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Balance of Payment
          Analysis


Presented by-
Nilesh Patil
Abhijit Patil
Mrunmayi Patil
Saurav Naik
Deepak Maru



                 07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   1
What Is BOP ?
   The balance of payments accounts are those that record all

    transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all

    foreign nations.

    The BOP is determined by the country's exports and imports of

    goods, services, and financial capital, as well as financial transfers.

   It reflects all payments and liabilities to foreigners (debits) and all

    payments and obligations received from foreigners (credits).

   Balance of payments is one of the major indicators of a country's

    status in international trade




                                    07/17/12   International Finance _ 1      2
BOP Consists of
◦ The Current Account

◦ The Capital Account

◦ Official Reserves Account

◦ Errors and Omissions




                 07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   3
Current Account
   Includes all imports and exports of goods
    and services.
   Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid.
   If the debits exceed the credits, then a
    country is running a trade deficit.
   If the credits exceed the debits, then a
    country is running a trade surplus.


                         07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   4
Current Account
1.   Export & Import of Merchandise & Services

3. Income Account
   (The income account accounts mostly for
   investment income from dividends and interest
   on credit and payments on foreign taxes.)
5. Transfer payment
   (Grants received / given, Pvt. Transfer)




                                07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   5
Capital Account
    Foreign Investment(FDI, FII)
n   Banking Capital (NRI Deposits)
(   Short term credit
t   External Commercial
    Borrowings(ECB)




                    07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   6
Capital Account
   If foreign ownership of domestic
    financial assets has increased more
    quickly than domestic ownership of
    foreign assets in a given year, then
    the domestic country has a capital
    account surplus.
   On the other hand, if domestic
    ownership of foreign financial assets
    has increased more quickly than
    foreign ownership of domestic assets,
    then the domestic country has a
    capital account deficit.
                     07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   7
Official International Reserves
    The official international reserve account
     records the change in stock of official
     international reserve assets (also known
     as foreign exchange reserves) at the
     country's monetary authority .

    Official reserves assets include gold
     reserves, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve
     positions in the IMF.

    {Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are
     potential claims on the freely usable
     currencies of IMF members.}

                         07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   8
Net errors and omissions

 This is the last component of the
  balance of payments and
  principally exists to correct any
  possible errors made in
  accounting for the three other
  accounts.
 They are often referred to as
  "balancing items".


                 07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   9
07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   10
Major Highlights of BOP during
    April-March 2011-12
 During the financial year 2011-12, while growth in
  exports decelerated sharply to 23.6 per cent (37.5
  per cent in 2010-11), imports grew by 31.1 per cent
  as compared with 26.7 per cent in the previous year,
  mainly reflecting higher imports of gold & silver.
 Imports of oil, which grew by 46.9 per cent, and of
  precious metals which grew by 49.4 per cent,
  together contributed nearly 45 per cent of total
  imports during the year. Especially, international
  price of the Indian basket of crude oil increased from
  US$ 85.1 per barrel in 2010-11 to US$ 111.9 per
  barrel in 2011-12.
 Consequently, the trade deficit widened to US$ 189.7
  billion in 2011-12 from US$ 130.4 billion in 2010-11.


                          07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   11
 During the year, CAD widened to the highest ever
  level both in absolute terms and as a proportion of
  GDP. The CAD at US$ 78.2 billion was 4.2 per cent of
  GDP in 2011-12 as compared with US$ 46.0 billion or
  2.7 per cent of GDP during the previous year. The
  rise in CAD-GDP ratio was also resulted from slower
  GDP growth and its contraction in dollar terms due to
  depreciation of rupee.
 FDI inflows and NRI deposits, in net terms, were
  higher at US$ 22.1 billion and US$ 11.9 billion,
  respectively, while portfolio net flows slowed down to
  US$ 16.6 billion in 2011-12.




                          07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   12
07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   13
Major Highlights of BOP during
    April-March 2010-11
 During the year as a whole i.e. April-March 2010-11,
  despite improvement in net invisibles surplus, higher
  trade deficit led to increase in absolute size of current
  account deficit. However, as a proportion of GDP,
  CAD was marginally lower than the preceding year.
 In absolute terms, on BoP basis, the trade deficit
  widened to US$ 130.5 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP)
  during 2010-11 from US$ 118.4 billion (8.6 per cent
  of GDP) a year ago.
 Net invisibles earnings increased to US$ 86.2 billion
  from US$ 80.0 billion last year.
 The CAD at US$ 44.3 billion works out to 2.6 per cent
  of GDP during 2010-11 as compared to US$ 38.4
  billion (2.8 per cent of GDP) a year ago.


                           07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   14
   Net capital inflows increased to US$ 59.7
    billion mainly driven by external assistance,
    short-term trade credits, ECBs and banking
    capital.
   Although net capital inflows were higher,
    accretion to foreign exchange reserves
    during 2010-11 was marginally lower as a
    larger share of increased flows was absorbed
    by the widened current account deficit.




                        07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   15
07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   16
Major Highlights of BOP during
    April-March 2009-10
 On a BoP basis, the trade deficit decreased marginally
  to US$ 117.3 billion (8.9 per cent of GDP) during
  2009-10 from US$ 118.7 billion (9.8 per cent of GDP)
  a year ago.
 The current account deficit was higher at US$ 38.4
  billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) during 2009-10, as
  compared with US$ 28.7 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP)
  during 2008-09, mainly due to lower net invisibles
  surplus.
 The surplus in the capital account increased sharply
  to US$ 53.6 billion (4.1 per cent of GDP) during the
  year from US$ 7.3 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) a
  year ago.



                          07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   17
   As the surplus in the capital account
    exceeded the current account deficit, there
    was a net accretion to foreign exchange
    reserves of US$ 13.4 billion during 2009-10
    (as against a drawdown of reserves of US$
    20.1 billion during 2008-09).




                       07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   18
Thank
    You

   07/17/12   International Finance _ 1   19

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Balence of payments of India

  • 1. Balance of Payment Analysis Presented by- Nilesh Patil Abhijit Patil Mrunmayi Patil Saurav Naik Deepak Maru 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 1
  • 2. What Is BOP ?  The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations.  The BOP is determined by the country's exports and imports of goods, services, and financial capital, as well as financial transfers.  It reflects all payments and liabilities to foreigners (debits) and all payments and obligations received from foreigners (credits).  Balance of payments is one of the major indicators of a country's status in international trade 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 2
  • 3. BOP Consists of ◦ The Current Account ◦ The Capital Account ◦ Official Reserves Account ◦ Errors and Omissions 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 3
  • 4. Current Account  Includes all imports and exports of goods and services.  Includes unilateral transfers of foreign aid.  If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a trade deficit.  If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a trade surplus. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 4
  • 5. Current Account 1. Export & Import of Merchandise & Services 3. Income Account (The income account accounts mostly for investment income from dividends and interest on credit and payments on foreign taxes.) 5. Transfer payment (Grants received / given, Pvt. Transfer) 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 5
  • 6. Capital Account Foreign Investment(FDI, FII) n Banking Capital (NRI Deposits) ( Short term credit t External Commercial Borrowings(ECB) 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 6
  • 7. Capital Account  If foreign ownership of domestic financial assets has increased more quickly than domestic ownership of foreign assets in a given year, then the domestic country has a capital account surplus.  On the other hand, if domestic ownership of foreign financial assets has increased more quickly than foreign ownership of domestic assets, then the domestic country has a capital account deficit. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 7
  • 8. Official International Reserves  The official international reserve account records the change in stock of official international reserve assets (also known as foreign exchange reserves) at the country's monetary authority .  Official reserves assets include gold reserves, foreign currencies, SDRs, reserve positions in the IMF.  {Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are potential claims on the freely usable currencies of IMF members.} 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 8
  • 9. Net errors and omissions  This is the last component of the balance of payments and principally exists to correct any possible errors made in accounting for the three other accounts.  They are often referred to as "balancing items". 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 9
  • 10. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 10
  • 11. Major Highlights of BOP during April-March 2011-12  During the financial year 2011-12, while growth in exports decelerated sharply to 23.6 per cent (37.5 per cent in 2010-11), imports grew by 31.1 per cent as compared with 26.7 per cent in the previous year, mainly reflecting higher imports of gold & silver.  Imports of oil, which grew by 46.9 per cent, and of precious metals which grew by 49.4 per cent, together contributed nearly 45 per cent of total imports during the year. Especially, international price of the Indian basket of crude oil increased from US$ 85.1 per barrel in 2010-11 to US$ 111.9 per barrel in 2011-12.  Consequently, the trade deficit widened to US$ 189.7 billion in 2011-12 from US$ 130.4 billion in 2010-11. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 11
  • 12.  During the year, CAD widened to the highest ever level both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP. The CAD at US$ 78.2 billion was 4.2 per cent of GDP in 2011-12 as compared with US$ 46.0 billion or 2.7 per cent of GDP during the previous year. The rise in CAD-GDP ratio was also resulted from slower GDP growth and its contraction in dollar terms due to depreciation of rupee.  FDI inflows and NRI deposits, in net terms, were higher at US$ 22.1 billion and US$ 11.9 billion, respectively, while portfolio net flows slowed down to US$ 16.6 billion in 2011-12. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 12
  • 13. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 13
  • 14. Major Highlights of BOP during April-March 2010-11  During the year as a whole i.e. April-March 2010-11, despite improvement in net invisibles surplus, higher trade deficit led to increase in absolute size of current account deficit. However, as a proportion of GDP, CAD was marginally lower than the preceding year.  In absolute terms, on BoP basis, the trade deficit widened to US$ 130.5 billion (7.5 per cent of GDP) during 2010-11 from US$ 118.4 billion (8.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago.  Net invisibles earnings increased to US$ 86.2 billion from US$ 80.0 billion last year.  The CAD at US$ 44.3 billion works out to 2.6 per cent of GDP during 2010-11 as compared to US$ 38.4 billion (2.8 per cent of GDP) a year ago. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 14
  • 15. Net capital inflows increased to US$ 59.7 billion mainly driven by external assistance, short-term trade credits, ECBs and banking capital.  Although net capital inflows were higher, accretion to foreign exchange reserves during 2010-11 was marginally lower as a larger share of increased flows was absorbed by the widened current account deficit. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 15
  • 16. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 16
  • 17. Major Highlights of BOP during April-March 2009-10  On a BoP basis, the trade deficit decreased marginally to US$ 117.3 billion (8.9 per cent of GDP) during 2009-10 from US$ 118.7 billion (9.8 per cent of GDP) a year ago.  The current account deficit was higher at US$ 38.4 billion (2.9 per cent of GDP) during 2009-10, as compared with US$ 28.7 billion (2.4 per cent of GDP) during 2008-09, mainly due to lower net invisibles surplus.  The surplus in the capital account increased sharply to US$ 53.6 billion (4.1 per cent of GDP) during the year from US$ 7.3 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago. 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 17
  • 18. As the surplus in the capital account exceeded the current account deficit, there was a net accretion to foreign exchange reserves of US$ 13.4 billion during 2009-10 (as against a drawdown of reserves of US$ 20.1 billion during 2008-09). 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 18
  • 19. Thank You 07/17/12 International Finance _ 1 19