capita Income:
Per capita income is defined here as Gross
National Product at market price in dollar term
divided by the country’s population. Per capita
income is widely used and recognized as one of the
important indicators of economic growth and
general well-being of a society. Per Capita Income
in dollar terms grew at a modest rate of 9.1percent
in 2011-12 compared to 17.8 percent growth last
year.
Fig-1.5: Per Capita Income ($)
Investment and Savings
Investment plays an important role in the economic
growth of a country. It raises the productive
capacity of the economy, affects the employment
levels, and promotes technological progress
through embodiment of new techniques.
Investment spending is usually volatile, because it
depends on multiple factors. That is why it is
responsible for much of the fluctuations of the
GDP. Investment has been hard hit by international
and domestic factors during the last few years.
Total investment has declined from 22.1 percent of
GDP in 2007-08 to 12.5 percent of GDP in 201112
2011-12
2008-09
1372
1068
2010-11
990
2009-10
1015
2007-08
823
2006-07
724
904
2005-06
663
2004-05
582
2003-04
1258
2002-03
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
12. Fixed investment has decreased to 10.9 percent
of GDP in 2011-12 from 20.5 percent of GDP in
2007-08. Private investment witnessed a
contraction of 7.9 percent in 2011-12 compared to
15.0 percent of GDP in 2007-08. Public investment
as a percent of GDP also declined to 3.0 percent in
2011-12 against the 5.4 percent in 2007-08. The
composition of investment between the private and
public sector has also changed during the period
under review.
The contribution of national savings to domestic
investment is indirectly the mirror image of foreign
13. Growth and Stabilization
savings required to meet investment demand. The
requirement of foreign savings needed to finance
the saving investment gap, reflects the current
account deficit in the balance of payments.
National savings are 10.7 percent of GDP in 201112 compared to 13.6 percent in 2007-08. Domestic
savings have also declined from 11.5 percent of
GDP in 2007-08 to 8.9 percent of GDP in 2011-12.
Net foreign resource inflows are financing the
saving investment gap. Theoretically, there are two
ways of improving the savings investment gap.
One is through increasing savings and the other is
through decreasing investment. Pakistan needs to
gear up both savings and investment to enhance the
employment generating ability of the economy as
well as increase resource availability for
investment.
Public sector investment is crucial for catalyzing
economic development. It creates spillover effects
for private sector investment because private sector
development is facilitated through public sector
development
spending
particularly
on
infrastructure.
However,
curtailment
of
development expenditures limits private sector
development. Public sector investment decreased
from 5.4 percent of GDP in 2007-08 to just 3.0
percent in 2011-12. Saving and Investment as
percentage of GDP are presented in Table 1.6.
Table 1.6: Structure of Savings and Investment (As Percent of GDP)
Description
2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Total Investment
16.6
19.1
22.1
22.5
22.1
18.2
15.4
Changes in Stock
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
Gross Fixed
15.0
17.5
20.5
20.9
20.5
16.6
13.8
Investment
-Public Investment
4.0
4.3
4.8
5.6
5.4
4.3
3.6
-Private Investment
10.9
13.1
15.7
15.4
15.0
12.3
10.2
Foreign Savings
-1.3
1.6
3.9
5.1
8.5
5.7
2.2
National Savings
17.9
17.5
18.2
17.4
13.6
12.5
13.2
Domestic Savings
15.7
15.4
16.3
15.6
11.5
9.8
9.3
Source: EA Wing Calculations
P: Provisional
Foreign Direct Investment
Pakistan has a very fertile market for foreign
investors given its very large consumer base of 180
million people. People need food, energy and other
amenities to live and thrive. There is a great
potential in the power and infrastructure sector and
in natural resources. There seems to be huge scope
for investment in hydel and coal based power
projects, alternative energy like wind power, and
natural gas transmission from foreign lands. The
country also needs infrastructure, world class
education systems, exploration of its natural
resources and mechanization of industries. Foreign
investors can exploit all such opportunities.
Global foreign direct investment will be close to $
800 billion during 2012; less than the $ 1 trillion
achieved in 2007. The Euro crisis has dampened
enthusiasm. However, prospects from East Asia
are looking good. The United States is focusing on
economic revival and its stock markets are
2010-11 2011-12 P
13.1
12.5
1.6
1.6
11.5
10.9
2.9
8.6
-0.1
13.2
13.3
3.0
7.9
1.8
10.7
8.9
responding positively. China, India, Turkey, Brazil
and Indonesia also appear to be moving in a
positive direction.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Pakistan stood
at $ 666.7 million during July-April 2011-12 as
against $ 1292.9 million last year. This is a decline
of 48.4 percent. Oil & Gas Exploration remained
the major sector for foreign investors. The share of
Oil and Gas Exploration in total FDI during JulyApril 2012 stood at 69.8 percent.
Pakistan will certainly attract foreign direct
investment with the resolution of the energy
shortages and improvement in the law and order
situation. The Board of Investment (BOI) under the
Prime Minister’s Secretariat is making efforts to
provide an increasingly investment friendly
environment to investors. Efforts are being made to
facilitate foreign investors in Pakistan with
improved infrastructure and a better working
13
14. Pakistan Economic Survey 2011-12
environment so that the favorable business climate
may induce investors to initiate new investment
projects. In particular, efforts are also going on to
encourage the setting up of fruit processing
industries and more export processing zones in the
country, so that sustained high economic growth
through exports may be achieved.
Workers Remittances
Remittances from overseas Pakistanis have been an
important source of foreign exchange during the
last four years. These have not only provided
critical support to the balance of payments but
have helped in stimulating the domestic economy
and helped to alleviate poverty. Significant flows
of remittances also helped Pakistan to partially
counter the adverse effects of the oil price shocks,
reduce the unemployment problem, and improve
Table-1.7: Country Wise Workers’ Remittances
Country
USA
U.K.
Saudi Arabia
U.A.E.
Other GCC Countries
EU Countries
Total
Source: SBP
* : Provisional
06-07
1459.64
430.04
1023.56
866.49
757.33
149.00
5493.65
The upsurge in the remittances may be attributed to
the government’s efforts for redirecting these flows
from informal to formal channels. Bilateral
arrangements of commercial banks with foreign
entities under Pakistan Remittance Initiatives (PRI)
have helped facilitate movement in this direction.
Furthermore, initiatives under the PRI such as
introduced Xpress money, Inter bank Fund
Transfer (IBFT) facility have also helped to
improve the remittance flow to Pakistan. Increase
in remittances is also the result of the higher
demand of Pakistani workers. An overview of
country wise remittances is presented in Table 1.7.
US$ Million
07-08
1762.03
458.87
1251.32
1090.30
983.39
176.64
6451.24
Workers’ Remittances totaled $ 10,876.99 million
in July-April of 2011-12, as against $ 9,046.61
million in the comparable period of last year. This
is an increase of 20.23 percent. Remittances from
Saudi Arabia recorded massive growth of 43.25
percent, followed by U.K. (27.52 percent), USA
(14.57 percent), Other GCC countries (15.34
percent) and UAE (14.10 percent) during the
period under review. Monthly data on remittances
suggests that the monthly average for the period of
July-April 2011-12 stood at $ 1,087.70 million
compared to $ 904.66 million during the
corresponding period last year.
Prospects of Economic Growth
Pakistan’s economy is resilient. This resilience
comes from the potential as well as the growth in
remittances and in the informal economy. Despite
positive developments including the easing of
14
the standard of living of recipient households.
08-09
1735.87
605.59
1559.56
1688.59
1202.65
247.66
7811.43
09-10
1771.19
876.38
1917.66
2038.52
1237.86
252.21
8905.90
10-11
2068.87
1199.67
2670.07
2597.74
1306.18
354.76
11200.97
July-April*
11-12
1922.35
1263.67
2987.86
2386.26
1226.61
304.59
10,876.99
inflation and reduction in fiscal deficit, Pakistan’s
economy remains in an unsteady state with slow
growth, fragile macroeconomic fundamentals, and
heightened vulnerability to balance of payments
shock. Key problems affecting the economy
include energy shortages and a host of structural
impediments that have held back investment and
growth. Necessary reforms are under process to
remove the structural impediments.
Reinitiating the privatization process will attract
foreign investment for Pakistan. Foreign
investment may also be attracted from the Middle
East in agriculture and livestock sectors. Many of
these countries need an assured supply of items
like wheat, rice, milk, poultry meat, edible oil,
flowers, fruit and vegetables and are ready to
invest on the basis of long-term supply contracts.
15. Growth and Stabilization
Savings are the mover of growth. Policies are
being implemented which give savings incentives
such as, tax breaks and compulsory savings in
employee provident funds. The government is
aware that several long term savings instruments
may need to be developed to increase household
savings. There is also need to expand the network
of National Savings Schemes, microfinance
institutions, banks and postal savings to far flung
areas of the country. These have been and are the
focus of the government’s attention.
Measures to stimulate growth will not yield full
potential unless the structural weaknesses
responsible for the decline in the investment are
addressed. This decline is due largely to the
unstable security situation. The shortage and high
cost of energy, and the rising cost of doing
business in Pakistan are also contributing to the
decline. The government is making efforts to
address these negative factors in order to improve
investment climate in the country.
Pakistan’s middle class has expanded and is
currently estimated at 35 percent of the population.
Having substantial size and composition primarily
urban and associated with professional white-collar
occupations the middle class may play a major role
in boosting economic growth. A vibrant middle
class not only generates demand of goods and
services but also the savings required to fund
productive investments. Moreover, the middle
class households provide a breeding ground for the
professional and skilled labour force. Such human
capital is essential for growth in the long run. With
the existence of such a vibrant middle class the
consumer goods industry can provide a strong
impetus to economic growth. Despite an overall
slump in the economy, the consumer goods
industry in Pakistan has registered a steady growth
and has a great potential for further expansion.
There is rising trend of youth entrepreneurship in
Pakistan. Many young entrepreneurs have
succeeded in establishing various businesses that
are booming. This has produced a strong
demonstration effect for others to follow. These
young entrepreneurs have the potential to cause a
paradigm shift in the economic fortunes of
Pakistan. The opening up of trade with India is
another major initiative that can boost economic
growth by providing greater market access as well
as easy and cheaper availability of raw materials
for domestic producers.
15