The document provides an overview of the key topics covered in the Indian Economic Survey of 2011-12, including:
1) What is an economic survey and its purpose of reviewing the previous year's economic performance and prospects.
2) The status of the Indian economy in 2011-12, with growth estimated at 6.9% compared to 8.4% in the previous two years, largely due to weakening industrial growth.
3) Highlights and conclusions from the survey covering fiscal developments, prices and monetary policy, trade, agriculture, industry, infrastructure and other sectors.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP), on the domestic front, moved into the positive territory in November 2014, signalling improvement in growth momentum. We hope that going forward, the incipient signs of revival would transform into a firm recovery especially as there is some progress in investment intentions and business confidence is on the ascendant. On the global front, slowing growth in Japan and Euro Area has increased the uncertainties in global growth.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the economic data coming out of Japanese and Euro Area economies, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, and Balance of Payments. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on the topic “Enabling 'Make in India' Through Effective Tax Reforms”. In Focus of the Month, we look at the year gone by and list out the challenges which await us in 2015.
Appended below is the link to download the November-December 2014 of Economy Matters for your ready reference:
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP), on the domestic front, moved into the positive territory in November 2014, signalling improvement in growth momentum. We hope that going forward, the incipient signs of revival would transform into a firm recovery especially as there is some progress in investment intentions and business confidence is on the ascendant. On the global front, slowing growth in Japan and Euro Area has increased the uncertainties in global growth.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the economic data coming out of Japanese and Euro Area economies, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, and Balance of Payments. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on the topic “Enabling 'Make in India' Through Effective Tax Reforms”. In Focus of the Month, we look at the year gone by and list out the challenges which await us in 2015.
Appended below is the link to download the November-December 2014 of Economy Matters for your ready reference:
The Union Finance Minister Shri Arun Jaitley tabled the Economic Survey 2016-17 today, the first day of the Budget Session of the Parliament. The Economic Survey says that the adverse impact of demonetisation on GDP growth will be transitional and the economy will recover with remonetisation. The Survey states that once the cash supply is replenished, which is likely to be achieved by end of March 2017, the economy would revert to normal. The GDP growth in 2017-18, as per the survey, is projected to be in the range of 6¾-7½ percent.
The Survey suggests a few measures to maximise long-term benefits and minimise short-term costs. One, fast remonetisation and early elimination of withdrawal limits. This would reduce GDP growth deceleration and cash hoarding. Two, continued impetus to digitalisation while ensuring that this transition is gradual and inclusive, and appropriately balances the costs and benefits of cash versus digitalisation. Three, following up demonetisation by bringing land and real estate into the GST. Four, reducing tax rates and stamp duties.
This is an analysis and brief overview document on the Survey
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
National Conference on “Infrastructure Finance – Building for Growth” - INDIA...Resurgent India
Indian economy after registering a robust growth of more than 9% during the period 2005-08, moderated to a growth of 6.7% in 2008-09 on the back of the global financial crisi
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
National Conference on “Infrastructure Finance – Building for Growth” - INDIA...Resurgent India
Indian economy after registering a robust growth of more than 9% during the period 2005-08, moderated to a growth of 6.7% in 2008-09 on the back of the global financial crisi
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Dear Investors,
September saw a spillover of the previous month’s equity
market correction. The main reason for this was the continuing
bleak global events, which also negated domestic macro greenshoots to a large extent. In the West, the possibility of a US Fed
rate hike lingers, keeping investors globally on their toes.
Amidst this global weakness, uncertainties of global markets
with respect to the Euro have reduced after Alexis Tsipras’
Syriza party returned to power once again in Greece, this time
with a majority. The Chinese government is also taking
initiatives like tightening trading rules on forex and stock
market to stabilize their economy. The slowdown in China in a
way has been India’s gain, which has led to India emerging as
the top destination for FDI investments, attracting $30 billion
by the end of June 2015.
Closer home, better looking green-shoots portray a recovering
economy. Industrial growth has been above 4% for the past 2
months, whereas retail inflation continues to remain lower.
Although there has been a double digit deficit in the rainfall
this year, RBI is not too much worried about the pressure on
the food prices given the comfort it has derived from the
actions by the government to manage supply. An addition to
these positives was RBI increasing the foreign investment limit
in central government securities. This will help create a new
pool of money to compensate for the lowering SLR imposed on
banks.
Markets rejoiced at the bonnes nouvelles (good news) of the
50 basis points rate cut by RBI at the fourth bi-monthly
meeting. The main objective behind this was to enhance
growth in the economy. Mr. Raghuram Rajan hopes that
investment should respond more strongly after some certainty
about the extent of monetary stimulus in pipeline, even if the
transmission is low. With this transmission, investments in the
real economy would increase. This announcement was then
followed by a highly ‘dovish’ stance, with the RBI repeating
that it would remain in an ‘accommodative mode’. The rate cut
has increased the cumulative rate cut this year to 125 bps. It is
hearting that banks like SBI has cut its base rate by 40 bps.
All in all, the month saw events that were unexpected, events
that created a yin-yang sentiment among investors and events
that made India shining more convincing. RBI has taken the
first bold step on its part. The question now is what the
government will do on its part to grow our economy!
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
Various on-ranch materials were used in 5 different compost recipes to determine which mixture would produce finished compost in the shortest time. Materials used included leaves, straw, potato vines, comfrey, pine needles, grass clippings, and cow, horse, and chicken manure.
Hoe doet u als ondernemer optimaal uw voordeel met nieuwe marktspelregels en klantwensen? Adfiz rolt een uitdagend en uitgebreid ondersteuningsprogramma uit. Het startschot is nu!
Door: Hanneke Hartman, directeur Adfiz
Reflecting a positive hiring outlook, the organized sector in India is expected to create about 1.6 million new jobs in the year 2012, as per the latest results of a survey from HR firm Ma Foi Randstad..
Current State of the Indian EconomyCautious optimism for the.docxfaithxdunce63732
Current State of the Indian Economy
Cautious optimism for the future
February 2013
www.deloitte.com/in
2
The Big Picture
The Indian Economy has experienced
its worst slowdown in nearly a decade
on the back of global contractionary
headwinds, domestic macro-economic
imbalances and policy reversals on the
fiscal front, 2012 has been a challenging
year for the economy. The year started
with news that the previous fiscal’s
fourth quarter GDP had dropped to
5.5%. That coupled with low growth,
macro-economic issues such as high
fiscal deficit, expansionary subsidies and
worsening current account balance has
added to the slowdown.
The 2011-12 Budget had proposed
to amend the 1961 income tax
law by introducing retrospective
tax adjustments and General Anti-
Avoidance Rules (GAAR). These steps
were viewed negatively by foreign
investors. Subsequent downgrading
of the Indian economic outlook from
‘stable’ to ‘negative’ by a major rating
agency, led to continued downward
pressure on the investment climate.
Additionally, as fiscal conditions
worsened over the year, export
numbers were revised in light of data
discrepancies leading to a widening of
the current account deficit.
In the second half of the fiscal, the
Government proactively intervened
with phased reforms to stabilize the
economy. Measures were taken to
reduce subsidies (oil, fertilizers) which
would in turn lower the fiscal deficit.
The Government also took concrete
actions to attract foreign direct
investment (FDI) and strengthen the
rupee. However, the impact of these
policy reforms remains uncertain in
the short term. Concerns continue
to exist over the current account
deficit scenario, prevailing supply side
constraints, inadequate infrastructure
investments and long term policy
directions.
In face of a perceivably weak macro-
economic climate, a well-planned
economic revival policy is required to
steer the Indian Economy back on the
growth path. Even though the long
term prospects of the economy look
promising, cautious optimism is the
tone in the short to medium term.
Global Linkages
Performances of advanced economies
continue to weigh on India’s growth
story.
The World Economic Forum’s annual
meeting for 2013 was held in Davos,
Switzerland in January 2013, bringing
together more than 2,000 top business
leaders, international political leaders,
Current State of the Indian Economy Cautious optimism for the future 3
Economic opportunity is dwindling. While reforms have
been initiated, further action to create infrastructure, boost
savings and generate growth will be welcome
selected intellectuals and journalists to
discuss the most pressing issues facing
the world. The IMF, in its update of
World Economic Outlook, lowered the
world GDP growth projections by 0.1%
each for 2013 & 2014 as compared to
the October 2012 projections. This is on
account of downside risks that continue
in light of renewed s.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
A Deep Dive into the Indian Union Budget 2022aakash malhotra
What does the Union Budget 2022 mean for the Indian economy? Explore all the major announcements made by the Indian Finance Minister surrounding economic indicators, direct taxes, existing policies, indirect taxes and major industries. A detailed analysis by Deloitte experts. Everything you need to know in one place.
1. By
ECONOMIC SURVEY OF
GAURAV SINHA
11116
INDIA
2011-12
2. We will discuss on the
following topics under the
heading economic survey 2011-
12
What is economic survey ??
Status of Indian economy for the year 2011-12.
Conclusion or highlights of the survey.
3. What is economic survey??
The Finance Ministry presents the Economic
Survey in the parliament every year, just before
the Union Budget. It is the ministry's view on the
annual economic development of the country. A
flagship annual document of the Ministry of
Finance, Government of India, Economic Survey
reviews the developments in the Indian economy
over the previous 12 months, summarizes the
performance on major development programmes,
and highlights the policy initiatives of the
government and the prospects of the economy in
the short to medium term. This document is
presented to both houses of Parliament during the
Budget Session
4. Under the topic status of Indian
economy we will discuss
State of the Economy and Prospects
Micro-foundations of Macroeconomic Policy
Fiscal Developments and Public Finance
Prices and Monetary Management
Financial Intermediation and Markets
Balance of Payments
International trade.
Agriculture and Food
Industry
Services Sector
Energy, Infrastructure and Communications
Sustainable Development and Climate Change
Human Development
India and the Global
Economy
5. State of the Economy
and Prospects
Managing growth and price stability are the major challenges of
macroeconomic
policymaking. In 2011-12, India found itself in the heart of these conflicting
demands.
The Indian economy is estimated to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2011-12, after
having
grown at the rate of 8.4 per cent in each of the two preceding years. This
indicates a
slowdown compared not just to the previous two years but 2003 to 2011
(except
2008-9). At the same time, sight must not be lost of the fact that, by any cross
country
comparison, India remains among the front-runners. With agriculture and
services continuing to perform well, India’s slowdown can be attributed almost
entirely
to weakening industrial growth. The manufacturing sector grew by 2.7 per cent
and
0.4 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2011-12. Inflation as measured
by
the wholesale price index (WPI) was high during most of the current fiscal year,
6. State of the Economy
and Prospects
has come down to around zero, with most of the remaining WPI inflation being
driven by non-food manufacturing products. Monetary policy was tightened by
the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during the year to control inflation and curb
inflationary
expectations. The slowing inflation reflects the lagged impact of actions taken
by
the RBI and the government. Reflecting the weak manufacturing activity and
rising
costs, revenues of the centre have remained less than anticipated; and, with
higher than-
budgeted expenditure outgo, a slippage is expected on the fiscal side. The
global
economic environment, which has been tenuous at best throughout the year,
turned
sharply adverse in September 2011 owing to the turmoil in the euro zone, and
questions
about the outlook on the US economy provoked by rating agencies. However,
for the
weakness in economic activity has bottomed out and a gradual upswing is
7.
8.
9. Micro-foundations of
Macroeconomic Policy
For the Indian economy this was a year of disappointing growth performance.
During each of the previous two years, 2009-10 and 2010-11, India’s gross
domestic
product GDP (at factor cost) grew by 8.4 per cent per annum. Further, in 2010-
11,
the GDP at market price grew by a remarkable 9.6 per cent. This performance,
coming in the wake of one of the biggest global recessions in history, was
outstanding.
It fed expectations that India’s short economic downturn in 2008-9, when the
GDP
grew by 6.7 per cent, was behind us and the economy was on its way to full-
fledged
recovery. That did not happen. The index of industrial production (IIP) dropped
sharply in April 2011 and it has, thereafter, been seven months of indifferent
performance. The services sector continued to do well and agriculture
recovered .
10. Micro-foundations of
Macroeconomic Policy
the mood in the economy was increasingly being set by the industrial
sector and, in particular, manufacturing, which constitutes 75.5 per
cent of industrial value added.
Overall GDP growth declined to 7.7 per cent in the first quarter (Q1)
and then to6.9 per cent in Q2 of 2011-12. The advance estimates of
the Central Statistics Office(CSO) has placed growth in real GDP at
6.9 per cent in 2011-12. This is a somewhat curious situation
because how we evaluate these numbers depends critically on the
analyst’s perch. Given the global despondency, and steadily
deteriorating global growth scenario, these numbers look good
rather than bad, especially if one’s perch were to be in Europe.
However, compared to how India has fared since 2003 and,
especially, since 2005, they are disappointing.
11.
12. Fiscal Developments
and Public Finance
Rapid fiscal consolidation was effected in 2010-11 with fiscal deficit dropping
to
4.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 6.5 per cent of GDP in
2009-10.
The Budget for 2011-12 estimated a further reduction to 4.6 per cent of GDP to
be
achieved through a 16 per cent growth in tax revenue, disinvestment receipts
of
` 40,000 crore and moderation in growth in expenditure to 4.9 per cent.
Economic
developments in the current fiscal have panned out very differently than was
envisaged at the time of budget formulation. With a sharp deceleration in real
GDP
growth, particularly in the industry sector and continued high levels of prices in
key
commodities, a slippage is likely in the deficit targets envisaged at the time of
Budget
Estimates. However, with states performing better in overall terms, the
combined
13.
14. Prices and Monetary
Management
Wholesale price index (WPI) inflation, after remaining in an elevated zone at
over
9 per cent through the year, has been falling sharply since December 2011,
aided
by lower food prices, a global economic slowdown, and the impact of nearly
two
years of domestic monetary policy tightening and other measures put in place
by
the government. Monetary policy remained focused on controlling inflation and
anchoring inflationary expectations, with 13 adjustments in policy rates since
March
2010, which has slowed growth. These effects, coupled with a favourable base
effect
in prices and continued global slowdown, are expected to moderate inflation to
around 6.5 to 7.0 per cent by March 2012; inflation is expected to come down
further during 2012-13. The global economy witnessed fresh spells of crisis
during
2011-12, with domestic business and consumer confidence dampening on the
back
15. Prices and Monetary
Management
particularly those of food and metals, softened from high levels, even as crude
oil
prices remain elevated and are a major source of uncertainty and risk. All
emerging
and developing economies (EDEs) witnessed higher inflationary pressures
with
consumer price inflation for EDEs rising to 7.2 per cent for 2011, while that for
advanced economies (AEs) was 2.7 per cent. Looking ahead, vigilance is
called for
in getting back to a low-inflation/sustained high-growth path in India, by
renewed
focus on supply-side measures and improved fiscal consolidation, including
stepped-up
regular adjustments in domestic energy prices. High levels of food stocks and
producer responses to higher protein and other food prices should help
maintain
overall price stability ahead.
PRICES
4.2
16.
17. Financial Intermediation
and Markets
Financial markets in India have acquired greater depth and liquidity over the
years.
Steady reforms since 1991 have led to growing linkages and integration of the
Indian
economy and its financial system with the global economy. Weak global
economic
prospects and continuing uncertainties in the international financial markets
therefore,
have had their impact on the emerging market economies. Sovereign risk
concerns,
particularly in the euro area, affected financial markets for the greater part of
the
year, with the contagion of Greece’s sovereign debt problem spreading to India
and
other economies by way of higher-than-normal levels of volatility.
The funding constraints in international financial markets could impact both the
18. Financial Intermediation
and Markets
availability and cost of foreign funding for banks and corporates. Since
the Indian
financial system is bank dominated, banks’ ability to withstand stress is
critical to
overall financial stability. Indian banks, however, remain robust,
notwithstanding
a decline in capital to risk-weighted assets ratio and a rise in non-
performing asset
levels in the recent past. Capital adequacy levels remain above the
regulatory
requirements. The financial market infrastructure continues to function
without any
major disruption. With further globalization, consolidation,
deregulation, and
diversification of the financial system, the banking business may
become more
complex and riskier. Issues like risk and liquidity management and
enhancing skill
19.
20. Balance of Payments
No country in today’s globalized world can be fully insulated from what
happens
in the global economy and India is no exception to the rule. As the country is
increasingly integrated into the world, it cannot remain impervious to
developments
abroad. The unfolding of the euro zone crisis and uncertainty surrounding the
global
economy have impacted the Indian economy causing drop in growth, higher
current
account deficit (CAD) and declining capital inflows. As in 2008, the
transmission
of the crisis has been mainly through the balance-of-payments (BoP) channel.
Export
growth has decelerated in the third quarter of fiscal 2011-12, while imports
have
remained high, partly because of continued high international oil prices. At the
same time, foreign institutional investment flows have declined, straining the
capital
account and the rupee exchange rate that touched an all-time low of ` 54.23
21.
22. International Trade
Just when the world economy and trade, reeling under the jolt given by
the 2008
global economic crisis started recovering with output and trade in
many developed
and emerging economies reaching pre-crisis levels and in some
countries even
surpassing pre-crisis trends, came the second shock in the form of the
crisis in the
euro area and slowdown in the US. The structural sovereign debt crisis
in the euro
zone area and the fiscal imbalance in the US which led to the present
setback
emanated from the earlier crisis. The tumultuous recession-ridden
years of 2008
and 2009 seem to be re-emerging with fall in world trade being steeper
than the
decline in real gross domestic product (GDP). India’s exports which
had surpassed
23. Agriculture and Food
Agriculture has been a way of life and continues to be the single most
important
livelihood of the masses. Agricultural policy focus in India across
decades has been
on self-sufficiency and self-reliance in food grains production.
Considerable progress
has been made on this front. Food grains production rose from 52
million tonnes in
1951-52 to 244.78 million tonnes in 2010-11. The share of agriculture
in real GDP
has fallen given its lower growth rate relative to industry and services.
However,
what is of concern is that growth in the agricultural sector has quite
often fallen
short of the Plan targets. During the period 1960-61 to 2010-11, food
grains
production grew at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of
around 2 per
24. Agriculture and Food
growth rate of 2.44 per cent and 2.30 per cent respectively compared to 4.72
per
cent during Eighth Five Year Plan. During the current Five Year plan,
agriculture
growth is estimated at 3.28 per cent against a target of 4 per cent. The
Approach
Paper to the Twelfth Five Year Plan emphasizes the need to “redouble our
efforts to
ensure that 4.0 per cent average growth” is achieved during the Plan if not
more.
Without incremental productivity gains and technology diffusion across
regions,
achieving this higher growth may not be feasible and has implications for the
macroeconomic stability given the rising demand of the 1.2 billion people for
food.
Achieving minimum agricultural growth is a pre-requisite for inclusive growth,
reduction of poverty levels, development of the rural economy and enhancing
of
farm incomes.
25.
26. Industry
Industrial growth in the country has, in terms of long run trend, remained
aligned
with the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP). The long-term average
annual
growth of industries comprising mining, manufacturing, and electricity, during
the
post-reform period between 1991-2 and 2011-12, averaged 6.7 per cent as
against
GDP growth of 6.9 per cent. Inclusion of construction in industry raises this
growth
to 7.0 per cent. The share of industry, including construction, in GDP remained
generally stable at around 28 per cent in the post-reform period. Standard
deviation
of the average share was very small and the coefficient of variation under 5
per cent
validates this stability. The share of manufacturing, which is the most dominant
sector within industry, also remained in the 14-16 per cent range during this
period.
The share is modest when compared to that of China (above 40 per cent) and
27.
28. Services Sector
The services sector has been a major and vital
force steadily driving growth in the
Indian economy for more than a decade. The
economy has successfully navigated
the turbulent years of the recent global economic
crisis because of the vitality of this
sector in the domestic economy and its
prominent role in India’s external economic
interactions.
29. Energy, Infrastructure
and Communications
The Eleventh Five Year Plan emphasized the need for removing
infrastructure
bottlenecks for sustained growth. It, therefore, proposed an investment
of US $500
billion in infrastructure sectors through a mix of public and private
sectors to
reduce deficits in identified infrastructure sectors. As a percentage of
the gross
domestic product (GDP), investment in infrastructure was expected to
increase to
around 9 per cent. For the first time the contribution of the private
sector in total
investment in infrastructure was targeted to exceed 30 per cent. Total
investment
in infrastructure during the Eleventh Plan is estimated to increase to
more than 8
per cent of GDP in the terminal year of the Plan --higher by 2.47
percentage
30.
31. Sustainable Development and
Climate Change
This new chapter in the Economic Survey reflects the growing
challenges of
sustainable development and climate change. Pressures on land, air,
water, forests
and loss of plant and animal habitat are growing. At the same time, a
warming
planet is already causing adverse effects, such as more frequent
extreme weather
events. The science and evidence of climate change are compelling.
Both India and
the world are reviewing the challenges ahead. The Earth Summit in
Rio in June
2012 will take stock of sustainable development priorities globally. The
Durban
meeting in December 2011 has set some directions for appropriate
responses to
climate change. And closer to home, the Twelfth Five Year Plan,
commencing in
32.
33. Human Development
The principal objective of development planning is human development and
the
attainment of higher standard of living for the people. This requires a more
equitable
distribution of development benefits and opportunities, better living
environment
and empowerment of the poor and marginalized. There is special need to
empower
women who can act as catalysts for change. In making the development
process
inclusive, the challenge is to formulate policies and programmes to bridge
regional,
social and economic disparities in as effective and sustainable a manner as
possible.
The Eleventh Five Year Plan sought to address this challenge by providing a
comprehensive strategy for inclusive development, building on the growing
economic
strength of the economy in the past decades. This strategy has to be
continued and
34.
35. India and the Global
Economy
The big story of the last decade for India has been its arrival on the
global
scene. The Indian economy had broken free of the low-growth trap
from the
early 1980s. By the mid-1990s, following the economic reforms of
1991-3, India
began to appear as a player of some significance in the global
economy. Then,
following the East Asian crisis of the late 1990s, and from the first
years of the
first decade of the 21st century there was no looking back. India’s
exports began
to climb, its foreign exchange reserves, which for decades had
hovered around
5 billion dollars, rose exponentially after the economic reforms and in
little
more than a decade had risen to 300 billion dollars. Indian
corporations that
36.
37. Conclusion or highlights of
economic survey 2011-12
Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2011-12 :
Rate of growth estimated to be 6.9%. Outlook for growth and
stability is promising with real GDP growth expected to pick up to
7.6% in 2012-13 and 8.6% in 2013-14.
Agriculture and Services sectors continue to perform well. 2.5 %
growth in Agro sector forecast. Services sector grows by 9.4 %, its
share in GDP goes up to 59%.
Industrial growth pegged at 4-5 percent, expected to improve as
economic recovery resumes.
Inflation on WPI was high but showed clear slow down by the year-
end; this is likely to spur investment activities leading to positive
impact on growth.
WPI food inflation dropped from 20.2% in February 2010 to 1.6% in
January 2012; calibrated steps initiated to rein-in inflation on top
priority.
India remains among the fastest growing economies of the world.
Country’s sovereign credit rating rose by a substantial 2.98 percent
in 2007-12.
Fiscal consolidation on track - savings & capital formation expected
38. Conclusion or highlights of
economic survey 2011-12
Exports grew @ 40.5% in the first half of this fiscal
and imports grew by 30.4%. Foreign trade
performance to remain a key driver of growth. Foreign
reserves enhanced - covering nearly the entire
external debt stock.
Central spending on social services goes up to 18.5%
this fiscal from 13.4% in 2006-07.
MNREGA coverage increases to 5.49 crore
households in 2010-11.
Sustainable development and climate change
concerns on high priority.
Summary of Economic Survey
Survey Pegs GDP Growth At 6.9% in 2011-12
Outlook Brighter for Next Fiscals
39. References
http://indiabudget.nic.in
www.wikipedia.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HziikcUT6
8 (finance minister shri pranab mukherjee
speech on budget 2012)