globalaviationaerospace.com Demand for air travel Network and traffic forecast Demand for passenger aircraft Freighter forecast

1. Global Market Forecast
Flying by
Numbers
2015 2034

2. Introduction
For this year’s Global Market
Forecast we have chosen the
theme of equations and numbers.
It seemed appropriate as the
economists and data analysts
working on Airbus’ forecasts
spend much of their day either
searching for and evaluating new,
complementary and relevant
sources of data; then trying to find
ways to use these numbers more
effectively to improve the reliability
and validity of our analyses and
forecasts. They rely daily on
equations and ever more capable
softwaretoolstoachievethis.
But more than this, a key part of
theirworkistocheckandchallenge
the methodologies used and the
analyses produced against real
world behaviours of passengers
and airlines alike. Their aim is to
identify a market-based vision of
airtransportoverthenext20years
backed up by rigorous data, clear
graphicsandindustryinsight.
The numbers resulting from our
equations will in time become real
passengers and aircraft, and their
worldwide flows will drive aviation
infrastructureandinvestment.
It may sound a little geeky to quote
thephilosopherandmathematician
Plato, but he got it right when he
said “A good decision is based on
knowledge and not on numbers”
Our aim is to apply knowledge to
numbers and through the GMF to
sharethiswithyou.
We hope that you find the 2015
GlobalMarketForecastinformative
and useful. We seek to improve
our analyses continually, and
your questions, challenges and
suggestions help us advance
towardsthatgoal.Don’tforgetyou
can download our App in several
formatsfromtablettosmartphone.
It complements the forecast
and includes our thoughts in an
interactiveformat.
As usual this is best read on
an aeroplane, perhaps taking
advantage of the quiet, smooth
comfort of your next A380 flight.
Enjoy!
“WE ARE FOCUSED ON OUR LONG-TERM FUTURE
MORE THAN EVER BEFORE.”
Fabrice Brégier CEO Airbus
002Flying by Numbers

3. Network and
traffic forecast
018
Freighter
forecast
080
Demand
for air travel
012
Demand
by region
050
P.052 Asia-Pacific
P.056 Europe
P.060 North America
P.064 Middle East
P.068 Latin America Carribbean
P.072 CIS
P.076 Africa
Summary
methodology
088
Executive
summary
004
Demand for
passenger aircraft
042

4. Executive
summary

5. Passenger
traffic growth
next 20 years
4.6% AAGR
Freight traffic
growth
4.4% AAGR
Passenger
deliveries
( 100 seats)
2015-2034
31,781
New freighters
2015-2034
804
Passenger
New freighter
deliveries
2015-2034
32,585
Freighter fleet
2014
1,633
2034
2,687
+1,054
Passenger fleet
2014
17,354
2034
35,749
+18,395
Traffic double
Pax fleet double
Demand for
32,585 New pax
Freight aircraft
Value of Demand
$4.9 trillion
007Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers006

6. World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2034202920242019201420092004199919941989198419791974
x 2
Air traffic has doubled
every 15 years
Air traffic will double
in the next 15 years
ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2034Beginning 2015
19,000
38,500
Growth
Replacement
Stay
in service
19,500
13,100
5,900
Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034
32,600
New
aircraft
AIRTRAFFICWILLDOUBLEIN
THENEXT15YEARS
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometers
DEMANDFORSOME32,600NEWPASSENGERANDFREIGHTERAIRCRAFT
Source: Airbus
Notes: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes
2014-2034
4.6%
New Deliveries
32,600
GMF 2015-2034
20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft
% units
% value
25%
43%
5%
12%
70%
45%
0
5,000
1,0000
1,5000
2,0000
2,5000
Very Large AircraftTwin-aisleSingle-aisle
22,900
8,100
1,600
SINGLE-AISLE:70%OFUNITS;
WIDE-BODIES:55%OFVALUE
Passenger aircraft (≥100 seats)
and jet freight aircraft (10 tons)
Source: Airbus GMF May 2015
PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER DELIVERIES
009Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers008

7. •Passengertraffictogrowat4.6%peryearto2034
•Traffictodoubleinthenext15yearsasinthepast
• Giving15.2trillionRPKsby2034
•“DomesticChina”tobecomethelargestsinglepassengertrafficflow
•International long–haul traffic expected to grow faster than
domesticandinternationalshort-haul,takinga45%shareby2034
•MostdeliveriestogotoAsia-Pacific,12,596passengerandfreighter
aircraft
•NorthAmericaandEurope37%,or11,909aircraft
•1,552passengeraircraftforecasttobeconvertedtofreighters
•Nearly 14,000 aircraft will be retired to be replaced by more
eco-efficienttypes
2015-
2024
2025-
2034
2015-
2034
SHARE OF 2015-2034
NEW DELIVERIES
AFRICA 460 657 1,117 3%
ASIA-
PACIFIC 4,986 7,610 12,596 39%
CIS
577 711 1,288 4%
EUROPE 3,375 2,990 6,365 20%
LATIN
AMERICA
1,111 1,399 2,510 8%
MIDDLE
EAST
1,174 1,187 2,361 7%
NORTH
AMERICA
2,972 2,572 5,544 17%
FREIGHTERS 463 341 804 2%
WORLD 15,118 17,467 32,585 100%
Asia-Pacific alone to take
39% deliveries
North America/Europe
37% deliveries
Single-aisle 70% of deliveries
Wide-body 55% by value
11,834 Pax aircraft Replaced
by more Eco-efficient types
NEWAIRCRAFTDEMANDPASSENGERANDFREIGHTERS DEMANDFORMORETHAN32,500NEWAIRCRAFT
Passenger aircraft (≥100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (10 tons)
Converted
Remarketed
stay
in service
31,781
32,585
1,552
3,968
804
11,834
13,135
1,301
Passenger
Fleet
New
Deliveries
Retired
Freighter
Fleet
011Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers010

8. Flying by Numbers012 013Flying by Numbers
Demand for
air travel

9. KEY DRIVERS FOR AIR TRAFFIC GROWTH
• Economic growth
• Increasing urbanisation
• Expanding middle class
• Rise in international students, migration and tourism
• Trade
• Growing mega-cities, centres for people, wealth, and aviation
• Liberalisation and bi-lateral air service agreements
AIRTRANSPORTGROWTHISHIGHESTINEXPANDINGREGIONS
Yearly RPK
growth
2015-2034
+5.8%
China
India
Middle East
Asia
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Eastern Europe
6.3billion
people
2014
EMERGING/
DEVELOPING
Yearly RPK
growth
2015-2034
+3.8%Western Europe
North America
Japan
1billion
people
2014
ADVANCED
LIBERALISATIONANDGLOBALISATIONHAVEDRIVEN
WORLDTRAFFICGROWTH
Sources: ICAO WASA database, Airbus
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
20102005200019951990198519801975197019651960195519501945
Number of bilateral air services agreements in the World
More than
2,550
BILATERAL AIR
SERVICE
AGREEMENTS
BETWEEN
MORE THAN
170 COUNTRIES,
ALMOST 15,000
POSSIBLE
COUNTRY-PAIRS
015Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers014

10. MIDDLECLASSTOGROW,DOUBLINGIN
EMERGINGCOUNTRIES
Sources: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2015
* Households with yearly income between $20,000
and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices
• Economic and population growth in emerging markets will help to
drive traffic growth beyond more mature markets
• Themiddleclassessettodoubleinemergingmarkets,alsoglobal
share of private consumption in emerging markets set to grow from
31% today to 43% in 3034, both factors to drive aviation growth
• Liberalisation and visa process simplification stimulating air
traffic growth
• By 2034, on a per capita basis, the people of China will be flying
as much as European’s today
• More than 2,500 air service agreements between +170 countries
enables almost 15,000 possible city pairs
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2034202420142004
28% 46% 55%37%
1,792
2,703
3,671
4,721
1,120
2,001
2,936
3,977
247 259 263 264
425 444 471 480
Middle Class*, millions of people
6,400 8,000 8,6007,200
World population
% of World population
History Forecast
Propensity
to travel
74%OF THE POPULATION
OF THE EMERGING
COUNTRIES WILL
TAKE A TRIP
A YEAR IN
2034
2014 real GDP per capita
(2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
2034 trips per capita
100,00
10,00
1,00
0,10
0,01
0,00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
India
0.30 trips per capita
PRC
1.09 trips per capita
Europe
2.24 trips per capita
North America
2.16 trips per capita
BY2034,PRCWILLREACHCURRENTEUROPEANLEVELS
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus GMF 2015
Emerging
countries
NorthAmerica
Europe
Flying by Numbers016 017Flying by Numbers

11. Network
and traffic
forecast

12. • The network is constantly evolving
• More routes, bigger existing routes, more connectivity
• By 2034, 70% of network growth and 84% of total RPKs will be
centred on todays routes/network
• Aviation Mega-Cities (AMCs) big today, bigger tomorrow
• More than 90% of international long-haul flying centred on just
47 cities
• 22% of global GDP focused on the AMCs, helping drive the share
of higher yield passenger up from these cities
• As traffic grows and OD between the “big points” concentrates,
congestion is an issue at many key airports
• The trend to larger aircraft helping, more larger aircraft to come
• The A380 for example, already proven it helps increase pax, reduce
airline costs, and free up slots at congested airports
More services
SINCE 2004
+31%
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
201420122010200820062004
Base 100 in 2014
DESPITEAMAJORCRISISIN2008,AIRLINESHAVEOFFERED
MORESERVICES*TOTHEIRCUSTOMERS
Notes: as of September
*Service is defined as a new airport pair
or a new airline operating an existing airport pair
Sources: OAG, Airbus
ASKs:+57% Services:+31% Citypairs:+26%
021Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers020

13. 47AVIATIONMEGA-CITIESIN2014
Sources: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF 2015
2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
10,000 230,000
+90%OF LONG-HAUL
TRAFFIC ON
ROUTES TO/FROM/
VIA 47 CITIES
22%OF WORLD
GDP IN
2014
0.9MDAILY
PASSENGERS:
LONG-HAUL
TRAFFIC TO/ FROM/
VIA MEGA-CITIES
AVIATION
MEGA-CITIES
47
Flying by Numbers022 023Flying by Numbers

14. 2014-2034NEWSERVICES
Source: Airbus
70%OFTRAFFICGROWTHUNTIL2034WILL
COMEFROMTHEEXISTINGNETWORK
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
20342014
Monthly Trillion RPK
Growthfrom
newroutes
Growthfrom
existingnetwork BaseyearTraffic
Flying by Numbers024 025Flying by Numbers

15. 2014 Aviation Mega-Cities
THESEAIRPORTSAREALREADYLARGELYCONGESTED
Sources: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF
39
OUT OF THE
47AVIATION MEGA
CITIES ARE
SCHEDULE-
CONSTRAINED
TODAY IATAWSGlevel3:airports
whereconditionsmakeit
impossibletomeetdemand
IATAWSGlevel2:airports
withpotentialforcongestion
IATAWSGlevel1:airport
infrastructureisadequate
*Aviation Mega-Cities
International Airports
Flying by Numbers026 027Flying by Numbers

16. MORE SEATS , MORE SEATS FILLED, MORE
MOVEMENTS MORE CONNECTIVITY , BUT…
In the last 30 years:
• Airport movements up nearly 2.5 times
• Airport connectivity almost doubled
• Offered seats per aircraft have nearly doubled
• Worldwide average load factor ~80%, up 17 percentage points
since 1980
However since 2000:
• Average kilogrammes of fuel per passenger trip is down a third
• Therefore CO per passenger trip is also down a third
MOREMOVEMENTS,MORECONNECTIVITY
Sources: OAG, Airbus GMF 2015
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of movements per airport
x 2.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of destinations per airport
x 1.9
Airport movements
Airport connectivity
029Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers028

17. MOREPRODUCTIVESEATS
Sources: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
LESSFUELBURN,THEREFORELESSEMISSIONS
Sources: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF 2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
20142010200520001995199019851980
Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)
+46%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20142012201020082006200420022000
Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)
-33%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
20142010200520001995199019851980
World passenger load factors (%)
+17
percentage
points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
20142012201020082006200420022000
-33%
Kliograms per passenger trip (avg.)
Yearly offered seats per aircraft Fuel consumption
Load factors Co2 emissions
LESS FUEL AND LESS CO !
Flying by Numbers030 031Flying by Numbers

18. PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST –
4.6% PER ANNUM (2014-2034)
• Aviation remains resilient to crises, growing 85% since 2001
• Domestic China will be the largest flow by 2034, forecast to grow
nearly four times
• Half of the top 20 traffic flows will include Asia-Pacific
• AirlinesintheAsia-Pacificwillfly36%oftotaltraffic,NorthAmerican
and European airlines forecast to fly 38% of RPKs combined
• Middle Eastern carriers will grow from an 9% share to 13% of
traffic in the next 20 years
• DespiteperturbationsAirbus’historicaltrafficforecasts continueto
track the long term trend
AIRTRAVELHASPROVEDTOBE
RESILIENTTOEXTERNALSHOCKS
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometer
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2014201120072003
2001
199919951991198719831979197519711967
85%
World traffic
85%
GROWTH SINCE 9/11
Asia-Pacific
leading growth
50%OF THE TOP
TWENTY TRAFFIC
FLOWS WILL
INVOLVE
ASIA-PACIFIC
Annual OD traffic per flow (billion RPK)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging
Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe
Middle East - USA
Australia New Zealand - Western Europe
Central Europe - Western Europe
Indian Subcontinent - USA
Western Europe - PRC
Domestic Brazil
South America - USA
Asia Emerging - Western Europe
Western Europe - South America
PRC - USA
Indian Subcontinent - Middle East
Domestic India
Western Europe - Middle East
Domestic Asia Emerging
Western Europe - USA
Intra Western Europe
Domestic USA
Domestic PRC x3.8
x1.4
x1.7
x1.7
x3.7
x2.4
x5.8
x3.4
x4.1
x2.2
x2.4
x2.8
x2.9
x3.0
x3.8
x2.5
x2.4
x4.1
x2.5
x3.1
DOMESTICPRCWILLBETHELARGEST
ODTRAFFICFLOWIN2034
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
2014
2034
Flying by Numbers032 033Flying by Numbers

19. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
ASIA-PACIFICTOLEADINWORLDTRAFFICBY2034
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
2014traffic 2015-2034traffic
% of 2014
world RPK
20-year growth % of 2034
world RPK
29% 5.7% 36%
25% 3.6% 21%
25% 2.5% 17%
9% 6.7% 13%
5% 5.2% 6%
4% 4.9% 4%
3% 5.3% 3%
20-YEAR WORLD
ANNUAL
TRAFFIC GROWTH
4.6%
035Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers034

20. DESPITE“UPSANDDOWNS”GMFTRAFFIC
FORECASTSTRACKTHELONGTERMTREND
Sources: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2015
GMF long
term validity
GMF 2000
LONG TERM
FORECAST IS STILL
IN LINE WITH OUR
LATEST FORECAST
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20262022201820142010200620021998
GMF2000
GMF2015
GMF2008
Historical
037Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers036

21. PASSENGER TRAFFIC FORECAST
• Traffic between emerging markets forecast to grow the fastest at
6.6%AAGR.TheywillalsohavethelargestshareofRPKswith36%
• Advanced to Emerging traffic flows will also grow strongly at
5.0% AAGR between 2014 and 2034
• Traffic to and from the emerging regions will account for 70% of
World RPKs by 2034
• Internationallonghaultrafficwillcontinuetorepresentabout45%of
the World RPKs in the next 20 years, and will grow most strongly
at 4.7% AAGR to 2034
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20342014
Share of the World traffic by type of flow (RPKs)
2014-2034
AAGR
+5.0%
+2.6%
+6.6%
34%
32%
30%
43%
36%
25%
Advanced - Emerging
Emerging- Emerging
Advanced - Advanced
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
203420142002
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
23%
45%
44%
32%
24%
ICAO
total traffic
Airbus
GMF 2015
2014-2034
AAGR
International
Short-Haul
+4.5%
Domestic
+4.5%
International
Long-Haul
+4.7%
32%
Long-Haul
demand leads
the market
INTERNATIONAL
LONG-HAUL TRAFFIC
WILL CONTINUE
TO REPRESENT
ABOUT
45%
OF WORLD RPKs
IN THE NEXT
20 YEARS
EMERGING REGIONS
WILL DRIVE WORLD
TRAFFIC GROWTH
TRAFFIC
FROM / TO / WITHIN
EMERGING REGIONS
WILL ACCOUNT FOR
70%
OF WORLD RPKs
2034
EMERGINGREGIONSWILLACCOUNTFORTHELARGEST
SHAREOFORIGIN ANDDESTINATIONTRAFFICWORLDWIDE
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
INTERNATIONALLONG-HAULTRAFFICWILLSTILL
REPRESENT THELARGESTSHAREOFTRAFFICWORLDWIDE
Sources: ICAO, Sabre GDD, Airbus GMF 2015
Long-haul: OD distance 2000 NM
Flying by Numbers038 039Flying by Numbers

22. FREIGHT TRAFFIC FORECAST
• Freight traffic (main deck and belly hold) will grow on average 4.4%
per annum over the next 20 years
• As for passenger traffic, growth involving the emerging markets
will be strong, with 6.1% AAGR between emerging countries, and
between advanced and emerging
• 80% of all freight traffic is linked to these emerging markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
20342032203020282026202420222020201820162014201220102008200620042002200019981996
Billion Freight tonne kilometres
History Forecast Advanced
Advanced
2.6%
Emerging
Emerging
6.1%
Advanced
Emerging
4.9%
Emerging
Advanced
4.9%
80%
Growth Rate
2014-2034
Annual growth
rate 2014-2034
4.4%
INCLUDES BELLY
AND MAIN DECK
Flying by Numbers040 041Flying by Numbers

23. Demand for
passenger
aircraft

24. • Average aircraft size is increasing
• Averageaircraftsizeperflighthasgrownfrom139seatstoover170
seats since the early 1970’s
• Asecondperiodofaverageaircraftsizegrowthisbeginningwith
today’s backlog
• Single-aisle aircraft range from 100 to 240 seats, with the A321
offering this highest seating configuration, with the possibility on
the range side of flying 4000nm
• For wide-body types there is operational overlap with the single-aisle,
with lower seating limits around 200 seats increasing to 600 or even
higher with the A380
• This overlap has developed as the capability of both segments of
today’s aircraft have grown, leaving an already seamless coverage
between the single-aisle and widebody markets
• With international long-haul traffic growing the fastest, the “big
points” like Aviation Mega-Cities will grow in importance. This
will have an effect on the size and type of aircraft selected by airlines in
the coming years
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
2014201220072002199719921987198219771972
Average capacity per flight, aircraft above 100seats
WIDE-BODIESOFFER10%OFSEATSOPERATEDBELOW2,000NM
Note: September 2014
Sources: OAG, Airbus
AVERAGEAIRCRAFTCAPACITYPERFLIGHTHASINCREASEDOVERTIME
Sources: Airbus, OAG
September month for each year
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
60005600520048004400400036003200280024002000160012008004000
Single-Aisle
Single-Aisle
operates 15%
of seats
over 2,000nm
Wide-Bodies operates 10%
of seats below 2,000nm
Wide-Body
Share of global seats offered
Sector Length (nm)
Flying by Numbers044 045Flying by Numbers

25. AMC to AMC
TO REPRESENT
77%OF ALL LONG HAUL
TRAFFIC
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
203420242014
Monthly international long-haul passengers (Millions)
Long-haul, flight distance 2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic
Sources: Sabre (September 2014 data), Airbus
Flying by Numbers046 047Flying by Numbers
AviationMega-Cityto
AviationMega-City
AviationMega-City
toSecondaryCity
SecondaryCityto
SecondaryCity

26. 1% 85%
14%
7% 59%
34%
1% 88%
11%
2% 76%
22%
GLOBAL NETWORK NORTH AMERICA
LCCs
OTHERS*
14,116 (44%) 5,544 (17%)
1% 79%
20%
LATIN AMERICA
CARIBBEAN
2,510 (8%)
3% 75%
22%
AFRICA
1,117 (4%)
16% 38%
46%
MIDDLE EAST
1,117 (7%)
2% 85%
13%
CIS
1,288 (4%)
5% 66%
29%
ASIA-PACIFIC
3% 79%
18%
EUROPE
6,365 (20%)
9,321 (29%)
8,345 (26%)
*Charters, Regional, Small
and Major network airlines
12,596 (40%)
10%
47%
43%
US$ 4.7 trillion
1,275
22,927
7,579
31,781 aircraft
New deliveries
Market value
Fleet evolution
17,354
18,395
13,386
3,968
Beginning
2015
2034
Growth
Replaced
Stay in service
remarketed
US$ 2.2
trillion
US$ 2.0
trillion
US$ 0.5
trillion
New deliveries by neutral category
1,296
3,478
7,459 6,872
3,822
2,574 2,610
1,463
932 1,275
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 VLA
35,749
VLA TA SA
Flying by Numbers048 049Flying by Numbers

27. Demand
by region

28. NEW DELIVERIES
37%REPLACEMENT
63%FOR GROWTH
33%WILL BE TWIN-AISLE
WITH MANY OF
THESE TO BE
USED ON MEDIUM
RANGE OPERATIONS,
AS WELL AS
LONG-HAUL
• Asia-Pacificwillcontinuetoleadworldeconomicgrowth,bothin
termsofrealGDPwithanaveragegrowthof4.5%peryearandintrade
with an average of 5.3% growth per year
• “Asia developed” countries delivered 39% of the total traffic to/
from/within Asia-Pacific in 2004, today it accounts for 28% of the
total traffic
• Conversely, PRC has increased its share of the region’s traffic from
23% in 2004 to 31% in 2014
• Airlines domiciled in the PRC increased their market share from 26%
of Asia-Pacific’s total Available Seat Kilometres (ASK) in 2004 to 33%
in 2014
• Ten of the top 20 traffic flows forecast include Asia/Pacific
• Asia-Pacific have experienced growth in low cost operations in
recent years
• The Indian subcontinent and “Asia emerging” countries LCCs have
captured ~60% of the total domestic traffic
• In more mature markets in the region the LCC share is significantly
smaller ~25% share
Asia-
Pacific
12,596
053Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers052

29. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
624
1,089
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
2,554
8,329
Asia-
Pacific
6.0%
North
America
4.9%
Latin
America
5.9%
Middle
East
6.3%
CIS
5.9%Europe
4.4%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 626
5,275
New
deliveries
12,596
13,222
Growth
7,947
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
5.3%
Intra-regional
domestic
6.0%
Inter-regional
5.1%
2015
5,275
2034
13,222
Total
traffic
5.6%
Real GDP
4.5%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
12,596
Total RPK
traffic growth
Asia-
Pacific
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%
6.4%
4.8%
5.6%
2034Beginning
2015
Africa
7.3%
Replacement
4,649
Results
Flying by Numbers054 055Flying by Numbers

30. • Whilst the Eurozone economy has had difficulty gaining momentum,
consumer spending is accelerating
• Air transport is a core industry in Europe. In 2014, it accounted
for 4.1% of the region’s GDP, supporting more than 12 million jobs
according to a recent ACI report
• Tourism is a major driver for European international traffic. The
UNWTO reported that Europe attracted 588 million visitors in 2014, a
4% increase versus 2013
• Over the next 20 years, we forecast that the passenger traffic from /
to/afterthetoi.e.to/withintheregionwillgrowatayearlyaveragerate
of 4.6% in Central Europe, and 3.3% in Western Europe
• Europe leads the long haul market. 60% of the World’s long haul
flights (those over 6000km) depart or arrive in Europe
• Europe’s average propensity to travel in 2014 was 1.2 trips per
capita (The US stands at 1.6 trips per capita)
Europe 6,365NEW DELIVERIES
51%REPLACEMENT
49%FOR GROWTH
79%WILL BE SINGLE-
AISLES DUE TO
THE EUROPEAN
POPULATION
LANDSCAPE
Flying by Numbers056 057Flying by Numbers

31. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
787
5,052
370 156
Europe
2.9%
Asia-
Pacific
4.4%
North
America
2.8%
Latin
America
3.5%
Middle
East
4.6%
Africa
4.7%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 843
2034
4,093
Beginning
2015
New
deliveries
6,365
7,208
Growth
3,115
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
3.4%
Intra-regional
domestic
2.9%
Inter-regional
3.9%
2015
4,093
2034
7,208
Total
traffic
3.6%
Real GDP
1.7%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
6,365
Total RPK
traffic growth
World
Europe
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1%
4.6%
CIS
4.6%
3.9%
3.4%
3.6%Replacement
3,250
Results
Flying by Numbers058 059Flying by Numbers

32. • Consumer spending sustained by strong employment growth,
improvedhouseholdfinances,lowgasolineprices,thehousingmarket
and capital expenditure recovery have helped drive US economic
activity
• US real GDP growth is forecast to average 2.5% per year in the
2014-2034 period, with greater business fixed investment and RD
spending offsetting the slowdown in labour force growth
• By 2034, North America is forecast to still account for 21% of the
World economy (in real terms)
• For a third consecutive year, airlines in the region achieved collective
profitability in 2014, this mainly due to effects of consolidation and
lower fuel costs
• With the return of profitability in 2010, the number of single-aisle
aircraft has increased and with a stabilisation in the number of
twin-aisle aircraft meeting market needs
• The domestic US air transport market, the largest single market
today,willremainenormous,andisforecasttobethesecondbiggest
flow in the world with 90 billion RPKs by 2034
• Traffic between the US and China is forecast to be the most
dynamic of the North American regions flows with an average yearly
growth of 7.3%
North
America
5,544NEW DELIVERIES
65%REPLACEMENT
35%FOR GROWTH
85%WILL BE SINGLE-
AISLES DUE TO
THE IMPORTANCE
OF THE US
DOMESTIC MARKET
061Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers060

33. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
582
4,733
194
35
North
America
1.8%
Asia-
Pacific
4.9%
Africa
4.8%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 551
2034
4,182
Beginning
2015
New
deliveries
5,544
6,095
Growth
1,913
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.6%
Intra-regional
domestic
1.8%
Inter-regional
4.2%
2015
4,182
2034
6,095
Total
traffic
3.4%
Real GDP
2.5%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
5,544
CIS
4.4%Europe
2.8%
Total RPK
traffic growth
North
America
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1%
4.6%
3.1%
3.4%
3.7%
Latin
America
4.5%
Middle
East
7.1%
Replacement
3,631
Results
Flying by Numbers062 063Flying by Numbers

34. • Theregion’smedium-termeconomicoutlookremainssupportedbyits
substantialpetroleumresources,closeproximitytoenergy-hungry
Asian economies, growing tourism potential and strategically
important geopolitical location
• Airtransporthasbeenbothamajordriverandindicatorofthegrowing
importance of the Middle East in the global economy
• Over the past ten years, Middle Eastern airlines have spearheaded
growth in the region. They have extended their presence to five
continents,enablingairtraffictogrowtwiceasfastastheeconomy
• Since 2003 the capacity in terms of available seats has quadrupled to
over 90 billion ASK
• TheMiddleEastistheonlyregionintheworldwherethetwin-aislefleet
is bigger than the single aisle in numbers of aircraft
• This aircraft capacity has been a key enabler of airline growth in
the region in recent years
• Long haul traffic has been growing at 11 percent over the past 20
years, outperforming short haul
• A third of all passengers travelling on Middle East carriers are on a
connecting flights, but no necessarily connecting in the Middle East
• However, the share of connecting traffic passing through the Middle
East, i.e. not starting or finishing the journeys there, is just 19% of the
regions total origin and destination traffic
Middle
East
2,361NEW DELIVERIES
25%REPLACEMENT
75%FOR GROWTH
62%WILL BE WIDE-
BODIES DUE TO
THE POSITION
THE REGION IS
CREATING FOR
ITSELF AS A MAJOR
GLOBAL HUB, AND
THE SUCCESS OF
ITS AIRLINES
065Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers064

35. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
547
886
551
377
Middle
East
5.8%
Asia-
Pacific
6.3%
North
America
7.1%
Africa
6.6%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 431
2034
1,018
Beginning
2015
New
deliveries
2,361
7,792
Growth
1,774
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.2%
Intra-regional
domestic
5.8%
Inter-regional
6.0%
2015
1,018
2034
2,792
Total
traffic
6.0%
Real GDP
3.8%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
2,361
CIS
5.3%Europe
4.6%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Middle
East
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1%
4.6%4.8%
6.0%
7.1%
Latin
America
7.7%
Replacement
587
Results
Flying by Numbers066 067Flying by Numbers

36. • The region’s real GDP growth is expected to average 3.6% per year
over the 2014-2034 period, above that forecast globally
• Together with the regions large and growing urban populations
propensity to travel in the region is expected to develop further,
with countries like Chile, Brazil and Colombia, reaching the levels
achieved by more mature economies by 2034
• Traffic growth to/from/within Latin America and the Caribbean is
expected to expand at an annual 4.7% rate, above the 4.6% world
annual rate
• Three out of the top twenty largest traffic flows continue to be
linked to the region
• Trafficwithintheregion(domesticandintra-regional)willhelptodrive
passengergrowth,representingmorethan35%ofthetotalby2034,
above the current share which is ~30%
• TheLCC’ssteadyexpansionwasmainlyconcentratedontheBrazilian
and Mexican domestic markets. It is expected however, that airlines
offering low-cost services will find new markets, flying longer, thus
also stimulating intra-regional traffic
• Between 1994-2014, airlines in the region have expanded their
average aircraft size per single-aisle flight at an annual rate of 0.8%,
close to the 0.9% registered worldwide over the same period
Latin
America
Caribbean
2,510NEW DELIVERIES
39%REPLACEMENT
61%FOR GROWTH
79%WILL BE SINGLE-
AISLES DRIVEN BY
STRONG GROWTH
IN AIR TRAVEL
DOMESTICALLY
AND AROUND THE
REGION
Flying by Numbers068 069Flying by Numbers

37. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
382
1,992
108 28
Latin
America
5.3%
Asia-
Pacific
5.9%
North
America
4.5%
Middle
East
7.7%
Africa
5.0%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 291
2034
1,266
Beginning
2015
New
deliveries
2,510
2,801
Growth
1,535
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
4.2%
Intra-regional
domestic
5.3%
Inter-regional
4.3%
2015
1,266
2034
2,801
Total
traffic
4.7%
Real GDP
3.6%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
2,510
CIS
5.3%Europe
3.5%
Total RPK
traffic growth
Latin
America
World
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1%
4.6%4.4%
4.7%4.9%
Replacement
975
Results
Flying by Numbers070 071Flying by Numbers

38. 1,288NEW DELIVERIES
THE MAJORITY WILL
BE FOR GROWTH
85%WILL BE
SINGLE-AISLES
THE CIS PASSENGER
FLEET IS FORECAST
TO MORE THAN
DOUBLE TO
2,016
AIRCRAFT
• In 2014, a number of the countries in the region maintained solid
economic performance. Uzbekistan and Moldovan real GDP grew
by 6.9 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. In 2015, CIS countries
excluding Russia will continue to grow at 2.4 percent according to
the IMF
• In the longer term, air travel consistently outperforms the
economy. Over the past fifteen years, real GDP grew on average at
4.3 percent, while traffic increased by 8.5 percent
• Travelandtourismhavethepotentialtobecomeamuchstronger
driver for the region’s economies
• The share of Russian tourism in the world is less than one percent,
while its economy represents 2.4 percent of global GDP
• Over the past ten years, the number of passengers flying to and from
emergingeconomieshasreached34millionin2013,comparedtoless
than ten million in 2004
• Travel to the Asia-Pacific from the region has increased by a
multiple of four
• On average, the yearly growth in travel with developing markets was
15.8 percent, 4.3 percent above the rate with developed countries
• With further strengthening of trade with fast-growing economies the
trend is likely to continue
• Preliminary figures for 2014 suggest that China is taking the lead
in terms of tourist visits to Russia (10-15 percent growth).
Inbound tourism from Korea has increased by 70 percent after a visa
simplification process introduced in 2013
CIS
073Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers072

39. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segment
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
138
1,101
25 24
CIS
4.3%
Asia-
Pacific
5.9%
North
America
4.4%
Latin
America
5.3%
Middle
East
6.6%
Africa
5.0%
Europe
4.6%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 728
Replacement
194
2034
922
Beginning
2015
New
deliveries
1,288
2,016
Growth
1,094
Fleet in service evolution
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
2.0%
Intra-regional
domestic
4.3%
Inter-regional
5.1%
2015
922
2034
2,016
Total
traffic
4.8%
Real GDP
2.1%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
1,288
Total RPK
traffic growth
World
CIS
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%
5.5%
4.2% 4.8%
Results
Flying by Numbers074 075Flying by Numbers

40. 11,117NEW DELIVERIES
9%REPLACEMENT
91%FOR GROWTH
75%WILL BE
SINGLE-AISLES
AS INTER-REGIONAL
FLYING GROWS
FLEET SET TO GROW
170%BY 2034
• Covering about 30 million km2, Africa is comprised of 54 countries,
more than any other continent, even surpassing Europe with 47, and
Asia with 44
• Africa’s population doubled between 1982-2009 according to the
UN, and is today estimated at 1.1 billion representing approximately
15% of the World’s population
• Growing faster even than China and India. It is estimated that one in
five people will live in Africa by the end of our forecast period in 2034
• Thereare54Africancitieswithmorethan1millionpeopleandthis
number is forecasted to grow to 93 by 2030
• According to the United Nations, the share of Africans living in urban
areas will reach 50% by 2034
• Inter-continental traffic with Africa is largely focused on Europe
which accounts for almost 60% of the total
• In recent years, Asia-Pacific and the Middle-East have gained
importance representing more than 33% of traffic in 2013 compared
to 25% ten years ago
• Domestic traffic within African countries remains the primary market
for African air travellers
•However, Intra-regional traffic between African countries
has grown faster than domestic traffic over the last 10 years,
supported by the growing African urban population and African intra-
regional trade
Africa
077Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers076

41. Number of new aircraft
New deliveries by segmentFleet in service evolution
31
58
Small
Twin-Aisle
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
Very
Large
Single-
Aisle
194
834
Africa
6.4%
Asia-
Pacific
7.3%
North
America
4.8%
Latin
America
5.0%
Middle
East
6.6%
Europe
4.7%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
Stay in service
Remarketed 498
598
New
deliveries
1,117
1,615
Growth
1,017
Fleet size*
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
** 2014-2034 CAGR
Real Trade
5.0%
Intra-regional
domestic
6.4%
Inter-regional
5.5%
2015
598
2034
1,615
Total
traffic
5.6%
Real GDP
4.6%
Fleet in service
20 year
new
deliveries
1,117
Total RPK
traffic growth
World
Africa
2014-2024 2024-2034 2014-2034
5.0%
4.1% 4.6%
6.2%
5.1% 5.6%
2034Beginning
2015
CIS
5.0%
Replacement
100
Results
Flying by Numbers078 079Flying by Numbers

42. Freighter
forecast

43. FREIGHTER
DELIVERIES
EXPRESS AND
REGIONAL TRAFFIC
WILL BOOST THE
SMALL AND MID
SIZE MARKET
BELLY
CAPACITY WILL
DRAMATICALLY
IMPACT LARGE
FREIGHTER
PROSPECTS
FREIGHT FORECAST 2014
• After having stagnated for almost three years, the air freight industry
resumed its progress in 2014 by posting 4.6% growth compared to
2013
• In the summer of 2014, total air freight traffic surpassed the peak it
reached in 2011
• Airfreightisforecasttogrowat4.4%overthenext20years.Thiswillbe
largely driven by emerging markets where both general and express
cargo are expected to continue to expand
• Justover50%ofthecargotrafficin2014wastransportedinthe“belly”
hold of passenger aircraft, that is in the space below the main deck
where passenger luggage is also stowed
• Due to the addition of more cargo capable passenger aircraft, the
market share for belly capacity is expected to continue to grow in the
future, especially on inter-continental traffic
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Large freightersMid-size freightersSmall freighters
Conversion and new build
609
1,129
617
FREIGHTERDELIVERIES
OVERTHENEXT20YEARS
Source: Airbus GMF 2015
083Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers082

44. North America
Latin America
Middle East
Asia-Pacific
Europe CIS
991
795
462
337
804
309
172
65
Africa
89 50
169
77
THEFUTUREFREIGHTERFLEET
DISTRIBUTIONWILLREFLECTTHE
GROWINGINFLUENCEOFEMERGINGMARKETS
Sources: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND
The North American fleet is
mainly a replacement market
The Asia-Pacific fleet is set
to triple as a growth market
World fleet
2015
1,633
2034
2,687
Flying by Numbers084 085Flying by Numbers

45. THREE KEY FUTURE TRENDS FOR
THE CARGO INDUSTRY:
• Express will continue to develop more rapidly than
generalcargo,thisdrivenbybothinternationaltraf-
fic and domestic and regional traffic in emerging
regions such as China and South East Asia
• Medium haul regional traffic will surge with the
development of cargo networks in regions such as
intra-Asia, within Africa and Latin America. This will
drive the need for mid-sized freighter aircraft
• Belly capacity will continue to grow especially on
long haul routes where new cargo friendly pas-
senger wide-bodies are expected to progressively
replace large freighters thanks to very competitive
economics
2,355
Conversions
New build
74% Small
Mid-size
deliveries
Fleet to
Double
Flying by Numbers086 087Flying by Numbers

46. Summary
methodology

47. Africa
Asia-
Pacific
CIS Europe
Lat.
Caribb.
Middle
East
North
America
20 year
new
deliveries
Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927
Small
Twin-Aisle
194 2,554 138 787 382 547 582 5,184
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
58 1,089 25 370 108 551 194 2,395
Very Large
Aircraft
31 624 24 156 28 377 35 1,275
TOTAL 1,117 12,596 1,288 6,365 2,510 2,361 5,544 31,781
Africa
Asia-
Pacific
CIS Europe
Lat.
Caribb.
Middle
East
North
America
20 year
new
deliveries
Single-Aisle 834 8,329 1,101 5,052 1,992 886 4,733 22,927
Small
Twin-Aisle
198 2,579 140 796 389 552 718 5,372
Intermediate
Twin-Aisle
62 1,179 39 413 132 596 314 2,734
Very Large
Aircraft
36 726 32 192 29 423 113 1,550
TOTAL 1,130 12,813 1,312 6,453 2,542 2,457 5,878 32,585
Africa
Asia-
Pacific
CIS Europe
Lat.
Caribb.
Middle
East
North
America
20 year new
deliveries
Small - - - - - - - -
Mid-size 6 72 13 37 31 30 223 412
Large 7 145 11 51 1 66 111 392
TOTAL 13 217 24 88 32 96 334 804
NEWPASSENGERAIRCRAFTDELIVERIESBYREGION
SUMMARY RESULTS
NEWPASSENGERFREIGHTAIRCRAFTDELIVERIESBYREGIONNEWFREIGHTAIRCRAFTDELIVERIESBYREGION
Africa
Asia-
Pacific
CIS Europe
Lat.
Caribb.
Middle
East
North
America
20 year new
deliveries
Small 38 319 8 81 84 5 74 609
Mid-size 24 113 22 122 37 25 375 718
Large 10 77 14 28 - 19 77 225
TOTAL 72 509 44 231 121 49 526 1,552
CONVERTEDFREIGHTAIRCRAFTDELIVERIESBYREGION
Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats and freight aircraft ≥10 tons
Flying by Numbers090 091Flying by Numbers

48. SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Words such as anticipates,
believes, estimates, expects, intends,
plans, projects, may, forecast and similar
expressions are used to identify these
forward-looking statements. Examples
of forward-looking statements include
statements made about strategy, ramp-
up and delivery schedules, introduction
of new products and services and market
expectations, as well as statements
regarding future performance and outlook.
By their nature, forward-looking statements
involve risk and uncertainty because they
relate to future events and circumstances
and there are many factors that could cause
actual results and developments to differ
materially from those expressed or implied
by these forward-looking statements.
Thesefactorsincludebutarenotlimitedto:
• Changes in general economic, political
or market conditions, including the cy-
clical nature of some of Airbus Group
businesses;
• Significant disruptions in air travel (inclu-
ding as a result of terrorist attacks);
• Currency exchange rate fluctuations, in
particular between the Euro and the U.S.
dollar;
• The successful execution of internal per-
formance plans, including cost reduction
and productivity efforts;
• Productperformancerisks,aswellaspro-
gramme development and management
risks;
• Customer, supplier and subcontractor
performance or contract negotiations,
including financing issues;
• Competition and consolidation in the ae-
rospace and defence industry;
• Significant collective bargaining labour
disputes;
• The outcome of political and legal pro-
cesses,includingtheavailabilityofgovern-
ment financing for certain programmes
and the size of defence and space procu-
rement budgets;
• Research and development costs in
connection with new products;
• Legal, financial and governmental risks
related to international transactions;
• Legal and investigatory proceedings and
other economic, political and technologi-
cal risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained in
thispresentation/publicationspeaksasofthe
date of this presentation/publication release.
Airbus Group undertakes no obligation to
publiclyreviseorupdateanyforward-looking
statements in light of new information, future
eventsorotherwise.
093Flying by NumbersFlying by Numbers092
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