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State of the Air Transport in 2013
ICAO Aviation Data Analyses Seminar
Middle East (MID) Regional Office
27-29 October
Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section
Air Transport Bureau (ATB)
ICAO Strategic Objective: Economic Development of Air Transport
2
The air transport industry
The air transport industry is not only
• a vital engine of global socio-economic growth
• but is also of vital importance as a catalyst for
economic development,
– creating direct and indirect employment,
– supporting tourism and local businesses, and
– stimulating foreign investment and international
trade.
Economic benefits of aviation
58.1million
Jobs supported by
aviation worldwide
Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014
$2.4 trillion
Global economic
impact*
*including direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic
3
World international cargo shipment
Volume of world international
cargo shipment
Value of world international
cargo shipment
Aviation
Aviation
Surface modes
Surface modes
4
Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
1.9%
2.4%
2.7%
3.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013
Economic development in 2013
Real GDP Quarter-on-Quarter growth
(2013 vs. 2012)
GDP
growth
rate
+2.5% = 2013 vs. 2012
Real GDP annual growth
Economic growth recorded
an increasing trend over
the successive quarterly
growth rates of 2013
5
Source: IHS Global Insight
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Turboprop Turbojet
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Turboprop Turbojet
85%
88%
Number
of
aircraft*
*Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included
Commercial air transport fleet in 2013
Turbojets:
- 88% of world fleet in 2013
- this share increased every year since
2004
2013:
- 1 500 aircraft deliveries
- More than 3000 aircraft net orders
for the world’s major aircraft manufacturer
6
Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites
706 717
687 692
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
US
dollars
(billion)
706 717
687 692
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
US
dollars
(billion)
706 717
687 692
2.6%
3.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2012 2013
Operating Revenues
Operating Expenses
Operating result
Operating
results
(%
of
Revenues)
US
dollars
(billion)
Airline operating revenues in 2013:
717 billion USD
+1.7% vs. 2012
Airline operating results in 2013:
3.5% of operating revenues
+0.9 p.p.* vs. 2012
*percentage points
Air carrier financial results in 2013
7
Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Revenue
Passenger-Kilometres
(billion)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Revenue
Passenger-Kilometres
(billion)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Revenue
Passenger-Kilometres
(billion)
Freight
Tonne-Kilometres
(billion)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1945
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Revenue
Passenger-Kilometres
(billion)
Oil
crisis
Gulf
crisis
Asian
crisis
Iran-Iraq
war
SARS
9/11
terrorist
attack
World
recession
Freight
Tonne-Kilometres
(billion)
Air Transport Development
5.8trillion RPK
+5.5%
growth rate vs. 2012
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
8
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
9
2013 - State of Air Transport
Annual analysis on a world and regional level
• 63 pages of comprehensive analysis and
key figures of air transport
For each ICAO Statistical Region:
• Passenger and cargo traffic for 2011, 2012
and 2013
• Top 15 States, airlines and airports in 2013
• Evolution of LCC market penetration in the
last 10 years
World Air Transport in 2013
10
3.1billion
Passengers carried
32 million
Commercial flights performed
5.8trillion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
186billion
Freight Tonne-Kilometres
+4.5%
vs. 2012
+1.2%
vs. 2012
+0.4%
vs. 2012
+5.5%
vs. 2012
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
10
Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
11
ICAO Statistical Regions
World Air Transport in 2013
by Region
12
3.1billion
Passengers carried
32 million
Commercial flights performed
5.8trillion
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
186billion
Freight Tonne-Kilometres
+4.5%
vs. 2012
+1.2%
vs. 2012
+0.4%
vs. 2012
+5.5%
vs. 2012
41.5
3.1
22.6
74.0
39.1
5.3
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
7.9
0.9
1.1
8.6
11.0
2.6
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
817
73
161
1,008
815
230
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
1,556
134
500
1,785
1,505
303
Europe
Africa
Middle East
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
Passengers carried (million)
Aircraft departures (million)
Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion)
-0.4%
-0.4%
+4.9%
+6.3%
-1.3%
+0.4%
+3.1%
+3.5%
+7.8%
+8.0%
+0.9%
+5.7%
+4.6%
+4.4%
+11.2%
+7.7%
+2.0%
+6.7%
-0.1%
+4.0%
+12.0%
+0.2%
-4.9%
+2.7%
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
12
Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
North
America
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
RPK
Latin
America/
Caribbean
Africa
Since 2010:
Asia/Pacific ranks 1st
Analysis
Since 2012:
Europe ranks 2nd
Middle East has
gained market share
every year
Passenger traffic:
Worldwide distribution (1/2)
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
13
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Passenger traffic:
Worldwide distribution (2/2)
2007
Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres
North America
32%
Asia/ Pacific
29%
Europe
27%
Middle East
6%
Latin America/
Caribbean
4%
Africa
2%
Asia/ Pacific
31%
Europe
27%
North America
26%
Middle East
9%
Latin America/
Caribbean
5%
Africa
2%
2013
1st: North America
2nd: Asia/Pacific
3rd: Europe
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: Europe
3rd: North America
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
14
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
North
America
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Asia/ Pacific
North
America
Europe
Middle East
traffic
share
in
terms
of
FTK
Latin America/
Caribbean
Africa
Asia/Pacific’s FTK
share is 40%
Analysis
Europe ranks clearly 2nd
Asia/Pacific declined in
2011 and 2012
in 2013:
Middle East has gained
market share every year
North America declined
Freight traffic:
Worldwide distribution (1/2)
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
15
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Asia/ Pacific
42%
North America
25%
Europe
23%
Middle East
6%
Latin America/
Caribbean
3%
Africa
1%
2007
Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: North America
3rd: Europe
1st: Asia/Pacific
2nd: Europe
3rd: North America
2013
Asia/ Pacific
40%
Europe
22%
North America
21%
Middle East
12%
Latin America/
Caribbean
3%
Africa
2%
Freight traffic:
Worldwide distribution (2/2)
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
16
Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
Total (international and domestic) services
- 100 200 300
United
Delta
Emirates
American
Southwest
Lufthansa
Air France
British Airways
China Southern
US Airways
Air China
Ryanair
China Eastern
Singapore Airlines
Cathay Pacific
RPK (billion)
- 0.5%
+ 2.0%
+ 15.8%
+ 1.6%
+5.4%
+ 1.3%
+ 0.5%
+ 4.7%
+ 8.6%
+ 6.0%
+ 8.7%
+ 6.7%
+ 10.9%
+ 2.6%
- 0.5%
Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 5 carriers from North America
- 5 carriers from Asia/Pacific
- 4 carriers from Europe
- 1 carrier from Middle East
- 2 low-cost carriers: Southwest and Ryanair
- Highest growth  Emirates
with +15.8 % RPK growth in 2013 vs 2012
World Top 15 Airlines in 2013
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI
0 100 200 300 400
Atlanta (ATL)
Chicago (ORD)
Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)
Los Angeles (LAX)
Denver (DEN)
Beijing (PEK)
Charlotte (CLT)
Las Vegas (LAS)
Houston (IAH)
Paris (CDG)
Frankfurt (FRA)
London (LHR)
Amsterdam (AMS)
Phoenix (PHX)
Philadelphia (PHL)
Departures (thousand)
- 2.1%
+ 0.6%
+ 4.3%
+ 1.6%
- 4.9%
+ 1.9%
+ 1.1%
- 1.3%
- 0.8%
- 3.9%
- 2.0%
- 0.7%
+ 0.6%
- 3.2%
- 2.0%
- 10 airports in North America
(including the Top 5)
- 4 airports in Europe
(3 of them recorded negative growth)
- 1 airport in Asia/Pacific:
Beijing (PEK)
World Top 15 Airports in 2013
Inter-region capacity offered
from Europe to the World
FROM EUROPE:
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 27%
23%
21%
20%
10%
33%
24%
17%
13%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 27%
23%
21%
20%
10%
33%
24%
17%
13%
13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
-6.6 pts
-1.5 pts
+3.8 pts
+6.9 pts
-2.7 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
to Middle East
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
- 1st destination : to North America (-6.6 pts)
- Fastest growth destinations during 2004-2013: to Middle East and to Africa  41% share in seats in 2013
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively balanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 19
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2013
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
Inter-region capacity offered
from Africa to the World
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
62%
29%
5%
3%
1%
69%
21%
6%
3%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
-7.1 pts
+8 pts
-0.4 pts
-0.4 pts
-0.1 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
62%
29%
5%
3%
1%
69%
21%
6%
3%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
FROM AFRICA:
- 1st destination : to Europe (-7.1 pts)  more than 60% of seats offered
- Fastest growth destination during 2004-2013: to Middle East  29% share in seats in 2013 (+8 pts)
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 20
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2013
Inter-region capacity offered
from Middle East to the World
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 45%
33%
17%
4%
1%
47%
35%
14%
3%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013 45%
33%
17%
4%
1%
47%
35%
14%
3%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
-1.7 pts
-2.2 pts
+2.2 pts
+1.2 pts
+0.6 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Asia/Pacific
to Europe
to Africa
to North America
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
FROM MIDDLE EAST:
- 1st destination : to Asia/Pacific (-1.7 pts)
- Fastest growth destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (UAE/Qatar to Brazil/Argentina)  few seats
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 21
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
Inter-region capacity offered
from Asia/Pacific to the World
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
39%
34%
24%
3%
0%
26%
38%
33%
2%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
39%
34%
24%
3%
0%
26%
38%
33%
2%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/
Caribbean
2013
2004
+13 pts
-3.8 pts
-9.6 pts
+0.4 pts
-0.1 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Middle East
to Europe
to North America
to Africa
to Latin America/ Caribbean
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
FROM ASIA/PACIFIC:
- 1st destination in 2013 : to Middle East (+13 pts)  to Middle East was 3rd in 2004
- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa  few seats to Africa
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 22
43%
33%
20%
3%
1%
45%
33%
21%
1%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
to Latin America/
Caribbean
to Europe
to Asia/Pacific
to Middle East
to Africa
2013
2004
-1.6 pts
-0.1 pts
-0.8 pts
+2.1 pts
+0.4 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to Latin America/ Caribbean
to Europe
to Asia/Pacific
to Middle East
to Africa
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
Inter-region capacity offered
from North America to the World
FROM NORTH AMERICA:
- 1st destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (-1.6 pts)
- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa  few seats offered
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 23
75%
23%
1%
1%
0%
77%
22%
0%
1%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
to North America
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
2013
2004
-1.7 pts
+0.8 pts
+0.8 pts
+0 pts
+0.1 pts
Share of seats offered (%)
2004
2013
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
to North America
to Europe
to Middle East
to Asia/Pacific
to Africa
seats
offered
(index
100
in
2004)
Inter-region capacity offered
from Latin America/Caribbean to the World
FROM LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN:
- 1st destination: to North America (-1.7 pts)  75% of seats offered
- Fastest growth destination: to Middle East  few seats offered
- Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 24
- Each airline of the Top 5 recorded an increase
- Turkish Airlines:
- +20% growth : Network expansion in 2013: +9 new States served, +26 cities served
- 5th largest airline in Europe in 2013
- Top 3 airports recorded each a decrease
Europe
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Paris (CDG)
Frankfurt (FRA)
London (LHR)
Amsterdam (AMS)
Istanbul (IST)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 50 100 150 200
Lufthansa
Air France
British Airways
Ryanair
Turkish Airlines
RPK (billion)
+ 1.3%*
+ 0.5%
+ 4.7%
+ 6.7%
+ 23.6%
*2013 vs. 2012
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Paris (CDG)
Frankfurt (FRA)
London (LHR)
Amsterdam (AMS)
Istanbul (IST)
Departures (thousand)
- 3.9%
- 2.0%
- 0.7%
+ 0.5%
+ 11.5%
Total (international and domestic) services
25
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
- 1st airline and 1st airport are South African
- Ethiopian Airlines: +20% RPK growth  2nd largest airline in 2013
- Each airport of the Top 5 recorded a decrease in 2013
- Africa: +4.4% RPK growth in 2013
Africa
Top 5 airlines - Top 5 airports
- 10 20 30
South African Airways
Ethiopian Airlines
Egypt Air
Royal Air Maroc
Kenya Airways
RPK (billion)
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
- 20 40 60 80 100 120
Johannesburg (JNB)
Cairo (CAI)
Lagos (LOS)
Nairobi (NBO)
Cape Town (CPT)
Departures (thousand)
- 10 20 30
South African Airways
Ethiopian Airlines
Egypt Air
Royal Air Maroc
Kenya Airways
RPK (billion)
- 0.5%*
+ 20.0%
+ 2.3%
+ 2.9%
- 2.8%
- 20 40 60 80 100 120
Johannesburg (JNB)
Cairo (CAI)
Lagos (LOS)
Nairobi (NBO)
Cape Town (CPT)
Departures (thousand)
- 0.5%
- 0.3%
- 10.4%
- 2.6%
- 4.5%
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services
26
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
Middle East
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
- 50 100 150 200 250
Emirates
Qatar Airways
Etihad Airways
Saudi Arabian Airlines
El Al
RPK (billion)
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 50 100 150 200
Dubai (DXB)
Doha (DOH)
Jeddah (JED)
Riyadh (RUH)
Abu Dhabi (AUH)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services
- All airlines and airports of the Top 5 recorded positive growth rates (except Jeddah airport)
- Double digit growth for the Top 3 airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways
- The Top 5 airlines represents more than 80% of the RPK in Middle East
- 50 100 150 200 250
Emirates
Qatar Airways
Etihad Airways
Saudi Arabian Airlines
El Al
RPK (billion)
+ 15.8%*
+ 11.0%
+ 19.0%
+ 7.4%
+ 3.5%
- 50 100 150 200
Dubai (DXB)
Doha (DOH)
Jeddah (JED)
Riyadh (RUH)
Abu Dhabi (AUH)
Departures (thousand)
+ 7.5%
+ 7.7%
- 2.3%
+ 5.1%
+ 11.2%
27
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
- Top 3 airlines: Only Chinese carriers
- Each airport of the Top 5 recorded an increase
- Beijing (PEK)  Largest airport in Asia/Pacific : 40% more departures than the 2nd
 2nd largest airport in the world
- Asia/Pacific : +7.7% RPK growth in 2013
Asia/Pacific
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 25 50 75 100 125 150
China Southern
Air China
China Eastern
Singapore Airlines
Cathay Pacific
RPK (billion)
+ 8.6%*
+ 8.6%
+ 11.3%
+ 2.6%
- 0.5%
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Beijing (PEK)
Tokyo (HND)
Jakarta (CGK)
Guangzhou (CAN)
Hong Kong (HKG)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
- 50 100 150 200 250 300
Beijing (PEK)
Tokyo (HND)
Jakarta (CGK)
Guangzhou (CAN)
Hong Kong (HKG)
Departures (thousand)
+ 1.9%
+ 3.1%
+ 4.7%
+ 5.7%
+ 5.7%
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services
28
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
- 100 200 300 400 500
Atlanta (ATL)
Chicago (ORD)
Los Angeles (LAX)
Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)
Denver (DEN)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 100 200 300
United
Delta
American
Southwest
US Airways
RPK (billion)
- 0.5%
+ 2.0%
+ 1.6%
+ 4.9%
+ 6.0%
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services
North America
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
- Atlanta airport: 1st airport in the world (departures and passengers) // -2.1% departures growth
- United airlines: 1st airline in the world (RPK) // -0.5% RPK growth
- US Airways and American Airlines merged in December 2013
- 100 200 300 400 500
Atlanta (ATL)
Chicago (ORD)
Los Angeles (LAX)
Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW)
Denver (DEN)
Departures (thousand)
- 2.1%
+ 0.6%
- 0.3%
+ 4.3%
- 4.9%
29
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
- LAN Chile: -9% RPK growth  5th in 2013, 3rd in 2012
- Copa: +16.3% RPK growth  received seven B737, network expansion (added frequencies and new destinations)
- Largest airport and strongest growth in the Top 5 airports: Mexico City (+5.0%)
Latin America and Caribbean
Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports
- 50 100 150 200
Mexico City (MEX)
Bogota (BOG)
São Paulo (GRU)
São Paulo (CGH)
Brasilia (BSB)
Departures (thousand)
Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services
Source: ACI
Note: scheduled services
Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates
- 20 40 60 80
TAM Airlines
GOL
Copa
Aeromexico
LAN Chile
RPK (billion)
*2013 vs. 2012
Total (international and domestic) services
+ 0.9%*
+ 7.6%
+ 16.3%
+ 10.9%
- 9.0%
- 50 100 150 200
Mexico City (MEX)
Bogota (BOG)
São Paulo (GRU)
São Paulo (CGH)
Brasilia (BSB)
Departures (thousand)
+ 5.0%
+ 1.0%
+ 3.8%
- 1.8%
- 7.8%
30
Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
Asia/ Pacific
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
Middle East
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
Africa
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
Europe
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LCC
Traffic
Share
by
number
of
Seats
North America
Low Cost Carriers in 2013
31
Scheduled commercial traffic
Percentage of States served by LCC - 2004 vs 2013
LCC Traffic Share by Region (intra-regional traffic)
22%
47%
79%
69%
62%
100%
37%
84%
94%
78%
100% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin
America/
Caribbean
Middle
East
North
America
2004 2013
Latin America/
Caribbean
+16
States
+7
States
Total (international and domestic) services
+3
States
+5
States
+8
States
- Largest LCC presence: Europe (37%) and Latin America/Caribbean (31%)
- Strongest growth: Asia/Pacific and Middle East (+17 pts in 10 years)
- Smallest LCC presence: Africa
- All States in Middle East have LCC presence in 2013
- 94% of States have LCC traffic in Europe in 2013
- Asia/Pacific : +16 new States served by LCCs
Source: ICAO, OAG 31
2013
Note: distribution in terms of number of seats intra-region
Low Cost Carriers in 2013
LCCs
7%
Legacy
carriers
93%
LCCs in
2004
3%
LCCs
21%
Legacy
carriers
79%
LCCs in
2004
4%
LCCs
40%
Legacy
carriers
60%
LCCs in
2004
20%
LCCs
37%
Legacy
carriers
63%
LCCs in
2004
26%
LCCs
18%
Legacy
carriers
82%
LCCs in
2004
1%
LCCs
31%
Legacy
carriers
69%
LCCs in
2004
24%
Scheduled commercial traffic
Total (international and domestic) services
Source: ICAO, OAG 32
Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”
Scheduled passenger traffic
33
Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO”
Scheduled freight traffic
34
Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
The Monthly Monitor
• Published every month
on ICAO website:
http://www.icao.int/sust
ainability/Pages/AT-
MonthlyMonitor.aspx
• Outlook and analysis of
passenger and freight
traffic
• Top 15 airports and
airlines
• Evolution of the capacity
by region
35
© ICAO All rights reserved.
This document and all information
contained herein is the sole property of
ICAO. No intellectual property rights are
granted by the delivery of this document or
the disclosure of its content. This
document shall not be reproduced or
disclosed to a third party without prior
permission of ICAO. This document and its
content shall not be used for any purpose
other than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein are based on
the mentioned assumptions and are
expressed in good faith. Where the
supporting grounds for these statements
are not shown, ICAO will be pleased to
explain the basis thereof.

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2 - State of the Air Transport.pptx

  • 1. State of the Air Transport in 2013 ICAO Aviation Data Analyses Seminar Middle East (MID) Regional Office 27-29 October Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) Section Air Transport Bureau (ATB) ICAO Strategic Objective: Economic Development of Air Transport
  • 2. 2 The air transport industry The air transport industry is not only • a vital engine of global socio-economic growth • but is also of vital importance as a catalyst for economic development, – creating direct and indirect employment, – supporting tourism and local businesses, and – stimulating foreign investment and international trade.
  • 3. Economic benefits of aviation 58.1million Jobs supported by aviation worldwide Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014 $2.4 trillion Global economic impact* *including direct, indirect, induced and tourism catalytic 3
  • 4. World international cargo shipment Volume of world international cargo shipment Value of world international cargo shipment Aviation Aviation Surface modes Surface modes 4 Source: Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), 2014
  • 5. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 1.9% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 Economic development in 2013 Real GDP Quarter-on-Quarter growth (2013 vs. 2012) GDP growth rate +2.5% = 2013 vs. 2012 Real GDP annual growth Economic growth recorded an increasing trend over the successive quarterly growth rates of 2013 5 Source: IHS Global Insight
  • 6. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Turboprop Turbojet - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Turboprop Turbojet 85% 88% Number of aircraft* *Active and parked aircraft are included; aircraft having a maximum take-off mass of less than 9 000 kg (20 000 lbs) are not included Commercial air transport fleet in 2013 Turbojets: - 88% of world fleet in 2013 - this share increased every year since 2004 2013: - 1 500 aircraft deliveries - More than 3000 aircraft net orders for the world’s major aircraft manufacturer 6 Source: Reed Business Information (RBI), aircraft manufacturer websites
  • 7. 706 717 687 692 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2012 2013 Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Operating result US dollars (billion) 706 717 687 692 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2012 2013 Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Operating result US dollars (billion) 706 717 687 692 2.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2012 2013 Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Operating result Operating results (% of Revenues) US dollars (billion) Airline operating revenues in 2013: 717 billion USD +1.7% vs. 2012 Airline operating results in 2013: 3.5% of operating revenues +0.9 p.p.* vs. 2012 *percentage points Air carrier financial results in 2013 7 Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
  • 8. - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion) - 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Oil crisis Gulf crisis Asian crisis Iran-Iraq war SARS 9/11 terrorist attack World recession Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion) Air Transport Development 5.8trillion RPK +5.5% growth rate vs. 2012 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 8 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
  • 9. 9 2013 - State of Air Transport Annual analysis on a world and regional level • 63 pages of comprehensive analysis and key figures of air transport For each ICAO Statistical Region: • Passenger and cargo traffic for 2011, 2012 and 2013 • Top 15 States, airlines and airports in 2013 • Evolution of LCC market penetration in the last 10 years
  • 10. World Air Transport in 2013 10 3.1billion Passengers carried 32 million Commercial flights performed 5.8trillion Revenue Passenger-Kilometres 186billion Freight Tonne-Kilometres +4.5% vs. 2012 +1.2% vs. 2012 +0.4% vs. 2012 +5.5% vs. 2012 Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 10 Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
  • 12. World Air Transport in 2013 by Region 12 3.1billion Passengers carried 32 million Commercial flights performed 5.8trillion Revenue Passenger-Kilometres 186billion Freight Tonne-Kilometres +4.5% vs. 2012 +1.2% vs. 2012 +0.4% vs. 2012 +5.5% vs. 2012 41.5 3.1 22.6 74.0 39.1 5.3 Europe Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific North America Latin America and Caribbean 7.9 0.9 1.1 8.6 11.0 2.6 Europe Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific North America Latin America and Caribbean 817 73 161 1,008 815 230 Europe Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific North America Latin America and Caribbean 1,556 134 500 1,785 1,505 303 Europe Africa Middle East Asia and Pacific North America Latin America and Caribbean Passengers carried (million) Aircraft departures (million) Revenue Passenger-Kilometres (billion) Freight Tonne-Kilometres (billion) -0.4% -0.4% +4.9% +6.3% -1.3% +0.4% +3.1% +3.5% +7.8% +8.0% +0.9% +5.7% +4.6% +4.4% +11.2% +7.7% +2.0% +6.7% -0.1% +4.0% +12.0% +0.2% -4.9% +2.7% Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 12 Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council 2013
  • 13. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 traffic share in terms of RPK Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 traffic share in terms of RPK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Middle East traffic share in terms of RPK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of RPK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia/ Pacific Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of RPK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia/ Pacific North America Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of RPK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa Since 2010: Asia/Pacific ranks 1st Analysis Since 2012: Europe ranks 2nd Middle East has gained market share every year Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution (1/2) Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 13 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
  • 14. Passenger traffic: Worldwide distribution (2/2) 2007 Distribution in Revenue Passenger-Kilometres North America 32% Asia/ Pacific 29% Europe 27% Middle East 6% Latin America/ Caribbean 4% Africa 2% Asia/ Pacific 31% Europe 27% North America 26% Middle East 9% Latin America/ Caribbean 5% Africa 2% 2013 1st: North America 2nd: Asia/Pacific 3rd: Europe 1st: Asia/Pacific 2nd: Europe 3rd: North America Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 14 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
  • 15. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 traffic share in terms of FTK Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 traffic share in terms of FTK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Middle East traffic share in terms of FTK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of FTK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 North America Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of FTK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Asia/ Pacific North America Europe Middle East traffic share in terms of FTK Latin America/ Caribbean Africa Asia/Pacific’s FTK share is 40% Analysis Europe ranks clearly 2nd Asia/Pacific declined in 2011 and 2012 in 2013: Middle East has gained market share every year North America declined Freight traffic: Worldwide distribution (1/2) Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 15 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
  • 16. Asia/ Pacific 42% North America 25% Europe 23% Middle East 6% Latin America/ Caribbean 3% Africa 1% 2007 Distribution in Freight Tonne-Kilometres 1st: Asia/Pacific 2nd: North America 3rd: Europe 1st: Asia/Pacific 2nd: Europe 3rd: North America 2013 Asia/ Pacific 40% Europe 22% North America 21% Middle East 12% Latin America/ Caribbean 3% Africa 2% Freight traffic: Worldwide distribution (2/2) Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services 16 Source: ICAO Annual Reports of the Council
  • 17. Total (international and domestic) services - 100 200 300 United Delta Emirates American Southwest Lufthansa Air France British Airways China Southern US Airways Air China Ryanair China Eastern Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific RPK (billion) - 0.5% + 2.0% + 15.8% + 1.6% +5.4% + 1.3% + 0.5% + 4.7% + 8.6% + 6.0% + 8.7% + 6.7% + 10.9% + 2.6% - 0.5% Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 5 carriers from North America - 5 carriers from Asia/Pacific - 4 carriers from Europe - 1 carrier from Middle East - 2 low-cost carriers: Southwest and Ryanair - Highest growth  Emirates with +15.8 % RPK growth in 2013 vs 2012 World Top 15 Airlines in 2013
  • 18. Total (international and domestic) services Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI 0 100 200 300 400 Atlanta (ATL) Chicago (ORD) Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) Los Angeles (LAX) Denver (DEN) Beijing (PEK) Charlotte (CLT) Las Vegas (LAS) Houston (IAH) Paris (CDG) Frankfurt (FRA) London (LHR) Amsterdam (AMS) Phoenix (PHX) Philadelphia (PHL) Departures (thousand) - 2.1% + 0.6% + 4.3% + 1.6% - 4.9% + 1.9% + 1.1% - 1.3% - 0.8% - 3.9% - 2.0% - 0.7% + 0.6% - 3.2% - 2.0% - 10 airports in North America (including the Top 5) - 4 airports in Europe (3 of them recorded negative growth) - 1 airport in Asia/Pacific: Beijing (PEK) World Top 15 Airports in 2013
  • 19. Inter-region capacity offered from Europe to the World FROM EUROPE: 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 27% 23% 21% 20% 10% 33% 24% 17% 13% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 27% 23% 21% 20% 10% 33% 24% 17% 13% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 -6.6 pts -1.5 pts +3.8 pts +6.9 pts -2.7 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Asia/Pacific to Africa to Middle East to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) - 1st destination : to North America (-6.6 pts) - Fastest growth destinations during 2004-2013: to Middle East and to Africa  41% share in seats in 2013 - Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively balanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 19
  • 20. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2013 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) Inter-region capacity offered from Africa to the World 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 62% 29% 5% 3% 1% 69% 21% 6% 3% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 -7.1 pts +8 pts -0.4 pts -0.4 pts -0.1 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 62% 29% 5% 3% 1% 69% 21% 6% 3% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) FROM AFRICA: - 1st destination : to Europe (-7.1 pts)  more than 60% of seats offered - Fastest growth destination during 2004-2013: to Middle East  29% share in seats in 2013 (+8 pts) - Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 20
  • 21. 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2013 Inter-region capacity offered from Middle East to the World 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 45% 33% 17% 4% 1% 47% 35% 14% 3% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 45% 33% 17% 4% 1% 47% 35% 14% 3% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 -1.7 pts -2.2 pts +2.2 pts +1.2 pts +0.6 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Asia/Pacific to Europe to Africa to North America to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) FROM MIDDLE EAST: - 1st destination : to Asia/Pacific (-1.7 pts) - Fastest growth destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (UAE/Qatar to Brazil/Argentina)  few seats - Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 21
  • 22. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) Inter-region capacity offered from Asia/Pacific to the World 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 39% 34% 24% 3% 0% 26% 38% 33% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 39% 34% 24% 3% 0% 26% 38% 33% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean 2013 2004 +13 pts -3.8 pts -9.6 pts +0.4 pts -0.1 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Middle East to Europe to North America to Africa to Latin America/ Caribbean seats offered (index 100 in 2004) FROM ASIA/PACIFIC: - 1st destination in 2013 : to Middle East (+13 pts)  to Middle East was 3rd in 2004 - Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa  few seats to Africa - Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 22
  • 23. 43% 33% 20% 3% 1% 45% 33% 21% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% to Latin America/ Caribbean to Europe to Asia/Pacific to Middle East to Africa 2013 2004 -1.6 pts -0.1 pts -0.8 pts +2.1 pts +0.4 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to Latin America/ Caribbean to Europe to Asia/Pacific to Middle East to Africa seats offered (index 100 in 2004) Inter-region capacity offered from North America to the World FROM NORTH AMERICA: - 1st destination: to Latin America/Caribbean (-1.6 pts) - Fastest growth destination: to Middle East and to Africa  few seats offered - Distribution of seats offered among regions is relatively unbalanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 23
  • 24. 75% 23% 1% 1% 0% 77% 22% 0% 1% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% to North America to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to Africa 2013 2004 -1.7 pts +0.8 pts +0.8 pts +0 pts +0.1 pts Share of seats offered (%) 2004 2013 80 180 280 380 480 580 680 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 to North America to Europe to Middle East to Asia/Pacific to Africa seats offered (index 100 in 2004) Inter-region capacity offered from Latin America/Caribbean to the World FROM LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN: - 1st destination: to North America (-1.7 pts)  75% of seats offered - Fastest growth destination: to Middle East  few seats offered - Distribution of seats offered among regions is very unbalanced Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Note: direct and non-direct flight excluding restrictions - Source: OAG 24
  • 25. - Each airline of the Top 5 recorded an increase - Turkish Airlines: - +20% growth : Network expansion in 2013: +9 new States served, +26 cities served - 5th largest airline in Europe in 2013 - Top 3 airports recorded each a decrease Europe Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Paris (CDG) Frankfurt (FRA) London (LHR) Amsterdam (AMS) Istanbul (IST) Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 50 100 150 200 Lufthansa Air France British Airways Ryanair Turkish Airlines RPK (billion) + 1.3%* + 0.5% + 4.7% + 6.7% + 23.6% *2013 vs. 2012 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Paris (CDG) Frankfurt (FRA) London (LHR) Amsterdam (AMS) Istanbul (IST) Departures (thousand) - 3.9% - 2.0% - 0.7% + 0.5% + 11.5% Total (international and domestic) services 25 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 26. - 1st airline and 1st airport are South African - Ethiopian Airlines: +20% RPK growth  2nd largest airline in 2013 - Each airport of the Top 5 recorded a decrease in 2013 - Africa: +4.4% RPK growth in 2013 Africa Top 5 airlines - Top 5 airports - 10 20 30 South African Airways Ethiopian Airlines Egypt Air Royal Air Maroc Kenya Airways RPK (billion) Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Johannesburg (JNB) Cairo (CAI) Lagos (LOS) Nairobi (NBO) Cape Town (CPT) Departures (thousand) - 10 20 30 South African Airways Ethiopian Airlines Egypt Air Royal Air Maroc Kenya Airways RPK (billion) - 0.5%* + 20.0% + 2.3% + 2.9% - 2.8% - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Johannesburg (JNB) Cairo (CAI) Lagos (LOS) Nairobi (NBO) Cape Town (CPT) Departures (thousand) - 0.5% - 0.3% - 10.4% - 2.6% - 4.5% *2013 vs. 2012 Total (international and domestic) services 26 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 27. Middle East Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports - 50 100 150 200 250 Emirates Qatar Airways Etihad Airways Saudi Arabian Airlines El Al RPK (billion) Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 50 100 150 200 Dubai (DXB) Doha (DOH) Jeddah (JED) Riyadh (RUH) Abu Dhabi (AUH) Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI *2013 vs. 2012 Total (international and domestic) services - All airlines and airports of the Top 5 recorded positive growth rates (except Jeddah airport) - Double digit growth for the Top 3 airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways - The Top 5 airlines represents more than 80% of the RPK in Middle East - 50 100 150 200 250 Emirates Qatar Airways Etihad Airways Saudi Arabian Airlines El Al RPK (billion) + 15.8%* + 11.0% + 19.0% + 7.4% + 3.5% - 50 100 150 200 Dubai (DXB) Doha (DOH) Jeddah (JED) Riyadh (RUH) Abu Dhabi (AUH) Departures (thousand) + 7.5% + 7.7% - 2.3% + 5.1% + 11.2% 27 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 28. - Top 3 airlines: Only Chinese carriers - Each airport of the Top 5 recorded an increase - Beijing (PEK)  Largest airport in Asia/Pacific : 40% more departures than the 2nd  2nd largest airport in the world - Asia/Pacific : +7.7% RPK growth in 2013 Asia/Pacific Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 25 50 75 100 125 150 China Southern Air China China Eastern Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific RPK (billion) + 8.6%* + 8.6% + 11.3% + 2.6% - 0.5% - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Beijing (PEK) Tokyo (HND) Jakarta (CGK) Guangzhou (CAN) Hong Kong (HKG) Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI - 50 100 150 200 250 300 Beijing (PEK) Tokyo (HND) Jakarta (CGK) Guangzhou (CAN) Hong Kong (HKG) Departures (thousand) + 1.9% + 3.1% + 4.7% + 5.7% + 5.7% *2013 vs. 2012 Total (international and domestic) services 28 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 29. - 100 200 300 400 500 Atlanta (ATL) Chicago (ORD) Los Angeles (LAX) Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) Denver (DEN) Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 100 200 300 United Delta American Southwest US Airways RPK (billion) - 0.5% + 2.0% + 1.6% + 4.9% + 6.0% *2013 vs. 2012 Total (international and domestic) services North America Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports - Atlanta airport: 1st airport in the world (departures and passengers) // -2.1% departures growth - United airlines: 1st airline in the world (RPK) // -0.5% RPK growth - US Airways and American Airlines merged in December 2013 - 100 200 300 400 500 Atlanta (ATL) Chicago (ORD) Los Angeles (LAX) Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) Denver (DEN) Departures (thousand) - 2.1% + 0.6% - 0.3% + 4.3% - 4.9% 29 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 30. - LAN Chile: -9% RPK growth  5th in 2013, 3rd in 2012 - Copa: +16.3% RPK growth  received seven B737, network expansion (added frequencies and new destinations) - Largest airport and strongest growth in the Top 5 airports: Mexico City (+5.0%) Latin America and Caribbean Top 5 airlines and Top 5 airports - 50 100 150 200 Mexico City (MEX) Bogota (BOG) São Paulo (GRU) São Paulo (CGH) Brasilia (BSB) Departures (thousand) Note: scheduled and non-scheduled services Source: ACI Note: scheduled services Source: ICAO Form A and ICAO estimates - 20 40 60 80 TAM Airlines GOL Copa Aeromexico LAN Chile RPK (billion) *2013 vs. 2012 Total (international and domestic) services + 0.9%* + 7.6% + 16.3% + 10.9% - 9.0% - 50 100 150 200 Mexico City (MEX) Bogota (BOG) São Paulo (GRU) São Paulo (CGH) Brasilia (BSB) Departures (thousand) + 5.0% + 1.0% + 3.8% - 1.8% - 7.8% 30 Top 5 airlines Top 5 airports
  • 31. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats Asia/ Pacific 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats Middle East 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats Africa 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats Europe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 LCC Traffic Share by number of Seats North America Low Cost Carriers in 2013 31 Scheduled commercial traffic Percentage of States served by LCC - 2004 vs 2013 LCC Traffic Share by Region (intra-regional traffic) 22% 47% 79% 69% 62% 100% 37% 84% 94% 78% 100% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Africa Asia/Pacific Europe Latin America/ Caribbean Middle East North America 2004 2013 Latin America/ Caribbean +16 States +7 States Total (international and domestic) services +3 States +5 States +8 States - Largest LCC presence: Europe (37%) and Latin America/Caribbean (31%) - Strongest growth: Asia/Pacific and Middle East (+17 pts in 10 years) - Smallest LCC presence: Africa - All States in Middle East have LCC presence in 2013 - 94% of States have LCC traffic in Europe in 2013 - Asia/Pacific : +16 new States served by LCCs Source: ICAO, OAG 31
  • 32. 2013 Note: distribution in terms of number of seats intra-region Low Cost Carriers in 2013 LCCs 7% Legacy carriers 93% LCCs in 2004 3% LCCs 21% Legacy carriers 79% LCCs in 2004 4% LCCs 40% Legacy carriers 60% LCCs in 2004 20% LCCs 37% Legacy carriers 63% LCCs in 2004 26% LCCs 18% Legacy carriers 82% LCCs in 2004 1% LCCs 31% Legacy carriers 69% LCCs in 2004 24% Scheduled commercial traffic Total (international and domestic) services Source: ICAO, OAG 32
  • 33. Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO” Scheduled passenger traffic 33 Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
  • 34. Long-term air traffic forecasts: “GATO” Scheduled freight traffic 34 Source: Cir 333, Global Air Transport Outlook to 2030 - GATO
  • 35. The Monthly Monitor • Published every month on ICAO website: http://www.icao.int/sust ainability/Pages/AT- MonthlyMonitor.aspx • Outlook and analysis of passenger and freight traffic • Top 15 airports and airlines • Evolution of the capacity by region 35
  • 36. © ICAO All rights reserved. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of ICAO. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without prior permission of ICAO. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, ICAO will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.