THEORIES ON US CHINA RELATIONS

1. THEORIES OM US-
CHINA RELATIONS
U.S.-China Relations: How
Should the U.S. Deal with a
Rising Power?

2. 2
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Background Video
What perspective is represented in the video?

3. 3
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
• How should the United States deal
with China?
What is the first step we must take before
answering this question?
We must determine what China’s interests and
intentions are: everything flows from the assumptions
we make about what “China wants”
We must determine what China’s interests and
intentions are: everything flows from the assumptions
we make about what “China wants”

4. 4
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
• What does “China want”
Realist answer: ________________________________
Liberal answer: ________________________________
Marxist answer: ________________________________
Constructivst answer: __________________________
Power and regional dominance
Economic growth and
prosperity
Economic dominance
“Whatever we say it
wants”

5. 5
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
What are the policy implications of this realist
assumption? That is, how do realist answer the
question, “How should the U.S. deal with China?”
“China wants power and regional dominance”“China wants power and regional dominance”

6. 6
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Key Implication: Realists tell us that China must be
treated as a strategic threat, an enemy …
“China cannot rise peacefully” (Mearschiemer)
“[China] is bound to be no strategic friend of the
United States, but a long-term adversary”
(Bernstein and Munro)
“China wants power and regional dominance”“China wants power and regional dominance”

7. 7
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
What is the logic of the realist arguments provided
by Mearsheimer and Bernstein/Munro?
Mearscheimer: “Better to
be Godzilla than Bambi”
Translation
States with the potential
to become a great power,
a regional hegemon, will
always do so
“China wants power and regional dominance”“China wants power and regional dominance”

8. 8
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Mearscheimer
“To predict the future of Asia, one needs a theory
[i.e., realism] that explains how rising powers are
likely to act and how other states attempt to
establish hegemony …. The ultimate goals of
every great power is to maximize its share of
world power and eventually dominate the
system”
“China wants power and regional dominance”“China wants power and regional dominance”

9. 9
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Bernstein and Munro
“Nothing could be more important in understanding
China’s goals and self-image than its military
modernization program”
Basis logic: China’s military program is objective proof that
the Chinese are hell bent on countering U.S. power and,
eventually, pushing the United States out of Asia
altogether. When the Chinese are ready, they will not
hesitate to use force to achieve their goals
“China wants power and regional dominance”“China wants power and regional dominance”
According to the authors, what is
significant about China’s military
build-up? What does it tell us
about China’s intentions?
According to the authors, what is
significant about China’s military
build-up? What does it tell us
about China’s intentions?

10. 10
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
What are the policy implications of this liberal
assumption? That is, how do liberals answer the
question, “How should the U.S. deal with China?”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”“China wants economic growth and prosperity”

11. 11
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Key Implications. China’s energies are directed toward
creating a more prosperous economy, and confrontation
with the United States will not serve this purpose
The United States, therefore, should treat China as
potential strategic partner; it should build rather than burn
bridges (perhaps by encouraging China’s greater
integration into global institutions), and by recognizing
that China has legitimate interests in Asia
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”“China wants economic growth and prosperity”

12. 12
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Logic of Liberal Argument …
Internationally: China’s economic growth is creating
stronger basis for regional integration, which increases
incentive for cooperation and reduces incentive for
conflict or force
China is increasingly replacing Japan as the “hub of a
transnational assembly line of production” (Feffer)
A confrontational foreign policy could disrupt China’s growth,
“harm hundreds of millions of Chinese, and threaten the
Communist Party’s hold on power” (Brzezinski)
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”“China wants economic growth and prosperity”

13. 13
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
Logic of Liberal Argument …
Domestically: The democratic peace thesis
presupposes that a democratic China would be less
threatening; ironically, this point was made by Bernstein
and Munro …
“If China became a democracy its military build-up
would be far less threatening than if it remained a
dictatorship”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”“China wants economic growth and prosperity”
Bernstein and Munro’s point raises an important
question …

14. 14
Will China
become a
democracy?
How do Bernstein and
Munro answer this
question? Do they
provide a convincing
argument?
How do Bernstein and
Munro answer this
question? Do they
provide a convincing
argument?
Bernstein and Munro’s argument …
• Democracy is “contrary to Chinese political culture”
• Bureaucrats would have to relinquish power
• The Chinese people don’t want democracy
• Democracy would subvert foreign policy interests
Bernstein and Munro’s argument …
• Democracy is “contrary to Chinese political culture”
• Bureaucrats would have to relinquish power
• The Chinese people don’t want democracy
• Democracy would subvert foreign policy interests

15. 15
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
China as a democracy? Points to Consider
The past is not the future: no country was a democracy before it
became a democracy
Democracy has always been about power and it has always
involved taking power from one group
The Chinese population is huge and hugely diverse: millions may
be satisfied with the status quo, but millions may want a
fundamental change
The 20th century witnessed a huge increase in the number of
democracies: there is no reason to believe that Chinese leaders
are any more capable of stopping this trend than other dictators
There is an undeniable connection between capitalist
development and democracy

16. 16
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
The Logic of Liberal Argument
Whether or not China becomes a democracy, liberals tell
us that the country--or, more accurately, important actors
within the country--will have an interest in avoiding
conflict
U.S. foreign policy, therefore, should be premised on
encouraging cooperation and partnership, while ensuring
that China does not seriously threaten US interests; liberals,
then, might support a policy of “congagement”
“China wants economic growth and prosperity”“China wants economic growth and prosperity”

17. 17
U.S. Foreign Policy
The United States and China
A Key Distinction
Realists believe in certainties: the certainty of
confrontation, the certainty of great power behavior, the
certainty of Chinese aggression
Liberals believe in uncertainty: the uncertainty of
economic growth, the uncertainty of integration, the
uncertainty of political change (e.g., democratization),
the uncertainty of “choice”
Realism and Liberalism ComparedRealism and Liberalism Compared