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By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
June 27th, 2014
The Long Climb Back:
Manufacturing in MD
On Behalf of
Susquehanna...
Historic and Projected World Output Growth
2004 through 2015*
Source: International Monetary Fund
*2014-2015 data are proj...
U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals
6-Month Moving Average
March 2004 through March 2014
Source: U.S. Energy Information Ad...
U.S. Oil Production
6-Month Moving Average
March 2004 through March 2014
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
10...
Source: Moody’s Economy
Recession Watch
as of March 2014
Industrial Production
January 2001 through May 2014
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the r...
National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
May 2013 v. May 2014
-31
17
45
46
47
105
188
363
391
573
635
-200 0 200 400...
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100 Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-03
Feb-04
Jul-04
Dec-04
May-05
Oct-05
Mar-06
Aug-06
...
Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
May 2013 v. May 2014
Absolute Change
-3,700
-3,400
-2,200
-100
...
-1,900
-1,400
-1,000
-700
200
1,600
4,600
4,700
5,900
7,600
-8,000 -3,000 2,000 7,000
Government
Manufacturing
Information...
Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
May 2013 v. May 2014
Absolute C...
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500 Jan-02
Jun-02
Nov-02
Apr-03
Sep-03
Feb-04
Jul-04
Dec-04
May-05
O...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Growth in Manufacturing Jobs, Best and Worst States
May 2013 to May 2014
Best Worst
Sta...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing Employment as a % of Total US Manufacturing Employment
May 2014
Rank Stat...
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
May 2013 v. May 2014 Percent Change
RANK STAT...
MD County Unemployment Rates
April 2014
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR
1 Howard County 3.9 12 Prince George's C...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers*
2000Q1 through 2014Q1
*SA, Constant 198...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Hourly Earnings: Manufacturing v. All Workers*
May 2006 through May 2014
*SA, a...
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Weekly Earnings: Manufacturing v. All Workers*
May 2006 through May 2014
*SA, a...
Bachelors Degrees by Race & Citizenship 2012
Science1 & Engineering v. Social Sciences & Other2
Source: National Science F...
Source: The Manufacturing Institute (based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, and MAPI)...
Source: Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011.
The Manufact...
Source: Manufacturing Institute
The Manufacturing Institute: M-List
*Maryland: Community College of Baltimore County
State...
Source: Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011.
Growth in Ac...
Swimming Upstream, but It’s Worth It
• Economy needs more good jobs;
• Human capital shortages have
clearly impacted the a...
Thank You
 Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup
 You can always reach me at
abasu@sagepolicy.com
 Please look for upda...
Source: 1. Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011.
2. The So...
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Manufacturing in MD 6.27.14

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Manufacturing in MD 6.27.14

  1. 1. By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. June 27th, 2014 The Long Climb Back: Manufacturing in MD On Behalf of Susquehanna Workforce Network, Inc.
  2. 2. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2015* Source: International Monetary Fund *2014-2015 data are projections -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5.1% 4.7% 5.2% 5.3% 2.7% -0.4% 5.2% 3.9% 3.2% 3.0% 3.6% 3.9% Annual%Change
  3. 3. U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals 6-Month Moving Average March 2004 through March 2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 1,700,000 1,800,000 1,900,000 2,000,000 2,100,000 2,200,000 2,300,000 2,400,000 2,500,000 2,600,000 2,700,000 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 VolumeinMillionCubicFeet March 2014: 2,676,622 MMcf
  4. 4. U.S. Oil Production 6-Month Moving Average March 2004 through March 2014 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000 220,000 240,000 260,000 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 ThousandBarrels March 2014: 253,935K Barrels
  5. 5. Source: Moody’s Economy Recession Watch as of March 2014
  6. 6. Industrial Production January 2001 through May 2014 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries. 80 85 90 95 100 105 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Index(2007=100) (Base year: 2007)
  7. 7. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector May 2013 v. May 2014 -31 17 45 46 47 105 188 363 391 573 635 -200 0 200 400 600 800 Information Government Mining and Logging Other Services Financial Activities Manufacturing Construction Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services Thousands, SA All told 2,379K Jobs gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2014: +10,000 Net Change in U.S. Manufacturing Jobs (monthly), BLS January 2002 through May 2014
  9. 9. Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) May 2013 v. May 2014 Absolute Change -3,700 -3,400 -2,200 -100 3,800 3,800 3,900 4,900 6,000 9,100 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Manufacturing Information Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Other Services Financial Activities Government Professional and Business Services Mining, Logging, and Construction Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality MD Total: +22.1K; +0.9% US Total (SA): +2,379K; +1.7% *According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD gained 14,702 jobs between May 2013 and May 2014. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. -1,900 -1,400 -1,000 -700 200 1,600 4,600 4,700 5,900 7,600 -8,000 -3,000 2,000 7,000 Government Manufacturing Information Other Services Financial Activities Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Mining, Logging, and Construction Professional and Business Services Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) May 2013 v. May 2014 Absolute Change Baltimore MSA Total: +19.6K; +1.5% MD Total (SA): +22.1K; +0.9% US Total (SA): +2,379K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  11. 11. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) May 2013 v. May 2014 Absolute Change -4,000 -3,800 -2,600 -2,600 -2,500 200 3,700 4,200 5,700 7,700 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 Professional and Business Services Government Manufacturing Information Mining, Logging, and Construction Other Services Financial Activities Education and Health Services Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Leisure and Hospitality DC MSA Total: +6.0K; +0.2% US Total (SA): +2,379K; +1.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  12. 12. -3,000 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 Jan-02 Jun-02 Nov-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Feb-04 Jul-04 Dec-04 May-05 Oct-05 Mar-06 Aug-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics May 2014: -700 jobs Net Change in Maryland Manufacturing Jobs, BLS January 2002 through May 2014
  13. 13. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Growth in Manufacturing Jobs, Best and Worst States May 2013 to May 2014 Best Worst State Jobs State Jobs Indiana +13,700 Illinois -11,400 Texas +13,000 New York -8,900 Ohio +11,700 California -7,700 Minnesota +9,800 Pennsylvania -4,900 Wisconsin +9,100 Maryland -3,700
  14. 14. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Manufacturing Employment as a % of Total US Manufacturing Employment May 2014 Rank State Share Rank State Share 1 California 10.6% 41 Nevada 0.4% 2 Texas 7.6% 42 Rhode Island 0.3% 3 Ohio 5.8% 43 Vermont 0.3% 4 Illinois 4.9% 44 New Mexico 0.2% 5 Michigan 4.8% 45 Delaware 0.2% 6 Pennsylvania 4.8% 46 North Dakota 0.2% 7 Indiana 4.3% 47 Montana 0.2% 8 Wisconsin 4.0% 48 Alaska 0.1% 9 New York 3.8% 49 Hawaii 0.1% 10 North Carolina 3.8% 50 Wyoming 0.1% Maryland Rank: 32 Share: 0.9%
  15. 15. U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) May 2013 v. May 2014 Percent Change RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 NORTH DAKOTA 4.6 17 OKLAHOMA 1.7 34 MONTANA 1.0 2 NEVADA 3.9 17 WISCONSIN 1.7 34 WYOMING 1.0 3 TEXAS 3.4 20 MINNESOTA 1.6 37 KENTUCKY 0.9 4 WEST VIRGINIA 3.1 20 RHODE ISLAND 1.6 37 MARYLAND 0.9 5 COLORADO 3.0 22 MAINE 1.5 37 NEBRASKA 0.9 5 OREGON 3.0 22 MASSACHUSETTS 1.5 37 OHIO 0.9 5 UTAH 3.0 22 MISSOURI 1.5 41 CONNECTICUT 0.8 8 FLORIDA 2.9 25 MISSISSIPPI 1.4 42 ALABAMA 0.7 9 CALIFORNIA 2.3 26 ALASKA 1.3 42 IDAHO 0.7 9 DELAWARE 2.3 27 ARIZONA 1.2 42 VERMONT 0.7 11 GEORGIA 2.1 27 ARKANSAS 1.2 45 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 0.6 11 TENNESSEE 2.1 27 HAWAII 1.2 45 MICHIGAN 0.6 11 WASHINGTON 2.1 27 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.2 47 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.5 14 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.0 31 KANSAS 1.1 48 ILLINOIS 0.3 15 NORTH CAROLINA 1.9 31 NEW YORK 1.1 49 VIRGINIA 0.1 16 INDIANA 1.8 31 PENNSYLVANIA 1.1 50 NEW JERSEY 0.0 17 IOWA 1.7 34 LOUISIANA 1.0 51 NEW MEXICO -0.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  16. 16. MD County Unemployment Rates April 2014 Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR 1 Howard County 3.9 12 Prince George's County 5.6 2 Montgomery County 4.1 14 Kent County 6.0 3 Carroll County 4.5 15 Garrett County 6.1 3 Frederick County 4.5 16 Allegany County 6.3 5 Calvert County 4.7 16 Caroline County 6.3 6 Anne Arundel County 4.8 16 Cecil County 6.3 6 Queen Anne's County 4.8 19 Washington County 6.4 6 St. Mary's County 4.8 20 Wicomico County 7.1 9 Charles County 5.1 21 Baltimore City 7.8 10 Harford County 5.3 22 Somerset County 7.9 11 Talbot County 5.5 23 Dorchester County 8.2 12 Baltimore County 5.6 24 Worcester County 10.9 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q1 through 2014Q1 *SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+ $320 $325 $330 $335 $340 $345 $350 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 2009Q1 2009Q3 2010Q1 2010Q3 2011Q1 2011Q3 2012Q1 2012Q3 2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1
  18. 18. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Hourly Earnings: Manufacturing v. All Workers* May 2006 through May 2014 *SA, average hourly earnings of private employees $19.0 $20.0 $21.0 $22.0 $23.0 $24.0 $25.0 $26.0 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 All industries Manufacturing
  19. 19. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Average Weekly Earnings: Manufacturing v. All Workers* May 2006 through May 2014 *SA, average weekly earnings of private employees $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 All industries Manufacturing
  20. 20. Bachelors Degrees by Race & Citizenship 2012 Science1 & Engineering v. Social Sciences & Other2 Source: National Science Foundation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% U.S. Citizen & Permanent Resident Temporary Resident White Asian or Pacific Islander* Black Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native Other or Unknown Race or Ethnicity Science & Engineering Social Sciences & Other Note: All race categories are U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents; 1Science refers to Bachelors Degrees in: Agricultural, Biological, Physical & Computer Sciences, Earth, Atmospheric & Ocean Sciences, Mathematics and Statistics. 2Social Sciences & Other includes all Social Sciences, Psychology and other. *Asian or Pacific Islander - Asian and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander. %ofdegrees
  21. 21. Source: The Manufacturing Institute (based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, and MAPI) Manufacturing Workforce by Education Level 2000 v. 2012 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Less Than High School High School But No College Some College B.A. Degree Graduate and Professional Degree PercentofTotalManufacturingEmployment 2000 2012
  22. 22. Source: Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011. The Manufacturing Career Pipeline
  23. 23. Source: Manufacturing Institute The Manufacturing Institute: M-List *Maryland: Community College of Baltimore County State # of M-List Institutions State # of M-List Institutions Florida 14 Michigan 2 California 7 Nevada 2 North Carolina 7 Texas 2 Oklahoma 6 Washington 2 Illinois 5 Arizona 1 Minnesota 5 Indiana 1 Pennsylvania 5 Maryland* 1 Kansas 4 Massachusetts 1 Ohio 3 Missouri 1 Arkansas 2 South Carolina 1 Iowa 2 Virginia 1 Kentucky 2 Wisconsin 1 Total 78 The M-List recognizes high schools, community colleges, technical schools, and universities that are teaching manufacturing students to industry standards. Specifically, these schools offer students the opportunity to earn NAM-Endorsed Manufacturing Skills Certifications as a standard part of their manufacturing education programs.
  24. 24. Source: Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011. Growth in Accredited Manufacturing Programs 1980-2010 MfgE MfgET Total 1980 3 21 24 1985 4 30 34 1990 10 41 51 1995 16 50 66 1996 N/A N/A N/A 1997 N/A N/A N/A 1998 N/A N/A N/A 1999 N/A N/A N/A 2000 22 49 71 2001 23 49 (peak) 72 2002 25 48 73 (peak) 2003 26 42 68 2004 26 43 69 2005 27 (peak) 43 70 2006 25 35 60 2007 22 35 57 2010 23 34 57
  25. 25. Swimming Upstream, but It’s Worth It • Economy needs more good jobs; • Human capital shortages have clearly impacted the ability of the US manufacturing sector to recover; • Students appear to be focused on other things and program accessibility has actually been dwindling in many instances; • Maryland’s trends are worse – still losing jobs and relying on other states to train workers; • Is right-to-work an issue; • Can we leverage the Port of Baltimore politically or otherwise?; • Should the focus be on two- year versus four-year institutions or elsewhere altogether?; and • How would one begin to forge a strategy designed to re- industrialize Maryland?
  26. 26. Thank You  Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup  You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com  Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com.  Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)  Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.
  27. 27. Source: 1. Hugh Jack et al. “Curricula 2015: A Four Year Strategic Plan for Manufacturing Education,” June 2011. 2. The Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME), “Workforce Imperative: A Manufacturing Education Strategy,” 2012. Four Pillars of Manufacturing Knowledge

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