Assignment 1: Due Sept 6th, 2016 (beginning of class) MGT 303 1. A retail store had sales of $45,000 in April and $56,000 in May. The store employs eight full-time workers who work a 40-hour week. In April the store also had seven part-time workers at 10 hours per week, and in May the store had nine part-timers at 15 hours per week (assume four weeks in each month). Use sales dollars as the measure of output. a. What is the percentage change in total (multi-factor) productivity from April to May? b. What is the percentage change in single-factor productivity with respect to the part-time workers from April to May? 2. Dick Holliday can build either a large video rental section or a small one in his store. He can also gather additional information (by conducting market study) or simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the results could be either positive or negative, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the information. Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the information will be positive. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn $15,000 with a large section or $5,000 with a small. With an unfavorable video-rental market, however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or $10,000 with a small section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday estimates that the probability of a favorable rental market is 0.7. A positive report from the study would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.9. Furthermore, a negative report from the additional information would decrease the probability of a favorable rental market to 0.4. Of course, Holliday could ignore these numbers and do nothing at any stage. By drawing and solving a decision tree, what is the maximum expected payoff that Holliday can achieve? What should he do? 3. Two members of a criminal-gang are arrested and imprisoned. The prosecutors lack sufficient evidence to convict the pair on the principal charge. However, the prosecutors offer each prisoner a bargain simultaneously. Each prisoner is given the opportunity either to: betray the other by testifying that the other committed the crime, or to remain silent. Let us call them Prisoner A and Prisoner B, and let us analyze how Prisoner A should make a decision. Prisoner A has two alternatives as mentioned above. What he does not know is Prisoner B’s action. But he knows that 1) if they both remain silent, then they are both sentenced to a year in prison on a lesser charge, 2) if he betrays and B remains silent, then he goes free while B will be sentenced to three years in prison, 3) if he remains silent and B betrays, then he will be sentenced to three years in prison while B goes free, and 4) if they both betray the other, then they are both sentenced to two years in prison. Now, remember that they are in solitary confinement with no means of communicating with the other. Furthermore, they ar ...

1. Assignment 1: Due Sept 6th, 2016 (beginning of class)
MGT 303
1. A retail store had sales of $45,000 in April and $56,000 in
May. The store
employs eight full-time workers who work a 40-hour week. In
April the store also
had seven part-time workers at 10 hours per week, and in May
the store had nine
part-timers at 15 hours per week (assume four weeks in each
month). Use sales
dollars as the measure of output.
a. What is the percentage change in total (multi-factor)
productivity from
April to May?
b. What is the percentage change in single-factor productivity
with respect to
the part-time workers from April to May?
2. Dick Holliday can build either a large video rental section or
a small one in his
store. He can also gather additional information (by conducting
market study) or
simply do nothing. If he gathers additional information, the
results could be either
positive or negative, but it would cost him $3,000 to gather the

2. information.
Holliday believes that there is a 50-50 chance that the
information will be
positive. If the rental market is favorable, Holliday will earn
$15,000 with a large
section or $5,000 with a small. With an unfavorable video-
rental market,
however, Holliday could lose $20,000 with a large section or
$10,000 with a small
section. Without gathering additional information, Holliday
estimates that the
probability of a favorable rental market is 0.7. A positive report
from the study
would increase the probability of a favorable rental market to
0.9. Furthermore, a
negative report from the additional information would decrease
the probability of
a favorable rental market to 0.4. Of course, Holliday could
ignore these numbers
and do nothing at any stage.
By drawing and solving a decision tree, what is the maximum
expected payoff
that Holliday can achieve? What should he do?
3. Two members of a criminal-gang are arrested and
imprisoned. The prosecutors
lack sufficient evidence to convict the pair on the principal
charge. However, the
prosecutors offer each prisoner a bargain simultaneously. Each
prisoner is given
the opportunity either to: betray the other by testifying that the
other committed
the crime, or to remain silent. Let us call them Prisoner A and

3. Prisoner B, and let
us analyze how Prisoner A should make a decision.
Prisoner A has two alternatives as mentioned above. What he
does not know is
Prisoner B’s action. But he knows that 1) if they both remain
silent, then they are
both sentenced to a year in prison on a lesser charge, 2) if he
betrays and B
remains silent, then he goes free while B will be sentenced to
three years in
prison, 3) if he remains silent and B betrays, then he will be
sentenced to three
years in prison while B goes free, and 4) if they both betray the
other, then they
are both sentenced to two years in prison.
Now, remember that they are in solitary confinement with no
means of
communicating with the other. Furthermore, they are both self-
interested and
have no loyalty to each other whatsoever. Determine the
appropriate decision
under uncertainty for Prisoner A using the following decision
rules, respectively:
a. Maximax
b. Maximin
c. Equally likely
Hint: The events (states of nature) to A are B’s possible
actions.

4. 4. Chung Manufacturing is considering the introduction of a
family of new products.
Long-term demand for the product group is somewhat
predictable, so the
manufacturer must be concerned with the risk of choosing a
process that is
inappropriate. Chen Chung is VP of operations. He can choose
among batch
manufacturing or custom manufacturing, or he can invest in
group technology.
Chen won’t be able to forecast demand accurately until after he
makes the
process choice. Demand will be classified into four
compartments: poor, fair,
good, and excellent. The table below indicates the payoffs
(profits) associated
with each process/demand combination, as well as the
probabilities of each long-
term demand level:
Poor Fair Good Excellent
Probability 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2
Batch -$200,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000
$1,300,000
Custom $100,000 $300,000 $700,000 $800,000
Group Tech -$1,000,000 -$500,000 $500,000
$2,000,000
a. Based on expected value, what choice offers the greatest
gain?
b. How much would Chen Chung be willing to pay for a forecast
that would
accurately determine the level of demand in the future?

5. 5. Toy Story: You are the owner of a toy stand in a mall and
you need to decide
how many units of a particular toy you will order to sell at your
stand. You know
that the demand will either be 20, 40, 60, 80 or 100 with equal
likelihood. The unit
cost of the toy is $4 and every unit you sell earns revenue of
$10 per unit.
Leftover units cannot be salvaged or re-sold and are worthless.
You have only
one opportunity to buy in anticipation of demand. Because the
toys are shipped
in batches, you must order in units of 20.
a. For each combination of your choice (order quantity) and
demand
realization, find your profit. Construct a decision table with the
profits you
find.
b. How many toys should you order to achieve highest expected
profit?
Hint: you only need to order one of the demand realizations.
Hence, both the
alternatives and the events are the same, namely the five
possible demands. The
outcome of any combination of your order quantity and the
demand is your profit.
Total Marks 10*5=50

6. Data Base 1: Hypertension
Objective:
To determine whether or not the community self-management
program is effective to promote health and reduce blood
pressure level in patients with hypertension
Rationale
In low-to-middle income country, hypertension is the leading
risk factor of cardiovascular disease. Currently the prevalence
of hypertension in upper middle income country, for example,
China, is 25-30%. Effective community based strategies to
promote health and reduce blood pressure level is critical to
improve health status and prevent high incidence of chronic
diseases.
Subjects
Eligible subjects are patients with hypertension aged 35 and
above. Eligible patients with hypertension in a rural District,
Fangshan District, Beijing, were selected to participate in the
intervention study. There were 300 people with hypertension
participated in the intervention group. Control group data were
not included in this data set.
Data
1. Health related data
a. SBP: Range score, 60-220 mm Hg
b. DBP: Range score, 30-120 mm Hg
c. Hypertension knowledge (assess patient’s knowledge in
healthy diet, exercise, health behaviour, salt intake, anger
control, smoking, alcohol intake): Range score: 0-8
d. Smoking
e. Diet habit
f. Vegetable and Fruit intake
g. Exercise (walking and jogging)
h. Hypertension management method
2. Demographic data: age, gender, education, income.
Intervention program Self-management skills
Self-management skills:

7. Medication, diet, exercise, emotional control.
Length of intervention: 6 months.
Measurements:
SBP and DBP, knowledge of hypertension risk factors were
measured at baseline (2011 March)
1. Reasonable range of SBP: 60-220 mm Hg
2. Reasonable range of DBP: 30-120 mm Hg
3. Hypertension knowledge score range (assess patient’s
knowledge in healthy diet, exercise, health behaviour, salt
intake, anger control, smoking, alcohol intake): 0-8
4. Smoking range score: 1-3
5. Diet habit range score: 1-4
6. Vegetable and Fruit intake: 1-4
7. Exercise: 1-4
8. Hypertension management method: 1-4
Demographic variables: age, gender, education, income.
The aims of the study are to:
1. Describe the characteristics of hypertension patients (age,
gender, education and income).
2. Describe characteristics of outcome variables: SBP, DBP,
knowledge of hypertension, health behaviour (smoking, diet,
vegetable and fruit intake, and exercise), management
methods.
Your research questions are:
1. What are the demographic characteristics of hypertension
patients ?
2. What are the characteristics of patients in relation to their
blood

8. pressure level, knowledge of hypertension, health behaviour
(smoking, diet, vegetable and fruit intake, and exercise)
and management method in preintervention
time ?
1. Variables: you need to identify-
· Demographic data: age, gender, education, income
· Blood pressure: SBP, DBP
· Knowledge of hypertension
· Health behaviour (smoking, diet, vegetable and fruit intake,
and exercise)
· Blood pressure management method
Variables/measurement type for each variable.
(You need to describe the type of variable, ie., specify
whether they are
dichotomous, nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio type for
the variables)
2.Data management and data cleaning.
Please delete data are outside the range of the scores which
were specified below:
1). Reasonable range of SBP: 60-220 mm Hg
2). Reasonable range of DBP: 30-120 mm Hg
3). Hypertension knowledge score range (assess patient’s
knowledge in healthy diet, exercise, health behaviour, salt
intake, anger control, smoking, alcohol intake): 0-8
4). Smoking range score: 1-3
5). Diet habit range score: 1-4
6). Vegetable and Fruit intake: 1-4
7). Exercise: 1-4

9. 8). Management method: 1-4
9). Age: 35 and above
(REMEMBER THAT DATA CLEANING would be
included as part of the
Process in determining the quality of the data – Please
check invalid values and
duplication of the cases). Please record every action you
will make and present the ID number and action you will
take in a table (eg.,
deletion of invalid values and duplication of the cases).
Please use table to list up
three columns: ID number, problems, actions
3. Descriptive Analysis: For each variable, choose the
appropriate
numerical statistical summary and or graphical summary
for hypertension
patients group, provide the results of statistical
assumption (skewness and
kurtosis figures) if the variables are ratio or interval data
type
a. Normality check. The distribution of the continuous
variables need to be checked. This can be checked by using
descriptive statistics analysis (checking skewness and kurtosis)
(This is for you to answer research question only).
b. Conduct data analysis using SPSS and present data using
publication format: please run descriptive analysis and then use
either publication table presentation format or graph to present
the results. Please justify the reason of your choice of data
presentation method. You need to describe how you will present
the data for each variable based on the statistical assumption

10. check. The statistical assumption is normality check if the
variables are interval or ratio data. If the variable does not show
the normal distribution pattern, you need to present data using
median and range (min, max). Please do not do any comparison
analysis or association analysis for this assignment as you are
only assessed for your understanding of descriptive analysis.
c. Interpretation of the results: Finally you need to describe the
descriptive analysis results for each variable and explain what
the results mean to audience using descriptive analysis method.
Database 2: Diabetes: Calculation Risk, Rate based on the
given database
200 diabetes patients undergoing treatment were followed up in
several large medical centers and observe how many patients
developed cardiovascular disease over the 50 weeks. At baseline
stage, none of the patients had cardiovascular disease.

11. Risk (incidence) and rates of cardiovascular disease with and
without medication and lifestyle intervention (50 weeks
intervention for intervention group, and no medication for
control group)
Question 1: What is the risk (Incidence) of cardiovascular
disease after 50 weeks intervention in both intervention and
control group? (
Question 2: What is the rate of cardiovascular disease (based on
the person-weeks) after 50 weeks intervention in intervention
and control group? (Calculate person-weeks of observation first,
then answer the question)