The main aim of this dissertation is to develop a strategic modelling tool to assess the provision of additional airport capacity in Britain, with a particular focus on London and the South East, using the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model. Airport capacity is principally set by the capacity of its terminal(s) and runways. Over time, some growth is expected. The Davies Commission is currently reviewing the case for additional airport capacity in the London area, either by building a new airport or by expanding existing airports. This growth might be offset by a fuel price increase. In Heathrow (LHR) and other airports in the South East England there might be suppressed demand and some of this demand is either going to move to other airports or remain suppressed. This phenomenon has not yet been included in the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand and Capacity Assessment model (ITRC model). This dissertation is analysing the current passenger demand and also attempts to assess the future demand and specifically to determine the results of the possible knock-on effects to the airports of the region. Further objectives of this study are: • To review the work of the Airport Commission and the related literature. • To review work on modelling the demand for and supply of airport infrastructure. • To adapt the ITRC model so as to incorporate cross effects between airports.

2. Contents
Introduction
Literature Review
Methodology
Scenario 1: Determination of passenger demand for each zone of the system
Sub Scenario 1: Current situation – BAU
Sub Scenario 2: Heathrow is closed. Thames Estuary Airport is in use.
Scenario 2: A forecast of the future passenger demand
Findings and Analysis
Figures
Maps
Conclusions
Contents

3. Aim and Objectives
The main aim of this dissertation is to develop a strategic modelling tool to assess the
provision of additional airport capacity in Britain.
• Particular focus on London and South East
• Using the Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium’s Transport Demand
and Capacity Assessment (ITRC) model
Objectives
• To review the work of the Airport Commission and the related literature
• To review work on modelling the demand for and supply of airport infrastructure
• To adapt the ITRC model so as to incorporate cross effects between airports
Introduction

4. Making best use of existing capacity
Literature Review
Short term measures
• Congestion charge scheme
• Early morning smoothing
Medium term measures
• The introduction of mixed mode operations at Heathrow
• The removal of planning restrictions on runway operations
Long term measures
London Heathrow London Gatwick

5. Demand modelling literature review
Categories of passenger preference models:
• the standard Nested Logit (NL) model
• the Cross-Nested Logit (CNL) model
• the multinomial logit (MNL) model
• mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model
According to Hess and Polak the CNL models are more suitable for airport choice
analysis and forecasting.
• They allow the researchers to analyse the correlation between multiple choice
parameters such as the access times, the type of the airport, the level of service
and the frequency of the flights.
In this study a Deterministic All-or-Nothing assignment has been used.
Methodology

6. Description of the selected methodology
• First Scenario: Determination of passenger demand for each zone of the system
Sub Scenario 1: Current situation - BAU
• The South-East region is divided into 55 zones
• A centroid is defined in each zone (usually a Tube or Railway station)
• Journey times from each centroid to each airport are calculated (road + rail)
• Each zone is assigned to its nearest (in terms of journey time) airport
• The attractiveness of each zone is calculated by an attraction model
Methodology
• Aij= (Pj/Fdij) * Pi
Where:
Aij: total attraction for each zone
Pj: population of each zone
Fdij: deterrence function (an expression of the generalised journey time)
Pi: passengers per airport
• The total attractiveness of each airport is calculated (the sum of the attractiveness
of every zone in the catchment area of specific airport)
• The final number of Passengers per zone is calculated using:
• Passengers (Zone A) = Zone A Attractiveness / Total Airport Attractiveness
Sub Scenario 2: Heathrow is closed. Thames Estuary Airport is in use.
• Same methodology as with Sub Scenario 1, except:
• PassZ1 NEW = PassZ1OLD * (Az1 NEW / AZ1 OLD)

7. Description of the selected methodology
• Second Scenario: A forecast of the future passenger demand for the 6 airports and
how excess demand affects the system
• It uses the number of passengers that have been assigned to specific zones in the First
Methodology
Scenario/ Sub Scenario 1.
• A formula is used in order to forecast future demand.
• Pass NEW = Pass OLD * (Popt+1 / Popt)^np * (GVAt+1 / GVAt)^nGVA * (Fct+1 / Fct)^nF
Popt+1 : is the population of the zone for the year t+1
Popt : is the population of the zone for the year t
np : is the population elasticity in respect of population growth
GVAt+1 : is the GVA of the zone for the year t+1
GVAt : is the GVA of the zone for the year t
nGVA : is the GVA elasticity in respect of population growth
Fct+1 : is the fuel cost for the year t+1
Fct : is the fuel cost for the year t
nFc : is the fuel cost elasticity in respect of population growth
Pass OLD : is the previous number of passengers at the year t
Pass NEW : is the new number of passengers at the year t+1
• The overall passenger capacity of each airport is known.
• If: Passenger Demand < Airport Passenger Capacity Then OK
• If: Passenger Demand > Airport Passenger Capacity Then
• The nearest zone that belongs to the congested airport is transferred to the catchment area
of the nearest uncongested airport.
• The procedure is repeated until all airports of the system reach their capacity.

8. 1st Scenario Analysis
1st Sub Scenario
Findings and Analysis

9. 1st Scenario Analysis
1st Sub Scenario
Passenger Capacity and Total Number of
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
GATWICK HEATHROW LONDON CITY LUTON SOUTHEND STANSTED
Passenger Spare Capacity - 2013
25,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
15,000,000.00
10,000,000.00
5,000,000.00
Findings and Analysis
Passengers (2013)
Airport Capacity (Passengers) Total Number of Passengers - 2013
0.00

10. 1st Scenario Analysis
2nd Sub Scenario
Findings and Analysis

11. 1st Scenario Analysis
2nd Sub Scenario
Findings and Analysis

12. 2nd Scenario Analysis
A forecast of the future passenger demand. A calculation example.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016
GATWICK 11,071,452 9,385,353 8,044,336 6,588,895 6,588,895 6,588,895
HEATHROW 22,668,310 19,970,596 17,195,289 14,296,625 14,296,625 14,296,625
LONDON CITY 1,180,247 1,078,913 999,018 917,950 -61,232 114,918
LUTON 806,513 410,674 131,226 -166,788 812,394 636,244
SOUTHEND 9,530,088 9,478,273 9,437,575 9,398,619 9,398,619 9,398,619
STANSTED 17,151,129 16,324,140 15,579,290 14,828,604 14,828,604 14,828,604
• 2016: London Luton exceed its capacity by 166,788 passengers.
• ‘Enfield’ was transferred from London Luton -> London City
• Passenger numbers are recalculated
• Now London City has a capacity problem.
• ‘Camden’ was transferred from London City -> London Luton
Some years are written two or three times due to the capacity constraints and
zone transfers
2024 is the year that all the airports of the system have reached their passenger
capacity.
Findings and Analysis

13. 2nd Scenario Analysis
Findings and Analysis
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
Passenger Demand per Airport
GATWICK HEATHROW LONDON CITY
LUTON SOUTHEND STANSTED
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
-5,000,000
-10,000,000
Spare Capacity
GATWICK HEATHROW LONDON CITY
LUTON SOUTHEND STANSTED

14. Modelling Conclusions
• Secondary data were used in all modelling calculations. A better approach
includes the usage of primary data from passenger preference surveys.
• GVA, Fuel prices and Population show an upward trend in the future.
First Scenario
First Sub Scenario
• The west zones have the greatest demand per zone.
Second Sub Scenario
• Compared with the First Sub Scenario:
• More passenger demand in the East zones and less in the West zones.
• There is an overall passenger demand reduction of 23%
Second Scenario
• The system is running normally up to 2015.
• The first overcapacity problems start in 2016.
• In 2021 London City and London Luton are practically full.
• The whole system is considered full in 2024.
Conclusions

15. Thank you for your attention.
Questions?