More of the same, i.e. bandwidth, is not going to help us cross the gap to FTTH. As others at FTTH Council 2012 Munich have pointed out, there are other aspects of FTTH that we should focus on. This is our view. Authors: Michael Peeters, Ana Pesovic & Ed Harstead

1. BUILDING EFFICIENT
NETWORKS
Dr. Ir. Michael Peeters, CTO Wireline Division
FTTH Council Münich, February 2012
1
1
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

2. A MAP OF CAPEXIA DOWNSTREAM SUSTAINED BANDWIDTH (Mbps)
Small screen data High Speed data Entertainment video
hinterland
Valley of the
Satellite Black
Swans
Swamps Icy Heights
Mobile
of
Wastelands
DENSITY (HH/KM2)
Capexia
of Macros Council’
s
Promis
AlcaLu Copper Mining
ed
Co. Land
urban
“Mordor”
2016
2014
2012
2018
2020
2
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

3. OVERVIEW
1. ON THE ROAD TO DIGITAL WORLD
2. REQUIREMENTS FOR NETWORK TRANSFORMATION
3. KEY ELEMENTS FOR BUILDING EFFICIENT NETWORKS
4. BENEFITS FOR THE OPERATORS AND END-USERS
3
3
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

4. EMPOWERING A SMARTER WORLD
NETWORKS ARE HELPING, TODAY
PON or P2P ADSL2+
100+ Mb/s ~10-20 Mb/s
FTTH
VDSL2
~30 Mb/s
VDSL2 bonding VDSL2
~60 Mb/s ~30 Mb/s
CENTRAL
OFFICE
FTTN
FTTB
or FTTC
Mobile VDSL2 & vectoring
VDSL2 vectoring ~50-100 Mb/s
~100 Mb/s
4
4
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

5. TRANSFORMATION IS HAPPENING
SIGNALS EVERYWHERE
CONSUMER BUSINESS SOCIETY
? BE READY
• HD TV, 3D TV • Cloud computing • e-health •We can’t predict the future
• Video streaming • Remote back-up • e-government •Based on experience and
• Any service on any device • Large file-sharing • e-education common sense, we know we
• Multiscreen video • Mobility • Smart energy have to be prepared
• FMC • Teleworking • Local community
• Video communication • Security • Universal broadband •What did we see 15 years
ago ?
• Video communication
BANDWIDTH APPLICATIONS
5
5
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

6. IT'S VIDEO…
Fix BB users [M]
37% of internet traffic
during primetime
is online video
600
300
2007 2011 2015
Users Devices Video
680M fixed BB users x 1.2 billion IP-enabled x ~ 70% of internet
by 2015 devices by 2014 traffic by 2014
… DRIVING SUSTAINABLE INCREASE IN NETWORK CONSUMPTION
6
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Sources: Bell Labs analysis

7. SO WHAT ABOUT THE NETWORK?
FASTER, BIGGER AND MORE…OF THE SAME ?
Bandwidth Latency Security Reliability
Differentiated QoS
Each person 2 devices + each household 4 TVs + each room 8 sensors, used for 5 purposes
7
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

8. LEADING TO 3 IMPERATIVES
FOR THE NETWORK
SCALABLE BANDWIDTH
… at the lowest cost per bit
EMBEDDED INTELLIGENCE
… to enable differentiated services
SUSTAINABILITY
… for eco and cost effectiveness
ONE ALL-IP CONVERGED NETWORK
OPTIMIZED FOR MASSIVE VIDEO DELIVERY
8
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

9. SCALABLE ACCESS BANDWIDTH
AT LOWER COST PER BIT
FLEXIBIL FUTURE
CAPEX OPEX
ITY PROOF
• Passive network • Networks are not • Technology and business
homogeneous models are changing
• Incremental cost • Don’t lock into • Design your network so
per home technology or that you can change it
deployment type easily
• CO consolidation •To reach everybody
you will need flexibility
LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE
9
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

10. EMBEDDED INTELLIGENCE
FOR NEW GENERATION OF SERVICES
FROM
3-PLAY
Vertically integrated networks Inadequate architecture for
“silos” “Best effort” mode
massive video streaming
Distribute IP Service Edge Add Service Intelligence
• Content closer to the subs (on-net CDN)
TO NEXT GEN. • Lower over-subscription rates
• Enable policy-based control
• Boost sustained IP flow rate per sub
SERVICES, • Enable transition to IPv6 • Offload wireless traffic
NEXT GEN.
DEPLOYMENT
&
OPERATIONS IP ROUTER ACCESS END-USER
10
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

11. SUSTAINABILITY
WILL BECOME A GIVEN
Smart Grids
Smart Smart
Huge Opportunity Communitie Buildings
s
Reinvent scalable networks that Smart
Transportation E-
 Maximize energy-efficiency Health
 Reduce total-cost-of-ownership
2007: 2020:
ICT contributes 2% to ICT can offset 5x its own
global GHG carbon footprint
Power
Passive
efficient
networks
elements
• New generation of chipsets By 2015, demonstrate
• No active equipment in OSP
• Passively cooled remotes architectures and technologies
• Smart digging
• Increased density that yield a 1000-fold
• Duct sharing
• NG PON improvement in network
efficiency
11
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

12. A MAP OF CAPEXIA DOWNSTREAM SUSTAINED BANDWIDTH (Mbps)
Small screen data High Speed data Entertainment video
hinterland
Valley of the
Satellite Black
Swans
Swamps Icy Heights
Mobile
of
Wastelands
DENSITY (HH/KM2)
Capexia
of Macros Council’
s
Promis
AlcaLu Copper Mining
ed
Co. Land
urban
“Mordor”
2016
2014
2012
2018
2020
12
COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.