Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO Sage Policy SWN Annual Meeting Presentation

1. Workforce Development
in the Post-Pandemic
World
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
On Behalf of
The Susquehanna Workforce Network
June 18th, 2021

2. Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 – 2021Q1*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *2nd Estimate
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1990Q1
1991Q1
1992Q1
1993Q1
1994Q1
1995Q1
1996Q1
1997Q1
1998Q1
1999Q1
2000Q1
2001Q1
2002Q1
2003Q1
2004Q1
2005Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
2018Q1
2019Q1
2020Q1
2021Q1
2020-2021
1990-2019 % Change from Preceding Period (SAAR)
2021Q1: +6.4%

3. Net Change in U.S. Jobs
May 2002 – May 2021
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800 May-02
Nov-02
May-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
May-05
Nov-05
May-06
Nov-06
May-07
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-17
Nov-17
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
March
2020-May
2021
April
2002-February
2020
Monthly Job Growth (000’s)
May 2021:
+559,000

4. -73
-76
-193
-225
-353
-509
-708
-730
-1,057
-1,167
-2,538
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0
Financial Activities
Mining & Logging
Information
Construction
Other Services
Manufacturing
Professional & Business Services
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
Education & Health Services
Government
Leisure & Hospitality
Thousands, SA
U.S. Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector
February 2020 v. May 2021
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
All told 7.6 million jobs lost

5. U.S. Job Losses by Industry
February 2020 v. April 2020 % Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-3.1%
-4.4%
-9.6%
-9.9%
-10.8%
-11.1%
-11.6%
-12.1%
-14.6%
-23.7%
-48.6%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Financial Activities
Government
Information
Mining & Logging
Manufacturing
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
Construction
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Total Employment:
-14.7%

6. U.S. Job Losses by Industry
February 2020 v. May 2021 % Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-0.8%
-2.6%
-2.9%
-3.3%
-4.0%
-4.3%
-5.1%
-5.9%
-6.6%
-11.0%
-15.0%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities
Construction
Professional & Business Services
Manufacturing
Education & Health Services
Government
Other Services
Information
Mining & Logging
Leisure & Hospitality
Total Employment:
-5.0%

7. Cecil County Employment (Place of Residence)
April 2005 – April 2021 (NSA)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000 Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
12-Month
Net
Change
April 2021 YOY:
+2,088 jobs (+4.5%)
April 2021 v. February 2020:
-3,509 (-6.7%)

8. Harford County Employment (Place of Residence)
April 2005 – April 2021 (NSA)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-18,000
-15,000
-12,000
-9,000
-6,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
12-Month
Net
Change
April 2021 YOY:
+5,354 jobs (+4.3%)
April 2021 v. February 2020:
-10,029 (-7.2%)

9. U.S. Unemployment Rate
May 2000 – May 2021
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
May-00
Nov-00
May-01
Nov-01
May-02
Nov-02
May-03
Nov-03
May-04
Nov-04
May-05
Nov-05
May-06
Nov-06
May-07
Nov-07
May-08
Nov-08
May-09
Nov-09
May-10
Nov-10
May-11
Nov-11
May-12
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-13
May-14
Nov-14
May-15
Nov-15
May-16
Nov-16
May-17
Nov-17
May-18
Nov-18
May-19
Nov-19
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Unemployment
Rate
(%)
Total Unemployment Men Women

10. Unemployment Rate: Susquehanna Region & Maryland
2000-2021
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Note: Data
are NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).
3.7%
7.8%
6.8%
6.2%
4.1%
9.7%
6.0%
5.0%
3.6%
8.0% 5.8%
4.6%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Maryland Cecil County Harford County

11. Susquehanna Region Job Openings by Industry:
pre/post pandemic
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data).
Pre-Pandemic (January 2020)
Industry (top 10) Openings
% of Job
Openings w/
Industries
Listed
Professional, Scientific, &
Technical Services
2,875 35.6%
Health Care & Social Assistance 1,504 18.6%
Retail Trade 787 9.7%
Manufacturing 704 8.7%
Administrative & Support / Waste
Management & Remediation Svs
417 5.2%
Educational Services 368 4.6%
Accommodation & Food Services 277 3.4%
Wholesale Trade 246 3.0%
Other Services (except Public Admin.) 188 2.3%
Public Administration 181 2.2%
Post-Pandemic/Present (May 2021)
Industry (top 10) Openings
% of Job
Openings w/
Industries
Listed
Professional, Scientific, &
Technical Services
2,528 30.1%
Health Care & Social Assistance 1,368 16.3%
Retail Trade 998 11.9%
Educational Services 632 7.5%
Manufacturing 555 6.6%
Administrative & Support / Waste
Management & Remediation Svs
415 4.9%
Accommodation & Food
Services
412 4.9%
Wholesale Trade 321 3.8%
Transportation & Warehousing 257 3.1%
Other Services (except Public Admin.) 205 2.4%
• The same industries present the most job opportunities…

12. Susquehanna Region Job Openings by Occupation Group: pre/post pandemic
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data).
Pre-Pandemic (January 2020)
Occupation Group (top 10)
% of Job Openings
w/ Occupation
Groups Listed
Computer & Mathematical Occupations 21.0%
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occ’s 13.2%
Architecture & Engineering Occ’s 10.1%
Office & Administrative Support Occ’s 8.0%
Management Occ’s 7.0%
Transportation & Material Moving Occ’s 5.4%
Business & Financial Operations Occ’s 5.1%
Sales & Related Occ’s 4.2%
Production Occ’s 3.6%
Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occ’s 3.0%
• Many of the occupation groups with job openings are the same, though there have been
some shifts, such as increased demand for transportation/material moving workers…
Post-Pandemic/Present (May 2021)
Occupation Group (top 10)
% of Job Openings
w/ Occupation
Groups Listed
Transportation & Material Moving Occ’s 16.8%
Computer & Mathematical Occupations 12.4%
Office & Administrative Support Occ’s 12.3%
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occ’s 10.2%
Management Occ’s 6.6%
Architecture & Engineering Occ’s 6.0%
Production Occ’s 6.0%
Sales & Related Occ’s 5.1%
Education, Training, & Library Occ’s 4.3%
Business & Financial Operations Occ’s 3.1%

13. Susquehanna Region Job Openings by Job Skills Requirements: pre/post pandemic
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data).
Notes: 1. The exhibit shows the top advertised detailed job skills for job openings advertised online in Susquehanna
Workforce Region, Maryland on October 11, 2016 (Jobs De-duplication Level 2). 2. Jobs De-duplication Level 2: high
level de-duplication of advertised jobs (for statistical analysis).
Pre-Pandemic (January 2020)
Rank Detailed Job Skill (top 10) Skill Group
1 Customer service Customer Service Skills
2 Must be flexible Basic Skills
3 Problem solving Basic Skills
4 Organizational skills Basic Skills
5 Decision making Basic Skills
6 Interpersonal skills Interpersonal Skills
7 Work independently Basic Skills
8 Attention to detail Basic Skills
9 Providing information
Administrative
Assistant Skills
10 Time management Basic Skills
• “Basic skills” still in high demand
Post-Pandemic/Present (May 2021)
Rank Detailed Job Skill (top 10) Skill Group
1 Customer service Customer Service Skills
2 Must be flexible Basic Skills
3 Organizational skills Basic Skills
4 Problem solving Basic Skills
5 Attention to detail Basic Skills
6 Interpersonal skills Interpersonal Skills
7 Work independently Basic Skills
8 Decision making Basic Skills
9 Time management Basic Skills
10 Positive attitude Interpersonal Skills

14. Susquehanna Region Job Openings by Tools/Technology Requirements: pre/post pandemic
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data).
Notes: 1. The exhibit shows the top advertised detailed job skills for job openings advertised online in Susquehanna
Workforce Region, Maryland on October 11, 2016 (Jobs De-duplication Level 2). 2. Jobs De-duplication Level 2: high
level de-duplication of advertised jobs (for statistical analysis).
• More demand for proficiency in tools/technologies related to
distribution/warehousing/delivery; still demand for proficiency with software.
Pre-Pandemic (January 2020)
Rank Detailed Tool/Technology Tool/Technology Group
1 Microsoft (MS) Office Office Suite Software
2
Structured query language
(SQL)
Database User Interface and
Query Software
3 JavaScript Web Platform Dev. Software
4 C#
Object or Component Oriented
Dev. Software
5
Hypertext markup language
(HTML)
Web Platform Dev. Software
6 Linux software Operating System Software
7 Forklift Forklifts
8 Deployment software
Configuration Management
Software
9 Microsoft PowerPoint Presentation Software
10
Microsoft SQL Server
Integration Services (SSIS)
Enterprise Application
Integration Software
Post-Pandemic/Present (May 2021)
Rank Detailed Tool/Technology Tool/Technology Group
1 Scanners Scanners
2 Microsoft (MS) Office Office Suite Software
3 Microsoft PowerPoint Presentation Software
4 Forklift Forklifts
5 Linux software Operating System Software
6 Ladders Ladders
7 Pallet Jack Pallet Trucks
8
Structured query language
(SQL)
Database User Interface and
Query Software
9 Python
Object or Component Oriented
Dev. Software
10 Motor vehicles Automobiles or Cars

15. Susquehanna Region Job Openings by Certification Requirements: pre/post pandemic
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data).
Notes: 1. The exhibit shows the top advertised detailed job skills for job openings advertised online in Susquehanna
Workforce Region, Maryland on October 11, 2016 (Jobs De-duplication Level 2). 2. Jobs De-duplication Level 2: high
level de-duplication of advertised jobs (for statistical analysis).
• Most of the top certifications listed on job postings are still in the areas of nursing/medicine
and IT/cybersecurity/computer networking.
Pre-Pandemic (January 2020)
Rank Certification Group
Certification
Sub-Category
1
American Heart Association (AHA)
CPR & First Aid Certs
Nursing
2 Nursing Credentials & Certs Nursing
3 CompTIA Certifications IT - All Other
4 Commercial Drivers License (CDL) Ground Transportation
5 (ISC)² Certifications Info & Cyber Security
6
Project Management Institute (PMI)
Certs
Business Planning
7 Cisco Associate Certifications Computer Network
8 Social Worker Credentials & Certs Social & Human Services
9
Security Professional Education Dev.
(SPeD) Certifications
Info & Cyber Security
10
American Board for Transplant
Certification (ABTC)
Medical Professional
Post-Pandemic/Present (May 2021)
Rank Certification Group
Certification
Sub-Category
1
American Heart Association (AHA)
CPR & First Aid Certifications
Nursing
2 Nursing Credentials & Certifications Nursing
3 Commercial Drivers License (CDL) Ground Transportation
4 CompTIA Certifications IT - All Other
5 (ISC)² Certifications Info & Cyber Security
6 Cisco Associate Certifications Computer Network
7
Security Professional Education Dev.
(SPeD) Certifications
Info & Cyber Security
8 Social Worker Credentials & Certs Social & Human Services
9
National Assoc. of Forensic Counselors
(NAFC)-Addictions Specialties
Counseling
10
American Association of Medical
Assistants (AAMA) Certifications
Medical Professional

16. Ratio of Unemployed to Job Openings in Maryland
as of April 2021
Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange, Labor Market Information (online advertised jobs data); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program. Notes: 1. Job openings figures are Jobs De-
duplication Level 2: High level de-duplication of advertised job openings (for statistical analysis).
0.46
0.65
1.92
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Mid-Maryland WIA
Anne Arundel WIA
Baltimore City WIA
Susquehanna WIA
Frederick County WIA
Upper Shore WIA
Western Maryland WIA
Montgomery County WIA
Baltimore County WIA
Southern Maryland WIA
Lower Shore WIA
Prince George's County WIA
Unemployed/Job Opening

17. Outlook

18. University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
2005 – 2021
Source: University of Michigan
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
June 2021: 86.4
where 1996: 100

19. U.S. Saving Rate, April 2005 – April 2021
(Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0 Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-10
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Aug-12
Dec-12
Apr-13
Aug-13
Dec-13
Apr-14
Aug-14
Dec-14
Apr-15
Aug-15
Dec-15
Apr-16
Aug-16
Dec-16
Apr-17
Aug-17
Dec-17
Apr-18
Aug-18
Dec-18
Apr-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Savings
Rate
(%)
Apr.
2021:
14.9%

20. NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism: Good Time to Expand
1986 – 2021
Source: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
May
2021:
13%
% of respondents who think the next 3 months will be a good time to for small business to expand

21. Conclusion
• For an economy to flourish, both demand and supply sides of economy
must participate.
• With ongoing stimulus, demand gets a further boost, but supply will be
constrained by numerous factors, and not just in America.
• The result is that the U.S. savings rate will remain elevated, spring
loading the economy for rapid economic growth once vaccines become
more broadly available.
• The back half of 2021 should be spectacular for economic growth.
• However, there will be a day of reckoning as deficit hawks come back
into fashion, creating the possibility of greater austerity during the years
ahead.

22. Thank You
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