This 3-day course is de¬signed for the professional program manager, system engineer, or project manager engaged in technically challenging projects where close technical collaboration between engineering and management is a must. To that end, this course addresses major topics that bridge the disciplines of project management and system engineering. Each of the selected topics is presented from the perspective of quantitative methods. Students first learn a theory or narrative, and then related methods or practices. Ideas are demonstrated that are immediately applicable to programs and projects. Attendees receive a copy of the instructor’s text, Quantitative Methods in Project Management.
Vendor or supplier risk management is an evolving discipline in operations management for manufacturers, retailers, financial services companies and government sector where the organization is highly dependent on vendors to achieve business objectives. Outsourcing, globalization, lean supply chain initiatives and supplier rationalization have contributed to a highly fragmented model, where control is often several steps removed from the corporation. While these models have allowed companies to reduce overall costs and expand quickly into new markets, they also expose the company to the risk of a vendor suddenly going bankrupt, closing operations or being acquired ,resulting in delivery disruptions, business continuity challenges leading to poor servicing to end user requirements.
In order to overcome outsourcing industry risk challenges & provide comprehensive vendor risk management solutions spanning industry sectors to enterprises, we’re pleased to launch our Vendor Risk Management services in addition to our existing bouquet of Risk advisory, Consulting, Training & Human Capital Services. Our services are offered through our multi location delivery centres in major metros with total presence in 11 Indian cities network.
Vendor or supplier risk management is an evolving discipline in operations management for manufacturers, retailers, financial services companies and government sector where the organization is highly dependent on vendors to achieve business objectives. Outsourcing, globalization, lean supply chain initiatives and supplier rationalization have contributed to a highly fragmented model, where control is often several steps removed from the corporation. While these models have allowed companies to reduce overall costs and expand quickly into new markets, they also expose the company to the risk of a vendor suddenly going bankrupt, closing operations or being acquired ,resulting in delivery disruptions, business continuity challenges leading to poor servicing to end user requirements.
In order to overcome outsourcing industry risk challenges & provide comprehensive vendor risk management solutions spanning industry sectors to enterprises, we’re pleased to launch our Vendor Risk Management services in addition to our existing bouquet of Risk advisory, Consulting, Training & Human Capital Services. Our services are offered through our multi location delivery centres in major metros with total presence in 11 Indian cities network.
The seemingly ambiguous title of this presentation – use of the terms maturity and innovation in concord – signifies the imperative of every organisation within the competitive domain. Where organisational maturity and innovativeness were traditionally considered antonymous, the assimilation of these two seemingly contradictory notions is fundamental to the assurance of long-term organisational prosperity. Organisations are required, now more than ever, to grow and mature their innovation capability – rending consistent innovative outputs. The presentation describes research conducted to consolidate the principles of innovation and identify the fundamental components that constitute organisational innovation capability. The process of developing an Innovation Capability Maturity Model is discussed. A brief description is provided of the basic components of the model, followed by the case studies that were conducted to evaluate the model. The presentation concludes with a summary of the findings and potential future research.
Vendor or supplier risk management is an evolving discipline in operations management for manufacturers, retailers, financial services companies and government sector where the organization is highly dependent on vendors to achieve business objectives. Outsourcing, globalization, lean supply chain initiatives and supplier rationalization have contributed to a highly fragmented model, where control is often several steps removed from the corporation. While these models have allowed companies to reduce overall costs and expand quickly into new markets, they also expose the company to the risk of a vendor suddenly going bankrupt, closing operations or being acquired ,resulting in delivery disruptions, business continuity challenges leading to poor servicing to end user requirements.
In order to overcome outsourcing industry risk challenges & provide comprehensive vendor risk management solutions spanning industry sectors to enterprises, we’re pleased to launch our Vendor Risk Management services in addition to our existing bouquet of Risk advisory, Consulting, Training & Human Capital Services.
The seemingly ambiguous title of this presentation – use of the terms maturity and innovation in concord – signifies the imperative of every organisation within the competitive domain. Where organisational maturity and innovativeness were traditionally considered antonymous, the assimilation of these two seemingly contradictory notions is fundamental to the assurance of long-term organisational prosperity. Organisations are required, now more than ever, to grow and mature their innovation capability – rending consistent innovative outputs. The presentation describes research conducted to consolidate the principles of innovation and identify the fundamental components that constitute organisational innovation capability. The process of developing an Innovation Capability Maturity Model is discussed. A brief description is provided of the basic components of the model, followed by the case studies that were conducted to evaluate the model. The presentation concludes with a summary of the findings and potential future research.
Vendor or supplier risk management is an evolving discipline in operations management for manufacturers, retailers, financial services companies and government sector where the organization is highly dependent on vendors to achieve business objectives. Outsourcing, globalization, lean supply chain initiatives and supplier rationalization have contributed to a highly fragmented model, where control is often several steps removed from the corporation. While these models have allowed companies to reduce overall costs and expand quickly into new markets, they also expose the company to the risk of a vendor suddenly going bankrupt, closing operations or being acquired ,resulting in delivery disruptions, business continuity challenges leading to poor servicing to end user requirements.
In order to overcome outsourcing industry risk challenges & provide comprehensive vendor risk management solutions spanning industry sectors to enterprises, we’re pleased to launch our Vendor Risk Management services in addition to our existing bouquet of Risk advisory, Consulting, Training & Human Capital Services.
This is a presentation I gave at the October 2007 Enterprise Architectures Conference. The presentation covers approache sto developing multi-year roadmaps for implementing business strategy.
Flevy.com - Pricing a Consulting ProjectDavid Tracy
This is a partial preview of the document found here:
https://flevy.com/browse/business-document/pricing-a-consulting-project-94
Description:
This presentation discusses the basic principles behind designing and pricing a management consulting type project.
Digital Signal Processing - Practical Techniques, Tips and Tricks Course SamplerJim Jenkins
The goal of this 3-day course is to Introduce, explain, and demonstrate powerful, proven techniques, tips and “tricks of the trade” that can dramatically improve accuracy, speed and efficiency in Digital Signal Processing (DSP) applications.
The concepts are first presented using many colorful, clear figures along with plain English explanations and real-world examples. They are next demonstrated using clearly written MATLAB programs (with graphics). This way the student sees the key equations “in action” which increases intuitive understanding and learning speed. These (free) working programs can also be later modified or adapted by the student for customized, site specific use.
Each student will receive extensive course slides, a CD with MATLAB m-files for demonstration and later adaptation, supplementary materials and references to aid in the understanding and application of these “techniques, tips, and tricks” and a copy of the instructor’s latest book “The Essential Guide to Digital Signal Processing”.
ELINT Interception and Analysis course samplerJim Jenkins
The course covers methods to intercept radar and other non-communication signals and a then how to analyze the signals to determine their functions and capabilities. Practical exercises illustrate the principles involved.
Space Radiation & It's Effects On Space Systems & Astronauts Technical Traini...Jim Jenkins
This course is designed for technical and management personnel who wish to gain an understanding of the fundamentals and the effects of space radiation on space systems and astronauts. The radiation environment imposes strict design requirements on many space systems and is the primary limitation to human exploration outside of the Earth's magnetosphere. The course specifically addresses issues of relevance and concern for participants who expect to plan, design, build, integrate, test, launch, operate or manage spacecraft and spacecraft subsystems for robotic or crewed missions. The primary goal is to assist attendees in attainment of their professional potential by providing them with a basic understanding of the interaction of radiation with non-biological and biological materials, the radiation environment, and the tools available to simulate and evaluate the effects of radiation on materials, circuits, and humans
Space Systems & Space Subsystems Fundamentals Technical Training Course SamplerJim Jenkins
This four-day course in space systems and space subsystems is for technical and management personnel who wish to gain an understanding of the important technical concepts in the development of space instrumentation, subsystems, and systems. The goal is to assist students to achieve their professional potential by endowing them with an understanding of the subsystems and supporting disciplines important to developing space instrumentation, space subsystems, and space systems. It designed for participants who expect to plan, design, build, integrate, test, launch, operate or manage subsystems, space systems, launch vehicles, spacecraft, payloads, or ground systems. The objective is to expose each participant to the fundamentals of each subsystem and their inter-relations, to not necessarily make each student a systems engineer, but to give aerospace engineers and managers a technically based space systems perspective. The fundamental concepts are introduced and illustrated by state-of-the-art examples. This course differs from the typical space systems course in that the technical aspects of each important subsystem are addressed.
AESA Airborne Radar Theory and Operations Technical Training Course SamplerJim Jenkins
The revolutionary active electronically scanned array (AESA) Radar provides huge gains in performance and all the front line fighters in the world from the Americans (F35, F22, F18, F15, F16) to the Europeans, Russians and Chinese already have one or soon will. This four day seminar, which took 10,000 man hours to produce, is a comprehensive treatment on the latest systems engineering technology required to design the modes for an AESA to capitalize on the systems inherent multi role, wide bandwidth, fast beam switching, and high power capabilities. Steve Jobs once said “You must provide the tools to let people become their best”, and this seminar will include two indispensable tools for the AESA engineer. 1) A newly written 400+ page electronic book with interactive calculations and simulations on the more complicated seminar subjects like STAP and Automatic Target Recognition. 2) A professionally designed spread sheet (with software) for designing, capturing and predicting the detection performance of the AESA modes including the challenging Alert-Confirm waveform.
This three day course is intended for practicing systems engineers who want to learn how to apply model-driven systems Successful systems engineering requires a broad understanding of the important principles of modern spacecraft communications. This three-day course covers both theory and practice, with emphasis on the important system engineering principles, tradeoffs, and rules of thumb. The latest technologies are covered. <p>
Communications Payload Design and Satellite System Architecture: Bent Pipe a...Jim Jenkins
This four-day course, ATI Courses.com's Communications Payload Design and Satellite System Architecture course , provides communications and satellite systems engineers and system architects with a comprehensive and accurate approach for the specification and detailed design of the communications payload and its integration into a satellite system. Both standard bent pipe repeaters and digital processors (on board and ground-based) are studied in depth, and optimized from the standpoint of maximizing throughput and coverage (single footprint and multi-beam). Applications in Fixed Satellite Service (C, X, Ku and Ka bands) and Mobile Satellite Service (L and S bands) are addressed as are the requirements of the associated ground segment for satellite control and the provision of services to end users.
Software Defined Radio Engineering course samplerJim Jenkins
This 3-day course is designed for digital signal processing engineers, RF system engineers, and managers who wish to enhance their understanding of this rapidly emerging technology. Most topics include carefully described design analysis, alternative approaches, performance analysis, and references to published research results. Many topics are illustrated by Matlab simulation demos. An extensive bibliography is included.
Satellite RF Communications and Onboard Processing Course SamplerJim Jenkins
Successful systems engineering requires a broad understanding of the important principles of modern satellite communications and onboard data processing. This course covers both theory and practice, with emphasis on the important system engineering principles, tradeoffs, and rules of thumb. The latest technologies are covered, including those needed for constellations of satellites.
This course is recommended for engineers and scientists interested in acquiring an understanding of satellite communications, command and telemetry, onboard computing, and tracking. Each participant will receive a complete set of notes.
Fundamentals of Passive and Active Sonar Technical Training Short Course SamplerJim Jenkins
This four-day course is designed for SONAR systems engineers, combat systems engineers, undersea warfare professionals, and managers who wish to enhance their understanding of passive and active SONAR or become familiar with the "big picture" if they work outside of either discipline. Each topic is presented by instructors with substantial experience at sea. Presentations are illustrated by worked numerical examples using simulated or experimental data describing actual undersea acoustic situations and geometries. Visualization of transmitted waveforms, target interactions, and detector responses is emphasized.
Space Environment & It's Effects On Space Systems course samplerJim Jenkins
This class on the space environment and its effects on space systems is for technical and management personnel who wish to gain an understanding of the important issues that must be addressed in the development of space instrumentation, subsystems, and systems. The goal is to assist students to achieve their professional potential by endowing them with an understanding of the fundamentals of the space environment and its effects. The class is designed for participants who expect to either, plan, design, build, integrate, test, launch, operate or manage payloads, subsystems, launch vehicles, spacecraft, or ground systems.
Each participant will receive a copy of the reference textbook: Pisacane, VL. The Space Environment and its Effects on Space Systems. AIAA Education Series, 2008.
Bioastronautics: Space Exploration and its Effects on the Human Body Course S...Jim Jenkins
This three-day course is intended for technical and managerial personnel who wish to be introduced to the effects of the space environment on humans. This course introduces bioastronautics from a fundamental perspective, assuming no prior knowledge of biology, physiology, or chemistry. The objective of the course is to provide the student with basic knowledge that will allow him or her to contribute more effectively to the human space exploration program. The human body, that through evolution is uniquely designed to function on the Earth, adapts to the space environment characterized by weightlessness and enhanced radiation. These alterations can impact the health and performance of astronauts, especially on return to the Earth.
Why You Should Replace Windows 11 with Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 for enhanced perfor...SOFTTECHHUB
The choice of an operating system plays a pivotal role in shaping our computing experience. For decades, Microsoft's Windows has dominated the market, offering a familiar and widely adopted platform for personal and professional use. However, as technological advancements continue to push the boundaries of innovation, alternative operating systems have emerged, challenging the status quo and offering users a fresh perspective on computing.
One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
Elevating Tactical DDD Patterns Through Object CalisthenicsDorra BARTAGUIZ
After immersing yourself in the blue book and its red counterpart, attending DDD-focused conferences, and applying tactical patterns, you're left with a crucial question: How do I ensure my design is effective? Tactical patterns within Domain-Driven Design (DDD) serve as guiding principles for creating clear and manageable domain models. However, achieving success with these patterns requires additional guidance. Interestingly, we've observed that a set of constraints initially designed for training purposes remarkably aligns with effective pattern implementation, offering a more ‘mechanical’ approach. Let's explore together how Object Calisthenics can elevate the design of your tactical DDD patterns, offering concrete help for those venturing into DDD for the first time!
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Unlocking Productivity: Leveraging the Potential of Copilot in Microsoft 365, a presentation by Christoforos Vlachos, Senior Solutions Manager – Modern Workplace, Uni Systems
Essentials of Automations: The Art of Triggers and Actions in FMESafe Software
In this second installment of our Essentials of Automations webinar series, we’ll explore the landscape of triggers and actions, guiding you through the nuances of authoring and adapting workspaces for seamless automations. Gain an understanding of the full spectrum of triggers and actions available in FME, empowering you to enhance your workspaces for efficient automation.
We’ll kick things off by showcasing the most commonly used event-based triggers, introducing you to various automation workflows like manual triggers, schedules, directory watchers, and more. Plus, see how these elements play out in real scenarios.
Whether you’re tweaking your current setup or building from the ground up, this session will arm you with the tools and insights needed to transform your FME usage into a powerhouse of productivity. Join us to discover effective strategies that simplify complex processes, enhancing your productivity and transforming your data management practices with FME. Let’s turn complexity into clarity and make your workspaces work wonders!
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
Generative AI Deep Dive: Advancing from Proof of Concept to ProductionAggregage
Join Maher Hanafi, VP of Engineering at Betterworks, in this new session where he'll share a practical framework to transform Gen AI prototypes into impactful products! He'll delve into the complexities of data collection and management, model selection and optimization, and ensuring security, scalability, and responsible use.
GraphSummit Singapore | The Art of the Possible with Graph - Q2 2024Neo4j
Neha Bajwa, Vice President of Product Marketing, Neo4j
Join us as we explore breakthrough innovations enabled by interconnected data and AI. Discover firsthand how organizations use relationships in data to uncover contextual insights and solve our most pressing challenges – from optimizing supply chains, detecting fraud, and improving customer experiences to accelerating drug discoveries.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Alt. GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using ...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
Threats to mobile devices are more prevalent and increasing in scope and complexity. Users of mobile devices desire to take full advantage of the features
available on those devices, but many of the features provide convenience and capability but sacrifice security. This best practices guide outlines steps the users can take to better protect personal devices and information.
ATI's Quantitative Methods course: Bridging Project Management and System Engineering Technical Training Short Course
1. Video Sampler From ATI Professional Development Short Course
Quantitative Methods: Bridging Project Management and System Engineering
Instructor:
John C. Goodpasture, PMP
ATI Course Schedule: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
ATI's Quantitative Methods: http://www.aticourses.com/Quantitative_Methods.htm
2. www.ATIcourses.com
Boost Your Skills 349 Berkshire Drive
Riva, Maryland 21140
with On-Site Courses Telephone 1-888-501-2100 / (410) 965-8805
Tailored to Your Needs
Fax (410) 956-5785
Email: ATI@ATIcourses.com
The Applied Technology Institute specializes in training programs for technical professionals. Our courses keep you
current in the state-of-the-art technology that is essential to keep your company on the cutting edge in today’s highly
competitive marketplace. Since 1984, ATI has earned the trust of training departments nationwide, and has presented
on-site training at the major Navy, Air Force and NASA centers, and for a large number of contractors. Our training
increases effectiveness and productivity. Learn from the proven best.
For a Free On-Site Quote Visit Us At: http://www.ATIcourses.com/free_onsite_quote.asp
For Our Current Public Course Schedule Go To: http://www.ATIcourses.com/schedule.htm
3. Why number ideas are important for project management
Cardinal Ordinal Deterministic Random
• Metric • Rank choice • Numerical • Risk analysis
calculation & priority reporting to • Calculations
• Metric • Rank stakeholders and estimates
reporting complexity • Population of random or
• Budgets, sche • Give statistics probabilistic
dules, resourc numerical quantities
es visualization
to position
and rank
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 2
4. Example: developer ranking of complexity
Histogram of developer opinion
Count [cardinal]
8 15
76th
30 Percentile
20
4 30 76% of rankings
15
are 4 or a 2
2 4 8
2 20
Rank [ordinal]
• Minimum 2
• Maximum 8
• Median 5
3
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
5. Comparison of deterministic and random numbers
• Deterministic
– Single point, one value
– Certain knowledge
2
– Arithmetic on number values
• Probabilistic, aka random
– Range of possible values, with probabilities
– Different values occur from one trial or instance to the next
– Arithmetic on {value, value probability} pairs
– Most useful for project management if distribution is stationary
[invariant] with time and position
2.1
1 1.5
2 2.5
4
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 4
6. Arithmetic operations with random numbers
• Arithmetic operations require operations on distribution functions
– Functional operations are often quite complex
– Simulation methods substitute for direct calculations
• As a practical matter, distributions are not often known
– Only observations of distribution outcomes are known
– Arithmetic operations applied to outcomes
– Approximations are made using simpler functions as substitutes
– Simulation methods derive estimators for actual—but unknown—
functions
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 5
7. Logical operations with random numbers
• UNION and INTERSECTION
– Logical representation of addition and multiplication
• Logic operations provide practical and useful approximations of
outcomes
Union or Summation
A or B
A+ B
Intersection or Multiplication
A and B
A* B
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 6
8. The Project Balance Sheet Tool
Quantitative Methods in Project Management
7
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
9. Recall the “Project Balance Sheet”
Project Value from Project Estimate from
the Top Down the Bottom Up
Risk
Investor Value
Expectation &
Resource
Commitment Deliverables
Cost
Schedule
Management investment Project employment
of investment
8
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
10. Map from business to project
1. Disaggregate sponsor needs: break down expectations, judgments, and
commitments into component parts
2. Categorize component parts into capacity, capability, resource needs, and risk
2. Re-integrate component parts to identify gaps and missing parts
Resource
Sponsor Capacity Capability Risk
Needs
Expectations Resources, sk Schedule
ills, commitm Feature X
ent
All the
Value features and
Cost
judgments functions of
widget A
Environment, Dollars and
Resource tools People, proce schedule
Commitment ss, tools
9
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
11. Plot confidence in cost [or schedule]
Confidence that the
$_amount will not be
exceeded
Likely Risk
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Not to exceed cost $450K $475K $550K >$550K
10
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
12. Plot timeline of project expense and business value
Business value
Project Business value
expenses from sales
$450K
$550K
11
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved
13. Sampling Metrics for Project Estimates
Quantitative Methods in Project Management
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 12
14. In the beginning, there is a population
• All the data values, events, or event
Population outcomes that share a common situation or
environment
• Space that holds all the values of the
Population space population
• May be deterministic or the outcome of a
Population values random process in/of the population
• Only those populations that bear upon
Population project results are important
importance • Because a population bears upon project
results, the population is important
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 13
15. Sampling risks
Accuracy Completeness
• Misunderstood • Excluded clusters or strata
exclusions, clusters, or strata • Unrepresentative data quality
• Unrepresentative sample data or deficiency
value outliers
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 14
16. Two risk assessments to be made
Margin of error Confidence interval
Estimated error around the
Interval that probably contains the
measurement, observation, or
true population parameter
calculation of statistics
Confidence expresses probability
Interval of possible values for the
that the true parameter is in the
statistic relative to the statistic
interval
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 15
17. Margin of error example
Margin of error % = 3 / 18 (x100) = 16.7%
18 Statistic
17 Sample Interval of statistic values: 3 20
½ Interval Margin of error % = +/- 1.5 / 18 (x100) = +/- 8.3%
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 16
18. Confidence interval
• For some probability—for example, 95%--the true population
statistic is within the interval
– 5% of the trials may not have intervals that contain the true population
– For a single trial, there is a 95% confidence that the true population
statistic is within the sample interval
For 95/100 trials
Sample interval contains the true population statistics
For 1 trial
5% chance the interval does not contain the true population statistics
18 Statistic
Sample Interval of statistic: 3
17 20
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 17
19. Confidence interval for proportional data
Interval = p +/- Z * [p * (1 - p) / N]
Where
Z is range value of standard Normal distribution
Z is normalized to the standard deviation
Z = 1 means 1 σ from the mean
Z range
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 18
20. Margin of error, proportional data
+/- Margin of Error = ½ Interval width / p
Where ½ Interval width = +/- Z * [p * (1 - p) / N]
Z = 1.96
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 19
21. Hypothesis Testing
Quantitative Methods in Project Management
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 20
22. What if …. ?
Design parameter change
– You change a system design parameter with an expectation that there
will be a difference in performance.
– Comparing the ‘before’ to the ‘after’, is the difference a matter of
chance, or has there been a systemic change in performance?
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 21
23. Distributions of X and Y
Sample X
Sample Y
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 22
24. • We don’t know the distributions of sample X and sample Y (usually)
– Not needed for hypothesis test
– Distributions of sample average are known approximately
Sample average distribution
Sample X
Sample Y
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 23
25. • H0 likely TRUE for difference values < 0.219
• Otherwise, likely FALSE
• With confidence of 95%
H0 distribution & confidence curve
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26. Risk mitigation in time and resource schedules
Quantitative Methods in Project Management
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 25
27. Any issues?
Should you be equally confident of making the milestone?
Tandem path primitive
Parallel path primitive
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 26
28. Interpreting the Confidence “S” Curve
A. 68% confidence: value between -1 to +1
B. 16% confidence: value > 1
C. 84% confidence: value < 1
B
1
0.84
0.75
0.5 A
0.25
0.16
C
0
-3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
C A B
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 27
29. Schedule example for tandem tasks
Schedule network primitive Task duration distribution, D
Task Probability distribution
0.45
0.4
Task A Task B 0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Duration range 1 - 6
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 28
31. Confidence for “schedule-at-mode”
Date 1/1 1/21
2/12
3/15
3/25
1.2 Low confidence in 3/25
1
p/v
0.8
Calculate Confidence 0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 0.5 0
1-Apr
2-Apr
4-Apr
23-Mar
24-Mar
25-Mar
26-Mar
27-Mar
28-Mar
29-Mar
30-Mar
3-Apr
5-Apr
31-Mar
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 30
32. Parallel path primitive
What is the schedule
confidence at the milestone?
Distribution of tasks
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
Confidence: 80% at 4
1.2
0.15
0.1 1
0.05 0.8
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 31
33. “Critical Chain” buffers uncertainty
1 2
10 days 11 days 12 days Buffer Project Buffer
Path buffer mitigates
15 days 10 days
“shift right” at the
milestone of joining
path
Task on the critical path
Task with risky duration, not on critical path
Critical chain is a concept developed in the book
Critical Chain (Goldratt, 1997)
Copyright 2011 Square Peg Consulting, LLC, All Rights Reserved 32
34. To learn more please attend ATI course
Quantitative Methods: Bridging Project Management and System Engineering
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