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THE SKY IS THE LIMIT
     WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT ?




                                                                                          Michael Peeters, Wireline CTO
                                                                                   FTTH Council München, February 2012




v1
                              COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                  ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
THE SKY IS THE LIMIT
 BECAUSE WE CANNOT SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

 The 3 things we expect will drive technology

 1.  Sharing the cost
 2.  Saturating bandwidth demand
 3.  Flexibility, but not at any cost




v1
                                  COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                      ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
FLEXIBILITY
IN COST ALLOCATION
                     PTP                                                                                     PON
•  Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per                      •  Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per
   dedicated Mb/s                                                        subscriber
•  Valid for smaller deployments with short loops                     •  Favored for higher peak bandwidths
                                                                      •  Valid for all deployments
                                                                      •  Strongly preferred for large COs, longer loops

                          Share&WW&Broadband&Subscriber&Additions&
                                        (Dell'Oro)
                     100%

                      80%
                                                                                             PON
                      60%                                                                    Ethernet/Other
                      40%                                                                    VDSL
                                                                                             ADSL/SHDSL
                      20%
                                                                                             Cable>modem
                        0%
                            2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

                                           COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                               ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
BANDWIDTH
IS NO LONGER THE CAPTAIN
   2010                           2015                                                       2020
 GPON has enough bandwidth for FTTH beyond 2020
                               GPON




                                                                                                                 • Lower power dissipation
                                                                                                                 • Symmetrical bandwidth
                                                                                                                 • Resiliency at lower cost
                                        10G PON




                                                                                                                 • ONU evolution
                                                                                                                 • Reduced opex
                           TWDM PON-
Drivers for 10G PON        ready ONU
•  FTTB/DSLAM
•  FTTBusiness                                  NGPON2 (40G PON)
•  More bandwidth at                 (Plan)
   same cost as GPON                    Drivers for NGPON2
   (not yet foreseeable)                •  More bandwidth for FTTB/
                                           DSLAM/Business
                                        •  CO consolidation


• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for 10G PON are low volume                                                      Market needs are:
                                                                                                             •  Bandwidth-independent
• Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for NGPON2 are speculative                                                      •  More customer-specific


                                           COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                               ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
NGPON2 TRADE-OFFS
                  40G TDM PON                                            λ-stacked XG-PON                               One λ per subscriber
                   “XLG-PON”                                               “TWDM PON”                                       WDM PON
                                                                                                                               40x1G down
                       40G down               ONU                                    4x10G down        ONU                                      ONU
                                              ONU                                                      ONU                                      ONU
                 OLT                                                     OLT                                             OLT
                                              ONU                                                      ONU                                      ONU
                        10G up                ONU                                      4x2.5G up       ONU                                      ONU
                                    No      -agility req’d                                             -agile, 4   s             40x1G up      -agile, 40   s
ODN




                                                                                                                        Non-compatible, less flexible.
                          Backwards-compatible, power-splitting                                                        Loss ~insensitive to split ratio.

   Bandwidth                 More on-demand bandwidth
                                                                                                                            Symmetrical bandwidth

                  Higher risk in 2015                                       Lower risk in 2015                              Higher risk in 2015
Implementation




                              Higher speed components
                   •  In the short run, higher speed components cost more, but reduce over time

                                                                    More components and higher complexity
                   •  Over time, cost will be determined by the no. of components and complexity

                         COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                         ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
NGPON2 COST EVOLUTION
QUALITATIVE PICTURE
   If we needed NGPON2 today:
   • XLG-PON would be the most expensive: cost of 40G components and higher optical power
   • TWDM PON would the lowest cost: leverages existing XG-PON technology




                                                                                                                       Cost cross-over between XLG-
                                                                                                                       PON and TWDM-PON
           Cost%per%subscriber




                                                                                                                        WDM$PON
                                                                                                                        TWDM)PON
                                                                                                                        XLG)PON


                                                                                                                       At some point in the future:
                                                         Time                                                          •  XLG-PON will be the least
                                                                                                                          expensive: fewest components,
                                                                                                                          lowest complexity
                                                                      Point for BW per
                                 Today                                lambda shift ?
                                                                             6
                                                     COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                                         ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
TRANSITION SCENARIO
TWO GENERATIONS IN ONE
                                                                           XG-PON
                                                                                                10G down
                                                                                                            ONU
•  Day 1: XG-PON with           -agile ONUs:                                      OLT
                                                                                                            ONU
                                                                                                  2.5G up
                                                                                                            -agile, 4   s




•  Future evolution to 40G PON                                             40G -TWDM-PON
  -  Replace XG-PON OLT line card TWDM-                                                       4x10G down    ONU
     PON line card with 4- capability
                                                                                                            ONU
  -  Existing ONUs tune to correct                                                OLT
                                                                                                            ONU
                                                                                                            ONU
                                                                                                4x2.5G up
                                                                                                            -agile, 4   s




                                                               7
                                       COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                           ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
THE FORK IN THE ROAD
 AND THE PATH FORWARD


  40G/10G                  XLG$PON(                              TWDM(PON(                                          WDM(PON(
    Capacity(




                Drivers:                                  Drivers:                                                  Drivers:
                •  Ultimately the lowest cost,            •  Lowest risk for 2015                                   •  Large scale FTTBusiness:
                   but highest risk for 2015                 volume deployment                                         ≥1 Gb/s dedicated
                   volume deployment                      •  Transition from existing                                  symmetrical bandwidth
                •  Highest OLT port density                  XG-PON deployments                                        (high peak bandwidths not
                •  Legacy ODN compatibility               •  Legacy ODN compatibility                                  important)
                                                                                                                    •  SuperPONs (ultra-long
                                                                                                                       reach/ultra-high split)
 10G/2.5G                                                            XG$PON(



2.5G/1.25G                                                              GPON(
                                                                          8
                                                  COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
                                      ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION

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Active Technologies, The Sky is the limit

  • 1. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT ? Michael Peeters, Wireline CTO FTTH Council München, February 2012 v1 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 2. THE SKY IS THE LIMIT BECAUSE WE CANNOT SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON The 3 things we expect will drive technology 1.  Sharing the cost 2.  Saturating bandwidth demand 3.  Flexibility, but not at any cost v1 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 3. FLEXIBILITY IN COST ALLOCATION PTP PON •  Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per •  Favored if Figure of Merit is lowest cost per dedicated Mb/s subscriber •  Valid for smaller deployments with short loops •  Favored for higher peak bandwidths •  Valid for all deployments •  Strongly preferred for large COs, longer loops Share&WW&Broadband&Subscriber&Additions& (Dell'Oro) 100% 80% PON 60% Ethernet/Other 40% VDSL ADSL/SHDSL 20% Cable>modem 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 4. BANDWIDTH IS NO LONGER THE CAPTAIN 2010 2015 2020 GPON has enough bandwidth for FTTH beyond 2020 GPON • Lower power dissipation • Symmetrical bandwidth • Resiliency at lower cost 10G PON • ONU evolution • Reduced opex TWDM PON- Drivers for 10G PON ready ONU •  FTTB/DSLAM •  FTTBusiness NGPON2 (40G PON) •  More bandwidth at (Plan) same cost as GPON Drivers for NGPON2 (not yet foreseeable) •  More bandwidth for FTTB/ DSLAM/Business •  CO consolidation • Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for 10G PON are low volume Market needs are: •  Bandwidth-independent • Non-FTTH bandwidth drivers for NGPON2 are speculative •  More customer-specific COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 5. NGPON2 TRADE-OFFS 40G TDM PON λ-stacked XG-PON One λ per subscriber “XLG-PON” “TWDM PON” WDM PON 40x1G down 40G down ONU 4x10G down ONU ONU ONU ONU ONU OLT OLT OLT ONU ONU ONU 10G up ONU 4x2.5G up ONU ONU No -agility req’d -agile, 4 s 40x1G up -agile, 40 s ODN Non-compatible, less flexible. Backwards-compatible, power-splitting Loss ~insensitive to split ratio. Bandwidth More on-demand bandwidth Symmetrical bandwidth Higher risk in 2015 Lower risk in 2015 Higher risk in 2015 Implementation Higher speed components •  In the short run, higher speed components cost more, but reduce over time More components and higher complexity •  Over time, cost will be determined by the no. of components and complexity COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 6. NGPON2 COST EVOLUTION QUALITATIVE PICTURE If we needed NGPON2 today: • XLG-PON would be the most expensive: cost of 40G components and higher optical power • TWDM PON would the lowest cost: leverages existing XG-PON technology Cost cross-over between XLG- PON and TWDM-PON Cost%per%subscriber WDM$PON TWDM)PON XLG)PON At some point in the future: Time •  XLG-PON will be the least expensive: fewest components, lowest complexity Point for BW per Today lambda shift ? 6 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 7. TRANSITION SCENARIO TWO GENERATIONS IN ONE XG-PON 10G down ONU •  Day 1: XG-PON with -agile ONUs: OLT ONU 2.5G up -agile, 4 s •  Future evolution to 40G PON 40G -TWDM-PON -  Replace XG-PON OLT line card TWDM- 4x10G down ONU PON line card with 4- capability ONU -  Existing ONUs tune to correct OLT ONU ONU 4x2.5G up -agile, 4 s 7 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION
  • 8. THE FORK IN THE ROAD AND THE PATH FORWARD 40G/10G XLG$PON( TWDM(PON( WDM(PON( Capacity( Drivers: Drivers: Drivers: •  Ultimately the lowest cost, •  Lowest risk for 2015 •  Large scale FTTBusiness: but highest risk for 2015 volume deployment ≥1 Gb/s dedicated volume deployment •  Transition from existing symmetrical bandwidth •  Highest OLT port density XG-PON deployments (high peak bandwidths not •  Legacy ODN compatibility •  Legacy ODN compatibility important) •  SuperPONs (ultra-long reach/ultra-high split) 10G/2.5G XG$PON( 2.5G/1.25G GPON( 8 COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ALCATEL-LUCENT — INTERNAL PROPRIETARY — USE PURSUANT TO COMPANY INSTRUCTION