1. The document discusses Trump's South Asian policy, which included sending additional forces to Afghanistan, criticizing Pakistan for not doing enough against terrorism, and asking India to play a more active role. 2. It notes that this policy will likely fuel tensions between regional powers like Pakistan and India and won't be able to overcome the jihadist insurgency. 3. The document also covers US-China conflicts over issues like the South China Sea and currency wars, as well as the trend toward a multipolar global order with the rise of powers like China and Russia.

1. TRUMP’S SOUTH
ASIAN POLICY

2. Introduction
◦ The current Afghan state built by the West remains ineffective in countering the growing
Jihadist insurgency dominated by the Taliban and the ISIS.
◦ At first, Trump announced his policy towards South Asian region which included:
◦ Sending additional forces to Afghanistan;
◦ Dispraising Pakistan for not doing enough in the war against terrorism;
◦ Asking India to play a more active role in Asian politics.
◦ This policy will not be able to overcome Jihadist insurgency or make America great again
because it will fuel a tug of war in the regional states (Pakistan vs. India).
◦ Despite the utmost efforts of regional and global powers through various channels and modes,
peace in Kabul is yet to be restored.
◦ The political vacuum created by the politico-military stunt of USSR was filled by the Taliban
regime and Mullah Omar.

3. Introduction
◦ However, the events of 9/11 followed by the removal of Taliban regime in Afghanistan by the
West paved the way for the installation of a coalitionist action figure regime which sidelined the
dominant Pashtuns.
◦ If a community comprising 34% of the total populous is sidelined, how can one hope to achieve
politico-economic stability in the region?
◦ Peace can not be restored until and unless all the ethnic communities residing in Afghanistan
are given their sound and doable representation in the matters of the state.

4. Key Points of the Policy
1. Time-based approach shifted to condition-based approach; conditions on the ground will
dictate what to do next instead of timetables.
2. The policy will include all strategic elements of American power – diplomatic, militaristic and
economic.
3. The US will no longer be silent on terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan that pose a threat to the
region and beyond.
4. Development of strategic partnership with India.
5. Expansion of the authority of US armed forces to target terrorists and criminal networks in
Afghanistan.

5. Objectives of the US
1. Strengthening of Kabul regime in order to thwart the growing jihadist insurgency dominated
by Taliban and factions of IS. BBC reports that around 70% of Afghanistan is under threat by
the Taliban.
2. Geo-strategic shift to India to counter the growing Chinese influence around the globe.
3. Countering Russian and Chinese influence in Afghanistan along with maintaining balance of
power dichotomy across the entire region.

6. Will it change anything?
◦ If more than 100,000 NATO troops failed to annihilate Afghan Taliban way back during the Bush
era, how can the addition of 5000 troops have a substantial impact against the Taliban?
◦ Furthermore, the autonomy granted to the already frustrated military operating in Afghanistan
for the last 16 years would neither have any substantial impacts on landscape nor secure the
state from globalization facilitated counter ideologies of China or Russia.
◦ Rather, it will create a bigger conflict between the regional powers and their unlike interests in
the region.

7. Trump and Regional Powers
◦ Pakistan
◦ Trump accused Pakistan of providing safe havens to Taliban and Haqqani leadership.
◦ Trump dispraised Pakistan for not doing enough in the War on Terror.
◦ Trump warned Pakistan of dire consequences if it doesn’t take sniff action against non-state actors operating on
its soil.
◦ However, after the successful completion of Zarb-e-Azb and other military operations, about 95% of FATA is
under the writ of the state.
◦ The sad truth may be that US is trying to scapegoat Pakistan for its failures in the War on Terror.
◦ In his BBC interview, Sirajuddin Haqqani mentioned that they have no sanctuaries on Pakistani soil.
◦ India
◦ India has acquired a center stage alongside Pakistan and Afghanistan in South Asia.
◦ The space provided by US to India in Afghanistan is one of the major reasons of antagonized US-Pakistan ties.
◦ India’s desire to become the supreme leader in the region will result Pakistan to a number of challenges.

8. Implications for Pakistan
1. Security Issues
1. Pakistan will have to counter ambitious India from East as well as the West.
2. Indian intelligence acting in Afghanistan with spillover to Balochistan.
2. Diplomatic Encirclement
1. India already has diplomatic ties to Iran because of Chabahar port.
2. Better influence of India in Afghanistan will resultantly leave Pakistan with only one ally in the North.
3. Economic Issues
1. Pakistan’s domestic industry will suffer as their products won’t be able to compete with those of India.
2. Adversely affect Pakistan’s trade with Afghanistan.
4. Asymmetric Warfare
1. India’s policy of destabilization of Balochistan and FATA.
2. Indian scholars think that an active military involvement in Afghanistan will divert the battleground away from
Kashmir towards the border of Pakistan.

9. Conclusion
◦ The resurgence of Taliban and the rise of ISIS has forced US to play a hand that it was dealt
which was a bad hand.
◦ The call for military action and engagement by US will further destabilize the region.
◦ Furthermore, it will create even bigger clashes on already competing regional powers.

10. US-CHINA CONFLICTS

11. US Encirclement of China
◦ US is the sole superpower of the of the world but other world powers are not lagging behind in their endeavor to become
the next superpowers of the world.
◦ One of the fasting growing powers through economy is China which US is not fond of.
◦ In order to create deterrence for China and contain its power, US is on a continuous mission to have either good relations
or military presence in almost all those countries that border China or are near China.
◦ A Chinese general once commented, “China has not provoked US interests, so what are you doing running to Asia to
encircle China?”
◦ Countries on the list of US to encircle China are:
◦ Japan
◦ Vietnam
◦ India
◦ Pakistan
◦ Philippines
◦ North Korea
◦ With these countries US is either having a defense treaty, or economic ties and some are even part of NATO.

12. South China Sea
◦ Chinese Perspective
◦ Territorial waters belong to China according to its domestic law.
◦ Any country that wants to use the waters for navigation or trade must have the consent of China.
◦ China has tensions with Philippines and Vietnam regarding this issue.
◦ American Perspective
◦ America opposes China but only indirectly.
◦ Hilary Clinton said, “US is not taking sides in Manila-Beijing standoff yet it wants free navigation be
ensured.”
◦ This is because US economy is dependent of China and it can not confront China on this issue head on.
◦ However, the gestures of US clearly depict that US is not going to tolerate China in the South China Sea
such as the joint US-Vietnam combined navy exercises in the sea and the flights of F-16.

13. Currency War
◦ US and China are arch rivals in economy but are also greatly dependent on each other.
◦ Though they are having economic relations but both want to outweigh the other in the
economic race.
◦ Games by China
◦ By keeping its currency fixed at a lower level, is increasing its exports to the international markets and
hence decreasing trade of US comparatively.
◦ By influencing the flow of US currency in the international markets, elevating the value of dollar against
Yuan.
◦ It can be predicted that China is trying to replace Dollar as the international currency by Yuan which is at
third at this point. The first being Dollar and the second being Euro.
◦ China is smart that the US can’t directly counter any of this as the US economy is heavily dependent on
Chinese economy so any damage to China, means damage to US.

14. Mutual Assured Economic Destruction (MAED)
◦ Short of a nuclear exchange, the greatest damage from any conflict with China is likely to come
in the form of economy for the US.
◦ The two economies are greatly dependent on each other and this will result in MAED as they
have already started a trade war.
◦ At the moment, the advantage rests with the US but even the winner in such a contest will wish
it had been avoided.
◦ It is possible the escalation of a military clash but it is much harder to limit the economic
consequences of MAED.

15. RISING
MULTIPOLARITY

16. Meltdown of the Global Power
◦ Global financial crunch of 2008 adversely affected US.
◦ All developed economies would shrink by 25%. (World Economic Outlook)
◦ 9 out of 15 mega banks of US closed.
◦ Unemployment rate jumped from 5% to 10%.
◦ Financial shutdown of US for 13 days.
◦ Notion of disintegration of Euro Zone.
◦ USA and extremely expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

17. Rising Powers
1. Economic Rise of China
◦ Trade between US and China is more than $500 billion.
◦ Economy of China has the highest GDP growth of 9%.
◦ China has secured 2000 acres of land on the disputed South China Sea.
◦ China’s debt on US is $3 trillion.
2. Resurgence of Russia
◦ Intervention of Georgia in 2008 and barring its entry into EU.
◦ Annexation of Crimea.
◦ Energy deal with China worth $400 billion.
◦ Successful interventions in Syria.
◦ Largest exporter of gas and second largest of military equipment.

18. Critical Evaluation
◦ China is said to lead the parade of the new powers followed by India and Brazil.
◦ In 2010, assistant secretary of state for public affairs P. J. Crowley called India a ‘great and emerging global power’.
President Obama referred to India as ‘a rising power and a responsible global power.’
◦ However, power is defined as the ability to one party to influence another to do what it wants even if the other
party is not in favor of that decision. (definition from Political Science)
◦ If economy was the only factor contributing to power, then EU and Japan would also be great powers of the world.
However, their international presence in world affairs is little.
◦ Although the unrivaled supremacy of US is now in question, it still remains the world power due to these factors:
◦ Greatest influence on international organizations like UNO, IMF and WB.
◦ Guardian of the seas since 1946.
◦ Strongest military and navy in the world. 700 military bases across the globe, Russia is second with only 33 bases.
◦ Largest consumer and producer of oil.
◦ Largest economy of more than $17 trillion.
◦ Global currency is still dollar.

19. RESURGING RUSSIA

20. Introduction
◦ USA enjoyed unipolarity after the end of the Cold War but since then, Russia has been resurging
under the leadership of Vladimir Putin.
◦ Russia has emerged from its days of bankruptcy and rebuilt itself as a global player in the
international arena of geo-politics.
◦ Some of the politics in the world that Russia has been involved in since the Cold War:
◦ The Syrian Conflict.
◦ Military intervention of Georgia (2008).
◦ The annexation of Crimea.
◦ Russia has resurged in many different strategic ways:
◦ Diplomatic resurgence
◦ Military resurgence
◦ Energy resurgence
◦ Regional resurgence
◦ Geostrategic resurgence
◦ Rising role in International Politics

21. Resurging Russia
1. Diplomatic Resurgence
◦ Russia’s $400 billion energy deal with China and its opening of markets to China instead of the west.
◦ Russia played a key role in the P5+1 deal with Iran by ensuring the security of Iran from the West and also
pushing Iran towards denuclearization.
◦ Russia has successfully convinced Germany (the biggest economy of Europe) not to go for a hard stance against
Russia because 70% of its trade is dependent on Russia.
◦ Russian stance on the use of Sarin gas by the militants was proved to the world using video evidence.
◦ Russia lifted the ban of ammunition sales from Pakistan after India showed interest towards the West.
◦ Military Resurgence
◦ Second biggest military power in size and technology.
◦ 29$ of the world’s weapons export is done by Russia, seconded only to US.
◦ Georgia military intervention by Russia to stop it from joining EU.
◦ Russian naval base in Syria posed a threat to any attack by US or its allies.
◦ The military intervention in Syria is a big setback for US and its allies.
◦ Russian-Ukranian conflict and the annexation of Crimea.

22. Resurging Russia
3. Regional Resurgence
◦ Russia is confronting the Euro-American nexus on every platform e.g. CSTO vs. EU, SCO vs. NATO, and so
on.
◦ Militarily intervened in Georgia.
◦ Diplomatically intervened in Ukraine.
4. Geo-strategic Resurgence
◦ A number of countries are on the rise due to their alliances and re-alliances with major world players.
◦ Russia is trying to remain a key geo-strategic player in the Central Asia and Eurasia.
◦ The annexation of Crimea, the control of pipelines and its struggle to enhance its presence in Arabian Sea
through Pakistan is all but to become a potential power.
◦ Alliances also with China, Iran and Syria.

23. Critical Evaluation
◦ The collapse of the Soviet Union left Russia struggling to pull itself back together politically and
economically.
◦ Under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, Russia was able to resurge successfully in the
dimensions of politics, economics, and military.
◦ This was largely facilitated by rising Russian oil revenues.
◦ Russia is seeking to increase its international profile with strategic ties with almost all major
nations in the East and Central Asia.
◦ This Russian mission to regain influence is one challenge that the West, particularly US, can not
afford to ignore.

24. THE AFGHAN PEACE
PROCESS

25. Introduction
◦ Kabul is becoming the center stage for geo-strategic rivalry of foreign powers once more after
the last Afghan War.
◦ There is involvement of regional powers, foreign powers, the Afghan Taliban and ISIS.
◦ The events of 9/11 transformed international politics as terrorism was unanimously identified as
a major threat to humanity.
◦ US intervened in Afghanistan as it was declared the sanctuary of terrorists and managed to
topple the terrorist sympathetic regime of Taliban.

26. Change in Russian Foreign Policy
◦ After the stunt Russia pulled after the Afghan War, it distanced itself from Afghanistan. Russia
actually support US politics after the global catastrophe of 9/11.
◦ The recent meeting in Moscow to discuss Afghan security is an example of how Russia may be
interested again in the land which it was chased out of several decades ago.
◦ The interests of Russia include:
◦ Saving itself from security threats such as ISIS.
◦ Peace and stability of the region.

27. Interests of India
◦ Realistically, India has played a huge role in the reconstruction of Kabul after the removal of the
Taliban regime by US.
◦ India developed full-fledged diplomatic ties with coalitionist regime founded by West and also
lent $2 billion for rehabilitation and reconstruction after the war making it the largest
contributor in the region.
◦ Interests of India:
◦ Encircling Pakistan.
◦ Shifting battleground from Kashmir towards Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
◦ Launching pad for intelligence in Balochistan.

28. Iran – The Enemy of my Enemy
◦ After US invaded Iraq and toppled the Saddam regime, Iran became the dominant power in the
region.
◦ Although Iran has been anti-Taliban and ideological differences exist, the opportunity in crisis
lies that Iran recognizes the Afghan Taliban as a potential ally against the rising ISIS in its
backyard.
◦ It will also ensure the peace and stability of the region, even if there exist some ideological
differences.

29. The Interests of China
◦ China is embarked, once again, on the roadmap of reawakening the century old Silk Road by
interlinking various regions of the contemporary globalized international arena.
◦ Due to the geographical contiguity with Afghanistan, a major chunk of Chinese interest lies in
the peace and stability of the region especially in Kabul and Islamabad.
◦ This will ensure free flow of trade, economics and prosperity for China and the connected
countries.
◦ Furthermore, the rise of extremism and ISIS can spill into China which can become a hurdle for
China in the long run.

30. Pakistan – The Need for Peace
◦ Pakistan has always been a major player in regional politics from the Afghan War to the War on Terror
to the economic activity of China.
◦ The wars fought in Afghanistan has affected Pakistani socio-politically and economically. War on
Terror has cost Pakistan more than $100 billion alongside many civil-military casualties.
◦ Pakistan considers Afghanistan immensely important due to security reasons.
◦ The prime interest of Pakistan is to restore peace in Afghanistan as it will also ensure peace in
Pakistan.
◦ Furthermore, Pakistan can’t become a transit corridor (CPEC) without peace in Afghanistan.
◦ Moreover, Islamabad as a responsible member of the international community, should play an
important role in bringing all the major stakeholders on the table in order to restore durable peace in
Afghanistan characterized with balanced power share mechanisms dubbed as the Afghan led Afghan
owned peace process.

31. Way Forward
◦ All regional and foreign powers must be taken on board before initiating talks with Taliban.
◦ Furthermore, there is a need to counter ISIS and make a wise decision regarding Afghanistan.

32. US WITHDRAWAL
FROM AFGHANISTAN

33. Introduction
◦ US has finally decided to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan leaving behind a weak Afghan
government and a newly structured Afghan army.
◦ Various schools of thoughts exists
◦ Some consider that US has achieved its goals by defeated Al-Qaeda and killing Osama-bin-Laden.
◦ Some consider that War on Terror is a war on all terrorists and US still needs to curb terrorism.
◦ US wants to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan but has to increase it due to the worsening
situation in the country.
◦ This is because there is no way a democratic setup in Afghanistan flourishes until peaceful dialogue is
initiated with the Taliban.
◦ US wants to mark its success in Afghanistan by two things: killing of Osama-bin-Laden and
rehabilitating Afghanistan by setting up a stable government over there.
◦ The peace talks with Taliban is a desperate attempt by US to ensure the stability of the next Afghan
government.

34. Establishing an Efficient Government
◦ US has to establish a government which is efficient and democratic in form.
◦ However, it is not as easy because there are quite a number of stakeholders involved in the
government formation process:
◦ Pashtuns
◦ Uzbeks
◦ Tajiks
◦ Aimaqs
◦ Hazaras
◦ Balochs
◦ Taliban
◦ Northern Alliance

35. Establishing an Efficient Government
◦ Afghanistan is a country with a population of more than 30 million and it requires due
representation.
◦ Though the politics is dominated by Pashtuns greatly, other ethnicities hold some stake in the
government as well.
◦ The most important factor is the Taliban organization without which no government can exist.
◦ The decade long war against them has proved that and US as well as Karzai administration
realized that.
◦ There will two forms of government after US withdrawal:
◦ No Taliban representation leading to civil war.
◦ Taliban representation.

36. Establishing an Efficient Government
◦ Impacts on Pakistan
◦ Civil war in Afghanistan will spill over in Pakistan. Taliban and refugees are bound to have an impact if
they are not given due representation.
◦ The second option will have less impacts as compared to the first one but it will encourage local militants
to take up arms as that results in getting their demands met.
◦ TTP has been operating in Pakistan and has caused much damage. After the US withdrawal, Pakistan
would want to know the destiny of TTP and can do something about it.

37. The Afghan National Army
◦ Afghanistan had no national army after the Soviet trained army had perished.
◦ A new national army was initiated called the Afghan National Army (ANA).
◦ Currently, it has more than 200,000 troops.
◦ Afghan former president Karzai does not want a strong Afghan army as he believes it will only increase the expenditure and
further put Afghanistan on the lifeline of foreign aid.
◦ Afghanistan has overall 5 jet fighters and approximately 100 operational tanks.
◦ The former president wanted to purchase weapons from India which was opposed by the West.
◦ After the withdrawal, Afghan army wants to use the weapons and ammunition left behind US and NATO forces but US does
not agree with that either.
◦ All these issues makes the job of the army very hard and it would not be able to bring peace in the region on its own.
◦ Regional Perspectives
◦ US wants a strong Afghan army for peace and stability in the region.
◦ India wants a strong Afghan army as part of its ‘Sandwich Pakistan’ policy.
◦ Pakistan wants a weak Afghan army as Afghanistan has repeatedly claimed that Durand Line is false and parts of it belong to Afghanistan.

38. Implications on Pakistan
◦ Economic Effects
◦ Peace can help Pakistan become a transit route
◦ Political effects
◦ US needs a scapegoat for its withdrawal from Afghanistan which it wants to be Pakistan.
◦ Refugee spillover if civil war occurs

39. Challenges faced by Afghanistan
◦ Economic challenges
◦ Afghanistan running on aid
◦ Can’t sustain unless West keeps providing aid
◦ Military challenges
◦ Weak afghan army
◦ Cant stop civil war
◦ Cant protect against ISIS
◦ Political challenges
◦ Taliban wants a big chunk of government and if they don’t get it, situation will never become political –
only remain military.

40. MILLENNIUM
DEVELOPMENTAL
GOALS

41. The Eight Goals
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
2. Achieve universal primary education
3. Promote gender equality and empower women
4. Reduce child mortality
5. Improve maternal health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
7. Ensure environmental sustainability
8. Develop a global partnership for development

42. MDGs
1. MDG-1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
◦ The MDG target of reducing by half the proportion of people living in extreme poverty was achieved in 2010, well ahead of the 2015 deadline.
◦ Since 1990, more than 1 billion people have been lifted out of extreme poverty.
◦ The proportion of undernourished people in the developing regions has fallen by almost half.
◦ One in seven children worldwide are underweight, down from one in four in 1990.
◦ Despite progress, almost half of the world’s employed people work in vulnerable conditions.
◦ By the end of 2014, conflicts had forced almost 60 million people to abandon their homes.
2. MDG-2: Achieve universal primary education
◦ The global number of out-of-school children has fallen considerably since 1990, although the pace of improvement has been insufficient to achieve
universal primary enrolment by 2015. Currently, 57 million children of primary school age are estimated to be out of school, down from 100 million in
2000. Of these, 33 million are in sub-Saharan Africa, and more than half (55 percent) are girls.
◦ The primary school net enrolment rate in the developing regions has reached an estimated 91 percent in 2015, up from 83 percent in 2000.
◦ The number of out-of-school children of primary school age worldwide has fallen by almost half, to an estimated 57 million in 2015, from 100 million in
2000.
◦ Between 1990 and 2012, the number of children enrolled in primary school in sub-Saharan Africa more than doubled, from 62 to 149 million.
◦ In the developing regions, children in the poorest households are four times as likely to be out of school as those in the richest households.
◦ The literacy rate among youth aged 15 to 24 has increased globally from 83 percent to 91 percent between 1990 and 2015.

43. MDGs
3. MDG-3: Promote gender equality and empower women
◦ Much progress has been made towards women’s and girls’ equality in education, employment and political representation, but many gaps remain.
◦ Since 1995, when the Beijing Platform for Action on women’s empowerment was adopted, the global average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled,
growing from 11 per cent in 1995 to 22 percent in January 2015. Women in parliament have gained ground in nearly 90 percent of the 174 countries for which data are
available for 1995–2015.
◦ About two thirds of countries in developing regions have achieved gender parity in primary education.
◦ Globally, about three quarters of working-age men participate in the labour force, compared to
half of working-age women.
◦ Today, women make up 41 percent of paid workers outside of agriculture, an increase from 35 percent in 1990.
◦ The average proportion of women in parliament has nearly doubled over the past 20 years, but still only one in five members is female.
4. MDG-4: Reduce child mortality
◦ Substantial progress in reducing child mortality has been made, but more children can be saved from death due to preventable causes.
◦ Focusing on newborns and reducing socioeconomic disparities are critical to further accelerate progress in child survival.
◦ The global under-five mortality rate has declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 live births between 1990 and 2015.
◦ The rate of reduction in under five mortality has more than tripled globally since the early 1990s.
◦ Measles vaccination helped prevent nearly 15.6 million deaths between 2000 and 2013.
◦ About 84 percent of children worldwide received at least one dose of measles-containing vaccine in 2013.
◦ Every day in 2015, 16,000 children under five continue to die, mostly from preventable causes. Child survival must remain the focus of the post-2015 development
agenda.

44. MDGs
5. MDG-5: Improve maternal health
◦ Maternal survival has significantly improved since the adoption of the MDGs.
◦ Southern Asia and Eastern Asia have made the greatest progress in reducing maternal mortality. Despite this progress, every day hundreds of women die during
pregnancy or from childbirth-related complications.
◦ Since 1990, the maternal mortality ratio has been cut nearly in half, and most of the reduction has occurred since 2000.
◦ More than 71 percent of births were assisted by skilled health personnel globally in 2014, an increase from 59 percent in 1990.
◦ In the developing regions, only 56 percent of births in rural areas are attended by skilled health personnel, compared with 87 percent in urban areas.
◦ Only half of pregnant women in developing regions receive the recommended minimum of four antenatal care visits.
◦ Just 51 percent of countries have data on maternal cause of death.
6. MDG-6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
◦ The number of people newly infected with HIV continues to decline in many regions of the world.
◦ Access to antiretroviral therapy has increased at a remarkable pace, averting millions of deaths. Unfortunately knowledge of HIV and HIV prevention remains low
among young people.
◦ Similarly, increased global attention to the devastating effects of malaria has produced significant results, and the burden of tuberculosis has declined, thanks to
effective prevention, diagnosis and treatment.
◦ New HIV infections fell by approximately 40 percent between 2000 and 2013, from an estimated 3.5 million cases to 2.1 million.
◦ By June 2014, 13.6 million people living with HIV were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) globally; ART averted 7.6 million deaths from AIDS between 1995 and 2013.
◦ Over 6.2 million malaria deaths have been averted between 2000 and 2015, primarily of children under five years of age in sub-Saharan Africa.
◦ Between 2000 and 2013, tuberculosis prevention, diagnosis and treatment saved 37 million lives.

45. MDGs
7. MDG-7: Ensure environmental sustainability
◦ Deforestation has slowed, but global greenhouse gas emissions continue their upward trend.
◦ In recent years, the net loss of forest area has slowed, due to both a slight decrease in deforestation and an increase in afforestation. Deforestation, forest degradation and poor forest
management release carbon into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.
◦ A continual rise in greenhouse gas emissions is projected to further warm the planet and cause long-lasting changes in the climate system, threatening severe and irreversible
consequences for people and ecosystems.
◦ Ozone-depleting substances have been virtually eliminated, and the ozone layer is expected to recover by the middle of this century.
◦ Global emissions of carbon dioxide have increased by over 50 percent since 1990.
◦ In 2015, 91 percent of the global population uses an improved drinking water source, up from 76 percent in 1990.
◦ Since 1990, 2.1 billion people have gained access to improved sanitation, and the proportion of people practising open defecation globally has fallen almost by half.
◦ The proportion of the urban population living in slums in the developing regions fell from 39.4 percent to 29.7 percent between 2000 and 2014.
8. MDG-8: Develop a global partnership for development
◦ Official development assistance to least developed countries increased significantly over the MDG period.
◦ Official development assistance has plateaued in recent years, after increasing significantly in the first decade of the new millennium. Imports from developing countries, especially from
least developed countries, increasingly receive preferential treatment from developed countries.
◦ Greater funding and innovation are crucial to the implementation of the post-2015 development agenda.
◦ Official development assistance from developed countries increased by 66 percent in real terms between 2000 and 2014.
◦ In 2014, 79 percent of imports from developing to developed countries were admitted duty free.
◦ The proportion of external debt service to export revenue in developing countries fell from 12 percent in 2000 to 3 percent in 2013.
◦ As of 2015, 95 percent of the world’s population is covered by a mobile-cellular signal.
◦ Only one third of the population in the developing regions use the Internet, compared to 82 percent in the developed regions.

46. MIDDLE EAST
QUAGMIRE

47. Background
◦ US-led intervention in Iraq started a domino effect where the geo-strategic rivalries in the
Middle East are being exploited based on ethnic, cultural and sectarian faults.
◦ Keeping in view of the rivalry between Iran and KSA, the collective future of the Arab world
looks gauzy.
◦ History, however, hasn’t changed much. The Iran-KSA rivalry can be traced back to the historic
Persian-Arab rivalry during the pre-modern and Middle Ages.
◦ The on-going cold war between Iran and KSA is by no means different from the historic geo-
strategic rivalry for dominancy, hegemony and superiority across the Islamic world.

48. Reasons for Complex Situation
1. Sykes-Picot Agreement
1. Between England and France with the joining of Russia.
2. To divide their influence in the region of Asia and Ottoman Empire after World War I.
3. The agreement has not taken into account ethnic, sectarian, linguistic, cultural lines which is one of the
factors of the recent turmoil in the region.
2. Iran-Iraq War
1. Bitter eight years war between Iraq and Iran has resulted in nothing but animosity between the Persians
and the Arabs.
2. Furthermore, the ongoing geo-strategic rivalry between KSA and Iran along the region reminds none
other than acrid animosity on the basis of ethnicity and divergent religious discourses.

49. Reasons for Complex Situation
3. Arab Awakening
1. Demonstrations after a fruit vendor set himself on fire in Tunisia laid the foundations of the Arab uprising.
2. Arab awakening was a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, rebellions rejecting secularism, socialism,
pan-Arabism, nationalistic and military regimes.
3. It later led towards the toppling of various regimes and monarchs beside promotion of democratic tendencies
in Arabian society.
◦ The systematic state sponsored denial of basic human rights and economic opportunities led to this uprising.
4. The Toppling of Saddam’s Regime
◦ During the pre-war era, Iran and Iraq both counter balanced each other across the hierarchy of the region
avoiding dominancy or ascendency of one over the other.
◦ However, the toppling of Saddam’s regime changed the dimensions and power chord of the region which led to
Iran gaining influence and even worse, the vacuum was filled by other regional interested parties.

50. Reasons for Complex Situation
5. The Rise of ISIL
◦ The political vacuum created by toppling Saddam’s regime coupled with the chaos in Libya and Syria,
created an environment fertile for growth of fundamentalist groups.
◦ Despite massive gains against ISIL, the regional and global powers have not been able to root out the
ideological phenomenon and some threads of the group.
6. Power Struggle between KSA and Iran

51. Foreign Interests in the Region
◦ US Interests
◦ Protection of its allies
◦ Watchdog over hydrocarbon beds
◦ Russian Interests
◦ To gain geo-political significance in the area.
◦ To become a major player in international politics again.
◦ Cold War 2.0
◦ The cold war mentality still exists in the affairs of the Middle East between the US and Russia.
◦ The Syrian episode characterized this perfectly as Russia support Assad whereas the US supported the
rebels.
◦ Furthermore, US supports KSA in the region with its containment policy of Iran using GCC.
◦ Whereas Russia has a soft spot for Iran including the ground intervention of Damascus, Syria.

52. IRAN VS. KSA

53. Power Struggle between KSA and Iran
1. Turmoil in Syria
◦ The GCC bloc including KSA challenges Bashar’s regime using insurgency.
◦ Furthermore, Iran and Russia support Bashar’s regime.
◦ This has resulted in asymmetric warfare.
◦ Adding insult to injury, ISIL is also present in the region.
2. Recessions in Lebanon
◦ Hezbollah’s influence in Beirut has sent cripple of waves across the entire region prompting political and diplomatic
crisis.
◦ Hezbollah, which opposes KSA and Israel, enjoys the support of Iran.
◦ This power struggle between KSA and Iran influenced the resignation of Hariri in Beirut.
3. Asian Spillover
◦ The power struggle between KSA and Iran has even reached parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan where they are trying
to get more and more influence e.g. in Balochistan.

54. Power Struggle between KSA and Iran
4. Struggles across Yemen
◦ Humanitarian crisis happened due to the war in Yemen between Houthis (supported by Iran) against pro-
Saudi regime.
5. Qatar Embargos and Sanctions
◦ KSA put sanctions on Qatar due to its growing ties with Iran through Egypt and Palestine.
◦ As far as the regional landscape is concerned, the states have to either side with KSA or Iran – there is no
in between.
◦ KSA has demands for Qatar like shutting down Al-Jazeera and scaling back cooperation with rivals of KSA
as well as removal of Turkey’s troops from Doha’s soil.
6. Diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv
◦ Due to the anti-Tehran stance by both these states, they are on the same page across the podium of the
region.

55. SAUDI ARABIA

56. A Dramatic Shift in Policy - Vision of 2030
◦ KSA’s economy has been heavily reliant on hydrocarbons but recently initiatives have been taken
by MBS in order to diversify KSA’s economy.
◦ The plan of the Saudis is to reduce the depence on oil and diversify its economy and develop
public service sectors such as health, education, infrastructure and tourism.
◦ Neom is the brain child of MBS which aims at being the Silicon Valley of the Gulf region. It has
an enormous scale with an invest of 500 billion over a terrain of 16,000 miles which will connect
borders of Egypt and Jordan. Futhermore, it will only run on renewable energy.

57. Investment Problems
◦ KSA has given a clear message to international businessmen and bankers to invest safely in KSA.
◦ However, investments in KSA have always met with obstacles due to the conservative nature of the
country and its links with fundamental groups.
◦ MBS addressed the issue stating that religious matters and morality need not be a part of this
investment.
◦ KSA got rid of the law which prevented Saudi women from driving in hopes of attracting foreign
investment.
◦ Furthermore, dozens of princes were lined up and put under arrest on charges of corruption and
modernity. However, an indirect objective seems to be the consolidation of power into the hands of
MBS. This will ensure smooth transitioning of power into the hands of ambitious MBS.
◦ However, some critics believe that all these changes are just cosmetic to catch the interest of the
outsiders and have no real value.

58. Transition Problems
◦ A major problem is transitioning from a petro-state to a technological state.
◦ This is because the society of KSA is extremely conservative but technology demands a liberal
and open view of the world to innovate.
◦ Competition with Dubai and proximity to terrorism are also factors that could discourage
investors.
◦ However, KSA is willing to go all in and the future will tell us whether KSA manages to transition
into a technological giant or fail due its own arrogance.

59. REFUGEE CRISIS

60. Who and Who isn’t a Refugee?
◦ Who is a Refugee?
◦ 1951 UN Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees
defines a refugee as ‘an individual who owing to a well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion, is outside the country of his
national, and is unable or unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country.’
◦ People who move as group across international boundaries to escape war or civil conflict are refugees.
◦ Most of the refugees are in gender-related cases e.g. women subjected to female genital cutting, women under
Taliban regime banned from getting education, laws against gays and lesbians, etc.
◦ Who isn’t a Refugee?
◦ Internally Displaced People (IDPs).
◦ Stateless people.
◦ People who move for economic reasons.
◦ People who are denied asylum are known as ‘rejected asylum seekers’; not refugees.

61. Refugees Over the Years
◦ Till 2000
◦ Around 13 million refugees according to UNHCR
◦ Mostly in Asia and Europe
◦ Afghanistan to Pakistan
◦ Till 2009
◦ More than 15 million refugees and 27 million IDPs
◦ Palestine, Afghans, Iraqis, etc. were the major refugees.
◦ Children constitute about 41% of the refugees.
◦ Till 2015
◦ 60 million refugees and IDPs.
◦ 1 in every 122 people is a refugee.
◦ Almost entire population of Italy.

62. Syrian Refugees
◦ More than 9 million refugees have fled their homes after the civil war outbreak in 2011.
◦ Most remain in Middle East but some have moved to Europe as well.
◦ Main refugee destinations are:
◦ Turkey (1.9 million refugees hosted)
◦ Lebanon
◦ Jordan
◦ Iraq
◦ Egypt
◦ The conditions of the refugees are bad:
◦ No adequate food or shelter
◦ No infrastructure
◦ Death of Alan Kurdi, a young Syrian boy who died next to a beach.
◦ Syrians are fleeing due to violence, collapsed infrastructure and children’s safety.

63. Afghan Refugees
◦ Afghan refugees were the largest (now the second largest) refugees till the Syrian Civil War.
◦ The educated class fled the country during the Afghan War.
◦ Many returned after the democratic setup was placed by the US invasion.
◦ Since 2002, more than 5.8 million have turned home.

64. How to Solve Refugee Crisis?
1. Safe routes to sanctuary for refugees.
2. Resettlement of refugees.
3. World leaders need to put saving lives first before politics or strategy.
4. Investing in search and rescue operations.
5. Pushing people back won’t stop them but rather have them take even more dangerous routes
to escape the oppression.
6. Prosecution of trafficking groups.
7. Governments need to stop blaming refugees for economic or social problems.
8. The world has a short memory. After WWII, most countries agreed to protect refugees and
even set up agencies like UNHCR but are not utilizing them properly.

65. Conclusion
◦ The real refugee problem will be solved if the actual reasons behind the crisis is solved.
◦ However, they may not be realistically people.
◦ So there needs to be global cooperation in order to save lives, at the very least.

66. SYRIA’S MUTATING
CONFLICT

67. Introduction
◦ Syrian civil war is ongoing internal armed conflict in Syria between President Bashar-al-Assad
and revel forces.
◦ Protests demand the end of five decades of ‘BATH PARTY’ rule of the country.
◦ The Syrian government characterized the insurgency as armed terrorist group.
◦ In December 2010, mass anti-government protests began in Tunisia and the Arab world as part
of the ‘Arab uprising’ movement.
◦ The protestors have shared techniques of civil resistance in sustained campaign involving highly
destructive arms strikes, demonstrations, marches, rallies as well as the use of all security
concerning sector and social media.

68. Internal Causes
1. Baath Party Hegemony
◦ Baath party has remained in power for the last five decades and it maintains tight control over Syria’s security forces
which has generated resented among Sunni Muslims.
◦ There is a sect dominated government in Syria.
2. Socio-Economic Reasons
◦ Discontent against government stronger among people in nation’s poor radical Sunni areas.
◦ Socio-economic inequality increased significantly after free market policies were initiated by the old Assad and
accelerated during the regime of his son Bashar-al-Assad.
3. Human Rights Violations
◦ According to some writers, Assad has failed to improve the state of human rights since taking power.
◦ All other political parties have remained banned making Syria a one political party state by the regime.
4. Other Factors
◦ Corruption
◦ Economic decline
◦ Unemployment
◦ Extreme poverty

69. External Causes
◦ US
◦ Obama asked for the resignation of President Assad and to bring policies of democracy to the Syrian
nation.
◦ US has significantly expanded sanctions against the indicated regime and its supporters.
◦ US military has made contingency plans to intervene in Syria but the administration denies this.
◦ To date, US has pledged a total of $60 million in humanitarian aid to Syria.
◦ The US congress wants a more active role in Syria.
◦ Russia
◦ Russia opposes international military intervention in Syria.
◦ However, Russian officials have not officially backed Assad either but have intervened on his request.
◦ Russia has supported the Annan’s plan for Syria.

70. External Causes
◦ Turkey
◦ Turkey-Syrian ties were strong before the uprising but gradually turned against Assad’s regime because
Assad was uncooperative with the Turkish leaders.
◦ Turkey, now, wants democracy and more liberal values in Syria.
◦ Currently, Turkey hosts the biggest amount of Syrian refugees.
◦ Iran
◦ One of Syria’s few strategic allies fears that the alliance is likely to dissolve outright if the prominently
Sunni opposition succeeds in changing Syria’s regime.
◦ Iran’s relationship is vital with Syria because it supports Hezbollah in the region.
◦ Both these countries use that group as leverage against Israel to achieve their regional and territorial
goals.
◦ However, many analysts believe Iran will instead pursue alternative ways to influence Israel and the Sunni
population in the future and not just rely on Syria.

71. Annan’s Six Points
1. Syrian led political process to address t he aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people.
2. UN supervised cessation of armed violence in all forms by all parties to protect civilization.
3. All parties to ensure provision of humanitarian assistance to all areas affected by the fighting
and to implement a daily two hour humanitarian pause.
4. Authorities to intensify the pace of release of detained persons.
5. Authorities to ensure freedom of movement of journalists.
6. Authorities to respect freedom to demonstrate peacefully.

72. A Way Out
◦ A Military Coup
◦ A military coup is a remote possibility.
◦ A Negotiated Solution
◦ A political settlement remains elusive.
◦ A Regional War
◦ The best hope would be to negotiate a solution because otherwise the war may spill over in other
regions as major regional player and global players are already involved.

73. ISIL: A CRITICAL
OVERVIEW

74. Brief History and Leadership
◦ The Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIS) is also known as ISIS, IS and DAESH.
◦ It is an Islamist terrorist group based in Iraq and Syria where it controls territory.
◦ It is also known to be present in Eastern Libya, parts of Egypt and some other areas of the Middle
East.
◦ The group was founded by Abu Musab-al-Zarqawi in 1999, a prominent leader of Al-Qaeda.
◦ In 2010, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became the new leader of the group. He recited the same verses that
Hazrat Abu Bakr did when he became the first Caliph.
◦ According to some sources, Baghdadi is a scholar of madina university. He has been one of the
pioneers of resistance in Iraq against US forces. He has been a prisoner in Abu Gureb prison.
◦ However, there have been speculations that Al-Baghdadi might be the puppet of CIA, Musad and MI6.

75. Composition and Capabilities
◦ IS claims that its human strength is no less than 100,000. CIA disproves that by saying it is 30,000 to 40,000.
◦ IS is majorly composed of military men from Saddam’s Baath Party.
◦ A major portion is comprised of Sunni uprisers against Assad’s regime.
◦ Over 3000 individuals from the Western world have joined IS, mostly from Britain and Australia.
◦ Economic Capability
◦ Richest terrorist organization
◦ Source of income is oil and gas
◦ Uninfluenced from foreign agendas due to independence of income
◦ Only organization with territorial control
◦ Military Capability
◦ Latest technology and arms.
◦ Iraqi government’s captured ammunition.
◦ Within a span of two years, IS captured more than four provinces of Iraq and established their caliphate.

76. Comparisons between Al-Qaeda and IS
Al-Qaeda ISIS
No territorial control Territorial control
No anti-shia posture Anti-shia posture
Guerilla warfare Guerilla and conventional warfare
Neither rich nor sufficient Richest militant group
Focus on Western world Focus is majorly on Arab world

77. Is IS Replacing Al-Qaeda?
◦ Yes
◦ IS has capability to replace Al-Qaeda
◦ Off shoots of Al-Qaeda
◦ Variety of military leadership
◦ Has a staunch ideology and unbending strategy which welcomes other militant groups as long as they
submit to IS
◦ No
◦ Regional and ideological differences.

78. Possibility of IS in Pakistan
◦ Yes
◦ Brochures have been distributed in Peshawar, DI Khan, Quetta, Lahore with messages: ‘IS has come to
rescue’ and ‘Ummah ko Khilafat Mubarak ho’
◦ Wall chalking in Quetta, Lahore, Multan, etc.
◦ Official website of IS claims to have opened its first office in Pakistan
◦ TTP-IS merger may become an issue
◦ No
◦ Former interior minister stated that IS is not present in Pakistan.
◦ Ex-COAS stated that, 'Daesh would not be allowed to make its print in Pakistani land or in Afghanistan.’
◦ Taliban are followers of Deobandi sect whereas IS belongs to Salafi sect, their cooperation is unlikely.

79. FUTURE OF ARAB
WORLD

80. Issues
◦ Fall of regimes
◦ Endangered regime of Bashar-Al-Assad
◦ Fall of Saddam
◦ Fall of Qaddafi in Libya
◦ Rise of radicals
◦ Al-Qaeda
◦ IS
◦ Hezbollah
◦ Declining writ of states
◦ ISIS territory in Iraq and Syria
◦ Sana captured by Hothi rebels

81. Issues
◦ Increasing sectarian rifts
◦ KSA vs. Iran
◦ Rising proxy war in the region
◦ US vs. Russia
◦ Eroding economies
◦ Syrian civil war
◦ End of oil age for KSA
◦ Iraq war

82. P5+1 DEAL

83. Background
◦ P5 means five permanent members of the UNSC (US, Russia, China, France and England).
◦ +1 refers to Germany’s induction in the nuclear deal as it played a key role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table
due to its energy requirements from Iran.
◦ The level of enrichment of Uranium starts from 1% to 99%
◦ In Europe, it is 5%.
◦ To prepare for a uranium nuclear bomb, it must be up to 90%.
◦ Iranian nuclear program was started in the late 90s.
◦ Western spy agencies reported that Iran was on its way to enrich Uranium to develop atomic weapons which Iran
denies; Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for civilian purposes only.
◦ In 2011, IAEA reported that Iran was enriching Uranium up to 17%.
◦ US states Iran enriched it up to 30%.
◦ Iran argues it is at 12%.
◦ As a result, economic sanctions were up on Iran by US and EU.

84. Background
◦ P5+1 deal with Iran was a probationary deal signed in October 2013 for six months and
extended three times.
◦ The deal was finally transformed into a permanent deal with the terms:
◦ Iran would roll back its nuclear enrichment program
◦ Iran would destroy its Arak nuclear field step wise.
◦ Iran would transport its enriched nuclear stockpiles to Russia.
◦ Iran has every right to use nuclear technology for civilian purposes but enrichment should not go above
5%.
◦ Sanctions on Iran would be removed step-wise.
◦ Iran would be allowed to export its products, including oil and gas.
◦ Sanctions on import of weapons would be removed.

85. Why Iran entered the deal?
◦ Shift in Iranian leadership from hardcore Ahmadinejad to softcore Hassan Rohani.
◦ Strong realization on the side of Iran that foreign sanctions had drained the economic resources.
◦ $24 billion reserves of Iran were frozen in foreign banks.
◦ Due to foreign sanctions, Iran steadily became isolated from the world community. US, EU and
UN put severe sanctions on it and it started to lose allies.
◦ Iran started losing the geo-political rivalry between itself, KSA and Israel.
◦ Security threats from US and rivals.

86. Why US entered the deal?
◦ Military option was used for more than a decade by US but it didn’t work as Iran continued its
nuclear program.
◦ Sanctions also did not achieve desired results.
◦ The proficient Iranian navy was also a hurdle in using force against Iran.
◦ Anti-US sentiment in the region would increase if the US decided to attack Iran.
◦ Obama administration opted for diplomacy instead.
◦ The immense oil and gas reserves of Iran were also a reason why US entered into a deal because
the gas reserves of KSA are dwindling and US needs new markets.

87. Future Implications
◦ There is a geo-strategic shift in the region. US is redefining its allies in the region evident from the
soft words spoken by Obama. However, Trump left the deal.
◦ Iran can become a key player in the region after it has settled its disputes with the Western world.
◦ Major economic boom of Iran would occur.
◦ Saudi-US partnership hampered.
◦ Sectarian rift may decrease with time but regional dominance rivalry would still define the game
being played between KSA and Iran.
◦ Implications on Pakistan
◦ Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline may be a possibility because West won’t pressure Pakistan anymore.
◦ Iran can become a transit corridor to Central Asia due to Chabahar port being created by India.
◦ Chabahar port might be harmful to CPEC.