Real GDP increased 4.0% in the second quarter of 2014, after decreasing 2.1% in the first quarter. This upturn primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment, exports, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in state and local government spending, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in residential fixed investment, partly offset by an acceleration in imports. The BEA also released its annual revision of estimates from 1999 to the first quarter of 2014, revising down real GDP growth rates slightly for 2011-2012 but up slightly for 2013.
The document provides an advance estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2013 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It finds that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3, up from 2.5% in Q2. The growth was driven by increases in personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, residential and nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, while imports and federal government spending decreased. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the acceleration was primarily due to decreases in imports and increases in private inventory investment and state and local government spending, partially offset by decreases in exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and personal consumption.
This presentation provides analysis of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Canada. The presentation will highlight areas like consumer spending, exports, government spending and other areas.
Bank deposits rose 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in February as both businesses and households increased savings despite economic slowdown. Manufacturing output grew slightly by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year in February, led by wood, metals, and furniture industries. Inflation rose to 0.4% in March due to both global commodity prices and domestic factors. Conditions are expected to be favorable for lending to improve following new housing loan rules and Eurosystem stimulus measures.
GDP is the total market value of final goods and services produced within an economy in a given year. It is measured using the production, income, and expenditure approaches. GDP components include consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Real GDP controls for inflation while nominal GDP is the current dollar value. The business cycle includes periods of expansion and recession as real GDP rises and falls.
Real GDP increased 3.5% in Q3 2009, up from a 0.7% decrease in Q2 2009. This upturn was driven by increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, exports, and residential investment, partially offset by an increase in imports. Consumer spending increased sharply, led by durable goods such as motor vehicles. Inventory investment turned up. Exports increased, led by nonautomotive capital goods and automotive vehicles. Imports also increased.
- GDP growth in the UK has slowed slightly in 2015 compared to 2014, with quarterly growth of 0.5% in Q3 2015. Private consumption and investment have remained robust drivers of growth.
- Annual inflation has remained close to zero for most of 2015, driven by falling goods prices, while services inflation has remained around 2.5%.
- The UK labor market continues to strengthen, with record high employment, falling unemployment, and a declining inactivity rate, indicating further tightening in the labor market.
1) GDP growth in the UK slowed to 0.4% in Q3 2015, down from a previous estimate of 0.5%, with growth averaging 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2015.
2) Household consumption has been the main driver of GDP growth over the past year, while net trade and private housing investment have dragged on growth.
3) The UK's household saving ratio fell to 4.4% in Q3 2015, its lowest level since early 2010, as consumption growth has outpaced income growth in recent years.
Prévisions économiques du printemps 2019 pour le LuxembourgPaperjam_redaction
Luxembourg's GDP is forecast to grow at a steady pace over 2019 and 2020, driven mainly by domestic demand supported by strong labor market conditions. Inflation is set to remain under 2.0% as moderating oil prices offset wage growth and tax measures. The headline budget surplus is forecast to decline from recent high levels as revenue growth slows and expenditures rise, falling to 1.4% of GDP in 2019 and 1.1% in 2020.
The document provides an advance estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2013 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It finds that real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in Q3, up from 2.5% in Q2. The growth was driven by increases in personal consumption, private inventory investment, exports, residential and nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending, while imports and federal government spending decreased. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the acceleration was primarily due to decreases in imports and increases in private inventory investment and state and local government spending, partially offset by decreases in exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and personal consumption.
This presentation provides analysis of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) for Canada. The presentation will highlight areas like consumer spending, exports, government spending and other areas.
Bank deposits rose 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in February as both businesses and households increased savings despite economic slowdown. Manufacturing output grew slightly by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year in February, led by wood, metals, and furniture industries. Inflation rose to 0.4% in March due to both global commodity prices and domestic factors. Conditions are expected to be favorable for lending to improve following new housing loan rules and Eurosystem stimulus measures.
GDP is the total market value of final goods and services produced within an economy in a given year. It is measured using the production, income, and expenditure approaches. GDP components include consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. Real GDP controls for inflation while nominal GDP is the current dollar value. The business cycle includes periods of expansion and recession as real GDP rises and falls.
Real GDP increased 3.5% in Q3 2009, up from a 0.7% decrease in Q2 2009. This upturn was driven by increases in consumer spending, inventory investment, exports, and residential investment, partially offset by an increase in imports. Consumer spending increased sharply, led by durable goods such as motor vehicles. Inventory investment turned up. Exports increased, led by nonautomotive capital goods and automotive vehicles. Imports also increased.
- GDP growth in the UK has slowed slightly in 2015 compared to 2014, with quarterly growth of 0.5% in Q3 2015. Private consumption and investment have remained robust drivers of growth.
- Annual inflation has remained close to zero for most of 2015, driven by falling goods prices, while services inflation has remained around 2.5%.
- The UK labor market continues to strengthen, with record high employment, falling unemployment, and a declining inactivity rate, indicating further tightening in the labor market.
1) GDP growth in the UK slowed to 0.4% in Q3 2015, down from a previous estimate of 0.5%, with growth averaging 0.5% in the first three quarters of 2015.
2) Household consumption has been the main driver of GDP growth over the past year, while net trade and private housing investment have dragged on growth.
3) The UK's household saving ratio fell to 4.4% in Q3 2015, its lowest level since early 2010, as consumption growth has outpaced income growth in recent years.
Prévisions économiques du printemps 2019 pour le LuxembourgPaperjam_redaction
Luxembourg's GDP is forecast to grow at a steady pace over 2019 and 2020, driven mainly by domestic demand supported by strong labor market conditions. Inflation is set to remain under 2.0% as moderating oil prices offset wage growth and tax measures. The headline budget surplus is forecast to decline from recent high levels as revenue growth slows and expenditures rise, falling to 1.4% of GDP in 2019 and 1.1% in 2020.
Canada’s gross domestic product contracted at the fastest pace in more than seven years in May as wildfires curbed Alberta oil production.
The economy shrank 0.6 percent after an April expansion of 0.1 percent, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.5 percent contraction. The drop was “primarily due” to the record 22 percent plunge in non-conventional oil production, the agency said, which typically refers to the technique used in the oil sands of extracting bitumen by mining it or injecting steam into the ground.
Analysts see the damage from the fires as contained and predict the losses will be more than recovered in the second half.
“We would still not regard this as a bad news story,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “The oil production losses will be fully reversed over the next few monthly reports, and the rest of the economy is still grinding along at a pace of around 1 percent.”
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-29/canada-gdp-shrinks-most-since-2009-as-wildfires-crimp-oil-output
World bank macro update october 2014 eng fininvestinlviv
The document summarizes recent economic developments and the medium-term outlook for Ukraine. It notes that GDP declined sharply by 8% in 2014 due to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, making fiscal adjustment challenging. While the current account deficit adjusted rapidly after currency devaluation, balance of payment pressures remain high due to large external debt refinancing needs. The economic disruption in eastern Ukraine is projected to delay economic recovery at least in the first half of 2015, with GDP growth not expected to return until 2016 if the situation stabilizes and reforms are accelerated. Substantial downside risks persist including a prolonged conflict in the east.
The Statistical Institute of Belize reported that the Belize economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2014, with GDP growth of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2013. Several major economic sectors saw higher production, including agriculture, electricity and water, manufacturing, and hotels and restaurants. Agriculture rebounded with a 26% growth thanks to large increases in sugarcane and citrus production.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
The document discusses the Retail Price Index (RPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), the two main inflation measures in the UK. It notes that historically the RPI was used more widely, but the CPI is now used as the inflation target by the Bank of England. The wedge between the RPI and CPI inflation rates has increased in recent years due to differences in their methodologies and components, particularly related to housing. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects the long-term wedge between the two measures to be around 1.0-1.4% going forward based on various fiscal changes.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance summer forecast predicts economic growth of 2% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011, with inflation around 2.5-2.6% both years. Exports have recovered rapidly due to increased competitiveness and external demand. While employment is increasing, the pace is more restrained than desired. Risks to the outlook include uncertainty about export growth continuing in 2011 and higher than expected inflation in the short term.
Economic and Government Policies - United states - June 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discusses both economic as well as government policies for USA (United States). The focus will be on the following areas:
1. Debt to GDP
2. Budget deficits
3. Trade
4. Retail Sales
5. Income inequality
6. Banking Sector
7. Taxation
8. Debt Holders
9. Nearshoring
10. housing
11. Household debt
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
- WCI Communities held an earnings conference call to discuss its third quarter 2014 results.
- The company saw continued growth in new home orders, deliveries, and backlog. New orders increased 34% and deliveries grew 4% compared to the prior year quarter.
- WCI has a strong balance sheet with $170 million of cash and an undrawn $75 million credit facility, positioning it well for future growth through land acquisition and development.
This document provides a summary of the United States government's budget for fiscal year 2015. It includes sections on key priorities and funding for federal departments and agencies. The budget aims to strengthen the economy, create jobs, and promote opportunity through investments in infrastructure, innovation, education and job training. It also outlines plans to reform business taxes and regulations to encourage companies to create more jobs in the US. The budget supports efforts to develop advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and address climate change while continuing to improve the nation's long-term fiscal position.
The Bank of Spain has revised down its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy to 2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, slightly lower than government and other forecasts. This is due to slowing domestic and external demand, and GDP revisions. The public deficit is expected to reach 2.4% of GDP in 2019, exceeding targets. Exports increased 2% between January-July 2019 while imports grew 1.5%, reducing the trade deficit. German economic indicators point to a possible recession in Q3 2019 as manufacturing activity declines. US economic data shows slowing consumer confidence and manufacturing while home sales rose. India's GDP growth slowed to 5% in Q2 2019, below forecasts, prompting fiscal stimulus measures.
Italy's economy contracted 1.9% in 2013 but is expected to slowly recover over 2014-2015, driven initially by stronger external demand and industrial activity. Unemployment remains high at around 12.5% while inflation is low. The government deficit is projected to decline gradually to 2.2% of GDP by 2015 under a no-policy change assumption, while the debt-to-GDP ratio peaks at around 134% in 2014 before stabilizing.
The document summarizes economic data from Belize in January 2014 and 2013. For January 2014, inflation continued an upward trend since August 2013, with consumer prices increasing 1.8% compared to January 2013. Food and transportation prices rose the most, at 4% and 5% respectively. For 2013, fishing saw the largest growth at 28% due to increased shrimp farming and exports. Construction also saw double-digit growth from increased infrastructure projects. Services such as wholesale, retail, government and hotels grew between 4-6%. Manufacturing and mining declined, with manufacturing down 12% due to lower sugar and citrus production. Agriculture fell 13% due to lower banana, sugarcane and citrus outputs.
This document discusses how the government sector affects equilibrium GDP in an open economy model. It states that government spending and taxes impact GDP through their effects on autonomous and induced spending. Government spending is part of autonomous spending, while taxes reduce disposable income. A change in the tax rate would shift the aggregate expenditures curve and change equilibrium GDP. The multiplier also depends on the tax rate, with a lower rate leading to a higher multiplier. Equilibrium requires aggregate expenditures to equal GDP.
The document analyzes the President's FY 2016 budget. It finds that the budget would reduce deficits by about $930 billion over 10 years relative to current law, with debt remaining stable at around 73% of GDP by 2025. Spending would rise from 20.9% of GDP in 2015 to 22.2% in 2025, while revenue would rise from 17.7% to 19.7% of GDP. Deficits would remain at around 2.5% of GDP each year. However, the budget does little to reduce debt levels or slow the growth of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare over the long run.
This document is the 65th annual economic report for Faulkner County prepared by Roger Lewis, PhD. It summarizes key economic indicators for Faulkner County and Conway in 2015. It found that Conway's unemployment rate was the lowest in 7 years at 4.7% and below both state and national rates. Real estate sales increased 14% from 2014 based on revenue stamps. However, the value of building permits declined 18% and no multi-family units were constructed. The report provides statistics on population, cost of living, sales tax collections, banking deposits, and impacts from the natural gas industry and agriculture.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
The Quebec economy grew at a slower pace of 1.8% annualized in the first quarter of 2018, its slowest in 6 quarters, due to slower household expenditure growth. Household savings increased to a high of 7.3% while business investment and government spending continued trending upward, making the expansion more broad-based. However, Quebec's international trade balance deteriorated before US tariffs and the weakness was concentrated in aluminum exports, though other exports grew double-digit. Overall the economy started 2018 respectably but at a slower pace than 2017 and momentum may not accelerate given global trade tensions and a tight labor market.
This document provides a summary of revisions made to estimates of U.S. economic output (GDP) from 2003 to the first quarter of 2011 as part of an annual revision process. Key points:
- Real GDP growth for 2007-2010 was revised down by an average annual rate of 0.3 percentage points. Growth during and after the recession was also revised down slightly.
- Revisions were generally small before 2008 but saw larger changes from 2008-2011, such as GDP declining 0.3 percentage points in 2008 rather than a slight increase.
- Price indexes like PCE and core PCE inflation were revised up slightly from 1.4-1.5% to 1.6-1.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
Canada’s gross domestic product contracted at the fastest pace in more than seven years in May as wildfires curbed Alberta oil production.
The economy shrank 0.6 percent after an April expansion of 0.1 percent, Statistics Canada said Friday in Ottawa. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a 0.5 percent contraction. The drop was “primarily due” to the record 22 percent plunge in non-conventional oil production, the agency said, which typically refers to the technique used in the oil sands of extracting bitumen by mining it or injecting steam into the ground.
Analysts see the damage from the fires as contained and predict the losses will be more than recovered in the second half.
“We would still not regard this as a bad news story,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “The oil production losses will be fully reversed over the next few monthly reports, and the rest of the economy is still grinding along at a pace of around 1 percent.”
Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-29/canada-gdp-shrinks-most-since-2009-as-wildfires-crimp-oil-output
World bank macro update october 2014 eng fininvestinlviv
The document summarizes recent economic developments and the medium-term outlook for Ukraine. It notes that GDP declined sharply by 8% in 2014 due to the conflict in eastern Ukraine, making fiscal adjustment challenging. While the current account deficit adjusted rapidly after currency devaluation, balance of payment pressures remain high due to large external debt refinancing needs. The economic disruption in eastern Ukraine is projected to delay economic recovery at least in the first half of 2015, with GDP growth not expected to return until 2016 if the situation stabilizes and reforms are accelerated. Substantial downside risks persist including a prolonged conflict in the east.
The Statistical Institute of Belize reported that the Belize economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2014, with GDP growth of 8.7% compared to the same period in 2013. Several major economic sectors saw higher production, including agriculture, electricity and water, manufacturing, and hotels and restaurants. Agriculture rebounded with a 26% growth thanks to large increases in sugarcane and citrus production.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
The document discusses the Retail Price Index (RPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), the two main inflation measures in the UK. It notes that historically the RPI was used more widely, but the CPI is now used as the inflation target by the Bank of England. The wedge between the RPI and CPI inflation rates has increased in recent years due to differences in their methodologies and components, particularly related to housing. The Office for Budget Responsibility projects the long-term wedge between the two measures to be around 1.0-1.4% going forward based on various fiscal changes.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
The Estonian Ministry of Finance summer forecast predicts economic growth of 2% in 2010 and 3.6% in 2011, with inflation around 2.5-2.6% both years. Exports have recovered rapidly due to increased competitiveness and external demand. While employment is increasing, the pace is more restrained than desired. Risks to the outlook include uncertainty about export growth continuing in 2011 and higher than expected inflation in the short term.
Economic and Government Policies - United states - June 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation discusses both economic as well as government policies for USA (United States). The focus will be on the following areas:
1. Debt to GDP
2. Budget deficits
3. Trade
4. Retail Sales
5. Income inequality
6. Banking Sector
7. Taxation
8. Debt Holders
9. Nearshoring
10. housing
11. Household debt
Market growth has come despite trade wars between the United States and other trade partners, particularly China. Stocks propelled forward in July due to favorable economic indicators and encouraging corporate earnings reports.
- WCI Communities held an earnings conference call to discuss its third quarter 2014 results.
- The company saw continued growth in new home orders, deliveries, and backlog. New orders increased 34% and deliveries grew 4% compared to the prior year quarter.
- WCI has a strong balance sheet with $170 million of cash and an undrawn $75 million credit facility, positioning it well for future growth through land acquisition and development.
This document provides a summary of the United States government's budget for fiscal year 2015. It includes sections on key priorities and funding for federal departments and agencies. The budget aims to strengthen the economy, create jobs, and promote opportunity through investments in infrastructure, innovation, education and job training. It also outlines plans to reform business taxes and regulations to encourage companies to create more jobs in the US. The budget supports efforts to develop advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and address climate change while continuing to improve the nation's long-term fiscal position.
The Bank of Spain has revised down its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy to 2% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020, slightly lower than government and other forecasts. This is due to slowing domestic and external demand, and GDP revisions. The public deficit is expected to reach 2.4% of GDP in 2019, exceeding targets. Exports increased 2% between January-July 2019 while imports grew 1.5%, reducing the trade deficit. German economic indicators point to a possible recession in Q3 2019 as manufacturing activity declines. US economic data shows slowing consumer confidence and manufacturing while home sales rose. India's GDP growth slowed to 5% in Q2 2019, below forecasts, prompting fiscal stimulus measures.
Italy's economy contracted 1.9% in 2013 but is expected to slowly recover over 2014-2015, driven initially by stronger external demand and industrial activity. Unemployment remains high at around 12.5% while inflation is low. The government deficit is projected to decline gradually to 2.2% of GDP by 2015 under a no-policy change assumption, while the debt-to-GDP ratio peaks at around 134% in 2014 before stabilizing.
The document summarizes economic data from Belize in January 2014 and 2013. For January 2014, inflation continued an upward trend since August 2013, with consumer prices increasing 1.8% compared to January 2013. Food and transportation prices rose the most, at 4% and 5% respectively. For 2013, fishing saw the largest growth at 28% due to increased shrimp farming and exports. Construction also saw double-digit growth from increased infrastructure projects. Services such as wholesale, retail, government and hotels grew between 4-6%. Manufacturing and mining declined, with manufacturing down 12% due to lower sugar and citrus production. Agriculture fell 13% due to lower banana, sugarcane and citrus outputs.
This document discusses how the government sector affects equilibrium GDP in an open economy model. It states that government spending and taxes impact GDP through their effects on autonomous and induced spending. Government spending is part of autonomous spending, while taxes reduce disposable income. A change in the tax rate would shift the aggregate expenditures curve and change equilibrium GDP. The multiplier also depends on the tax rate, with a lower rate leading to a higher multiplier. Equilibrium requires aggregate expenditures to equal GDP.
The document analyzes the President's FY 2016 budget. It finds that the budget would reduce deficits by about $930 billion over 10 years relative to current law, with debt remaining stable at around 73% of GDP by 2025. Spending would rise from 20.9% of GDP in 2015 to 22.2% in 2025, while revenue would rise from 17.7% to 19.7% of GDP. Deficits would remain at around 2.5% of GDP each year. However, the budget does little to reduce debt levels or slow the growth of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare over the long run.
This document is the 65th annual economic report for Faulkner County prepared by Roger Lewis, PhD. It summarizes key economic indicators for Faulkner County and Conway in 2015. It found that Conway's unemployment rate was the lowest in 7 years at 4.7% and below both state and national rates. Real estate sales increased 14% from 2014 based on revenue stamps. However, the value of building permits declined 18% and no multi-family units were constructed. The report provides statistics on population, cost of living, sales tax collections, banking deposits, and impacts from the natural gas industry and agriculture.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
The Quebec economy grew at a slower pace of 1.8% annualized in the first quarter of 2018, its slowest in 6 quarters, due to slower household expenditure growth. Household savings increased to a high of 7.3% while business investment and government spending continued trending upward, making the expansion more broad-based. However, Quebec's international trade balance deteriorated before US tariffs and the weakness was concentrated in aluminum exports, though other exports grew double-digit. Overall the economy started 2018 respectably but at a slower pace than 2017 and momentum may not accelerate given global trade tensions and a tight labor market.
This document provides a summary of revisions made to estimates of U.S. economic output (GDP) from 2003 to the first quarter of 2011 as part of an annual revision process. Key points:
- Real GDP growth for 2007-2010 was revised down by an average annual rate of 0.3 percentage points. Growth during and after the recession was also revised down slightly.
- Revisions were generally small before 2008 but saw larger changes from 2008-2011, such as GDP declining 0.3 percentage points in 2008 rather than a slight increase.
- Price indexes like PCE and core PCE inflation were revised up slightly from 1.4-1.5% to 1.6-1.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
Consumption, which includes household spending on goods and services, is the largest component of US GDP, making up approximately 70% of total GDP. Investment, which includes business spending on equipment, software, and structures, accounts for around 14% of GDP. Government purchases of goods and services by federal, state and local governments makes up about 21% of GDP. Net exports, which is exports minus imports, typically subtracts from GDP as imports are generally larger than exports. The US economy experienced a significant downturn in 2008 as reflected in the GDP components, with decreases in consumption, investment, and net exports.
The US economy saw a slowdown in growth in the first quarter of 2016 due to declines in business spending and exports. India and Mauritius signed a new tax treaty that will allow India to tax capital gains from shares of Indian companies acquired by Mauritian investors after April 2017, closing a loophole that had allowed round-tripping of funds. The US Federal Reserve expects the economy and job market to continue gradual improvement but will raise rates slowly.
GDP is the most widely used measure of a nation's economic performance. It measures the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given period, usually one year. GDP is commonly calculated using the expenditure method, which adds up consumption (C), gross investment (I), government spending (G), and net exports (exports - imports). Nominal GDP uses current prices while real GDP adjusts for inflation to reflect the quantity of goods and services produced. While GDP provides useful information, it has limitations as it does not account for non-monetary activities or factors like income distribution and environmental degradation.
US International Trade in Goods and Services | Dec 2014Dr Dev Kambhampati
The U.S. trade deficit increased in December 2014 to $46.6 billion, up $6.8 billion from November. Exports decreased $1.5 billion to $194.9 billion while imports increased $5.3 billion to $241.4 billion. For all of 2014, the trade deficit increased $28.7 billion to $505 billion as exports grew 2.9% to $2.345 trillion and imports rose 3.4% to $2.850 trillion. The December deficit reflected a rise in the goods deficit to $66 billion and a small increase in the services surplus to $19.5 billion.
- The US goods and services trade deficit decreased slightly in July to $54.0 billion from a revised $55.5 billion in June. Exports increased $1.2 billion while imports decreased $0.4 billion.
- Exports of goods increased $1.2 billion in July driven by increases in consumer goods like pharmaceuticals and capital goods. Imports of goods decreased $0.4 billion led by a fall in computer imports.
- The trade deficit with China decreased in July as US exports to China fell less than imports from China. The surplus with South and Central America also decreased as US exports to the region fell more than imports.
Us econ ppt lynchburg 3-4-2011 final_dr.shealynchburg
The U.S. economy is recovering slowly with decent GDP growth and a slowly improving labor market, though unemployment remains high. Inflation remains low despite rising commodity prices. Recent forecasts point to accelerating growth in 2011 of around 3.5%. Some data signals like consumer confidence are encouraging, but other data like durable goods orders have been weak. Housing prices continue to decline due to excess supply, which could dampen consumer spending. Upside risks include normal cyclical dynamics boosting growth, while downside risks include higher oil prices and fiscal austerity measures dampening growth.
In August-September, 2014 issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recently held G20 Summit; movement in oil prices and Ukraine situation in the section on Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation and Trade. In the section on Taxation, the urgency of implementing GST in India is discussed. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Food Processing Industry. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on improving investment in Infrastructure.
This document provides Italy's draft budgetary plan for 2019. It summarizes recent economic trends in Italy, including slowing GDP growth and employment gains. It then outlines the government's macroeconomic and fiscal targets over 2019-2021, including a planned reduction in the budget deficit from 2.4% of GDP in 2019 to 1.8% by 2021. The plan expects GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5% in 2019 and above 1.6% in 2020-2021, driven by stronger domestic demand, exports, and employment growth. Public investment is forecasted to rise to support the economic expansion.
The document summarizes economic data from the past week. It reports that 257,000 non-farm jobs were added in January, with revisions adding 147,000 additional jobs in prior months. Personal income grew 0.3% in December while consumer spending fell 0.3%, and the trade deficit widened as imports grew faster than exports. Several indicators pointed to ongoing but slower manufacturing growth.
This document provides economic forecasts and analysis from First Trust Advisors. It includes consensus forecasts for upcoming US economic data releases. It also provides First Trust's forecast for 2nd quarter 2022 US GDP growth of 0.5% annually. While the first quarter saw a contraction, First Trust argues the US is not currently in a recession based on continued strength in jobs, industrial production, and other data. Their GDP forecast assumes modest consumer spending growth, gains in business investment and exports, and declines in home building and growth in inventories.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2015Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The document discusses the positive trends seen in the US economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010 based on an analysis of GDP, consumer spending, housing starts, industrial production, and unemployment rates. Specifically, it notes that real GDP grew 5.6% in Q4 2009 due to increased exports, inventory investment, and consumer spending. Housing starts rebounded but single-family starts declined. Consumer prices rose mildly while retail sales and vehicle sales increased. Industrial production also increased but at a slower rate. However, unemployment remained high at 9.7%.
Security Analysis Project on Tata Global BeveragesShameem Hamed
The document discusses India's economic performance in 2010-2011. It covers GDP growth, inflation, foreign trade, foreign investments, forex reserves, and corporate sector performance. It then provides an overview of India's FMCG sector, including key categories and companies. The FMCG sector contributed around Rs. 90,000 crores annually and is a major part of the Indian economy and services sector. Major players like HUL, Marico and Nestle have increased market share in key categories.
This document discusses the economic slowdown in India and reasons for it. It notes that monetary and fiscal policy measures alone cannot solve the problem and that sustained growth requires structural reforms. It then lists several warning signs for the global economy that could further impact India, such as the US-China trade war and recessions in other countries. Domestic factors like falling auto and real estate sales are also cited. Data on consumption, investment, exports and the roles of different economic sectors in India's GDP are presented. Recommendations include reducing interest rates, allowing currency depreciation, fiscal stimulus, and broader reforms.
national income, estimation of national income, factors not considering while estimating the national income, gdp , ndp, nnp, gnp, personal income, per capita income, disposable income,national income at factor cost, methods of estimating national income
The document provides a summary of India's annual national income estimates for 2020-21 and quarterly GDP estimates for Q4 of 2020-21. Some key points:
- India's GDP in 2020-21 is estimated to be ₹135.13 lakh crore at constant prices, a contraction of 7.3% compared to the previous fiscal year.
- GDP at current prices is estimated to be ₹197.46 lakh crore for 2020-21, a growth of -3.0% year-on-year.
- For Q4 2020-21, GDP at constant prices is estimated at ₹38.96 lakh crore, a growth of
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
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New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
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"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
1. NEWS RELEASE
EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, WEDNESDAY, JULY 30, 2014
BEA 14-34
Lisa Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)
Nicole Mayerhauser: (202) 606-9715 (Revision)
Brent Moulton: (202) 606-9606
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: SECOND QUARTER 2014 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE)
ANNUAL REVISION: 1999 THROUGH FIRST QUARTER 2014
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014,
according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter,
real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised).
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3
and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 10). The "second" estimate for the second quarter,
based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed
investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and
product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2014. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the first quarter of
2014, GDP and select components were revised back to the first quarter of 1999 (see the Technical
Note). More information is available in "Preview of Upcoming NIPA Revision" in the May Survey of
Current Business and on BEA's Web site. The August Survey will contain an article describing the
annual revision in detail.
NOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
2. Real GDP increased 4.0 percent in the second quarter, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first.
This upturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in private inventory
investment and in exports, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in state and local government spending, an
acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were
partly offset by an acceleration in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the first.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.2 percent in the first. Durable goods increased 14.0 percent, compared with an
increase of 3.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.5 percent; it was unchanged in the first quarter.
Services increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the
first.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.6 percent in the first. Investment in nonresidential structures increased 5.3 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 7.0 percent, in contrast to
a decrease of 1.0 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 4.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 7.5 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 5.3 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 9.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 9.2 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.8 percent
in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the first. National defense increased
1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.0 percent. Nondefense decreased 3.7 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 6.6 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 3.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.66 percentage points to the second-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 1.16 percentage points from the first-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $93.4 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $35.2 billion in the first
quarter and $81.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.3
percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the first.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 4.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent in the
first.
- 2 -
3. Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $208.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $176.6 billion in the first. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an upturn
in personal dividend income and a smaller decrease in farm proprietors' income that were partly offset
by a deceleration in wages and salaries.
Personal current taxes increased $15.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase
of $24.4 billion in the first.
Disposable personal income increased $192.7 billion, or 6.2 percent, in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $152.1 billion, or 4.9 percent, in the first. Real disposable personal
income increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in the first.
Personal outlays increased $138.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of
$76.1 billion in the first.
Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $682.9 billion in the
second quarter, compared with $629.0 billion in the first.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the first. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
6.0 percent, or $250.7 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,294.7 billion. In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP decreased 0.8 percent, or $34.3 billion.
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
- 3 -
4. Revisions for the first quarter of 2014
For the first quarter of 2014, real GDP is now estimated to have declined 2.1 percent; in the
previously published estimates, first-quarter GDP was estimated to have declined 2.9 percent. The 0.8-
percentage point upward revision to the percent change in first-quarter real GDP primarily reflected
upward revisions to private inventory investment, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to PCE.
Previous Estimate Revised
Real GDP………………………….….. -2.9 -2.1
Current-dollar GDP…………………… -1.7 -0.8
Real GDI…………………………….... -2.6 -0.7
Gross domestic purchases price index… 1.3 1.4
-Continued -
- 4 -
5. Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The revised estimates reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and product
accounts (NIPAs). In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the
first quarter of 2014, this "flexible" annual revision results in revisions to current-dollar GDP beginning
with the first quarter of 1999.1
The reference year remains 2009. When the estimates for the reference
year (2009) are revised, the levels of the related index numbers and chained-dollar estimates are also
revised for the entire historical period; revisions to percent changes before the first quarter of 1999 are
small and mostly due to rounding.
Because of the additional data shown, tables 3, 11, and 12 of this release are each divided into
two separate tables -- 3A and 3B, 11A and 11B, and 12A and 12B. There are also a number of special
tables that compare the revised and previously published statistics for select periods:
• Table 1A shows the percent change in real GDP and related measures; table 1B shows revisions
to current-dollar GDP, to national income, and to personal income; table 2A shows contributions
to the percent change in real GDP; and table 4A shows the percent change in the chain-type price
indexes for GDP and related measures.
• Tables 7A and 7B show annual levels, percent changes, and revisions to percent changes for
current-dollar GDP and for real (chained-dollar) GDP, respectively.
• Table 12C shows revisions to corporate profits by industry.
With the release of the annual revision, statistics for select NIPA tables will be available on
BEA's Web site (www.bea.gov). Shortly after the GDP release, BEA will post a table on its Web site
showing the major current-dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national
income, and personal income. Additionally, the August 2014 Survey of Current Business will contain an
article describing these revisions. That issue will also contain an analysis of the current quarterly
estimate of GDP and related series ("GDP and the Economy").
Revisions to real GDP
For this annual revision, the most notable revisions are generally limited to the period from 2011
through the first quarter of 2014 and largely reflect the incorporation of newly available and revised
source data for the underlying components (see the box below). The revisions for earlier periods are
small.
• For 2011–2013, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent; in the previously
published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. From the
fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDP increased at an average annual rate
of 1.8 percent, the same rate as in the previously published estimates.
1
BEA's plans to undertake "flexible" annual revisions that include revisions for longer periods than the
traditional three-year period were described in the June 2008 Survey of Current Business at
www.bea.gov/scb.
- 5 -
6. • The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point for 2011, was revised
down 0.5 percentage point for 2012, and was revised up 0.3 percentage point for 2013.
o For 2011, the largest contributors to the downward revision to the percent change in real
GDP were a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and an
upward revision to imports.
o For 2012, the largest contributors to the downward revision were downward revisions to
PCE and to state and local government spending.
o For 2013, the largest contributors to the upward revision were upward revisions to PCE
and to state and local government spending; these revisions were partly offset by a
downward revision to private inventory investment.
• The revisions to the annual estimates for 2012 and 2013 reflect partly offsetting revisions to the
quarters within the year. For 2012, the annual rate of change in GDP was revised down 1.4
percentage points for the first quarter and was revised down 0.3 percentage point for the third
quarter, while the growth rate for the second quarter was revised up 0.4 percentage point; the
growth rate for the fourth quarter was unrevised. The upward revision to the percent change in
real GDP for 2013 reflects upward revisions to the first, third, and fourth quarters that were
partly offset by a downward revision to the second quarter.
• For the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2014, the average revision (without
regard to sign) to the percent change in real GDP was 0.6 percentage point. The revisions did
not change the direction of the change in real GDP (increase or decrease) for any of the quarters.
• For the expansion from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDP
increased at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, the same rate as in the previously published
estimates.
• Current-dollar GDP was revised down for all 3 years: $15.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011;
$81.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2012; and $31.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
Revisions to price measures
• Gross domestic purchases -- From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, the
average annual rate of increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases was revised up
from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent.
• Personal consumption expenditures -- From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of
2014, the average annual rate of increase in the price index for PCE was 1.7 percent, the same
rate as in the previously published estimates; the increase in the "core" PCE price index (which
excludes food and energy) was revised up from 1.5 percent to 1.6 percent.
- 6 -
7. Revisions to income and saving measures
• National income was revised down $43.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2011, was revised up $97.9
billion, or 0.7 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $34.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
o For 2011, downward revisions to corporate profits and to nonfarm proprietors' income
were partly offset by an upward revision to net interest.
o For 2012, upward revisions to net interest, to nonfarm proprietors' income, and to
corporate profits were partly offset by a downward revision to supplements to wages and
salaries.
o For 2013, upward revisions to nonfarm proprietors' income and to net interest were partly
offset by downward revisions to farm proprietors' income and to wages and salaries.
• Corporate profits was revised down $61.1 billion, or 3.3 percent, for 2011, was revised up $13.3
billion, or 0.7 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $4.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
• Personal income was revised up $10.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011, was revised up $143.9
billion, or 1.0 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $32.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
• For 2011–2013, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was
revised up 0.1 percentage point from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent.
• The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was
revised up from 5.7 percent to 6.0 percent for 2011, was revised up from 5.6 percent to 7.2
percent for 2012, and was revised up from 4.5 percent to 4.9 percent for 2013.
Gross domestic income (GDI) and the statistical discrepancy
• For 2011–2013, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent; in the previously
published estimates, real GDI had increased at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent. From the
fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of
2.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDI had increased at an average annual
rate of 2.1 percent.
• The statistical discrepancy is current-dollar GDP less current-dollar GDI. GDP measures final
expenditures -- the sum of consumer spending, private investment, net exports, and government
spending. GDI measures the incomes earned in the production of GDP. In concept, GDP is
equal to GDI. In practice, they differ because they are estimated using different source data and
different methods.
• As a result of the annual revision, the statistical discrepancy as a percentage of GDP was revised
up from -0.3 percent to -0.2 percent for 2011, was revised down from -0.1 percent to -1.3 percent
for 2012, and was revised down from -0.8 percent to -1.3 percent for 2013.
- 7 -
8. New and revised source data
This annual revision incorporated data from the following major federal statistical sources:
Source Data Agency Data
Years Covered by Data and
Vintage of Data
Census Bureau
Annual surveys of merchant wholesale trade 2011 (revised)
2012 (new)
Annual surveys of retail trade
Monthly indicators of manufactures, merchant wholesale
trade, and retail trade
2011–2013 (revised)
Service annual survey 2011 and 2012 (revised)
2013 (new)
Annual surveys of state and local government finances Fiscal year (FY) 2011 (revised)
FY 2012 (new)
Monthly survey of construction spending (value put in
place)
2011–2013 (revised)
Quarterly services survey 2011–2013 (revised)
Current population survey/housing vacancy survey 2011 and 2012 (revised)
2013 (new)
Office of Management and
Budget
Federal Budget FY 2013 and 2014 (revised)
Internal Revenue Service
Tabulations of tax returns for corporations 2011 (revised)
2012 (new)
Tabulations of tax returns for sole proprietorships and
partnerships
2012 (new)
BLS
Quarterly census of employment and wages 2011–2013 ( revised)
Survey of occupational employment 2012 (new)
Department of Agriculture Farm statistics 2011–2013 (revised)
BEA International transactions accounts 1999–2013 (revised)
Changes in methodology and presentation
The annual revision also incorporated improvements to estimating methodologies and to the
presentation of the NIPA estimates, including the following:
• Beginning with the estimates for 1999, the presentation of foreign transactions in the NIPAs is
changed to reflect the comprehensive restructuring of BEA's international transactions accounts
(ITAs), released in June. The new presentation of both goods and services in the foreign
transactions tables is consistent with the corresponding items in the ITAs. The definition of
exports and imports of travel is broadened to include travel for health and for education and
expenditures by short-term workers; these services had previously been included in the exports
and imports of "other" private services. The new presentation of foreign transactions enhances
the quality and the usefulness of BEA's international accounts statistics and brings them into
closer alignment with new international statistical guidelines.
• The presentation of the pension sector is expanded to include a table of transactions of defined
contribution pension plans and a table that presents transactions of both defined benefit and
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9. defined contribution pension plans. (Tables presenting the transactions associated with defined
benefit pension plans were introduced in last year's comprehensive revision.)
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- August 28, 2014 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2014 (Preliminary Estimate)
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10. Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: "Advance" estimates, based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, are released near the end of the first
month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available, "second" and
"third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively. The "latest" estimates
reflect the results of the 2013 comprehensive revision; the results of the 2014 annual revision will be incorporated
at a later date.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger than
the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA's latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
[Annual rates]
Vintages
compared
Average Average without
regard to sign
Standard deviation of
revisions without regard
to sign
Current-dollar GDP
Advance to second.... 0.2 0.5 0.4
Advance to third........ .2 .7 .4
Second to third........... .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest....... .3 1.3 1.0
Real GDP
Advance to second..... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third......... .1 .6 .4
Second to third............ .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest........ .3 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2010.
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