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All Energy 2009 Final
- 1. All Energy 2009 2009 Time for the Auto Industry to re-write the rules ASH GUPTA 20 May 2009
- 3. Automotive pedigree Automotive Pedigree for Ash Gupta
- 4. Reprise Association with Ford Th!nk, Th!nk Nordic AS and Th!nk Global AS
- 6. Lo Carbon Consultancy Mapping the Scottish Sustainable Automotive Sector
- 7. On the cusp of change So where is the car industry today?
- 8. Rule makers Who makes the rules? Technology Strategy Board
- 9. Beneficiaries Who are the rules for?
- 10. The Big Three Are there new rules post the collapse of the big three?
- 11. All Energy 2009 One giant still stands
- 13. Industry in denial Why would Fiat want to buy Chrysler and Opel when they’re two dead ducks?
- 16. The new world
- 17. Time for change So where can the car industry go now it’s time for change?
- 18. Time 4 New Technology We have a chance to re-write the entire design, engineering and style book for the auto industry • Fly-by-wire - no transmission, diffs or shafts • In-wheel motors • In-wheel suspensions • Flat bed floor pan delivers all new body aesthetic using smart composite materials
- 19. Time 4 New Technology
- 20. The future is here New? No – running since 2005
- 21. The future is here But it needed an architect to make the jump
- 22. The future is here
- 23. Strategic centres Where will the new strategic centres be for this new sustainable auto industry? • Japan • China • USA • Canada • France • The new forces – Google, Apple, Toshiba and Microsoft
- 24. The cusp of change In production summer 2009
- 25. The cusp of change What must we do to make this happen? • Policy • Concurrence • Support • People infusion • Participation • Co-ordination • Preparation for war
- 26. Prepare for war
Editor's Notes
- To most observers I’m known for my marketing persona. This cloaks 40 years of involvement in the sustainable automotive sector. Exactly 40 years ago in 1969 I joined Ford of Europe to create electric cars and Maglev trains, beginning a journey with more adventures than a novelist could dream of and bringing me to today where the automotive world is staring at the precipice of change. For the record I’m a fully qualified architectural historian with my first degree in 1969 from the then new School of The Built Environment at Edinburgh University, & courtesy of Ford, an urban transport planner, [Univ. of London,] and most importantly regarding me standing here, a car product planner with real, world class cars to my name.
- At Ford we set up The Bobcat Program Control Team. I was part of that unique 13 man, core team behind the concept, development and launch of Project Bobcat, the car you now know as the Ford Fiesta. This car is the fastest 0-1 million in automotive history and changed the Spanish automotive sector plus improved the economy of that country. Sadly the hugely successful program was intensive, and cost marriages inc mine.
- First, a lightning reprise of how I got from the old world of ICE to the new world of BEV and PHEV.I joined Ford of Europe in ’69 & FOE Transportation Planning Office, a 2 man team, in 1970. Then in 1973 came the first Middle East fuel crisis. As a result, FOE Transportation Planning Office was closed. Phil Oxley, ex Senior Urban Planner from the GLC & my boss, becomes Head of Transport Studies at Cranfield. I move to the real world of FOE Car Product Planning. Bobcat’s success leads to a fast track offer of a Ford UK Directorship, but I choose to leave Ford after 10 years to return to Edinburgh, marry my wife of 30 years & start my own marketing business in 1981.Fast forward to 2000 when Ford asked me, still a loyal son of Ford in my heart, to test drive the world’s first production BEV, the Ford Th!nk.AQ ruined the launch of Think@boutLondon on 9/11 2001. I am lured back into play in the sustainable auto world – re-launches Th!nk as Think@boutEdinburgh 2002-05 with a consortium inc Scottish Executive, Ford, CEC, Energy Saving Trust, Scottish Power and KwikFit who provided free recharge points.
- As soon as the US Oil Giants, utilities and the Big 3 persuaded the Government of California to change the regulations governing carbon particulate emission, Ford ditched Th!nk. Th!nk Nordic AS was acquired by Swiss based Kamkorp SA in a deal with a secret poison pill – to kill the successor to the first Th!nk City. $150 million had already been spent by Ford to engineer the replacement car. Oblivious to this under the carpet deal, I continued my association with Th!nk where we now focused instead on creating the world’s first self-drive, emission free public transport system using this vehicle which we called “Picobus.” 33 European cities test drove this vehicle. The Mayors of Paris and Rome wanted 5,000 between them alone. When the company was deliberately allowed by Kamkorp SA to slip into administration, this innovative urban transport solution also died on the delivery table, meanwhile the Mayors of Paris & London are currently issuing tenders for this very system.
- When Th!nk died I tried desperately to persuade the new Norwegian owners to build a European plant in Britain. I assembled a team which included a UK Utility who had already indirectly invested in Think via a West Coast venture fund, RBS, SDI, Peoples Ford for UK distribution and a leading Scottish businessman. We failed in that mission but SDI recognised for the first time that we might be able to participate in the development of the next generation of cars. The Gupta Partnership thus morphed into a new phase of enabling disruptive technologies involving clean tech, renewable and sustainable engineering, now even including cloud computing. We carried out three studies for SDI and SE in the ensuing 18 months. The first one was a mapping study which showed that there were at least 173 organisations domiciled in Scotland actively engaged in business relevant to the sustainable auto sector.
- Ok, that takes us into our new role today. So. Lets now take a no holds barred look at where the real auto industry sits today. If you are in the auto business or its supply chain, you may not like what comes next, but it needs to be said, as the industry right now is about to miss the chance to really set itself up for what needs to come.
- Let’s take a look at who sets the rules……from a British & Scottish perspective, firstThe EUThe UK GovernmentBERR - Business Enterprise & Regulatory ReformTechnology Strategy BoardThe Scottish GovernmentScottish Enterprise
- HM TreasuryThe power vendorsThe existing auto makersTheir supply chainsTheir shareholders and investorsAre they weighted to support the status quo and slow up the process of change because of vested interest from these people?
- Chrysler is now in administration and under threat of a forced wedding with Chrysler and OpelGM only has enough money to survive until end May, 2009So far Ford has not clutched at the new president’s lifeline but has already allowed Visteon to go underThe whole of the world’s auto industry has had change forced on it against its will and the very core of what it believesYes, there are new rules, swept in with the arrival of President Obama in the USAThere’s some affirmative action in the UK, Europe and elsewhere. But have the car and truck makers grasped the enormity of what is happening?
- Ford’s secret weapon is the financial strength of the Ford Family. This has allowed them to resist the US Gov bailout cash. Moreover they have been quick to change direction. Despite burying Think, they now see that the market & the US Gov is serious about Lo-Carbon product so they have taken the lead in the US. That means Ford global product will follow. But, you know they only did this because they were forced to.
- The auto industry has been and still is in denial. [“Classic Marque story”]UK utilities are quoted companies and are thus beholden to the market quarter by quarter, as is the old guard of the auto world.Right now, the way they see it, the new world is not in the interest of the old guard.
- Why would Fiat want to buy Chrysler and Opel when they’re two dead ducks?
- There’s been a change – you’ve seen the fields of unsold cars, not just SUVs, 4X4s, Toyota Pick-ups, Land Rovers and Jaguars, but ICE vehicles in general. Who brought about this change? The market - and in doing so created an outcome that governments did not have the tools to do.Automakers can and do dare to ignore government direction, but when their market turns their back on their products they die more quickly than any business plan can outrun.
- Who are the champions of change?Despite all we see, we still have barriers and resistance.I’ve yet to meet anybody within the mainstream auto industry who really wants to make the big leap in design and motive technology.Remember the 4-seater self-drive Th!nk vehicle I showed you? If adopted by European cities as a self-drive PSV that could have done much to stimulate the sector with it’s Fly by Wire, In-wheel motor, AWD, EV plus HFC technology 10 years ahead of GM.But there are positives. This man’s plans for starters.In the UK however there are also real drivers, in particular the TSB and CENEX.
- So who will own the new world?Japan – Mitsubishi, Nissan+Renault, Honda and ToyotaMitsubishi has come left field with the Mi-EV, a four-seater RHD city car with a 100 mile range and a ten year warranty on its Li-ion battery. Mass production starts summer 2009.Nissan+Renault are creating products to supply Project Better Place in So California, Israel, Denmark, Portugal and Ireland.Honda takes an individualistic route with HFC Insight.Toyota led the way with the useful catalyst for change with the Prius series and now plans to contest the BEV market.With luck, Ford & GM may have real low carbon cars in 2 years.And then we have the niche players who have played a useful role in opening the eyes of the world to these new products. These include Tesla, Think.
- So why aren’t we driving change? The UK Government ultra low carbon urban vehicle trials are a start. Live demonstration of low carbon vehicles on UK city street is essential to change perception.But who will be first to put the first real 4 seater EVs on European roads? The principality of MonacoWhile we dither, the stage is being set in Japan, California, Oregon and finally in London where the utilities are about to install hundreds of on-street recharge points. Guess how many we have today in Scotland – TWO, both in Glasgow!
- If they wanted to the auto industry could revolutionise itself with all new zero emission designs. Planes have it, Airbus, Boeing, why not cars? We still use heavy drive shafts, gear boxes, differentials and suspensions when one micro chip can do their job, take a look at this..
- I have driven a car using this system from Michelin which has now been adopted into a JV between Valeo and Michelin. This technology is here, now and ready for use
- But the technology was around five years ago. Here’s a 55 seat bendy-bus we created for the City of Edinburgh Council in 2005 when they thought that Road Pricing revenue would deliver the funds for these. It has 16 in-wheel motors driven by a micro-chip. The delivery van uses a 4 motor tractor design using the same technology. That was 2005!
- But it needed an architect to make the jump!This electric bus uses in-wheel motors and has been designed in response to a 2008 brief from Transport London. It is a collaboration between architect mega stars Foster+Partners and Aston Martin. It tied with another design from Capoco to win Boris Johnson’s competition for a low carbon bus design for London in 2011.
- The innovative Foster + Partners / Aston Martin design for this Zero emission bus powered by a hydrogen fuel cell includes:-• Power runs at constant optimal rate to charge batteries in lower floor supplying electricity to drive wheels• Wheel hub electric motors which incorporate suspension and braking components within wheel volumes• Virtually silent operation• Regenerative brakes to charge batteries as bus brakes• Forward positioned front wheels: smaller turning circle and improved manoeuvrability • Pull-out power unit “drawer” at front allows ease of access and maintenance• Flexible for installation of alternative power units as technology develops• Compactness of “drive-by-wire” power and drive systems allows more space for passengers• Chassis-free monocoque design for body• Lightweight composite material, honeycomb floor panels and polycarbonate glazing• Bus is 30% lighter than traditional buses• Photo-voltaic panels incorporated into glazed section of roof help charge batteries• Servicing and maintenance dramatically reduced • Minimized time off the road
- So who will be the first to take the hi ground?
- The auto industry stands at the cusp of change. The impossible has happened and 2 of the 3 giants have fallen. We need to grasp the new future and give the market the designs that the public now want.True to form, it is the Japanese Auto sector that is first out of the blocks. This 4 seater, RHD, all electric car with a Li-on Battery carrying a 10 year warranty goes into production this summer. 200 will land in the UK this autumn.
- There’s a chance for the UK to be a world player in the new low carbon auto industry, and here’s what we need to make it happen.A new policy from the top of governmentConcurrence from WestminsterSupport from the TSB and CENEXAn infusion of new people driving the programs through government and SEActive participation from banks, private equity and the investment communityHarness the co-ordinated thought of the Scottish academic community and persuade them to work together with a common purpose.Act as if global warming is a coming war. Put the country on a war footing.Encourage joined-up thinking to enable the transition from ICE to BEV/PHEV.Engage and involve the manufacturers who ‘get it’.The auto industry is bust, but the IT industry still has money and, moreover, they really ‘get it’.Google is rumoured to have the largest collection of BEVs in the world.Toshiba and VW have already announced a JV.
- Prepare for war …Educate the custodians of Britain’s cities by taking the newly launched “Sustainable Cities” program announced by CABE in March 2009 and extend that UK-wide. Harness the energy utilities so that they work together with joint objectives regarding standardised on-street recharging infrastructureSpeed up the process whereby excess power can be sold back to the utilities via the National GridThe most important truth in all of this is indeed dreadfully inconvenient for the old world, but sadly, global warming through climate change does not wait or care for our old world.It’s time for WAR - Not between ourselves but to combat the inevitableIf we allow the credit crunch to re-prioritise this battle, we all loseThe big wave, the high seas, the drought and extreme heat, the colder winters and the stronger winds will not wait for us to prepare our combat planWe need action now and we need some of that action to come via the smart technologies to be found already in the sustainable auto sector.