Unemployment has a statistically significant negative impact on Ethiopia's economic growth. The study used annual time series data from 1974-2014 and empirical analysis methods like Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction to examine the relationship. The results indicate that a 1% increase in unemployment leads to about a 0.82% decline in real GDP growth. To reduce this impact, the study recommends adopting more employment generation policies, improving labor productivity and agricultural productivity, and increasing linkages between sectors.
This document discusses the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. It finds that a persistently high unemployment rate remains a concern for Congress. While the unemployment rate has declined since peaking in 2009 and 2010, it remains elevated by historical standards. The key driver of unemployment over the long run is the rate of economic growth compared to potential growth. For unemployment to significantly decline, growth needs to outpace the combined growth of the labor force and productivity. Recent recoveries, including from the 2007-2009 recession, have seen slow declines in unemployment, described as "jobless recoveries."
Using Granger Causality to Examine the Relationship Between Economic Growth a...inventionjournals
This study refers to Okun's Law on the economy in North Sumatera Province. Difference with previous studies, in this study the data used is not aggregate data but the data of each economic sector. In addition, the unemployment variable is proxy with the absorption of labor rate. The data analysis was tested by Granger Causality to determine the direction of the relationship between variables for growth of each economic sectors and absorption of labor. By using the Granger Causality Test analysis we concluded that the agricultural sector has a two-way direction relationship between economic growth and absorption of labor. Mining and Quarrying sector, construction sector, transport and communication sector and services sector only have one-way direction relationship from absorption of labor to economic growth. Electricity, gas and water supply have one-way direction relationship from economic growth to absorption of labor. Three other sectors are sectors manufacturing industry sector; trade, hotel and restaurant sector and finance, real estate and business service have no relationship at all between economic growth and absorption of labor.
The document summarizes key aspects of Boston's economy in 2015, including:
- Total employment in Boston reached its highest level in recent decades and unemployment fell to its pre-recession level in early 2015.
- The three industries with the largest employment growth since the recession were health care, professional services, and education.
- Boston's unemployment rate was lower than both the Massachusetts and US rates in 2014, reaching 5.3% for the year.
Economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional anal...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
11.economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional a...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
One of the most pressing problems facing the Kenyan economy is the high rates of unemployment,
which has been erratic over the past few years. To examine the existing relationship between unemployment and
economic growth, this paper employed Johansen Cointegration, error correction mechanism (ECM),
Unemployment has a statistically significant negative impact on Ethiopia's economic growth. The study used annual time series data from 1974-2014 and empirical analysis methods like Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction to examine the relationship. The results indicate that a 1% increase in unemployment leads to about a 0.82% decline in real GDP growth. To reduce this impact, the study recommends adopting more employment generation policies, improving labor productivity and agricultural productivity, and increasing linkages between sectors.
This document discusses the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. It finds that a persistently high unemployment rate remains a concern for Congress. While the unemployment rate has declined since peaking in 2009 and 2010, it remains elevated by historical standards. The key driver of unemployment over the long run is the rate of economic growth compared to potential growth. For unemployment to significantly decline, growth needs to outpace the combined growth of the labor force and productivity. Recent recoveries, including from the 2007-2009 recession, have seen slow declines in unemployment, described as "jobless recoveries."
Using Granger Causality to Examine the Relationship Between Economic Growth a...inventionjournals
This study refers to Okun's Law on the economy in North Sumatera Province. Difference with previous studies, in this study the data used is not aggregate data but the data of each economic sector. In addition, the unemployment variable is proxy with the absorption of labor rate. The data analysis was tested by Granger Causality to determine the direction of the relationship between variables for growth of each economic sectors and absorption of labor. By using the Granger Causality Test analysis we concluded that the agricultural sector has a two-way direction relationship between economic growth and absorption of labor. Mining and Quarrying sector, construction sector, transport and communication sector and services sector only have one-way direction relationship from absorption of labor to economic growth. Electricity, gas and water supply have one-way direction relationship from economic growth to absorption of labor. Three other sectors are sectors manufacturing industry sector; trade, hotel and restaurant sector and finance, real estate and business service have no relationship at all between economic growth and absorption of labor.
The document summarizes key aspects of Boston's economy in 2015, including:
- Total employment in Boston reached its highest level in recent decades and unemployment fell to its pre-recession level in early 2015.
- The three industries with the largest employment growth since the recession were health care, professional services, and education.
- Boston's unemployment rate was lower than both the Massachusetts and US rates in 2014, reaching 5.3% for the year.
Economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional anal...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
11.economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional a...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
One of the most pressing problems facing the Kenyan economy is the high rates of unemployment,
which has been erratic over the past few years. To examine the existing relationship between unemployment and
economic growth, this paper employed Johansen Cointegration, error correction mechanism (ECM),
6 the economic implications of monetization 60-71Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the economic implications of monetization policy in Nigeria. Some key points:
1) Monetization policy in Nigeria involves converting fringe benefits that were previously provided to public servants in-kind, such as housing and vehicles, into cash payments. This was intended to reduce government spending and corruption.
2) However, the costs of running the government continued to escalate after monetization. There are also questions around whether the policy has been effectively implemented long-term.
3) The study uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between monetization and GDP in Nigeria, finding a significant but negative relationship. This suggests monetization has not achieved its goals of improving economic
Statistical Analysis of Interrelationship between Money Supply Exchange Rates...Atif Ahmed
Several researches have been conducted to study the impact of different macro-economic variables and their influence on government expenditure. By using different statistical tools researchers have examined that how money supply and exchange rate influence the government expenditure. Few other studies also conducted work on the quarterly time series data to examine the long run equilibrium association between the macroeconomic variables.
Impact of macroeconomic variables on government budget deficit in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and government budget deficits in Nigeria from 1981 to 2010. It finds that real GDP, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, government budget deficit, and gross investment are cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. However, there is no statistical significance between budget deficits and economic growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends improving economic and political institutions to enhance policymaking, fully implementing fiscal responsibility acts to reduce leakage, and decreasing corruption to achieve fiscal responsibility.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
The document contains lecture notes from Economics 100B taught by Professor Steven Wood at UC Berkeley on 08/23/2012. The notes cover several topics:
- The US economic recovery from the 2008 recession has been slow compared to previous recoveries, and there are ongoing issues like high unemployment, the upcoming "fiscal cliff", and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
- The course will examine macroeconomic challenges facing the US and other countries, and evaluate the potential outcomes of different economic policies.
- Key macroeconomic indicators like real GDP, unemployment, and inflation will be discussed in-depth, as well as factors that influence their levels such as recessions, government spending, and monetary policy.
- The
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
This paper develops a forward-looking indicator for macroeconomic uncertainty that employers are confronted with when they take decisions about the size of their workforce. The model that provides the basis for this uncertainty indicator interprets hires and lay-offs of workers as an investment into projects with uncertain return. Employers decide when to undertake this investment. Uncertainty can then be derived as a function of a labour productivity threshold above which it is profitable for employers to hire workers. The measure that is first theoretically derived is then taken to the data. Economy-wide uncertainty for G7 economies and uncertainty by economic sector for the United States are calculated from data on hiring demand and unit labour costs. The resulting quarterly time series demonstrate that in most economies hiring uncertainty went up at the onset of the Great Recession and has remained at an elevated level since then. A panel VAR analysis reveals that hiring uncertainty excercises a significant, economically sizeable and persistent effect on both the output gap and unemployment.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consists of consumer spending, investment expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all-inclusive picture of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index. It is used as an indicator for most governments and economic decision-makers for planning and policy formulation. In case of GDP, each component is given the weight of its relative price. GDP helps the investors to manage their portfolios by providing them with guidance about the state of the economy. Calculation of GDP provides with the general health of the economy. A negative GDP growth portrays bad signals for the economy. When the economy is expanding, the GDP growth rate is positive. If it's growing, so will businesses, jobs and personal income. If the GDP growth rate turns negative, then the country's economy is in a recession. It is not a measure of the overall standard of living or well-being of a country. Although changes in the output of goods and services per person (GDP per capita) are often used as a measure of whether the average citizen in a country is better or worse off, it does not capture things that may be deemed important to general well-being. Without an increase in GDP, there are always going to be limitations to economic development.
Degree of economic_freedom_and_relationship_to_economic_growthAnochi.com.
Freedom is an intrinsic element of the life of every person, yet is often noticed only
in the event that attempts are made at limiting it. It is possible today to select many
areas in which it is more or less consciously diminished. One of these is the field of
economic freedom, which may be reduced through bureaucracy for example, as well as
through various forms of concession. The means of preventing this particular
weakening of the development of an economy may be a gradual liberalization of it.
Individuals aspire to gain happiness through the fulfillment of their needs, assistance
in which may be provided by an increase in income. Economic growth triggers an
increase in the income of individuals, but is also equated with an increase in access to
such goods as better medical care or education. On account of this it becomes vital to
investigate the influence of the liberalization of an economy on economic growth
Unemployment problem in Bangladesh Tourism economics Fazlea Allahie
The document discusses unemployment in Bangladesh. It identifies several key causes of unemployment in Bangladesh, including overpopulation, underdeveloped natural resources and industry, lack of vocational training, and a defective educational system. Unemployment has many negative effects on Bangladesh, including increased crime, drug use, economic depression, and the country falling behind in development. Unemployment is a major problem in Bangladesh, with the unemployment rate exceeding 25% of the population.
Government expenditure is a very instrumental demand tool in achieving economic stability and policy makers frequently use it to influence certain economic outcomes. Government expenditure majorly consists of two components: investment and consumption components. Many researchers concede that higher level of government consumption expenditure is growth retarding and therefore undesirable. The aim of this paper was to establish the economic determinants of government consumption expenditure in Kenya. The results showed that in the long-run, while 1USD increase in GDP causes USD1.3 increase in government consumption expenditure, a unit increase in inflation rate would cause USD1.8 increase in consumption expenditure. However, 1USD increase in foreign direct investment and external debt stock causes, respectively, USD 0.07 and USD 2.6 drop in government consumption expenditure. Corruption, democracy and political instability have positive effects on government consumption expenditure in Kenya. Urbanization and population dynamics jointly affect the variable in the short-run. This paper recommends that the government should strengthen its institutions that are mandated to deal with graft cases, create peaceful political setting at all times and ensure a friendly environment to foreign investors.
The document discusses different aspects of unemployment, including definitions of key terms like the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate. It provides historical unemployment rate data for the US and other countries. It also examines different types of unemployment like seasonal, frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. Reasons for unemployment and impacts on individuals are explored.
Rakip Bebo provides a macroeconomic forecast for the US economy in 2015. Based on analysis from multiple sources, Bebo predicts that GDP growth will be 3% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4 of 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.3% in both quarters. While the economy is improving, productivity and labor force participation remain sluggish. Underemployment, especially among young college graduates, also poses a problem. Wage growth has been slow to recover despite falling unemployment, restraining consumer spending and full economic capacity.
This document discusses unemployment and its impact on the economy. It defines unemployment as people who are able and willing to work but cannot find employment. There are two main types of unemployment discussed: frictional unemployment which occurs due to imperfect information in the job market, and demand-deficient unemployment which occurs when there is a fall in aggregate demand. The document also examines unemployment rates among youth aged 15-24 and older workers aged 55-64 from 1995-2005 in Australia, finding that youth unemployment fell significantly while older worker unemployment also declined in 2005.
A Robust Model for Thegrowth of the Nigerian Populationiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Mathematics(IOSR-JM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of mathemetics and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications in mathematics. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators under President Trump such as jobs, wages, GDP growth, budget deficits, trade, and other measures. It notes that monthly job growth has been similar under Trump and Obama, while real wage growth has slowed and real GDP growth exceeded 4% in the second quarter of 2018 due to tax cuts and spending increases but is projected to decline. It also discusses the increased budget deficits and debt resulting from the Trump tax cuts.
Recent Specifications in Labor Unemployment in Sri LankaSanath Dasanayaka
mainly, this report examines on the current labor unemployment situation in Sri Lanka, reasons for labor unemployment, the government of Sri Lanka's actions for reducing unemployment and suggestions for bringing unemployment down in detail.
11.macroeconomics and health the way forward in the who african regionAlexander Decker
- The document analyzes the relationship between health outcomes (life expectancy, mortality rates) and economic outcomes (per capita gross national income) in countries in the WHO African Region.
- Four regression equations were estimated using data from 46 countries, with the dependent variable being the log of per capita GNI and independent variables including the log of life expectancy, under-5 mortality rate, adult mortality rate, and adult literacy rate.
- The results showed a statistically significant positive correlation between per capita GNI and life expectancy, and a statistically significant negative correlation between per capita GNI and under-5 mortality and adult mortality rates. This implies that improved health outcomes can positively impact economic prospects in African countries.
Socio political instability and foreign direct investments in ghana an ardl ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of socio-political instability during national election periods in Ghana on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The study uses an autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach to analyze quarterly data from 1992 to 2010, during which Ghana had five national elections. The results indicate that socio-political instability exerts a negative influence on FDI inflows in both the short- and long-run. The paper concludes that Ghana needs to limit tensions during election periods in order to maintain competitiveness as an FDI destination in West Africa and globally.
The main focus of this study is to investigate the impact of expansion in economic growth on
government expenditure in Nigeria covering the periods 1970 to 2012. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was
used as a proxy for economic growth, and the GDP time series was decomposed using the partial sum approach
in order to achieve asymmetry in the variable. The asymmetric ARDL estimation technique was appropriately
employed in this study. The findings of this study revealed that expansion in economic growth has significant
impact on government expenditure in Nigeria. The study further provided evidence of long-run causality from
boom/expansion in economic growth to government expenditure in Nigeria but could not support any evidence
of short-run causality. The researcher recommended among others, that Governments in Nigeria should give
more impetus to policies that will guarantee sustainable economic growth.
6 the economic implications of monetization 60-71Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the economic implications of monetization policy in Nigeria. Some key points:
1) Monetization policy in Nigeria involves converting fringe benefits that were previously provided to public servants in-kind, such as housing and vehicles, into cash payments. This was intended to reduce government spending and corruption.
2) However, the costs of running the government continued to escalate after monetization. There are also questions around whether the policy has been effectively implemented long-term.
3) The study uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between monetization and GDP in Nigeria, finding a significant but negative relationship. This suggests monetization has not achieved its goals of improving economic
Statistical Analysis of Interrelationship between Money Supply Exchange Rates...Atif Ahmed
Several researches have been conducted to study the impact of different macro-economic variables and their influence on government expenditure. By using different statistical tools researchers have examined that how money supply and exchange rate influence the government expenditure. Few other studies also conducted work on the quarterly time series data to examine the long run equilibrium association between the macroeconomic variables.
Impact of macroeconomic variables on government budget deficit in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and government budget deficits in Nigeria from 1981 to 2010. It finds that real GDP, inflation, exchange rate, interest rate, government budget deficit, and gross investment are cointegrated, indicating a long-run relationship. However, there is no statistical significance between budget deficits and economic growth in Nigeria. The paper recommends improving economic and political institutions to enhance policymaking, fully implementing fiscal responsibility acts to reduce leakage, and decreasing corruption to achieve fiscal responsibility.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
The document contains lecture notes from Economics 100B taught by Professor Steven Wood at UC Berkeley on 08/23/2012. The notes cover several topics:
- The US economic recovery from the 2008 recession has been slow compared to previous recoveries, and there are ongoing issues like high unemployment, the upcoming "fiscal cliff", and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies.
- The course will examine macroeconomic challenges facing the US and other countries, and evaluate the potential outcomes of different economic policies.
- Key macroeconomic indicators like real GDP, unemployment, and inflation will be discussed in-depth, as well as factors that influence their levels such as recessions, government spending, and monetary policy.
- The
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
This paper develops a forward-looking indicator for macroeconomic uncertainty that employers are confronted with when they take decisions about the size of their workforce. The model that provides the basis for this uncertainty indicator interprets hires and lay-offs of workers as an investment into projects with uncertain return. Employers decide when to undertake this investment. Uncertainty can then be derived as a function of a labour productivity threshold above which it is profitable for employers to hire workers. The measure that is first theoretically derived is then taken to the data. Economy-wide uncertainty for G7 economies and uncertainty by economic sector for the United States are calculated from data on hiring demand and unit labour costs. The resulting quarterly time series demonstrate that in most economies hiring uncertainty went up at the onset of the Great Recession and has remained at an elevated level since then. A panel VAR analysis reveals that hiring uncertainty excercises a significant, economically sizeable and persistent effect on both the output gap and unemployment.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consists of consumer spending, investment expenditure, government spending and net exports hence it portrays an all-inclusive picture of an economy because of which it provides an insight to investors which highlights the trend of the economy by comparing GDP levels as an index. It is used as an indicator for most governments and economic decision-makers for planning and policy formulation. In case of GDP, each component is given the weight of its relative price. GDP helps the investors to manage their portfolios by providing them with guidance about the state of the economy. Calculation of GDP provides with the general health of the economy. A negative GDP growth portrays bad signals for the economy. When the economy is expanding, the GDP growth rate is positive. If it's growing, so will businesses, jobs and personal income. If the GDP growth rate turns negative, then the country's economy is in a recession. It is not a measure of the overall standard of living or well-being of a country. Although changes in the output of goods and services per person (GDP per capita) are often used as a measure of whether the average citizen in a country is better or worse off, it does not capture things that may be deemed important to general well-being. Without an increase in GDP, there are always going to be limitations to economic development.
Degree of economic_freedom_and_relationship_to_economic_growthAnochi.com.
Freedom is an intrinsic element of the life of every person, yet is often noticed only
in the event that attempts are made at limiting it. It is possible today to select many
areas in which it is more or less consciously diminished. One of these is the field of
economic freedom, which may be reduced through bureaucracy for example, as well as
through various forms of concession. The means of preventing this particular
weakening of the development of an economy may be a gradual liberalization of it.
Individuals aspire to gain happiness through the fulfillment of their needs, assistance
in which may be provided by an increase in income. Economic growth triggers an
increase in the income of individuals, but is also equated with an increase in access to
such goods as better medical care or education. On account of this it becomes vital to
investigate the influence of the liberalization of an economy on economic growth
Unemployment problem in Bangladesh Tourism economics Fazlea Allahie
The document discusses unemployment in Bangladesh. It identifies several key causes of unemployment in Bangladesh, including overpopulation, underdeveloped natural resources and industry, lack of vocational training, and a defective educational system. Unemployment has many negative effects on Bangladesh, including increased crime, drug use, economic depression, and the country falling behind in development. Unemployment is a major problem in Bangladesh, with the unemployment rate exceeding 25% of the population.
Government expenditure is a very instrumental demand tool in achieving economic stability and policy makers frequently use it to influence certain economic outcomes. Government expenditure majorly consists of two components: investment and consumption components. Many researchers concede that higher level of government consumption expenditure is growth retarding and therefore undesirable. The aim of this paper was to establish the economic determinants of government consumption expenditure in Kenya. The results showed that in the long-run, while 1USD increase in GDP causes USD1.3 increase in government consumption expenditure, a unit increase in inflation rate would cause USD1.8 increase in consumption expenditure. However, 1USD increase in foreign direct investment and external debt stock causes, respectively, USD 0.07 and USD 2.6 drop in government consumption expenditure. Corruption, democracy and political instability have positive effects on government consumption expenditure in Kenya. Urbanization and population dynamics jointly affect the variable in the short-run. This paper recommends that the government should strengthen its institutions that are mandated to deal with graft cases, create peaceful political setting at all times and ensure a friendly environment to foreign investors.
The document discusses different aspects of unemployment, including definitions of key terms like the labor force participation rate and unemployment rate. It provides historical unemployment rate data for the US and other countries. It also examines different types of unemployment like seasonal, frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. Reasons for unemployment and impacts on individuals are explored.
Rakip Bebo provides a macroeconomic forecast for the US economy in 2015. Based on analysis from multiple sources, Bebo predicts that GDP growth will be 3% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4 of 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.3% in both quarters. While the economy is improving, productivity and labor force participation remain sluggish. Underemployment, especially among young college graduates, also poses a problem. Wage growth has been slow to recover despite falling unemployment, restraining consumer spending and full economic capacity.
This document discusses unemployment and its impact on the economy. It defines unemployment as people who are able and willing to work but cannot find employment. There are two main types of unemployment discussed: frictional unemployment which occurs due to imperfect information in the job market, and demand-deficient unemployment which occurs when there is a fall in aggregate demand. The document also examines unemployment rates among youth aged 15-24 and older workers aged 55-64 from 1995-2005 in Australia, finding that youth unemployment fell significantly while older worker unemployment also declined in 2005.
A Robust Model for Thegrowth of the Nigerian Populationiosrjce
IOSR Journal of Mathematics(IOSR-JM) is a double blind peer reviewed International Journal that provides rapid publication (within a month) of articles in all areas of mathemetics and its applications. The journal welcomes publications of high quality papers on theoretical developments and practical applications in mathematics. Original research papers, state-of-the-art reviews, and high quality technical notes are invited for publications.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators under President Trump such as jobs, wages, GDP growth, budget deficits, trade, and other measures. It notes that monthly job growth has been similar under Trump and Obama, while real wage growth has slowed and real GDP growth exceeded 4% in the second quarter of 2018 due to tax cuts and spending increases but is projected to decline. It also discusses the increased budget deficits and debt resulting from the Trump tax cuts.
Recent Specifications in Labor Unemployment in Sri LankaSanath Dasanayaka
mainly, this report examines on the current labor unemployment situation in Sri Lanka, reasons for labor unemployment, the government of Sri Lanka's actions for reducing unemployment and suggestions for bringing unemployment down in detail.
11.macroeconomics and health the way forward in the who african regionAlexander Decker
- The document analyzes the relationship between health outcomes (life expectancy, mortality rates) and economic outcomes (per capita gross national income) in countries in the WHO African Region.
- Four regression equations were estimated using data from 46 countries, with the dependent variable being the log of per capita GNI and independent variables including the log of life expectancy, under-5 mortality rate, adult mortality rate, and adult literacy rate.
- The results showed a statistically significant positive correlation between per capita GNI and life expectancy, and a statistically significant negative correlation between per capita GNI and under-5 mortality and adult mortality rates. This implies that improved health outcomes can positively impact economic prospects in African countries.
Socio political instability and foreign direct investments in ghana an ardl ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of socio-political instability during national election periods in Ghana on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. The study uses an autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach to analyze quarterly data from 1992 to 2010, during which Ghana had five national elections. The results indicate that socio-political instability exerts a negative influence on FDI inflows in both the short- and long-run. The paper concludes that Ghana needs to limit tensions during election periods in order to maintain competitiveness as an FDI destination in West Africa and globally.
The main focus of this study is to investigate the impact of expansion in economic growth on
government expenditure in Nigeria covering the periods 1970 to 2012. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was
used as a proxy for economic growth, and the GDP time series was decomposed using the partial sum approach
in order to achieve asymmetry in the variable. The asymmetric ARDL estimation technique was appropriately
employed in this study. The findings of this study revealed that expansion in economic growth has significant
impact on government expenditure in Nigeria. The study further provided evidence of long-run causality from
boom/expansion in economic growth to government expenditure in Nigeria but could not support any evidence
of short-run causality. The researcher recommended among others, that Governments in Nigeria should give
more impetus to policies that will guarantee sustainable economic growth.
The impact of the international price index on vietnam stock marketNghiên Cứu Định Lượng
- The document analyzes the impact of international price indices like gold, crude oil, and the S&P 500 market value (SP500) on Vietnam's stock market index (VNINDEX) from 2008 to 2013 using GJR-GARCH and ARDL models.
- The results show that SP500 has an immediate positive impact on VNINDEX, while lagged values of VNINDEX, crude oil prices, and SP500 also positively impact VNINDEX.
- The GJR-GARCH model found that positive and negative shocks to the market have similar effects on the variance of VNINDEX.
Revisiting the link between government spending and economic growth in the pr...iosrjce
This paper aims to revisit the link between government spending and economic growth in the present
of Wagner’s Law in Nigeria from 1972-2011. The examination is based on the functional form of Wagner Law
augmented by incorporating the square of GDP. We employed ARDL bound testing, combine cointegration and
Toda-Yamamoto non- Granger causality test in this study. Cointegration was found in both methods, and the
causality test supports the presence of Wagner’ Law. However, increase in GDP (i.e. Square of GDP) has an
adverse impact on economic growth. This shows that GDP as a proxy for economic growth has a certain point
from which, any additional increase will reduce government spending. Therefore, the government needs to come
up with programs that will motivate small and medium enterprises at all levels of government. Hence, the
increase in GDP in the long run, tend to reduce government expenditure, which in turn prevents deficit
financing
Demand for money in hungary an ardl approach by nikolaos dritsakisBalaji Bathmanaban
This study examines the demand for money in Hungary using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010 within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework. The results of the bounds test confirm a stable, long-run relationship between M1 real monetary aggregate, real income, inflation rate, and nominal exchange rate. Specifically, real income has a positive impact on money demand while inflation and exchange rates have negative impacts. Stability tests also reveal a stable money demand function over the period examined, indicating M1 is a suitable intermediate target for monetary policy in Hungary.
This summary provides an overview of the document:
1) The document investigates the impact of monetary policy rate, interbank rate, and savings deposit on inflation rate in Nigeria from 2006-2014 using an autoregressive distributed lag model.
2) The results of the long-run model show that monetary policy rate, interbank rate, and savings deposit were all negatively and significantly affecting inflation rate during the period studied.
3) In the short-run, monetary policy rate and interbank rates were found to negatively and significantly determine inflation fluctuations, while savings deposit had a positive but insignificant impact.
Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in Nigeriaiosrjce
The study assessed the impact of financial development on economic growth in Nigeria using time
series data from 1970 to 2012. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach to cointegration
was utilized for this study. The result from the ARDL model indicate that the variables for this study are
cointegrated while the error correction term appeared significant and confirms that short-run disequilibria are
corrected up to about 50 percent annually. The empirical results reveals that financial development exerts
positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long-run while trade liberalization variables exert
negative impact on economic growth in the long-run indicating non-competitive nature of non-oil domestic
products in the international market. In the short-run, domestic credit is insignificant which indicates a dearth
of investible funds in the economy. There is evidence that financial development policies influence economic
growth in the long-run and not in the short-run. This study among others recommends the urgent need to
implement policies that will strengthen the deposit mobilization and intermediation efforts in the banking system
in other to deepen the financial system. Nigerian trade performance should be improved through economic
diversification and further availability of funds to private sector at competitive interest rate in order to produce
internationally competitive products.
Financial Liberalisation and Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Analysisiosrjce
This document summarizes a study that empirically examines the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981-2012. It begins by providing background on Nigeria's financial system and the gradual process of financial liberalization that began in 1986 and included deregulating interest rates and opening the banking sector to more private competition. The study uses three measures of financial liberalization - an index of financial openness, money supply as a share of GDP, and private sector credit as a share of GDP - to analyze the long-run and short-run relationship with economic growth. The results suggest there is a positive long-run equilibrium relationship between financial liberalization and growth, supporting the view that financial liberalization contributed to financial development and economic
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Unemployment in Nigeria has reached socially unacceptable levels, especially among those with secondary education or higher. While difficult to measure precisely due to the large informal economy, data shows unemployment is highest among secondary and post-secondary educated individuals both in urban and rural areas. With rapid urbanization outpacing growth in secondary industries, urban unemployment could rise dramatically without interventions to boost rural development or job growth.
The document discusses different measures of unemployment and labor force participation rates in the United States. It defines key terms like the civilian labor force, unemployment rate, discouraged workers, and alternative unemployment measures. Some key statistics mentioned are that the overall unemployment rate in December 2010 was 9.4% and the U-6 alternative unemployment rate, which includes marginally attached and underemployed workers, was 16.7% in December 2010. The document also discusses the concept of full employment and the natural rate of unemployment.
Graduate unemployment in nigeria entrepreneurship and venture capital nexusAlexander Decker
This document discusses graduate unemployment in Nigeria and proposes ways to address it through entrepreneurship and venture capital. It begins by outlining the high rates of unemployment in Nigeria, including graduate unemployment which accounts for 32% of total unemployment. It then advocates for establishing a venture capital bank to provide loans to unemployed graduates with business ideas to encourage entrepreneurship. Finally, it recommends that universities update their curricula to reflect employer needs and that the government improve infrastructure to support private sector growth and job creation.
This document discusses unemployment in India. It defines unemployment as when capable and willing workers cannot find employment. It then provides the unemployment rate formula. Some of the main causes of unemployment mentioned are jobless growth, lack of employment opportunities, and seasonal employment. Unemployment is classified as rural or urban. Rural unemployment includes hidden/disguised unemployment, where excess family labor is used but not paid, and seasonal unemployment when occupations are not in demand at certain times. Urban unemployment includes cyclical unemployment related to business cycles, frictional unemployment as workers transition between jobs, and structural unemployment when qualifications do not match job requirements. Solutions proposed to address unemployment include changing investment patterns, encouraging small enterprises, and reorienting education policies.
Good Communication Promotes Positive Feedback On Ebaytouchdown777a
Good communication is key to receiving positive feedback on eBay. It helps prevent misunderstandings by clearly outlining details like shipping timeframes and policies. Prompt email responses reassure customers and demonstrate good service. Encouraging buyers to ask questions can clarify any potential issues upfront. Asking buyers to leave feedback first may discourage negative reviews, as they know the seller will respond in kind. Under rare circumstances, eBay may reverse unjust negative feedback, but mutual withdrawal where both parties agree is more common for removing such reviews. Overall, good communication promotes positive feedback and avoids negative feedback on eBay auctions.
This document defines unemployment and discusses its various types. It begins by defining unemployment as unwanted job losses or willing workers without jobs. It then lists the main causes of unemployment as rapid population growth, economic recession, changing technology, and illiteracy. The document classifies unemployment as voluntary or involuntary and describes the main types of unemployment as seasonal, cyclical, technical, frictional, structural, and disguised. Specific examples are provided to illustrate each type of unemployment.
The document discusses several topics related to unemployment in the United States including:
1. Current unemployment rates and numbers of employed and unemployed individuals.
2. How the value of salaries has changed over time once adjusted for inflation.
3. The three main types of unemployment: frictional, structural, and cyclical.
4. Shifting employment numbers across different occupations throughout the 20th century.
The document discusses unemployment, defining it as a situation where capable and willing workers cannot find employment. It outlines the main types of unemployment including frictional, structural, cyclical, and seasonal unemployment. Causes of unemployment mentioned include population growth, lack of opportunities, seasonal factors, and slow industry development. Costs are described at both individual and societal levels. Solutions proposed to address unemployment include changing investment patterns, supporting small businesses, and reorienting education policy.
Tackling youth unemployment in nigeriaSotonye anga
Youths in Nigeria constitute more than 50% of the nation's population and 0ver 70% of youth population are unemployed. How do we create jobs for them? this is what this presentation attempts to address.
This document examines the impact of capital accumulation on labor productivity growth in Nigeria from 1970-2014. It finds that:
1) Education and health expenditures' impact on labor productivity growth depends on the time period, while health expenditures positively impact productivity and compensation to employees negatively impacts it.
2) Both physical and human capital accumulation in Nigeria have been volatile and generally low over the study period, constraining productivity and output growth.
3) The determinants of labor productivity growth examined include human capital accumulation, physical capital accumulation, real wages, and technology, based on endogenous growth and efficiency wage theories.
The study examines the factors underlying the jobless and wageless recovery in the Nigerian
economy. The study administered questionnaire to elicit information in randomly selected states in the six geopolitical
zones namely: Abuja, Bauchi,
This document is a student term paper on youth unemployment in Nigeria. It begins with an introduction discussing global unemployment trends and how some countries have effectively addressed it while others like Nigeria have struggled. It then covers various topics related to unemployment in Nigeria in detail over multiple sections, including: defining unemployment; categorizing types of unemployment; reviewing literature on causes and theories of unemployment; examining unemployment data and trends in Nigeria specifically among youth; implications of high youth unemployment such as increased crime; and factors contributing to unemployment in Nigeria like rapid population growth, low education standards, lack of infrastructure, corruption, and more. The paper aims to explore and analyze the issue of unemployment in Nigeria in great depth.
A parametric debate of value added tax, economic growth and poverty reduction...Alexander Decker
This study examines the relationship between Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue, economic growth, and poverty reduction in Nigeria using time series data from 1994-2012. Two regression models are used. The first finds that VAT revenue has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. The second finds that economic growth has a negative but insignificant impact on poverty reduction. The descriptive statistics show average annual growth rates for GDP, government revenue, VAT, capital expenditure, secondary school enrollment, poverty rate, and labor force. Correlation analysis indicates GDP, government revenue, VAT, and secondary school enrollment are positively correlated, while capital expenditure and poverty rate are negatively correlated with other variables.
1) Unemployment in South Africa is influenced by structural factors such as skill mismatches rather than economic conditions, with longer periods of unemployment decreasing employment chances.
2) Studies examine the relationship between unemployment, economic growth, and other factors in South Africa using methods like VAR, ARDL, and error correction models on quarterly and yearly time series data from 1994 to 2022.
3) The findings from these studies are mixed, with some indicating unemployment hinders economic growth while others find no significant effect, and recommendations focus on improving infrastructure, wages, and coordination between economic policies.
Brazil experienced solid economic growth from 2000-2015, driven initially by rising commodity prices and Chinese demand. However, growth has slowed recently due to declining commodity prices and a contracting economy. Key developments over this period include a significant reduction in poverty through social programs, rising wages that outpaced productivity growth, and challenges in transitioning to a more productive and competitive economy as population growth declines.
Inflation and Unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL- ApproachPremier Publishers
This study examines the effect of inflation on unemployment in Nigeria. Unemployment is a major problem in Nigeria, even with the growth rate of 7% within the study period, the problem is still on the increase. The study uses the period 1977 to 2011 in analyzing the long run impact of inflation on unemployment in Nigeria, based on the Phillips curve hypothesis, instead of relying on the traditional ballpark figure made by Nigerians. Real gross domestic product is also used as control variable. The study employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to test for bounds co-integration, the long run and the Error Correction Adjustment. The co-integration bound test showed that the variables are co-integrated. Our Findings validate the Phillips curve hypothesis as well, contradict the belief by Nigerians about the coexistence of unemployment and inflation in the country.
The document summarizes research on the relationship between economic growth and poverty in Nigeria. It finds that while Nigeria's GDP per capita grew by nearly 70% from 1992-2009, the poverty rate only declined by 6% over this period. Several factors are hypothesized to influence this relationship, including high income inequality, Nigeria's reliance on the oil sector for growth, high unemployment, corruption, and poor education and health outcomes. The growth elasticity of poverty in Nigeria is found to vary widely depending on the time period studied, suggesting economic growth has not consistently led to reductions in poverty.
- Real average wage growth globally has remained far below pre-crisis levels and turned negative in developed economies, although it remained significant in emerging economies.
- There are major geographic differences in wage growth trends, with wages suffering double-dips in developed economies but remaining positive in Latin America and Asia.
- A smaller share of national income is going to workers as falling labour shares have resulted in a gap between increasing productivity and stagnant wages, hurting household consumption and demand.
The document discusses increasing unemployment rates and reasons for unemployment. It notes private sector employment has been negative for 10 years, with 8 million jobs lost during the recession. Unemployment duration and rates are at record highs. Reducing unemployment will require stimulating all three engines of the economy - consumers, businesses, and government - as each are currently struggling. The document proposes a non-profit jobs program as a potential "fourth engine" to reduce unemployment.
Does economic growth reduce poverty in nigeria (2)Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between economic growth and poverty in Nigeria. The study uses econometric analysis of time series data from 1980 to 2008 to determine if there is a significant relationship between GDP growth rates and poverty levels in Nigeria. The empirical findings show a direct relationship, meaning that economic growth has not reduced poverty in Nigeria. This contradicts the theory that economic growth will trickle down to reduce poverty. The study suggests that policymakers need to ensure a more equitable distribution of national income and improve public services that support poverty reduction, such as education.
This paper explores how unemployment and self-employment impact the shadow economy during recessions and periods of economic growth using panel data from seven countries from 1999-2007. The paper finds that unemployment has a significant positive effect on the size of the shadow economy during recessions as unemployed individuals supplement their income through unreported work, but unemployment does not significantly impact the shadow economy during growth periods. Additionally, the paper finds that self-employment consistently has a statistically significant positive effect on the size of the shadow economy regardless of the economic cycle.
Global Wage Report 2014/15 - Wages and Income InequalityDr Lendy Spires
The 2014/15 edition examines the link between wages and inequality at the household level. It shows that wages constitute the largest single source of income for households with at least one member of working age in most countries and points to changes in wages and paid employment as key factors underlying recent trends in inequality. The report also considers wage gaps between certain groups, such as those between women and men, migrants and nationals, and workers in the informal and formal economy.
Inequality can be addressed through policies that affect wage distribution directly or indirectly, as well as through fiscal redistribution. However, increasing inequality in the labour market places a heavier burden on efforts to reduce inequality through taxes and transfers. The report thus emphasizes the need for combined policy action that includes minimum wages, strengthened collective bargaining, interventions to eliminate wage gaps, the promotion of paid employment and redistribution through taxes and transfers.
Análisis de la progresiva recuperación de los mercados internacionales de la perspectiva del empleo, la económica y el nivel de productividad de las empresas.
1) Japan has faced sluggish economic growth and declining potential growth over the past decades, which has left living standards below many other OECD countries. Public debt has risen to 226% of GDP while the population is shrinking.
2) Structural reforms are needed to boost growth, including increasing female labor participation, international trade engagement, private R&D investment, and improving productivity in services. Reforms are also required to reduce debt through fiscal consolidation and control of social spending.
3) Key policy recommendations include implementing Abenomics, reducing debt as the top priority, continuing monetary easing, boosting potential growth through structural reforms, and improving social programs through better targeting.
The impact of inflation, policy rate and government consumption expenditure o...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the impact of inflation, policy rate, and government consumption expenditure on GDP growth in Ghana from 1980-2010 using time series econometric analysis. The results show:
1) There is a positive long-run relationship between inflation and GDP growth as well as between the policy rate and GDP growth. However, government consumption expenditure has a negative long-run impact on GDP growth.
2) In the short-run, inflation and government consumption expenditure positively impact GDP growth, while the policy rate has an inverse relationship with GDP growth.
3) Of the three variables, only inflation has a statistically significant impact on real GDP growth in Ghana. The study recommends prudent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabil
unemployment in spain, causes and remedies .pptxMgirehBryan
Spain is faced with high unemployment rates since the 1980s. the country consistently ranks among the highest within the European Union with unemployment rate of 11.6% in the third quarter of 2023, which translates up to 2.77 million individuals , according to Statista. the uemployment rate average of the EU is 6.4%. The World bank indicates that the youth unemployment rate is at a concerning 27%. unemployment rates for individuals under 25 years old were above 50% in 2012, 2013, and 2014 but there has been significant decreases in this rates since 2017 where it was determined to be at around 35% (Verd et al., 2019). This prolonged period of elevated youth unemployment has had profound socio-economic repercussions, affecting not only the individuals directly impacted but also the broader economy and society as a whole.
socio-demographic characteristics and career trajectories contributes to this high unemployment rates in spain.
Unemployment and Its Determinants:A Study of Pakistan Economy (1999-2010)Muhammad Arslan
This study analyzed the determinants of unemployment in Pakistan from 1999-2010. It found that foreign direct investment, GDP growth, and inflation had negative relationships with unemployment, while population growth had a positive relationship. The model showed that 86% of changes in unemployment could be explained by these variables. It concluded that population growth is a key determinant of unemployment in Pakistan and recommended policies to attract FDI, control inflation, and reduce population growth to lower unemployment.
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Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have elevated levels of hormones like luteinizing hormone and testosterone, as well as higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance compared to healthy women. They also have increased levels of inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin. This study found these abnormalities in the hormones and inflammatory cytokines of women with PCOS ages 23-40, indicating that hormone imbalances associated with insulin resistance and elevated inflammatory markers may worsen infertility in women with PCOS.
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This document discusses a study that aimed to synthesize motivation theories into a universal model for managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was guided by Maslow and McGregor's theories. A sample of 303 marketing executives was used. The results showed that managers will be most effective at motivating marketing executives if they consider individual needs and create challenging but attainable goals. The emerged model suggests managers should provide job satisfaction by tailoring assignments to abilities and monitoring performance with feedback. This addresses confusion faced by Nigerian bank managers in determining effective motivation strategies.
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This document presents definitions and properties related to generalized D*-metric spaces and establishes some common fixed point theorems for contractive type mappings in these spaces. It begins by introducing D*-metric spaces and generalized D*-metric spaces, defines concepts like convergence and Cauchy sequences. It presents lemmas showing the uniqueness of limits in these spaces and the equivalence of different definitions of convergence. The goal of the paper is then stated as obtaining a unique common fixed point theorem for generalized D*-metric spaces.
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An analysis of the effect of real gross domestic product on unemployment in nigeria (an ardl- approach)
1. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.5, No.14, 2014
7
An Analysis of the Effect of Real Gross Domestic Product on
Unemployment in Nigeria: (An ARDL- Approach)
Saad Buba, Suryati Ishak
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University Putra Malaysia
E-mail of corresponding author: Saadbubadamare12@gmail.com
Abstract
This study examined the effect of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on unemployment in Nigeria.
Unemployment is a major problem in Nigeria, even with the recent growth rate of 7% the country is recording,
unemployment is still on the increase. The study considers the period 1977 to 2011 to analyse the long run and
shot run relationship between real gross domestic product and unemployment in Nigeria, with unemployment as
a dependent variable. Besides the main variables for this study, other control variables particularly inflation was
included in the model. The study has used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to test for ARDL-
bound co-integration test, the long run and the Error Correction Model (ECM). The co-integration bound test
results showed that the variables are co-integrated at 5% level. The results revealed a positive relationship
between unemployment and real GDP in Nigeria both in the short run and in the long run. The study concludes
that real GDP growth causes unemployment in Nigeria and suggests that Nigeria as a country should reduce the
over reliance on petroleum sector as a source of revenue and give more emphasis on other sectors, especially
agricultural sector in order to provide more job opportunities to the Nigerian citizens. Also, the government
should use the huge revenue it derives from the oil sector to develop other sectors like iron and steel sector,
agriculture and so on. The government should also provide environment that will attract capital and investment,
the government does not necessary create jobs but does aid the private sector in making job creation possible and
imminent.
Keywords: Real GDP, Unemployment, ARDL
1. Introduction
One of the determinants of a country’s standard of living is the amount of unemployment, it typically
experiences. People who are looking for work but cannot find it are not contributing to the economy’s
production of goods and services. Although some degree of unemployment is inevitable in a complex economy
with thousands of firms and millions of workers, when a country keeps its workers as fully employed as possible,
it achieves a higher level of GDP than it would if it lefts many of its workers standing idle. Losing a job can be
the most distressing economic event in a person’s life. Most people rely on labor earnings to maintain their
standard of living and also, many people get from their work not only income, but also a sense of personal
accomplishment. A job loss means lower living standard in the present, anxiety about the future and reduced
self- esteem.
However, there has been a relationship between real GDP and unemployment. Real Gross Domestic
Product (real GDP) is a macroeconomic measure of the value of economic output adjusted for price changes.
Economists always realize an inverse relationship between unemployment and real GDP. But according to
Gabrisch and Buscher (2006), “In the post communists’ countries, the growth of GDP is characterized by
productivity progress; however, the component of market demand is very low to decrease the rate of
unemployment to barest minimum level. Whenever economists looked at real GDP and unemployment, they
realize an inverse relationship between them. When real GDP is on the higher side, unemployment will be low
and the inverse is true as well. Problem is said to arise when the variables coexist in an economy. In Nigeria,
unemployment is increasing at a faster rate, real GDP is growing at 7%, CBN report (2012). In addition,
According to information from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); unemployment rate in 2011 is 29.3
percent. This implies that unemployment has multiplied since most recent five years. Unemployment in Yobe
state is 60.6 for percent, Kano state is 67 for percent and this is clear from the amount of youths in the wandering
the roads without employment. There is a serious issue when a nation is developing at seven for percent but
could not give employments to its natives. It is like a broken record; a nation that produces oil yet imports
refined fuel, a nation that is in the tomato belt but imports tomatoes.
If real GDP rate is below its natural rate it is intended to promote employment because this rise in total income
will generate inflationary pressures. On the other hand, if the real GDP is beyond its natural level, policy makers
will choose not to intensively promote the creation of new jobs in order to secure a sustainable growth rate which
will not generate inflation, Dumitrescu (2009). This is because the relationship between real GDP and
unemployment is pertinent or rather very important for policy makers in securing a sustainable increase in living
standards. The slope of unemployment in Okun’s law is around -0.5 and potential real GDP growth is around 5.7
percentage points and the variables are negatively correlated as predicted by the theory. In Nigeria previous
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Vol.5, No.14, 2014
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studies have not put emphasis on the relationship between real GDP and unemployment. This study have used
ARDL model and micro fit software to obtain high degree of freedom as the sample size for the study is small,
for example see Narayan (2005). This has made the work unique and distinct from previous studies.
Graph of Unemployment and Real GDP
Figure 1 above is a trend of real GDP and unemployment in Nigeria. The graph confirms the assertion mentioned
above that both real GDP and unemployment in Nigeria are increasing at the same time. The coexistence of the
two started around year 2000. The real GDP growth is 7% in recent years, but still unemployment persistently
failed to keep pace with the expansion of the real GDP. This might be due to some institutional problem such as
corruption, lack of good governance among others. According to Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), the
average government effectiveness in Nigeria between 1996 and 2011 is 14.4, World Bank report, (2013).
Similarly the average percentage for political stability and absence of violence, control of corruption and Rule of
law are 7.15%, 10.54% and 10.57% respectively.
This study starts with short demonstration of how unemployment related to real GDP in Nigeria. The second part
of the study provides the theoretical and empirical relation between unemployment and real GDP. Part three
discusses the data and methodology, results and discussion also in this part and the last part of the study is the
conclusion.
2. Literature Review
The relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate in the short run may be a loose one. One
reason that unemployment may not fall appreciably when economic growth first picks up after a recession’s end,
is that some firms may have underutilized employees on their payrolls. This is because laying off workers when
product demand declines and rehiring them when product demand improves has costs, Levine (2013). As long as
different sectors in the economy can contribute more than was lost from unemployment, the rate of
unemployment rises as real GDP rise. More so, as labour force growth is more rapid than employment growth,
this will also increase the level of unemployment and vice-versa, Gregory (2009), and Levine (2013).The slope
of unemployment in Okun’s law is around -0.5 and potential real GDP growth is around 5.7 percentage points
and the variables are negatively correlated as predicted by the theory. In the middle of the 1990s, the economy of
the United State enjoyed the benefits of both worlds. From 1992 and through to 2000, the unemployment rate of
civilian, fell from as high as 7.8% to as low as 3.8%.
In most of times, exactly since the middle of the 1990s, the level of unemployment was and at the rate below
many estimates of the natural rate, and this has led to many economistsbelieved that increase in the real GDP
was responsible for this, Cashell (2004). The experimental dissection on real GDP and unemployment in
Romania have indicated that an ascent of one percentage purpose of unemployment is connected with a decay of
harshly half percentage purpose of true GDP growth, Dumitrescu, (2010). Why you put the entire authors at the
end of sentence not at the beginning? Is it the format of the journal? Many articles and journals have found that
increase in real gross domestic product causes unemployment level to decrease, this means that real GDP growth
significantly reduces the high level of unemployment in an economy. For example, Wajid (2013), have found
that economic growth has a significant adverse effect on unemployment based on the study she conducted in
Pakistan. Additionally, Hany (2012), also has found a negative relationship between output growth and
unemployment in Egypt.
In the meantime, a study by Mossa (2008), has estimated Okun’s value of coefficient in Arabic speaking
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
UN RGDP
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Vol.5, No.14, 2014
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countries, which include Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. He found that the coefficient values in these
countries are -0.011, -0.001, -0.00009, and 0.001 respectively. The coefficient of Okun’s Law states that a 2%
increase in output corresponds to a 1% decline in the rate of cyclical unemployment; a 0.5% increase in labor
force participation; a 0.5% increase in hours worked per employee; and a 1% increase in output per hours
worked. Gordon (1984), revealed a short run and long run negative relationship between real GDP and
unemployment in the United States, with long run coefficient being greater than the Okun’s coefficient in the
long run. Sinclair (2009), has found an overall fluctuations as a result of permanent in the United States’
unemployment and output movement. In the post communists’ countries, the growth of GDP is characterized by
productivity progress; however, the component of market demand is very low to decrease the rate of
unemployment to barest minimum level, Gabrisch and Buscher (2006).
3.Methodology
This study have made use of the econometric processes and procedures in trying to estimate the long run and
short run relationship between the variables, Real Gross Domestic Product and unemployment in Nigeria, from
1977 to 2011. Data on the real GDP were collected from the World Bank, while the data on unemployment were
collected from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The study will use Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
Model and Cointegration Analysis to test for time series data with variables that are integrated either of order
zero I(0) or order one I(1), Pesaran et al. (2001). The model is used to test for cointegration, the long run and
short run relationship between real GDP and unemployment, by using micro fit software to be able get a high
degree of freedom.
Cointegration test
The co-integration relationship verifies the long run relationship among the variables of interest using F-statistics.
The ARDL co-integration test should be performed by transforming the model into unrestricted error correction
model (UECM). In the following co-integration model, Real Gross Domestic Product and inflation are
considered as independent variables while unemployment is a dependent variable:
∆ = + ∆ + ∆ + ∆ + +
+ ln +
Where, ln UN is log of unemployment, lnRGDP is log of real gross domestic product and ln IN is log of inflation,
is constant, , , are the parameters.
The null hypothesis (H0) is that: H0: = = = 0; there is no cointegration; the alternative hypothesis (H1)
is that: H1: ≠ ≠ ≠ 0; cointegration exists. This study has a small sample of thirty five (35), therefore
the F-statistics should be compared to the critical bounds suggested by Narayan (2005). If F-statistic> F-critical upper
bound of the Narayan table, we reject null, which means cointegration exist; if F-statistic< F-critical lower bound, there is no
cointegration, and if the F-statistic fall in-between the bounds, it is inconclusive. The maximum lags for this small
sample size according to Narayan (2005), is two (2).
Long run equation
=∝ + + + #
To calculate the long run coefficient, we use the Wald Coefficient test; ∑ / 1- ∑ ;
Error Correction Model (short run model):
∆ =∝ + + + ln + ⋂&'( +∈
Where: is the coefficient of&'(
ECM is the error correction term. It represents the potential effects of departures from the long run equilibrium
(Baharumshah et. al, 2009). is the adjustment coefficient. The ECM coefficient should be negative, less than
one and significant in order to conform the co-integration relationship.
Unit Root Test:
A unit root test tests whether a time series variable is non-stationary using an autoregressive model. A well-
known test that is valid in large sample is the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The essence of unit root in
ARDL is to confirm the integration level of the variables as the approach is valid for variables that are stationary
either at level [I(0)] or at first difference [I(1)]. If the variable in the regression model are not stationary, then it
can be proved that the standard assumptions for asymptotic analysis will not be valid.
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Vol.5, No.14, 2014
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4. Results and Discussion
Table 1 below shows the stationary properties of thevariables, unemployment, real GDP and inflation. Except for
inflation, both unemployment and real GDP are non-stationary series at level, but only become stationary after
first-differencing. This applies to all the versions of the stationarity test including Augmented Dickey-Fuller
(ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) tests. These differences in the stationary level of the variables indicate that the
use of Johansen Juselius and Engel-Granger based co-integration test cannot be feasible. Based on this we
employed the Autoregressive Distributive lag (ARDL) approach in estimating the co-integrating relationship
among our variables.
Table 1: Results of the Unit Root Test
Level
Variables
ADF PP
Intercept
Trend with Intercept
Intercept
Trend with Intercept
LUN 0.3138 (0.9756) -1.0213 (0.9275) -1.0139 (0.9958) -0.6300 (0.9704)
LRGDP 3.5333 (1.0000) 0.4294 (0.9986) 3.5616 (1.0000) 0.8503 (0.9997)
LIN -3.4773** (0.015) -3.5506* (0.0502) -2.9454* (0.0506) -2.9187 (0.1695)
First
Difference
Intercept Trend with Intercept Intercept Trend with Intercept
LUN -6.3903*** (0.0) -6.8345*** (0.0) -6.3947*** (0.0) -6.8345*** (0.0)
LRGDP -3.6078** (0.004) -5.7204*** (0.0) -4.0236*** (0.003) -5.7239*** (0.0)
LIN -5.8805*** (0.0) -5.8105*** (0.0002) -9.4224*** (0.0) -10.1789*** (0.0)
Note: ***, **, * indicate significant level at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively. Values in parenthesis are probability
values.
Table 2 below contains a result for the ARDL – co-integration bound test. The results revealed that the variables
are cointegrated at 5% level. It is indicated by the value of the F – Statistics of 5.3793 being greater than the
values of both the lower bound, I(0) and the upper bound, I(1) of the Narayan (2005) table which are 4.183 and
5.333 respectively. The value of the F-statistic is lower than both the lower and upper bounds of the Narayan
table at 1% critical value. Since the variables are cointegrated, the estimate of their long run relationships can be
obtained. The results of the estimates are shown in Table 3.
Table 2: ARDL- Bounds Test for Cointegration
F-Statistic 1% Critical Value 5% Critical Value 10% Critical Value
I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1)
5.3793** 6.140 7.607 4.183 5.333 3.393 4.410
K = 2, N = 35
Critical value Based on Narayan, (2005) table- The Unrestricted Intercept with no Trend
Table 3 presents the values of the estimated long-run coefficients with unemployment as a dependent variable.
The coefficient of the rate of inflation is -0.87062, meaning that in the long run unemployment is negatively
related to inflation rate in Nigeria. It further shows that a 1% increase in inflation leads to 0.870 % decrease in
unemployment and it is significant at 1% level. This finding is in conformity with the Philips curve theory which
stated that unemployment is negatively related to inflation. On the other hand, the coefficient of the real GDP
shows a significant positive relationship with unemployment. A change in real GDP by 1% will explosively
trigger a change in unemployment rate by 1.1351. This finding, although contrary to the A priori expectation, as
the increase in real GDP ought to have reduced the unemployment rate in the country, but is possible as noted by
Levine (2013). The study stated that “.when economic output increases, in the long run, firms typically don’t hire
new workers but have their current workers work for longer hours.” It could also be explained by the fact that,
industries experiencing increasing returns to scale would require a minimum labor force as the increase would
have a multiplicative effect on their cost of production, thus, will cause both real GDP and unemployment to rise.
Table 3: ARDL- Results for Long Run Model
Variables Coefficients Standard Error T – Ratio [prob.]
LIN -0.87062*** 0.22873 -3.8063[0.001]
LRGDP 1.1351*** 0.27922 4.0652[0.000]
INPT -25.8425*** 7.6215 -3.3907[0.002]
Note: LUN = Dependent Variable: Lag lengths are 1, 2, 0 selected based on SBC
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Table 4 shows the result of the short run and error correction model. The results revealed that unemployment is
negatively related to inflation at 5% significant level as indicated by the probability value of 0.049. This is
similar to the estimates of the long-run values. The real GDP, in the short-run on the other hand, is positively
related to unemployment at 1% level of significant. This situation is possible, as according to Gregory Del Jones,
(2006) that “As long as a different sector of the economy contributes to GDP by more than what was lost from
unemployment, real GDP will rise as unemployment rises, if only marginally, (World Economic Forum, 2013).
On the other hand, the error correction model is negative, significant at 1% and less than unity (-0.5272). This
means that the degree of adjustment to equilibrium is about 53% annually.
The positive relationship between Real GDP and Unemployment in Nigeria as revealed by the results both in the
short run and long run has been justified by the then Central Bank governor, L. Sanusi, in 2012 “There is a
serious problem when a country is growing at seven per cent and yet could not provide jobs for its citizens (CBN
report 2012). It is like a broken record;”The reason for this positive relationship between real GDP and
unemployment is that there is over reliance on the oil sector in Nigeria neglecting other vital sectors like the
manufacturing, iron & steel and agriculture. The oil sector cannot provides the required employment
opportunities, whereas the agricultural sector if given more consideration can provide about sixty percent of job
opportunities in Nigeria to the Nigerians, Seun (2013).
Table 4: ARDL- Results for Short Run Model
Variables Coefficients Standard Error T – Ratio [prob.]
△LUN 0.2480 0.09313 2.6629 [0.013]
△LIN -0.1758** 0.08546 -2.0582 [0.049]
△LRGDP 0.5984*** 0.2053 2.9144 [0.007]
△INPT -13.6248 5.2601 -2.5902 [0.015]
ECMt-1 -0.5272*** 0.1340 -3.9343 [0.001]
Note: LUN = Dependent Variable; Lag length s : 1, 2, 0 selected based on SBC.
Table 5 contains Diagnostic test results. The results revealed that there is no existence of Serial correlation,
Functional form, and Heteroscedasticity in the error term. The Durbin Watson Statistic is slightly greater than
two (2.2610), this indicates no serial correlation in the model. Moreover, the model does not have functional
form misspecification which means that, it has accounted forsome important nonlinearity. There is also non-
existence of heteroscedasticity which validate the statistical test of significance. The existence of
heteroscedasticity, is a problem in the application of regression analysis as it invalidates statistical significance.
Table 5: Diagnostic Test Results
Diagnostic Test LM Version F Version
Serial Correlation CHSQ(1)=1.2601[0.262] F(1, 26)=1.0323[0.319]
Functional Form CHSQ(1)=0.91638[0.762] F(1, 26)=0.072401[0.790]
Normality CHSQ(2)=36.5351[0.000] Not applicable
Heteroscedasticity CHSQ(1)=0.33471[0.563] F(1, 31)=0.31764[0.577]
R- Squared0.85527
DW-statistic2.2610
5. Summary and Conclusion
For years, numerous of studies have confirmed the negative relationship between real GDP growth and the level
of unemployment. However, Gabrisch and Buscher (2006) have argued that GDP growth characterized by
productivity progress will hardly reduce the level of unemployment if the employment – relevant component of
aggregate demand is too low.
This study has analyzed the relationship between real gross domestic product and unemployment in Nigeria,
with inflation as a control variable, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model for the period 1977-
2011. The empirical findings of this study show that real GDP growth is positively correlated with
unemployment. This finding is contrary to a priori expectation that real GDP ought to have reduced the level of
unemployment. Inflation is negatively related to unemployment and this has conformed to Philips curve
hypothesis. The positive relationship between real GDP and unemployment in Nigeria, although, contrary too
many studies, but supports the view of Gregory (2009), that if different sectors in the economy can contribute
more than what was lost from unemployment; real GDP will rise as unemployment rises. With this we can
clearly say that both real GDP increase and unemployment coexist in the Nigerian economy. Therefore, it is
expected of the government touse the huge revenue it derives from the oil sector to develop other sectors like
iron and steel sector, agriculture and so on that more and more job opportunities. The government should also
provide environment that will attract capital and investment, the government does not necessary create jobs but
does aid the private sector in making job creation possible and imminent.
6. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.5, No.14, 2014
12
References
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Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001).Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level
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Singlair T. (2009), “The relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Movements in US Output and the
Unemployment rate” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking; Vol. 41, No. 2-3, Pp 529-542.
Seun O. (2013), The Effect of Petroleum on Agricultural Development in Nigeria. Academia.edu.
The Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 2013: project reports aggregate and individual governance
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Appendix 1 (CUSUM TEST)
Figure 2
Plot of Cumulative Sum of Recursive
Residuals
The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5%significance level
-5
-10
-15
0
5
10
15
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2011
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ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.5, No.14, 2014
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Appendix 2 (CUSUM Square TEST)
Figure 2
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to acknowledge the management of University Putra Malaysia, for making this study a
successful one.
Plot of Cumulative Sum of Squares
of Recursive Residuals
The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5%significance level
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2011
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