The GMF 2022-2041 connects the drivers for air transport demand (GDP, demographics…) with existing measures related to decarbonisation of the sector such as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) usage and CO2-prices.

1. Toulouse - 08 July 2022
Global Market Forecast 2022
Stan Shparberg and Bob Lange

2. Global Market Forecast 2022
People want and need to travel
Supporting economies
Ensuring connectivity
Enabling tourism
Linking families and friends
Reconnecting cultures and societies

3. Global Market Forecast 2022
Source: OAG, FR24, SABRE, IATA, Airbus GMF
3
Domestic leg traffic RPK compared to 2019
Air traffic is recovering continuously with a few, notable exceptions
International leg traffic RPK compared to 2019

4. Recovery trend confirmed despite
recent events (Omicron wave, war)
Lower boundary of recovery
‘corridor’ includes risk of further
waves
Global Market Forecast 2022
Source: Sabre, OAG, FR24, IATA, Airbus GMF
4
World air traffic (RPK versus equivalent month in 2019)
Air traffic recovery to 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025

5. Airlines require the latest, most efficient and lowest-emission aircraft
Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only - Year end / / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, 737Max, 777X, 787
Previous generation: A300, A310, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, MD11, MD80, MD90, F100, A320 Fam., A330, A340
Fleet modernisation:
A strategic hedge against high energy costs
80% of fleet not yet latest generation
% of in-service fleet by aircraft generation
20%
13%
Global Market Forecast 2022
5%

6. Freighter
Single-Aisle Widebody
Backlog:
5,829 aircraft
Backlog:
544 aircraft
Backlog:
423 aircraft
Backlog: 196 aircraft
Backlog:
31 aircraft
Airbus product line delivers 20 - 40% fuel burn reduction
End of June 2022

7. ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft deliveries over 2022-2041
7
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
Note: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t
Global Market Forecast 2022
Gross Domestic Product
2019-2041 CAGR
2.6%
Passenger Traffic
2019-2041 CAGR
3.6%
Freight Traffic
2019-2041 CAGR
3.2%
Beginning 2020 fleet in service (Pre-Covid) 22,880
2041 fleet in service 46,930

8. Global Market Forecast 2022
Fundamental drivers unchanged, but some becoming more relevant
8

9. Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
9 Global Market Forecast 2022
Short-term pressures apparent but likely to normalise within a few years
* Consumer Price Index

10. 10
Now 2050
EXPLORATORY (forecast)
NORMATIVE (backcast)
From the
current state
of knowledge
From the
defined target
Global Market Forecast 2022
GMF 2022
STEPS - Stated Policies Scenario
APS - Announced Pledges Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario - SDS
Net Zero Emission - NZE
GMF 2022 is an exploratory scenario

11. Global Market Forecast 2022
Source: IATA, Airbus GMF
11
Share of energy cost in airline operating costs is growing
Unit cost ($ cents per RPK - 2019) Share fuel cost (%)

12. Global Market Forecast 2022
Source: IHS, IEA/WEO 2021, Airbus GMF
12
Blended Jet Fuel price incl. CO2
prices ($ per barrel - 2019)
Regional
or national
spread
100% fossil fuel for all regions
at very comparable prices
World weighted average
SAF & CO2
prices impact energy cost assumptions in GMF 2022

13. CAGR 2019 - 2041: 2.6%
Global Market Forecast 2022
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
13
World GDP ($ trillion - 2015)
GDP projection has been reviewed upward since GMF 2021
Despite war in Ukraine generating downward pressure
2041 World GDP ($ trillion - 2015)
- 5.5%
+ 1.6%

14. 14
World international trade ($ trillion - 2015)
Source: IHS Markit, Airbus GMF
Strong demand for air cargo
supported by world trade growth
Forecast
World
GDP
World
international
trade
Global Market Forecast 2022
World international trade is expected to double in the next 20 years

15. 15
World air cargo traffic +3.2% CAGR 2019-2041
215 billion
FTK
2041
430 billion
FTK
2019
Express
boosted by e-commerce
2019-2041 CAGR +4.9%
General cargo
dominates the market
2019-2041 CAGR +2.7%
Express
25%
General 83%
General 75%
Express
17%
Source: IHS Markit, Seabury, IATA, Airbus GMF
Global Market Forecast 2022
Express air cargo growth will outpace General air cargo

16. 16
Number of aircraft
Source: Airbus GMF
Note: Freighters with a payload above 10t
Grow
Deliveries and
Conversions
3,070
Replace
Stay
(incl. 2020/21 deliveries)
• 2,030 aircraft in-service
beginning of 2020:
– 31% will stay in-service
(including 2020 & 2021
deliveries)
– 69% will be replaced
• Demand for 2,440 new-build or
converted freighters over
2022-2041
Global Market Forecast 2022
World freighter fleet in service will reach 3,070 aircraft by 2041

17. 17 Global Market Forecast 2022
990 aircraft 890 aircraft 560 aircraft
Single-Aisle
(10t - 40t)
Mid-size Widebody
(40t - 80t)
Large Widebody
(> 80t)
Global demand for ~2,440 freighters, over 2022-2041

18. Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF
18 Global Market Forecast 2022
World annual traffic (RPK trillion)
Passenger traffic expected to grow at 3.6% from 2019 to 2041

19. Source: Airbus GMF
19 Global Market Forecast 2022
Mature flows will grow by approx. 2-3% per year
CAGR 2019-2041 (%)
Annual RPK (billions)
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

20. Source: Airbus GMF
20 Global Market Forecast 2022
Strong growth from Asia, domestic PRC to become the largest flow
CAGR 2019-2041 (%)
Annual RPK (billions)
Top 20 traffic flows (RPK)

21. Source: Airbus GMF
Notes: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t
21
Number of aircraft
• 22,880 aircraft in-service
beginning of 2020:
– 33% will stay in-service
(including 2020 & 2021
deliveries)
– 67% will be replaced
• 39,490 new deliveries 2022-2041:
– 60% for growth
– 40% for replacement
Grow
New deliveries
46,930
Replace
Stay
(incl. 2020/21 deliveries)
Global Market Forecast 2022
Demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft

22. 22
1000
100
10
0
Number of aircraft (Shade of blue
proportional to number of aircraft)
Distance (nm)
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF
Typically Single-Aisle
Typically Widebody
Single-Aisle or Widebody
Global Market Forecast 2022
Aircraft are utilised flexibly across the full scope of airline operations
2019 operations
Seats

23. 23
Source: Airbus GMF
Note: Demand for passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t
31,620 aircraft
80% share of total new del.
7,870 aircraft
20% share of total new del.
Typically Single-Aisle Typically Widebody
Global Market Forecast 2022
Global demand for ~39,500 new passenger & freighter aircraft

24. Global Market Forecast 2022
~39,500 new deliveries between 2022 and 2041
24
80% typically Single Aisle - 20% typically Widebody
North America
Latin America
Africa
Europe & CIS
Middle East
PRC
Asia/Pacific
(excl. PRC)
Typical Single Aisle
Typical Widebody
Source: Airbus GMF
Notes: Passenger aircraft above 100 seats & freighters with a payload above 10t

25. * Western built passenger aircraft above 100 seats – pax aircraft only / **1st generation: A300, DC 9, DC10, 707, 727, 737, 747 / 2nd generation: A310, MD11, MD80, MD90,737, 747, 757, 767, F100
Previous generation: A320 Fam., A330, A340, 717,737NG, 747, 777 / New generation: A220, A320neo Fam., A330neo, A350, A380, 737Max, 777X, 787 & new programs
Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF
25
By 2041, new generation passenger aircraft will represent >95% of the fIeet
Number of passenger aircraft in service*

26. 26 Global Market Forecast 2022
Global Market Forecast 2022-2041
● Air traffic demand is coming back strongly as the world adapts to Covid.
Traffic will recover to 2019 levels between 2023 and 2025
● GMF 2022 integrates effects of rising energy costs and stated policies
● Passenger traffic growth 3.6% CAGR
Freight traffic growth 3.2% CAGR
● ~39,500 new aircraft deliveries will be needed, of which >2,400 new and converted freighters
● ~80% will typically be Single-Aisle aircraft and ~20% will be Widebodies
● Only 20% of today’s fleet are latest generation

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