Passing “peak water” • seven of the nine study watersheds have crossed a critical transition, and now exhibit decreasing dry season discharge. •La Balsa is undergoing a decline in dry season flow that probably began during the 1970s.
Vulnerability Summary Findings • Perceptions-households that noted climate change is taking place; detailed descriptions of effects – Llanganuco-98% +/- 2% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-94% +/-4% (95%) – Querococha-100% +/-2% (95%)
Vulnerability Summary Findings • Households preoccupied by recent climate changes taking place in region – Llanganuco-92% +/- 3% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-84% +/-6% (95%) – Querococha-91% +/-4% (95%)
Vulnerabilities-Increasing Weather Extremes• Quer-95%; Quilcay-91% – Respondents indicating that significant and often extreme shifts in temperature variation, precipitation patterns and seasonal change have been occurring with greater frequency and intensity
Vulnerabilities-Shifting Water Variability• Quer-93%; Quilcay-81% – Respondents indicating that over the course of the past 10 years (ranging from 3-10 years) water supplies have been decreasing during the dry season
Mulitiple Vectors of Vulnerability • Households reporting negative changes in their lives due to recent climate change – Llanganuco-72% +/- 6% (95%) – Quilcayhuanca-88% +/-5% (95%) – Querococha-94% +/-4% (95%) More Details Bury et al, 2011, Climatic Change Mark et al, 2010, Annals
Vulnerability and Glacial Hazards Risks • One of the Highest Concentrations of Glacier related Disasters in the World – Avalanches – Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS)
New Resource Struggles Quilcayhuanca• From Quantifying Changes in Declining Water Resources to H20 Evaluating Water Use and Struggles – Spatial Rescaling of Access and Institutions Local communities – Governance struggles (grazing lands, irrigation, potable water) – Scarcity struggles (declining water, productive land) Huaraz Potable water OSU LIDAR
Urban Potable Water Consumption by EPSChavin (Huaraz and Caraz) and Chavimochic (Trujillo)Huaraz: 3.2 million m3 in 1999 4.8 million m3 in 2010Caraz: 502,000 m3 in 1999 896,000 m3 in 2010Trujillo: 0% pre-1980s 70% of city’s potable water from Santa River in 2010
Hydroelectricity and Santa River Water UseCañón del Pato Management 1943-1972 Corporación del Santa 1972-1996 Electroperú 1996- Egenor/Duke EnergyCañón del Pato Megawatts pre-1958 0 1958 50 1967 100 1982 150 2001 263•Santa River water use at Cañón del Pato increased from 45 m3/sec to 79 m3/sec in 1999 •* 12 other Santa River watershed hydroelectric stations built since the 1950s
Coastal Irrigation along Lower Santa RiverYear Hectares Irrigated1958 7,5002004 144,000 (Chavimochic); 30,000 (Chinecas)
The Arid Coastal Shelf of Peru Regional • Hydraulic interdependence across the Andean escarpment – Only 2% of all the water Coastal Agriculture resources in the country And are available for the aridPopulations Are coast Extremely Dependent – Water is primarily OnGlacial Water available in rivers that are fed by glaciers in the dry season
The Chavimochic “Miracle”• 1985-2011-$1.2 billion• 144,000 ha improved land• Will deliver 4 m3/s to Trujillo• New hydropower• Phase III Financing Issues – Chinese will lend ~$300m of “key financing” – President issued “Supreme Decree” in 2008 to eliminate any barriers
Summary• Glacier surface area has dramatically decreased, upwards of 86% in individual glaciers, while volume changes have surpassed amounts predicted from empirical formula (by 2- 12 times).• Such enhanced surface deflation bespeaks a more profound volume loss than previously suspected.• Glacier-fed discharge has peaked glacierized streams• Increasing impacts to resource-dependent household livelihoods along multiple vectors of vulnerability
Political Economies of Contention • Glacier recession and climate change have either created or influenced widespread environmental and social change in the region • The political-economies of these tensions are not “future” concerns, they are already underway
http://bprc.osu.edu/glacierchangeRelated publicationsBaraer, M., J.M. McKenzie, B.G. Mark and S. Knox (2009). Characterizing contributions of glacier melt and ground water during the dry season in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Advances in Geosciences 22, 41-49.Bury, J., A. French, J. McKenzie, and B. Mark (2008). Adapting to Uncertain Futures: A Report on New Glacier Recession and Livelihood Vulnerability Research in the Peruvian Andes. Mountain Research and Development, 28(3/4): 332-333.Bury, J., B.G. Mark, J. McKenzie, A. French, M. Baraer, K.I. Huh, M. Zapata and J. Gomez (2010). Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Climatic Change, forthcoming.Fortner, S., B.G. Mark, J.M. McKenzie, J. Bury, A. Trierweiler, M. Baraer, and L. Munk (2010). Elevated stream trace and minor element concentrations in a tropical proglacial stream. Applied Geochemistry, forthcoming.Mark, B.G. and J.M. McKenzie (2007). Tracing increasing tropical Andean glacier melt with stable isotopes in water. Environmental Science and Technology 40 (20), 6955-6960.Mark, B.G., J. Bury, J.M. McKenzie, A. French and M. Baraer (2010). Climate Change and Tropical Andean Glacier Recession: Evaluating Hydrologic Changes and Livelihood Vulnerability in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, forthcoming.