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Article 50
- 1. Article 50: Brexit and Uncertainty Paul Cadman MD Mentor Political Advisor
- 2. Article 50: Brexit and uncertainty • Paul Cadman • Why are we here ? • What is Article 50 ? • What does triggering Article 50 mean ? • What could possibly go wrong? • Uncertainty is an opportunity • 2019 • Manufacturing Matters • The 7 Fundamentals of business success
- 3. Paul Cadman 1. Born in Birmingham 2. Undiagnosed dyslexia and school Fighting all the way 3. Fire Service 4. Mergers & Acquisitions 5. Automotive turnaround 6. Forces Recruitment 7. Politics and columnist
- 4. Why are we here ? 1. Nostalgia in the face of globalised uncertainty 2. Constraints provided by the EU 3. Ideology 4. Immigration
- 5. What is Article 50 ? Lisbon Treaty 1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements. 2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament. 3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period. 4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it. A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.
- 6. What does triggering Article 50 mean? • Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 shortly before 12:30pm on March 29 2017. This means Britain should officially leave the EU no later than April 2019. • For the next two years, Britain will negotiate a deal for leaving the EU, a process that's likely to be lengthy and complicated. • Any deal must be approved by a “qualified majority” of EU member states and can be vetoed by the European Parliament.
- 8. What could possibly go wrong?
- 9. Uncertainty is an opportunity This is how I am responding to the uncertainty created by Brexit • My manifesto for 2019 and onwards • Manufacturing Matters • The 7 Fundamentals of business success
- 10. 2019 • Get the tax avoiders to pay what they should • By British made/grown products & services • 50 year infrastructure plan • Regionalise health & education • Incentivise local production of clean energy • Pick trade partners carefully • Give power to volunteers and communities • Invest in SME
- 11. Manufacturing Matters • Manufacturing Matters is located in Snow Hill, Birmingham • The team comprises industry leaders in manufacturing, IT, finance, marketing, education & training and lobbying & representation • Deliver the 10 pillars in the Industrial strategy
- 12. Manufacturing Matters 2 • Manufacturing Matters is targeted to providing support for business growth to small and medium sized manufacturers in the UK • It uses a mix of industry expertise, industry influence, access to capital and marketing to transform manufacturing businesses
- 13. Manufacturing Matters 3 • The manufacturing sector has been stagnating since its heyday in the 1950s and 1960s • Poor industrial strategy has left the sector without the leadership, infrastructure and capability that our overseas competitors possess • Combining a range of skills with commercial funding means that our interventions take a strategic rather than short term approach
- 14. Manufacturing Matters 4 • Leaving the EU provides us with the opportunity to forge new trading partnerships across the world • Manufacturing, once the envy of the globe, can be at the forefront of such trading relationships • A low cost, low tax, low regulation industrial environment will not enhance the UK’s global reputation. A strong manufacturing base underpinned by highly performing small and medium sized manufacturers will
- 15. Manufacturing Matters 5 • Are we looking for small and medium sized manufacturing companies who are serious about growth and have an appetite for export ? • Are looking for businesses that are prepared to enter into a risk/reward partnership to secure high growth ? • Are we looking for businesses that are failing to deliver their potential with leaders/owners who are perhaps tired or unable to face the requirements of Industry 4.0 ?
- 16. The 7 Fundamentals of business success • Fire • Earth • Water • Air • Time • Poetry • Vision – By Paul Cadman expected winter 2017
- 18. Parting shot Unless you are clear about your purpose and your values and are doing something that you really care about, it is difficult to act as a leader: You are unlikely to possess the will and the resilience that are needed to carry you through the inevitable uncertainties and setbacks. Why Should Anyone Be Led by You: Goffee & Jones (2006)
Editor's Notes
- Great diversity amongst voters by age: 75% 18-24 voted remain, 56% 25-49, 44% 50-64, 39% 65+ Retrotropia – Zygmaunt Bauman - famous sociologist said that people no longer feel that the future will be better than the past and kark back to a nostalgic view of Britain as white, with pounds shillings and pence and blue passports Whilst being part of the EU we cannot do individual deals with emerging nations or with big trade blocs like US and China. Perception that EU overly bureaucratic and knowledge that for some countries adherence to say H&S legislation is only lip service so UK companies end up uncompetitive because they have to bear the costs of legislation Ideologically EU socialist – in favour of employee rights, whereas UK more corporatist (like US) with focus on profit Media proposes that uncontrolled immigration is the reason why NHS is unable to cope (UCL’s Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration at University College London found that European immigrants to the UK pay more in taxes than they receive in benefits, effectively subsiding public services), lack of housing, crime rising. Actual facts are that immigrants more entrepreneurial (Daily Telegraph 12.5.16 15.4pc of immigrant adults launching companies compared to just 5.3pc of lifelong UK residents), benefits tourism (The Independent 25.2.16 - Recent immigrants have made a net contribution of £20 billion to the UK over the last ten years, according to a UCL study, and foreigners are barred from several types of benefits without having permanent residency in the UK, unlike those on work visas, students and asylum seekers don't qualify) and crime reduces in areas immigrants move into (A report by LSE in 2013 found that crime actually fell significantly in areas that had experienced mass immigration from eastern Europe) but in 2016, perception is king Home Office have not implemented EU rules on immigration (can be made to return after 3 months if unable to secure employment and free migration has exclusions that Home Office has not invoked).
- The cost of not getting good trade agreements in place means we will end up reverting to World Trade Organisation rules (although Mr. Trump seems to want to interfere with this bastion, potentially making things even worse for us). It seems that the Brexit Minister cannot calculate the costs of having no deals with EU members, even though a report showing some figures was recently leaked to the press. The House of Lords have criticised the department that will be responsible for negotiating deals with the top 15 priority countries saying that it lacks sufficient resources to do its job effectively. Remember the report produced by Deloitte that said it will cost another £300 million to 'resource-up' the department - the report so quickly dismissed by government? The application of World Trade Organisation rules will add 10% to the cost of cars and 14% to the cost of food and there will be a real need to raise taxes at a time when public services will be stretched beyond breaking point.
- Significantly raise taxes on the super rich and on large corporations. Encourage people to buy local by reducing VAT to zero for home made/grown goods and services and selectively introduce tariffs on imports that compete with our own. Create a 50 year infrastructure development plan that attracts private investment funding. Regionalise health and education: put the professionals in charge and stop unnecessary testing/counting. Incentivise the production of home made clean energy, creating a circular economy and reducing the cost of waste. Avoid trade deals with any other country that seeks to compromise our journey to becoming a high knowledge/high pay economy with an adequately resourced public services sector. Empower the voluntary and community sectors to address issues of inequality, inequity and exclusion. Help us truly become one nation thriving on diversity. Incentivise investment in small and medium sized manufacturing companies and at the same time protect home made innovation from foreign exploitation. Implement universal basic income that will reduce the cost of poverty using crypto currencies to administer the system. Reduce the costs of ownership: for example explore mobility as a service as a viable alternative to car ownership.
- Ten pillars 1. Investing in science, research and innovation – we must become a more innovative economy and do more to commercialise our world leading science base to drive growth across the UK. 2. Developing skills – we must help people and businesses to thrive by: ensuring everyone has the basic skills needed in a modern economy; building a new system of technical education to benefit the half of young people who do not go to university; boosting STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths) skills, digital skills and numeracy; and by raising skill levels in lagging areas. 3. Upgrading infrastructure – we must upgrade our standards of performance on digital, energy, transport, water and flood defence infrastructure, and better align central government infrastructure investment with local growth priorities. 4. Supporting businesses to start and grow – we must ensure that businesses across the UK can access the finance and management skills they need to grow; and we must create the right conditions for companies to invest for the long term. 5. Improving procurement – we must use strategic government procurement to drive innovation and enable the development of UK supply chains. 6. Encouraging trade and inward investment – government policy can help boost productivity and growth across our economy, including by increasing competition and helping to bring new ways of doing things to the UK. 7. Delivering affordable energy and clean growth – we need to keep costs down for businesses, and secure the economic benefits of the transition to a low-carbon economy. 8. Cultivating world-leading sectors – we must build on our areas of competitive advantage, and help new sectors to flourish, in many cases challenging existing institutions and incumbents. 9. Driving growth across the whole country – we will create a framework to build on the particular strengths of different places and address factors that hold places back – whether it is investing in key infrastructure projects to encourage growth, increasing skill levels, or backing local innovation strengths. 10.Creating the right institutions to bring together sectors and places – we will consider the best structures to support people, industries and places. In some places and sectors there may be missing institutions which we could create, or existing ones we could strengthen, be they local civic or educational institutions, trade associations or financial networks.
- Fire: passion for leadership drives everything. If you do not care about what you are doing, you will lack the resilience to lead: the slightest resistance will knock you off course and your followers will smell your lack of commitment. Earth: if your strategy and business plans are not rooted in reality, they will, like a sandcastle, be washed away by the tide. Only 8% of people understand strategy in the first place but if you have not spent the time testing your market, your customer's appetites and your sense of purpose, your business will drift away into oblivion. Water: dynamite may blow rocks apart but it is the persistence of water that erodes all in its path. You need persistence to make a success of your start-up; you need persistence you win that sale; you need persistence to help your teams navigate through uncertainty. Nothing is achieved without persistence. Air: ideas are ten a penny but until someone is able to breathe life into them they will remain scattered, suffocated and unfulfilled. So how do you capture the next big idea? How do you give it the air it needs to survive? How do you make it soar? Time: in the 1980s time management became the big thing with executives clutching their 'filofaxes' tight and within which their entire lives were mapped out. Unless you prioritise, you will always be playing catch up and if you prioritise badly, you destroy one of your most valuable assets. If you turn up late to a fire, all you can do is watch it burn. Poetry: I used to hate poetry at school but as I got older, I am constantly inspired by those who can craft a few words into something that means everything. Communication is key: whether to a team member, your employees, the local community or your children. Communication is a craft. Vision: most of us have eyes but very few of us can see. Its like when you are learning to drive: your head is going through the motions but your mind is fixated on the three point turn manoeuvre and you really cannot see any traffic building up around you. 20/20 vision in business is a real asset and if you aren't looking in every direction, somethin nasty is going to take you by surprise.