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Развлекательная
социальная сеть
Одноклассники
2016
How to Estimate User’s Actual
Age and Gender
Vitaly Khudobakhshov
Agenda
• Problem statement
• Social graph analysis
• NLP methods
• Behavior and user’s interests analysis
• Statistical approach
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
1
Problem statement
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
It is not about a situation where user consciously hides his or her
gender or age and behaves consistently.
2
Problem statement
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Let’s suppose that we have users who don’t set their birth date
or gender (default value problem)
• or set wrong values for some reason (e.g. mistakes and so on)
3
Problem decomposition
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
Age	Estimation
Social	Graph	Analysis
Gender	Estimation
NLP
Interests
Statistics
4
Social Graph Analysis
Social Graph
• Is represented as an adjacency list
• user -> [(user0, label0), (user1, label1),…]
• Social graph is an undirected graph with labeled edges
• An edge may have multiple labels (classmates, parents, etc.)
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
5
User’s Graph
What is a User’s Graph?
• User’s graph is a graph which is induced by star-
shaped tree
• user -> [(user0, label0), (user1, label1),…]
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
John
John’s	Mother
John’s	Father
John’s	Girlfriend
AaronDavid
Sara
6
Social Graph Analysis
Local Properties of User’s Graph
• Number of friends
• Connected components
• Number of triangles
• and so on
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
7
Age Estimation by Local Properties
Motivation
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
John
1995
1970
1992
?
1992
1968
Classmates
Parents
Relationship
8
Age Estimation by Local Properties
Data Sources
• Classmate label should be a strong feature (school, college).
• Colleague label definitely is not that good.
• How about a group of friends who are the same age?
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
9
Some obstacles
Quality of the Model
• No ground truth.
• How to check?
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
Quality of the Data
• Labeling is incomplete.
10
Age Estimation: Step 1
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
11
Confidence
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
Which source of the estimation is better?
The first attempt is something like this:
C = 1 – 1 / #friends
Does it work?
12
Age Estimation: Step 2
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
1 – classmates (school)
2 – classmates (college)
3 – max component
Not so good
13
Confidence
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
Common sense formula
Here is an easy way to solve the problem:
Cschool = 1 – 1 / #friends + 0.002
Ccollege = 1 – 1 / #friends + 0.001
Cmax = 1 – 1 / #friends
14
So you want to write a fugue?
Model quality
• No ground truth.
• There are special cases (e.g. Eschool=Ecollege=Emax).
• We can try to maximize accuracy with respect to model
parameters.
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
15
NLP and Gender Estimation
Advantages
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Simple models are easy to understand: I/YOU +
ADJ/VERB with gender
Disadvantages
• Very difficult in case of a multilingual environment
• Coverage is not very good
• Privacy concerns
15
Communities and Interests
How it works
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Male persons prefer cars and extreme sports.
• Female persons prefer something else.
Conclusion
• There are gender specific communities and gender
neutral communities.
• Divide and rule
16
Interests and Gender Estimation
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
17
Interests and Gender Estimation
Advantages
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Language independent
• Good coverage
Disadvantages
• Thresholds selection
• Small and gender neutral communities
18
Statistics
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
17
Statistics
Advantages
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Language independent
• Not very sensitive to special characters (or may be
preprocessed)
• Near to maximum possible coverage
18
Conclusion
Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
• Models are complimentary to each other.
• Simple methods may produce very good results due to
big data issues.
• We can gain better results without privacy violation.
AINL 2016: Khudobakhshov

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AINL 2016: Khudobakhshov

  • 2. Agenda • Problem statement • Social graph analysis • NLP methods • Behavior and user’s interests analysis • Statistical approach Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 3. 1 Problem statement Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 It is not about a situation where user consciously hides his or her gender or age and behaves consistently.
  • 4. 2 Problem statement Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Let’s suppose that we have users who don’t set their birth date or gender (default value problem) • or set wrong values for some reason (e.g. mistakes and so on)
  • 5. 3 Problem decomposition Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 Age Estimation Social Graph Analysis Gender Estimation NLP Interests Statistics
  • 6. 4 Social Graph Analysis Social Graph • Is represented as an adjacency list • user -> [(user0, label0), (user1, label1),…] • Social graph is an undirected graph with labeled edges • An edge may have multiple labels (classmates, parents, etc.) Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 7. 5 User’s Graph What is a User’s Graph? • User’s graph is a graph which is induced by star- shaped tree • user -> [(user0, label0), (user1, label1),…] Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 John John’s Mother John’s Father John’s Girlfriend AaronDavid Sara
  • 8. 6 Social Graph Analysis Local Properties of User’s Graph • Number of friends • Connected components • Number of triangles • and so on Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 9. 7 Age Estimation by Local Properties Motivation Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 John 1995 1970 1992 ? 1992 1968 Classmates Parents Relationship
  • 10. 8 Age Estimation by Local Properties Data Sources • Classmate label should be a strong feature (school, college). • Colleague label definitely is not that good. • How about a group of friends who are the same age? Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 11. 9 Some obstacles Quality of the Model • No ground truth. • How to check? Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 Quality of the Data • Labeling is incomplete.
  • 12. 10 Age Estimation: Step 1 Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 13. 11 Confidence Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 Which source of the estimation is better? The first attempt is something like this: C = 1 – 1 / #friends Does it work?
  • 14. 12 Age Estimation: Step 2 Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 1 – classmates (school) 2 – classmates (college) 3 – max component Not so good
  • 15. 13 Confidence Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 Common sense formula Here is an easy way to solve the problem: Cschool = 1 – 1 / #friends + 0.002 Ccollege = 1 – 1 / #friends + 0.001 Cmax = 1 – 1 / #friends
  • 16. 14 So you want to write a fugue? Model quality • No ground truth. • There are special cases (e.g. Eschool=Ecollege=Emax). • We can try to maximize accuracy with respect to model parameters. Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 17. 15 NLP and Gender Estimation Advantages Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Simple models are easy to understand: I/YOU + ADJ/VERB with gender Disadvantages • Very difficult in case of a multilingual environment • Coverage is not very good • Privacy concerns
  • 18. 15 Communities and Interests How it works Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Male persons prefer cars and extreme sports. • Female persons prefer something else. Conclusion • There are gender specific communities and gender neutral communities. • Divide and rule
  • 19. 16 Interests and Gender Estimation Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016
  • 20. 17 Interests and Gender Estimation Advantages Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Language independent • Good coverage Disadvantages • Thresholds selection • Small and gender neutral communities
  • 22. 17 Statistics Advantages Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Language independent • Not very sensitive to special characters (or may be preprocessed) • Near to maximum possible coverage
  • 23. 18 Conclusion Vitaly Khudobakhshov, 2016 • Models are complimentary to each other. • Simple methods may produce very good results due to big data issues. • We can gain better results without privacy violation.