This does notmeanthatglacier are not important locally even if the basin NMI is lowThis is illustratedbythis plot showing the glacialmeltcontribution in space in the AmuDaryaandSyrDaryabasinsGlacier delay runoff, natural store of water andprovide a constant baseflowduring the meltseason
David molden sikkim 2
Can mountains deliverenough water for the future?Climate change, and the supply anddemand of a scarce resource forfood, energy and environmentalsecurityInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain DevelopmentKathmandu, NepalDavid Molden
Importance of Mountain RegionsMountains occupy 24% of global land surface; home to 12% population; About 10%of world’s population directly depend on the mountains for their livelihoods; 40%indirectly depend on water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and nicheproducts, mineral resources, recreation, and flood control
• How much more water is needed for food, drinking, energy and environment?
How much water do you consume?Drinking water – 2 to 5 liters per dayHousehold Use – 20 to 2,000 liters per day1 kg rice – 500 to 3,000 liters1 kg beef – 5,000 to 20,000 litersDaily Diet – 2,000 to 5,000 liters per day depending on diets and how food is produced
Limits – Reached orBreachedLand degradation – limits productivityRiver basins closed –Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water leftGroundwater overdraft – in breadbaskets and rice bowlsFisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalentLivestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come based on feed
Groundwater Overexploitation, - but also opportunities for use Breadbasket Areas dependent on GWGlobal map of groundwater depletion, where 1000 on the legend is equal to onecubic kilometer of depletion per year. Source: Wada, Y., van Beek, L.P.H., van Kempen, C.M.,Reckman, J.W.T.M., Vasak, S. and Bierkens, M.F.P. (2010) Global depletion of groundwater resources.
Water Scarcity 20001/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Drivers Pressures & Water UseOther Water of Land Population & Diet – food grain production projected to increase by over 70% by 2050 Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025, encroach on ag land Agriculture – Increased water use and land expansion behind production increases Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability
More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050More calories & more meat, fish, milkMore food production –grain productionincrease 70 to 100% by 2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 Today 2050 No Water Productivity GainsBased on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains,Source:IWMI Crop ET doubles by 2050
Agriculture ET in 2000 and 2050 no water productivity gains 3215 Need to produce 2860 more food, but minimize extra water use – Change is needed 1692 1505 312 164South East Asia Central Asia Source:Asia IWMI
Installed and potential hydropowerpotential in the Himalayan region Country Potential Installed % (MW) (MW) contribution to total supply Bhutan 23,760 1,465 100 China 272,000 NA 16.4 India 114,398 24,530 17.4 Nepal 42,630 658 92 Pakistan 46,000 6,608 33.4
Water Use – Today and 2050 Today No Water Productivity Gains 2050 CA Scenario CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can further reduce water needsBased on WaterSim analysis for the CA by IWMI
Conclusion • The demand is growing, yet water is already scarce in the region. • There is scope for management improvement.
With Climate Change,Can Mountains Deliver EnoughWater?
Impacts of Climate Change• Changes in glaciers and snow• More natural disasters• Impact on water, food, and energy• Species migration & biodiversity loss• Changes in vegetation cover• Women and children at front line
How Much Water Will be Available? www.icimod.org1.2 Billion People Downstream
Elevation-temperature trend relationship(Tibetan Plateau) Liu and Chen, 2000
Impact of Climate Change -Imja Glacier, Nepal 1956photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Fritz Muller; courtesy of Jack Ives) 2006photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Giovanni Kappenbergercourtesy of Alton C Byers)
56 GLOF events in HKH region:Bhutan 4, China 29, Nepal 14, Pakistan 9,10 transboundary
Importance of melt water Amu Darya River Source Walter Immerzeel
Black Carbon• Brick kilns• Cook-stoves• Open burning• Diesel vehicles• Forest fires
Black Carbon MitigationMultiple Benefits Nov to April SkiesMultiple Benefits of Mitigation:•Less temperature rise•Reduced glacial and snow melt•Health benefits
Mountains and Water Supply • Glaciers are retreating, with some exceptions, like Karakorum. • Flow depends on glacier, snow and permafrost melt; but rain is often dominant. • Dry areas and mountains areas close to source are more vulnerable to glacier melt. • Changes in timing and variability – a major concern – floods and droughts
Number of events 0 5 10 15 20 30 35 40 25 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990Source: EMDAT OFDA CRED Database 1992 1994 Flood events in the HKH 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1. Reduce vulnerabilities tofloods and droughts • Increase monitoring and early warning • Increased attention to glacial lakes • Invest in water storage – including conservation of natural storage • Work across borders to share information and experience
2. Find solutions in the water-food-energy nexus • Hydropower-food-livelihoods-environment: increase synergies, deal with tradeoffs • Clean energy to reduce black carbon and glacier melt
3. Improved LandscapeManagement • Watershed management • Address shifting cultivation • Local and regional (US/DS) payoffs
Community ManagementSource: Robert Yoder, IWMI
4. Value services provided bymountain people and ecosystems • Compensate for them • Provide economic incentives to communities • Work across borders
5. Reduce scientificuncertainties • About the cryosphere • Indigenous and local knowledge • Address data gaps Himalayas: A blank spot in IPCC AR4
6. Put mountains on the globalagenda • Mountains are a global resource for food, energy, biodiversity • Global and regional activities put mountains and mountain people under pressure • National, regional and global attention must go to mountains