Inaugural n Plenary Day I May 25th Keynote talk

1. Can mountains deliver
enough water for the future?
Climate change, and the supply and
demand of a scarce resource for
food, energy and environmental
security
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
David Molden

2. Importance of Mountain Regions
Mountains occupy 24% of global land surface; home to 12% population; About 10%
of world’s population directly depend on the mountains for their livelihoods; 40%
indirectly depend on water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and niche
products, mineral resources, recreation, and flood control

3. • How much more water is needed for food,
drinking, energy and environment?

4. How much water do you consume?
Drinking water – 2 to 5 liters per day
Household Use – 20 to 2,000 liters per day
1 kg rice – 500 to 3,000 liters
1 kg beef – 5,000 to 20,000 liters
Daily Diet – 2,000 to 5,000 liters per day
depending on diets and
how food is produced

5. Limits – Reached or
Breached
Land degradation – limits productivity
River basins closed –Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya
……… no additional water left
Groundwater overdraft – in breadbaskets and rice
bowls
Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit,
aquaculture will become more prevalent
Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will
come based on feed

6. Groundwater
Overexploitation, -
but also opportunities for use
Breadbasket Areas
dependent on GW
Global map of groundwater depletion, where 1000 on the legend is equal to one
cubic kilometer of depletion per year. Source: Wada, Y., van Beek, L.P.H., van Kempen, C.M.,
Reckman, J.W.T.M., Vasak, S. and Bierkens, M.F.P. (2010) Global depletion of groundwater resources.

7. Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity

8. Drivers Pressures & Water Use
Other Water
of Land
Population & Diet – food grain production
projected to increase by over 70% by 2050
Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150%
more water in 2025, encroach on ag land
Agriculture – Increased water use and land
expansion behind production increases
Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for
water and land
Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water
availability

9. More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050
More calories & more meat, fish, milk
More food production –grain production
increase 70 to 100% by 2050
Water Use – Today and 2050
Today 2050
No Water
Productivity Gains
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Without Water Productivity Gains,
Source:
IWMI Crop ET doubles by 2050

10. Agriculture ET in 2000 and 2050
no water productivity gains
3215
Need to produce
2860
more food, but
minimize extra
water use –
Change is needed
1692
1505
312
164
South East Asia Central Asia Source:
Asia IWMI

11. Installed and potential hydropower
potential in the Himalayan region
Country Potential Installed %
(MW) (MW) contribution
to total
supply
Bhutan 23,760 1,465 100
China 272,000 NA 16.4
India 114,398 24,530 17.4
Nepal 42,630 658 92
Pakistan 46,000 6,608 33.4

12. Water Use – Today and 2050
Today
No Water
Productivity Gains
2050
CA Scenario
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading
rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can
further reduce water needs
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA by IWMI

13. Conclusion
• The demand is growing, yet
water is already scarce in the
region.
• There is scope for management
improvement.

14. With Climate Change,
Can Mountains Deliver Enough
Water?

15. Impacts of Climate Change
• Changes in glaciers and
snow
• More natural disasters
• Impact on water, food,
and energy
• Species migration &
biodiversity loss
• Changes in vegetation
cover
• Women and children at
front line

16. How Much Water Will be Available? www.icimod.org
1.2 Billion People Downstream

17. Elevation-temperature trend relationship
(Tibetan Plateau)
Liu and Chen, 2000

18. Impact of Climate Change -
Imja Glacier, Nepal
1956
photograph of Imja glacier
(Photo: Fritz Muller;
courtesy of Jack Ives)
2006
photograph of Imja glacier
(Photo: Giovanni
Kappenberger
courtesy of Alton C Byers)

20. 56 GLOF events in HKH region:
Bhutan 4, China 29, Nepal 14, Pakistan 9,
10 transboundary

21. Importance of melt water
Amu Darya River Source Walter Immerzeel

22. Black Carbon
• Brick kilns
• Cook-stoves
• Open burning
• Diesel vehicles
• Forest fires

23. Black Carbon Mitigation
Multiple Benefits
Nov to
April
Skies
Multiple Benefits of Mitigation:
•Less temperature rise
•Reduced glacial and snow melt
•Health benefits

24. Mountains and Water Supply
• Glaciers are retreating, with some
exceptions, like Karakorum.
• Flow depends on glacier, snow and
permafrost melt; but rain is often dominant.
• Dry areas and mountains areas close to
source are more vulnerable to glacier melt.
• Changes in timing and variability – a major
concern – floods and droughts

25. Number of events
0
5
10
15
20
30
35
40
25
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Source: EMDAT OFDA CRED Database
1992
1994
Flood events in the HKH
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004

26. Mountain Solutions for
Water

27. 1. Reduce vulnerabilities to
floods and droughts
• Increase monitoring and early
warning
• Increased attention to glacial
lakes
• Invest in water storage –
including conservation of natural
storage
• Work across borders to share
information and experience

28. 2. Find solutions in the water-
food-energy nexus
• Hydropower-food-livelihoods-environment:
increase synergies, deal with tradeoffs
• Clean energy to reduce black carbon and
glacier melt

29. 3. Improved Landscape
Management
• Watershed
management
• Address shifting
cultivation
• Local and
regional (US/DS)
payoffs

30. Community Management
Source: Robert Yoder, IWMI

31. 4. Value services provided by
mountain people and ecosystems
• Compensate for them
• Provide economic incentives to
communities
• Work across borders

32. 5. Reduce scientific
uncertainties
• About the cryosphere
• Indigenous and local knowledge
• Address data gaps
Himalayas: A
blank spot in
IPCC AR4

33. 6. Put mountains on the global
agenda
• Mountains are a global resource
for food, energy, biodiversity
• Global and regional activities
put mountains and mountain
people under pressure
• National, regional and global
attention must go to mountains

34. Thank you