Streamlining Python Development: A Guide to a Modern Project Setup
Australia china acedp mdba breifing final
1. Oldest continuous
culture
Australia’s Murray Darling – an overview
Pondi story 40k
years Jason Alexandra February 2011
60 million years of separate evolution
2. Structure –
1. Nature of the basin
2. A brief history of water policy
3. The Basin Plan
4. Challenges ahead, including climate
change
6. Some tentative conclusions
3. Water is a strategic resource (and lack of it a limitation).
Excellence in water governance is a strategic opportunity.
Energy rich and water poor – learn to live like
Australians
Accept the nature of the place
4. 1 The nature of river basins
River systems are highly evolved, co-evolved
complex systems based on long term and
complex “negotiations” between culture and
nature
6. Its today news ….but it’s a bigger,
longer story of water reform
7. What
is
the
MDB?
A
large
flat
semi
arid
basin.
A
hydro-‐graphic
unit.
An
icon?
An
example
of
coopera?ve
federalism
and
a
challenge
to
it?
A
21
C
test
bed
for
ESD?
8. Understanding the basics eg
average rainfall and runoff
generation Distribu?on
of
Australia’s
surface
run-‐off
>1 mill
i o n km
Austra 2 = 1/7
lia, size th of
Spain of Fran
ce and
Covers
Territor 5 States and
ies
>popul
at
people ion of 2 millio
n
> 40%
agricul
tural pr
oduce
11. A river, a basin, a story, a nation and its symbols
A changing relationship with nature
Murray mouth, Coorong and lower lakes
12. Climate change: adds new challenges for basin
management, adding to old challenges.
We need integrated planning and assessments
Complexity of climate and ecological systems
Invest in scientific capacity
- dynamic non steady state systems
Critical questions re thresholds and tipping
points
14. Cumula?ve,
compounding
and
synergis?c
effects
Difficulty
in
predic?ng
and
avoiding
?pping
points
in
natural
systems
–
eg
Aral
Sea
15. Australia - an ancient nutrient poor land
with low population, limited industrial
development and poor water quality and
ecological condition in most rivers
16. Australian ecosystems evolved to capture water
and nutrients. When disturbed through clearing
for agriculture they leak salt, soils, nutrients
17. Modified catchments, Very high nutrient and
nutrient and suspended suspended sediment loads
sediment loads and habitat
Largely unmodified
River and catchment Condition
18. Cost and consequences of transforming an ancient continent
Most agricultural lands have erosion 5-50 times greater than pre-European settlement.
4M tonnes of sediment pa and phosphorus exports - about 13,000 tonnes pa
20. Responsibility for 60 million years
of separate evolution
International obligations to protect biodiversity -
creation stories or extinction stories?
21. Ramsar wetlands - Australia’s
international obligations? 16 in MDB
• ~28,000
Narran Gwydir
• 6.3 million ha
Lakes wetlands
• 98% floodplains
• ~3% protected
Macquarie
Marshes
Lowbidgee
floodplain
Coorong Chowilla
floodplain Kulkyne Barmah-Millewa
Lakes Forest
22. “Successive Governments sponsored
headline
closer settlement and intensive irrigation
development, with “dreams of taming the
copy
rivers, greening the desert, and making
land productive, running deep in the
national psyche” (Lines 1994) and
notwithstanding, punishing droughts and
misconceptions about the severity of the
natural constraints to settlement and
production (Taylor 1940).
23. “dreams of taming the rivers, greening the desert, and
making land productive, run deep in the national psyche”
Large
dams
era
1920-‐1980’s
–
na?on
building
and
response
to
climate
variability?
1990’s
new
policy
direc?ons
26. Government funded development of dams
Periods of water diversion development (Kingsford)
18,000,000
Murray
Darling
Capacity (ML)
12,000,000
6,000,000
1890 1912 1934 1956 1978 2000
30. Irrigation crop and technology changes
Water use efficiency through technology,
Knowledge of crop demands – eg partial root zone
drying
31. Building
on
past
reform
1901
1914
Cons3tu3on
River
Murray
1987
Commission
Murray-‐Darling
1990’s
Basin
Commission
Cap
on
Diversions
&
Water
markets
2004
Na3onal
Water
2007
Ini3a3ve
Commonwealth
2008
2010
&
Water
Act
COAG
Guide
to
the
The
Living
&
Agreement
proposed
Basin
Murray
First
Step
Murray-‐Darling
Plan
Basin
Authority
31
32. A brief history of Australian water policy
1890’s – 1980’s Development era – “drought,
royal commission, new dam”
1994 COAG reforms – environmental flows,
unbundling water and land “titles”; corporatisation
and cost recovery
1995 – MDB “Cap” on more extractions
National Water Initiative 2004 – reaffirms
commitments to reform agenda, eflows and
markets’ role in reallocating water
35. Objec?ves
of
the
proposed
Plan
• Ecological
health
-‐
op?mise
social,
cultural
and
economic
wellbeing
• Sustainable
limits
on
take
• Environmental
resilience
• Appropriate
water
quality
• Efficient
and
effec?ve
water
markets
35
36. Water
Act
requirements
Basin
Plan
must
contain
15
elements,
including:
• Sustainable
diversion
limits
(SDLs)
• Cri?cal
human
water
needs
• Water
trading
rules
• Environmental
Watering
Plan
• Water
Quality
&
Salinity
Management
Plan
36
37. Water
Act
requirements
In
preparing
the
Plan,
the
Authority
must
take
into
account
:
• best
available
science
and
socio-‐economic
analysis
and
• the
principles
of
ecologically
sustainable
development
37
38. How it will work
Long
Term
Planning
Annual
Management
State
Basin
Water
Commonwealth
State
SDL
Plan
Resource
Accredita?on
Alloca?ons
Compliance
Plan
State
and
territory
water
Evalua?ng
agencies
Success
MDBA
38
39. When it takes effect
proposed Final
Basin Basin
Plan Plan
39
2010 2014 2020
40. Working
out
the
Sustainable
diversion
limit
How
much
addi?onal
water
does
the
environment
need?
What
are
the
poten?al
impacts
on
the
community?
What
are
the
sustainable
diversion
limit
proposals?
How
to
manage
the
transi?on?
40
41. 30,000 wetlands
2,442 key
environmental assets
4 key ecosystem
functions
106 hydrological
indicator sites
18 KEAs 88 KEFs
Range of additional
surface water for the
environment:
3,000 - 7,600 GL/y
41
41
45. 30,000 wetlands
2,442 key
environmental
assets
4 key ecosystem
functions
106 hydrological
indicator sites
(18 key assets,
88 key functions)
3,000 to 7,600
GL additional
surface water
needed for the
45
environment
46. Current
diversion
limits
All
types
of
take
=
total
13,700
GL/y
• For
surface
water
:
– Watercourse
diversions
=
10,940
GL/y
• Diversions
from
streams
• Floodplain
harves?ng
– Intercep?on
ac?vi?es
=
2,740
GL/y
• Farm
dams
and
forestry
planta?ons
– SDL
proposed
reduc?on
of
3000
to
4000
GL/y
– Or
about
1
third
46
47. Sustainable diversion limit proposals: surface water
Water resource plan areas
Murray-‐Darling
Basin
CURRENT
SDL
PROPOSALS
13,700
9,700
–
10,700
3000-‐4000
gl/y
or
22
–
29%
reduc3on
Long term
average
47
reduction (GL/y)
48. Socio-‐economic
impact
assessment
Industry
impacts
High
Irrigated
broadacre
agriculture
Medium
Cojon
and
dairy
Low
High
value
perennial
hor?culture
(trade
a
major
contribu?ng
factor)
Regions
most
impacted
(by
$
value)
Southern
Basin
Murrumbidgee,
Goulburn-‐Broken,
NSW
&
Vic
Murray,
Loddon-‐Avoca
Northern
Basin
Gwydir,
Condamine-‐Balonne,
Namoi,
Macquarie-‐Castlereagh
48
49. Basin
plan
content
• Cri?cal
human
water
needs
(s.86A)
• Environmental
Watering
Plan
(item
9)
• Water
Quality
and
Salinity
Management
Plan
(item
10)
• Trading
rules
(item
12)
• Water
resource
plan
accredita?on
requirements
(item
11)
• Monitoring
and
Evalua?on
Plan
(item
13)
• Compliance
(item
8)
49
51. Environmental
Watering
Plan
Objec?ves,
principles
and
methods
to
plan
and
priori?se
Framework
for
planning,
coordina?ng
and
managing
environmental
water
• Regional
long
term
planning
(Basin
states)
• Regional
priori?sa?on
(Basin
states)
• Basin-‐scale
priori?sa?on
(MDBA)
• Annual
monitoring,
evalua?on
and
repor?ng
51
52. Water
Quality
&
Salinity
Management
Plan
-‐
Item
10
• Water
quality
parameters:
– Salinity
– blue-‐green
algae
– Temperature
– dissolved
oxygen
– Turbidity
– Toxicants
– Nutrients
– pH
• Targets
are
non-‐mandatory
• State
water
resource
plans
must
include
a
Water
Quality
Management
Plan
52
53. Water trading rules – Item 12
• Commence
when
Plan
adopted
For
all
water
resources
and
holders
of
tradable
water
rights
and
aim
to
– reduce
barriers
to
trade
– minimise
transac?on
costs
– Provide
consistent
informa?on
– protect
environmental
requirements
• State
trading
rules
must
comply
with
the
Basin
Plan
53
54. Challenges ahead - The approaching storm?
climate chaos!!! And its impacts!!!
55. Climate Climate Change
change is likely
to be the
greatest yet
most uncertain
threat to the
shared water
resources of “Most of the effects of
the MDB
climate change operate
Up to 4400 GL/ through water”
yr reduction in
flows in 20 Sir Nicholas Stern, 2007
years
56. Future
Projec?ons
• Global
emissions
tracking
on
the
higher
IPCC
scenarios
(such
as
A1F1)
• Warmer
drier
condi?ons
in
the
future
under
all
global
emission
scenario’s
Projected changes in run-off at 2030
under scenario A1B, showing the
number of climate models (out of 15)
yielding an increase or decease in
run-off; from F. Chiew.
57. Climate is hotter and drier
Global average temperature Satellite estimate of soil moisture
Australian average temperature
58. lack of sustained combined with
intervening wet record high
periods temperatures
most notably in
autumn → a drought
without
historical
precedent in
Southeastern
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2008
Australia
59. Climate change projections – CSIRO (Chew)
• Large uncertainties in global warming
projections – dependent on
greenhouse gas emission and global
climate sensitivity to increased
greenhouse gas concentrations.
• As a result of global warming
- extreme rainfall will be more intense
- some regions will have more rainfall,
other regions will have less rainfall.
• Large uncertainties in GCM modelling
of local rainfall response to global
warming.
60. What
if
this
Drought
is
Different?
If
the
factors
that
make
Australia’s
climate
variable
are
vulnerable
to
global
warning?
New
states
or
frequency?
Key River Murray
Catchment Area
62. Rainfall
&
Streamflow
•
(hypothe?cal
catchment)
30 units
20 units
streamflow
streamflow
100 rainfall units
90 rainfall units
70 units 70 units
evaporation, evaporation,
transpiration & transpiration &
soil moisture soil moisture
threshold threshold
10% less rainfall 30% less streamflow
63. Lower
rainfall
=
much
lower
Streamflow
CSIRO and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2007)
64. Water scarcity eg Murray mouth – no flows to sea for
years – major ecological effects
CLIMATE uncertainty.
Crude water balance
ET = 94% of P precipitation 6% = R (runoff, rivers, wetlands,
2% = end of system or total irrigation demand) (Roderick
and Farquhar 2009)
What if ET goes up and P goes down ?
Rainfall decline is amplified 4 times in reduced runoff
With irrigation all R is converted to ET via infrastructure –
therefore almost no flow to ocean (lower lakes)
65. Possible Impacts of Climate
Change on Other Risks
? Climate ?
change Increased demand
Higher evaporation. for groundwater as
More farm dams as surface water
surface water
? ? availability reduces?
availability reduces?
?
Greater irrigation Higher frequency
efficiency as surface Increased forest and intensity of
water availability evapo-transpiration bushfires due to
reduces? due to higher higher temps and
temps? worse droughts?
67. Extraction Groundwater
can lead to
loss of
surface
water.
Can be big
lag times
68. Growth
in
Water
Bodies
Between
1994-‐2005
–
near
Alexandra
● Existing water bodies - 1994
● New water bodies - 2005
Source: Geoscience Australia
69. The
Big
Challenges
The tough issues are all framed by and driven by
• Climate change,
• Economic change
• Water policy reform – including eflows
• Change in values and understanding
Major change is inevitable (happening), but what
roles for government ?
Policies to support adaptations and transitions?
Maintain reform momentum
Govern resources in the public interest
70. More
Challenges
Planning under deep uncertainty – stationarity is
dead.
Climate impact and risk management
Appropriate institutions and policies for adaptation;
Policy science integration? Need for robust analysis
and auditing of performance
Understanding and acting on thresholds of change –
not crash testing
71. Conclusion 1: develop capacity for robust water
policy under uncertainty
Use scenarios - plan for extremes - eg low water availability
and deeper drought/climate change impacts
Plan for long term reductions in rainfall and runoff
Accept a future of intense competition for water
Recognise nature as a legitimate user
In face of uncertainty:
• Institutional and policy innovation required
• Build diverse, local adaptive capacity
• Adopt policies to support adjustment and adaptation eg
water market reforms supports risk management and local
adaptation
72. Conclusions 2: Water and drought
Learn to live as
Australia’s
Water is a limited
resource!
Bush burns!
Floodplains flood!
Droughts dry out the
country –
70 out of 200 years
73. River
basin
management
involves
culture,
prac3ce
and
governance.
We
need
innova3on
system
and
governance
systems
that
work.
New
strategic
R&D
interven3ons
–
from
problem
solving
to
shared
learning
and
system
solu3ons
74. Conclusions
3:
Pedagogy
of
complexity
–
Water
is
connected
to
everything
-‐
Interrelated
issues
require
mul?-‐disciplinary,
integrated
and
holis?c
approaches
Campbell 2008
75.
76. …“ideas are all Australia has … Not military might, or
a large population, or unique resources. … Ideas are
what must sustain our democracy, nurture our
community and drive our economy into new areas
(Paul Keating (2002)
