This document provides an economic summary and outlook by Anirban Basu of Sage Policy Group for Susquehanna Workforce Network's annual meeting in 2016. It includes charts and data on topics like global GDP growth, oil prices, employment levels in the US, Maryland and Baltimore region, and unemployment rates. Overall GDP growth is projected to be moderate at around 3% globally and in the US in 2016, with a mixed picture across industries and regions.

1. By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
June 17th, 2016
The Economist Who Loved Me
On Behalf of
Susquehanna Workforce Network, Inc.
Annual Meeting 2016

2. The World is Not
(Growing) Enough
*1999: Pierce Brosnan; Sophie Marceau

3. -3.8%
2.4%
-0.5%
3.1%
7.5%
6.5%
6.4%
-1.8%
3.5%
3.0%
4.1%
2.4%
2.5%
1.5%
1.9%
0.5%
2.6%
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
1.5%
1.9%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Brazil
Mexico
Latin America & the Caribbean
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India (1)
China
Emerging & developing Asia
Russia
Emerging & developing Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging market & developing economies
United States
Australia
Canada
United Kingdom
Japan
Spain
Italy
Germany
France
Euro area
Advanced economies
Annual % Change
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas
2016 Projected
Notes: 1. For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at
market prices with fiscal year 2011/12 as a base year. 2. For World Output, the quarterly estimates and projections account for
approximately 90 percent of annual world output at purchasing-power-parity weights. For Emerging Market and Developing
Economies, the quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of annual emerging market and
developing economies’ output at purchasing-power-parity weights.
2016 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.2%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2016.

4. $0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
$/Barrel
May 2016:
$46.79 /Barrel
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. Dollars
May 2001 through May 2016
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

5. World Oil Demand Growth
2007Q1 through 2016Q1*
Source: The World Bank; International Energy Agency
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1*
mb/d,growthyearoveryear
Other Non-OECD
OECD
China
*2016Q1 is an estimate

6. Moneypenny—Metal Price Indices
May 2007 through May 2016
Source: The World Bank
US$ Nominal
Base metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.
Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Base Metals
Iron Ore
Precious Metals
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
2010=100

7. Source: Quandl.com
Baltic Dry Index
June 2009 through June 2016
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
Oct-12
Feb-13
Jun-13
Oct-13
Feb-14
Jun-14
Oct-14
Feb-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000
June 10th
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw
materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea.
The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier
size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.

8. Quantum of Solace
*2008: Daniel Craig; Olga Kurylenko

9. -10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2016Q1: +0.8%
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2016Q1*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis * 2nd Estimate

10. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
2015Q2 – 2016Q1*
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Personal
Consumption
Government
Spending
Net Exports Gross
Investment
2.4
0.5
0.2
0.9
2.0
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
1.7
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
1.29
0.20
-0.21
-0.45
SAAR(%)
Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16
3.9
2.0
1.4
0.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
GDP
PercentChangefromPrecedingPeriod(SAAR)
2016Q1: +0.8%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis * 2nd Estimate

11. -1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600 May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Thousands
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 2016:
+38K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
May 2002 through May 2016

12. National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
May 2015 v. May 2016
-129
-39
4
63
101
157
219
394
425
525
678
-300 -100 100 300 500 700 900
Mining and Logging
Manufacturing
Information
Other Services
Government
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,398K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

13. Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
April 2015 v. April 2016
Absolute Change
-1,000
-700
2,000
3,000
3,300
6,300
8,900
9,100
10,500
14,500
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
Information
Government
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Other Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
MD Total:
+55.9K; +2.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,633K; +1.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD
added 53,266 jobs between April 2015 and April 2016.

14. -2,100
200
400
1,200
1,600
2,100
3,300
3,800
7,200
12,500
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000
Government
Information
Financial Activities
Other Services
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Professional and Business Services
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
April 2015 v. April 2016
Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total:
+30.2K; +2.2%
MD Total (SA):
+55.9K; +2.1%
US Total (SA):
+2,633K; +1.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. -2,500
-1,500
-500
500
1,500
2,500
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
12-MonthNetChange
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cecil County Employment
April 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)
April 2015 v. April 2016:
+1,341; +2.7%

16. -5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
12-MonthNetChange
April 2015 v. April 2016:
+1,791; +1.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Harford County Employment
April 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)

17. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
April 2015 v. April 2016 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 IDAHO 3.8 17 MARYLAND 2.1 32 MONTANA 1.3
2 DELAWARE 3.7 17 MASSACHUSETTS 2.1 32 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.3
3 OREGON 3.5 20 HAWAII 2.0 32 OHIO 1.3
4 UTAH 3.4 21 KENTUCKY 1.9 38 CONNECTICUT 1.2
5 GEORGIA 3.3 21 VERMONT 1.9 39 ILLINOIS 1.1
5 WASHINGTON 3.3 23 INDIANA 1.6 39 RHODE ISLAND 1.1
7 FLORIDA 3.2 23 NEW JERSEY 1.6 41 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.0
8 ARIZONA 3.1 23 TEXAS 1.6 42 PENNSYLVANIA 0.9
9 TENNESSEE 2.9 26 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.5 43 MAINE 0.5
10 CALIFORNIA 2.8 26 NEBRASKA 1.5 44 NEW MEXICO 0.2
11 COLORADO 2.7 26 WISCONSIN 1.5 45 KANSAS 0.0
11 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.7 29 MINNESOTA 1.4 46 OKLAHOMA -0.1
13 NEVADA 2.6 29 MISSISSIPPI 1.4 47 LOUISIANA -0.6
14 MICHIGAN 2.5 29 NEW YORK 1.4 47 WEST VIRGINIA -0.6
15 NORTH CAROLINA 2.3 32 ALABAMA 1.3 49 ALASKA -1.0
16 VIRGINIA 2.2 32 IOWA 1.3 50 WYOMING -3.7
17 ARKANSAS 2.1 32 MISSOURI 1.3 51 NORTH DAKOTA -3.8
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change
April: +1.9%
May: +1.7%

18. Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch
as of March 2016

19. U.S. Unemployment Rate
April: 5.0%
May: 4.7%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
April 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 SOUTH DAKOTA 2.5 16 MONTANA 4.2 32 RHODE ISLAND 5.3
2 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.6 19 MISSOURI 4.3 36 NORTH CAROLINA 5.4
3 NEBRASKA 3.0 19 TENNESSEE 4.3 37 ARIZONA 5.5
4 COLORADO 3.1 21 TEXAS 4.4 37 GEORGIA 5.5
5 HAWAII 3.2 21 WISCONSIN 4.4 37 WYOMING 5.5
5 NORTH DAKOTA 3.2 23 OKLAHOMA 4.5 40 CONNECTICUT 5.7
5 VERMONT 3.2 23 OREGON 4.5 41 NEVADA 5.8
8 MAINE 3.4 25 MARYLAND 4.6 41 SOUTH CAROLINA 5.8
9 IDAHO 3.7 26 NEW JERSEY 4.7 41 WASHINGTON 5.8
9 UTAH 3.7 27 FLORIDA 4.8 44 MISSISSIPPI 6.0
11 KANSAS 3.8 27 MICHIGAN 4.8 45 ALABAMA 6.1
11 MINNESOTA 3.8 29 NEW YORK 4.9 46 NEW MEXICO 6.2
13 ARKANSAS 3.9 30 INDIANA 5.2 47 LOUISIANA 6.3
13 IOWA 3.9 30 OHIO 5.2 48 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 6.4
13 VIRGINIA 3.9 32 CALIFORNIA 5.3 48 WEST VIRGINIA 6.4
16 DELAWARE 4.2 32 KENTUCKY 5.3 50 ALASKA 6.6
16 MASSACHUSETTS 4.2 32 PENNSYLVANIA 5.3 50 ILLINOIS 6.6

20. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)
April 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
3.4 7
San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.5
2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-
WV Metropolitan Statistical Area
3.5 7
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical
Area (1)
4.5
2
Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA
3.5 13
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.6
2
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area
3.5 14
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.7
5
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
3.7 15
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.8
6
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.3 15
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.8
7
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.5 15
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach,
FL Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.8
7
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.5 18
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-
DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.9
7
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
4.5 19
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
5.6
7
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.5 20
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.2
1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.

21. MD County Unemployment Rates
April 2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR
1 Howard County 3.2 13 Prince George's County 4.5
2 Montgomery County 3.3 14 Baltimore County 4.7
3 Carroll County 3.5 14 Caroline County 4.7
4 Anne Arundel County 3.7 16 Cecil County 5.0
4 Frederick County 3.7 16 Washington County 5.0
4 Queen Anne's County 3.7 18 Garrett County 5.7
7 Calvert County 3.8 19 Wicomico County 6.0
8 Talbot County 4.0 20 Allegany County 6.3
9 St. Mary's County 4.1 21 Dorchester County 6.6
10 Harford County 4.2 21 Baltimore City 6.6
11 Charles County 4.3 23 Somerset County 7.0
11 Kent County 4.3 24 Worcester County 9.4

22. Harford County Unemployment Rate
April 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
UnemploymentRate
April 2016: 4.2%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

23. Cecil County Unemployment Rate
April 2002 – April 2016 (NSA)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
UnemploymentRate
April 2016: 5.0%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
25 Year
Compositional
Change
Mining and Logging 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% -0.1%
Construction 5.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.3% 4.3% 4.5% -0.4%
Manufacturing 16.3% 14.8% 13.2% 10.7% 8.8% 8.8% -7.5%
Trade, Transportation,
and Utilities 20.8% 20.3% 19.9% 19.4% 18.9% 19.0% -1.8%
Information 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% -0.5%
Financial Activities 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 5.7% -0.3%
Professional and
Business Services 9.9% 10.8% 12.5% 12.5% 12.7% 13.8% 3.9%
Education and Health
Services 9.9% 11.3% 11.5% 13.2% 15.3% 15.5% 5.6%
Leisure and Hospitality 8.5% 8.9% 8.9% 9.5% 10.0% 10.6% 2.1%
Other Services 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1%
Government 16.6% 16.7% 15.7% 16.4% 17.3% 15.6% -1.0%
National Nonfarm Employment, Sectoral Composition

25. Maryland Nonfarm Employment
Sectoral Composition
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 Jan-10 Jan-15
25 Year Change
Compositional
Change
Mining, Logging,
and Construction 7.5% 6.2% 6.5% 7.2% 5.8% 5.8% -1.8%
Manufacturing 9.1% 8.1% 7.1% 5.6% 4.6% 3.9% -5.2%
Trade,
Transportation,
and Utilities
20.6% 19.8% 19.2% 18.4% 17.3% 17.4% -3.2%
Information 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.5% -0.7%
Financial
Activities 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5% -0.8%
Professional and
Business Services 11.8% 12.8% 15.0% 15.2% 15.3% 16.1% 4.4%
Education and
Health Services 10.2% 12.2% 12.5% 13.8% 15.8% 16.4% 6.1%
Leisure and
Hospitality 8.5% 8.6% 8.3% 8.9% 9.1% 10.1% 1.6%
Other Services 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3% -0.1%
Government 19.4% 19.5% 18.4% 18.3% 19.9% 19.1% -0.3%

26. People Persons will Persist through Automation
Advantage: Women
Source: Fivethirtyeight.com, David J. Deming, “The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market
• Interpersonal skills are increasingly a requirement of
top jobs;
• While STEM skills are still desirable, they are more
likely to be assumed by computers;
• A 2013 study by Oxford researchers estimated half of
U.S jobs would be vulnerable to automation by 2033;
• Cognitive skills don’t vary by gender, but women
perform better on tests of social perceptiveness and
emotional intelligence.

27. Tomorrow Never Dies
*1997: Pierce Brosnan; Michelle Yeoh; Teri Hatcher

28. -9.5%
-3.1%
-0.7%
-0.5%
0.2%
2.1%
2.6%
3.6%
4.5%
5.2%
6.5%
8.3%
12.2%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Gasoline Stations
Electronics & Appliance Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Food Services & Drinking Places
Health & Personal Care Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
12-month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business
May 2015 v. May 2016*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau *May 2016 advanced estimate
Total Retail Sales: +2.5% YOY

29. Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through April 2016
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
One-monthPercentChange
April 2016: 123.9
where 2010: 100

30. Dr. Know
• Not a Happy New Year so far.
Everyone knows about China and N.
Korea, but we have problems right
here;
• Corporate profit margins are slipping
and inflationary pressures are
building – does not sound like a
great recipe for stock prices or for
corporate investment;
• Only the consumer is really
contributing significantly to growth,
with state and local government
spending playing a supporting role;
• Job growth should remain decent in
the near-term – we ended 2015 with a
near-record in total job openings and
recent JOLTS data have indicated
high demand for human capital;
• It’s really about meaningful
credentials – that’s just the way it is –
here are some of the areas of focus –
health, homebuilding, logistics, IT,
finance, equipment
repair/maintenance and assembly;
• We may be transitioning very quickly
from the mid-cycle stage of the
recovery to the late-stage: 2017-18
outlook very murky.
*1962: Sean Connery; Ursula Andress

31. Thank You
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