This document discusses unemployment and its impact on the economy. It defines unemployment as people who are able and willing to work but cannot find employment. There are two main types of unemployment discussed: frictional unemployment which occurs due to imperfect information in the job market, and demand-deficient unemployment which occurs when there is a fall in aggregate demand. The document also examines unemployment rates among youth aged 15-24 and older workers aged 55-64 from 1995-2005 in Australia, finding that youth unemployment fell significantly while older worker unemployment also declined in 2005.
This document summarizes key economic indicators in the United States from 2005 to 2015. It discusses components of GDP like consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. It also analyzes unemployment rates, inflation, oil prices and consumer confidence. The economy recovered from the Great Recession, with GDP and consumption increasing steadily in recent years. However, inflation remains low and unemployment higher than pre-recession levels, suggesting more room for improvement. Falling oil prices could boost growth but also pose deflation risks if price declines continue.
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
The document is a newsletter discussing the state of the US economy from the perspective of an economic analyst, Mike Lathigee. It summarizes that while official reports claim the economy is recovering, the reality is that inequality is growing as the rich get richer and the middle class and poor get poorer. Unemployment and other key economic indicators show most Americans are worse off than during the 2008 recession. It recommends investors increase their holdings of physical gold and silver to 10% of their portfolio as a hedge against potential economic troubles in the future.
The newsletter discusses the growing economic divide in the US, with facts showing that the rich are getting richer while the middle class and poor are worse off. It argues the recovery reported in the news does not reflect most Americans' experiences. When the Federal Reserve stops stimulating the economy by buying bonds, interest rates will rise, which could trigger a recession worse than 2008 by hurting consumers and the housing/stock markets. The massive US debt also makes the economy vulnerable if interest rates return to historical levels.
The document presents a graph showing an alternative calculation of the possible actual US unemployment rate from 1970 to 2015. It incorporates data on individuals not in the labor force from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and retired individuals from the Social Security Administration. The resulting unemployment rates presented in the graph are consistently higher than official rates, particularly after 2008. The author explains their methodology as subtracting retired individuals from those not in the labor force and adding the result to the unemployed total from BLS to calculate possible unemployment rates.
Economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional anal...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
This document discusses unemployment and its impact on the economy. It defines unemployment as people who are able and willing to work but cannot find employment. There are two main types of unemployment discussed: frictional unemployment which occurs due to imperfect information in the job market, and demand-deficient unemployment which occurs when there is a fall in aggregate demand. The document also examines unemployment rates among youth aged 15-24 and older workers aged 55-64 from 1995-2005 in Australia, finding that youth unemployment fell significantly while older worker unemployment also declined in 2005.
This document summarizes key economic indicators in the United States from 2005 to 2015. It discusses components of GDP like consumption, investment, government spending and net exports. It also analyzes unemployment rates, inflation, oil prices and consumer confidence. The economy recovered from the Great Recession, with GDP and consumption increasing steadily in recent years. However, inflation remains low and unemployment higher than pre-recession levels, suggesting more room for improvement. Falling oil prices could boost growth but also pose deflation risks if price declines continue.
The document analyzes potential unemployment scenarios in the United States over the next decade. It first examines current unemployment data and trends, finding the unemployment rate at 10% with 17.3% underemployment. It then presents three scenarios: 1) unemployment peaking in late 2010 and returning to pre-recession levels by 2013, based on historical patterns; 2) unemployment declining more slowly due to factors like declining consumer credit, part-time work, and low labor participation; 3) unemployment remaining elevated for years due to challenges across many industries in creating sufficient new jobs.
The document is a newsletter discussing the state of the US economy from the perspective of an economic analyst, Mike Lathigee. It summarizes that while official reports claim the economy is recovering, the reality is that inequality is growing as the rich get richer and the middle class and poor get poorer. Unemployment and other key economic indicators show most Americans are worse off than during the 2008 recession. It recommends investors increase their holdings of physical gold and silver to 10% of their portfolio as a hedge against potential economic troubles in the future.
The newsletter discusses the growing economic divide in the US, with facts showing that the rich are getting richer while the middle class and poor are worse off. It argues the recovery reported in the news does not reflect most Americans' experiences. When the Federal Reserve stops stimulating the economy by buying bonds, interest rates will rise, which could trigger a recession worse than 2008 by hurting consumers and the housing/stock markets. The massive US debt also makes the economy vulnerable if interest rates return to historical levels.
The document presents a graph showing an alternative calculation of the possible actual US unemployment rate from 1970 to 2015. It incorporates data on individuals not in the labor force from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and retired individuals from the Social Security Administration. The resulting unemployment rates presented in the graph are consistently higher than official rates, particularly after 2008. The author explains their methodology as subtracting retired individuals from those not in the labor force and adding the result to the unemployed total from BLS to calculate possible unemployment rates.
Economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional anal...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
11.economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional a...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
This document provides an overview and analysis of current economic conditions in Australia, the United States, and China from the perspective of a business strategy newsletter. It summarizes that:
1) The Australian unemployment rate is projected to peak around 6.5-7.0% in late 2010 before declining again, representing a relatively short 18 month economic downturn.
2) The downturn in the US economy will be more prolonged, with unemployment not peaking until 2014 at around 8% and GDP contraction of 0.7-1.2% for several years, representing a "lost decade" of weak growth.
3) While Chinese exports to the US will decline, domestic consumption is growing and China relies
This document summarizes research analyzing the determinants of unemployment rate recoveries in Latin America following recessions from 1990 to 2010. It finds that while GDP growth is linked to falling unemployment per Okun's Law, GDP alone does not fully explain differences between countries. Four additional variables are examined: size of government, share of agriculture/rural population, employment rigidity/firing costs, and exchange rate/openness levels. The research uses panel data from 12 Latin American countries to analyze how unemployment is affected by GDP and these four factors both collectively for Latin America and individually for each country.
The document defines key terms and concepts related to unemployment statistics:
- The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. It does not include discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs.
- There are different types of unemployment including frictional from job transitions, structural from industry changes, and cyclical from economic fluctuations.
- Frictional and structural unemployment comprise the natural rate of unemployment, which no economy can reach zero percent.
- Other important metrics include the labor force participation rate, short vs long-term unemployment, and the dependency ratio.
- Unemployment is measured through labor force surveys and claimant counts, but numbers can vary and not all people
Growing wage dispersion, rather than declining labor share of income, has been the primary driver of rising income inequality according to a new IMF study. Using household surveys and macroeconomic data from 81 countries over 40 years, the study found that the largest factor contributing to increasing income inequality was growing disparity in wages, particularly at the top of the wage distribution. Rising financial globalization, decreasing unionization, and a shrinking state sector were also found to associate with wider wage dispersion. To curb undesired distributional effects, policymakers need to focus on labor market outcomes and wage differences through policies that promote inclusive growth and minimize market distortions.
The Causal Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in T...inventionjournals
The purpose of the paper is to study dynamic relationships between the inflation and output gap by using Granger causality, Impulse response and variance decompositions analysis within VECM framework for the quarterly data over the first period of 2003 and second period of 2016. The results of the study indicate that the output gap Granger cause the inflation in Turkey both in short-and long-runs. Also, sign of the causality is negative and same causal relationships between two variables hold beyond the sample period. The results should be taken as an evidence of the conclusion that the output gap has important implications for the CBRT's monetary policy.
This document discusses the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. It finds that a persistently high unemployment rate remains a concern for Congress. While the unemployment rate has declined since peaking in 2009 and 2010, it remains elevated by historical standards. The key driver of unemployment over the long run is the rate of economic growth compared to potential growth. For unemployment to significantly decline, growth needs to outpace the combined growth of the labor force and productivity. Recent recoveries, including from the 2007-2009 recession, have seen slow declines in unemployment, described as "jobless recoveries."
Rakip Bebo provides a macroeconomic forecast for the US economy in 2015. Based on analysis from multiple sources, Bebo predicts that GDP growth will be 3% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4 of 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.3% in both quarters. While the economy is improving, productivity and labor force participation remain sluggish. Underemployment, especially among young college graduates, also poses a problem. Wage growth has been slow to recover despite falling unemployment, restraining consumer spending and full economic capacity.
The Minimum Wage is a Terrible Economic Policythemattbrown
The document argues that minimum wage is a poor economic policy for three main reasons:
1) It was created during a time of high unemployment and recession in 1938 out of a lack of confidence in free markets.
2) If advocates truly believe it is a good policy, they would argue for a much higher minimum wage like $100/hour, not just $7.50. This reveals the policy is not aimed at ensuring fair pay.
3) Basic economic principles of supply and demand show that raising the price of labor artificially through minimum wage leads employers to hire fewer workers. This harms the very low-skilled workers the policy aims to help.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
The document discusses trends in the US labor market and organized labor. It describes how economic trends affect employment rates, outsourcing, demographics, and wages. The labor force is defined as people aged 16 or older who are employed or unemployed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks employment, unemployment, and labor force trends monthly. Wages vary based on supply and demand for different skill levels. While laws prohibit discrimination, women and minorities often still earn less. Labor unions arose to advocate for workers' rights and negotiate contracts through collective bargaining, though union membership has declined.
The document provides an overview of key economic concepts including the business cycle, indicators of economic health, and the evolution of the US economy. It discusses the four stages of the business cycle - prosperity, recession, depression, recovery. It also outlines some common economic indicators used to measure the health of the economy, such as GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and national debt. Finally, it provides a brief history of the changing nature of the US economy from colonial times to the modern information economy.
OXBOW ADVISORS APRIL 2017 MARKET COMMENTSKeys Oakley
The stock market’s movement in 2016 was most Unusual, Unpredictable, and downright Crazy compared to previous years. Between politics and economics, it was a classic case study of extremes...
The document discusses economic challenges facing rural counties in Utah. It finds that while some urban counties are prospering, many rural counties continue to struggle with issues like declining jobs and population, low economic diversity, and high unemployment rates. It identifies several counties - Carbon, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Piute, and San Juan - as qualifying as rural, having low economic diversity, and economic setbacks in key measures. It proposes a "Rural Utah State Income Tax Incentive" to help address these challenges by giving tax credits to businesses and individuals who stay and relocate to rural Utah counties.
Business Research Method ( Articular project) Umair Ahmed
Political instability negatively impacts economic growth. When a country lacks political stability, it discourages investment and hinders projects, slowing economic growth. Unstable political environments decrease standards of living as GDP and GNP fall, employment opportunities decline, and people's incomes drop. Conversely, stabilizing politics boosts employment, GDP, and GNP, increasing standards of living and putting the country on a path toward stronger economic progress. The hypothesis is that increased political instability leads to decreased economic growth, while decreased political instability spurs increased economic growth.
This white paper proposes tax reforms to promote economic growth and equity in the United States. It summarizes that the current US economic situation features high unemployment, stagnating incomes, and extreme inequality. The author argues corporate and personal income tax reforms could help address these issues by raising revenues to invest in the economy while reducing inequality. The paper outlines principles for tax reform and specific proposals, including increasing taxes on corporations and high incomes, closing loopholes, reforming estate taxes, and implementing environmental taxes. The goal is for taxation reforms to strengthen the economy, improve distribution, and encourage socially beneficial behavior.
This document analyzes key economic indicators in the US for the first quarter of 2014. It discusses 10 important indicators: 1) GDP decreased 1% due to declines in corporate profits and income, likely due to harsh winter weather slowing business activity. 2) Housing market saw a small increase in existing home sales but declines in homeownership and increases in rental vacancies. 3) Unemployment has been decreasing but wages are also declining slightly. 4) Import and export prices rose slightly due to inflation. Raising the value of the dollar could boost trade and corporate profits. 5) Retail sales rose 4% showing consumer confidence. 6) Consumer credit is rising as interest rates remain low and confidence increases. 7) Keeping inflation low
The document discusses increasing unemployment rates and reasons for unemployment. It notes private sector employment has been negative for 10 years, with 8 million jobs lost during the recession. Unemployment duration and rates are at record highs. Reducing unemployment will require stimulating all three engines of the economy - consumers, businesses, and government - as each are currently struggling. The document proposes a non-profit jobs program as a potential "fourth engine" to reduce unemployment.
The document discusses how unemployment is defined and calculated. It begins by explaining the natural rate of unemployment includes frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. It then defines who is considered unemployed or not in the labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. While the unemployment rate provides timely information, it has shortcomings as it excludes discouraged workers and those who are underemployed. The document also discusses other indicators like the labor force participation rate and how unemployment statistics vary by age, gender, and race.
11.economic growth and its determinants a longitudinal and a cross regional a...Alexander Decker
1) The document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and various potential determinants using panel data from 177 countries over 1995-2009.
2) It finds that reduced corruption, lower inflation, and increased trade openness are positively associated with economic growth, while the relationships between growth and factors like government consumption, tropical climate, and agricultural growth are mixed.
3) Military expenditure was not found to have a significant relationship with economic growth, while democracy was found to influence growth only in African countries.
This document provides an overview and analysis of current economic conditions in Australia, the United States, and China from the perspective of a business strategy newsletter. It summarizes that:
1) The Australian unemployment rate is projected to peak around 6.5-7.0% in late 2010 before declining again, representing a relatively short 18 month economic downturn.
2) The downturn in the US economy will be more prolonged, with unemployment not peaking until 2014 at around 8% and GDP contraction of 0.7-1.2% for several years, representing a "lost decade" of weak growth.
3) While Chinese exports to the US will decline, domestic consumption is growing and China relies
This document summarizes research analyzing the determinants of unemployment rate recoveries in Latin America following recessions from 1990 to 2010. It finds that while GDP growth is linked to falling unemployment per Okun's Law, GDP alone does not fully explain differences between countries. Four additional variables are examined: size of government, share of agriculture/rural population, employment rigidity/firing costs, and exchange rate/openness levels. The research uses panel data from 12 Latin American countries to analyze how unemployment is affected by GDP and these four factors both collectively for Latin America and individually for each country.
The document defines key terms and concepts related to unemployment statistics:
- The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. It does not include discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs.
- There are different types of unemployment including frictional from job transitions, structural from industry changes, and cyclical from economic fluctuations.
- Frictional and structural unemployment comprise the natural rate of unemployment, which no economy can reach zero percent.
- Other important metrics include the labor force participation rate, short vs long-term unemployment, and the dependency ratio.
- Unemployment is measured through labor force surveys and claimant counts, but numbers can vary and not all people
Growing wage dispersion, rather than declining labor share of income, has been the primary driver of rising income inequality according to a new IMF study. Using household surveys and macroeconomic data from 81 countries over 40 years, the study found that the largest factor contributing to increasing income inequality was growing disparity in wages, particularly at the top of the wage distribution. Rising financial globalization, decreasing unionization, and a shrinking state sector were also found to associate with wider wage dispersion. To curb undesired distributional effects, policymakers need to focus on labor market outcomes and wage differences through policies that promote inclusive growth and minimize market distortions.
The Causal Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Output Gap in T...inventionjournals
The purpose of the paper is to study dynamic relationships between the inflation and output gap by using Granger causality, Impulse response and variance decompositions analysis within VECM framework for the quarterly data over the first period of 2003 and second period of 2016. The results of the study indicate that the output gap Granger cause the inflation in Turkey both in short-and long-runs. Also, sign of the causality is negative and same causal relationships between two variables hold beyond the sample period. The results should be taken as an evidence of the conclusion that the output gap has important implications for the CBRT's monetary policy.
This document discusses the relationship between economic growth and unemployment rates. It finds that a persistently high unemployment rate remains a concern for Congress. While the unemployment rate has declined since peaking in 2009 and 2010, it remains elevated by historical standards. The key driver of unemployment over the long run is the rate of economic growth compared to potential growth. For unemployment to significantly decline, growth needs to outpace the combined growth of the labor force and productivity. Recent recoveries, including from the 2007-2009 recession, have seen slow declines in unemployment, described as "jobless recoveries."
Rakip Bebo provides a macroeconomic forecast for the US economy in 2015. Based on analysis from multiple sources, Bebo predicts that GDP growth will be 3% in Q3 and 2.8% in Q4 of 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.3% in both quarters. While the economy is improving, productivity and labor force participation remain sluggish. Underemployment, especially among young college graduates, also poses a problem. Wage growth has been slow to recover despite falling unemployment, restraining consumer spending and full economic capacity.
The Minimum Wage is a Terrible Economic Policythemattbrown
The document argues that minimum wage is a poor economic policy for three main reasons:
1) It was created during a time of high unemployment and recession in 1938 out of a lack of confidence in free markets.
2) If advocates truly believe it is a good policy, they would argue for a much higher minimum wage like $100/hour, not just $7.50. This reveals the policy is not aimed at ensuring fair pay.
3) Basic economic principles of supply and demand show that raising the price of labor artificially through minimum wage leads employers to hire fewer workers. This harms the very low-skilled workers the policy aims to help.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
The document discusses trends in the US labor market and organized labor. It describes how economic trends affect employment rates, outsourcing, demographics, and wages. The labor force is defined as people aged 16 or older who are employed or unemployed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks employment, unemployment, and labor force trends monthly. Wages vary based on supply and demand for different skill levels. While laws prohibit discrimination, women and minorities often still earn less. Labor unions arose to advocate for workers' rights and negotiate contracts through collective bargaining, though union membership has declined.
The document provides an overview of key economic concepts including the business cycle, indicators of economic health, and the evolution of the US economy. It discusses the four stages of the business cycle - prosperity, recession, depression, recovery. It also outlines some common economic indicators used to measure the health of the economy, such as GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, and national debt. Finally, it provides a brief history of the changing nature of the US economy from colonial times to the modern information economy.
OXBOW ADVISORS APRIL 2017 MARKET COMMENTSKeys Oakley
The stock market’s movement in 2016 was most Unusual, Unpredictable, and downright Crazy compared to previous years. Between politics and economics, it was a classic case study of extremes...
The document discusses economic challenges facing rural counties in Utah. It finds that while some urban counties are prospering, many rural counties continue to struggle with issues like declining jobs and population, low economic diversity, and high unemployment rates. It identifies several counties - Carbon, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield, Piute, and San Juan - as qualifying as rural, having low economic diversity, and economic setbacks in key measures. It proposes a "Rural Utah State Income Tax Incentive" to help address these challenges by giving tax credits to businesses and individuals who stay and relocate to rural Utah counties.
Business Research Method ( Articular project) Umair Ahmed
Political instability negatively impacts economic growth. When a country lacks political stability, it discourages investment and hinders projects, slowing economic growth. Unstable political environments decrease standards of living as GDP and GNP fall, employment opportunities decline, and people's incomes drop. Conversely, stabilizing politics boosts employment, GDP, and GNP, increasing standards of living and putting the country on a path toward stronger economic progress. The hypothesis is that increased political instability leads to decreased economic growth, while decreased political instability spurs increased economic growth.
This white paper proposes tax reforms to promote economic growth and equity in the United States. It summarizes that the current US economic situation features high unemployment, stagnating incomes, and extreme inequality. The author argues corporate and personal income tax reforms could help address these issues by raising revenues to invest in the economy while reducing inequality. The paper outlines principles for tax reform and specific proposals, including increasing taxes on corporations and high incomes, closing loopholes, reforming estate taxes, and implementing environmental taxes. The goal is for taxation reforms to strengthen the economy, improve distribution, and encourage socially beneficial behavior.
This document analyzes key economic indicators in the US for the first quarter of 2014. It discusses 10 important indicators: 1) GDP decreased 1% due to declines in corporate profits and income, likely due to harsh winter weather slowing business activity. 2) Housing market saw a small increase in existing home sales but declines in homeownership and increases in rental vacancies. 3) Unemployment has been decreasing but wages are also declining slightly. 4) Import and export prices rose slightly due to inflation. Raising the value of the dollar could boost trade and corporate profits. 5) Retail sales rose 4% showing consumer confidence. 6) Consumer credit is rising as interest rates remain low and confidence increases. 7) Keeping inflation low
The document discusses increasing unemployment rates and reasons for unemployment. It notes private sector employment has been negative for 10 years, with 8 million jobs lost during the recession. Unemployment duration and rates are at record highs. Reducing unemployment will require stimulating all three engines of the economy - consumers, businesses, and government - as each are currently struggling. The document proposes a non-profit jobs program as a potential "fourth engine" to reduce unemployment.
The document discusses how unemployment is defined and calculated. It begins by explaining the natural rate of unemployment includes frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. It then defines who is considered unemployed or not in the labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated as the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. While the unemployment rate provides timely information, it has shortcomings as it excludes discouraged workers and those who are underemployed. The document also discusses other indicators like the labor force participation rate and how unemployment statistics vary by age, gender, and race.
Topics discussed by Dr. Peter Linneman:
- Does it all come to an end if interest rates rise?
- Is a recession just around the corner? What warning signs should we look for?
- What does the new Administration and Congress mean for real estate and the economy?
- Audience questions
- And more!
Andrew Tulumello - Reasons for Labor Market OptimismAndy Tulumello
The document analyzes reasons for optimism in the US labor market beyond the unemployment rate. It finds that declines in long-term unemployment, a stable participation rate, and low layoffs/claims indicate continued recovery. While the participation rate decline partly reflects demographic shifts like aging, projections show it stabilizing. Steady job growth and increasing job openings also point to strength, as do reductions in structural unemployment over time. Overall, the analysis finds that while frictions from the recession persist, factors examined provide optimism that the labor market is recovering and its challenges do not appear permanent.
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Date
Fixing Youth Unemployment
The Bureau Labor of Statistics (BLS) produces a monthly report concerning unemployment, and it indicates the state and strength of the economy. In October this year, the unemployment rate increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous month (Tradingeconomics.com para 1). America has one of the most prolonged economic recoveries in its history, and despite the continual effort by the government to create jobs, full employment levels have not been reached. Unemployment has adverse consequences on the overall economy, and there is a loss of significant consumer spending. When unemployment levels rise, it can be financially destructive to an economy. Over two million youths are unemployed, and most have given up having permanent employment (Bls.gov para 8-9). Failure to have a stable job in early adulthood can have a significant impact on the lives of individuals. Young people complete college, begin searching for employment, and if they cannot find, they ultimately give up on being employed. Constant rejection and the state of the economy contributes to many unemployed youths in a country. It is, therefore, important for an economy to analyze the root causes of unemployment and fix the problem.
Understanding Youth Unemployment and its Causes
Unemployed people are those who do not have a job, have actively searched for work in the past four weeks, and are currently available for employment (Amadeo, para 1). BLS uses household surveys known as current population surveys to measure unemployment. It is a practice that has been conducted since 1940 when the government was responding to the Great Depression. The survey results help to understand the unemployment rates for different people in society like youths and adults. The unemployment rate among youths refers to the number of unemployed youths between the ages of 15-24 years when it is expressed as a percentage of the youth labor force. Figure 1 shows the fluctuating rates of unemployment from October 2018 to October 2019. In the US from April to June 2019, the unemployment rate rose by 615,000, and this increase was similar to the rise for the same period in 2018 (Bls.gov para 9). In July 2019, the number of unemployed youths was 2.1 million. Thus the government needs to identify causes and solutions to create employment opportunities such that all the youths contribute to the growth of the economy.
Figure 1: Monthly Youth (16-24) unemployment rate in the US from October 2018 to October 2019.
Source: Bureau Labor of Statistics
The graph shows the unemployment rates every month for youths across the US. It shows seasonally adjusted rates, which is a statistical approach to remove the seasonal component of a time series integrated with the analysis of non-seasonal tren ...
The document discusses different types and causes of unemployment. It describes how the unemployment rate is calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There are always some frictional unemployed workers due to the time needed to search for suitable jobs. Additional unemployment is caused by minimum wage laws which reduce the quantity of jobs available. Unions can also contribute to unemployment by negotiating above-market wages for their members. Some firms choose efficiency wages above market rates to improve worker productivity and retention.
The document discusses whether the US economy has truly recovered from the Great Recession. While GDP and corporate profits have increased since the recession, the author argues that the quality of life for most Americans, especially the bottom 99%, has not significantly improved or has deteriorated. Unemployment rates only consider those actively looking for work and do not account for discouraged workers, and labor participation is at a 38-year low. The author believes inequality has increased and many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, indicating the economy has not fully recovered for most.
Read this white paper for a step by step calculation of turnover cost, the top 10 employee complaints that could lead to turnover, plus solutions for diminishing this costly phenomenon at your organization.
This paper studies wage adjustment during the recent crisis in regulated and unregulated labor markets in Italy. Using a unique dataset on immigrant workers, we show that before the crisis wages in the formal/regulated and informal/unregulated sectors moved in parallel (with a 15 percent premium in the formal labor market). During the crisis, however, formal wages did not adjust down while wages in the unregulated informal labor market fell so that by 2013 the gap had grown to 32 percent. The dierence is especially salient for workers in "simple" occupations where there is high substitutability between immigrant and native workers. Our results are consistent with the view that labor market regulation prevents downward wage adjustment during recessions.
by Sergei Guriev, Biagio Speciale and Michele Tuccio. November 2015
Read more research analysis at https://www.hhs.se/site
Heather Elizabeth HamoodHeather Elizabeth Hamoodheatherhamood
Heather Hamood is a Licensed Physician who enjoys playing the Violin in her spare time. In addition to helping people as a Doctor, she loves to share her passion for the violin.
ITES KPO BPO IT sector in the country has increased at an incredible rate o...yashwanthkumar517728
ites KPO and BPO,IT sector in the country has increased at an incredible rate of 35% per year for the last 10 years reinforces the view that India is world class in IT
The IT sector is one of the largest employers of women, and therefore, can play a crucial role in women empowerment and the reduction of gender inequalities.
Introduction to Metro in India by cosmo soil.pptxcosmo-soil
The metro system in India is a vital part of urban mobility, providing eco-friendly, efficient, and affordable transportation. This article explores its history, benefits, and future developments, highlighting how metros enhance quality of life and drive urban development.
PFMS, India's Public Financial Management System, revolutionizes fund tracking and distribution, ensuring transparency and efficiency. It enables real-time monitoring, direct benefit transfers, and comprehensive reporting, significantly improving financial management and reducing fraud across government schemes.
Monthly Market Risk Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
Markets rallied in May, with all three major U.S. equity indices up for the month, said Sam Millette, director of fixed income, in his latest Market Risk Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
1. December 16, 2016
The True State of the Labor Market
By: Abdul Manan
To the untrained eye the labor market can be a tough thing to gauge. We all
understand unemployment, politicians have been talking about how they plan on
changing unemployment, or how they plan on creating jobs, or how they have
achieved one or both of these thing, but do these things matter? The obvious answer
is yes of course they matter. The more complicated answer is that they matter but
there is much more to it then just unemployment and how many jobs are available.
Figure one represents the civilian unemployment rate from 1990 until 2015. We can
see that the unemployment rate shrunk from 1992-2000 at a pretty stead pace, until
it started to fluctuate from 2001-2007, boomed (a very bad thing) from 2008-2009,
and seems to currently be on the decline.
2. Notes: The low unemployment in the year 2000 was a 30-year low and the
unemployment in 2010 was .1 points off of being a 30-year high. We see that the
immediate year/years following a recession is when unemployment seems to reach
its peaks. This is attributed to the fact the right after a recession is when its affects
are felt by most.
Now some people will look at the above graph and think, “we’re on the track towards
very low unemployment and that’s all that matters”. Sadly, those people would be
mistaken. Labor force participation rate is a very telling statistic; it is the rate in
3. which those available (anyone over 16, not serving in any branch of the military, or
not incarcerated) are working. Many people might wonder if this is just the exact
opposite thing when related the unemployment and they would also be sadly
mistaken. Unemployment rate does not take the available population into account; it
only takes into account those actively seeking work. Labor force participation (in my
opinion) is a much more telling statistic because it focuses on the general available
population as a whole and shows us the true status of our labor market.
Figure 2 shows us that the labor force participation has been relatively steady for the
last 20 years, until the great recession hit. Not only have we not recovered from the
great recession but it seems like labor force participation is just going lower and
lower.
4. Notes: We see that right before a recession we can see a slight dip in labor force
participation, then an even bigger dip during and immediately following a recession.
Also, some might be quick to blame the great recession, though it has sharply
declined since then, it never really recovered from the small recession back in 2001.
The Labor Market Condition Index
Some have never heard of the labor market condition index, some sing its praise,
while others seem to disagree with its methods and necessity. To give it its purest
5. definition we turn to investopedia and the FED, “a dynamic factor model that extracts
primary variation from 19 labor markets indicators. In other words, the LMCI tracks
changes in the labor market by finding variations from multiple labor indicators.
Indicators range from unemployment rates to wage to layoffs to business surveys”
(Sharma). In layman’s terms, this is an index on how well the labor market is doing, if
the labor market is doing well the index will be high and contrary if the opposite is
the case.
Figure 3 shows the labor market condition index. We can see that the labor market
index seems to be very high right before a recession occurs. We can also see that the
index tells us that labor market conditions have been getting better since 2010.
6. Notes: We can see that outside of recessions the labor index seems to be telling us
the labor market is going well. We also see the exact opposite of what we’re looking
to prove, labor markets seem to be doing just fine.
The reason I bring the Labor Market Conditions Index into this argument is because
people are quick to point to it as a reason as to why labor force participation does not
matter as much as unemployment. Many economists would disagree with such a
statement and even disagree with the idea of the Labor Market Conditions Index in
the first place. Carola Binder, who is an assistant professor of economics at Haverford
College isn’t a fan of the index, “the LMCI is an almost perfect negative correlation
7. with the unemployment rate, the LMCI doesn’t tell you anything that the
unemployment rate wouldn’t have already told you. (Sharma). With economists
battling on whether or not the LMCI is important we can look at the facts, the LMCI
tells us that labor market conditions are good, even though labor force participation
has hit a 30 year low.
Putting the Two Together
Showing the percentages of unemployment and then showing labor force
participation can get a little confusing. By showing the two together (by percent
change) we can see a true difference in the two and compare them side-by-side. We
must see the significance in not one of the lines, but both.
Figure 4 shows the labor force participation since 1990 compared to the
unemployment rate over the same period of time. We must remember that when
labor force participation goes up more people are working and when it goes down
less people are working. The unemployment rate is the opposite, when it goes up
that means less people are working and when it goes down more people are working.
8. Notes: As we can see the worst time for both were during the great recession, not
only did labor force participation go down but also unemployment shot up. We also
see that labor force participation is steadily going down and so is unemployment so
we must wonder if the dip in unemployment is simply from people leaving the labor
force.
Conclusion
Susan Jones from CNSNews quantified some of this data for us, “the labor force
participation rate dropped to 62.8 percent (near a 38-year low)”. Many people do not
understand the statistical significance of the labor force participation but we must to
fully understand the state of the labor market. Wolf Richter also had a very
9. interesting perspective on the condition of the labor market, “In April 2010, there
were 130.1 million nonfarm payrolls. In today’s July report, there were 144.4 million.
Hence, 14.3 million jobs have been added to the economy over the time span, even as
the total population has grown by 15.4 million. So that’s not working out very well.
On average, 205,300 jobs need to be created every month just to keep up with
population growth and not allow the unemployment situation to get worse”. We are
not growing as fast with jobs as we are in population and this could end up being
catastrophic. Many people look to retirement because once people retire it opens up
more opportunity for others, but baby boomers are starting a trend that looks like it
will continue on for the foreseeable future, working past the age of retirement. In
conclusion, something must be done to fix the state of the labor market because it is
not ok; we value unemployment rate but do not understand that positive reduction
in unemployment (a good thing) can simply come from somebody leaving the
statistic (by not actively seeking work), while labor force participation gives us an
accurate account of how much of our population works and they can only leave this
statistic by leaving the country, going into the armed forces, or going to jail.
10. Work Cited
Sharma, Rakesh. "What is the Labor Market Conditions Index?" Investopedia.
N.p., 30 Nov. 2015. Web. 9 Dec. 2016.
Jones, Susan . "Record 94,708,000 Americans Not in Labor Force; Participation
Rate Drops in May." CNS News. N.p., 03 May 2016. Web. 10 Dec. 2016.
Richter, Wolf. "Why this Job Market is Still Terrible: The Politically Incorrect
Numbers Everyone is Hushing up." Wolf Street. N.p., 05 Aug. 2016. Web. 10 Dec.
2016.