Master Plan
How to Manage risk
   Risk identification      Kuesioner wewenang
   Risk classification       dan tanggung jawab
   Risk magnitude            Direksi dan Komisaris
    measure                   yang terkait dengan
                              pengendalian internal
   Risk probability          dan Risiko
    measure
                               Control identification
   Risk scoring               Control classification
                               Control scoring
The Method




             Musavie Abdillah
The Process (in time)
                                     Risk Analysis

                              Risk
 Risk Identification                             Risk Measure          Risk Scoring
                          Classification




  Assess once, review
                                                   semi-annually
     semi-annually


                                   Control Analysis
         Questioner                Control               Control
                                                                           Control Scoring
     of Board’s control         Identification        Classification




 Create once, review
                                                   semi-annually
  every three years
How to identify
Risk Identification


  Create counterpart per
   department, per Company with
   “SK Direksi” to be the man in-
   charge at their company as risk
   agent  [because risk owner will
   precisely identify any on going
   risk happen better than Holding’s
   RMO]
  Risk Agent will define the
   business process in a flowchart
   form at their department
  Risk Agent then identify the risk
   on each process
How to identify
Risk Identification

                                No               Risk
  Put all the risk               1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada
                                    tahun 2010

   together in worksheet          2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan



  Handed to Holding’s
                                  3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri

                                  4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke

   RMO                              client under standard
                                  5 Rugi kurs
                                  6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan

     RMO then will compile       7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien
                                  8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah

      all the risk together,      9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah


      eliminate any recurrent    10 Terkena hukuman eksternal
                                    (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll)
                                 11 Reputasi buruk
      risks
                                 12 Karyawan under-stress


                                 13 Lemahnya kontrol dan
                                    komunikasi
                                 14 Miskomunikasi dengan klien
Classifying yourrisk
        Risk                          No               Risk                           Risk Category
    Classification                      1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada     Liquidity risk
                                          tahun 2010
    RMO then classify risk into 15
     category:                          2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan          Legal risk

        Interest rate risk             3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri Political risk
        Exchange rate risk
                                        4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke       Productivity risk
        Liquidity risk                   client under standard
        Credit risk (gagal bayar)      5 Rugi kurs                         Exchange rate risk
        Capital structure risk         6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan        Innovation risk
                                        7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien    Credit risk
        Human resource risk            8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah       Procedure risk
        Productivity risk
        Technology risk                9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah Innovation risk

        Innovation risk               10 Terkena hukuman eksternal         Legal risk
        Information system risk          (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll)
        Procedure risk                11 Reputasi buruk                    Reputational risk

        Environment risk              12 Karyawan under-stress             Human resources risk
        Reputational risk
        Legal risk
        Political risk                13 Lemahnya kontrol dan              Procedure risk
                                          komunikasi
                                       14 Miskomunikasi dengan klien        Human resources risk
Classifying your risk
        Risk
    Classification


    RMO decide the
     magnitude standard for
     each category
                                       Probable
                                                        Moderate          High         High
                                        (High)
                     Likelihood




                                  Reasonably Possible
                                                           Low          Moderate       High
                                      (Moderate)


                                        Remote
                                                           Low            Low         Moderate
                                         (Low)


                                                        Insignificant   Significant    Material
                                                            (Low)       (Moderate)      (High)

                                                                        Magnitude
Classifying your risk
         Risk
     Classification                         Risk Category           Magnitude
                                            Interest rate risk         M
      RMO decide the                       Exchange rate risk         M
                                            Liquidity risk             H
       magnitude standard for               Credit risk                M
       each category                        Capital structure risk     L
                                            Human resource risk        L
                                            Productivity risk          H
Low risk is basic risk                L 1   Technology risk            L
                                      M 2   Innovation risk            L
Medium risk is twice then low risk
                                            Information system risk    M
High risk is twice then medium risk   H 4
                                            Procedure risk             M
                                            Environment risk           H
                                            Reputational risk          H
                                            Legal risk                 M
                                            Political risk             L
Measuring your risk
    Risk Measure
                                                                                                   Score
                           No               Risk                    Risk Category      Magnitude   Weight   Porbability
                             1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada    Liquidity risk

    RMO then handed-          tahun 2010
                                                                                          H          4             50%
                             2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan         Legal risk

     back the risk list      3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri Political risk
                                                                                          M          2             15%

                                                                                           L         1              1%
     categorized to risk     4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke
                               client under standard
                                                                Productivity risk
                                                                                          H          4             75%
                             5 Rugi kurs                        Exchange rate risk        M          2             50%
     agent for them to       6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan
                             7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien
                                                                Innovation risk
                                                                Credit risk
                                                                                          L
                                                                                          M
                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                   95%
                                                                                                                   25%
                             8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah      Procedure risk
     measure the risks       9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah Innovation risk
                                                                                          M          2             80%

                                                                                           L         1             80%

    Risk Agent measure    10 Terkena hukuman eksternal
                              (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll)
                                                                Legal risk
                                                                                          M          2             95%
                           11 Reputasi buruk                    Reputational risk

     the probability       12 Karyawan under-stress             Human resources risk
                                                                                          H          4             50%


                                                                                           L         1             50%


                           Very unlikely                           10%
                           Unlikely                                20%
                           Likely                                  40%
                           Very likely                             80%
                           Certain                                100%
Scoring your risk
    Risk Scoring

                                            Score                Risk
 Risk Agent handed               Magnitude Weight Porbability   Score
  back measured risk
                                     H         4          50%        4%
  lists to RMO
                                     M         2          15%        1%
 RMO finalize the risk
                                      L        1           1%      0.0%
  of each category into
                                     H         4          75%      6.1%
  scoring of risk                    M         2          50%      2.0%
                                     L         1          95%      1.9%
        RS = (RM*prob)/TR            M         2          25%      1.0%

                                     M         2          80%      3.3%
     RS = Risk Score
     RM = Risk Magnitude             L        1          80%      1.6%
     TR = Total Risk Magnitude
       on each Category
The Detail
BoD and BoC control
Create questionnaire for BOD & BOC regardless control of risks on:


     Interest rate risk                        Innovation risk
     Exchange rate risk                        Information system risk
     Liquidity risk                            Procedure risk
     Credit risk                               Environment risk
     Capital structure risk                    Reputational risk
     Human resource risk                       Legal risk
     Productivity risk                         Political risk
     Technology risk
Scoring your control
   Questionnaire filled to see the score and then
    compared to its risk

      Score = 1 – questionnaire filled

   To simplify the visualization of risk against control
Visualization of Risk Profile
Need to do
The list need to be
 SK Direksi penunjukkan Risk agent
 Review on 15 category of risks
 Review on magnitude standard of each
  risk category
 Control questionnaire

Annual Company Risk Assessment

  • 1.
  • 2.
    How to Managerisk  Risk identification  Kuesioner wewenang  Risk classification dan tanggung jawab  Risk magnitude Direksi dan Komisaris measure yang terkait dengan pengendalian internal  Risk probability dan Risiko measure  Control identification  Risk scoring  Control classification  Control scoring
  • 3.
    The Method Musavie Abdillah
  • 4.
    The Process (intime) Risk Analysis Risk Risk Identification Risk Measure Risk Scoring Classification Assess once, review semi-annually semi-annually Control Analysis Questioner Control Control Control Scoring of Board’s control Identification Classification Create once, review semi-annually every three years
  • 5.
    How to identify RiskIdentification  Create counterpart per department, per Company with “SK Direksi” to be the man in- charge at their company as risk agent  [because risk owner will precisely identify any on going risk happen better than Holding’s RMO]  Risk Agent will define the business process in a flowchart form at their department  Risk Agent then identify the risk on each process
  • 6.
    How to identify RiskIdentification No Risk  Put all the risk 1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada tahun 2010 together in worksheet 2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan  Handed to Holding’s 3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri 4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke RMO client under standard 5 Rugi kurs 6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan  RMO then will compile 7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien 8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah all the risk together, 9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah eliminate any recurrent 10 Terkena hukuman eksternal (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll) 11 Reputasi buruk risks 12 Karyawan under-stress 13 Lemahnya kontrol dan komunikasi 14 Miskomunikasi dengan klien
  • 7.
    Classifying yourrisk Risk No Risk Risk Category Classification 1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada Liquidity risk tahun 2010  RMO then classify risk into 15 category: 2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan Legal risk  Interest rate risk 3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri Political risk  Exchange rate risk 4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke Productivity risk  Liquidity risk client under standard  Credit risk (gagal bayar) 5 Rugi kurs Exchange rate risk  Capital structure risk 6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan Innovation risk 7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien Credit risk  Human resource risk 8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah Procedure risk  Productivity risk  Technology risk 9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah Innovation risk  Innovation risk 10 Terkena hukuman eksternal Legal risk  Information system risk (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll)  Procedure risk 11 Reputasi buruk Reputational risk  Environment risk 12 Karyawan under-stress Human resources risk  Reputational risk  Legal risk  Political risk 13 Lemahnya kontrol dan Procedure risk komunikasi 14 Miskomunikasi dengan klien Human resources risk
  • 8.
    Classifying your risk Risk Classification  RMO decide the magnitude standard for each category Probable Moderate High High (High) Likelihood Reasonably Possible Low Moderate High (Moderate) Remote Low Low Moderate (Low) Insignificant Significant Material (Low) (Moderate) (High) Magnitude
  • 9.
    Classifying your risk Risk Classification Risk Category Magnitude Interest rate risk M  RMO decide the Exchange rate risk M Liquidity risk H magnitude standard for Credit risk M each category Capital structure risk L Human resource risk L Productivity risk H Low risk is basic risk L 1 Technology risk L M 2 Innovation risk L Medium risk is twice then low risk Information system risk M High risk is twice then medium risk H 4 Procedure risk M Environment risk H Reputational risk H Legal risk M Political risk L
  • 10.
    Measuring your risk Risk Measure Score No Risk Risk Category Magnitude Weight Porbability 1 Jaminan TKI tak terbayar pada Liquidity risk  RMO then handed- tahun 2010 H 4 50% 2 Regulasi ketenagakerjaan Legal risk back the risk list 3 Hubungan diplomatik luar negeri Political risk M 2 15% L 1 1% categorized to risk 4 Karyawan yang di deliver ke client under standard Productivity risk H 4 75% 5 Rugi kurs Exchange rate risk M 2 50% agent for them to 6 Pengembangan pasar stagnan 7 Keterlambatan bayar dari klien Innovation risk Credit risk L M 1 2 95% 25% 8 Proses bisnis tidak terarah Procedure risk measure the risks 9 Perusahaan tidak memiliki arah Innovation risk M 2 80% L 1 80%  Risk Agent measure 10 Terkena hukuman eksternal (fiskus, eksternal auditor dll) Legal risk M 2 95% 11 Reputasi buruk Reputational risk the probability 12 Karyawan under-stress Human resources risk H 4 50% L 1 50% Very unlikely 10% Unlikely 20% Likely 40% Very likely 80% Certain 100%
  • 11.
    Scoring your risk Risk Scoring Score Risk  Risk Agent handed Magnitude Weight Porbability Score back measured risk H 4 50% 4% lists to RMO M 2 15% 1%  RMO finalize the risk L 1 1% 0.0% of each category into H 4 75% 6.1% scoring of risk M 2 50% 2.0% L 1 95% 1.9% RS = (RM*prob)/TR M 2 25% 1.0% M 2 80% 3.3%  RS = Risk Score  RM = Risk Magnitude L 1 80% 1.6%  TR = Total Risk Magnitude on each Category
  • 12.
  • 13.
    BoD and BoCcontrol Create questionnaire for BOD & BOC regardless control of risks on:  Interest rate risk  Innovation risk  Exchange rate risk  Information system risk  Liquidity risk  Procedure risk  Credit risk  Environment risk  Capital structure risk  Reputational risk  Human resource risk  Legal risk  Productivity risk  Political risk  Technology risk
  • 14.
    Scoring your control  Questionnaire filled to see the score and then compared to its risk Score = 1 – questionnaire filled  To simplify the visualization of risk against control
  • 15.
  • 16.
    Need to do Thelist need to be  SK Direksi penunjukkan Risk agent  Review on 15 category of risks  Review on magnitude standard of each risk category  Control questionnaire