ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS Ismaël FOFANA IFPRI - Africa Region

1. ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION
OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS
Ismaël FOFANA
IFPRI - Africa Region
1/17

2. Overarching goals and targets
• Poverty and hunger
• Agricultural productivity and growth
• Agriculture expenditure
Thematic goals and targets
• Inclusive growth and value chain development
• Intra-Africa trade of agricultural commodities
• Nutrition and food security
• Gender
• Climate smart agriculture and resilience
• Mutual accountability
Malabo Overarching and Thematic Areas2/17

3. Experts Group
220 local experts mobilized
Task Force
20 International experts to provide
backstopping support to experts
Contribution to elaborate a Toolkit
o Clarify metrics and data needs;
o define methodologies
o Specify core program components
60 days of workshop implemented
Resources for NAIPs 2.0 Evidence-Based Planning3/17

4. Objectives of NAIPs Analytical Support
Produce evidences to inform and guide the design
of the NAIPs
 Create coherence among multiple Malabo goals
and targets
 Set the milestones to facilitate the tracking of
future progress
 Translate the overarching goals into actionable
results and targets
 Facilitate the prioritization of public investments
4/17

5. Stepwise Analytical Support to the Design of NAIPs 2.0
Step 1
Malabo Agenda
Domestication
Step 2
Country
Status and
Profile
Step 3
Prospects for
Agricultural
Development
5/17

6. Microeconomic Analysis
• Malabo poverty reduction goal
and target (-50%)
• Malabo hunger elimination goal
and target (-95%)
• Income growth
• Income inequality reduction
• Food consumption expenditure
Economywide Analysis
• Income growth
• Income inequality reduction
• Food consumption expenditure
• Efficiency improvement
• Technological gap reduction
• Malabo post-production losses goal and target
(-50%)
• Malabo intra-Africa trade goal and target
(200%)
• Malabo accelerated agricultural growth goal
and target (6%)
• Malabo agricultural public investments goal
and target (10%)
Productivity Analysis
• Malabo productivity increase
goal and target (100%)
• Efficiency improvement
• Technological gap reduction
An Integrated Analytical Framework to Address Multiple Malabo Goals and Milestones6/17

7. Analytical Support Deliverables
Status Assessment & Profile report
- Stocktake of Country Status
- Appraisal of NAIP 1.0
Malabo Goals & Milestones report
- Set goals and milestones
- Prioritize investment areas
- Identify strategic commodities
Policies & Program Opportunities report
- Most effective program interventions and public policies
7/17

8. Deliverables of the Analytical Support (cont.)
Results Framework Development
8/17

9. Stakeholders Engagement Mechanism and Process
CAADP/Malabo
Domestication
Event
NAIP Strategic
Planning Event
Other NAIP
Convening
Events
9/17

10. Progress and Plan
Stage Central Eastern Northern Southern West All
Completed
Kenya
Rwanda
Tanzania
Malawi
Benin, Burkina Faso,
Cabo Verde, Gambia,
Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-
Bissau, Cote d’Ivoire,
Liberia, Mali, Niger,
Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra
Leone, Togo
19
Ongoing
Ethiopia
Uganda
Mozambique
Seychelles
4
Starting
Angola
Gabon
Morocco
Tunisia
Botswana
Swaziland
Namibia
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Lesotho
9
All 2 5 2 9 15 33
Not started 7 7 5 3 0 22
10/17

11. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study
1. Accelerate Income Growth and Inequality Reduction to Halve Poverty between 2015-2025
2.5%
-0.7%
3.5%
-1.3%
Income Growth Inequality
Reduction
BaU
Malabo
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
BaU
Malabo
Poverty Headcount Index, Percent Change 2015-2025 Income Growth and Inequality
Reduction, Average Annual Change
2015-2025
Malabo Target
11/17

12. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.)
2. Rural-focused Income Growth Strategy to Halve Poverty between 2015-2025
Poverty Headcount Index, Business as Usual
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Rural
Urban
Malabo Target
12/17

13. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.)
3. Combine Income Growth Strategy and Social Assistance to End Hunger by 2025
Hunger Index, under Various Scenarios
Social Assistance Coverage
• 7 million individuals
11% total population
• Ksh 20 Billion
1% Government Budget 2015
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
BaU
Growth Strategy
Growth Strategy
+ Social AssistanceMalabo Target
13/17

14. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.)
4. Rural-focused Social Assistance to End Hunger by 2025
Hunger Index, Rural, Urban and National (%)
1 1
21
5
13
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Income Growth Income Growth + Social Assitance
Urban
Rural
National
14/17

15. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.)
5. Agriculture gives the best value for money
Growth and Poverty Impact of a Marginal Allocation of Public Investments (%)
15/17

16. Key Lessons Learned from the Kenyan Case Study (cont.)
6. Agricultural-led Growth to Achieve the Malabo Commitments and Goals
GDP Growth, Average Annual Variation (%)
16/17

17. ANALYTICAL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2ND GENERATION
OF NAIPS: STATUS AND PROGRESS
17/17